Strong jobs, a broken AI trade, and a panel that thinks both are fine | Market Hang
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摘要
The October payroll print came in at 165,000 against forecasts near 59,000. An economist on the panel says that is more than the labor market needs, that unemployment in the low fours is full employment, and that inflation is still running ahead of wages. He argues AI will not show up in the productivity data for another three to five years, and that this week's correction was healthy. He has two data centers going up within an hour of his house in Austin, and says the backlash is overstated. A Politico reporter on what a divided Congress can pass. The panel also takes on congressional stock trading and prediction markets.
Market Hang is live weekdays 12:30-1:30pm ET on Yahoo Finance.
Timestamps
0:00 The tape at 8:29, and a September bet nobody wants replayed
1:13 What it actually takes to stabilize the labor market
2:23 Full employment, and the inflation that outruns it
3:30 The jobs number was a surprise, and the economy is still holding up
4:57 Are fewer jobs better for the market now
7:05 The tech sector over-hired, and is still right-sizing
9:14 An economist on what the tech industry has been promising
10:19 Nobody on this panel was selling yesterday
11:28 The biggest growth story of three years closed down on the year
12:36 The weighted average cost of capital is back
14:39 Can a ten trillion dollar estimate possibly land
16:02 A railroad boom, one third larger
18:00 The announcements that carried on regardless
19:31 Rotating capital out of one concentrated trade
20:40 An industry asked to be regulated and the government declined
23:00 How this could end
25:38 Two data centers an hour from my house
26:45 What the locals actually want
28:55 Is there a way to make money from more regulation
30:24 Can a divided Congress pass anything
31:30 The budget route, and a very broad coalition
32:40 Does the president care more about legacy than 2028
35:30 The two issues the exit polls put on top
37:20 Are the politicians even watching the market
38:46 Is it in the market's interest that corruption gets dealt with
40:25 The rule that was proposed in 2012 and never passed
41:35 Can anything sweeping actually get done
43:11 The biggest political realignment since 1974
44:31 Does the rulebook apply at a certain level of wealth
47:03 Should forecasters worry about prediction markets
49:30 A backlash that is already building
51:50 What the platforms knew, and when
53:02 Does the AI listing happen by the end of the year
55:38 One panelist thinks it happens, and lands nowhere near
#JobsReport #AISelloff #PredictionMarkets #MarketHang #YahooFinance
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