Everyone Wanted a Cheaper Tesla. Elon Had Other Plans.

在2026年9月7日发布的一期播客中，Dave 讨论了特斯拉的增长轨迹，特别阐述了人们对近期停滞不前和未来前景的担忧。 **过去的增长挑战与焦点转移：** * 特斯拉此前曾设定雄心勃勃的生产目标，每年1000万辆，随后又提升至2000万辆。 * 然而，该公司的重心似乎转向了机器人出租车（robotaxis）和全自动驾驶（Full Self-Driving, FSD），导致人们对大规模汽车增长的讨论看似停滞。 * 这一转变导致营收增长乏力，因为特斯拉传统上依赖汽车销售。 * 机器人出租车网络自去年在奥斯汀首次发布以来增长缓慢，尽管特斯拉能源（Tesla Energy）前景光明，但其营收尚未达到汽车业务的水平。 * 市场预期推出一款更实惠的下一代车型。随后有传言称该车型被取消，但特斯拉予以否认。 * 最终，特斯拉推出了标准版Model Y和Model YL，Dave 认为这“令人失望”，因为许多人期待一款根本性的、大批量、经济实惠的新车型。 * 这种困惑导致一些人猜测特斯拉可能最终会停止向消费者销售汽车，转而“全力投入”商业叫车服务。Dave 认为这些结论是错误的，他坚称特斯拉仍在追求大批量、经济实惠的消费车型，但通过不同的策略。 **埃隆·马斯克的“大胆决定”及其理由：** * Dave 推测，大约在两年到两年半前，包括埃隆·马斯克在内的特斯拉管理层面临一个关键决策： * **选项1：** 全力投入FSD，并开发一款完全为AI驾驶定制的“新范式”汽车（CyberCab），不设人工转向或驾驶选项。由于FSD的就绪程度和监管时间，这具有高度不确定性。 * **选项2：** 开发一款更小、更实惠的Model Y或Model 3（约3万美元），配备方向盘和踏板，FSD作为可选配置，以推动即时销量和营收。Dave 认为大多数CEO会选择这条路。 * Dave 暗示，这两种方案的原型可能都已存在。 * 据报道，埃隆·马斯克做出了“大胆决定”，取消了配备方向盘的小型经济型特斯拉项目，Dave 承认大多数人会认为此举“愚蠢”或“无能”。 * **埃隆的推断理由（根据Dave的说法）：** * 有人工控制的车辆比CyberCab“复杂得多”，增加了“额外负担”，如车速表、踏板、安全气囊和后视镜。 * 对于一家大公司而言，将重心分散到太多“极其重要的新车型项目”上会导致“平庸”和“缺乏紧迫感”。 * 拥有“备用计划”（带方向盘的经济型汽车）会削弱CyberCab和FSD所需的“成败在此一举”的专注度，而埃隆认为这对于公司的生存和创新至关重要。 * Dave 将此与LLM（大型语言模型）人工智能之战相提并论，其中像OpenAI和Anthropic这样专注的初创公司因其激光般的专注度而超越了谷歌等多元化科技巨头。 * 埃隆希望对抗“自满情绪”，确保特斯拉的宗旨仍然是引领人工智能驱动的交通，而不仅仅是制造人工驾驶汽车。 * 这一决定，虽然增加了短期风险（没有备用方案，潜在的股价影响），但旨在创造一种类似于初创公司的“激光般的专注”和“强度”，从而带来更好的产品和更强大的长期未来。 **缓解措施与未来路线图：** * Dave 认为特斯拉试图通过Cybertruck来缓解短期风险，目标是25万辆，但由于价格和充电问题，它面临高成本和低于预期的需求。标准版Model Y和YL也提振了需求，但未能达到高增长预期。 * **Dave 概述了特斯拉未来的路线图，从埃隆的决定开始，共分六个步骤：** 1. **定义交通运输新范式：** 设想一个由AI驱动的汽车的未来，没有驾驶员控制，专为“乘客”设计，强调舒适性和娱乐性，并以此愿景倒推构建。 2. **创建软件和车辆：** 开发比人类驾驶更安全的FSD，并从零开始设计一款没有驾驶员控制的车辆（CyberCab），采用“开箱即用装配”（unboxed assembly），更少的零件和更高效的制造。 3. **验证此方案：** 在地理围栏区域（如奥斯汀）部署机器人出租车网络，控制运营的各个方面，以建立安全案例并测试制造流程。 4. **通过法规：** 获得没有驾驶员控制的汽车销售给消费者所需的必要批准。 5. **销售给消费者：** 将CyberCab作为“惊人的里程碑式转变”推出，这是一款“超级实惠”的汽车，是“这一新范式的首款汽车”。 6. **构建新产品线：** 将这一范式扩展到各种车型（小型、中型、大型、轿车、SUV），所有车型都以乘客为中心并由AI驱动，从而实现特斯拉雄心勃勃的每年1000万至2000万辆的生产目标。 **结论与展望：** * Dave 承认特斯拉的“短期痛苦”（Cybertruck销量、缺乏新的经济型汽车、营收持平、股价困境）是“这一赌注的代价”。 * 然而，他认为特斯拉拥有独特的优势，是市面上唯一一家已大规模推出、且其“下一代”范式车辆（CyberCab）已在德克萨斯州奥斯汀“真实运行”的汽车公司。 * 如果特斯拉成功执行安全、制造和AI软件方面的策略，这一战略将开启“下一个高增长时代”和“各种类型的车辆”，从而带来“特斯拉汽车的新时代”。 * 尽管许多人会怀疑特斯拉的增长，但Dave 相信“特斯拉的一切才刚刚开始”，埃隆的计划“可能会令人惊讶”，事后看来可能会被视为“天才之举”。

In a podcast published on 2026-09-07, Dave discusses Tesla's growth trajectory, specifically addressing concerns about recent stagnation and future prospects. **Past Growth Challenges & Shifting Focus:** * Tesla previously aimed for ambitious production goals of 10 million and then 20 million vehicles per year. * However, the company's focus appeared to shift towards robotaxis and Full Self-Driving (FSD), leading to a perceived halt in talking about high-volume vehicle growth. * This shift resulted in a lack of revenue growth, as Tesla has traditionally relied on vehicle sales. * Robotaxi network growth has been slow since its initial release in Austin last year, and while Tesla Energy shows promise, it's not yet on par with vehicle revenue. * The market anticipated a more affordable, next-generation vehicle. Rumors of its cancellation emerged, followed by Tesla's denial. * Eventually, Tesla introduced the standard Model Y and Model YL, which Dave found "disappointing" as many expected a fundamentally new, high-volume, affordable model. * This confusion led some to speculate that Tesla might eventually stop selling cars to consumers, going "completely in" with commercial ride-hailing services. Dave believes these conclusions are misguided, asserting that Tesla is still pursuing high-volume, affordable consumer vehicles, but through a different strategy. **Elon Musk's "Bold Decision" and its Rationale:** * Dave speculates that around two to two and a half years ago, Tesla management, including Elon Musk, faced a critical decision: * **Option 1:** Go "all in" with FSD and develop a custom "new paradigm" car (CyberCab) built entirely for AI driving, with no human steering or driving options. This