Exclusive Interview: Tesla Energy - The Tidal Wave Ready to Break ⚡️

They're one of the players, they're one of the leading players in the Western markets, but there's still a lot of potential for other players to come to you on top, or simply for Tesla to run away with things and be the all-out leader. Tesla's been the most ambitious in terms of its production capacity plans, so that really does set them in quite a good position for taking some level of market dominance or leadership in the US and Western markets.

他们是其中一家玩家，是西方市场的领先玩家之一，但仍有很多潜力让其他玩家超过他们，或者Tesla独占鳌头成为领导者。Tesla在生产能力计划方面的雄心勃勃确实使他们处于在美国和西方市场占据市场支配地位或领导地位的有利位置。

Today you're going to hear from Iola Hughes, the research manager at Roe Motion. Roe is a research house and consultancy in London, set up about five years ago, and Iola has been there for four of them. They provide data and market analysis focused on the EV battery and energy storage markets, and even things like charging, recycling, and EV motors. Their team of 30 is growing quickly around the globe with analysts in places like China, Korea, and others. Iola and I eased into the conversation, so hopefully everyone can follow along, use the timestamps if you would like. Please consider dropping an early like to say thank you to Iola for making the time for us, and you know I'd appreciate it too. Enjoy.

今天，你将要听取来自Roe Motion的研究经理Iola Hughes的发言。Roe是一个位于伦敦的研究机构和咨询公司，成立约五年，而Iola已在公司工作了四年。他们提供针对电动汽车电池和能源储存市场的数据和市场分析，甚至包括充电、回收和电动机等。他们的团队拥有30名分析师，已经快速在全球范围内扩展，并在中国、韩国等地设有分析师。本次访谈中，Iola和我轻松进入了谈话，希望大家能跟上，如果需要，可以使用时间戳。请考虑提前点赞，以感谢Iola抽出时间来接受我们的访问，并且你知道我也会感激的。愉快地进行访谈吧。

It's time to get right into it. Can you just give us a quick overview of some of the main use cases and applications for battery storage and maybe touch specifically on the software side because I think that's where some people may not be as informed?

现在该正式开始了。你能给我们快速概述一下电池储能的一些主要用途和应用吗？如果可以的话，特别是涉及软件方面的内容，因为我觉得有些人对此可能不是很了解。

Yeah, absolutely. So I mean, the kind of use cases for stationary storage are really quite wide and quite versatile. So when we think about storage, we broadly kind of classify into two key areas. So on one side, you have kind of grid storage, which is front of the meter, and then the other side you have behind the meter storage.

是的，完全正确。所以，静止储能的使用案例非常广泛，十分多样化。在我们考虑储存时，我们通常会将其分为两个关键领域。一方面是电网储存，也就是“前端”，另一方面是用电户内储存，也就是“后端”。

So firstly on the grid side of the market, here you kind of have two key places where storage is being installed. So the first one is renewable pad storage. So say solar farm or wind farm and directly connecting battery storage to sit alongside that generation assets. The other side of grid storage is basically connected to transmission or distribution networks, and these operate more as kind of a standalone system. And they get involved in a number of different different applications on the grid and serve the grid in a number of different ways.

首先，在市场的电网方面，你可以看到两个关键的储能安装位置。第一个是可再生能源存储，例如太阳能或风力发电厂，并直接连接电池储能设备以与该发电资产放置在一起。电网储能的另一面基本上是连接到传输或分配网络，这些储能设备作为一个独立系统运作。它们参与电网的多种应用，并以多种不同的方式为电网服务。

And then on the other side of the market, you have behind the meter applications. These tend to be smaller batteries, and this encompasses everything from residential, solar and storage. So anyone installing say kind of power in their home, all the way through to things like telecoms, backup power, data centers using UPS, hospitals, using backup power, factory lines. So really there is quite a wide range of applications within that area.

在市场的另一侧，您会发现“表计后”应用程序。这些通常是较小的电池，它包括从住宅、太阳能储能到各种应用。这意味着任何想在家里安装能源设备的人，甚至是像电信、备用电源、使用UPS的数据中心、使用备用电源的医院和工厂生产线等等。因此，在该领域内有相当广泛的应用范围。

In terms of the software, I guess maybe the way that a lot of the market works is, so I mean, primarily what you've got in a system is in battery cells. Often these are, you know, bought in from someone else. So some of the big players in this market, they tend to be called integrators because they're people who kind of take cells and put them into packs and then sell them in systems. So for example, like Tesla's.

就软件而言，我想很多市场的运作方式是这样的。主要的系统部件是电池组件，通常这些组件是从其他公司购买的。所以市场上一些大的玩家被称为集成商，因为他们会将电池组件组装成电池组，然后将其销售给其他系统供应商。比如像特斯拉这样的公司。

So essentially, people who are manufacturing cells, these then get supplied to integrators. So this could be a player like Tesla or a player like Florence, who are essentially taking these kind of racks of cells or batteries and putting them into a larger unit and then selling on. And that's where they're kind of doing a lot of the software work. So, you know, managing the BMS, the battery management system, and ensuring that everything works in a kind of larger system.

简而言之，制造电池的人将这些电池提供给集成商。这可能是像特斯拉或佛罗伦萨这样的参与者，他们基本上是将这些电池或电池架放入更大的装置中，然后再出售。这就是他们所做的大部分软件工作，管理BMS（电池管理系统）并确保一切在更大的系统中正常运行。

And then the kind of the next change part of the supply chain, the integrator, the developers. So these are the people who are maybe purchasing systems from someone like Tesla or someone like Florence and then installing them in the ground and managing that asset once you're at one's dessert in the ground.

接下来，供应链的另一个重要组成部分是整合商和开发人员。这些人可能会从像特斯拉或弗洛伦斯这样的公司购买系统，并将它们安装在地面上，管理这些资产，使其有效地发挥作用。

You do have quite a few players who are getting involved in kind of all three parts of this supply chain. So Tesla operates primarily in kind of integrator space. So then the people who are purchasing cells from elsewhere and then integrating them into a system. But you have other players who are, you know, building cells and building systems. So a lot of the Chinese players, for example, CZL, they produce their in cells, but then they also produce systems as well.

你确实拥有很多参与这个供应链的玩家。特斯拉主要运营于整合者领域，也就是从其他地方购买电池，并将其整合到系统中的人们。但是，你还有其他生产电池和系统的玩家。例如，中国的很多玩家，如中航锂电，他们不仅生产自己的电池，还同时生产系统。

And then you have some players who are involved in the developer space as well. So probably the biggest one there is LG, so LG, they produce their in cells. They also produce their in systems and they acquired a company called NEC. I think it was about a year ago and they're involved in the kind of developer space as well. So kind of across all three parts of that supply chain.

然后，你还有一些玩家也参与开发者领域。其中最大的一个可能是LG，他们生产他们自己的屏幕，也生产他们自己的系统，并收购了一个叫NEC的公司。我想这是大约一年前的事了，他们也参与着开发者领域的活动。所以他们跨越了那个供应链的三个部分。

Okay. So do you have a simple quick rule of thumb for the behind the meter front of the meter? Because I've seen many different explanations of what that means.

好的。那么你有一个简单快速的方法来区分“户内后方”和“电表前方”吗？因为我看到很多不同的解释。 （注：“户内后方”和“电表前方”是指不同类型的电力服务，前者指家庭或企业自己安装的太阳能、风能等发电设备；后者指由电力公司供给并计量的电能。）

Yeah. I mean, generally the way that we consider. it is in front of the meter or grid is kind of directly connected into the transmission grid. So the idea there is being it really is supplying the electricity, the wider electricity grid and being part of integrating to that. With the behind the meter applications, these can often operate more as a, who is like a localized microgrid. So they're not necessarily interacting with the wider electricity grid. Is the kind of key differentiator there. And then one of the big things is is generally size. So for grid applications, you're generally looking at a lot larger batteries than what you see on the behind the meter slide. Gotcha. Okay. Thanks for that. So is it fair to say that replacing peaker plants is one of the primary, if not the primary application for battery storage right now? Or are we seeing a much wider use case than just that?

