Markets Weekly November 7, 2026
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以下是根据您提供的英文文本翻译的简体中文内容：
以下是根据严格提供的文字记录总结的 2026 年 11 月 8 日发布的 Markets Weekly 播客内容（该集录制于 11 月 7 日）：
### **经济数据与劳动力市场**
* **生产力数据：** 上周的生产力数据远强于预期。这可能是人工智能正在渗入硬数据。大型科技公司在员工人数减少的同时收入增加，从而展现出生产力的大幅提升。虽然人工智能在生产的商品和服务（例如即时研究报告）方面增加了整体财富，但主持人警告说，并没有多少人能通过它赚到钱。
* **就业数据：**
* JOLTS（美国职位空缺）显著强于预期并出现大幅跃升，表明对劳动力的高度需求。
* 非农就业报告（NFP）全面表现强劲：整体就业岗位创造超出预期，失业率降至 4.1%，劳动力参与率上升，工资增长加速。
* 强劲的劳动力市场意味着美联储无需担心其劳动力市场使命，而只需专注于通胀，尽管近期市场出现小幅波动，美联储仍有望在 12 月加息。
### **政治变革：“蓝色革命”与 MAGA 的终结**
* **MAGA 运动的衰落：** 主持人宣布 MAGA 的终结——这是过去十年中美国最具影响力的政治运动，它带来了特朗普总统的两个任期。该运动巩固为一个对总统绝对忠随的“独裁级别”政党，这意味着所有的胜利和随后的失败都归属于他。
* **中期选举的灭绝级事件：** 上周的中期选举导致了“蓝色革命”，并对特朗普时代进行了全面否决：
* 民主党赢得了参议院和众议院的控制权。
* 参议院版图产生了预计的民主党多数席位（例如达到 56 席），同时共和党在得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和密西西比州遭遇惨败。
* 州长职位和州议会被民主党横扫，包括得克萨斯州（格雷格·阿博特先前稳固的席位）、佐治亚州和内华达州，这抹去了整整一代共和党政治人物。
* 2028 年的参议院版图对共和党不利，这使得长达十年的民主党统治成为可能，2028 年白宫失守的可能性增加（博彩市场认为民主党夺得白宫的几率接近 70%），并且随着年长的共和党任命大法官（如托马斯大法官）退休，最高法院最终将发生人事更迭。
* **选民强烈反弹的原因：** 选民感到经济并未为他们服务，因为高通胀损害了生活水平。主要的不满包括：
* 总统的政策选择推高了进口价格（关税）和汽油价格（伊朗战争）。
* 腐败的感观，包括总统的家族变得具有历史意义的富有、更快出售 Truth Social 的订阅服务、尽管承诺“抽干沼泽”但 Epstein（爱泼斯坦）档案仍未得到处理，以及对移民执法的不满。
### **市场影响与资产价格**
* **数据中心与人工智能交易：**
* 即将上台的民主党控制权对人工智能交易和数据中心建设构成了威胁。在得克萨斯州和佐治亚州等地，州级民主党州长和议员由于电价、噪音、水污染和对工作岗位流失的担忧，正在提议暂停、加强监管、进行调查、征收环境影响费，并反对数据中心。
* 基本面原因已经对数据中心造成压力，例如大规模的算法改进增加了 Token 的供应（Brandon Carl 在《Benny and the Squirrel》节目中估计 Token 每年会出现 13 倍的通货紧缩），这使得人工智能交易出现过度建设。
* 市场反应：科技股上周崩盘，纳斯达克指数跌破 200 日移动平均线，标准普尔 500 指数形成双顶并呈走低趋势，尽管在季节性利好的圣诞节来临之际，预计短期内不会发生严重崩溃。
* **油价与地缘政治：**
* 由于伊朗战争结束的可能性增加，油价上周崩盘。参议员舒默（潜在的参议院多数党领袖）讨论了停止为战争提供资金，副总统 J.D. 万斯在推特上公开与总统决裂，将选举失利归咎于伊朗战争。
* 持不同政见者希望退出伊朗，尽管共和党内部的一些以色列宣传家主张“完成任务”。预计较低的油价将造福经济并降低通胀。
* **关税与贸易：** 美国广泛支持结束与加拿大的贸易战（特别是在失去密歇根州、缅因州以及苏珊·柯林斯在缅因州的边境州参议院席位之后），这表明部分关税将会下调。较低的油价、数据中心的障碍以及较低的关税，对降低通胀全部都是利好的。
* **债券与美联储：** 主持人认为这些事态发展对债券而言非常利好。随着承受能力成为竞选信息的主导且通胀回落，沃尔什主席和民主党国会可能会有更多的腾挪空间，甚至在必要时加息。
* **税收与财富分配：**
* 民主党的治理偏向于通过更高的税收来资助财富再分配（免费医疗、教育、儿童保育）。
* 虽然财富税在加利福尼亚州遭遇挫折，但提高企业税、资本利得税或个人所得税得到了更广泛的公众支持。与 GDP 和经合组织（OECD）成员国相比，目前的美国税收较低（不同于税负沉重的法国）。
* 尽管较高的税收可能不会严重影响经济增长，但它们会降低企业盈利和金融资产购买，从而导致一个对中间人群更好但对资产价格不太有利的“K”型经济。太阳能等绿色能源主题也可能会成为焦点。
### **未来面临的风险**
* **伊朗局势潜在升级：** 帕普（Pape）教授强调这是一个危险，伊朗在经济上受到窒息，鉴于他们实际上已经见证了美国的政权更迭，他们可能会升级军事打击目标以打破僵局。
* **总体前景：** 主持人预计风险资产将缓慢走低，债券市场将迎来反弹，并将密切关注中东潜在的冲突爆发。
Here is a summary of the Markets Weekly podcast, published on November 8, 2026 (with the episode recorded on November 7th), based strictly on the provided transcript:
### **Economic Data and Labour Market**
* **Productivity Data:** Last week's productivity data was much stronger than expected. This may be AI bleeding into hard data. Big tech companies show productivity gains as revenue increases while headcounts decline. While AI increases overall wealth in terms of goods and services produced (such as instant research reports), the host cautions that not many people will make money off of it.
* **Employment Data:**
* JOLTS (job openings in the U.S.) was notably stronger than expected with a big jump, indicating increasing demand for labor.
* The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report was strong across the board: headline job creation beat expectations, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, labor force participation increased, and wage growth accelerated.
