Is He SERIOUS? Wildest Uber, Waymo & Tesla Theory Ever

最近的一次讨论中，优步（Uber）早期投资者杰森（Jason）（在他的免责声明中被称为Jcal）分享了关于自动驾驶（autonomy）领域未来的几点看法、想法和预测，他预测该领域将出现大规模的并购（M&A）活动。 **杰森（Jason）的主要预测：** * **收购优步（Uber）：** 他认为，如果特斯拉（Tesla）、亚马逊（Amazon）或谷歌（Google）以约3000亿美元（约是优步当前市值的两倍）的价格收购优步（Uber），以“赢得自动驾驶汽车的部署”，大家无需感到惊讶。 * **Waymo的策略：** 如果Waymo收购一家汽车公司，无需感到惊讶。 * **为与特斯拉（Tesla）/Waymo竞争而整合：** 他预测DoorDash、优步（Uber）和/或Lyft可能会合并，然后收购一家汽车公司（特别提到了Lucid、Rivian和大众汽车（VW））以及一家像Avada Euro这样的自动驾驶（AV）公司，以便展开竞争。 * **市场增长与估值：** 他表示，在18个月内，优步（Uber）、DoorDash、Lyft、Rivian和Lucid等公司的价值可能增长50%至100%，或者参与并购交易。他认为，亚马逊（Amazon）、谷歌（Google）、Waymo和特斯拉（Tesla）等潜在买家可以以这些公司估值的1%到15%的价格收购这些资产，使他们在自动驾驶领域“直接跃居首位”。 * **假设的“头号玩家”：** 他列举了可能创建“头号玩家”的组合，例如： * 亚马逊（Amazon）+ 优步（Uber）+ Waymo * 特斯拉（Tesla）+ 优步（Uber） * 优步（Uber）+ DoorDash + Euro + Lucid（使其成为“遥遥领先的头号玩家”） * Waymo + DoorDash + 优步（Uber） * **理论依据：** 杰森（Jason）认为，当自动驾驶这样巨大的市场出现时，整合随之而来，他引用个人电脑和互联网时代作为先例。他还透露自己“几乎持有所有这些公司”的股份。 **发言人（史蒂文，Steven）的反驳与认同：** * **特斯拉（Tesla）收购优步（Uber）：** 发言人强烈反对这一想法，他表示“特斯拉（Tesla）以3000亿美元，甚至一包口香糖和一些彩虹糖的价格收购优步（Uber）的可能性是0.0%”，并声称如果这真的发生了，他将“退出内容创作”。 * **Waymo收购一家汽车公司：** 发言人认为这是Waymo试图降低其“绝对令人尴尬的当前硬件成本”的“下一个合乎逻辑的步骤”，但他认为这最终将是“浪费资金”，因为他们无法持续追赶特斯拉（Tesla）的成本。 * **收购Lucid/Rivian/大众汽车（VW）：** 他“强烈怀疑Lucid……正在期盼被收购”，并且不排除Rivian甚至“大众汽车（Volkswagen）这个正在燃烧的垃圾桶火堆”被收购的可能性。 * **绝望而非英明：** 发言人认为，优步（Uber）、DoorDash或Lyft的任何此类并购都将源于“彻底的绝望”和“生存危机”，而非“战略上的英明”。他指出，随着廉价、无处不在的自动驾驶技术的出现，他们当前的商业模式“彻底完蛋了”（absolutely fucking cooked），因为其最大的成本就是人类司机。 * **特斯拉（Tesla）的无与伦比的地位：** * **成本与规模：** 他认为，“今天能够大规模盈利生产电动汽车的公司名单上只有一个名字：特斯拉（Tesla）。”他声称，没有任何“巨型实体”（giga entity）能够匹敌特斯拉（Tesla）“以可承受的价格大规模生产自动驾驶电动汽车”的能力。 * **Cybercab：** 特斯拉（Tesla）的专用自动驾驶出租车（robotaxi），即Cybercab，预计制造成本将“低于2万美元”，这得益于重新设计的制造系统，其材料、重量和复杂性都低于人类驾驶的车辆。他认为没有任何公司能接近这一成本。 * **自动驾驶软件：** 特斯拉（Tesla）是“唯一一家拥有解决通用自动驾驶所需海量数据的公司。” * **有限的竞争：** 发言人推测，如果杰森（Jason）的论点成立，其他实体要么将拥有“预算极低、俗气且非豪华的替代品”以在成本上竞争，要么在“巨大的成本劣势”下提供卓越的功能，从而导致微薄利润或亏损。 * **关于并购（M&A）的认同：** 发言人确实认同杰森（Jason）的观点，即“大规模并购将因绝望而降临该领域”，并且自动驾驶市场将出现整合。然而，他将合并苦苦挣扎的公司比作拥有“两艘泰坦尼克号”而非一艘。 * **发言人自己的预测：** “特斯拉（Tesla）+时间 = 头号玩家。” * **对竞争对手的比喻：** 他将特斯拉（Tesla）未来的业务描述为“镶金钻石”，而任何提议的巨型实体都将是“撒了糖屑的粪便”。

In a recent discussion, an early Uber investor, Jason (referred to as Jcal in his disclaimer), shared several opinions, ideas, and predictions regarding the future of the autonomy space, forecasting significant merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. **Jason's Key Predictions:** * **Uber Acquisition:** He suggests not to be surprised if Tesla, Amazon, or Google buys Uber for around $300 billion (about double its current market cap) to "win the deployment of autonomous vehicles." * **Waymo Strategy:** Don't be surprised if Waymo buys a car company. * **Consolidation to Compete with Tesla/Waymo:** He predicts DoorDash, Uber, and/or Lyft might merge, and then buy a car company (specifically mentioning Lucid, Rivian, and VW) and an autonomous vehicle (AV) company like Avada Euro, in order to compete. * **Market Growth & Valuation:** He states that in 18 months, companies like Uber, DoorDash, Lyft, Rivian, and Lucid could be worth 50% to 100% more, or be involved in M&A transactions. He believes potential buyers like Amazon, Google, Waymo, and Tesla could acquire these