20VC: The Future of Datacentres: What You Need to Know | Why Everyone Gets GPU Depreciation and AI's Energy Costs Wrong | Who Really Makes Money From AI & Why Most Moats Don't Exist with Chase Lochmiller
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在 20VC 的一次引人入胜的采访中,Crusoe Energy 首席执行官蔡斯·洛克米勒(Chase Lockmiller)深入探讨了该公司在最近完成 39 亿美元 F 轮融资后,成为一家“人工智能超级巨头”(AI super major)的宏伟征程。洛克米勒分享了对 Crusoe 独特垂直整合战略、人工智能基础设施不断演变的格局,以及他由登山经历和之前的量化金融职业生涯塑造的个人哲学的见解。
洛克米勒首先将他对登山的热情与 Crusoe 的公司文化联系起来,强调韧性、应对变化的准备、耐力以及强烈的安全意识。他回顾了 2018 年攀登珠穆朗玛峰之后的一个个人转折点,当时没有明确的道路,这促使他考虑要么投资自己的资金,要么应对重大的创业挑战。这个时期催生了 Crusoe,最初的目标是构建一个人工智能平台,但首先通过比特币挖矿将废弃能源变现。他指出,此前的财务成功使他能够承担更大的风险,从而取得更大的成就。
从比特币到人工智能的“转型”,虽然看起来是外部驱动的,但却是公司内部的长期目标。洛克米勒强调,2022 年 11 月 30 日 ChatGPT 的发布是一个关键时刻,它极大地改变了全球对人工智能计算的认知和需求。Crusoe 在 2022 年初就已经推出了其云平台,因此处于独特的有利地位。洛克米勒预见到人工智能基础设施将部署在能源丰富且成本低廉的地方,而不是像传统数据中心那样集中化。这一愿景要求深入关注设计人工智能专用数据中心并确保能源供应。
洛克米勒强调,目前主要的供应限制是缺乏合适的 GPU 部署点。他将供应链描述为一场“打地鼠游戏”,在这种游戏中,垂直整合让 Crusoe 能够克服瓶颈。举例来说,当市场交货期为 100 周时,Crusoe 在 28 周内开发了自己的配电中心。这种垂直整合不仅确保了及时交付,还提供了关键的成本透明度。
针对公众对数据中心的担忧,洛克米勒驳斥了常见的误解。他表示,现代人工智能数据中心使用的“水几乎为零”,他引用了 Crusoe 位于阿比林(Abilene)的设施,该设施每年的用水量仅相当于 10 户独栋住宅的用水量。他还指出,与普遍看法相反,数据中心通过促进发电能力投资,往往会为社区带来*更低*的能源价格。合理但暂时的担忧包括施工交通和噪音。洛克米勒强调了通过创造就业、税收收入(例如,使阿比林(Abilene)的学校税收翻倍)以及整体经济发展对当地经济的积极影响。
Crusoe 的商业模式围绕销售三个核心产品展开:数据中心、GPU 和代币。洛克米勒将 Crusoe 比作一家“人工智能超级巨头”,类似于石油和天然气行业的埃克森美孚(Exxon),垂直整合了上游、中游和下游业务。这一战略本身就能对冲市场波动;例如,尽管由于短缺,目前 GPU 租赁利润很高,但 Crusoe 多样化的产品(包括托管推理和微调服务)在不同利润结构之间提供了灵活性。他强调,“GPU 实际上是整个数据中心中最有价值的东西”,使内存(如 KV 缓存)的有效利用和管理对于经济高效地交付代币至关重要。
关于芯片折旧,Crusoe 采用六年周期,但他们通过托管服务抽象底层芯片的策略旨在将变现时间延长更久。洛克米勒对应用程序开发者利用计算能力创造价值的独创性表示乐观,并指出早期的投资者往往低估了芯片价值的持久性。他承认预测需求的挑战,但指出 Crusoe 专注于模块化、工厂制造的数据中心,以实现更及时的 AI 基础设施交付。
洛克米勒以个人反思结束,强调了尽管职业生涯要求很高,但通过有意识地安排时间和在场来优先考虑家庭的重要性。他的“非主流观点”是数据中心是社区的积极资产,它们因其经济和社会贡献而值得庆祝。他表示不担心收入或财富不平等,相信人工智能创造的整体价值将造福人类。回顾过去,2018 年的蔡斯会觉得 Crusoe 雄心勃勃愿景的规模和实现“难以置信”,特别是人工智能的深远影响以及近 2,000 名为公司投入职业生涯的人。
In a captivating interview on 20VC, Chase Lockmiller, CEO of Crusoe Energy, offered a deep dive into the company's ambitious journey to become an "AI super major," following their recent $3.9 billion Series F round. Lockmiller shared insights into Crusoe's unique vertical integration strategy, the evolving landscape of AI infrastructure, and his personal philosophy shaped by mountaineering and a prior career in quantitative finance.