* The strong labor market means the Fed does not need to worry about its labor market mandate and only needs to focus on inflation, keeping it on track for a December hike despite recent market hiccups.
### **Political Shifts: The "Blue Revolution" and the End of MAGA**
* **The Fall of the MAGA Movement:** The host declares the end of MAGA—the most influential political movement in the U.S. over the past decade that brought two terms of President Trump. The movement's consolidation into a "dictatorship-level" party with absolute loyalty to the President meant that all victories and subsequent defeats belonged to him.
* **The Midterm Extinction-Level Event:** Last week's midterm elections resulted in a "Blue Revolution" and a total repudiation of the Trump era:
* Democrats won both the Senate and the House.
* The Senate map resulted in projected Democratic majorities, such as reaching 56 seats, alongside losses for Republicans in Texas, Kansas, and Mississippi.
* State governorships and legislatures were swept by Democrats, including in Texas (Greg Abbott's previously safe seat), Georgia, and Nevada, wiping out a generation of Republican politicians.
* The Senate map for 2028 is unfavorable to Republicans, making a decade of Democratic rule likely, a potential loss of the White House in 2028 (betting markets put a nearly 70% chance on Democrats taking it), and eventual turnover of the Supreme Court as older Republican-appointed justices (like Justice Thomas) retire.
* **Reasons for Voter Backlash:** Voters felt the economy was not working for them due to high inflation hurting living standards. Key grievances included:
* Presidential policy choices raising import prices (tariffs) and gas prices (the Iran war).
* Perceptions of corruption, including the President's family becoming historically wealthy, selling faster subscriptions to Truth Social, unaddressed Epstein files despite a promise to "drain the swamp," and dissatisfaction with immigration enforcement.
### **Market Implications and Asset Prices**
* **Data Centers and the AI Trade:**
* The incoming Democratic control threatens the AI trade and data center build-outs. State-level Democratic governors and legislators in places like Texas and Georgia are proposing pauses, more regulation, investigations, environmental impact fees, and opposition to data centers due to electricity prices, noise, water contamination, and job displacement fears.
* Fundamental reasons were already weighing on data centers, such as massive algorithmic improvements increasing the supply of tokens (estimated by Brandon Carl on *Benny and the Squirrel* at 13x token deflation a year), making the AI trade overbuilt.
* Market reaction: Tech imploded last week, with the NASDAQ losing its 200-day moving average and the S&P 500 forming a double top and trending lower, though a severe crash is not expected immediately heading into the seasonably positive Christmas period.
* **Oil Prices and Geopolitics:**
* Oil prices imploded last week due to a higher likelihood of the Iran war ending. Senator Schumer (potential Senate Majority Leader) discussed defunding the war, and Vice President J.D. Vance publicly broke with the President on Twitter, blaming election losses on the Iran war.
* Dissenting voices want to exit Iran, though some Israeli propagandists within the Republican Party argue for "finishing the job." Lower oil prices are expected to benefit the economy and lower inflation.
