You Might Want to Skip This Tesla Video ⚡️

**视频的简介和目的** * 演讲者承认这段视频可能不会受欢迎，并可能导致损失数百名订阅者，但强烈认为这些话必须说出来。 * 恳请观众点赞视频，并在接下来的几周和几个月内试用赞助商 Surfshark。 * 多年来，演讲者制作了许多视频，告诉观众要坚持住、再等一会儿、看到正在发生的好事，并指出特斯拉过去几年的叙事一直在关于增长、财务表现和股价表现方面拖延时间（踢皮球）。 * 几年前，演讲者有意从视频中删除了短期特斯拉买卖活动、期权讨论、不同价位以及短期预期，这样人们就不会尾随演讲者，并确保幕后投资活动不会改变演讲者的客观性。 * 演讲者坚信，买入并持有 5 年、10 年、15 年或 20 年最终会奏效。 * 然而，演讲者现在觉得，在特斯拉股票感觉像是“死钱”的时期（如当前），如果不讨论短期策略，就是一种失职，这些策略包括诸如把握买入时机以触及局部低点而非局部高点的简单工具。 * 促成这一转变的契机是，特斯拉的第三季度财报电话会议基本上是“换汤不换药”，把问题又往后拖了一年。 * 这并不是要贬低特斯拉在多个方面取得的实际进展，但归根结底，这取决于一家为股东创造利润的公司，而特斯拉多年来一直没有为人们兑现这一点。 * 本视频的目的不是提供财报电话会议的全盘回顾或总结（这可以通过人工智能轻松获得），而是使用数据和事实而不是情绪，来分享关键、根本且令人不安的真相。 **市场背景与净利润对比** * **全球最有价值的公司（市值与过去 12 个月净利润）：** * **英伟达：** 市值 5.1 万亿美元。 * **苹果：** 市值 5 万亿美元。（在过去 12 个月的净利润在 1290 亿美元到 2440 亿美元之间）。 * **Alphabet：** 市值 3.9 万亿美元。 * **微软：** 市值 3.9 万亿美元。 * **亚马逊（第五大）：** 市值 2.7 万亿美元。 * **太空探索技术公司（第七大）：** 市值 1.9 万亿美元（过去 12 个月净利润为负 34 亿美元）。 * **特斯拉：** 市值 1.5 万亿美元（过去 12 个月净利润 32 亿美元）。 * 前五大公司的平均每季度净利润在 400 亿美元左右。 * **特斯拉第三季度净利润数据：** * 第三季度季度净利润：7.87 亿美元（同比下降 43%）。 * 剔除股权激励（SBC）或关税影响等因素是公平的，但这些仍然是运营业务所必需的（例如，股权激励是留住埃隆和吸引顶级人才所必需的）。 * **特斯拉净利润季度趋势：** * 2024 年第一季度：14 亿美元 * 随后的季度：14 亿美元 * 接下来：21 亿美元 * 接下来：21 亿美元 * 接下来：4.09 亿美元 * 接下来：11 亿美元 * 接下来：14 亿美元 * 接下来：8.4 亿美元 * 接下来：4.7 亿美元 * 接下来：11 亿美元 * 本季度（第三季度）：7.87 亿美元 * 自 2024 年初以来，特斯拉净利润最好的一个季度是 21 亿美元。慷慨地将其年化，在一个假设的历史最佳年份里，也仅略高于 80 亿，四舍五入为 90 亿美元。 * 前五大公司每年的净利润都远远超过 1000 亿美元。特斯拉的年度净利润必须比其有史以来最好的假设年份高出一个数量级，才能在实际净利润创造方面进入同一对话行列。 * **财报的“歌舞伎戏剧”（表象化）：** * 网上的许多人都在问，当特斯拉“超越财报预期”时，为什么股价没有飙升。 * 财报在很大程度上只是一种歌舞伎戏剧：分析师每个季度（他们无论如何都不懂这家公司）提出的任意数字，而特斯拉的交付量略高于还是低于预期，本应影响股价。 * 例子：一些金融媒体预计第三季度扣除碳积分的汽车毛利率在 17% 左右，而特斯拉交付了 18.1%（超预期 1.1 个百分点）。超预期 1.1 个百分点并不能推动特斯拉达到其需要达到的水平，无法在底层财务表现上与全球最有价值的公司相提并论。 * 当看到 X 平台账户挑选数据点来证明股价应该飙升时，演讲者感到很沮丧，因为了解股票市场如何运作的人都知道，这些叙事是小题大做。 **赞助商信息整合（Surfshark）** * 即使没有登录或接受 Cookie，网站仍然可以通过数字指纹识别设备。 * ACM 互联网会议的一篇新论文表明，这些指纹在追踪用户方面比以前想象的要好得多。 * 普通的 VPN 会提供一个出口 IP 地址，但它会保持数小时或数天不变，从而帮助网站识别数字指纹。 * **Surfshark 的功能：** * IP 轮换器：每五分钟更改一次 IP 地址，同时将轮换保持在同一个国家/地区内，这样您就不会频繁被登出。 * 文本诈骗保护（iOS 和 Android）：分析短信以识别诈骗和可疑模式；在 iOS 上，自动将其移至垃圾邮件文件夹。 * Cookie 弹出拦截器和广告拦截器，用于隐藏指纹并改善在线体验。 * 其他优势：更优惠的机票和酒店价格、一个账户支持无限台设备、电子邮件掩码。 * 行动号召：前往 `surfshark.com/electrified` 或使用代码 `electrified`，即可开始 7 天免费试用并解锁 4 个月的额外 Surfshark VPN。 **社区帖子分析（杰夫·鲁茨与塞恩·巴舍尔）** * **分析杰夫·鲁茨的观点：** * *汽车售罄 / 四年来最高积压订单 / 毛利率超预期 / 扩展所有汽车工厂：* 这都很好，但特斯拉需要提高产量。在拥有二十多年的造车和供应链经验之后，为什么特斯拉会被需求的增长杀了个措手不及？虽然部分原因不在他们控制范围内，但一部分可能是由于预测不佳。除了上海超级工厂外，特斯拉的工厂并未在接近产能的情况下运行。 * *10-Q 报告中的限制因素：* 电池供应和内部调配决策（Cybercab 和 Semi）。然而，Cybercab 测试车以及大约 1,000 辆自动驾驶出租车（自夏季以来大约 4,000 辆车）加上小规模的特斯拉 Semi，并不代表大规模。调配决策并不能成为积压订单远远落后的借口。4680 电池生产是否存在挑战，还是关税/锂供应的争夺战？这一切都只是在拖延时间。 * *能源业务几乎售罄至 2027 年：* 特斯拉在各个电池工厂的装机产能为 116 吉瓦时。在过去的 12 个月中，特斯拉部署了大约 50 吉瓦时（约占装机产能的 50%）。如果 2027 年接近装机产能（从 50 提高到 100 吉瓦时），粉丝们会说人们忽视了能源部署的翻倍。然而，过去 12 个月来自 50 吉瓦时的能源盈利为 36 亿美元。在 2027 年将其翻倍，将带来四舍五入后每年 40 亿美元的增量利润。虽然这对世界和电网来说很好，但这一单一业务线无法让特斯拉的年净利润超过 1000 亿美元（而且增量毛利并不全部转化为净利润）。 * *下个月推出机器人出租车新城市 / 年底车队销售 / 有史以来最容易制造的特斯拉：* 在前几个月，新城市通常最多只有少数几辆车。