Lockmiller began by connecting his passion for mountaineering to Crusoe's company culture, emphasizing resilience, preparedness for change, endurance, and a strong safety mindset. He recounted a personal turning point in 2018 after climbing Mount Everest, where an absence of a clear path led him to consider either investing his own money or tackling significant entrepreneurial challenges. This period birthed Crusoe, initially driven by a goal to build an AI platform, but first monetizing waste energy through Bitcoin mining. He noted that prior financial success empowered him to take bigger risks, leading to bigger outcomes.
The "pivot" from Bitcoin to AI, while appearing external, was an internal long-term goal. Lockmiller highlighted the launch of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, as the pivotal moment that dramatically shifted global perception and demand for AI compute. Crusoe, having already launched its cloud platform in early 2022, was uniquely positioned. Lockmiller foresaw AI infrastructure being distributed where energy was abundant and low-cost, rather than centralized like traditional data centers. This vision necessitated a deep focus on designing AI-specific data centers and securing energy resources.
Lockmiller stressed that the primary supply constraint today is the lack of suitable places to plug in GPUs. He described the supply chain as a "game of whack-a-mole," where vertical integration allows Crusoe to navigate bottlenecks. As an example, Crusoe developed its own power distribution centers in 28 weeks when market lead times were 100 weeks. This vertical integration not only ensures timely delivery but also provides crucial cost transparency.
Addressing public concerns about data centers, Lockmiller debunked common myths. He stated that modern AI data centers use "pretty close to zero water," citing Crusoe's Abilene facility, which uses water equivalent to only 10 single-family homes annually. He also argued that data centers, contrary to popular belief, often lead to *lower* energy prices for communities by catalyzing investment in generation capacity. Legitimate, albeit temporary, concerns include construction traffic and noise. Lockmiller emphasized the positive impact on local economies through job creation, tax revenue (e.g., doubling school tax receipts in Abilene), and overall economic development.
Crusoe's business model is framed around selling three core products: data centers, GPUs, and tokens. Lockmiller likened Crusoe to an "AI super major," akin to Exxon in the oil and gas industry, vertically integrated across upstream, midstream, and downstream operations. This strategy inherently hedges against market fluctuations; for instance, while GPU rental margins are currently high due to shortages, Crusoe's diverse offerings (including managed inference and fine-tuning services) provide flexibility across different margin profiles. He highlighted that the "GPU is actually the most valuable thing in the entire data center," making efficient utilization and management of memory (like the KV cache) critical for delivering tokens cost-effectively.
Regarding chip depreciation, Crusoe uses a six-year cycle, but their strategy of abstracting away the underlying chip through managed services aims to extend monetization for much longer. Lockmiller expressed optimism about the ingenuity of application developers in creating value from compute capacity, noting that early financers often underestimated the longevity of chip value. He acknowledged the challenge of forecasting demand but pointed to Crusoe's focus on modular, manufactured data centers to enable more just-in-time AI infrastructure delivery.
Lockmiller concluded with personal reflections, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing family despite a demanding career by consciously scheduling and being present. His "unpopular belief" is that data centers are positive assets for communities, deserving of celebration for their economic and social contributions. He expressed that he doesn't worry about income or wealth inequality, believing the overall value creation by AI will benefit humanity. Looking back, the Chase of 2018 would find the scale and realization of Crusoe's ambitious vision "unbelievable," particularly the profound impact of AI and the sheer number of people (nearly 2,000) who have invested their careers in the company.
摘要
Chase Lochmiller is the Co-founder and CEO of Crusoe. Crusoe builds and powers the data centres that companies use to train and run AI. It has raised approximately $6.4 billion in equity, including its latest $3.9 billion Series F at a $30.9 billion valuation. Its backers include NVIDIA, Founders Fund, Gavin Baker's Atreides Management, Mubadala Capital and Valor Equity Partners. AGENDA: 04:40 What Does Climbing Everest Teach You About Building a Company? 17:40 What's Really Stopping Us From Building Enough AI Data Centres? 25:50 Are Data Centres Really Driving Up Your Energy Bills? 28:05 Will Half of Planned AI Data Centres Never Get Built? 32:10 How Quickly Can a GPU Pay for Itself? 38:35 Will Your GPUs Become Obsolete Before You've Paid Them Off? 44:20 What Does It Take to Produce the Cheapest Intelligence? 49:50 Will Companies Building Their Own Models Eat Into OpenAI's Business? 51:55 Can You Build a $30B Company and Still Be a Great Dad?
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