* **Tariffs and Trade:** Broad U.S. support for ending the trade war with Canada (especially after losing border-state Senate seats in Michigan, Maine, and Susan Collins' seat in Maine) suggests some tariffs will come down. Lower oil prices, data center hurdles, and lower tariffs are all positive for lowering inflation.
* **Bonds and Federal Reserve:** The host views these developments as very bullish for bonds. With affordability driving campaign messages and inflation coming down, Chair Walsh and a Democratic Congress may have more room to maneuver or even hike rates if necessary.
* **Taxes and Wealth Distribution:**
* Democratic governance favors redistribution (free healthcare, education, childcare) funded by higher taxes.
* While wealth taxes failed in California, broader public support exists for higher corporate, capital gains, or ordinary income taxes. U.S. taxes are currently low relative to GDP and OECD peers (unlike highly taxed France).
* While higher taxes may not severely impact economic growth, they will reduce corporate earnings and financial asset purchases, leading to a less case-shaped economy that is better for the median person but less favorable for asset prices. Green energy themes like solar may also come into focus.
### **Risks Moving Forward**
* **Potential Escalation in Iran:** Highlighted as a danger by Professor Pape, Iran is choked economically and might escalate military targets to break the stalemate, given that they have effectively witnessed regime change in the U.S.
* **Overall Outlook:** The host expects risk assets to grind lower, a rally in the bond market, and a watchful eye on potential Middle East flare-ups.
摘要
#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
00:55 - Labor and Productivity
03:31 - Blue Revolution
09:21 - Markets react
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
你好，朋友们。今天是11月7日，欢迎来到《市场每周》。好的，各位。历史上总有一些重大的转折点，而上周看起来就是其中之一。我相信，上周标志着MAGA（让美国再次伟大）时代的结束。MAGA是过去十年美国最具影响力的政治运动，它带来了特朗普总统的两个任期，改变了国内政治，并且当然也撼动了全球国际秩序。我们已经看到一些直接的影响，比如AI贸易的崩溃。但我认为，还会有更多变化，因为我们正迎来约十年的民主党统治。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is November 7th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, guys. So every now and then we have big turning points in history, and it looks like last week was one of them. Last week, I believe it was the end of MAGA. MAGA had been the most influential political movement in the US the past decade. It brought us two terms of President Trump, changed domestic politics, and of course, shook the global international order. And we already see some of the immediate implications with the implosion of the AI trade. But I think there's more to come because we're being set up for about a decade of Democrat rule.
在我们讨论这对美国经济和资产价格可能意味着什么之前，先从上周的数据开始，然后再谈论“蓝色革命”。很多人关注人工智能革命，并认为我们应该迎来一个生产力的繁荣。毕竟，人工智能取得了巨大进展，可能会替代很多白领岗位，因此我们应该看到生产力大幅提升。然而，直到上周之前，我们一直没有看到这种情况。上周的生产力数据出乎意料地强劲，这可能是人工智能正在渗透到核心数据中的表现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so before we talk about what that might mean for the US economy and asset prices, let's first start with the data last week, and then we'll talk about the Blue Revolution. So many people have been looking at the AI revolution and thinking that we should also have a productivity boom. After all, AI has been improving tremendously and can probably replace a lot of white collar jobs. So we should be having a lot of productivity gains. But so far, we haven't seen any until last week. Now, last week's productivity data was much stronger than expected, and that could be AI bleeding into the heart data.
我们已经看到，一些大型科技公司在员工数量减少的情况下，收入仍在增长，这就是生产力提升的表现。生产力的定义就是，即使你的投入不变或减少，但产出增加。这些科技公司本身就具备AI的优势，所以在这些企业中率先看到生产力提升是意料之中的。提到生活水平，生产力是最重要的因素。然而，我要提醒大家，这并不意味着你就能因此赚钱。例如，我想了解20世纪80年代阿富汗的水培技术。我可以让AI为我撰写一份相关的研究报告，我能马上得到这个结果，这能算作真实的产品和服务产出，我因为获取了这个知识而变得更“富有”。但实际上，我并没有为此付出任何费用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We already see productivity gains in big tech companies where the revenue continues to increase even as their headcount declines, right? That's the very definition of productivity, having the same, having increased in output even as your inputs either don't change or decline. So the tech companies are AI native, so you'd expect to see productivity gains there before anywhere else. Productivity is the most important thing when it comes to living standards. However, I must caution everyone, that doesn't mean you're going to make money. So, for example, let's say that I want to know about hydroponics in Afghanistan in the 1980s, right? If I wanted to know about that, I could have AI compose a research report for me on the topic. I could get that instantly, and that would be real goods and services produced, and I would be wealthier because I get to have this piece of knowledge. However, I didn't pay anything for it.
