Markets Weekly November 14, 2026

**日期：** 11月14日 **市场每周总结** 演讲者指出，由于两大主要进展，市场又度过了令人兴奋的一周：英伟达首席执行官兼创始人黄仁勋的突然被罢免（被解读为一次有计划的打击）以及美联储官员的鹰派言论（特别是理事沃勒对12月进行50个基点的超常规加息持开放态度，将10年期国债收益率推回5.1以上）。 --- ### **1. 利率与美联储政策** * **市场驱动因素：** 在过去的几个月中，利率主要受以下两个因素影响而波动： * **油价：** 当油价上涨时，10年期国债收益率随之上升，因为较高的能源价格预示着更高的通货膨胀和更偏向鹰派的政策路径。 * **人工智能交易：** 当人工智能交易动摇时，10年期国债收益率下降，因为人工智能数据中心的建设以及人工智能股票上涨产生的财富效应支撑了美国经济。人工智能交易的动摇暗示失业率可能上升、需求减少、通货膨胀面临下行压力，以及更偏向鸽派的政策路径。 * **两年期收益率：** 过去几周随着油价和人工智能交易的动摇，两年期收益率（政策路径的良好风向标）稳步下降，但由于美联储官员的鹰派言论，它再次飙升。 * **沃勒理事的讲话：** 沃勒理事在英国发表讲话称，如果当周的核心CPI环比数据在0.3%左右或更高，他将对12月加息50个基点持开放态度。 * *分析：* 这不是前瞻性指引（即独立于即将发布的数据来制定政策），而是一种反应函数（即以数据为条件来设定预期的政策路径）。 * **CPI数据与通胀担忧：** 在沃勒的表态之后，核心CPI环比数据高于预期，达到0.3%，这引发了一场小型恐慌，并提高了12月加息50个基点的几率。 * **鹰派立场的理由：** 通货膨胀几乎没有取得进展。此外，美联储的新研究表明，疫情过后，油价向核心通胀的传导比过去更高（这意味着油价更容易渗透到具有粘性的核心通胀中）。 * **精炼产品与原油：** 当被问及为什么在原油价格下跌的情况下他仍然保持鹰派时，沃勒回答说，由于乌克兰战争对炼油能力造成了破坏，以及对流出中东的精炼产品的持续影响（例如，柴油价格保持高位），精炼产品价格依然居高不下。 * **当前市场定价：** 市场目前正在对未来12个月内进行超过三次加息进行定价。其他官员（洛根、哈马克）似乎赞成更多次数的加息，但似乎不支持超常规加息。市场目前预计12月加息25个基点，1月加息25个基点，随后可能还会有更多加息。这比9月的点阵图（支持总计75个基点的降息被撤销的3次加息）更为鹰派。 --- ### **2. 人工智能交易与英伟达** * **英伟达现状：** 英伟达被描述为人工智能交易的将军和云技术皇冠上的明珠，其股价今年迄今已下跌10%，在近期事件发生之前就已经陷入挣扎。 * **罢免黄仁勋：** * **指控：** 英伟达的创始人兼缔造者黄仁勋在遭到指控后被董事会逼宫。事件始于他与一名中国女性的绯闻，该女性是超级速度（东南亚的一家云计算提供商）的高管——最初被指控为中国间谍（尽管没有得到很好的支持），随后又出现了更多与下属有染的指控。 * **演讲者对罢免事件的分析：** 演讲者认为这是一次由国家安全机构和对黄仁勋向中国出售图形处理器（GPU）持开放态度感到不满的对华鹰派发起的有协调的暗算。虽然英伟达不能直接向中国出售其最先进的图形处理器，但他们向东南亚的云服务商（如马来西亚或新加坡的超级速度）出售图形处理器，中国公司在那里租赁算力。人们有些担心超级速度将图形处理器实体非法转运到了中国。 * **贸易限制背景：** 贸易限制很少能有效发挥作用（堪比欧盟通过印度对俄罗斯原油实施的限制，或者通过越南和墨西哥的美中贸易战）。白宫非常清楚这些云服务安排，英伟达此前曾向总统的宴会厅捐赠了2500万美元。然而，中期选举发生了，国王的随从/国王被削弱了，刀子便拔了出来。 * **开放式人工智能生态系统威胁：** 另一种理论是，詹森（黄仁勋）支持开放式人工智能生态系统，并正在考虑开发前沿的开放权重美国人工智能模型，这对Anthropic和ChatGPT（希望上市）等封闭式人工智能模型构成了致命威胁。 * **更广泛的人工智能生态系统与融资影响：** * 英伟达最近是一家市值5万亿美元的公司，其崩溃主要通过融资影响更广泛的生态系统。 * 根据最新的美联储金融稳定报告，大型科技公司通过承诺为人工智能生态系统提供了实质性支持。例如，英伟达为图形处理器价值提供了担保（因此购买英伟达图形处理器的垂直云厂商可以将其质押给特殊目的实体以获得融资，且残值由英伟达担保），并向垂直云厂商提供直接融资/股权投资。 * **新领导层方向：** 新任首席执行官克雷斯似乎不太支持进行这些投资和承诺。 * **多重不利因素叠加：** 随着利率上升，垂直云厂商和人工智能生态系统边缘部分的融资已经萎缩。对英伟达融资渠道的攻击进一步扼杀了对人工智能生态系统的融资，这表明未来还有更多下行空间。 * **市场前景：** 费城证券交易所指数看起来正在坠崖。纳斯达克指数曾跃升至200日移动平均线上方，但在周五回落至其下方，延续了下行趋势。尽管接近周期中季节性积极的部分（感恩节和圣诞节），但美联储的进一步加息以及英伟达缩减循环融资，给人工智能交易和更广泛的美国经济（一直由数据中心建设和财富效应驱动）带来了更多逆风。到2027年，降速可能已经被市场定价。 --- ### **其他备注** * **技术故障：** 上周微软Outlook发生了长时间的故障，导致无法发送电子邮件，并且在周五发生了一起通信错误，导致美国联邦航空管理局让许多美国航班停飞（虽然被主持人视为巧合，但未被认为是一次网络攻击）。 * **主持人建议：** 随着人工智能时代的发展，将会有更多的行动者获得更强大的网络攻击能力，因此听众应该在拥有极好网络安全的公司开户或存放账户。

**Date:** November 14th **Markets Weekly Summary** The speaker notes that markets have had another exciting week, driven by two main developments: the sudden ouster of Nvidia CEO and founder Jensen Huang (interpreted as an orchestrated hit) and hawkish Fed speak (notably Governor Waller being open to a supersized 50 basis point hike in December, pushing the 10-year yield back above 5.1). --- ### **1. Rates and Fed Policy** * **Market Drivers:** Over the past several months, rates have traded off of two main things: * **Oil prices:** When oil prices rose, the 10-year yield