是的，一般来说我们考虑的方式是，前端或电网连接到传输电网。因此，其想法是确实提供电力，为更广泛的电力网络做出贡献并与之集成。对于后端的应用来说，它们通常更像是本地微电网，不一定与更广泛的电力网络互动。这是它们之间的关键区别。另外一个重要的因素是通常的电池大小。对于电网应用，你通常会看到比后端应用中更大的电池。 明白了，谢谢。那么，目前电池存储最主要的应用是替代峰谷电厂吗？还是我们看到了比这更广泛的用例？

So it's definitely one of the applications. Probably the big things now and particularly in the US market, one of the big kind of drivers for storage in the last few years has been storage was eligible for an investment power spreader when it was paired with solar. So the majority of storage being installed was being installed directly connected to solar farms. So the real kind of primary application there is more on the energy arbitrage size. So essentially, you know, if you can charge up your battery, you can basically sell it back to the red when prices are the highest and make the most money out of it. So that being one of the big ones and then also just, you know, providing resiliency for those renewable assets and ensuring that you can supply to the grid for a longer period of time. So, yeah, probably the biggest one right now is really just around how can we make the most money and the economic case, if that's there, then people are going to install batteries. The peaker plant area is definitely a big growing market. And in some regions in particular, that's really being considered as a good future option.

因此，储能应用肯定是其中之一。在美国市场，近年来，储能与太阳能捆绑使用时有资格获得投资权力扩展器，这是储能的主要驱动力之一。因此，大部分安装的储能系统都是直接连接到太阳能发电站。因此，其主要应用领域更多地涉及能源套利。如果能够充电，那么在价格最高的时候，您就可以将电池出售回网络并获得最大的收益。这是其中的一个主要应用，也可以提供可再生能源资产的弹性，确保您可以更长时间地向电网供电。因此，目前最大的应用领域实际上就在于如何赚更多钱以及经济的前景，如果存在，人们就会安装电池。峰值动力厂领域肯定是一个快速增长的市场，在某些地区尤其被认为是未来的好选择。

So in the Australian market, for example, they have quite ambitious plans for kind of phase down of coal plants and phase down gas plants. And a lot of facilities that were previously coal plants or gas plants, the plan is to once these get decommissioned or in the process of decommissioning them to install batteries kind of in situ there, the idea being you already have good connection in place. And it, you know, brings down the cost some lots of, you know, rather than finding a new site and building the whole grid connection, you've kind of, you can skip that step.

例如在澳大利亚市场，他们有着相当雄心勃勃的计划来逐步淘汰燃煤电厂和燃气电厂。在此之前，许多燃煤和燃气电站都将进行退役，或正在进行退役，计划是在现场安装电池。其想法是，你已经有了良好的连接，而这降低了成本，省去了在新地点建设整个电网连接的许多麻烦。

Gotcha. Okay. So you mentioned the inflation reduction act. It's been talked about ad nauseam, ads of late, but for good reason. So can you maybe give us a simple explanation of the difference between the investment tax credit and the producer tax credit because I think these get conflated fairly often.

好的，你提到了通货膨胀减少法案。最近一直在谈论它，但理由充分。你能否简单解释一下投资税收抵免和生产者税收抵免之间的区别呢？我觉得这两者经常混淆。

Yeah. So firstly on the the ITC, the investment tax credit side of things. So this is something which has been in place for a number of years. And what the IRA did was essentially kind of extended it and also expanded it. So the ITC, which was in place historically was for solar and also for storage paired with solar. So essentially what it does is it provides money for, you know, the upfront cap extents of the installation. So you're providing a discount for the developer to install a project.

首先谈谈投资税收抵免（ITC）这个方面。ITC已经实施多年了。什么是IRA所做的事情，本质上是延长了ITC的实施时间，并对其进行了扩大。历史上ITC的实施范围仅限于太阳能发电，以及与之配套的储能系统。它的作用是为企业提供资金，补贴安装项目的前期资金支出，为开发商提供安装项目的折扣。

What it did with the extension, essentially you've extended that for another five years. So kind of out to 2025, 2020, seven projects can get access to this. And what it does as well was expanded to include standalone storage assets. So no longer did the battery storage have to be installed next to a solar farm. So that really expands the number of applications, which the battery can get involved in. It also, you know, opens up new business dreams of revenue and it's quite promising for developers.

基本上，它对扩展所做的是让其再延长五年的时间。所以到2025年，七个项目可以获得这个扩展。此外，它还扩大了囊括独立存储资产的范围。因此，电池存储不再只能安装在太阳能电站旁边，这就非常扩大了电池所能参与的应用领域。它还为开发者打开了全新的收益商业计划，非常有前途。

In terms of kind of the amount of money you can get there, it's pretty significant as well. So as a baseline, essentially you have a 30% capex kind of saving. And then there's kind of add-ons you can get which bring that up to a 50% if you need certain requirements such as you know building an area where economic is not as economic strong or there's a brownfield site or is a basically an area which previously had fossil fuel industry is kind of acting there. So there's a lot of money to kind of get to just on the installation side. And on the back of that we've seen quite a lot of projects being announced or more projects coming through in the US market in the last few months.

在金钱方面，这里可以获得的金额相当可观。基本上，您可以节省30%的资本支出。此外，如果您需要满足某些特定的要求，例如在经济不太繁荣的区域建造，或者是在前石油工业区域建设，或者是在有着化石燃料工业历史的地方建造，您还可以获得额外的附加值，将节约金额提高到50%。因此在安装方面，可以获得很多资金。在此基础上，我们在过去几个月中看到了很多项目的宣布或更多项目在美国市场上推出。

On the other side of the picture you have the production tax credit. So this is really more focused on the actually kind of manufacturing of batteries and manufacturing of systems. So there's two parts to it. So on one side you have the for the battery cell production. So this is a $35 per kilowatt hour kind of credit. And then on top of that there is a $10 per kilowatt hour for pack assembly.

在这张图片的另一面，你有生产税收抵免。因此，这实际上更加注重电池和系统的制造。所以它有两个部分。一方面，你有针对电池单体产量的税收抵免，这是35美元每千瓦时的抵免。然后在此基础之上，还有每千瓦时10美元的组装包的税收抵免。

So with this part essentially we've seen a lot of kind of excitement around particulars $10 parts. So I mean using Tesar as an example so they purchase cells from CETL for their mega packs but they're purchasing cells and they then assemble them into their own packs. So essentially they can tap into that $10 part of the production tax credit and get access to that.

因此，我们可以看到在 $10 零部件上有很多热情。以 Tesar 公司为例，他们从 CETL 公司购买电池组装到自己公司生产的大容量电池组件中。这样他们就可以利用生产税收抵免中的 $10 零部件，并获得相应的减税优惠。

I think the idea down the line is of course you know get into the cell side of things as well and then you can get that $35 as well. But definitely in the in the last few months we've seen a whole lot of activity from energy storage players in the US market. Both from the cell side so we're seeing quite a few dedicated energy storage cell facilities or gigafactories being set up.

我认为未来的想法当然是要涉足细胞方面，然后你也可以赚取那35美元。但是在过去几个月中，我们在美国市场上看到了许多能源存储公司的活动。从电池方面来看，我们看到了不少专门的能源存储电池生产设施或者超级工厂正在建设中。

But we're also seeing quite a lot more assembly and system assembly being set up as well as announcements to move into into packs. So quite an interesting one being fluent. They do they historically they've just kind of done their bought packs from elsewhere and done just a system assembly.

我们还看到越来越多的组装和系统组装正在建立，以及宣布转向打包业务。这是一个相当有趣的现象。Fluent一直以来只是从其他地方购买打包产品并进行系统组装。

So done really the the park conversion systems and the BMS and build the finished finished system. But they announced that in their use officer to see they're going to be getting into doing the packs as well. So you know tap into that $10 part as everyone really wants to.

完成公园转换系统和BMS的建设，建造完整系统。但他们宣布，他们的使用官员看到他们也要开始做电池组成套件。所以你知道，他们将利用这个10美元的市场，因为每个人都非常想要它。

Awesome. So is it accurate to say then that when an if Tesla chooses to use those 4680 cells from Austin or Akado road in the United States then they would be eligible for the full $45 per kilowatt hour credit for like the mega pack specifically. Yeah absolutely.