年底的车队销售无法保证，华尔街对细节一无所知。如果有史以来最容易制造的特斯拉无法大规模部署，那也毫无意义（特斯拉表示，他们制造它们的速度仅根据机器人出租车网络的需求或部署能力而定）。 * *股价走势：* 特斯拉股价全年呈现高点不断降低、低点不断降低的走势，过去五年大多呈横盘整理。 * *擎天柱开始生产 / 现金流为正 50 亿美元 / 超出最初预期：* 埃隆表示，他们不打算在 2027 年底之前（至少一年多以后）商业化销售擎天柱。鉴于埃隆对机器人出租车和 FSD 的预测能力，这可能需要两年时间。在 2028 年之前，它可能不会产生收入或利润。 * *自由现金流：* 显著超出预期，但这归根结底是因为特斯拉大幅缩减了其资本支出预期。这引发了人们对市场机会或预测错误的质疑。自由现金流与创造利润的关系，不如其与现金流本身的关系大。 * **分析塞恩·巴舍尔的观点：** * 关于机器人出租车进展的观点：团队表示，机器人出租车业务可能在明年第二季度左右开始变得引人注目，并在第三或第四季度变得意义重大。翻译一下：机器人出租车在财务上产生影响还要再等一年。 * **与埃隆 2025 年第一季度声明的对比：** 埃隆在 2025 年第一季度表示，自动驾驶的繁荣将在明年年中（2026 年夏季）前后实质性生效，并在明年下半年（即现在）影响利润表。埃隆“把问题又往后拖了一年”。埃隆并不知道这究竟何时会发生，不过一线希望是，每次预测失误 1 年，就让他离正确更近一步。理性的市场参与者会折让埃隆的时间表。 * **机器人出租车安全数据：** * 新数据显示，自主行驶里程的实时计数器已超过 340 万英里（上一次电话会议以来的周增长率非常出色，正在加速）。 * 然而，它来自一个非常小的基数。 * **与 Waymo 的对比：** Waymo 的最新报告显示，其累计自动驾驶里程已超过 2.71 亿英里（截至今年 6 月），根据每周的行驶速度，可能远超 3.03 亿英里。在同类对比中，Waymo 目前领先特斯拉两个数量级。除非指数级增长率持续下去，否则这些指标短期内不会推动特斯拉股价上涨。 **对太空探索技术公司合并及估值的启示** * 这对特斯拉股东在发生合并时对太空探索技术公司应有的溢价具有巨大的启示。 * 演讲者绝不会告诉任何人如何投票，但阐述了自己的思考： * 为擎天柱和机器人出租车零部件投入了巨大的工时、会议、设计工作、供应链谈判、全球旅行、制造流程设置，通往无人监督里程的 FSD 开发，芯片开发，Cybercab 制造经验，监管和客服团队对话。 * 市场目前在特斯拉股价中给予了一定溢价（拉高的估值计入了未来的机器人出租车和擎天柱业务）。 * 然而，尽管做了所有的基础工作，股东们并没有为机器人出租车和擎天柱即将发生的事情得到补偿。 * 估值取决于提出收购要约的时间（例如，3 个月内与 2028 年初）。 * 社区成员说“为特斯拉出价 420 美元，我们都会投赞成票”：根据今天的股价，这大约是 13% 的溢价，对演讲者来说这是一个坚决的“不”。 * 阿肖克表示，任何头脑清醒的人都不应该试图像特斯拉那样去解决广义自动驾驶问题，因为长尾效应实在是太长了。 * 为了花费在那些尚未在利润表上得到回报的项目上的金钱、时间和脑力，股东理应得到补偿。30% 的溢价感觉是最低底线（截至今天约为每股 485 美元）；任何低于这个数字的都是抽到了短签。 **FSD 订阅数量与财务现实** * **第三季度 FSD 净订阅新增人数：** 260,000 名新用户订阅 FSD；北美地区的附加率为 75%（令人难以置信的进展/看涨）。 * **数学计算：** 260,000 人乘以每月 99 美元乘以 12 个月 = 每年 3.08 亿美元。 * 特斯拉表示，目前一半的 FSD 用户支付月度订阅费，这相当于每年大约 10 亿美元（很大程度上是利润）。 * 然而，10 亿美元并不是让特斯拉年利润超过 1000 亿美元的正确数量级。仅凭北美地区的 FSD 附加率，在特斯拉当前的估值下并不是一个有意义的财务驱动力。（如果特斯拉今天的估值是 5000 亿美元，情况就会不同）。 * 增长率意味着利润的增长。销售 100 万辆汽车却只是收支平衡，这意味着无人关心。股票所有权就是拥有剩余利润的一部分。 **能源业务毛利率与指导方针的矛盾** * **能源业务毛利率：** 特斯拉预计能源业务毛利率将从本季度已经很高的 33% *显著*增加。 * **矛盾：** 今年早些时候，由于低成本竞争加剧、政策不确定带来的市场影响以及关税成本，特斯拉预计毛利率会受到挤压。（在第一季度，能源业务毛利率为 39.5%，所以特斯拉当时是正确的）。 * **夏季指引：** 特斯拉此前表示，在竞争日益激烈的情况下，工业储能的平均售价（ASP）正在下降，长期的能源毛利率应该正常化在 20% 的中低端水平。 * 一个理性的市场参与者听到能源业务毛利率将显著上升时，会想这是否是由于地缘政治/电池供应变化而导致的昙花一现。30% 毛利率的增长是否具有可持续性，还是说 20% 的长期低端水平仍然是预期？华尔街不知道，特斯拉可能也不知道。即使拥有 50% 的毛利率并且明年的能源业务翻倍，其增量毛利也最高达到 6 到 7 到 8 亿美元——这不足以达到 1000 亿美元以上。 * *免责声明：* 在股价上涨之前，特斯拉并不需要 1000 亿美元的利润。抛开基本面不谈，如果大资金和技术面达成一致，特斯拉股价随时可能飙升，但可能无法持续。 **2030 年汽车产量与机器人出租车经济学（真正的核心驱动力）** * 特斯拉计划到 2030 年实现每年生产约 500 万辆汽车的目标（到 2030 年每年生产 2000 万辆汽车的目标已经搁置了一段时间）。 * 每年额外约 300 万辆汽车的组成至关重要：其中绝大多数将用于机器人出租车。 * **利润对比（5 年内 Model Y 与 Cybercab）：** * **售出并搭载 FSD 的 Model Y：** * 特斯拉每辆 Model Y 售出的毛利率：~18%（约合 8,500 美元利润）。 * FSD 收入（大部分为利润）：5 年内 6,000 美元。 * 搭载 FSD 的 Model Y 5 年内总利润：每辆约 14,500 美元利润。 * 按照这些数字规模化销售 100 万辆 Model Y，将在 5 年内产生约 150 亿美元的利润。 * **在机器人出租车网络上部署的 Cybercab（基本情况假设）：** * 收入：每辆 Cybercab 每年 50,000 美元（在全天候运行的密集城市中非常现实）。 * 运营成本：每年 10,000 美元。 * 销售成本：25,000 美元。 * 第一年利润：50,000 美元收入减去 10,000 美元运营支出减去 25,000 美元销售成本 = 15,000 美元利润。 * 第 2 年至第 5 年利润：每辆 Cybercab 每年 40,000 美元利润（扣除 10,000 美元运营支出后）。 * 在 50,000 美元年收入基本情况下，5 年内总计：每辆 Cybercab 产生 175,000 美元利润（每辆车的利润比销售带 FSD 的 Model Y 高出约 12 倍）。 * 在这种基本情况下，规模化部署 100 万辆 Cybercab 将在 5 年内产生 1750 亿美元的利润（利润高出一个多数量级）。 * 随着接单算法的改进、制造规模经济、无线充电的实施、全天候利用率的提高以及高速公路运营，Cybercab 的利润随着时间的推移将变得更加高效。 * 兴奋感和回报是真实的，并且正在到来，但根据最新的指引，这些被进一步推迟了。 **其他积极进展与结论** * 令人兴奋的事情：特斯拉正在构建自己的地图系统来处理导航和停车（作为 v15 的一部分，希望能在今年晚些时候推出）。 * **核心要点：** 区分特斯拉股票和特斯拉这家公司。公司取得了极佳的进展，但这并不总是意味着股价在短期内会有回报。 * 股票市场会提前 6 到 9 个月为未来的增长定价，但需要确信利润确实存在。由于机器人出租车和擎天柱在明年年底之前（擎天柱更晚）无法发挥作用，特斯拉股票的下跌趋势可能会再持续 6 个月以上。 * 在等待机器人出租车和擎天柱真正实现规模化生产的同时，短期内最不可能出现的结果就是真正有意义的盈利增长，而且技术面也不站在多头这一边。 * 演讲者拒绝在 7 年后继续重复 2018/2019 年的叙事，因为动态已经发生了变化。华尔街并不愚蠢；他们在等待公司通过创造利润来表现。 * 演讲者非常关心这家公司改变世界、追随技术以及深入研究细节（这将在未来对擎天柱和其他产品的评论中完成）。今天的电话会议强烈敦促特斯拉需要“要么拿出真本事，要么闭嘴”。 * 这段视频带来的后续反响不会好过；提醒观众去看看 Surfshark。

**Introduction and Purpose of the Video** * The speaker acknowledges that this video may be unpopular and could result in losing hundreds of subscribers, but feels strongly that it needs to be said. * Viewers are asked to like the video and try out the sponsor, Surfshark, in the weeks and months ahead. * For years, the speaker has made videos telling viewers to hold tight, wait a little longer, and look at the good things happening, noting that Tesla's narrative for the past few years has been kicking the can down the road regarding growth, financial performance, and stock performance. * A few years ago, the speaker intentionally removed short-term Tesla buying/selling activity, options discussions, different levels, and short-term expectations from videos so people would not trail the speaker and to ensure behind-the-scenes investment activity would not change the speaker's objectivity. * The speaker stands behind the 100 percent belief that buying and holding over 5, 10, 15, or 20 years will work out in the end. * However, the speaker now feels a disservice is being done by not discussing short-term strategies for seasons like this when Tesla stock feels like "dead money," including simple tools like timing buys to hit local lows rather than local highs. * The catalyst for this change is that Tesla's Q3 call was largely "more of the same," kicking the can down the road for one more year. * This is not meant to belittle Tesla's actual real progress on multiple fronts, but ultimately, it boils down to a company generating profits for shareholders, which Tesla hasn't delivered for people for years. * The video's objective is not to give a full recap or summary of the earnings call (which can be easily gotten via AI), but to share critical, fundamental, uncomfortable truths using data and facts rather than emotion. **Market Context and Net Income Comparison** * **The Most Valuable Companies in the World (Market Cap & TTM Net Income):** * **Nvidia:** Market cap of 5.1 trillion dollars. * **Apple:** Market cap of 5 trillion dollars. (Does between 129 billion and 244 billion dollars in trailing 12-month net income). * **Alphabet:** Market cap of 3.9 trillion dollars. * **Microsoft:** Market