Recursive self-improvement has started

If you asked me earlier this year how far away we are from superintelligence, I’d probably have said at least the better part of a decade. But over the last three months, from debating people on and off the podcast, I’ve updated my views a ton. Let me walk you through how my thinking has changed. If you want to read the written version (with footnotes and links) you can check it out here: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/rsi Music by @tomfoxcatalog 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒 0:00:00 – AI is already speeding up AI progress 0:02:03 – Math is a preview of what will happen to AI research 0:11:10 – Automating the best researchers would speed up AI progress a lot 0:14:24 – We might get a singularity or a spark 0:17:21 – Superintelligence will be a really good meta-learner 0:25:59 – Appendix: AI R&D is largely verifiable 0:33:30 – Objections to RSI 0:33:59 – Objection: continual learning 0:36:44 – Objection: finding the right verifiable proxies 0:38:26 – Objection: data 0:39:58 – Objection: experiment compute

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