你是目标，还是代价？李录谈中国经济、股市与政策风险 ｜新闻特写20261019
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在一场播客讨论中，主持人与一位嘉宾探讨了投资中国市场、应对经济转型以及更广泛的全球经济动态。
在过去的十年里，中国的经济经历了一段停滞期。在达到中等收入水平后，该国面临着“中等收入陷阱”的普遍风险，即国家出现停滞，未能突破中低端制造业的天花板。为了避免这种情况，中国发起了一场刻意的经济迁移，从低端制造业转向中高端制造业，其支柱是一项名为“中国制造2025”的十年规划。这一战略随后得到了美国在特朗普和拜登政府期间实施的贸易关税和技术限制的强化。到2021年，中国政府在这些目标上加倍投入，大力推动半导体、飞机发动机和操作系统等关键瓶颈领域的技术自主。
实现这些激进的目标付出了沉重的代价。主要的负担落在了中国中产阶级家庭的资产负债表上。从历史上看，房地产一直是家庭财富的支柱，典型家庭将其净资产的70%持有一套有大约50%抵押贷款杠杆支持的住房。随着房地产市场在过去五年中经历深刻的低迷，全国房价平均下跌了40%，抹去了家庭财富的大部分。因此，家庭转向减少消费、增加储蓄——导致存款水平创下纪录——并偿还债务，导致国内需求增长放缓至接近零的水平。
相反，制造业和技术部门则呈现出截然不同的情况。中国成功转型为中高端制造业，实现了“中国制造2025”的所有主要目标。美国主导的技术制裁无意中成为中国半导体行业的福音，因为它们保证了本地需求和订单。成熟制程设备和制造已经实现了近乎完全的自给自足，而先进节点正在迅速缩小差距。此外，生成式人工智能起到了伟大的平衡器作用，帮助取代了个人电脑、服务器和半导体中缺失的操作系统代码层。中国也已成为新能源、电动汽车、储能和电池领域的全球主导者。
这种发展模式——追求国家重大目标并伴随局部的经济代价——反映了中国过去快速现代化的阶段，例如最初的工业污染随后是环境治理，以及由房地产发展驱动的城镇化。对投资者而言，理解某个行业代表的是国家“目标”还是局部“代价”至关重要。尽管存在双轨经济和停滞的金融市场，理性的投资者仍然可以在被低估的、具有全球竞争力的中国公司中找到引人注目的机会。
在全球范围内，二战后的政治秩序正在经历转型，但潜在的经济秩序——在过去30年中形成的单一全球共同市场——依然具有韧性。由于深厚的相互依赖关系，例如严重依赖使用筷子地区的芯片生产的全球半导体供应链，中美两国保持了对战略稳定和定期沟通的强大动力。最终，应用价值投资框架使全球投资者能够将财富视为全球购买力的百分比所有权，通过以有利的价格投资于动态市场中的伟大企业来获取长期价值。
In a podcast discussion, the host talks with a guest about investing in the Chinese market, navigating its economic transition, and broader global economic dynamics.
Over the last ten years, China's economy has experienced a period of stagnation. Having reached a middle-income level, the country faced the common risk of the "middle-income trap," where nations stall and fail to break past mid-to-low-end manufacturing ceilings. To avoid this, China initiated a deliberate economic migration from low-end to mid-to-high-end manufacturing, anchored by a ten-year plan called "Made in China 2025." This strategy was subsequently reinforced by U.S.-led trade tariffs and technology restrictions implemented during the Trump and Biden administrations. By 2021, the Chinese government doubled down on these goals, pushing aggressively for technology self-sufficiency in critical bottlenecks like semiconductors, aircraft engines, and operating software.
Achieving these aggressive objectives came with a heavy cost. The primary burden fell on the balance sheets of middle-class Chinese families. Historically, real estate served as the anchor of family wealth, with a typical household holding 70% of its net worth in a home backed by roughly 50% of leverage mortgage. As the real estate market underwent a profound downturn over the last five years, nationwide home values dropped by an average of 40%, wiping out significant portions of family fortunes. Consequently, families shifted toward consuming less, saving more—leading to record deposit levels—and paying down debt, resulting in domestic demand growth slowing down to near zero.
