SI416: 137 Years of Trend: What the Evidence Really Shows ft. Yoav Git

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git examine why trend following continues to endure despite decades of changing markets and persistent skepticism. They revisit AQR’s 137-year study of trend following, exploring diversification, volatility scaling and the behavioral and economic forces behind persistent trends. The conversation also turns to the mechanics of commodity markets, using the 2020 oil collapse to show how inventories, storage capacity and forced futures rolls can produce extreme price moves. Along the way, they discuss investor trust, systematic risk intervention, CTA implementation and why understanding market structure matters just as much as building the signal.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Yoav's radar01:54 - Why investor relationships are ultimately built on trust06:36 - CTA ETFs, strategy changes and investor transparency10:55 - Multi-strategy funds and the cost of complexity12:36 - TTU competition winners and the August trend update16:14 - Global rates, Japan and opportunities beyond U.S. bonds19:07 - August performance and the Trend Barometer21:09 - Correlation, volatility and how CTAs manage portfolio risk25:09 - Human intervention inside a systematic investment process29:40 - Where different commodity market participants operate31:44 - Revisiting 137 years of evidence for trend following38:30 - Has trend following performance actually deteriorated?43:58 - Why diversification is fundamental to trend following51:16 - Oil squeezes, storage and the mechanics of commodity markets58:00 - Carry, inventories and oil price elasticity01:04:36 - What really caused oil prices to turn negative in 202001:09:40 - What commodity market structure teaches trend followersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

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