assets for 1% to 15% of their valuations, moving them "right to first place" in autonomy. * **Hypothetical Number One Players:** He outlines combinations that would create a "number one player," such as: * Amazon + Uber + Waymo * Tesla + Uber * Uber + DoorDash + Euro + Lucid (making them "#1 by far player") * Waymo + DoorDash + Uber * **Rationale:** Jason argues that when a huge market like autonomy emerges, consolidation follows, citing the PC and internet eras as precedents. He also disclosed having stakes in "almost all of these companies." **The Speaker's (Steven's) Rebuttals and Agreements:** * **Tesla Buying Uber:** The speaker strongly rejects this idea, stating there is a "0.0% chance that Tesla buys Uber for 300 billion or even for a pack of gum and some skittles," and claims he would "retire from creating content" if it happened. * **Waymo Buying a Car Company:** The speaker sees this as a "next logical step" for Waymo to try and reduce its "absolutely embarrassing current hardware costs," but believes it would ultimately be a "waste of capital" as they couldn't sustainably catch Tesla's costs. * **Lucid/Rivian/VW Acquisitions:** He "strongly suspects that Lucid... are hoping to get acquired," and wouldn't rule out Rivian or even "the burning dumpster fire that is a Volkswagen" being acquired. * **Desperation, Not Brilliance:** The speaker believes that any such mergers/acquisitions by Uber, DoorDash, or Lyft would stem from "sheer desperation" and an "existential crisis," rather than "strategic brilliance." He points out that their current business models are "absolutely fucking cooked" with the advent of cheap, ubiquitous autonomy because their biggest cost is the human driver. * **Tesla's Unmatched Position:** * **Cost & Scale:** He argues that "the list of companies today profitably producing electric vehicles at scale has only one name on it: Tesla." He claims no "giga entity" could match Tesla's capability for "affordably producing autonomous electric vehicles at scale." * **Cybercab:** Tesla's dedicated robotaxi, the Cybercab, is projected to be produced for "sub 20,000 US dollars," benefiting from a reinvented manufacturing system, less material, mass, and complexity than human-driven vehicles. He challenges any company to come close to this cost. * **Autonomy Software:** Tesla is the "only company with the enormous amount of data required to solve general autonomy." * **Limited Competition:** The speaker speculates that if Jason's thesis holds, other entities would either have "extremely low budget tacky non-luxurious alternatives" to match on cost, or offer superior features at a "massive cost disadvantage," leading to thin margins or losses. * **Agreement on M&A:** The speaker does agree with Jason that "big M&A is coming to space" out of desperation and that consolidation will occur in the autonomy market. However, he likens merging struggling companies to having "two Titanics" instead of one. * **Speaker's Own Prediction:** "Tesla + time = number one player." * **Analogy for Competitors:** He describes Tesla's future business as a "gold encrusted diamond," while any proposed giga entity would be a "turd with sprinkles on it."