Markets Weekly September 26, 2026

9月26日，《市场周刊》（Markets Weekly）开篇讨论了“市场疯狂的一周”，其主导因素是飙升的债券收益率。10年期和30年期收益率被形容为“抛物线上升”，每日涨至数十年来的高点，其中30年期TIPS（通胀保值债券）实际收益率约为3.2%。发言人指出，其他资产类别的反应“微弱”令人惊讶：标普500指数“不以为然”，企业债券息差仍“非常非常窄”，新兴市场“似乎不以为意”，甚至黄金也未受影响。 发言人认为，收益率飙升的主要原因是市场对美联储政策的预期不断演变。SOFR（担保隔夜融资利率）期货显示，市场目前正在消化额外加息25个基点以及利率“更高更久”的走势。这是一个快速转变，因为就在几周前，沃勒（Waller）理事还被认为是鸽派。美联储的双重使命，尤其是通胀目标，是关键。尽管就业数据依然强劲，但能源价格上涨（柴油价格处于“历史高点”）加剧了市场对通胀的担忧，导致市场预期美联储将更加鹰派，可能将利率提高到5%并维持在该水平。发言人认为，降息将需要通胀大幅下降（可能来自股市走弱）或中东局势得到解决以降低能源价格。 发言人随后批评了几个普遍流传的、用于解释收益率上升的“糟糕说法”。 1. **“美联储跟随两年期收益率”**：被驳斥为“彻头彻尾的错误”。美联储官员没有这样说过，经验证据表明，10年期收益率的显著波动发生在“美联储会议前后”，这表明因果关系是从美联储行动流向市场反应，而不是反过来。 2. **“受赤字驱动”**：不正确，因为收益率在全球范围内飙升，即使是在财政负责的德国也是如此。真正的全球性因素是“通胀、能源冲击”，促使全球进入加息周期。 3. **“美国经济强劲增长”**：也不正确。尽管这是一个全球现象，但欧洲经济增长并未飙升。美国上季度GDP增长1.5%，第一季度增长2%，这只是“还好”，而非“飙升”。强劲的“对私人国内消费者的最终销售”（约4%）主要反映了对人工智能相关外国进口的需求，这更多地直接惠及了台湾（GDP增长11%）等国家，而非广泛的美国经济增长。 4. **“名义GDP增长”**：这是一种“婴儿潮一代”的思维模式，但历史图表显示两者之间没有一致的关系，数十年来收益率有时高于名义GDP，有时低于名义GDP。 5. **“人工智能发行量激增挤出美国国债”**：这一说法被分析（例如《金融时报》（Financial Times）托比（Toby）的分析）所驳斥，分析表明其数量并不显著。基于价格的衡量指标，例如掉期息差，如果在供应压倒需求时（如解放日期间所见）会变得非常负，现在没有显示出挤出效应的迹象。 发言人总结道，“超级超级简单”的解释是负面能源冲击导致全球央行因通胀目标而加息。 最后，播客转向了“随机政治发展”。特朗普（Trump）总统在白宫热情接待了“习叔叔”（President Xi，习主席），包括赞扬他和他的夫人，并计划举行进一步会谈，这表明特朗普重视与中国的合作关系，将“脱钩”言论斥为“无稽之谈”。尽管中国支持美国在霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）问题上的立场，但它也支持伊朗。据报道，伊朗结束战争的提议被总统驳回。这一点尤其值得关注，因为总统正面临中期选举，最近的民调数据显示其支持率不断下降，其所在政党的国会竞选“濒临崩溃”，预示着可能出现“蓝色巨浪”，民主党可能同时赢得众议院和参议院。这种结果可能导致对总统及其家人的调查，并可能在有年迈大法官辞职时，使其确认最高法院大法官的能力复杂化。发言人认为，鉴于利害关系重大，总统目前的立场可能是一种谈判姿态。市场被描述为“习惯于忽略噪音并逢低买入”，保持韧性，如果霍尔木兹海峡出现积极进展，有可能出现快速反弹（例如纳斯达克指数上涨10%）。然而，如果问题得不到解决，民主党掌控众议院和参议院可能导致“混乱”的结果，例如增税，从而对经济和市场产生负面影响。

On September 26th, Markets Weekly opened by addressing the "crazy week in markets," dominated by surging bond yields. The 10-year and 30-year yields are described as "going parabolic," rising daily to multi-decade highs, with 30-year TIPS real yields around 3.2%. The speaker noted surprise at the "muted" reaction from other asset classes: the S&P 500 "shrugged its shoulders," corporate bond spreads remain "very, very narrow," emerging markets "don't seem to care," and even gold appears unaffected. The primary reason for the yield surge, according to the speaker, is the market's evolving expectation of Fed policy. SOFR futures indicate the market is now pricing in an additional 25 basis point hike and a "higher for longer" trajectory for interest rates. This marks a rapid shift, as just weeks prior, Governor Waller was perceived as dovish. The Fed's dual mandate, especially the inflation target, is key. While employment data remains robust, rising energy prices, with diesel at "all-time highs," have increased market concern about inflation, leading to expectations of a more hawkish Fed, potentially hiking rates to 5% and holding them there. Rate cuts, the speaker suggests, would require either a significant drop in inflation (perhaps from a weaker equity market) or a resolution in the Middle East to lower energy prices. The speaker then critiqued several "bad stories" commonly circulated to explain rising yields. 