Did NOT Expect This, Tesla Actually Did It ⚡️

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以下是该播客节目的内容摘要的中文翻译: 主持人迪伦·卢米斯(Dylan Loomis)将其称为“第1.5部分”,他首先展示了他为Grok的特斯拉导航添加的“靠边停车功能”。在演示中,Grok成功处理了在埃尔坎波大道(前方38英尺)“前方右转”的命令,然后是“取消该转弯”和在贝尔广场(前方112英尺)“前方左转”的命令,最后是“取消该转弯”。迪伦澄清说,这不是特斯拉Version 15的原生预览,而是斯宾塞(Spencer)提供的一个售后解决方案,可能利用特斯拉的导航API和一个Grok连接器将新的GPS定位点发送到汽车,而不是直接的驾驶指令。他指出该设置“笨拙”,但认为这是Version 15的一个“相当酷的预览”,特别是因为埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)曾于6月17日提到此功能将在“大约三个月左右”推出,而现在距离该帖子发布已经大约三个月零12天了。 接着,迪伦提供了特斯拉Semi卡车的最新消息。他引用了Catalyst Mobility一位发言人的话,称ZetScale订单(“美国历史上最大的电动半挂卡车订单”)中的全部2,500辆卡车将在18个月内由特斯拉交付。迪伦认为,这意味着大部分(如果不是全部)都将是特斯拉Semi卡车,这与特斯拉自己关于成为2,500辆半挂卡车的“主要OEM”的帖子相符。加上这些和其他新订单,特斯拉Semi追踪器现在显示,过去18个月内有4,397辆已确认的承诺订单,其中包括HMD(一家在芝加哥设立充电桩的卡车运输公司)新增的50辆订单。迪伦强调了Semi卡车的技术优势,如粉末涂层、定制制造机器,以及丹·普里斯特利(Dan Priestley)提到的全面内部生产。他还提到了与Cyber Cab共享的“Mega Manifold”热泵,以及普里斯特利认为Semi卡车卓越的经济效益将推动其快速市场渗透的观点。FSD预计明年将应用于Semi卡车,迪伦认为这将“彻底改变局面”,他总结说,所有数据都表明特斯拉Semi卡车是一款“全垒打产品”。 十月是网络安全月,迪伦讨论了冒充诈骗日益增长的威胁,据FTC称,去年美国因此损失了35亿美元,并预测随着人工智能的发展,这个数字还会上升。他分享了三个免费提示:每周重启手机、验证电子邮件域名,以及不要接听未知电话/短信。作为一个额外提示,他建议每月在谷歌上搜索自己的名字。这引出了Delete Me的赞助环节,该服务可以从数据经纪网站上删除个人信息。迪伦分享了他的个人经历,指出Delete Me在他最近的报告中发现他的信息出现在54个网站上,而4月份只有6个,这证明了数据会重新出现。他提到Delete Me在一个季度内为他审查了7,200条记录并提交了64次删除请求,并且允许以折扣价添加家庭成员(配偶、父母、16岁以上子女)。他提供了使用代码Electrified在JoinDeleteMe.com/Electrified享受20%折扣的优惠。 迪伦随后报道了特斯拉的一份新的8K文件,显示特斯拉已获得高达300亿美元(可能达到340亿美元)的银行信贷额度选项。这并非特斯拉已经借款,而是获得了这样做的能力,正如第二季度电话会议后所计划的那样。此举是由于未来几年预计将出现负自由现金流和250亿美元或更多的资本支出,而非急需现金。他指出,时机恰好,因为惠誉(Fitch)最近给予特斯拉较低的投资级别评级(BBB),并提到了预期的资本支出。8K文件还显示特斯拉关闭了一项较旧的50亿美元信贷额度,可能条件较差。迪伦表示,这一策略有助于避免股东稀释,特斯拉目前拥有超过400亿美元现金,外加高达340亿美元的新信贷额度。 谈到公司治理,迪伦提到了暗示特斯拉-SpaceX合并的SEC文件截图。他澄清说,该文件本身并非合并的证据,尽管他个人认为合并正在计划中。相反,它涉及SEC就特斯拉新的“发行人自愿散户投票计划”(IVRVP)发出的一封“不采取行动函”。特斯拉总法律顾问布伦丹·厄哈特(Brendan Earhart)和Robinhood首席执行官弗拉德(Vlad)证实,该计划旨在简化散户投资者的投票流程。IVRVP允许散户股东选择加入以设定投票标准,例如在未来大多数投票中自动遵循董事会的建议。尽管股东仍可查阅委托投票材料并可覆盖设置,但像假设的合并这样的特殊议题仍需单独投票。迪伦认为,考虑到预期的SpaceX合并投票,这个时机“很有趣”,因为这将使散户股东更容易与董事会的意愿保持一致进行投票,尤其是有时弃权票可能被计为反对票。他证实,虽然已获批准,但实际注册尚未开放。 关于FSD,特斯拉宣布FSD在克罗地亚获得有监督的批准,使欧洲国家总数达到八个。这些国家占欧盟人口的12.7%,而要通过最终投票(定于12月),需要达到65%。迪伦计划推出一个交互式网站来追踪这一进展。特斯拉的FSD里程计数器目前已超过150亿英里,其中城市里程超过58亿英里。特斯拉每月增加约10亿英里,仅2026年就增加了78亿英里——这比2020年至2025年的总和还要多。迪伦指出,虽然FSD里程曾与无监督进展挂钩,但其目前的关联性似乎更多地转向了Version 15。 最后,迪伦强调了理解SpaceX的重要性,因为特斯拉可能与其合并。他详细介绍了埃隆·马斯克关于SpaceX人工智能计算能力建设的声明,特别是“Colossus 1”和“Colossus 2”,以及计划在12月底前额外增加660,000个GB300,这可能有效使SpaceX人工智能在第四季度的计算能力翻倍,将芯片类型转换为H100等效算力。他引用了Anthropic的IPO招股说明书,披露了与SpaceX人工智能达成的新协议,到2029年将在基于英伟达的计算方面支出高达845亿美元,几乎是他们此前450亿美元协议的两倍。迪伦强调,SpaceX人工智能正在以比任何人都快的速度上线计算能力,甚至比地球上的更快,并将主导轨道计算能力。他认为,将智能部署到实体产品中的公司将胜出,这使得特斯拉和SpaceX处于独特的地位。他展示了一张信息图表,表明SpaceX可能在三个月内将H100等效算力从210万提高到440万。引用ARK的布雷特(Brett)的预测,SpaceX到2030年将达到“略低于33吉瓦”,埃隆回应道:“如果我们只有那么低,我会非常失望”,预计SpaceX到年底将达到约2吉瓦。迪伦总结道,他同意Anthropic的观点,即计算能力是人工智能发展的关键制约因素。白宫已正式签署一份文件,将“人工智能”更名为“超级智能”(SI),迪伦对此“半开玩笑地”提了一下。埃隆·马斯克及其他领导人签署了一份关于SI安全的联合声明,同意进行联合监测和设立专门委员会。 当天市场表现显示,特斯拉股票收盘价为352.84美元,下跌1.29%;SpaceX收盘价为149.24美元,上涨2.59%;而NDX上涨0.21%。

