TIVP098 (Video): Alphabet (GOOGL): The Megacap That Still Might Be Underrated w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O’Malley
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十八个月前，Alphabet 被认为是 MAG-7 中最便宜的股票，市盈率约为 17 倍，当时市场普遍担心 AI 会导致“搜索的消亡”。从那时起，该股股价已大致翻倍，对搜索业务的威胁也大体消散，AI 现在被视为搜索量和变现的驱动力。然而，该公司在其业务和财务战略方面经历了重大变化。
最初的论点强调了 Alphabet 旗下世界级的业务组合，例如搜索、YouTube（年收入 360 亿美元）、Google Cloud 和 Android，以及一个包括 Waymo 在内的价值 100 亿美元的风险投资组合。市场曾不公平地低估了它，使得能够以低于标普 500 指数的价格投资这家巨头。如今，Alphabet 的市盈率仍然是 17 倍，但担忧已从 AI 竞争转移到围绕大规模 AI 投资回报的不确定性。
搜索业务已被证明具有韧性。与担忧相反，AI 概览和 AI 模式将点击量导向网站，谷歌每周发送数十亿次点击。谷歌已有效地在其 AI 功能中整合了广告。生成 AI 响应的成本也有所下降。监管审查，尤其是在 Google Chrome 及其与苹果的交易方面，已变得不那么尖锐。尽管苹果每年仍从 Alphabet 获得约 200 亿美元的默认搜索地位费用，但该安排在某些限制下得到了维持，提供了稳定性。苹果现在每年还向谷歌支付约 10 亿美元，以获取用于 Siri 的 Gemini 技术，进一步加深了两家公司的联系。
Google Cloud 已成为主要的增长引擎，最近实现了营业利润转正。去年，其收入达到 580 亿美元，营业利润率为 24%，显示出爆炸性增长（2026 年第一季度和第二季度同比分别增长 63% 和 82%），上季度实现了近 36% 的利润率，超出了最初的计划。其积压订单（或称剩余履约义务）已飙升至 5000 亿美元以上，在 12 个月内增长了五倍，Alphabet 预计未来两年云收入将增长 50%。然而，这一积压订单包括与 Anthropic 签订的为期五年、价值 2000 亿美元的大额协议，引发了对客户集中度的担忧。谷歌自主设计的张量处理单元（TPU）相对于 NVIDIA 芯片具有成本优势。
谷歌订阅业务也表现强劲，2026 年上半年从 Google One 和 YouTube Premium 等服务中获得了超过 250 亿美元的收入。YouTube，现在是全球最大的流媒体服务，受益于一个利用内容创作者的精益模式。Waymo 等“其他押注”业务的估值有所增加，Waymo 在今年 2 月的最新一轮融资中估值接近 1300 亿美元，2025 年完成了 5000 万次乘车服务。Alphabet 在 SpaceX 持有的 5% 股权目前估值为 950 亿美元。
最显著的变化是 Alphabet 的资本配置。该公司计划今年在数据中心上投入约 2000 亿美元。这导致其投资资本回报率下降，因为 Alphabet 正在从一家纯粹的数字软件公司转型为一家拥有大量物理基础设施的公司。有人对计算机芯片的折旧核算以及资产的真实经济成本提出了担忧。未来承诺的表外负债超过 8000 亿美元。为了为此提供资金，Alphabet 在 2026 年上半年完全停止了股票回购，在 2026 年第二季度首次出现了负自由现金流，发行了 850 亿美元的股权（这是其自 IPO 以来的首次大规模股权融资），并通过全球债券市场将其长期债务增加到 980 亿美元（是 2024 财年水平的九倍）。尽管净现金仍有 2420 亿美元，但这正在迅速消耗。
风险包括：由于私募股权估值上升带来的非现金收益（例如 2026 年第二季度利润中的 990 亿美元）可能导致利润虚报；考虑到未来的供应建设，计算能力价格上涨的持久性；未来几年折旧增加可能导致的利润率压缩；以及该股不再“不受分析师青睐”。尽管有这些变化，主持人承认 Alphabet 的持续实力，将其视为一个长期复合增长者，尽管他们指出，与 18 个月前相比，他们对其目前的低估程度缺乏信心。
Eighteen months ago, Alphabet was pitched as the cheapest of the MAG-7, trading at around 17 times earnings, amidst market fears of "the death of Search" due to AI. Since then, the stock has roughly doubled, and the threat to Search largely dissipated, with AI now seen as a driver of search volume and monetization. However, the company has undergone significant changes in its business and financial strategy.