很棒。那么，如果特斯拉选择使用位于美国奥斯汀或阿卡多路的那些4680电池，那么他们将有资格像Mega Pack一样获得每千瓦时45美元的完整税收抵免额，这样说是否准确呢？是的，绝对正确。

I mean with with the the cells coming out of KTRA Road you know wherever they go with they end up an EV or stationary they're going to be able to get those production tax credits. So you know right now they don't really care where those batteries are going to end up because they're going to happen to those credits.

我的意思是，就算从KTRA Road出来的电池走到哪里，最终成为电动汽车或静止电源，其生产过程中都可以得到生产税收抵免。所以他们现在并不关心这些电池最终会被用在哪里，因为他们能得到这些抵免。

I think you know at some point you know either expanding that line or getting into LFP production as well which is is really the chemistry of choice for storage right now. It would make sense to maybe move away from C8L's supplier so they can access those tax credits as well.

我认为你知道，在某个时候，你要么拓展这条线路，要么也要开始生产LFP电池，这是目前储存电力的最佳选择。也许离开C8L的供应商会有意义，这样他们也可以获得税收抵免。

So are there any caps on what a company like Tesla can earn with these tax credits? There doesn't seem to be a cap in that sense. So yeah I mean some of the figures that have been thrown around in terms of what what these gigafactory factories are going to be getting just on like an annualized basis are pretty massive.

那么像特斯拉这样的公司通过这些税收抵免能够获得的收益是否有上限？在这个意义上似乎没有上限。所以，是的，我指的是关于这些 Gigafactory 工厂每年可能获得的一些数字非常庞大。

So yeah no real upper limit there to the amount of money they'll be receiving. Of course kind of policy can change and things can can change down the line but yeah right now it's you know if you can produce the cells you're going to get the good amount of money.

嗯，所以他们将获得的资金金额没有真正的上限。当然，这种政策可以改变，而且事情也可以改变，但现在如果你能产生细胞，你就会得到不少的钱。

Okay awesome. So is it also true then that the numbers that are given in the inflationary reduction act like from the budgeting side those aren't really calves those are just kind of estimates. So if there are enough qualifying projects the numbers could exceed those.

太好了。那么，通货膨胀缩减法案中给出的数字并不是真正的限制，而只是一种估计。因此，如果有足够的符合条件的项目，这些数字可能会超过预期。

Yeah absolutely and we actually did some analysis on that in terms of you know that that figure that was was put out I think was around 370 billion. We did some kind of back the envelope calculations on that in terms of what have been announced just for kind of the EV and battery markets and you know these these targets are exceeding the figures are exceeding by quite a lot and that's without even thinking about the other industries which are also going to benefit from the IRA so of course the solar industry is is a massive beneficiary as well and the production tax credit for the solar industry is also huge so you can tap into you know if you're producing wafers if you're producing ingots you can get certain amounts for each kilowatt you're producing as well so it's a big part of money but you know the figure that has been kind of put out maybe is is not quite as accurately high as it's going to be.

是的，我们实际上对此进行了一些分析，具体来说，就是关于这个数字，我认为是约3700亿美元。我们对此进行了一些粗略计算，考虑了已经公布的电动汽车和电池市场的目标，这些数字超出了预期很多，而且还没考虑到其他行业也会从IRA中获益。当然，太阳能行业也是一个巨大的受益者，而生产税收证券对太阳能行业也非常重要。因此，如果你正在生产晶片或锭子，你每生产一千瓦特可以获得一定的金额，这是一个很大的金额。虽然这是一个巨额资金，但是实际的数字可能没有被正确地高估。

Gotcha okay and then can you touch on the importance of the inflation reduction act now allowing these credit transfers and specifically how we have cash for credits that may be great for entities that have a tax liability but now this may be opened up to a much wider market with the direct pay option where you know maybe entities that don't have a tax liability can now benefit from the inflation reduction act in these credits.

好的，那么你能谈一下通胀减少法案的重要性吗，现在它允许这些信贷转移，并具体说明我们如何有现金换取信用，这对于有税务负担的实体可能非常好，但现在通过直接支付选项可能会开放给更广泛的市场，你知道，也许没有税务负担的实体现在可以从通胀减少法案中受益。

Yeah I think I think the big thing here being kind of the ability to access money sooner so rather having to go through the process of you know making a kind of tax reclaim you can kind of tap into these savings and get these direct payments sooner it does allow a lot more players to kind of benefit from them more immediately and also yeah access the market sooner.

我认为关键在于能够更快地获得资金，所以不必通过重新申报税款的流程，您可以利用这些储蓄，更快地获得这些直接支付，这确实使更多的人能够更快地受益，并且更早地进入市场。

Okay awesome so I hear a lot about the new you mentioned it earlier how you don't have to have these battery storage projects connected to renewable anymore so is that really a huge deal and can you kind of add some color into how big of a deal that is and maybe what rough percentage of projects now are moving forward that are not actually tied to a renewable source. I mean I don't have the I can maybe send you off with some some facts and you can you can add them in in terms of the the percentages that are un-peted but we're definitely going to see more of them going forward just because you know you can you can now access the tax credit without having to worry about pairing them.

太棒了，我之前听说了你提到的新技术，现在不必再将电池储能项目与可再生能源连接了。这真的很重要吗？你可以详细解释一下吗？也许能告诉我们有多少项目现在没有与可再生能源相关联。我没有确切的数据，但可以提供一些相关事实，您可以将其添加到百分比中。但我们可以肯定地说，以后会有更多这样的项目，因为现在您可以访问税收抵免，而不必担心它们的耦合。

It really just does open up the projects to a number of new revenue streams being kind of the main thing so I mean being able to install maybe where the grid is kind of the most congested so rather than an area where just where you have a solar farm you can look at areas in the grid or areas in the electricity network which maybe need kind of storage to help with with grid congestion can be very beneficial so that's probably the biggest thing just kind of tapping into new revenue streams and and then I mean there's a number of other services you can go involved in kind of like and salary services so just like balancing currency changes in in frequency or balancing voltage and that can can also do things so rather than you know in some cases where you need to do an upgrade to the grid you can instead install batteries there and that that could basically yeah help deal with some of the congestion and help us move some of that load which can be pretty beneficial as well.

这真的只是让项目向众多新的收入流开放，这是最主要的事情。这意味着能够安装在电网最拥挤的地区，所以不仅仅是在太阳能发电场的区域，你可以看看电网或电力网络中可能需要储存以帮助缓解拥挤的区域，这非常有益，这可能是最重要的事情，只是利用新的收入流。此外，还有许多其他服务可供参与，如平衡货币变化和频率或平衡电压等，这些也可以做一些事情，而无需对电网进行升级，而是可以安装电池，这样可以有效地处理一些拥挤问题，对于分担负荷也非常有益。

A lot of us in the Tesla community we are trying to like gauge what the market looks like a lot of people throw around the term unlimited total addressable market when it comes to battery storage and Tesla deploying the mega pack so a lot of us like we just try to get an understanding of okay what's being replaced what type of companies are looking to buy this product and things along those ones so.

在特斯拉社群中，我们很多人都试图了解市场形势。当涉及到电池储存和特斯拉部署超大容量电池组时，许多人会使用无限潜在市场这个术语。所以我们很多人都试图了解，这个产品正在替换哪些产品，哪些公司正在考虑购买它等等。

I mean I think I think peak plans is a good one to consider but probably one of the biggest indicators that we look at is more in in terms of thinking about however nervous being added to the grid so in in certain markets you have a bit more clarity around how this is going to behave so in China in particular they have pretty direct legislation in place now for storage so that comes in kind of different forms so each each province in China has its own kind of standard or levels that it sets but these tents are going to be between basically somewhere in the range of saying 10 to 15% off storage at a one to two hour duration with renewables so the idea being if you install 10 mega watts of solar you have to also install 10 to 15% of that as a battery with a one to our duration so if we just take 10% as kind of the baseline so 10 mega watts of solar you have to install one mega watt of battery storage and then with a one to our duration these tent actually be close to two out two out duration range so that means you know for every 10 mega watts of solar being installed in China you're having to install two mega watt hours of battery storage as well and these are kind of that's kind of like the baseline so you know each province has different targets here some provinces are saying four hour duration some provinces are going up to 20% but basically you can kind of almost see it quite clearly you know as China is ramping up renewable installations and this this this policy when you only can't stop clicked in the start of 2022 and we saw this market go crazy just because don't get requirements for battery storage to be installed as well so we we I don't think it's likely we'll see you know details of that clarity of you must install batteries to go alongside renewables in the US market but it does give a good sense of the sort of requirements that they they think are are needed in order to have proper integration of renewables on the grid and to ensure you you do have kind of a stable supply.