was highly uncertain due to FSD readiness and regulatory timing. * **Option 2:** Develop a smaller, more affordable Model Y or Model 3 (~$30,000) with a steering wheel and pedals, offering FSD as an option, to drive immediate volume and revenue. Dave believes most CEOs would choose this path. * Dave suggests prototypes for both likely existed. * Elon Musk reportedly made the "bold decision" to "axe" the program for the smaller, affordable Tesla with a steering wheel, a move Dave acknowledges most would consider "stupid" or "incompetent." * **Elon's perceived reasoning (according to Dave):** * A vehicle with human controls is "drastically more complex" than the CyberCab, adding "extra baggage" like speedometers, pedals, airbags, and mirrors. * For a large company, splitting focus across too many "super important new vehicle programs" leads to "mediocrity" and a lack of "urgency." * Having a "backup plan" (the affordable car with a steering wheel) diminishes the "make it or break it" focus needed for CyberCab and FSD, which Elon saw as crucial for the company's survival and innovation. * Dave draws a parallel to the LLM AI wars, where focused startups like OpenAI and Anthropic outperformed diversified tech giants like Google due to laser-like focus. * Elon wanted to combat "complacency" and ensure Tesla's purpose remained leading AI-driven transport, not just making human-driven cars. * This decision, while increasing short-term risk (no backup, potential stock impact), aimed to create a "laser focus" and "intensity" akin to a startup, leading to better products and a stronger long-term future. **Mitigation Efforts & Roadmap for the Future:** * Dave believes Tesla tried to mitigate short-term risks with the Cybertruck, aiming for 250,000 units, but it faced high costs and lower-than-expected demand due to price and charging issues. The standard Model Y and YL also helped demand but didn't meet high-growth expectations. * **Dave outlines Tesla's future roadmap, starting with Elon's decision, in six steps:** 1. **Define the new paradigm in transport:** Visualize a future with AI-driven cars, no driver controls, designed for the "rider," emphasizing comfort and entertainment, and built backwards from this vision. 2. **Create the software and vehicle:** Develop FSD that is safer than human driving and a vehicle (CyberCab) designed from the ground up without driver controls, utilizing "unboxed assembly," fewer parts, and more efficient manufacturing. 3. **Prove this out:** Implement a robotaxi network in geo-fenced areas (like Austin), controlling all aspects of operation to build a safety case and test manufacturing processes. 4. **Pass regulations:** Obtain necessary approvals for a car without driver controls to be sold to consumers. 5. **Sell to consumers:** Launch the CyberCab as an "amazing monumental shift," an "super affordable" car that is the "first car of this new paradigm." 6. **Build a new lineup:** Scale this paradigm across various vehicle types (small, medium, large, sedans, SUVs), all rider-focused and AI-driven, leading to Tesla's ambitious 10-20 million vehicle per year production goals. **Conclusion & Outlook:** * Dave acknowledges the "short-term pain" for Tesla (Cybertruck volume, lack of new affordable car, flat revenue, stock struggles) as the "cost of this bet." * However, he argues that Tesla is uniquely positioned as the "only car company out there at scale" that has released a "next generation" paradigm vehicle (CyberCab) that is "actually happening in reality" in Austin, Texas. * If Tesla successfully executes on safety, manufacturing, and AI software, this strategy will unlock the "next era of high growth" and a "whole host of various types of vehicles," leading to a "new era of Tesla vehicles." * While many will doubt Tesla's growth, Dave believes "everything is just getting started for Tesla," and Elon's plan "could surprise people," potentially being seen as "genius" in retrospect.