Conversely, the manufacturing and technological sectors tell a different story. China successfully transitioned into mid-to-high-end manufacturing, meeting all the primary objectives of "Made in China 2025." U.S.-led technology sanctions inadvertently served as a boon for the Chinese semiconductor industry by guaranteeing local demand and order books. Mature-node equipment and fabrication have achieved nearly complete self-sufficiency, while advanced nodes are rapidly closing the gap. Furthermore, generative ai has acted as a great equalizer, helping replace missing layers of operating code systems across PCs, servers, and semiconductors. China has also become a dominant global leader in new energies, electric vehicles, storage, and batteries.
This development model—pursuing major national objectives accompanied by localized economic costs—mirrors past phases of China's rapid modernization, such as initial industrial pollution followed by environmental remediation, and urbanization driven by real estate development. For investors, understanding whether a sector represents the national "objective" or the localized "cost" is critical. Despite the two-tiered economy and stagnant financial markets, rational investors can find compelling opportunities in undervalued, globally competitive Chinese companies.
On a global scale, the post-WWII political order is undergoing a transformation, but the underlying economic order—a single global common market formed over the last 30 years—remains resilient. Because of deep mutual dependencies, such as the global semiconductor supply chain tied heavily to chip production in regions utilizing chopsticks, the U.S. and China maintain a high incentive for strategic stability and regular communication. Ultimately, applying a value investing framework allows global investors to view wealth as a percentage ownership of global purchasing power, capturing long-term value by investing in great businesses across dynamic markets at advantageous prices.
中英文字稿 
你刚才简要提到了中国，我们来聊聊这个话题。我刚从中国回来，在香港教了一些学员。利用这个机会，我研究了几家中国公司，稍微考察了一下中国市场。可以这样说，过去几年确实是风起云涌。我想问问你，你怎么看待目前的中国市场？考虑到中国经济正面临房地产泡沫和银行危机的问题，这种情况让人联想到我们在其他地方看到的一些现象。我想了解一下你对当前在中国投资的看法。
同时，你提到过去10年里的中国市场，其实它基本上是处于停滞状态。在这10年中发生的事情让人感到有趣。10年前，中国政府面临一个决定，他们已经达到某种中等收入水平，问题是如何突破这种状态。许多国家一旦达到这一水平，就会停滞不前。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
so you mentioned China briefly there yes so let's talk a little bit about that I just came back from China I was teaching the participants there in Hong Kong and you know I took advantage of that occasion to do a couple of cases on Chinese companies to study a little bit the Chinese market I mean you know it's been quite a ride let's put it this way over the last few years and I wanted to ask you about this you know how do you think about the Chinese market these days with the problems in the Chinese economy associated with a real estate bust and the banking crisis it looks very reminiscent of some of the things we've seen in other places but I wanted to get from you a little bit how you see investing in China these days yeah okay so you mentioned also the Chinese market and you look at the last 10 years they also have a stagnant for basically a 10 years period of time basically and what happens in that 10 years is a fascinating you know 10 years ago that the Chinese government as a decision to make you know now they have achieved somewhat of a middle income level the question is that how do we break away from it and so many countries every reach that level and then stagnant there.
这句话的大意是，许多国家陷入了一种称为“中等收入陷阱”的经济状态，几十年来一直停滞不前。中国作为一个大型经济体，面临着如何避免这样的陷阱的问题。许多国家在达到一定的中等收入水平后，经济增长停滞，未能突破障碍。它们依靠中低端制造业，但一直无法突破这个层次。因此，中国需要做出决策，是否要真正突破这一限制，并采取措施加速这一过程，以确保不重蹈覆辙。许多国家失败后，经济在一个水平滞留了40到50年，甚至更久。为了避免这种情况，中国正在努力将其经济从低端和中端制造业拓展到中高端制造业。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So much as so that there is a term to describe that as middle income trap many many dozens of a countries achieve that one and stay there 40 50 years later the Chinese office is a large economy so the question naturally is that what really keep a middle income country really stagnant in there and never really break away the ceilings you know you your manufacturing your industrialized you go with mid to low-end manufacturing but never really break away from it and so they have a decision to make so do we want to really break it out and can we do something to accelerate that process or make sure that actually happens because on is a natural course a lot of a country have failed to achieve that and stagnant and they stay there for 40 50 years in some countries even longer and so they embarked on this process of migrating deliberately of the economy from low to mid-end manufacturing into mid to high-end manufacturing.