我的意思是我认为考虑Peak Plans是一个不错的选择，但我们最关注的指标之一可能更多地考虑到新加入电网的储能方面，在某些市场上，你对其运行情况会有更多的清晰了解。尤其是在中国，现在有相当直接的储能立法，它以不同形式表现出来，每个省份都有其自己的标准或等级，但这些标准通常会设置在在10-15%的储能水平，以1-2小时的时长存储与可再生能源搭配使用。也就是说，如果你安装了10兆瓦的太阳能电池，你必须再安装10-15%的储能电池作为备用，保持1小时左右的时长。如果我们以10%作为基线，安装10兆瓦的太阳能电池需要再安装1兆瓦的储能电池，时长需为1-2小时。这些储能标准也有可能接近2小时时间范围。因此，每安装10兆瓦的太阳能电池在中国你必须再安装2兆瓦时的储能电池以保持稳定供电。每个省份的目标有所不同，有些省份需要4小时的储能，有些省份需要达到20%。理解这些政策我们可以看得很清楚，随着中国的可再生能源不断增加，这种政策在2022年初实施后市场就开始疯狂了，因为要求安装储能电池的需要。我们不认为在美国市场上会像中国一样明确的规定使用太阳能电池需要同时安装电池，但它确实提供了一个良好的意义，即确保在电网中完整整合可再生能源的需求。

The other thing that we are seeing in China now as well is increasingly renewable farms are kind of banding together so so you have three solar farms located near to each other rather than each one installing their own individual storage asset what you'd actually have is just kind of one standalone storage asset but located near to all three of them and it would just be kind of the combined capacity of the three and that will kind of interact with all of them as well as the grid to provide kind of stability and and ensure those renewables. are operating probably okay

我们现在在中国看到的另一件事是，越来越多的可再生能源农场正在联合起来，例如，你有三个太阳能农场彼此相邻，而不是每个都安装自己的独立储能设备。你实际上会只有一个独立储能设备，但它会位于它们三个附近，并且就是三个的集合容量，这将与所有农场以及电网相互交互，以提供稳定性，确保这些可再生能源运行顺利。

you mentioned the short duration battery storage so what is the cutoff is it like the six hour duration where it then goes into long or how's that go so I mean it's a it's a it's a very hot debated topic I would say no one really has a clear definite decision of what long duration is I was at a conference few days ago and there was someone from the UK government there on kind of the he basically was like head of electricity storage for the government so I asked him he was talking about long duration so I was like so what does the UK government see as long duration and he avoided the question very well so I mean in general we would say that the long duration is typically you know beyond eight beyond 10 hours is when you start to get into longer duration batteries that's something that it's I would say it's not really there's no obvious kind of barrier for what is long duration and what is short duration there is almost no crossover so you may have something which is six hours which some people would classify that as kind of medium duration some would classify as short and what we're increasingly seeing is you know technology is kind of move along that scale as well so historically I mean even even say two years ago people tend to say for lithium-ion batteries four hours was really that the upper limit in terms of duration but but now we're increasingly seeing projects come through with six hours with eight hours in China I've seen even the 10 hour lithium ion battery projects so that duration kind of classification is being pushed as well so yeah I wouldn't say there's a clear clear number well that's interesting and honestly I all that makes me feel so much better because when I was looking into that I got so many different answers and I just got confused so I'm glad I'm not the only one yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah

你提到了短时期的电池储存，那么截止时间是多长时间呢？像六个小时这样进入长时间吗？这是一个非常有争议的话题，我认为没有人能够明确决定什么是长期的。几天前我参加了一次会议，英国政府派了一个人来负责电力储存，所以我问他英国政府如何定义长期，他巧妙地回避了这个问题。总的来说，我们认为长期通常是指超过8小时，超过10小时就进入更长的时间，但这并没有明确的界限。你可能有一些人认为6小时是中等时期，而有些人认为是短期的。我们越来越多地看到技术也在这个尺度上发展。历史上，即使是两年前，人们也认为对于锂离子电池，4个小时是持续时间的上限，但现在我们越来越多地看到有6个小时和8小时甚至10个小时的锂离子电池项目。因此，这种持续时间的分类也在不断推进，没有明确的数字。这很有趣，让我感到非常放心，因为当我研究这个问题时，我得到了很多不同的答案，感到很困惑，所以我很高兴不是唯一一个。

what about just real quick like use case differences for the short duration for long duration so for anybody watching Tesla MegaPacks are either two or four hour duration so pretty much on the short side but what are some of the use cases for that longer side when it comes to the duration yeah so I mean longer duration you're starting to look into more kind of seasonal use cases so I mean one of the big things being you know if you look at the variability of how wind or solar operates during the year and also energy demand during the year so I'm interested in the matter in the year so you know in the winter you're going to have lower generation from solar but maybe demand is higher but you need something to kind of fill that gap then you'd be looking at maybe you can have some kind of seasonal storage so you start to get things like hydrogen coming into the mix so it's really just being able to store energy for longer and discharge it over a longer period of time

对于短时间和长时间的使用场景差异，有什么简单快捷的说法吗？对于任何关注特斯拉Megapack的人来说，其持续时间为两个或四个小时，所以基本上属于短时期，但是在持续时间方面的一些用例是什么呢？ 那么，更长的持续时间可以用于更季节性的用例，这是一个重要的因素，因为整个年份内太阳能或风能的变化性以及能源需求的变化性都很大，所以您可能需要一些季节性储存，以填补这种间隙，这时你会想到更长期的storage技术，例如氢，实际上就是能够长时间存储能量并在一段时间内释放能量。

Okay, I wanted to loop back to the Tesla and how they may be benefiting right now from these producer tax credits. So, is it fair to say then that they're already earning the $10 per kilowatt hour using those cells from CATL, even though they're from China assembling those into modules or packs, and then they may actually already be getting the $35 per kilowatt hour for making those 4680 cells that are made in the United States, so they're actually kind of already getting the full $45 per kilowatt hour? Yeah, definitely. I mean, the I guess is how you really think about each part of the business so the 4680 cells right now I mean the primary kind of end market is for EV so that's kind of the EV side of the business.

好的，我想回到特斯拉车及它们现在可能从这些生产商税收抵免中受益的话题。那么，是否可以说他们已经通过使用中国CATL公司的电池单元，即使是将其组装成模块或包装，也已经获得了每千瓦时10美元的收益？而且，他们实际上可能已经为制造这些在美国制造的4680电池单元而获得每千瓦时35美元的收益，因此他们实际上已经获得了每千瓦时45美元的全部收益？是的，绝对是这样的。我的意思是，你真的需要考虑业务的每个部分，目前4680电池单元的主要最终市场是EV，因此这是业务的EV方面。

But you know if you get to a point where any of those cells are going into storage then it is you know for storage as well. I mean right now the 4680 cells that are being produced are NCM chemistries so it's unlikely we'll see those being deployed in energy storage at any point. It would always be kind of a step back in terms of Tesla strategy around hutch cells they're using but you know if we get to a point where Tesla are manufacturing enough of these cells which I think is definitely you know in the plan for the future then for sure that that kind of $45 that kind of wow is kind of feeding into the storage side of the business. Okay, so that's a good distinction then that they can be already earning that $35 per kilowatt hour but on Tesla's side from an accounting standpoint whether it's going to reduce the cost of goods sold for the EVs or for the megapet if that's kind of the differentiator. Gotcha.