因此，再次强调，把商品和服务的增长与货币因素区分开来。我仍然相信，人工智能会让我们整体变得更富裕，但并不是很多人能从中直接赚钱。接着谈谈就业数据。本周一开始就有就业职位空缺报告（JOLTS），结果比预期更强劲。JOLTS是指美国的职位空缺数量，这次大幅上升，表明对劳动力的需求增加。接下来是非农就业报告（NFP）。整体来看，NFP数据表现强劲。总体上，新创造的岗位数量远超预期。失业率下降到4.1%。劳动参与率增加，工资增长加速。美国的劳动力市场很强劲。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, again, separate the increased production in goods and services from the monetary side. I continue to believe that we will all be wealthier from AI, but not many people will make money off of it. Moving on to the employment data. Well, the week began with jolts, and jolts was notably stronger than expected. So, jolts is the number of job openings in the U.S., and it was a big jump, suggesting increasing demand for labor. Moving on to the NFP report. NFP was strong across the board. On a headline basis, many more jobs created than expected. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%. Labor force participation increased, and wage growth accelerated. The labor market in the U.S. is strong.
从美联储的角度来看，这意味着他们不必担心劳动力市场的任务。他们只需关注通货膨胀，因为通货膨胀仍然过高。尽管上周市场出现了波动，美联储仍计划在12月加息。现在，让我们来谈谈更有趣的"蓝色革命"。自2015年特朗普在特朗普大厦的楼梯上宣布参选以来，我一直在关注他。当时，他确实在做一些非常革命性的事情：他反对自由贸易和非法移民。在那时候，两个党派中几乎没有人支持这些立场。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And from a Fed perspective, that means they don't have to worry about their labor market mandate. They only have to worry about inflation, which remains too high. On track for a December hike, not withstanding the hiccup we got in the markets the past week. Okay, now we talk about the more interesting blue revolution. So, I've been following President Trump since he descended the staircase in Trump Tower in 2015 and announced his candidacy. At that time, he was really doing something truly revolutionary. He was against free trade and against illegal immigration. There was really no voice in either party at that time that supported those positions.
这在当时是美国工人阶级非常普遍的立场。工人阶级在自由贸易时代失去了许多工作机会，因为这些工作被转移到了国外。与此同时，非法移民跨越边境而来，增加了低技能劳动力的供给，与他们形成竞争。这就导致工人阶级的工资下降，尽管一些评论员和经济学家宣称劳动人口增加对工资没有影响。但显然，低收入工人对此有不同的感受。这种政治立场推动他在共和党内获得提名，并最终在2016年击败希拉里·克林顿，成为美国总统。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, that was a popular position for the working class in America. The working class had seen their jobs offshored during the era of free trade. And now, illegal immigrants coming across the border. And that's increased supply of low-skilled labor that was competing for them. So, pushing their wages lower, notwithstanding all the propaganda from the talking heads and the economists, right? Telling you that, oh, increasing amount of labor doesn't have an impact on wages. Well, obviously, the low-wage workers themselves felt differently. And that political position propelled him to take the nomination in the GOP and eventually defeat Hillary Clinton to become President of the United States in 2016.
老实说，这确实是一次革命性的变化，因为当时布什家族和克林顿家族是美国最显赫的政治世家。当然，这位总统在2020年输了，并且在许多人眼中有些丢脸，然而在2024年又卷土重来，赢得了普选票。如果故事在那时结束，那这将是一个美丽的好莱坞故事。在过去几年中，这位总统在共和党内巩固了权力，几乎成为了一种独裁体制，对吧？如果你看过内阁报告，内阁会议，大家基本上都是在说，总统，您真是了不起，领导能力太棒了。哇。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Honestly, it was truly revolutionary because at that time, the Bush family and the Clinton family were the most prominent political dynasties in the United States. Of course, the president would go on to lose in 2020 and in many eyes kind of disgraced himself only to come back in 2024 and win the popular vote. Again, this is a beautiful Hollywood story if it only ended then. So, over the past couple of years, the president consolidated power within the Republican Party and it kind of became a dictatorship, right? If you watch the cabinet report, cabinet meetings, everyone is basically, oh, president, you're such a great guy, great leadership. Wow.
