Markets Weekly September 12, 2026

9月12日，《市场周刊》播客讨论了“市场中异常有趣的一周”，重点关注了债券市场、贝桑特部长的回购计划以及美联储即将到来的加息。 债券市场经历了“巨大、巨大的抛售”，10年期收益率逼近5%，30年期收益率上升至约5.35%。发言人驳斥了财政赤字或AI超大规模使用者挤出效应等常见解释，将收益率飙升主要归因于“由于地缘政治局势升级导致的油价飙升”。重要的地缘政治进展包括胡塞武装攻占莫尔卡，这可能扰乱通过曼德海峡的航运——霍尔木兹海峡中断后，曼德海峡是沙特石油的关键替代路线。此外，沙特东西向输油管道因来自伊拉克的无人机袭击而暂时关闭。发言人将这些事件描述为“伊朗阵营正在收紧对中东石油的控制”。这种压力导致布伦特原油现货价格飙升，正逼近今年早些时候的“恐慌”水平。雪上加霜的是，美国战略石油储备正在“减少”，据报道中国需求正在增加。油价上涨正在转化为柴油和汽油等精炼产品的价格上涨，预示着全球通胀。各国央行正在做出反应，欧洲央行今年已加息两次并预测还会再加一次。这种全球通胀担忧以及更多加息的前景正在推动全球收益率走高。 其次，贝桑特部长的国债回购计划“令市场失望”。贝桑特此前曾对30年期收益率超过5.3%表示担忧，并宣布扩大国债回购以限制收益率。最初宣布将回购规模从20亿扩大到“至少60亿”，带来了一时的积极反应，30年期收益率随之下降。然而，市场“非常失望”贝桑特没有提供更大的“巴祖卡”（例如100亿），导致收益率再次上升。进一步的失望来自实际执行情况，在提供的60亿中仅回购了51亿。30年期收益率目前交易在5.35%以上，已超过贝桑特的“恐慌点”。发言人建议贝桑特需要改变回购算法，通过“高价”购买债券来推高价格、压低收益率，而不是仅仅扩大操作规模或购买“廉价”债券。 最后，发言人讨论了美联储下周加息以及“真正的加息周期”开始的可能性很高。沃尔什主席在两周前“几乎承诺”了9月加息，市场现在消化了“90%的可能性”。尽管鲍威尔理事和沃勒理事等一些美联储官员表现出鸽派倾向，但沃勒设定了一个明确条件：“火热的核心CPI”。8月CPI数据“高于预期”，达到了沃勒的门槛，使他倾向于加息。发言人驳斥了8月CPI是“一次性”事件的说法，指出持续的“一次性”事件仍会导致通胀。市场已大幅转变了预期，现在预计未来12个月内将有“多达四次加息”，这与一个月前仅预计两次加息相比有了显著变化。这种转变很可能是由于市场认为能源价格通胀可能“持续”。发言人指出，8月CPI公布后，股票和黄金的“奇怪反应”（分别出现跳涨和飙升），但债券市场的反应更易理解：短端和中端出现抛售（收益率上升），而长端略有下降（收益率下降）。这表明长端认为美联储的加息周期将有效控制通胀。发言人警告称，如果美联储下周不加息，将导致“债券市场彻底崩溃”，这预示着其独立性缺失。他们预计将是一次“相当鹰派”的美联储会议，加息周期“比如说，三次加息”是“并非不合理”的，这将有效地抵消去年的降息。发言人还将中东局势与“共和党中期选举机会”联系起来，暗示“伊朗阵营”旨在影响选举，战事可能在选举后立即结束。

On September 12th, the Markets Weekly podcast discussed a "super interesting week in markets," focusing on the bond market, Secretary Besant's buyback program, and the Federal Reserve's impending rate hike. The bond market experienced a "huge, huge sell-off," with the 10-year yield nearing 5% and the 30-year yield rising to about 5.35%. The speaker dismissed common explanations like fiscal deficits or AI hyperscaler crowding out, attributing the surge in yields primarily to "surging oil prices due to escalation on the geopolitical front." Significant geopolitical developments include the Houthis taking Molka, potentially disrupting shipping through the Bab el-Mendeb Strait—a key alternative route for Saudi oil after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the Saudi East-West pipeline was temporarily shut down due to drone attacks from Iraq. The speaker characterized these events as "Team Iran tightening its control over Middle Eastern oil." This pressure has led to a surge in Spot Brent oil prices, which are nearing "panic" levels from earlier in the year. Compounding this, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is "dwindling," and Chinese demand is reportedly increasing. Higher oil prices are translating into higher prices for refined products like diesel and gasoline, signaling global inflation. Central banks are reacting, with the ECB having hiked twice this year and forecasting another. This global inflation concern and the prospect of more rate hikes are driving global yields higher. Secondly, Secretary Besant's Treasury buyback program "disappointed the market." Besant had previously expressed concern about the 30-year yield surpassing 5.3% and announced an expansion of Treasury buybacks to cap yields. The initial announcement of expanding buybacks from 2 billion to "at least 6 billion" provided a temporary positive reaction, with the 30-year yield declining. However, the market was "very disappointed" that Besant didn't offer a larger "bazooka" (e.g., 10 billion), leading yields to rise again. Further disappointment came from the actual execution, where only 5.1 billion was bought out of the 6 billion offered. The 30-year yield now trades above 5.35%, past Besant's "panic point." The speaker suggested that Besant needs to change the buyback algorithm to "overpay" for bonds, thereby driving prices up and yields down, rather than merely expanding the size of the operations or buying "cheap" bonds. Lastly, the speaker discussed the high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week and the start of a "proper hiking cycle." Chair Walsh had "all but promised" a September hike two weeks prior, and the market now prices in a "90% chance." While some Fed officials like Governor Powell and Governor Waller had shown dovish tendencies, Waller had set a clear condition: a "hot core CPI." The August CPI print "was hotter than expected," meeting Waller's threshold and leading him to favor a hike. The speaker dismissed arguments that the August CPI was a "one-off," noting that consistent "one-offs" still lead to inflation. The market has dramatically shifted its expectations, now pricing in "as many as four hikes in the next 12 months," a significant change from two hikes just a month ago. This shift is likely due to the market's belief that energy price inflation could be "persistent." The speaker noted the "weird reaction" of equities and gold (jumping and surging, respectively) after the August CPI, but found the bond market reaction more understandable: the front end and belly sold off (yields rising), while the long end came down slightly (yields falling). This suggests the long end believes the Fed's hiking cycle will effectively control inflation. The speaker warned that if the Fed does not hike next week, it would lead to a "total implosion in the bond market," signaling a lack of independence. They anticipate a "quite hawkish" Fed meeting, with a hiking cycle of "let's say, three hikes" being "not unreasonable," effectively undoing last year's cuts. The speaker also linked the Middle East situation to "Republicans' midterm election chances," suggesting "Team Iran" aims to affect the election, with the war potentially ending immediately afterward.