cap of 3.9 trillion dollars. * **Amazon (5th biggest):** Market cap of 2.7 trillion dollars. * **SpaceX (7th biggest):** Market cap of 1.9 trillion dollars (Negative 3.4 billion dollars TTM net income). * **Tesla:** Market cap of 1.5 trillion dollars (3.2 billion dollars TTM net income). * Top five companies average in the neighborhood of 40 billion dollars of net income every quarter. * **Tesla's Q3 Net Profit/Income Data:** * Q3 net profit for the quarter: 787 million dollars (down 43 percent year-over-year). * Removing things like stock-based compensation (SBC) or tariff impacts is fair, but those are still required to run the business (e.g., SBC is required to retain Elon and attract top talent). * **Tesla Net Income Quarterly Trend:** * Q1 2024: 1.4 billion dollars * Following quarter: 1.4 billion dollars * Next: 2.1 billion dollars * Next: 2.1 billion dollars * Next: 409 million dollars * Next: 1.1 billion dollars * Next: 1.4 billion dollars * Next: 840 million dollars * Next: 470 million dollars * Next: 1.1 billion dollars * This quarter (Q3): 787 million dollars * Tesla's best net income quarter since the beginning of 2024 was 2.1 billion dollars. Annualizing that generously yields just over 8 billion, rounded up to 9 billion dollars in a hypothetical best year ever. * The top five companies all do well over 100 billion dollars of net income every year. Tesla would have to do an order of magnitude more net income annually than its best hypothetical year ever to be in the same conversation regarding actual net income generation. * **"Kabuki Theater" of Earnings:** * Many people online ask why the stock isn't rocketing when Tesla "beats earnings." * Earnings are largely kabuki theater: arbitrary numbers put out by analysts every quarter (who don't understand the company anyway), and whether Tesla delivers slightly above or below is supposed to impact the stock. * Example: Some financial outlets expected Q3 auto gross margins x-credit around 17%, and Tesla delivered 18.1% (a 1.1 percentage point beat). A 1.1 percentage point beat does not move the needle toward where Tesla needs to get to be in the conversation with the world's most valuable companies on bottom-line financial performance. * The speaker gets frustrated seeing X accounts cherry-pick data points to say the stock should be soaring, when understanding how the stock market works shows these narratives make mountains out of molehills. **Sponsor Message Integration (Surfshark)** * Websites still recognize devices via digital fingerprints even without logins or accepted cookies. * A new paper from the ACM Internet conference showed these fingerprints are much better at tracking users than previously thought. * Normal VPNs give an exit IP address, but it stays the same for hours or days, helping websites recognize the digital fingerprint. * **Surfshark Features:** * IP Rotator: Changes the IP address every five minutes while keeping rotation