他们现在不再是一个五年计划，而是推出了一个名为“中国制造2025”的十年计划。该计划列出了约十个主要目标，旨在将中国的基础制造业从低端到中端提升到中高端。就在几年前计划启动后不久，特朗普政府上台并开始了贸易战，这进一步加固了他们的理念，不仅仅依靠自己的自然进展可能无法达到或突破那个界限，其他国家也可能故意限制他们。接下来拜登政府上台后，不仅维持了贸易关税，还增加了更多的技术限制。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And they have instead of a five-year plan now they got a 10-year plan called made in china 2025 in which the listed 10 ish major objective that really aimed to transform chinese basic manufacturing from low to mid-end to mid to high-end and as soon as that was embarked a few years later trump first of trump administration came on board and the start of the trade war which reinforced their idea and not only on its own natural course it may not achieve that ceiling or break through that ceiling all the country other countries might deliberately to constrain them underneath of that ceiling and then of course the trump one followed by biden administration that also not only keep the treat uh tariff but also added more of the technology restrictions.
到2021年，也就是在十年计划实施五年后，中国政府加大了这一方向的力度，不仅决定将制造业提升到中高端，还特别强调在关键领域实现技术自给自足。这些关键领域包括半导体、大型航空发动机和操作软件代码等，中国在这些领域面临真正的瓶颈。因此，他们在这个过程中又开始了一个加速的五年期。
当试图实现这些几乎不可能的目标时，许多国家曾尝试过但未能成功，这自然会带来巨大的代价。事实上，这一直是中国发展的模式：在不同的发展阶段，总是设定宏大的目标和任务，随之而来的也有相应的巨大成本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So by five years into the 10-year plan by 2021 the chinese government doubled down on that direction essentially also decided in addition to migrating the manufacturing into the mid to high end also added technology self-sufficiency particularly in the areas where they have a real bottleneck whether it is the semiconductors or the big aircraft engines or a operating software code etc etc they have a long list that china wasn't facing so and thus really start another five years of a doubling down acceleration in that process now when you really try to achieve those impossible goals that there's so many countries have failed to do that it doesn't really come without a deep and heavy cost and in fact that has been the model that china's development is the economy at a different period of time they always have the big objective and target and then they have big associate costs associated with it.
在过去五年中，房地产基本上是实现目标的主要成本之一，这实际上影响了中产阶级中国家庭的资产负债表。在2021年，房地产价格达到了顶峰，典型的中产阶级中国家庭有70%的净资产投入在自有住房中，但这些住房大约有50%是通过抵押贷款购买的。在接下来的五年里，直到现在，房地产价格在全国范围内平均下跌了约40%，因此他们的家庭财富平均缩水了60%到70%。面对这种情况，他们能做的三件事情是：减少消费，加大储蓄，并尽可能偿还债务。这正是过去五年中产阶级中国家庭所做的事情。因此，国内需求增长变得越来越慢，如今几乎为零，而储蓄率则不断上升，达到了相当于GDP的120%，这可能是全球最高的储蓄额，约有165万亿元人民币。同时，人们也经历了两到三年左右的价格停滞。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you mentioned real estate in the last five years is is basically one of the principal cost of achieving that goal is really the middle class chinese family balance sheet their family wealth by 2021 that real estate price reached to the peak a typical middle class chinese family have 70 percent of their net worth tied into the home that they own but that home carries with roughly about 50 percent of a leverage mortgage and then in the next five years until now the real estate price on average nationwide lost about 40 percent of the value and so they saw their entire family fortune going down 60 70 percent on average and when that happens what do you do you do three things you consume less you'll save more and to the extent possible you pay down the debt and that's exactly what typical middle-class chinese family have done over the last five years and so the domestic demand has been growing slower slower slower to today roughly zero and the saving rate has gone up and up to days to call it 120 percent of gdp which is probably the largest saving deposit anywhere in the world basically 165 trillion rmb and people also have been through two three years of roughly somewhat of either zero uh price.
在这个范围内增加或略微下降，因此当人们展望未来时，可能会有一些信心问题，这是经济的一种层面。但如果你看经济的另一个层面，看看中国政府在过去十年或五年的目标，你会看到一个截然不同的画面。现在，中国制造业终于从低端、中低端突破，稳步进入中高端领域。"中国制造2025"的每一个目标都已超前完成。在过去的五年里，瓶颈问题的解决也取得了巨大进展。以半导体为例，美国主导的技术制裁反而成为中国半导体行业的天赐良机，因为在市场经济中，最宝贵的莫过于需求。问任何一个企业家，他们会说订单量是最重要的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Increase or slightly negative in that more or less in that range and therefore have a little bit of confidence issue when they look at uh in the future so that's one tier of the economy but you look at in the other tier of the economy on the objective of the chinese government over the last 10 years five years you'll see remarkably a different picture and now the chinese manufacturing have finally break through the lower to mid end into firmly into the mid to high end every single one of the objective of the made in china 2025 has been ahead and the last five years the the solving of the of the bottleneck issue have also made a tremendous progress you know taking the example of the semiconductor it turns out that the sanctions of u.s led technology sanctions has been a godsend for the chinese semiconductor industry because it has one of the most precious thing in market economy which is demand which is you ask any entrepreneur what's the most important thing they say is the order book.