Here's a summary of the podcast episode: Host Dylan Loomis, in what he calls "part 1.5," started by showcasing a "pullover functionality" he added to Grok for Tesla navigation. In a demo, Grok successfully processed commands to "turn right up ahead" at El Campo Avenue (38 feet ahead), then "cancel that turn" and "turn left up ahead" at Bell Place (112 feet ahead), and finally "cancel that turn." Dylan clarified this is not a native preview of Tesla's Version 15 but an aftermarket solution by Spencer, likely using Tesla's navigation API and a Grok connector to send new GPS pins to the car, rather than direct driving instructions. He noted the setup is "clunky" but deemed it a "pretty cool preview" for Version 15, especially since Elon Musk had mentioned this functionality would arrive "in about three months or so" on June 17th, placing the current date about three months and 12 days past that post. Next, Dylan provided updates on the Tesla Semi. He revealed a quote from a Catalyst Mobility spokeswoman stating that all 2,500 trucks from the ZetScale order (the "largest electric semi order in US history") will be delivered by Tesla within 18 months. Dylan believes this implies most, if not all, will be Tesla Semis, aligning with Tesla's own post about being the "primary OEM" for 2,500 semis. With this and other new orders, the Tesla Semi tracker now shows 4,397 verified commitments in the last 18 months, including a new order for 50 from HMD, a trucking company setting up chargers in Chicago. Dylan highlighted the Semi's technical advantages like powder coating, custom manufacturing machines, and the comprehensive in-house production cited by Dan Priestley. He also noted the shared "Mega Manifold" heat pump with the Cyber Cab and Priestley's opinion that the Semi's superior economics will drive rapid market penetration. FSD is expected to come to the Semi next year, which Dylan believes "will blow the game wide open," concluding that all data points suggest the Tesla Semi is a "home run product." October is Cyber Security Month, and Dylan discussed the increasing threat of imposter scams, with $3.5 billion lost in the US last year according to the FTC, predicting this number will rise with AI. He shared three free tips: reboot cell phones weekly, verify email domain names, and stop answering unknown calls/texts. As a bonus, he recommended Googling oneself monthly. This led to the sponsor segment for Delete Me, a service that removes personal information from data broker sites. Dylan shared his personal experience, noting Delete Me found his information on 54 sites in his most recent report, up from six in April, proving data repopulation. He mentioned Delete Me reviewed 7,200 records and submitted 64 removals in one quarter for him, and allows adding family members (spouse, parents, kids 16+) at a discount. He offered a 20% discount with code Electrified at JoinDeleteMe.com/Electrified. Dylan then reported on a new Tesla 8K filing, revealing Tesla has secured the option to access bank credit up to $30 billion, potentially $34 billion. This is not Tesla borrowing money yet, but securing the ability to, as planned after the Q2 call. This move is due to anticipated negative free cash flow and CapEx spend of $25 billion or more for the next few years, not desperation for cash. He noted the timing is opportune as Fitch recently gave Tesla a lower-tier investment grade rating (BBB), citing the expected CapEx. The 8K also showed Tesla closed an older $5 billion credit facility, likely on worse terms. Dylan suggested this strategy helps avoid shareholder dilution, and Tesla now has over $40 billion in cash plus up to $34 billion in new credit facilities. Moving to corporate governance, Dylan addressed screenshots implying a Tesla-SpaceX merger from an SEC