1. **"Fed follows the two-year yield":** Dismissed as "straight-up wrong." Fed officials don't state this, and empirical evidence shows that significant movements in the 10-year yield occur "around Fed meetings," indicating causality flows from Fed actions to market reactions, not vice-versa. 2. **"Driven by the deficit":** Incorrect because yields are surging globally, even in fiscally responsible Germany. The true global factor is an "inflation, energy shock" prompting a worldwide rate-hiking cycle. 3. **"Strong U.S. growth":** Also incorrect. While a global phenomenon, European growth isn't surging. U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% last quarter and 2% in the first quarter is "okay," not "surging." The strong "final sales to private domestic consumers" (around 4%) primarily reflects demand for AI-related foreign imports, benefiting countries like Taiwan (11% GDP growth) more directly than broad U.S. growth. 4. **"Nominal GDP growth":** A "boomer" mental model, but historical charts show no consistent relationship, with yields sometimes higher, sometimes lower than nominal GDP for decades. 5. **"Surge in AI issuance crowding out Treasuries":** Disputed by analysis (e.g., Financial Times by Toby) suggesting the quantity isn't significant. Price-based measures like swap spreads, which would turn very negative if supply overwhelmed demand (as seen during Liberation Day), show no sign of crowding out now. The speaker concludes that the "super, super simple" explanation is a negative energy shock causing central banks to hike rates globally due to inflation targeting. Finally, the podcast turned to "random political developments." President Trump's warm reception of "Uncle Xi" (President Xi) at the White House, including comments praising him and his wife, and plans for further meetings, suggests Trump values a working relationship with China, dismissing "uncoupling" talk as "nonsense." While China supports the U.S. position on the Strait of Hormuz, it also supports Iran. An Iranian proposal to end the war was reportedly rejected by the president. This is particularly notable as the president faces midterms, with recent polling data showing sinking approval ratings and congressional races "imploding" for his party, indicating a potential "big blue wave" where Democrats could take both the House and Senate. Such an outcome could lead to investigations into the president and his family, and complicate his ability to confirm Supreme Court justices, should any elderly justices step down. The speaker believes the president's current stance might be a negotiating posture, given the high stakes. The market, described as "conditioned to fade the noise and buy the dip," remains resilient, with potential for quick rallies (e.g., Nasdaq up 10%) if positive developments occur in the Strait of Hormuz. However, without a resolution, a Democratic House and Senate could lead to "messy" outcomes like tax increases, impacting the economy and markets negatively.