你知道，这简直就像北朝鲜那样。他成了共和党的中心，一切都围绕着他。他决定一切，传达信息，其他人基本上都在求他赐福。所以，所有的胜利都是他的，现在所有的失败也是他的。上周的中期选举，我们过去几周一直在谈论此事。民调显示民主党将赢得参议院和众议院，结果他们确实赢了。但老实说，有些人把这形容成一次灭绝级别的事件，我认为确实是这样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, it was like North Korea-level stuff. And so, he became the Republican Party. It was all about him. He made all the calls, shared the messaging, and everyone was just there to basically beg for his blessing. So, all the victory belonged to him, and now all the defeat belongs to him as well. So, last week's midterm elections, we've been talking about it for the past few weeks. The polls were suggesting the Democrats will win the Senate and the House, which they did, but honestly, some people describe it as an extinction-level event, and I think it was.
现在，我们单说参议院，本来对共和党有利的情况下，他们失去了德克萨斯和堪萨斯，而且看起来还会失去密西西比。所以，最终看来民主党将在参议院中拥有56个席位，占据多数。再看一层，在州长选举中，共和党失去德克萨斯州的州长位置。要知道，那可是格雷格·阿博特的席位，通常被认为是一个非常安全的席位，却也丢了，乔治亚州长、内华达州长，还有州议会的位置也都失去了。实际上，这等于彻底抹去了共和党一代政客的优势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, just looking at the Senate, which was favorable to the Republicans at the time, lost Texas, lost Kansas, looks like you're going to lose Mississippi as well. So, at the end of the day, it looks like the Democrats will have 56 seats on the Senate, a majority, going one level lower, looking at the state governorships, lost Texas. I mean, that's Greg Abbott's seat, widely considered to be a very safe seat, but swept away, Georgia governorship, Nevada governorship, state legislators as well. So, that is, honestly, it's just basically wiped away a generation of Republican politicians.
那么，人们为什么如此不满呢？根据民调，原因其实很简单。他们觉得经济对自己并不有利。这主要涉及到一些日常生活的问题。他们似乎对经济感到不满，因为通货膨胀依然居高不下，这真的影响了他们的生活水平。他们特别对总统感到愤怒，因为，嗯，对，通货膨胀部分是由于他的政策选择造成的。比如说，加征关税，本来是想通过这个策略来将国内产业带回本土，但这确实提高了进口商品的价格。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, why were the people so upset? The polling suggests that it's really simple. They did not feel that the economy was working for them. It was all about these kitchen table issues. And they seem to be unhappy with the economy because inflation remains too high, and that's really hurting their living standards. They're particularly mad at the president because, well, yeah, inflation is high in part because of his policy choices. So, tariffs, again, they were good rationale for that, try to reshore domestic industry, but that did raise the price of imports.
全年战争显然导致了汽油价格上涨。因此，人们选出了特朗普总统，希望能让生活更实惠，但他却做了相反的事情。当然，还有其他问题，例如腐败的印象。总统的家庭变得更加富有，比美国历史上任何一届总统家庭都富有得多。我是说，总统甚至在出售Truth Social的高级订阅，从而帮助交易者等等。这确实是另一个层次的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Year-round war, obviously raising the price of gas. So, they elected President Trump to make things more affordable, but he did the opposite. Of course, some other issues were, of course, a perception of corruption. The president's family did become even more wealthy, much more than any other presidential family over the past, you know, actually since the history of the United States. I mean, the president is even selling faster subscriptions to Truth Social to help traders and so forth. Yeah, that's just another level of stuff.
《爱泼斯坦档案》指出，他被任命是为了清理“沼泽地”，但似乎没有做到这一点。同时，移民执法的方式也让人不满。这基本上是对特朗普时代的彻底否定。这具有重要影响，因为2028年的参议院选举对共和党不利。看起来共和党可能会失去参议院长达十年。而且，如果现在的民意这么不支持他们，那么在2028年似乎也有可能失去白宫。博彩市场预测，民主党赢得白宫的概率接近70%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The Epstein files, he was hired to drain the swamp, didn't seem to do that. And there was also unhappiness with how immigration enforcement was done. Basically, a total repudiation of the Trump era. And that has really big implications because the Senate map in 2028 is not favorable to Republicans. So, it looks like the Republicans will lose the Senate for a decade. And if you're this unpopular right now, it looks like you'll probably lose the White House in 2028. The betting markets are saying that there's almost a 70% chance that the Democrats would take the White House.
如果你赢得了白宫，但他们拿下了参议院，那么你就会失去最高法院。 目前，最高法院中共和党提名的法官占多数，但许多法官年事已高，比如托马斯大法官。因此，他们会退休，而很可能会由民主党总统来任命继任者。所以，共和党似乎将失去政府的所有分支，接下来的十年将由民主党主导。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If you take the White House and they take the Senate, well, you know, you're losing the Supreme Court as well. Right now, Republican-appointed justices have a majority on the Supreme Court, but many justices are old, like Justice Thomas. So, they're going to retire and they're probably going to be replaced by a Democrat president. So, it looks like the Republicans are going to lose all branches of the government and will have Democrat rule for the next decade.