document. He clarified the document itself isn't merger proof, though he personally believes a merger is planned. Instead, it concerns a "no action letter" from the SEC for Tesla's new "issuer voluntary retail voting program" (IVRVP). Tesla's general counsel, Brendan Earhart, and Robinhood CEO Vlad, confirmed this program aims to simplify voting for retail investors. The IVRVP allows retail shareholders to opt-in to set voting standards, such as automatically following board recommendations, for most future votes. While shareholders retain access to proxy materials and can override settings, special topics like a hypothetical merger would still require an individual vote. Dylan found the timing "interesting" given an anticipated SpaceX merger vote, as it would make it easier for retail shareholders to vote in alignment with the board, especially since abstentions can sometimes count as no votes. He confirmed that while permission was granted, actual enrollment is not yet available. On FSD, Tesla announced supervised FSD approval in Croatia, bringing the total to eight European countries. These countries represent 12.7% of the EU population, with 65% needed to pass an eventual vote (set for December). Dylan plans to launch an interactive website to track this progress. Tesla's FSD counter now exceeds 15 billion miles driven, with over 5.8 billion city miles. Tesla is adding about 1 billion miles monthly, with 7.8 billion miles added in 2026 alone—more than 2020 through 2025 combined. Dylan noted that while FSD mileage was once tied to unsupervised progress, its current relevance seems to have shifted more towards Version 15. Finally, Dylan stressed the importance of understanding SpaceX due to potential Tesla merger. He detailed Elon Musk's statements on SpaceX AI's compute buildout, specifically "Colossus 1" and "Colossus 2," and plans for an additional 660,000 GB300s by late December, which could effectively double SpaceX AI's compute capacity in Q4, converting chip types into H100 equivalents. He cited Anthropic's IPO prospectus, revealing new deals with SpaceX AI for up to $84.5 billion in Nvidia-based compute spending through 2029, nearly doubling their previous $45 billion deal. Dylan emphasized that SpaceX AI is bringing compute online faster than anyone, even terrestrially, and will dominate orbital compute. He believes companies deploying intelligence with physical products will win, positioning Tesla and SpaceX uniquely. He showed an infographic suggesting SpaceX could go from 2.1 million to 4.4 million H100 equivalents in three months. Quoting Brett from ARK, who projected SpaceX at "just shy of 33 gigawatts by 2030," Elon responded, "if we are that low, I would be quite disappointed," with SpaceX expected around 2 gigawatts by year-end. Dylan concluded, agreeing with Anthropic, that compute power is the key constraint on AI development. The White House has officially signed a document renaming "artificial intelligence" to "super intelligence" (SI), which Dylan noted with a "partially tongue-in-cheek" comment. Elon Musk and other leaders signed a joint declaration on SI safety, agreeing to joint monitoring and special committees. Market performance for the day showed Tesla stock closing at $352.84, down 1.29%, and SpaceX at $149.24, up 2.59%, while the NDX was up 0.21%.

摘要

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