Markets Weekly October 17, 2026

在本期于10月17日发布的《每周市场》（Markets Weekly）节目中，主持人回顾了市场艰难的一周，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数均跌破了50日移动平均线，同时伴随着明显的资金涌入国债以寻求避险。驱动市场的核心担忧是中东局势潜在的升级迹象，以及人工智能交易内部开始显现的裂痕。 从宏观背景出发，主持人审视了大银行的财报，涉及的机构包括摩根大通、花旗和富国银行。这些银行表明，美国经济依然稳健，名义支出强劲（摩根大通报告称信用卡和借记卡交易额同比增长10%）。然而，仔细审视美国银行的数据，这一支出增长的很大一部分是由更高的汽油价格驱动的，这与整体GDP统计数据相呼应，即2%的实际增长伴随着3%或4%的通胀。总体而言，在富有韧性的劳动力市场的支撑下，信贷继续以健康的步伐流动。 在通胀方面，最近的CPI和PPI数据表现得比预期更为炽热。根据克利夫兰联储的数据，受能源价格（汽油、航空煤油）上涨的推动，PCE通胀呈上升趋势，这存在向更广泛的基础生活成本传导的风险。尽管如此，美联储官员已强烈暗示10月不会加息，这使得11月加息的可能性降低，而12月加息的可能性更高。（注：原文此处逻辑对应原文，不作主观修正）主席沃什最近在泰国举行的国际货币基金组织小组会议上的发言表明，数据正在按预期演变，从而消除了10月份采取行动的紧迫性。主持人指出，来自较长期收益率的收紧金融条件以及即将到来的11月大选，使得10月份暂停加息成为明智之举，除非股市暴跌。 债券市场继续与不断上涨的油价紧密联动，由于沙特阿拉伯和也门之间的进一步冲突升级，油价正在飙升。胡塞武装叛军轻而易举地打击了沙特的能源基础设施——加之人们认为沙特缺乏防御能力——正导致油价飙升，从而持续带来通胀推动力。 然而，本周市场的焦点主要集中在人工智能交易的裂痕上，这对外真实经济增长构成了威胁，因为很大一部分GDP增长依赖于人工智能基础设施的建设。主持人指出了三个主要裂痕： 1. **中国的技术突破：** 中国在RAM技术和GPU产能方面的追赶速度快于预期，这对美光、SK海力士、三星和英伟达等公司的巨额利润构成了威胁。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）经历了抛物线式的冲高回落，随后表现疲软。 2. **新型云服务商（NeoClouds）：** 诸如CoreWeave这样高杠杆的公司（借款35亿美元用于购买和出租计算能力），面临着来自资产价值波动、模型构建者（如Anthropic）潜在的需求转变以及高利率风险的巨大威胁。CoreWeave的信用违约互换（CDS）价格正在飙升，并且一家澳大利亚新型云服务商撤回了其首次公开募股（IPO）。 3. **模型层：** 像Anthropic这样的模型构建者报告的收入增长低于投资者预期，这使他们高企的估值目标变得更加复杂。 尽管正处于通常具有支撑作用的月度期权到期日，但市场依然遭到抛售。VIX指数飙升至20以上，表明看跌期权购买量增加。此外，中期选举前加剧的地缘政治风险（例如佩特教授估计伊朗发动打击的概率为66%）以及与白宫行动相关的可疑石油交易，进一步加剧了市场的不安情绪。 最后，主持人重申，在进入这个充满风险的时期时，债券仍然是一个强有力的对冲工具，因为避险事件将推动对债券的买盘并拉低利率，而潜在的局势解决则可以压低油价并减少美联储加息的需求。

In this episode of Markets Weekly, published on October 17th, the host reviews a difficult week for markets where the S&P 500 and NASDAQ both lost their 50-day moving averages, accompanied by a noticeable flight to safety into Treasury Securities. The primary concerns driving the market are potential escalations in the Middle East and emerging cracks within the AI trade. Starting with the macro backdrop, the host examines big bank earnings from institutions like J.P. Morgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo. These banks indicate that the U.S. economy remains solid with strong nominal spending (J.P. Morgan reporting a 10% year-over-year growth in credit and debit card transactions). However, looking closely at Bank of America’s data, a significant portion of this spending increase is driven by higher gasoline prices, mirroring aggregate GDP statistics where 2% real growth is accompanied by 3% or 4% inflation. Overall, credit continues to flow at a healthy pace, supported by a resilient labor market. On inflation, recent CPI and PPI data came in hotter than expected. According to the Cleveland Fed, PCE inflation is trending upwards, driven by rising energy prices (gasoline, jet fuel) which risk flowing into broader basics. Despite this, Federal Reserve officials have strongly signaled no rate hike in October, leaving a December hike more likely. Chair Warsh’s recent comments at an IMF panel in Thailand suggested data is evolving as expected, removing urgency for an October move. The host notes that tighter financial conditions from longer-lived yields and the upcoming November election make a pause in October sensible unless equity markets tank. The bond market continues to trade closely with rising oil prices, which are surging due to further escalation between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Houthi rebel forces easily striking Saudi energy infrastructure—and Saudi Arabia's perceived lack of defense capacity—are causing oil prices to spike, creating ongoing inflationary impulses. However, the markets focused heavily this week on cracks in the AI trade, which poses a threat to real economic growth since a large portion of GDP growth relies on AI build-outs. The host highlights three major cracks: 1. **Technological Breakthroughs in China:** China is catching up faster than expected in RAM technology and GPU production capacity, which threatens major profits for companies like Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and NVIDIA. The KOSPI index has seen a parabolic blow-off top followed by poor performance. 2. **NeoClouds:** Highly levered companies like CoreWeave, which borrowed $35 billion to buy and lease out compute, face immense risk from fluctuating asset values, potential demand shifts from model builders like Anthropic, and exposure to higher interest rates. CoreWeave's credit default swap (CDS) prices are spiking, and an Australian neocloud pulled its IPO. 3. **Model Layer:** Model builders like Anthropic are reporting revenue growth lower than investor expectations, complicating their lofty valuation goals. Despite being in monthly options expiration, which is usually supportive, the market sold off. The VIX soared above 20%, indicating increased put option buying. Furthermore, heightened geopolitical risks ahead of midterms—such as Professor Pate estimating a 66% probability of an Iranian strike—and suspicious oil trades tied to White House actions are adding to market unease. Finally, the host reiterates that bonds remain a strong hedge going into this dicey period, as a risk-off event would drive a bid for bonds, lowering rates, while potential resolutions could bring down oil prices and reduce the need for Fed hikes.