TIVP102 (Video): Hermès and LVMH Stock: Time to Buy Luxury? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
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在本期内在价值播客（Intrinsic Value Podcast）中，主持人肖恩·奥马利（Sean O'Malley）和丹尼尔·蒙卡（Daniel Monka）审视了奢侈时尚巨头路威酩轩（LVMH）和爱马仕（Hermès）的现状。由于宏观相关的回调，两家公司目前的交易价格接近历史估值低点，主持人们探讨了这些“坠落的天使”是否带来了有吸引力的买入机会。
### 奢侈品市场现状
更广泛的个人奢侈品市场估值约为3600亿美元，自2023年底以来，每年缩水50亿至60亿美元。一个主要因素是“抱负型买家”（aspirational buyers）的撤退——这类消费者依赖月薪，通常每年花费1500至5000美元。2022年至2025年期间，奢侈品行业失去了约7000万客户，客户数量从4亿下降至3.3亿至3.4亿。
2019年至2023年期间激进的涨价——例如一款路易威登（Louis Vuitton）手袋从1500美元跃升至2500美元——将许多中产阶级上层的抱负型购物者挡在了门外。与此同时，每年消费超过5万欧元的超高净值个人继续推动稳定的需求，使爱马仕等顶级品牌以及以珠宝为主导的历峰集团（Richemont）等受益。
### 公司比较：路威酩轩对阵爱马仕
* **路威酩轩（LVMH）：** 作为全球最大的奢侈品企业集团，路威酩轩在五个领域拥有超过75个品牌，主要以时装和皮革制品（路易威登、迪奥、思琳等）为支柱。路威酩轩更依赖抱负型买家，因此其周期性更强。其销售额已连续两年下降，亚洲营收较2023年的峰值下降了约20%。其葡萄酒和烈酒部门（轩尼诗、酩悦）也受到了库存过剩以及美国和中国干邑消费下降的困扰。
* **爱马仕（Hermès）：** 爱马仕主要作为一个单一品牌运营，并采取严格的供应限制策略，通过一种“把关”系统来保护其享有盛誉的手袋（如伯金包和凯莉包），该系统要求客户首先积累购买较低级别商品的消费记录。尽管爱马仕也面临增长放缓的问题，但除了疫情期间之外，它避免了全年销售额的负增长。
### 地缘压力：中国与中东
* **中国：** 中国内地曾是增长最快的市场，但由于长期的房地产危机而陷入低迷。作为财富主要储藏手段的房地产价值已经连续四年下降。中产阶级为了偿还抵押贷款而控制了支出，而超级富豪则面临着不断变化的政治视角和公众审视。
* **中东：** 尽管中东在市场中所占份额较小（约占爱马仕销售额的4%，占历峰集团销售额的9%），但迪拜等枢纽地区的区域不确定性和受阻的旅游业，暂时让一个品牌原本希望能够抵消中国影响的关键增长地区按下了暂停键。
* **美国：** 美国市场仍然是一个亮点，上半年爱马仕的销售额增长了15%，这得到了强劲的股市和人工智能催生的百万富翁的支持。
### 估值与投资前景
丹尼尔以12%的障碍率（hurdle rate）对这些公司进行了评估：
* **爱马仕：** 交易价格在1400欧元左右，具有32倍的稳定退出市盈率，基本情景下7%至8%的复合年收入增长率（CAGR）可产生大约12%至13%的预期年回报率。
* **路威酩轩：** 假设收入增长3%至4%，市盈率为20倍，路威酩轩的预期回报率约为11%，略低于他们的障碍率。
最终，两位主持人都还没有准备好买入。尽管两人都承认顶级奢侈品持久的品牌实力和定价能力，但在投资该行业之前，他们更愿意等待更彻底的投降式抛售、更大的市场恐惧或更有吸引力的入场市盈率。
In this episode of the Intrinsic Value Podcast, hosts Sean O'Malley and Daniel Monka examine the current state of luxury fashion giants LVMH and Hermès. Trading near historical valuation lows following macro-related pullbacks, the hosts investigate whether these "fallen angels" present an attractive buying opportunity.
### State of the Luxury Market
The broader personal luxury goods market is valued at roughly $360 billion and has been shrinking by $5 to $6 billion per year since the end of 2023. A major factor is the pullback of "aspirational buyers"—consumers who rely on monthly paychecks and typically spend $1,500 to $5,000 annually. Between 2022 and 2025, the luxury industry lost about 70 million customers, dropping from 400 million to 330–340 million.
