September 2026 FOMC Debrief

约瑟夫·王（Joseph Wang），美联储前高级交易员兼联邦储备银行评论员，与杰克（Jack）一同讨论了近期由凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）主持的美联储会议，该会议包括了沃什任期内的首次加息。王对会议结果表示满意，他此前在沃什的杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）讲话后准确预测了此次加息。他强调了沃什讲话中的两个关键指标：沃什认为金融状况不具限制性，以及对“迅速”回到2%通胀目标的新强调，这预示着紧迫性。 王表示，此次加息并非“一次性”事件，而是开启了一个新的加息周期。这一点得到了点阵图（dot plot）的支持，该图的中位数预测显示今年还将有一次加息，以及沃什的沟通表述。沃什特别指出，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）没有发现任何认为金融状况具有限制性的人，他故意将此次加息表述为“撤销一部分宽松措施”，暗示当前状况仍属宽松。王将此解读为一个明确信号，预示着至少还需要两次加息才能达到限制性立场。 市场反应鹰派，两年期收益率飙升12个基点，收益率曲线显著趋平，美元走强，以及小盘股、标普（S&P）和半导体等风险资产大幅抛售。王指出，这可能是2022年加息周期的缩小版重演。 王将沃什的鹰派立场归因于几个因素：强劲的经济增长，就业使命的达成（失业率为4.1%），通胀下降不够迅速的不利趋势，以及对地缘政治发展的明确担忧，尤其是中东冲突导致的能源价格飙升。王认为，沃什正试图预先阻止潜在的第二轮通胀效应。 在讨论点阵图时，王认为2028年联邦基金利率中位数预测从3.4%上升到3.9%特别重要，同时长期预测也略微上调至3.2%。这预示着“更长时间维持高利率”的情景，以及对中性利率高于此前预期的根本性重新评估。 关于供应冲击，王解释了央行传统的“穿透”或“忽视”这些冲击的观点，但他指出，持续、连续的冲击（疫情、俄罗斯-乌克兰、关税、中东）使这种做法变得危险，可能导致通胀失控。这解释了美联储目前无法忽视这些冲击的原因。 王重申了他长期以来对长期债券的偏好，认为它是对感知到的“巨大股市泡沫”、潜在的未来降息或人工智能革命导致的通缩的一种对冲。他在会后对长期债券更有信心，因为沃什展现了对控制通胀的承诺。尽管长期债券（TLT）最初有所上涨，但随后回落，反映出市场对鹰派信号的复杂消化。 关于沟通，王观察到沃什不断变化的风格：简短的声明，一场短暂的30分钟新闻发布会，以及有选择地回答问题。他推测点阵图本身未来可能会逐步淘汰，并提到了沃什的沟通工作组。缺乏关于资产负债表的问题表明当前准备金管理运作顺畅。 最后，王谈到了国债回购，这是一项他一直追踪的政策，并指出其影响收益率的潜力。尽管财政部官员贝桑特（Besant）最初的言论制造了对“火箭筒式”干预的预期，但实际操作（在最高60亿美元中仅购买了45亿至51亿美元）令市场失望。财政部旨在通过只购买非流动性证券来改善流动性的严格标准，阻碍了他们像市场所希望的那样大幅压低收益率。王还将股市描述为一个“巨大泡沫”，理由是过度杠杆和资产将永远上涨的根深蒂固的信念。

Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Fed and commentator on the Federal Reserve, joined Jack to discuss the recent Fed meeting, chaired by Kevin Warsh, which included the first rate hike of Warsh's tenure. Wang expressed satisfaction with the outcome, having accurately predicted the hike after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. He highlighted two key indicators from the speech: Warsh's belief that financial conditions were not restrictive and a new emphasis on the "speed" of returning to the 2% inflation target, signaling urgency. The hike, according to Wang, is not a "one and done" event, initiating a new hiking cycle. This is supported by the dot plot, which median forecasts one more hike this year, and Warsh's communication. Warsh specifically noted that the FOMC found no one who believed financial conditions were restrictive, and he deliberately phrased the hike as "removing a dosage of accommodation," implying that conditions remain accommodative. Wang interprets this as a clear signal for at least two more hikes to reach a restrictive stance. The market reacted hawkishly, with the two-year yield surging 12 basis points, a significant flattening of the yield curve, a dollar rally, and a sharp sell-off in risk assets like small caps, the S&P, and semiconductors. Wang noted this could be a smaller-scale repeat of the 2022 hiking cycle. Wang attributed Warsh's hawkishness to several factors: robust economic growth, meeting the employment mandate (with unemployment at 4.1%), an unfavorable trend in inflation not declining quickly enough, and explicit concerns about geopolitical developments, particularly the surging energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. Warsh, Wang suggested, is trying to preempt potential second-round inflation effects. Discussing the dot plot, Wang found the median 2028 federal funds rate projection increasing from 3.4% to 3.9% particularly significant, along with a slight bump in the longer-run projection to 3.2%. This signals a "higher for longer" scenario and a fundamental reassessment that the neutral rate is higher than previously thought. On the topic of supply shocks, Wang explained the traditional central bank view of "looking through" them, but noted that continuous, successive shocks (pandemic, Russia-Ukraine, tariffs, Middle East) make this approach dangerous, risking unchecked inflation. This explains the Fed's current inability to ignore these shocks. Wang reiterated his long-standing preference for the long bond, viewing it as a hedge against a perceived "tremendous equity bubble" and potential future rate cuts, or deflation from an AI revolution. He felt more confident in the long bond post-meeting, as Warsh demonstrated commitment to inflation control. While the long bond (TLT) saw initial gains, it pulled back, reflecting the market's complex digestion of the hawkish signals. Regarding communication, Wang observed Warsh's evolving style: terse statements, a brief 30-minute press conference, and selective answering of questions. He speculated that the dot plot itself might be phased out in the future, citing Warsh's communications task force. The absence of balance sheet questions indicated current smooth functioning of reserve management. Finally, Wang touched on Treasury buybacks, a policy he has tracked, noting their potential to influence yields. While Treasury official Besant's initial rhetoric created expectations for a "bazooka-like" intervention, the actual operations (only buying 4.5-5.1 billion out of a maximum 6 billion) disappointed the market. The Treasury's strict criteria, aimed at improving liquidity by buying only illiquid securities, prevented them from aggressively pushing down yields as the market had hoped. Wang also described the stock market as a "huge bubble," citing excessive leverage and an ingrained belief that assets will always rise.