现在，需要说明的是，这种情况有时会发生，比如在伊拉克战争的灾难之后，共和党陷入混乱，直到特朗普出现后他们才重新整合。所以，你知道，政党有时会崩溃，暂时迷失方向，然后重新组建自己。这是完全正常的。但是，我们上周看到的崩溃真的是非常非常具有历史意义的。因此，这直接影响到了资产价格。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, to be clear, this happens sometimes, like after the disaster of the Iraq war, you know, Republicans were in disarray, and it wasn't until Trump came along that they regroup. So, you know, political parties implode, go out into the wilderness, and then reconstitute themselves. Totally normal. But the implosion we saw last week was really, really historic. And so, that's immediately spilling over into asset prices.
所以，如果世界由民主党主导，首先，当然，第一个影响就是我们讨论过的那个人工智能法案可能不会像我们预期的那样推进。民主党在竞选时反对的是数据中心。数据中心是一个80/20的问题：大多数人不喜欢数据中心。它会提高电价，可能会产生噪音，甚至可能污染水源。而且，最终，它可能会取代人类的工作。值得注意的是，特朗普总统曾支持数据中心。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, a Democrat-controlled world, first, of course, first implication, of course, is that, you know, that AI bill that we've been talking about might not go forward as much as we expected. So, one of the things Democrats campaigned on was against data centers. A data center is very much an 80/20 issue. The people don't like data centers. It drives electricity prices up. Maybe it makes noises. Maybe it contaminates the water. And, of course, ultimately, it's going to replace them, to take their jobs. And, you know, President Trump was supportive of data centers.
其他人没有这样做。所以，现在，即使在很多数据中心活动发生的州一级，你可以看到很多数据中心正在德克萨斯州和乔治亚州建设。而新上任的民主党州长和州议员并不是说一切都会停止，但他们建议我们需要暂停一下，以便进行更多的监管和调查。可能他们会需要更多的环境影响费用或者类似的措施。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Everyone else was not. And so, now that we have even -- so, on the state level, which is where a lot of the data center stuff is happening, you can see that a lot of the data centers were being built in Texas and in Georgia. And incoming Democratic governors and state legislators, they're not suggesting that, you know, everything's going to stop, but they're suggesting that we're going to pause for more regulation, more investigation, and so forth. Maybe they'll need more environmental impact fees or something like that.
所以，至少数据中心的建设速度会变慢。其实，早就有一些基本原因反对数据中心的扩建。Brandon Carl在一个名为《Benny and the Squirrel》的播客中提到，通过算法的巨大改进，我们实际上可以在同样的计算能力下处理更多的代币。也就是说，代币的供应量在显著增加。他还建议，目前代币每年可能有13倍的通缩。因此，早就面临过度建设的问题的人工智能树已经开始动摇。现在，我们面临更多的干扰问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, at the very least, the data center build-out is going to be slower. Now, there were already fundamental reasons that we're arguing against the data center build-out. There's a good podcast by Brandon Carl on Benny and the Squirrel discussing how massive improvements in algorithms had really meant that we could have more tokens per unit of compute. So, basically, the supply of tokens has been increasing significantly. He suggests that maybe there's 13x token deflation a year now. And so, we were already on the cusp of, you know, the EI tree being shaky on the grounds of being overbuilt. And now we have, you know, more disruptions.
上周，你可以看到市场开始更加关注数据中心的建设情况。科技股真的出现了大幅下跌。纳斯达克指数跌破了200日移动平均线，尤其是在星期四，表现非常不好。相比之下，标准普尔500指数表现稍好，维持在200日移动平均线以上。但是从整体情况来看，我们似乎遇到了双顶，并且趋势在走低。这并不意味着我们会崩盘。我仍然认为这将是一个渐进的过程。比如，通话速度（call speed）在年初急剧上升，随后一个月内下降了40%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, last week, you can see the market beginning to price in more concern about the data center build-out. Tech really, really imploded. You have the NASDAQ losing the 200-day moving average and really just kind of having a really, really bad day on Thursday. The S&P 500 holding up a bit better, maintaining the 200-day moving average. But just looking at it, it really looks like we had a double top and are trending lower. It doesn't mean we're going to crash. I continue to believe that this will be kind of a process, right? I mean, look at the call speed. Went parabolic earlier in the year, declined by 40% in a month.