inside the same country so you aren't constantly logged out. * Text Scam Protection (iOS and Android): Analyzes texts to recognize scams and suspicious patterns; on iOS, automatically moves them to the spam folder. * Cookie pop-up blocker and ad blocker to hide fingerprints and improve online experience. * Other benefits: Better deals on flights and hotels, one account for unlimited devices, email masking. * Call to action: Start a 7-day free trial and unlock 4 extra months of Surfshark VPN by heading to `surfshark.com/electrified` or using code `electrified`. **Analysis of Community Posts (Jeff Lutz and Cern Basher)** * **Jeff Lutz's Points Analyzed:** * *Cars sold out / highest backlog in four years / beating gross margins / expanding all car factories:* That's all great, but Tesla needs to increase production. After over two decades of making cars and supply chain experience, why was Tesla caught off guard by increased demand? While partially out of their control, a portion is likely due to poor forecasting. Tesla's factories aren't operating near capacity outside of Giga Shanghai. * *Limiter in the 10Q:* Battery supply and internal allocation decisions (Cybercab and Semi). However, Cybercab test vehicles and roughly 1,000 robotaxis (around 4,000 vehicles since summer) plus low-scale Tesla Semi do not represent high scale. Allocation decisions don't justify being far behind on the backlog. Are there challenges with 4680 production, or is it a tariff/lithium supply scramble? It all kicks the can down the road. * *Energy sold out nearly through 2027:* Tesla has installed capacity across battery factories of 116 gigawatt hours. Over the past 12 months, Tesla deployed roughly 50 gigawatt hours (about 50% of installed capacity). If 2027 hits near installed capacity (100 gigawatt hours up from 50), fans say people are sleeping on the doubling of energy deployments. However, the past 12 months of energy profitability from 50 gigawatt hours was 3.6 billion dollars. Doubling that in 2027 adds an incremental rounded-up 4 billion dollars of annual profit. While great for the world and the grid, that single line won't get Tesla north of 100 billion dollars in annual net income (and incremental gross profit doesn't all trickle down to net income). * *Robo taxi new cities next month / fleet sales end of year / easiest tesla to build ever:* New cities usually feature a handful of vehicles at best for the first few months. Fleet sales at the end of the year are not a guarantee and details are unknown to Wall Street. Easiest Tesla to build ever doesn't matter if it can't be deployed at scale (Tesla stated they are only making them as fast as the robotaxi network needs or can deploy them). * *Stock Price Action:* Tesla stock price all year has shown lower highs paired with lower lows, and mostly sideways movement over the past five years. * *Optimus started production / cash positive 5 billion dollars / beat first expected:* Elon