但是你知道，如果任何一个细胞都被储存起来，那么它也是为了储存。我是说，现在生产的4680电池是NCM化学配方，因此不太可能在任何时候看到它们在能源存储方面使用。从特斯拉使用的hutch电池的策略来看，这总是有些倒退，但是如果我们达到了特斯拉制造足够这些电池的程度，我认为这绝对是未来计划的一部分，那么这种45美元的，这种厉害的情况，就会涉及到业务的存储方面。好了，这样就有一个很好的区分了，他们已经可以赚取每千瓦时35美元，但从特斯拉的会计角度来看，这是否会降低电动汽车或大型PET的销售成本，这是区分的关键。明白了。

Yeah, all right, good deal. So, you talked about China briefly. Are you able to share anything on the different incentive programs globally like do places like China and Europe have incentive programs in place like the IRA? Yeah, definitely. So, I mean the IRA is definitely the I'd say the strong one of the strongest policy levers that we've seen and support for the storage market in China at a national level. I say it's not too much in terms of support but once you get to a prevent provincial level, it becomes a lot more popular these are often more on the kind of generation side so once a storage asset is in place, you may be able to tap into basically kind of a production from the energy you've generated.

是的，好的，很好。你简要谈到了中国。你能否分享一下全球不同的激励计划，比如象IRA一样的中国和欧洲是否有类似的激励计划？ 当然。我认为IRA是我们所见过的支持中国国家级储能市场的最强有力的政策工具之一。在国家级别上，支持并不是太多。但是一旦到了省级别，情况会有所不同，这些计划通常与发电有关。一旦储能设施完成，你可能就能够从你所发电的能源中获得一定的收益。

So, I mean I've got a few different provinces I can give you. Yeah, in Quinghaw, I've got nine provinces basically if you generate over 540 hours for the end for the year so basically if the storage or asset is operating for that much you get 0.1 RMB per kilowatt hour generated. In northeast China, you get about 0.2 kilowatt hours per yep 0.2 RMB per kilowatt hour generated so that's about $30 per megawatt hour that you generate so over the course of the year that can add up to a good amount of money but it is much more on kind of a provincial level. Everyone kind of sets their own level of subsidy or incentive.

所以，我的意思是我有几个不同的省份可以给你选择。在青海，如果你在一年之内产生了超过540小时的储存或资产运营，你就可以获得0.1元人民币每千瓦时的收益。在中国东北，你可以获得约0.2元人民币每千瓦时的收益，所以你可以赚到每兆瓦时约30美元的收益。然而，这取决于省级的补贴或激励政策，每个省份都有自己的规定。一年内这些收益可以相当可观。

The European market is a bit different. I would say historically the European market has been relatively slow compared to the movement in the US and in China and that comes down a lot to a bit of kind of lack of policy support and also lack of cohesion. So, one of the big barriers in the European market is they'd expect a tax directive which was in place since like 2003, and it was around how storage was classified and it basically kind of classified storage is both a kind of drawer and a supplier and what that man was a double taxation so you were charge attacks for both supplying energy to the grid and also drawing it so charging and discharging which was causing issues for a lot of assets and which is why we don't see or we haven't seen much in terms of grid level deployments on mainland Europe.

欧洲市场有点不同。我认为，历史上欧洲市场相对于美国和中国的发展要慢一些，这很大程度上是由于缺乏政策支持和缺乏凝聚力。因此，在欧洲市场中存在一个很大的障碍，即他们期望有一项自2003年起实施的税收指令，在储能分类方面，它基本上将存储物视为一种抽屉和供应商，在这种情况下会产生双重征税，这意味着你既要缴纳向电网提供能源的税款，又要缴纳吸引电网能量的税款，也就是充电和放电。这样就给许多资产带来了问题，这也是为什么我们在欧洲大陆上没有看到或没有看到很多大规模的电网部署的原因。

The UK is a slightly different picture. The UK I mean is operating kind of independently from that we see a lot of projects come through in the UK and that really comes from I mean there's quite good in terms of revenue streams you can tap into the answering markets there but also there was a change in planning at the end of 2020 which basically kind of moved it from a national planning approval process to more like a local planning approval process so you can basically put push through bigger projects at a much more localised level which help the market in the UK and in Ireland as well actually. So yeah each market is operating a little bit independently.

英国的情况有点不同。我指的是英国正在相当独立地运作，我们看到很多项目在英国展开，这实际上源于英国有相当不错的收入渠道，你可以进入其回答市场，但同时也是因为2020年底的规划变化，将英国从国家规划批准过程转变为更像是地方规划批准过程，因此你可以在更本地化的层面上推进更大的项目，这有助于英国和爱尔兰的市场。所以，每个市场都在相对独立地运作。

I think in the EU, we're going to start to see a lot more support in the coming years so just I mean about a month ago now as part of the EU's Green Deal industrial plan which is it's kind of like their reaction to the IRA they announced a reform of the electricity market design and there was a lot of mention around storage and how you know demand response measures are going to be a big part of the future European grid and really highlighting the importance of energy storage as well and they also really it leaves like a ten-point plan. on energy storage and the the first one was kind of removal of this double taxation so there's kind of moves happening in Europe but not quite the same level of support particularly on the financing side as we've seen in the US there's a European sovereignty fund which should come out kind of in the summer I think and within that there might be a bit more clarity around how to tap into funds and access some of this money

我认为，在欧盟，未来几年我们将会看到更多的支持，就像一个月前欧盟公布的绿色协定工业计划一样——这个计划其实是对IRA的一种回应。计划中宣布了对电力市场设计的改革，并提到了储能和需求响应措施将成为未来欧洲电网的重要组成部分，并强调了能源储存的重要性。此外，该计划还提出了一个由10个要点组成的储能计划，其中第一个要点是取消双重税收。在欧洲，虽然已经出现了一些动作，但是尤其是在融资方面，与美国相比支持不太到位。夏天时将会有一个欧洲主权基金，通过该基金，或许我们能更清楚地了解如何获得资金，并访问一些资金。

okay awesome yeah that that's good stuff good to know so are the biggest markets right now China the United States Europe are those the big three when it comes to these battery energy storage deployments so far and are there any sleeper locations that were not should be in that conversation

好的，棒极了，是的，这很不错，很好知道。目前，最大的市场是中国、美国和欧洲。这三个地区目前是电池储能系统应用的主要市场，还有什么潜在的市场应该加入到这个讨论中吗？

yeah so I mean China the US sure Europe I mean it's a bit slower but it is it is happening a bit other markets they're pretty interesting as the Australian markets there's a lot of activity going on there I mean in terms of I mean mentioned it earlier around the kind of peak of plants and replacement of peak plants that's that's definitely a big market in Australia but also looking at you know the amount of solar that's being added to the Australian grid um battery storage is going to be a big part of that there's a few other markets which are pretty interesting as well so um I mean the Indian market has really strong potential for storage going forwards it's not it's not quite going yet or not quite got there yet but um you know in five years time I would say that's that's going to be one of the big markets particularly as you kind of look at um you know electricity demand growing in India as people elect five and people want access to air conditioning that sort of thing but another interesting market which is has kind of jumped up on my radar recently it's been the Turkish market so the the Turkish government or like electricity market regulation put out kind of a tender for energy storage and they had over 220 gigawatts of storage kind of sent in in this application process so right now they're only approved it was like 700 megawatt hour megawatts so quite small right now but they said over the next three three years they're basically going to tender about 20 gigawatts of storage so um yeah that could be an interesting market to watch over the next few years

嗯，我是说中国、美国当然还有欧洲，虽然它发展比较慢，但它正在慢慢发展。其他市场也很有趣，像澳大利亚市场，那里有很多活动。我是说，对于峰值发电厂的替换和更新，这在澳大利亚市场肯定是一个巨大的市场，而且看看澳大利亚的电网新增的太阳能电量，储能电池肯定是其中重要的一部分。还有其他一些很有趣的市场，比如印度市场在未来几年储能电池潜力很大，虽然现在还没有完全启动，但未来五年我认为它将成为一个很大的市场，特别是随着印度电力需求的增长和人们对空调等设施的需求增加。另一个最近引起我关注的有趣市场是土耳其市场。土耳其政府或电力市场监管机构发布了一个储能电池招标，他们收到了超过220千兆瓦的存储应用申请。目前他们只批准了700兆瓦小时兆瓦，所以目前规模相对较小。但是，他们表示在未来三年内将招标大约20千兆瓦的储能电池，所以未来几年可能是一个有趣的市场。

okay awesome so when it comes to these deployments I mean what are some of the biggest challenges and drawbacks and hurdles for the industry right now is there anything I guess yeah what's holding back this market from exploding at this point