它有点徘徊了两个月，最近又开始走向了较低点。所以，我猜这就是接下来会发生的情况。我们正进入一年中季节性积极的时期，快到圣诞节了。所以，不要觉得我们会崩盘。但似乎趋势已经改变了。随着 EI 交易的崩溃，市场将不得不在其中筛选出新的叙事方向。这对资产价格有一定影响。另一个非常明显的影响是油价走低。如果你看看油价，上周也出现了大幅下跌。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It kind of meandered for two months and then took the next late lower recently. So, my best guess is that's what's going to happen. We are heading into a seasonably positive time of the year, into Christmas. So, you know, don't think we're going to crash. But it does seem like the trend has changed. As the EI trade implodes, the market is going to have to sift through this and find a new narrative. So, that was one implication on asset prices. The other very clear implication is lower oil prices. If you look at the price of oil, also imploded last week.
现在，这很大程度上是因为伊朗战争有更多机会结束。参议员舒默表示可能会成为参议院多数党领袖，他谈到可能会削减战争资金。但更重要的是，副总统J.D.范斯在推特上公开与总统意见不合，指责失败是由于伊朗战争。这表明在总统周围，有更多反对的声音希望撤出伊朗。不过，需要明确的是，仍然有人认为：“是的，这确实因为伊朗战争，但问题在于我们没能完成任务。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, that is in large part because there is more of a chance that the Iran war is going to end. You had Senator Schumer, who may be Senate Majority Leader, talk about maybe defunding the war. But more importantly, you had Vice President J.D. Vance on Twitter publicly break with the president, blaming the loss on the Iran war. That tells you that there is more dissenting voices in the president's orbit wanting to get out of Iran. Now, to be clear, there are still people who say that, "Yes, it's because of the Iran war, but it's because we didn't finish the job."
现在，说实话，我真的不知道这是什么意思。我觉得这就像在说真正的伊朗战争从未尝试过一样。但是，我在想，那是核战争吗？还是说是五十万的地面部队入侵？我觉得这太愚蠢了。这些人基本上就是以色列的宣传者，已经没有人相信他们了。但是，共和党内还是有一些噪音在说我们应该离开伊朗。这一切都在暗示油价将会下跌，这对经济可能是有利的，也有助于缓解通货膨胀。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, honestly, I have no idea what that means. I mean, that's like saying real Iran war has never been tried. But, I mean, is that nuclear war? Is that half a million invasion ground force? I mean, it's so stupid. I mean, these guys are basically Israeli propagandists, and no one believes them anymore. But still, more noise within the Republican Party that we got to get out of Iran. And so that's all suggesting that oil prices are going to come down, and maybe that would be good for the economy and would be good for inflation.
展望未来，当然，这也意味着一些事情。另外，还有一件事需要提及。当然，另一个热门主题是希望贸易战能有解决方案，尤其是在与加拿大的关系方面。我认为在美国有广泛的支持，认为美国不应该和加拿大处于贸易战中。加拿大是我们的朋友，可能和中国有冲突，但对加拿大这样做是愚蠢的。特别是在像密歇根和缅因这样的边境州举行选举时，那里的参议员可能会失去支持。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Looking ahead, of course, that also suggests that. Oh, one other thing. So, another popular theme, of course, was some resolution from the trade war, especially when it comes to Canada. Now, I think there's broad support in the U.S. that, you know, the U.S. should not be in a trade war with Canada. Canada is our friend, maybe against China, whatever, but, you know, against Canada, that's stupid. Especially when you're having an election in border states like Michigan and Maine, or the senators in those states did lose.
即使是缅因州长期在政坛中坚韧不拔的苏珊·柯林斯，似乎也要面对一些关税的下调。此外，油价下降、数据中心的问题、关税降低，这些对通胀来说都是利好的，对吗？公众传递出的强烈政治讯息是他们对生活成本感到担忧，而这一点成为了成功的竞选宣传重点。因此，政界人士会将重点放在解决这个问题上。这也让美联储在必要时有更多的空间来进行加息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Even Susan Collins in Maine, who has been a long political survivor. So, it looks like some tariffs will come down as well. Now, lower oil prices, data center, you know, hiccups, lower tariffs, that's all positive for inflation, right? So, the strong political message that the public is sending is that affordability is a problem, and that's the winning campaign message. So, the political class is going to try to target that. That also gives the Fed more room to maneuver, more room to hike rates, if necessary.
请记住，美联储不对总统负责，而是对国会负责。现在，我们有一个民主党主导的国会。坦率地讲，主席沃尔什一直立场比较鹰派。因此，他可能会更倾向于加息，甚至有可能加息过度，尽管目前市场并没有这种预期。所以，我认为这对于债券市场来说非常利好，并且我觉得通胀会下降。还有一件事就是，展望未来时还要考虑税收问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Remember, the Fed is not accountable to the president. It's accountable to Congress. Now, we have a Democratic Congress, and honestly, Chair Walsh was always a hawk. So, maybe he will have more willingness to hike, maybe even hike too much, although that is not in the market at the moment. So, I think this is all very bullish for bonds, and inflation suggests to me it will come down. One other thing, when you look at this going forward, has to do with taxes.
