October 2026 FOMC Debrief

在这期10月28日的10月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）复盘播客中，主持人详细剖析了由主席沃什（Chair Warsh）领导的联邦公开市场委员会会议和新闻发布会。在会议召开前，市场预计美联储不会采取任何行动，因为在9月启动了一轮小型加息周期之后，市场已经消化了12月、3月和季度的三次额外加息。尽管期望值较低，但此次会议仍提供了引人注目的见解和一个鹰派的意外。 首先，FOMC声明提升了对经济的评估，将生产率描述为强劲，并强调通胀仍然过高。该声明有两个引人注目的反对票：一贯的鹰派人士哈马克行长（President Hammack），以及库克理事（Governor Cook），这是她有史以来的第一次投反对票。主持人指出，在此之前，她曾面临与其抵押贷款文件有关的近期压力和即将到来的听证会。 其次，主持人分析了主席沃什对金融状况的立场，这是美联储影响通胀的主要机制。虽然沃什主席此前曾表示金融状况并不具有限制性，但在新闻发布会上，他依然坚持这一鹰派观点，称尽管总体金融状况已经收紧，但他既不愿意也不大可能称之为紧缩。这表明他希望继续加息，使其与市场定价保持一致。 第三，主持人强调了美联储会议日程表的一个意外变化。虽然美联储明年仍将保持八次会议，但其中只有七次是实际的货币政策会议，另一次将专门用于宏观战略，届时不会变动利率。此外，沃什主席暗示，到2028年，将只有六次实际会议和两次战略会议。主持人指出，缩小这一行动窗口正在短期利率市场引起一些短期的混乱和恐慌，导致前端利率下降和长期利率遭到抛售，从而导致收益率曲线陡峭化。 第四，该播客涵盖了美联储对高于预期的通胀背后的驱动因素的看法：关税推高了价格、无法控制的能源价格，以及由人工智能基础设施建设驱动的需求冲击。针对人工智能建设者对利率免疫的说法（因为他们会不惜一切代价支付），沃什主席表示怀疑，断言利率会“渗透到各个缝隙中”并影响几乎所有事情。主持人对此表示赞同，指出科技股板块最近的挣扎、新兴云（neocloud）股票的暴跌、融资成本的上升，以及资本化率正在上升的商业地产的困境。这证明了利率正在发挥作用，并且还有更多的工作要做。 展望从现在到12月这段时间，美联储打算等待更多的数据。主持人预测，除非实质性的股票市场修正导致交易暴跌，否则12月加息的可能性仍然很大。主持人最后承诺将于周六回归。

In this October FOMC debrief podcast from October 28th, the host breaks down the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and press conference led by Chair Warsh. Heading into the meeting, the market expected the Fed to do nothing, having priced in three more rate hikes on a quarterly cadence for December, March, and June, following a mini hiking cycle initiated in September. Despite low expectations, the meeting provided notable insights and a hawkish surprise. First, the FOMC statement upgraded the economy's assessment, describing productivity as strong and emphasizing that inflation remains too high. The statement featured two notable dissents: President Hammack, a consistent hawk, and Governor Cook, marking her first-ever dissent, which the host notes follows recent pressure and upcoming hearings concerning her mortgage documents. Second, the host analyzes Chair Warsh’s stance on financial conditions, the primary mechanism the Fed uses to impact inflation. While Chair Walsh previously stated that financial conditions were not restrictive, he maintained this hawkish view during the press conference, stating that while overall financial conditions have tightened, he is unwilling and unable to call them tight. This indicates that he wants to continue hiking rates, keeping it aligned with market pricing. Third, the host highlights a surprise change to the calendar for Fed meetings. While the Fed will maintain eight meetings next year, only seven will be live monetary policy meetings, with one dedicated to bigger-picture strategies where interest rates will not be moved. Furthermore, Chair Warsh suggested that by 2028, there will only be six live meetings and two strategy meetings. The host notes that shrinking this window of action is causing some short-term havoc and panic in short-term interest rate markets, leading to front-end interest rates coming down and a sell-off in the long-end, resulting in a steepening of the curve. Fourth, the podcast covers the Fed's perception of the drivers behind higher-than-expected inflation: tariffs pushing prices higher, uncontrollable energy prices, and a demand shock driven by AI build-outs. Addressing the narrative that AI builders are immune to interest rates because they will pay whatever it takes, Chair Warsh expressed skepticism, asserting that interest rates "get in the cracks" and affect almost everything. The host agrees, pointing to recent struggles in the technology complex, neocloud equities tanking, rising financing costs, and distress in commercial real estate where cap rates are increasing. This proves that interest rates are working and have more work to do. Looking ahead between now and December, the Fed intends to wait for more data. The host predicts that unless a substantial equity market correction causes a tumble in the trade, a rate hike in December remains likely. The host concludes by promising to return on Saturday.