如果你有了收入，你就能推动整个运转。有了收入就会有利润，有了利润就能进行研发，会带来更好的改进，从而带来更多收入。这一切确实发生了。在成熟的技术领域，中国在设备和制造方面都几乎实现了完全的自给自足。在更尖端和先进的领域，虽然仍缺少几个关键部分，但也接近实现自给自足。如果持续保持这种发展，走下去是一种自然的过程。这只是一个方面。当然，生成型人工智能的关键能力之一是按需大规模生成智能。其最大的应用之一是代码生成，它解决了某些最主要的瓶颈问题，尤其是操作系统代码层的缺失问题。因此，从个人电脑到服务器再到印度的半导体代码系统，这些都在逐步被人工智能所取代。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If you have the revenue you would really have this whole bowl rolling with more revenue comes profit it comes r d and comes a better improvement comes more revenue and so that actually happened to the point on the mature note to the chinese uh both the equipment side as well as the fabrication side have really achieved almost complete self-sufficiency and on the more cutting edge and advanced note and you're really getting close to be self-sufficient with a few key missing ingredients but if you keep the out of this way that down is a natural course will happen and that's just one aspect of it and of course the one of the key capabilities of generative ai is really producing intelligence at a scale on demand and one of the biggest application is code generating and that solve the biggest problem of some of those uh uh uh basically uh bottleneck primarily the missing of layer of the operating code system so from the pcs to the surfers to the semiconductor code system of india one by one all of those are now being replaced with help of ai.
这成为了一个伟大的平衡器。过去十年中，你可以看到在很多领域中取得了显著进展，比如制造业的基础从低端向中端，再从中端向高端转移。在一些领域，如新能源、电动汽车、储能电池等，我们已经看到了持续不断的进步。在这些行业中，他们拥有强大的设备，正逐渐成为全球的领导者。而在那些存在瓶颈的行业，也开始转型并缩小差距。
然而，与此同时，这对其他一些行业带来了巨大代价，比如房地产。举个例子，现在我们每年的新房销售可能下降了大约70%。而这大概10万亿元的差额，正好等于用于制造业升级和技术提高的开支，每年约为10万亿元人民币。如果你查看转变的时间点，差不多是在2021年左右。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So this becomes a great equalizer so on field after field that you have seen that over the last 10 years you got this remarkable progress in terms of migrating the basic counters of manufacturing manufacturing from low to mid end to mid to high end in some areas new energies evs storage the batteries you name it and it goes on and on having machinery they they just dominant they becoming global leaders and in the ones that they have bottleneck it is also began to migrate and closing the gap and at the same time it comes with a very high heavy cost to other industries uh real estate you know for example you know we now probably on the annual new sales basis we're down about 70 percent and that actual 10 trillion also is exactly how much has been spent on manufacturing upgrading and technology efficiency so to the tone of about a 10 trillion rnb a year and if you look at the conversion is exactly around 2021.
过去50年来，中国的发展模式大致是这样的：在我看来，大约每隔10年左右，中国就会设定一组新的目标。这些目标通常伴随着巨大的成本。有时候，在未来的10年里，这些目标可能真的变成本身的代价。在工业起飞的早期阶段，环境、空气污染和河流等成为代价；随后，这些问题成为了新的目标，于是开发了环保技术，污染者成了代价。在城市化成本中，房地产开发商成为目标，推动了中国的建设，使其发展到现在的状态，以及实现了房屋所有权和中产阶级财富。然而，在过去的五到十年间，这些又变成了代价，你会因此承受不小的痛苦。然而，纵观这段时间，你会看到国家的进步，这就是为什么中国能够在短短几百年内实现压缩性发展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so but that has been the development model if you look back over the last 50 years when china how does it develop at any given time roughly in my mind maybe every 10 years or so you got a new set of objectives target and it comes with a heavy cost and sometime in the next 10 years the objective could really become cost in the early days of a industrial takeoff the environment air pollution rivers all of them become cause and then proceeding next to they become the objective and so the new environmentally friendly technologies were developed so the polluters were the cost and then in the cost of urbanization that real estate developers were the objective and building out of china into what it is and the home ownership and the firm middle class wealth and then in the last five ten years they become cost and then so you began to suffer quite a bit but overall you see the progress of the country through those period of time that's why you can really compress a development over you know a few hundred years into.