好的，很棒。在谈到这些部署时，我想问一下目前行业面临的最大挑战、缺点和障碍是什么？还有就是，到底是什么阻碍了这个市场的爆炸性增长？

um I mean supply chain as with everything is always going to be an issue so probably the the biggest pinpoint in this market right now is on the system side um so I mean there's lots of sales being produced particularly I mean really in the Chinese market LFP sales being produced um but in terms of system manufacturing this is something that the industry is still lacking slightly um there's lots of lots of plans coming and lots of ramp plans so I mean of course you know Tesla with 40 gigawatts hours at Lathrop and then another 40 gigawatts and Shanghai is going to be um good for the market and bring a lot of storage through um you know Florence has it have have a few different production facilities um but in general there's there's you know not as they're not the amount of systems being produced as potentially that there is demand in the market um so yeah ramping up the the system reduction is going to be a big thing the other kind of biggest issue facing the market is really around grid connections and and kind of wait times for those um so it's easy for anyone to kind of say okay I want to install longer gigawatts hours of battery storage at this location but ultimately you're going to kind of join a queue to get the grid connection and you may be waiting for a number of years before you kind of get uh almost get the permission get the planning get the permitting approved but then also get the actual grid connection built out as well um so it takes time for these things

我是说，供应链问题一直都是一个问题，所以目前市场上最大的问题可能在于系统方面。我是说，特别是在中国市场，LFP销量非常大，但在系统制造方面，行业仍然稍有欠缺。虽然有许多计划和加速计划，例如特斯拉在Lathrop拥有的40吉瓦时和在上海的另外40吉瓦时，这将对市场产生积极影响并带来大量的储能。弗洛伦斯也拥有一些不同的生产设施，但总的来说，市场上的需求量并没有得到满足。因此，加速系统制造是一个重要的问题。市场面临的另一个最大问题实际上是与电网连接有关的，等待时间非常长。因此，任何人都可以轻易地说，我想在这个地方安装更长时间的电池储存，但实际上你需要排队等待连接电网，你可能需要等待几年时间，才能获得许可和计划批准，并获得实际的电网连接建设。因此，这些问题需要时间才能解决。

Yeah for sure is there any argument whatsoever for keeping any of the legacy system in the long term obviously this is going to take a long time to replace but in terms of moving forward with battery energy storage to keep some of these you know fossil fuel, pick your plants or that legacy system or is it pretty much at 100% battery energy storage is the way um I mean I think that in general fossil fuels will be part of a future to stick with that that we do have I think is going to be very difficult to go 100% um you know renewable 100% battery storage um one thing that that we will start to see more is you know integrative carbon capturing storage to go alongside any kind of fossil fuel generation um it's going to be very hard and it's going to take a long time to get to your point where 100% of the grid is green but um yeah yeah removing carbon in some form is going to be a big part of the future grid um and then of course you know you always need to have some kind of base load of energy generation um so if things like nuclear um are kind of potential to be a big part of that

当然，长期保留遗留系统是否有任何争议？显然，替换需要很长时间，但就电池能量存储前进方面而言，是否保留一些化石燃料之类的发电设备或者这些系统是否已经100％采用电池能量存储了，我想总的来说，化石燃料将是未来发电的一部分，坚持使用它们将非常困难，我们很难做到100％的可再生能源和100％的电池存储。我们将开始看到越来越多集成的碳捕集储来与任何化石燃料发电一起使用，这将是未来电网的重要部分，当然，你永远需要一些基本负荷的能源产生，如果一些像核能这样的材料可能成为其中的一个重要部分。

okay awesome so if you were leading Tesla where are you putting the next mega pack factory to have one in later they just announced one in Shanghai so where are you putting the third one given what you know I mean Europe is probably the obvious place to go yeah I mean I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see uh yeah I mean an announcement in Berlin or somewhere else in Europe in the in the coming months or year um yeah wouldn't be a tour surprise by that I think um you know with Lathrop you've got your essentially your supply in the US market the US domestic market the demand is significant there that's that's all you're really going to be able to do with with that one facility the facility in Shanghai um speaking to to some of my Chinese colleagues their their understanding is that it's really going to be for export rather than domestic markets um and the idea there being I mean you can supply basically into the rest of Asia you can supply Australia and also potentially supply into Europe as well so then the obvious step really is to have have a facility in Europe um so you can supply the European markets um and then maybe that does free up some capacity for domestic supply in China as well for mega packs um I mean right now there are a lot of pretty like um successful energy storage system players in the Chinese market so Tesla's gonna you know have to compete with these have to be price competitive um so that's that's gonna be you know harder maybe potentially harder um market to break into than just exporting to to to Europe or exporting to Australia

如果你是特斯拉的CEO，你会把下一个超级电池厂建在哪里？他们刚刚宣布在上海建设一个超级电池厂，那么你会把第三个建在哪里？考虑到你所知道的情况，欧洲可能是最明显的选择。我相信如果我们在未来几个月或一年内在柏林或欧洲其他地方看到公告，也不会感到惊讶。通过Lathrop，你已经满足了美国市场的供应需求，需求量非常大，这是你可以通过这个工厂实现的全部。在上海的工厂，据我的中国同事所说，真正的目的是出口，而不是在国内市场销售。这样一来，你可以向亚洲其他地区、澳大利亚甚至欧洲供应适当的产品。因此，明显的下一步就是在欧洲建立一个工厂，这样你就可以满足欧洲市场的需求。同时，这也让Tesla有可能更多的留出容量来满足中国国内市场对超级电池的需求。现在在中国市场上已经有很多非常成功的能源储存系统供应商，Tesla必须与他们竞争，必须更具价格竞争力，所以这可能是一个更难打入的市场，而将产品出口到欧洲或澳大利亚可能更容易一些。

Okay interesting so that leads me to a question that I had talking about the competitive landscape I mean as an industry insider like yourself I mean what's the narrative around Tesla are they the clear leader in a place like the United States or globally are they just one of the players do they still have stuff to prove kind of where do they fall in that hierarchy.

好的，很有趣。这让我有一个问题，关于竞争格局。作为一个像你这样行业内部人士，特斯拉在美国或全球的位置是怎样的？他们是明显的领导者还是只是一个参与者？他们还有什么需要证明的吗？在这个等级中，他们的地位是什么？

Yeah I mean I'd say right now they are they're one of the players they're one of the leading players in the western markets um but there's still you know a lot of potential for other players to to kind of come to you on top or similarly for Tesla to kind of run away with things and and be the the all out leader um I mean in the US market some of the the biggest players I guess um other lights are kind of like Fuyens Canadian solar power and Nidec ABB there's there's a really long list of players that are supplying systems um so ultimately it comes down to who can manufacture the most and you know Tesla's been the most ambitious in terms of its production um capacity plans so that really does set them in in quite a good position for you know taking some level of kind of market dominance or leadership in in the US and in western markets so yeah it's quite diverse landscape right now.

我认为现在他们是西方市场中领先的公司之一，但是其他公司也有很多潜力可以超越他们，另外特斯拉也可能会成为市场的领导者。在美国市场，除了特斯拉，一些最大的公司还包括福银、加拿大太阳能和尼迪克ABB等，有很多公司正在供应系统。最终，关键在于谁能制造出最多产品，而特斯拉在生产能力方面的雄心勃勃的计划使其在美国和西方市场取得了相当不错的地位。因此，目前市场格局非常多样化。

Um it's also it's also quite interesting one because if we go back two years ago cell manufacturers weren't really involved in the system space um so really they would just supply to I mean they were supplying to EVs and then any batteries they already had left over were just sent into stationary storage but a lot of the cell manufacturers are moving into the system space as well so you know with this level of vertical integration it's possible for them to maybe do things cheaper than Tesla can where they're purchasing cells so I think I think a big um a big part of whether or how successful Tesla is is in storage really comes down to whether they stop using their own cells as well um because I think you know you've really got to be interraced across those two parts to to be able to compete with say CETL who can do both cell and system.