rose due to higher energy prices signaling higher inflation and a more hawkish policy path. * **The AI trade:** When the AI trade faltered, the 10-year yield declined because the AI data center build-out and wealth effect from rising AI stocks power the US economy. A faltering AI trade suggests potential rises in unemployment, less demand, downward pressure on inflation, and a more dovish policy path. * **Two-Year Yield:** The two-year yield (a good proxy for the path of policy) steadily came down as oil prices and the AI trade faltered over the past few weeks, but it has surged again due to hawkish Fed speak. * **Governor Waller's Speech:** Governor Waller gave a speech in the UK stating that if core CPI for the week came in on a month-over-month basis around 0.3% or higher, he would be open to a 50 basis point hike in december. * *Analysis:* This is not forward guidance (setting policy independent of upcoming data), but a reaction function (setting an expected path of policy conditional on data). * **CPI Data & Inflation Concerns:** Following Waller's statement, core CPI month-over-month came in hotter than expected at 0.3%, causing a mini-panic and raising odds of a 50 basis point hike in December. * **Reasoning for Hawkishness:** There has been little progress on inflation. Furthermore, new Fed research suggests that post-pandemic, the pass-through from oil prices to core inflation is higher than in the past (meaning oil prices bleed more readily into sticky core inflation). * **Refined Products vs. Crude:** When asked why he is hawkish despite crude oil prices coming down, Waller responded that refined products remain elevated due to the destruction of refinery capacity from the war in Ukraine and ongoing impacts on refined products flowing out of the Middle East (e.g., diesel prices remain elevated). * **Current Market Pricing:** The market is now pricing in more than three more hikes in the next 12 months. Other officials (Logan, Hammack) seemed for 50 basis points more in hikes, but don't seem supportive of a supersized hike. The market currently expects 25 basis points in December, 25 in January, and potentially more later on. This is more hawkish than the September dot plot (which supported 3 hikes totaling 75 basis points of cuts undone). --- ### **2. The AI Trade and Nvidia** * **Nvidia Status:** Nvidia, described as the general of the AI trade and a cloud technological crown jewel, has seen its stock down 10% year-to-date and struggling even before recent events. * **Ouster of Jensen Huang:** * **Allegations:** Jensen Huang, founder and builder of Nvidia, was pushed out by the board following allegations. It began with an affair with a Chinese woman who was an executive at mega speed (a cloud computing provider in Southeast Asia)—initially alleged to be a chinese spy (though not well-supported)—followed by more allegations of affairs with subordinates. * **Speaker’s Analysis on the Ouster:** The speaker views this as a coordinated hit job by the national security establishment