民主治理实际上是一种基本的、更偏向再分配的模式。因此，我们会给民众提供更多的免费服务，比如医疗、教育、育儿等。而支撑这些服务的方式自然是通过提高税收。虽然在加州，财富税未能成功推行，这似乎没得到公众的支持，但在全美范围内，提高税收确实得到了广泛的支持。这些税收可能是提高企业税、资本利得税或普通所得税。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, the Democratic governance is very much a kind of basic, more redistribution model. So, we're going to give the people more free stuff, maybe healthcare, education, childcare, stuff like that. And their formula for praying for it, of course, is higher taxes. Now, the wealth tax in California failed, so that doesn't seem to have any public support. But higher taxes in the U.S., yes, I think there is broad public support for that. It could be higher corporate taxes. It could be higher capital gains taxes. It could be higher ordinary income taxes.
回过头来看，将美国与其他国家进行比较，可以看到美国的税收确实相对较低，或者说相对于国内生产总值（GDP）来说，美国的税收在经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家中处于较低水平。当然，税收较高的国家有法国。法国的税负非常高。需要注意的是，即便他们税负很高，并且即便他们为公众提供了许多由纳税人负担的免费商品和服务，人们仍然感到非常不快乐。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Taking a step back, looking at the U.S. compared to other countries, you can see that in the U.S., taxes are indeed relatively low, or taxes relative to GDP, on the low end of the OECD. On the high end, of course, there's France. France is very highly taxed. And keep in mind, though, even as they're highly taxed, even as they provide many free goods and services to the public, not free, paid for by the taxpayer goods and services to others, the people there continue to be very unhappy.
无论如何，美国的税率还有上调的空间。我认为这不会对经济增长产生很大影响，但我觉得对金融市场的影响会比较大。这当然意味着公司利润会减少。坦白说，当你有很多钱时，往往会用来购买金融资产。因此，当经济形态不那么理想时，这意味着购买股票的人会减少。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
In any case, there is room for tax rates to go up in the U.S., and I don't think it's going to have a big impact on economic growth, but I think it will have a big impact on the financial markets. That's, of course, less earnings for companies. And honestly, when you have a lot of money, what you spend your money on is to buy financial assets. So when you have maybe less of a case-shaped economy, that suggests that there are few people buying stocks.
这可能对普通人来说是一个更好的社会模式，但似乎对资产价格不太有利，这是我们需要考虑的问题。现在有很多人投资于绿色能源，比如太阳能等，这可能会成为一个趋势。因此，我们实际上正在迎来国家发展中的一个重大转折点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it could be a better social model for the median person, but it doesn't seem like it's going to be good for asset prices. And that's something that we have to think about going forward. And there are many people who are betting on, say, more of the green energy stuff, solar and so forth, and maybe that will be a theme as well. So what we're looking at really is a big watershed moment in the country.
我认为债券市场将会是最大的赢家，因为你知道，所有促使美联储加息的因素都在逆转。现在大家都明白，负担能力是一个重要的竞选议题。不过，我认为从现在到今年年底之间，有一个风险就是伊朗局势可能升级。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think the big winner is going to be the bond market, because, you know, all the things that were causing the Fed to hike, they're being reversed. And everyone understands now that affordability is a key campaign issue. Now, the one risk between now and the end of next year, end of this year, I think, is potential escalation in Iran.
我认为这种情况不会发生。但正如很多聪明的人，比如帕普教授所指出的，目前的局势非常危险。这可能会很危险，因为伊朗可能会升级冲突。他们正面临经济困境，也许他们认为，鉴于美国已经经历了一定的政权更迭，借此可以打破僵局，所以可能会继续冒险，甚至对军事目标进行升级。因此，目前人们对这种可能性感到担忧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I don't think that will happen. But, again, many, many smart people, like Professor Pape, continue to highlight this as a very dangerous time. It could be dangerous because maybe Iran will escalate. They are being choked economically, and maybe they can see that one way to break the stalemate, given that they've kind of done regime change in the U.S., would be to just further press their luck and maybe escalate on military targets. So that's something that people are afraid of at the moment.
所以展望未来，我还是认为风险资产会持续下跌，债券市场可能会上涨，而中东局势可能会有爆发的风险。所以让我们拭目以待，确实是一个全球局势颇具看点的时期。好了，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家的收听。我们下周再见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So but going forward, though, I continue to think just grinding down lower in risk assets, rally in bond markets with a potential flare up in the Middle East. So let's see what happens definitely in an interesting time in the world. All right. So that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Talk to you guys next week.