Live from New Delhi: What the World's Financial Leaders Fear Most

在本期《特朗普经济学》（Trumponomics）节目中，主持人斯蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯（Stephanie Flanders）从在印度新德里举办的彭博年度新经济论坛（Bloomberg’s annual New Economy Forum）发回报道。本期节目探讨了宏观经济转变、地缘政治不稳定、人工智能的迅猛崛起，以及管理全球风险和经济韧性所面临的挑战。 节目开篇，彭博全球首席经济学家汤姆·奥利里克（Tom Orlick）将全球经济与荷马史诗《奥德赛》中待客之道的崩塌进行了类比。奥利里克讨论了美国财政部借贷成本的上升，并指出10年期利率目前已超过5%。这一增长背后的驱动因素包括：战争成本更高的世界、地缘政治裂痕阻碍了传统外国买家（如中国、俄罗斯和石油输出国）购买美国国债，以及伊朗战争等冲击推高了通货膨胀。 奥利里克还指出了关于贸易和人工智能的一个惊人悖论：尽管有唐纳德·特朗普的关税，但贸易逆差和顺差却激增至历史最高水平。与2000年代初东亚贸易顺差由购买安全美国国债的保守派央行管理不同，如今的大规模资本由敏捷的私人投资者管理，他们将资金直接投入股票、公司债券和人工智能革命。虽然人工智能乐观主义者认为这是增长的加速，但悲观主义者警告称，潜在的市场崩盘将把经济痛苦蔓延至全球。 随后，主持人斯蒂芬妮·弗兰德斯转向由埃里克·沙茨克（Eric Schatzke）主持的一场重要小组会议，该会议汇集了英国前首相里希·苏纳克（Rishi Sunak）、黑石集团总裁兼首席运营官约翰·格雷（John Gray）以及塔塔父子（Tata & Sons）董事长N·钱德拉（N. Chandra）。 小组成员讨论了当前全球风险空前绝后的性质——地缘政治、气候事件、市场混乱和技术颠覆同时发生的“鸡尾酒”。钱德拉强调，虽然他这家拥有160年历史的集团经历过世界大战和大流行病，但现代混乱的同时发生是独一无二的。 技术，尤其是人工智能，占据了讨论的主导地位。里希·苏纳克将人工智能不仅描述为一场新的工业革命，而且描述为结合了工业革命、启蒙运动和印刷术的三重奏。虽然人工智能将提高人类的底线，但它也降低了坏演员的进入门槛，这需要政策制定者建立强有力的治理和公众信任。钱德拉指出，近期的人力重组和来自坏演员的威胁，与中长期潜力相平衡。 另一个主要主题是西方财政的可持续性。约翰·格雷强调，运行在内在增长率远之上的赤字的西方政府缺乏财政可持续性，这导致了债券市场的清算和负担能力挑战，尤其是在住房方面。虽然欧洲由于低增长（例如在法国和英国）而面临严峻的制约因素，但格雷认为，美国受益于更年轻的人口以及由人工智能投资和资本流入驱动的更高增长，尽管美国最终将面临艰难的选择。 对话转向了韧性与效率。格雷指出，虽然供应链多元化增加了增量成本，但由于强劲的收入和利润增长，公司在很大程度上吸收了这些成本。钱德拉坚决拒绝在动荡的世界中韧性是效率的反面的观点，断言为韧性而设计本身就是在为效率进行优化。苏纳克指出，建立韧性（例如储能）本质上是通货膨胀性的，需要仔细的政府激励措施，而不能滑向保护主义，他提到了去风险而非脱钩的“小院高墙”概念。 展望未来和可预测性，钱德拉解释说，塔塔以世代为时间跨度运营，专注于钢铁、电力、先进制造和半导体等基本需求。约翰·格雷表示，黑石正在大力押注电力基础设施（随着人工智能向实体世界移动）、数字基础设施、国防、生命科学以及印度极其明朗的经济未来。 最后，里希·苏纳克总结道，正如一个国家如果不具备高能源就无法成为高收入国家一样，未来几十年的关键基础设施将是智能和算力，以及人类独创性的持久力量。

In this episode of *Trumponomics*, host Stephanie Flanders reports from Bloomberg’s annual New Economy Forum in New Delhi, India. The episode explores the intersection of macroeconomic shifts, geopolitical instability, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, and the challenges of managing global risk and economic resilience. The episode opens with Tom Orlick, Bloomberg's global chief economist, drawing parallels between the global economy and the breakdown of rules of hospitality in Homer's *Odyssey*. Orlick discusses the rising cost of borrowing for the U.S. Treasury, noting that 10-year rates are now north of 5%. This increase is driven by a world where war is more expensive, geopolitical ruptures prevent traditional foreign buyers (like China, Russia, and petrostates) from purchasing U.S. treasuries, and shocks like the Iran war push inflation higher. Orlick also highlights a striking paradox regarding trade and AI: despite Donald Trump's tariffs, trade deficits and surpluses have exploded to record highs. Unlike the early 2000s, when East Asian trade surpluses were managed by conservative central banks buying safe U.S. treasuries, today's massive capital is managed by nimble private investors channeling funds directly into stocks, corporate bonds, and the AI revolution. While AI optimists view this as an acceleration of growth, pessimists warn that a potential market crash would spread economic pain globally. Host Stephanie Flanders then turns to a prominent panel session moderated by Eric Schatzke, featuring former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Blackstone President and COO John Gray, and Tata & Sons Chairman N. Chandra. The panelists discuss the unprecedented nature of current global risks—a "cocktail" of geopolitics, climate events, market dislocations, and technological disruption occurring all at once. Chandra emphasizes that while his 160-year-old group has survived world wars and pandemics, the simultaneous nature of modern disruptions is unique. Technology, particularly AI, dominates the discussion. Rishi Sunak describes AI not just as a new Industrial Revolution, but as a trifecta combining the Industrial Revolution, the Enlightenment, and the printing press. While AI will raise the floor for humanity, it lowers barriers to entry for bad actors, requiring policymakers to establish robust governance and public trust. Chandra notes the near-term labor restructuring and threats from bad actors, balanced by medium- and long-term potential. Another major theme is Western fiscal sustainability. John Gray highlights the lack of fiscal sustainability in Western governments running deficits well above inherent growth rates, leading to bond market reckonings and affordability challenges, particularly in housing. While Europe faces severe constraints due to low growth (such as in France and the UK), Gray argues that the U.S. benefits from a younger population and higher growth driven by AI investments and capital inflows, though America will eventually face tough choices. The conversation shifts to resilience versus efficiency. Gray notes that while supply chain diversification adds incremental costs, companies are largely absorbing them due to robust revenue and margin growth. Chandra firmly rejects the idea that resilience is the opposite of efficiency in a volatile world, asserting that designing for resilience *is* optimizing for efficiency. Sunak points out that building resilience—such as energy storage—is inherently inflationary and requires careful government incentives without sliding into protectionism, referencing the "small yard, high fence" concept of de-risking rather than decoupling. Looking toward the future and predictability, Chandra explains that Tata operates on generational timeframes, focusing on fundamental needs like steel, power, advanced manufacturing, and semiconductors. John Gray states that Blackstone is betting heavily on electricity infrastructure (as AI moves to the physical world), digital infrastructure, defense, life sciences, and the exceptionally bright economic future of India. Finally, Rishi Sunak concludes that just as a country cannot be high-income without being high-energy, the critical infrastructure of the coming decades will be intelligence and compute, alongside the enduring power of human ingenuity.