这也是一个相当有趣的观点，因为如果我们回顾两年前，电池制造商并没有真正参与到系统领域中去。所以，实际上，他们只是为电动汽车供应电池，然后将已有的电池余量发送到静止存储中。但许多电池制造商也正在进入系统领域。因此，随着这种垂直整合的发展，他们可能可以比特斯拉更便宜地采购电池，所以我认为特斯拉在储能方面能否成功，很大程度上取决于他们是否停止使用自己的电池。因为我认为，要想与同时可以做电池和系统的CETL竞争，你必须在这两个领域都有很强的联系。

Can you say that the market is big enough for multiple players specifically in the United States for the next few years to where basically whatever these companies are making they're pretty much going to sell it and you know at what point it made that change where you really have to be like the best of the best for these companies to pick your product yeah I mean looking at kind of our demand forecasts out to 2030-2040 and what's it looking at kind of renewable forecasts along that time scale um this isn't the market which is going to slow down at any point the next few years so there's definitely room for lots of different players um and you know when you can make comparisons with the EV market or with vehicle market multiple operators can succeed and multiple OEMs can succeed so I definitely don't think it's going to be a case of one player dominating necessarily um but you know the demand is really significant and uh it's going to continue to be significant so I think there's definitely a strong opportunity for for multipliers.

你能说市场在未来几年内是否足够大，特别是在美国，以至于无论这些公司生产什么，它们几乎都能卖出去，你知道这个变化是在什么时候发生的，在这些公司选择你的产品时，你真的必须成为最好的吗？我是说，从我们的需求预测到2030-2040年和从可再生能源预测来看，在这个时间范围内，这个市场不会减缓，因此肯定有很多不同的参与者的空间，你可以和电动汽车或汽车市场进行比较，多个操作者和多个原始设备制造商可以成功，所以我确实不认为会是一家公司主导市场，但需求确实非常大，并且将继续保持重要性，因此我认为有很大的机会给这种多元化创造。

If you had to pick either your favorite two or the two companies you think are poised to kind of emerge as the leaders over the next few years first in North America and then maybe second over in China like do you have two companies that stand out yeah I mean probably the the ones who are kind of the the biggest and make the most noise it would of course be Tazza in the US and Florence probably the other other player which is really making a lot of good progress and um has quite significant expansion plans as well um there's a number of other US players who are really just getting started um particularly I think some of the really interesting ones are those who are just setting up gigafactories so our next energy core power they both have ambitious plans for gigafactories and you know alongside that kind of having integrated system.

如果你必须选择你最喜欢的两个公司或者你认为在未来几年中有望成为领导者的两个公司，首先在北美，然后或许在中国，你是否有两个公司脱颖而出呢？是的，我认为可能会是在美国的Tazza和Florence，它们是最大的并且产生了最大的声响。还有另一个公司，它也取得了很大的进展，有着相当重大的扩张计划，那就是Florence。还有许多其他刚刚起步的美国公司，特别是那些正在建立“gigafactories”的公司，例如我们的Next Energy Core Power，它们都有雄心勃勃的“gigafactories”计划，并且与此相伴随的还有整个系统的集成。

Manufacturing um so that that's definitely those are kind of interesting ones to watch in that sense um in the Chinese market I mean it's it's pretty diverse um a lot of the players who are doing very well come from a more like renewable background so players like Jinco solar um you know they come from a really strong footing in the solar industry and that's allowing them to kind of make moves in storage as well but probably the the biggest players over there are kind of the the names that that you kind of all know from cell manufacturing so it's ATL B-O-I-D um I really I mean if they've got the cell capacity and they can do it themselves then it's almost you kind of question why they would bother selling cells when they can just build a system and sell at a premium so it's uh yeah makes sense so you touch on that might be a challenging market for Tesla to break into the Chinese one I mean is it just be from a cost standpoint or is it the government kind of encouraging the their home players or what do you think those biggest challenges are for Tesla in that market specifically and why you think they'll be exporting more from that Shanghai Megapack factory then actually supplying to the local market yeah I mean from from chatting with with my Chinese colleagues the the main point they see is the cost point um just being cost-compressive is it's going to be difficult and that's really the primary driver for all right the truth selecting a system you know you go for the the most affordable one so that's probably going to be the the biggest thing um okay and you I mean you can just really imagine that if you have a CATL system or you have CATL cells in a Tesla system which one is going to be cheaper it's you know which way people are going to go so that that could be the kind of big point there okay yep that makes sense uh can you touch on the battery temperatures a bit I know you touched on the market kind of moving toward LFP you know maybe what percentage of the market right now is LFP is sodium ion at all ready to be a player in the storage space I know that's just starting to trickle out into the EV realm with BWIDE and CATL so what's that look like right now yeah um so I mean firstly on the completely amyon market so um this is kind of the dominant chemistry in stationary storage right now um you do have a few other chemistries which take little pieces of the picture but it really is predominantly a lithium ion story right now if we go back to kind of 2020 the market was basically 50 50 split between NCM so nickel-carbon magnies and 50% LFP so lithium ion phosphate um and last year that was closer to about 75 80% LFP um and that was something that that really shifts on the back of a number a number of different things but cost being one of the big ones safety being one of the other big ones um and then there was a really a kind of shift in strategies from the OEMs and from the salm manufacturers as well.

制造商们对制造储能设备很感兴趣，特别是在中国市场上。这个市场非常多样化，很多表现不错的参与者来自可再生能源领域，比如金风科技。另外，像ATL B-O-I-D这样的著名电池制造商也在中国市场表现不错。由于其具有电池技术和系统技术，如果他们自己能够生产电池，那么为什么不直接制造储能系统呢？因此，他们可能不愿意销售电池，而是在市场上销售更高端的储能系统。对于特斯拉来说，进军中国市场可能会面临挑战，首要问题在于成本。他们会将更多的产出运往国外市场，而非向本地市场供应。当前主导储能市场的是锂离子电池，其中LFP是目前最流行的化学性质。其它化学性质的技术像钠离子电池正在开始在电动汽车领域中得到应用，如宝马和上汽。

So the way this market was operating back in in 2020 was really a surplus market um so if you think about what sales Tesla was using in its energy storage product products at that point it was primarily whatever they were using in their EVs as well and then kind of just the batteries that were left over almost got filtered into their storage products and then you had a number of battery fires happen so you had the Victoria big battery fire um which you know scared a lot of people that was definitely a big concern for the market how this was going to you know impact the market and you know on the back of that I wouldn't say that was the primary driver but it was almost a turning point for a lot of the industry we saw a lot of developers saying we're only going to use LFP sales from now on um and then you know Tesla announced their strategy to shift the LFP um and a lot of other players followed suit as well so no this market is really in the last two years shifted quite significantly towards LFP if you look at certain markets in particular so in China it's closer to like 95% LFP um and they actually have some policy around technology choice as well so last year the national energy administration they put out a draft so this isn't kind of concrete it was just a proposal um basically to ban NCM batteries in in large scale energy storage so this wouldn't actually have a much significant impact in China because everything is basically LFP anyway but you can imagine if China is kind of mandating around what technologies should be used this is going to have a knock on effect to other markets as well um and then the other big thing we're seeing uh with with LFP chemistries is really kind of advancements around the the size of these cells being manufacturers so um increasingly we're seeing kind of the the voltage being pushed up um and also the amperes being pushed up in terms of these cell formats so I think last year's last year C80 I came out with a 280 ampower system uh or ampower cells that's a single cell 280 ampowers um and what that did was I mean you've got a larger cell so basically you've got less moving parts for the whole system so bring down costs it also allows you to kind of start to play around with the cycle life um so cycle life is it's kind of one of the most important things for storage because you want this asset to last as long as possible so they came out with their products last year which were about 8,000 cycles and then in the last few months we've seen a number of other players come out with their their cells which are putting that form out even larger so I think the biggest one right now um is EBE energy and they have a 560 ampower cell um and with that they're reportedly about 12,000 cycles so I've seen estimates that should last about 30 years of the system so increasingly seeing that kind of these advancements being made to kind of larger format cells specifically for stationery storage um and these are these are worth it so you know you you can really see how that market is going in terms of within lithium ion the chemistry is being used um