说40年，但无论何时，作为投资者或企业家，我相信所有来自中国的人都会很强烈地认识到，你总是想知道自己是目标还是代价。成为一个国家目标的代价并不好玩，我相信你们所有人都非常清楚这一点，或者有朋友深入参与这个过程。但这就是发展的过程。所以，总的来说，如果你要给一个评分的话，你会说，通过所有这些变化，现在的中国已经发展成为一个具有如此规模和人口的国家，真正开始了一条全面现代化的道路。然而，因为这样，你会有一个两级经济以及普遍的信心流失，你也看到金融市场在过去10年基本上停滞不前。与此同时，一些极具竞争力的伟大公司却以非常低的价格交易，并且你会看到这里的经济分化现象。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Say 40 years but at any given time as investor as an entrepreneur I'm sure all of those people from china would really strongly identify you always want to know whether you are the objective or you're the cost yeah being the cost of a state objective is no fun I'm sure all of you really intimately know that or have a friends that really be intimately involved in the process but that's how it is really developed and so overall if you give the score you would say well of all of those changes you basically have now had a country now emerged with such a size and population to really finally embarked on a complete course of modernization and but because of that you know this two-tiered economy and the general loss of a confidence and you also have the financial market for 10 years really exactly stagnant yeah we're nowhere and meanwhile you have some of the greatest companies that are wortly competitive trading at a very low prices and again you have the bifurcation as you see here.
所以，如果你是一个非理性的投资者，并且从整体来看待事物的话，你可能会有不同的看法。因此，我会说，在今天的市场中，你可能会找到比其他时候更好的机会。所以，这就是你真正想要的。我马上会开始回答问题，请大家准备好问题并举手，我想快速地问你最后一个问题。你在1997年创立了喜马拉雅资本，我大约在同一时间作为一名年轻的助理教授来到芝加哥大学。对我来说，那时的世界与现在看起来非常不同。那个时候的世界是开放的、跨国的，我们可以旅行，可以做很多事情。当时的世界充满了一种现在似乎有些缺失的宽容精神。如今，这个世界在我看来，非常不一样了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So but if you're irrational investors and look at the whole as a picture you might take a different perspective so I would say that in today's market you probably find better opportunities than you would otherwise find in the different times so that's really yeah what you want to so I'm going to take questions in a moment and while you get your questions ready so raise your hand I want to ask you one last question okay very quickly which is you founded himalaya capital in 1997 I arrived at the university of chicago about the same time as a young assistant professor and the world at least to me I don't know how it looked to you at that time we didn't know each other then was a very different world or it looked to us very different than it looks to me now it was a world that was open transnational uh where we you know could travel you could do so many things it was it had some I don't know how to say the generosity of spirit to it that seems to be a little bit lacking today it looks very different to me now.
好的，我想问一下你对未来的看法，以及你是否将这些想法应用到你的投资思维中。是个好问题，坦诺。在过去的30年里，世界确实发生了巨大的变化，这一点毫无疑问。关于世界如何治理自身、如何运作的重大问题也在慢慢发生变化。这种变化有时需要几十年，甚至上百年，才能形成并彻底转变。目前的世界秩序是通过两次世界大战建立的，两次大战几乎让世界崩溃，然后才从中崛起，形成了以美国为主导的秩序。随着冷战的结束，这个秩序一度是单一的，但现在它再次发生变化，形成一种新的尚未显现的秩序。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I want to ask you a little bit how you see it going forward and whether you you know incorporate any of those ideas in the way you think about investing yeah uh it's a great question tano um it the world really over the last 30 years have changed there's no question about that one and the word order or the big questions of how the world really govern itself operate by itself really do change in a slow scale um it you know it takes a decade sometimes a hundred years for the order to really formed and really transform and the current order order really is a founded through two great world wars which bring the the whole world into brink of a collapse and then coming out of this emerging uh as the american-led order and then through the cold war and the end of the cold war become one order and now it's transforming once again into something and yet to be seen to emerge what emerged out of it.