said they don't plan to sell Optimus commercially until maybe the end of 2027 (at least a year plus). Given Elon's predictive power for robotaxi and FSD, it could take two years. It won't generate revenue or profit until likely into 2028. * *Free cash flow:* Surprised significantly on the positive side, but it always boils down to Tesla pulling back its capex spend meaningfully from expectations. That raises questions about market opportunity or forecasting errors. Free cash flow has more to do with cash flows than generating profit. * **Cern Basher's Points Analyzed:** * Points about robotaxi developments: The team said the robotaxi business might become noticeable around Q2 next year, and meaningful in Q3 or Q4. Translation: another year before robotaxi moves the needle financially. * **Comparison to Elon's Q1 2025 Statement:** Elon stated in Q1 2025 that autonomy prosperity would take effect materially around the middle of next year (summer 2026), and affect the bottom line in the second half of next year (right now). Elon has "kicked the can down the road one more year." Elon doesn't know when this will really happen, though the silver lining is each 1-year miss brings him closer to being right. Rational market participants will discount Elon's timelines. * **Robotaxi Safety Data:** * New data shows a live counter of over 3.4 million miles driven autonomously (great weekly growth rates accelerating from the last call). * However, it comes from a very small base. * **Waymo Comparison:** Waymo's most recent report shows cumulative autonomous miles over 271 million (through June of this year), and likely well over 300 million miles based on weekly rates. Waymo is currently two orders of magnitude beyond Tesla apples-to-apples. These metrics will not move the needle for Tesla stock in the near term unless exponential growth rates continue. **Implications for a SpaceX Merger and Valuation** * This has huge implications for the premium Tesla shareholders should expect from SpaceX in the event of a merger. * The speaker would never tell anyone how to vote, but lays out the thinking: * Immense man-hours, meetings, design work, supply chain negotiations, global travel, manufacturing process setup for Optimus and Robotaxi parts, FSD development leading to unsupervised miles, chip development, Cybercab manufacturing learnings, regulatory and service team conversations. * The market currently gives some premium in Tesla shares (stretched valuation pricing in future Robotaxi and Optimus business). * However, for all the groundwork laid, shareholders have not been compensated for what is about to happen with Robotaxi and Optimus. * Valuation depends on when an offer is made (e.g., 3 months vs. early 2028). * Community members saying "make an offer for 420 for Tesla and we'll all vote yes": based on today's share price, that's roughly a 13% premium, which is a resounding "no" for the speaker. * Ashok stated that nobody