Aggressive price increases between 2019 and 2023—such as a Louis Vuitton bag jumping from $1,500 to $2,500—priced out many upper-middle-class aspirational shoppers. Meanwhile, high-net-worth individuals spending over 50,000 euros annually continue to drive steady demand, benefiting top-tier brands like Hermès and jewelry-focused groups like Richemont.
### Company Comparisons: LVMH vs. Hermès
* **LVMH:** As the world's largest luxury conglomerate, LVMH owns over 75 brands across five segments, heavily anchored by fashion and leather goods (Louis Vuitton, Dior, Celine, etc.). LVMH relies more heavily on aspirational buyers, making it more cyclical. It has experienced declining sales for two consecutive years, with Asia revenues down about 20% from their 2023 peak. Its wine and spirits division (Hennessy, Moet) also suffered from inventory gluts and declining US/Chinese cognac consumption.
* **Hermès:** Operating primarily as a single brand with a strict supply-limitation strategy, Hermès protects its prestigious bags (like the Birkin and Kelly) through a "gating" system that requires customers to build a purchase history with lower-tier items first. While Hermès has also faced slowing growth, it has avoided negative full-year sales growth outside the pandemic.
### Geographic Pressures: China and the Middle East
* **China:** Formerly the fastest-growing market, mainland China has slumped due to a prolonged real estate crisis where property values—the primary store of wealth—have fallen for four years. The middle class has reined in spending to pay down mortgages, while the ultra-rich face shifting political optics and public scrutiny.
* **Middle East:** Although accounting for a smaller share of the market (around 4% of Hermès sales and 9% for Richemont), regional uncertainty and disrupted tourism in hubs like Dubai have temporarily paused a key growth region that brands hoped would offset China.
* **United States:** The US market remains a bright spot, growing 15% for Hermès in the first half and backed by a strong stock market and AI-minted millionaires.
### Valuation and Investment Outlook
Daniel evaluates the companies using a hurdle rate of 12%:
* **Hermès:** Trading around 1,400 euros with a stable exit multiple of 32x, a base-case 7% to 8% revenue CAGR yields an expected annual return of roughly 12% to 13%.
* **LVMH:** Assuming 3% to 4% revenue growth and a multiple of 20x, LVMH's expected return comes to roughly 11%, falling slightly short of their hurdle rate.
Ultimately, neither host is ready to buy. While both acknowledge the enduring brand strength and pricing power of top-tier luxury, they prefer to wait for deeper capitulation, greater market fear, or more attractive entry multiples before investing in the sector.
摘要
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit the two luxury houses they passed on last time — Hermès (EPA: RMS), the 189-year-old maker of the Birkin bag, and LVMH (EPA: MC), the 75-brand conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, and Hennessy. Both stocks now sit near their lows: Hermès is down more than 50% from its February 2025 peak and trades at 32 times earnings for the first time in a decade, while LVMH has fallen to a five-year low after two straight years of declining sales — something that didn't even happen in 2009. The luxury industry has lost roughly 70 million customers since 2022, the Chinese market that tripled between 2017 and 2021 has been shrinking ever since, and a war in the Gulf emptied the stores on the Champs-Élysées of their best-spending tourists.
But some brands are growing. Daniel and Shawn work out why Richemont can grow 20% in the same quarter LVMH grows 3%, why Hermès still earns a 41% margin while LVMH's fashion and leather division has given back seven points of margin in five years, and why the top 0.1% of luxury clients keep spending while the aspirational buyer walks away. They also cover the Chinese property bust and its five-to-six-year playbook, and how prior luxury downturns in 2009, 2016, and 2020 ended. In the end, Daniel updates both valuation models and decides whether either Hermès or LVMH finally earns a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:41) About the state of the luxury market
(00:14:03) How Hermès’ business has done since our first pitch
(00:18:31) What makes LVMH and Hermès special
(00:26:59) How LVMH’s business has done since our first pitch
(00:29:00) How China is impacting the luxury market
(00:35:54) How long past luxury downturns were
(00:55:02) Why Hermès has an even better chance of recovering quickly
(01:01:43) Valuation discussion
(01:03:27) Intrinsic value of RMS
(01:05:02) Intrinsic value of LVMH
(01:05:25) Whether LVMH or RMS will be added to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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