and China hawks unhappy with Huang's openness to selling GPUs to China. While Nvidia cannot sell its most advanced GPUs directly to China, they sell GPUs to cloud providers in Southeast Asia (like mega speed in Malaysia or Singapore) where Chinese companies rent capacity. Some concern exists that mega speed physically trans-shipped GPUs to China illegally. * **Trade Constraints Context:** Trade constraints rarely work effectively (comparable to EU restrictions on Russian crude via India, or US-China trade wars via Vietnam and Mexico). The White House was well aware of these cloud arrangements, and Nvidia had previously donated $25 million to the president's ballroom. However, the midterm elections happened, the king's entourage/king was weakened, and the knives came out. * **Open AI Ecosystem Threat:** Another theory is that Jensen was supportive of an open AI ecosystem and was thinking about developing a frontier open-weight American AI model, posing a mortal threat to closed AI models like Anthropic and ChatGPT (which would like to go public). * **Broader AI Ecosystem and Financing Impact:** * Nvidia was recently a 5 trillion dollar company, and its implosion impacts the broader ecosystem largely through financing. * Per the latest Fed financial stability report, big tech companies have provided substantial support to the AI ecosystem via commitments. For example, Nvidia provided guarantees for GPU values (so neoclouds buying Nvidia GPUs could pledge them for financing to an SPV with residual value guaranteed by Nvidia) and outright financing/equity investments to neoclouds. * **New Leadership Direction:** The new CEO, Kress, seems less supportive of making these investments and commitments. * **Combined Headwinds:** As interest rates rise, financing has shrunk for neoclouds and fringe parts of the AI ecosystem. The attack on the Nvidia financing avenue further chokes off financing to the AI ecosystem, suggesting more downside to come. * **Market Outlook:** The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Index looks like it's falling off a cliff. The Nasdaq jumped above the 200-day moving average but fell back beneath it on Friday, keeping the trend lower. Despite approaching seasonally positive parts of the cycle (Thanksgiving and Christmas), further Fed hiking and Nvidia scaling back circular financing create more headwinds for the AI trade and the broader US economy (which has been powered by data center build-outs and the wealth effect). Deceleration might be priced in by 2027. --- ### **Additional Notes** * **Technical Outages:** Last week featured an extended outage in Microsoft Outlook preventing email sending, and a communications error on Friday that caused the FAA to ground many US flights (not deemed a cyber attack, though viewed by the host as a coincidence). * **Host Advice:** As the AI age progresses, more actors will have access to stronger cyber attack capabilities, so listeners should bank or hold accounts with companies possessing very good cybersecurity.