2020年，市场运作的方式实际上是一个过剩市场。因此，如果考虑到特斯拉在能量储存产品中销售的东西，主要是他们在电动汽车中使用的东西，其余的电池几乎被过滤到他们的储存产品中。但是，随着大量的电池火灾的发生，比如维多利亚的大型电池火灾，这肯定引起了市场的重视。虽然这不是主要驱动力，但这几乎是整个行业的一个转折点。人们开始意识到必须在能量储存产品中使用更加可靠和安全的电池，特别是LFP电池。在过去两年中，市场已经大规模转向LFP电池。尤其是在中国市场，LFP电池的比例已经接近95%。实际上，去年中国国家能源局提出了一个草案，即禁止大规模能量储存中使用NCM电池。尽管这对中国市场来说没有太大影响，但是如果中国要规定使用哪一种技术，这将对其他市场产生连锁影响。 此外，我们发现LFP电池的设计也在不断进步。越来越多的电池制造商在增加电池单元的电压和电流方面进行了创新。例如，去年C80推出了一种280安培的单一电池，仅一个电池就有280安培。这意味着可以减少整个系统的移动部件，降低成本，并且可以开始尝试提高电池的循环寿命。在过去的几个月里，我们看到了一些其他供应商推出了更大的电池单元，比如现在最大的电池单元是EBE Energy的560安培电池，据说可以达到12,000个充电周期，系统寿命可长达30年。因此，我们可以看到，在锂离子电池的领域中，LFP化学物质的使用越来越广泛。

outside of the lithium ion batteries there are a number of different chemistries which are interesting and have good potential um there are there are lots and lots and lots of different ones that are all kind of at the novel early stage um someone who are publicly listed some of them are getting a bit of attention but they're all relatively early stage um then you have probably the two which are the kind of furthest progress right now um flow batteries um so these tend to be kind of vanadium flow batteries which are the most popular ones primarily in China there's a lot of activity going on there um but again these are still relatively pilot stage um at a cost point they're more expensive than lithium ion right now they do have potential to to kind of be cheaper and be cost competitive um but relatively early stage still and then the other big one is is sodium ion batteries so um these are these are really quite interesting for stationery storage and and we think they have potential to be quite big market disruptor um in terms of the chemistry being used so it really comes down to kind of a few key things

除了锂电池之外，还有许多不同的化学品种，它们都有很好的潜力和吸引力。有很多种不同的产品，它们都处于刚开始的阶段。有些公司已经公开上市，一些得到了关注，但它们都还处于相对早期的阶段。目前进展最远的两种是流动电池和钠离子电池。流动电池通常采用钒流动电池，这是目前中国最受欢迎的类型。尽管在成本方面比锂离子电池更昂贵，但它们具有成本优势的潜力。钠离子电池特别适合于静止储存，并且我们认为它们有潜力成为市场颠覆者。化学成分的选择真正取决于几个关键因素。

so firstly on the cost side so sodium is cheaper than lithium um particularly when lithium price is to high it's cheaper than sodium um I mean lithium prices have come down a lot now so that cost differential is maybe not as big as people thought it was going to be a few months ago um but the cost is a big thing

首先从成本方面说，钠比锂便宜，特别是当锂的价格过高时，钠更加便宜。我指的是现在锂的价格已经下降了很多，所以成本差距可能不像几个月前人们想的那么大，但成本是一个很重要的因素。

Safety is another big thing so um you know uh these batteries are safer than lithium ion safe than LFP um there's a number of other things which are really useful so you can like fully discharge sodium ion cells so it makes it really good for transporting it um you can also use um aluminium as the current collector instead of copper so that's another thing which is cheaper um so there's there's a whole range of things that make this cheaper or make this safer um so good potential for this market right now it's you know it is early stages we are seeing lots of announcements come through in China um but it will take time for this technology base to be kind of trusted in the market and also deployed so probably the the leading player now in terms of um a cell manufacturer is commonly called high-nower battery um so they have a one gigawatt hour gigafactory and they're planning to expand that to I think around like six gigawatt hours by the end of the year um and they have a number of offtake agreements with different um different kind of OEMs and also integrators um and they're planning to install a 16 megawatt hour battery um in China that's coming online this year so that's the the kind of biggest sodium ion energy storage project um which is in the pipeline right now um so they're kind of the leading player right now and they're making the most progress of course there's lots of news around CETL and CETL um they deem they display the their sodium ion battery at Shanghai Auto um so we're going to see more and more of it start to come through I think one thing that we we've really noticed is um particularly speaking to you a lot of the the Western integrators is they're going to be they're quite resistant to you take on a new technology at this time so I think we'll we'll see is um deployments in China come a lot faster than deployments anywhere else so you know in China we we can expect to see sodium ion projects come through in the next year next few years but in in Europe and in the US it's going to take a few more years for it to trickle through um and that really comes down to just kind of the integrators trusting the technology and and re-knowing what they're getting into um they've just got used to LFP so they're they're not sure about how new technology um is the new I guess the other things out is um that BYD announcement that that's still a rumor so everyone's been throwing that round like that's fact but um yeah just to clarify that's BYD denied that rumor so the sego is is LFP cells melt sodium ion interesting I'm glad you said that I literally just talked about that in my video yesterday so I'm going to have to update that good stuff uh yeah that's awesome information so thank you for that do you have any insight into why Tesla isn't making LFP cells now it does have anything to do with those patents that they can only be made in China for a while or are you not sure um yeah I think that probably was was a big factor for it and is why we haven't seen uh much LFP capacity in general in the US market um I think as well you know if you go back two years ago no I really thought LFP was going to be used in in EVs there was uh this idea that it was not not the energy density wasn't high enough and um NCM was just better so the investment wasn't really made in terms of further up the supply chain as well so in terms of um LFP cathode production you don't really have much of that going on in in the US market either.

安全性是非常重要的一件事情，你知道，这些电池比锂离子电池和LFP电池更安全。它还有许多其他的用途，比如钠离子电池可以完全放电，因此在运输方面非常有利；还可以使用铝作为电流收集器，这样就可以降低成本；因此有许多因素使得这个技术变得更加便宜、更加安全，并且在当前市场上具有很高潜力。虽然在中国已经有很多关于钠离子电池的公告，但是这个技术在市场中得到信任并应用各个领域还需要时间。现在在电池生产方面，High-Nower电池公司是领先者。他们拥有1吉瓦时的Gigafactory，并计划在今年末将产能扩大到大约6吉瓦时；此外，在不同的OEM和整合商中，他们有许多接口协议，他们计划在中国安装一个16兆瓦时的电池，这是正在开发的最大的钠离子能量存储项目。显然，High-Nower正在取得最多的进展。此外，CETL也有很多关于钠离子电池的新闻。西方的整合商可能会抵制新技术，因此在中国的部署会比在欧洲和美国快得多。 BYD有关于使用LFP电池熔炉生产钠离子电池的传闻，但是现在被否认了。至于特斯拉为什么不生产LFP电池，可能与在中国的专利有关系，他们有一段时间只能在中国生产。同时，两年前人们并不认为LFP电池适用于电动汽车，因为其能量密度不高，NCM电池的性能更好，因此供应链中上游的LFP阴极生产也没有得到相应的投资，在美国市场上很少涉及LFP电池产能。

Iola what are you most excited for in this space it doesn't have to be battery energy storage just anything at all what you're doing on a daily basis what you're seeing what are you most excited for over the next three to five years um I think the big thing is this this market is really just getting started um so you know we're going to see some some really impressive growth over the next few years I mean what in what I do a day to day I'm looking at both um the EV market and the stationary storage item things and both these markets seem to be you know somewhat of an inflection point where things are really just starting to get going um so yeah lots of lots of growth over the next few years for sure.

Iola，你在这个领域最期待的是什么？不一定是电池能量存储，可以是任何事情，比如你每天所做的事情，你看到的事情，你在未来三到五年中最期待的是什么？我认为最重要的是这个市场才刚刚起步，未来几年我们将看到一些真正令人印象深刻的增长。在我的日常工作中，我关注电动汽车市场和固定式储能市场，这两个市场似乎在一个拐点上，正在开始真正启动。因此，在未来几年中，有很多增长的空间。

Well Iola it has been an absolute pleasure chatting with you thank you so much for sharing all of this uh knowledge and wisdom with us it's been greatly appreciated so thank you.

伊奥拉，和您聊天真是太愉快了，非常感谢您与我们分享这些知识和智慧，我们深受感激。谢谢您！

Yeah thanks very much for having me.

非常感谢你邀请我。意思是感谢对方的款待和接待。