in their right mind should try to solve generalized self-driving like Tesla is doing because the long tail is incredibly long. * For the money, time, and brain power spent on programs that haven't paid off at the bottom line yet, shareholders deserve to be compensated. A 30% premium feels like the bare minimum (roughly 485 dollars per share as of today); anything lower is drawing the short straw. **FSD Subscription Numbers and Financial Reality** * **FSD Q3 Net Subscription Ads:** 260,000 new people subscribing to FSD; attach rates are 75% in North America (incredible progress/bullish). * **Math:** 260,000 people times 99 dollars a month times 12 months = 308 million dollars per year. * Tesla stated half of FSD users now pay a monthly subscription, which equates to roughly 1 billion dollars every year (largely profit). * However, 1 billion dollars is not the right order of magnitude to get Tesla over 100 billion dollars per year. FSD attach rates in North America alone are not a meaningful financial driver at Tesla's current valuation. (If Tesla were valued at 500 billion dollars today, it would be a different story). * Growth rates imply growth of profits. Selling 100 million cars while breaking even means nobody cares. Stock ownership is owning a portion of residual profits. **Energy Business Margins and Guidance Contradictions** * **Energy Margins:** Tesla expects energy margins to increase *meaningfully* from an already high 33% for the quarter. * **Contradiction:** Earlier this year, Tesla expected margin compression due to increased low-cost competition, market impacts from policy uncertainty, and tariff costs. (In Q1, energy margins were 39.5%, so Tesla was correct then). * **Summer Guidance:** Tesla previously stated average selling prices (ASPs) for industrial storage are coming down amidst good growing competition, and long-term energy gross margins should normalize at a mid-to-low 20 percent range. * A rational market participant hears energy margins are going up meaningfully, but wonders if it's short-lived due to geopolitical/cell supply changes. Is the increase from 30% gross margins sustainable, or is the long-term low 20% range still the expectation? Wall Street doesn't know, and Tesla might not know either. Even with 50% margins and doubled energy business next year, it maxes out at 6 to 7 to 8 billion dollars of incremental gross profit—not enough to reach 100 billion plus. * *Disclaimer:* Tesla doesn't need 100 billion in profit before the stock moves. Fundamentals aside, Tesla stock could rip at any point if big money and technicals align, but it might not be sustainable. **2030 Vehicle Production and Robotaxi Economics (The Real Needle Mover)** * Tesla plans to hit around 5 million vehicles produced every year by 2030 (the 20 million vehicles a year by 2030 target has been off the table for some time). * The composition of the additional ~3 million vehicles/year is crucial: a majority will be for Robotaxi. * **Profit Comparison (Model Y vs. Cybercab over 5 years):** * **Model Y Sold with FSD:** * Tesla's gross margin per Model Y sale: ~18% (approx. 