Default swaps on Big Tech quadrupled, and five canaries in the coal mine | Market Hang

Weekly trading in credit default swaps on Big Tech debt went from under $2 billion in July to more than $9 billion in September, because protection is now cheaper than buying puts. Jen Saarbach opens on that, then the producer puts the same question to everyone: what is your canary in the coal mine? Amy Wu Silverman of RBC says the market has simply been lucky on correlation. Kevin Mahn of Hennion & Walsh watches the Strait of Hormuz and memory chips. Drew Pettit of Roundhill says the warning sign is the day investors decide stocks look cheap. Plus utilities as a backdoor AI trade, and Netflix before the print. Featuring Jen Saarbach, Co-host, Market Hang, and Co-founder, The Wall Street Skinny Kristen Kelly, Co-host, Market Hang, and Co-founder, The Wall Street Skinny Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy, RBC Capital Markets Kevin Mahn, Chief Investment Officer, Hennion & Walsh Drew Pettit, Chief Investment Strategist, Roundhill Investments Timestamps 0:00 Welcome back to Market Hang 0:31 Risk assets get their mojo back 1:25 A Korean IPO prices near the top, then falls 1:51 Default swap trading on Big Tech quadrupled 2:13 Why protection got cheaper than puts 2:38 So what is your canary in the coal mine? 2:56 Waiting to see what Anthropic actually earns 4:33 A highly dispersed market, and why that is luck 5:19 Selling volatility until the music stops 5:39 Two canaries: The Strait of Hormuz, and memory 6:30 Why Micron decides what happens to Nvidia 6:58 The canary is the day trading goes macro again 8:04 Hedge funds do not trade baskets of 100 stocks anymore 9:21 When everyone says the market is cheap, worry 10:05 Finding a differentiated type of risk 10:47 What breaks the rotation that has been saving us? 11:16 The ten year at five and a half, and what six would do 12:04 A dollar spike in either direction 12:32 Is CoreWeave now in the Fed's calculus? 13:09 If the inflation is oil, what does a quarter point fix? 13:55 The dot plot everyone assumed had gone away 14:48 The bond equity hedge that stopped working 16:09 Rates vol is nervous and equity vol is not 17:01 No relationship lasts forever 17:27 Zero wiggle room on estimates 18:17 Is this IPO fatigue, or are these bad companies? 19:30 Private money coming off the sidelines 20:17 Why would Anthropic and OpenAI wait? 21:13 An unspoken seasonal rule from a real estate career 22:05 What all these IPOs are actually raising cash for 22:38 Bond people are bearish until someone nearly defaults 22:53 The market will have a tantrum if the big IPOs slip 24:21 Nobody is sitting on cash waiting for these two 25:04 Diversifying into utilities is still the AI trade 25:47 A surge protector plugged into itself 26:45 Anti data center sentiment heading into the midterms 27:10 Nobody makes money trading politics 28:18 When a town says no and its muni bonds blow out 28:38 These are not your father's utilities 30:06 The other side of the utilities trade 30:44 Hard assets, low obsolescence 31:20 Why rate sensitivity makes utilities a poor hedge 31:55 If the bottleneck is power, the answer is nuclear 33:23 We tried to leave the AI trade and walked back into it 34:21 Playing The 8:30's take on media, and disagreeing with it 35:39 Netflix before the print, and a thousand layoffs 36:38 Are they good at content, or good at charging you? 37:15 A sold out theater on a Monday night 38:41 People rewatch the good stuff 39:42 The number one movie on Netflix was about a squid 40:17 Thesis creep, and what it does to a growth stock 41:17 Is streaming the new gym membership? 42:20 Pricing an earnings move with no subscriber numbers 43:33 Does anyone watch anything for themselves? 44:19 Should a chief executive be calling for a wealth tax? 45:00 Your personal opinion drags your shareholders along 46:09 When CEO speak is really lobbying 47:25 The cult of personality moved from tech to finance 48:42 Chief executives counting their LinkedIn followers 49:38 A fare that went from $400 to $700 50:36 The K-shape, and why the Delta chief is probably right 51:41 If you own things, you feel less inflation 52:23 Fix the Wi-Fi before you fix the tax code 53:09 The number nobody watches: Gross margins #CreditDefaultSwaps #AIBubble #Netflix #MarketHang #YahooFinance == AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance: A Professional-Grade Investment Platform Built for Everyday Investors. 👉 https://finance.yahoo.com/about/promos/gold/alphaspace?ncid=100003571

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