在这段时间的表面之下，已经有一个新的秩序在过去几百年中稳步形成，那就是经济秩序。经济秩序真正在形成时，是因为越来越多的国家和人口开始参与共同的贸易，并彼此进行商业交易；他们形成了一个共同的市场。大约30年前，随着苏联的解体和冷战的结束，这个共同市场终于形成。几乎所有国家和地区的人民都开始加入到一个市场经济中。这个经济秩序有趣的一点在于，一旦共同市场形成，任何单一国家都很难自愿退出。因为从市场中能获得效率的提升，技术进步、分工、资源贸易等方面不断得到改进。任何国家如果长时间退出市场，都将面临巨大的代价。因此，一旦经济秩序形成，它很难瓦解，且能够延续很长时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And but underneath there is another order that is has been steadily forming for the last few hundred years which is the economic order. The economic order really forms when more and more countries and populations join in a common treat and transact business with each other; they form a common market. That common market was finally formed roughly about 30 years ago with the collapse of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War. Virtually all countries and all populations began to join in one market economy. What is interesting about this economic order is that once a common market is formed, it is very difficult for any single country to withdraw voluntarily because what out of the market comes efficiency, comes the flywheel of continuous increase improvement along the lines of technology, efficiency, division of labor, trading of resources, etc. So any country who withdraw for any extended period of time would come with a great deal of a cost and so in the end once it is formed it is a very difficult disintegrate it lasts much much longer.
在过去的100年里，看看各种贸易战和贸易摩擦。无论设置了怎样的摩擦和壁垒，人们总会找到方法通过第三国进行贸易，依然遵循比较优势这一原则。比如说，美中贸易当然有所下降。但如果你看看美国与墨西哥等其他国家的贸易，它们的总量实际上是弥补了美中贸易的下降。基本上，美中贸易的总量依然保持不变，只是通过第三国家等途径进行。这在大多数其他市场中情况也是大致相同的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You look at the trade wars and the trade frictions over the preceding 100 years. No matter what really frictions and the barriers you erected, people will find a way to treat through basically a third country along the same principles of a really comparative advantage. In a sense, you know, you take an example of the U.S. and China trade, of course that has declined. But you look at the overall U.S. who traded with say Mexico plus other countries; they say the exact offset. Basically, the U.S. and China trade is still remain the same; it's just to go through a third party country, etc. That is roughly true in most of the other market as well.
所以，政治格局是这样的：美国在过去80年中引领全球，并承担了确保经济共同市场运转的大部分成本。然而，美国开始意识到这种成本和从中获得的利益可能有些不成比例。因此，美国开始自愿减少一些这些责任，但到目前为止这并不太成功，从而留下了一个真空。在政治格局中最大的变化是中国在过去30或40年中的崛起。中国已经成为一个庞大的经济体，在制造业和技术上都实现了自给自足，并拥有一个同样开放且统一监管的最大市场。这对我们目前目睹的政治秩序和经济秩序来说是一个巨大的变化，这也正是我们所看到的改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the political order is that U.S. really having led the globe for 80 years and shouldered most of the cost in ensuring that economic common market will function as it a fit began to realize that cost and the benefit derived from it probably is a bit of auto proportion. It began to voluntarily withdraw some of those responsibilities, not very successfully so far, and so left the veil vacuum. The single biggest change in the political order is the rise of China over the last 30 or 40 years, and it becomes an enormous economic entity with a complete set of both manufacturing and the technology self-sufficiency and a single largest market that is also open and unified regulation. That is a huge change to both the political order and the economic order that we are now witnessing, and that's really the changes we are seeing.
同时，正如我所说，我们之间的相互依赖，不仅没有减少，反而在这段时间里增加了。我给你举个例子：在生成式人工智能领域，每个人都需要的东西就是芯片，半导体芯片。那么这些芯片是在哪里生产的呢？你想到所有生产半导体芯片的国家，他们都有一个共同点。你猜猜这个共同点可能是什么？不好意思，我不是在考你，只是说到这里就想到了半导体。其实我本来想开放问题给大家，就像土豆一样，半导体有什么共同特性呢？所以，是的，所有生产半导体芯片的地方都有一个共同点，而这些芯片对当前的技术浪潮至关重要，似乎所有国家都在押注于此。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
At the same time, you know that our mutual dependency, as I said, it was one single market has only increased, not decreased over that period of time. I give you one example: for example, that in generative AI, for example, the one thing that everybody needed is chips, semiconductor chips. Where those chips are being made? Where are they? You think about all the countries that produce all the semiconductor chips; they have one thing in common. One thing in common, what do you think that might be? Sorry, I'm not putting you on the spot; you know now I have to think about semiconductors. I was thinking that I need to open it for questions, you know, like potato—what do they have semiconductors in common? So yeah, one thing in common of all the places that produce semiconductor chips that are essential for this current technological wave and the whole country seems to be batting on.