The initial thesis highlighted Alphabet's collection of world-class businesses like Search, YouTube ($36 billion annual revenue), Google Cloud, and Android, alongside a $10 billion venture portfolio including Waymo. The market had unfairly discounted it, allowing investment in a titan at a discount to the S&P 500. Today, Alphabet still trades at 17 times earnings, but concerns have shifted from AI competition to the uncertainty surrounding returns on massive AI investments.
Search has proven resilient. Contrary to fears, AI overviews and AI mode drive clicks to websites, with Google sending billions of clicks weekly. Google has effectively integrated ads within its AI features. The cost of generating AI responses has also decreased. Regulatory scrutiny, particularly regarding Google Chrome and its deal with Apple, has become less acute. While Apple still receives about $20 billion annually from Alphabet for default search status, the arrangement was upheld with some restrictions, providing stability. Apple is also now paying Google approximately $1 billion annually for access to Gemini technology for Siri, further intertwining the companies.
Google Cloud has emerged as a major growth engine, recently inflecting to positive operating income. With $58 billion in revenue last year at a 24% operating profit margin, it has shown explosive growth (63% and 82% year-over-year in Q1 and Q2 of 2026, respectively) and achieved nearly 36% margins last quarter, outpacing original schedules. Its backlog, or remaining performance obligations, has surged to over $500 billion, a five-fold increase in 12 months, with Alphabet projecting 50% cloud revenue growth over the next two years. However, this backlog includes a substantial five-year, $200 billion deal with Anthropic, raising concerns about customer concentration. Google's self-designed Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) offer a cost advantage over NVIDIA chips.
The Google subscription segment is also strong, generating over $25 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026 from services like Google One and YouTube Premium. YouTube, now the world's largest streaming service, benefits from a lean model leveraging content creators. "Other Bets" like Waymo have seen valuations increase, with Waymo valued at nearly $130 billion in its latest funding round in February of this year, having completed 50 million rides in 2025. Alphabet's 5% stake in SpaceX is now valued at $95 billion.
The most dramatic shift is Alphabet's capital allocation. The company plans to spend around $200 billion on data centers this year. This has led to a decline in its return on invested capital, as Alphabet transitions from a purely digital software company to one with substantial physical infrastructure. Concerns were raised about depreciation accounting for computer chips and the true economic cost of assets. Off-balance sheet liabilities for future commitments exceed $800 billion. To fund this, Alphabet has entirely stopped stock buybacks in the first half of 2026, posted its first negative free cash flow quarter in Q2 2026, issued $85 billion in equity (its first major equity raise since IPO), and increased long-term debt to $98 billion (nine times fiscal 2024 levels) through global bond markets. While still net cash with $242 billion, this is rapidly depleting.
Risks include potential overstatement of profits due to non-cash gains from marking up private equity stakes (e.g., $99 billion of Q2 2026 profits), the durability of price rises for compute power given future supply build-out, potential margin compression from increased depreciation in future years, and the stock no longer being "out of favor" with analysts. Despite these changes, the hosts acknowledge Alphabet's continued strength, viewing it as a long-term compounder, though they note less conviction about its current undervaluation compared to 18 months prior.
摘要
In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley revisit Alphabet nearly two years after Shawn's original pitch, tracing how the company transformed from a cash-rich, buyback-driven business into an aggressive spender on AI infrastructure. They walk through what changed across Search, YouTube, Cloud, and Waymo, and unpack why the market's fears around AI disrupting Google were largely unfounded. Along the way, they dig into how Alphabet is funding its buildout, what that means for shareholders, and which questions will determine whether this evolved version of the business is actually better.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:00:41) Why Shawn’s original Alphabet thesis needed a revisit
(00:06:55) How the AI-kills-search narrative played out in reality
(00:30:28) Why Google Cloud’s margins surprised skeptical investors
(00:43:48) How Waymo went from afterthought to major asset
(00:49:44) How Alphabet’s AI spending flows through its earnings
(01:03:12) What Berkshire Hathaway’s growing stake signals about the company
(01:03:47) Why Alphabet paused buybacks and started raising equity
(01:07:15) Which unresolved questions will define Alphabet’s next few years
(01:13:13) Whether Kyle & Shawn will add to their Alphabet in the Intrinsic Value Portfolio
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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