8,500 dollars in profit). * FSD revenue (mostly profit): 6,000 dollars over 5 years. * Total per Model Y with FSD over 5 years: ~14,500 dollars in profit. * Scaling 1 million Model Ys sold with these numbers generates about 15 billion dollars in profit over 5 years. * **Cybercab Deployed on Robotaxi Network (Base Case Assumptions):** * Revenue: 50,000 dollars per year per Cybercab (very realistic in dense cities operating 24/7). * Operating costs: 10,000 dollars per year. * Cost of goods sold: 25,000 dollars. * Year 1 profit: 50,000 dollars revenue minus 10,000 dollars OpEx minus 25,000 dollars CoGS = 15,000 dollars profit. * Years 2 to 5 profit: 40,000 dollars profit per Cybercab per year (after removing 10,000 dollar operating expense). * Total over 5 years with 50,000 dollar annual revenue base case: 175,000 dollars in profit per Cybercab (around 12 times more profit per vehicle than selling a Model Y with FSD). * Scaling 1 million Cybercab deployments with this base case generates 175 billion dollars in profit over 5 years (over an order of magnitude more profit). * Cybercab profits will become more efficient over time due to pickup algorithm improvements, manufacturing economies of scale, wireless charging implementation, 24/7 utilization rate increases, and highway operations. * The excitement and payoff are real and coming, but kicked further down the road based on latest guidance. **Other Positive Developments & Conclusion** * Things to get excited about: Tesla building its own mapping system to handle navigation and parking (part of v15, hoped to be available later this year). * **Core Takeaway:** Differentiate between Tesla stock and Tesla the company. The company makes excellent progress, but that doesn't always mean the stock pays off in the short term. * The stock market prices in future growth 6 to 9 months ahead, but needs to be convinced profits will be there. With Robotaxi and Optimus not moving the needle until late next year (and Optimus later), Tesla stock may continue its downtrend for another 6 months plus. * Real meaningful profitability growth isn't the most likely short-term outcome while waiting for real scale on Robotaxi and Optimus, and technicals are not on the bulls' side. * The speaker refuses to keep repeating 2018/2019 narratives 7 years later when dynamics have changed. Wall Street isn't being stupid; they are waiting for the company to perform by generating profits. * The speaker cares deeply about the company changing the world, following the technology, and nerding out over details (which will be done in future commentary on Optimus and other goods). Today's call was a strong urge to state that Tesla needs to "put up or shut up." * Fallback from this video won't be pretty; viewers are reminded to check out Surfshark.