这意味着每一个生产半导体芯片的国家和所有相关的人都使用筷子。想一想，没有例外。抱歉，印度不生产半导体芯片；你们不使用筷子。是的，我说的就是制造。这当然也包括该领域内的所有领导者，从黄仁勋到苏姿丰等等，所有的人都是如此。所以在这个行业中存在很强的相互依赖性。正如你所看到的，如果你像我们当前一样全心投入到这项新技术中，考虑到它带来的承诺和挑战，你就必须善待使用筷子的人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That is every country and all the people who produce the semiconductor chips; all use chopsticks. Think about that without exception. Sorry, India doesn't produce semiconductor chips; you don't use chopsticks. Yes, that's right; I mean fabrication, yes. And of course, all the people who are leading all the semiconductor companies in this country also use chopsticks—from Jensen to Lisa Su to others; you name it, all of them. So there is a great deal of a mutual dependency. Yeah, as you can see that if you're really batting to the extent we are currently batting as a country, as a company, as companies into this new technology, whatever the promise and apparel as it could be, that you have to be nice to people who use chopsticks.
这就是现状，并且不会改变。这并非偶然发生；我们可以探讨其中的原因。重点在于：美国总统和中国主席在八个月内四次会晤是有其急迫性的。在这些会议中，最重要的成果之一就是安排下一次会晤。这是战略稳定的重要性；换句话说，这种稳定具有战略重要性，并突显出全球统一市场的共识。自愿退出的代价以及相互依赖性使得这种稳定能够和平维持。当然，大家在此期间都在无所畏惧地竞争，并相信时间站在自己这边。比如，中国希望在芯片自给自足上取得突破，美国则寄望于AI技术的突破会带来改变，而其他国家则有不同的考量。但这一切都强调了和平稳定对每个人至关重要，是具有战略重要性的。大国有责任和愿望保持这样的局面，而所有国家都感受到单一统一市场的份量，以及退出它所带来的代价。因此，世界在这方面总体上将继续进步。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so this is, and it's not changing. It didn't really happen by accident; we could go into why. And it comes really look: there is a reason that the president of the United States and the president of China find an urgency to meet four times in eight months. Two into it, the other two: really the most important accomplishment of every meeting is we schedule the next meeting. And this comes really the term of strategic stability; in other words, the stability is of a strategic importance and highlighted the sense of a common one global market. The cost of withdrawing voluntarily from it and mutual dependence keep it in a peaceful manner. And of course, everybody meanwhile competing fearlessly, all believing the time is on their side. You know, on China to complete that semiconductor is sufficient self-sufficient and all kinds of others on the u.s hoping the breakthrough of the ai would really compromise and other countries have different set of a calculation but it all comes to highlight the peaceful stability of a paramount importance to everyone is of a strategic importance and the largest the countries really do have the responsibility and also the desire to keep it that way and all the country would have fell the weight of one single common market and the cost of us of withdrawing from that one and so the world by and large will continue to progress in that regard.
自第二次世界大战结束以来，我们已经习惯的秩序正在发生某种程度的变化和转变。我们还不知道最终会形成什么样的格局，但一个具有更长久影响力的趋势已在形成，即全球单一共同市场的建立将成为一种常态。那么，对于投资者来说，这意味着什么呢？在某种意义上，我们回归到价值投资的基本原则中的六大原则。我们新增的最后一条原则是，作为全球投资者，你的财富表达为全球购买力的百分比所有权。实现这一目标的一种方式，也就是我们一直在实践的方法，就是通过在充满活力的国家和市场中，以有利的价格购买优秀企业，并长期持有它们，以此创造价值，保持我们的股份比例，并随着时间的推移增加它。这是我们一直在践行的方法之一。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The order that we have get familiar with since the end of world war ii is somewhat changing and transforming and what we emerge out of it in what format is yet to be seen but the underlying progression formation of another thing that is of more permanent impact is the forming of global one single common market is here to stay now what is the implication for a investor in a sense we come back to our basic tenet of value investing of the six principles the last one that we added is as a global investor your wealth is expressed as your is the percentage ownership of a global purchasing power and one way to accomplish that certainly the way we have been practicing is by buying great businesses in dynamic countries and market at advantages advantageous prices and hold them for the long term to create those value and preserve our percentage and also grow it over time and that's the one way that we have practiced that.
好的，快速翻译一下这段话：
嗯，我是EL2 Capital的Ed Lugo，再次感谢你，我非常感激。我想了解一下你对中国人工智能和美国人工智能之间差异的看法，好吗？这会很棒，谢谢。好的，我再接受两个问题。同时，有人举手吗？哦，最后面有一个，还有这边有一个。对，我们来做三个问题。好的，这是来自Joss Hopkins的问题，你提到了中国市场，所以我想听听你对中国股市是否可以成为目标对象的看法，在哪里成本不成问题。这是个好问题。再一个问题。嗨，我是来自Unison的Dan Bacalars，我很好奇你是如何评估政治风险的，尤其是在规则可能会一夜之间改变的情况下，考虑到你在投资中国企业上非常成功。这些问题都与中国在人工智能方面的策略、中国市场是否客观以及你如何评估政治风险有关，当然它们是互相关联的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah just real quickly uh ed lugo from el2 capital um thank you again i really appreciate it i just want to get your sense of the difference between chinese ai and american ai okay it would be great thank you good i'll take two more questions same time yeah someone else was raising their hand yeah all the way in the back there you have one and oh someone here too yeah we'll do three questions yeah let's do this couple up three questions yeah yeah it's a question from joss hopkins and you mentioned about the chinese market so i want to learn to listen about your opportunity opinion about whether the chinese stock market could be the object see object where the cost didn't have that's a good question actually yeah one more one more yeah hi dan bacalars from unison i'm just curious how you underwrite uh political risk you know when the rules can change overnight considering you've been so successful investing in chinese businesses okay good okay so the chinese approach towards ai whether chinese market is objective or cost and how do you underwrite political risk they're all connected of course.
如果要描述硅谷对人工智能的态度，核心问题是这项技术还能做些什么。这是他们之所以仍将其称为“实验室”的原因，因为他们希望探索这项技术的边界和潜能。而我认为，中国的人工智能公司也对这些问题充满好奇，但更重要的是，他们关心这项技术能为客户做些什么，无论是消费者还是企业客户。这体现出一种截然不同的方法，从各种不同的指标中可以看到，这会导致不同的结果。
中国股市是客观的，还是有成本的？在不同的时间点上，他们的侧重点不同。但是，当你把个人家庭和国家的核心资产负债表都考虑在内时，当房地产的比例开始显著下降（注意，它不会永远下降因为它有实际价值），就要思考什么将构成国家和人民、家庭的财富。
回答这个问题时，你会发现，无论是今天还是将来的某一时刻，必须有其他资产增长，这些资产不仅随着经济增长而增长，实际上是因为经济而增长，也是经济增长的原因。所以它们完全处于一个相互推动的循环中。
在谈及政治风险时，需要真正理解在特定时间的目标以及历史背景，并仔细审视记录。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Okay so if you describe the silicon valley approach to ai the fundamental question is what else this technology can do that's the primary that's why they still call them labs as a research labs i want to see what else they can do how far can we put the edge of it that's why i also kind of frontier the chinese ai companies I would say are fundamentally curious about those questions as well but in addition and more importantly ask what can this technology do to my customers both my consumers and enterprise customers there lies a very different approach and you can see from various different metrics to see how that result will be different the chinese stock market is that objective or is that cost okay the different times they emphasizes a different but when you think about when you when your primary balance sheet of both individual families as well as a nation when the real estate as a proportion began to really go down in one way by the way they don't really oh forever go down because it has a real value what in the place would constitute the wealth of the nation and the wealth of the people and the families now when you answer that question you would say that at some point whether it's today or is another time it has to be and so that is the only asset that grow with the economy in fact grow because of the economy and also really is the reason why the economy grows so they all in and basically in the flywheel together now on the political risk that comes to do really understanding the objective at any given time and the history and examining the record.
尽管所有这些问题不直接与中国相关，但与美国相关的问题却有很多。我们的整个世界仍然在一定程度上是基于国家解决方案进行组织的，这就是我们所处的现实。因此，在考虑所有这些因素时，我们应该将其应用到我们运作的每一个国家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
of all of it and doesn't really related to china and relate to u.s a whole bunch of different questions our whole world is still somewhat organized based on nation solving state and that's just the reality we live with so with all the consideration we talk about and we should apply that to all of the country you operate.