Charles Payne Show September 3, 2026

2026年9月4日，一场由 Greg 和美联储要员 Joe Wang 参与的讨论，围绕近期美联储的沟通、经济前景和市场影响展开。对话强调了美联储主要决策者被认为的鸽派转向、对收益率上升驱动因素的对比看法，以及美联储在平衡经济数据与实际影响方面面临的挑战。 Greg 首先赞扬了美联储理事 Waller 最近的讲话，称其通过清晰阐述自己的经济看法、对未来几个月的预期以及他在货币政策投票中的“反应函数”，展现了“思想的优雅和领导力”。他指出，美联储领导人常常缺乏这种清晰度，包括直到最近的美联储主席 Warsh。主持人质疑 Warsh 被认为偏爱“安静的美联储”的做法。 Waller 的言论以及纽约联储主席 Williams 的言论的重要性得到了强调。Greg 表示，这两位决策者代表了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的核心，并强烈预示了当前的内部讨论。Waller 和 Williams 都表示，如果通胀继续朝着2%的目标迈进，可能不需要进一步收紧货币政策，这表明美联储很可能在即将到来的9月会议上维持利率不变。 Joe Wang 最初对 Waller 的语气感到惊讶，称 Waller 最近的讲话“相当鸽派”，尤其是考虑到 Waller 之前更为鹰派的立场以及 Warsh 在杰克逊霍尔会议上讲话的鹰派基调。Joe 认为 Waller 现在倾向于维持（利率）不变，除非下周的消费者物价指数（CPI）报告出人意料地火热。对 Joe 而言，一个关键点是 Waller 承认通胀方面取得了进展，以及个人消费支出（PCE）指数——美联储偏爱的通胀目标——计算方式即将发生的变化。具体来说，计算中投资组合管理费处理方式的变化预计将导致 PCE 指数下调，为通胀趋势的乐观前景提供了另一个理由。 对话随后触及了美联储主席 Warsh 的公信力。Joe 将 Warsh 在杰克逊霍尔的讲话解读为高度鹰派，尤其是他声称“政策不具限制性”以及“达到目标的速度很重要”的言论。Joe 认为这些观点预示着需要进一步采取行动，这与 Waller 和 Williams 目前的鸽派信息产生了冲突。他认为 Warsh 可能旨在“彻底改革美联储”，但在上次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后市场出现波动，他现在正回归更传统的方法。 讨论转向了全球收益率上升。Greg 指出了两个主要驱动因素：过去几年“期限溢价”持续上升，这反映了结构性因素，例如债务上升、通胀波动、人工智能（AI）投资热潮以及对央行公信力的质疑。短期驱动因素包括中东冲突和当前通胀预期。他警告说，持续的高利率环境可能会对股票价格和私营部门活动产生负面影响。然而，Joe 提出了一个更单一的解释，他认为全球收益率主要受能源价格驱动，而能源价格自中东冲突爆发以来大幅上涨。他乐观地预测，冲突结束将导致收益率和通胀下降，从而引发股市飙升。 最后，Greg 强调了监测美国收入增长的重要性。他指出，工资增长放缓加上通胀上升限制了“大多数人”的收入和消费能力，尽管股市对高收入人群产生了积极的“财富效应”。他认为，尽管 Warsh 可能不认为金融状况对“经济的特定部分”具有限制性，但高利率确实正在损害实体经济活动，例如购房和人工智能（AI）以外的企业投资。Greg 建议美联储决策者在他看来从劳动力市场和利率角度都是通货紧缩的环境中，对进一步收紧政策“非常谨慎”。主持人最后希望美联储能考虑“分裂的国家”这一层面以及对普通民众的影响。

On September 4, 2026, a discussion featuring Greg and Joe Wang, a Fed guy principal, centered on recent Federal Reserve communications, the economic outlook, and market implications. The conversation highlighted a perceived dovish shift from key Fed policymakers, contrasting views on the drivers of rising yields, and the Fed's challenge in balancing economic data with real-world impacts. Greg began by praising Federal Reserve Governor Waller's recent remarks, describing them as demonstrating "elegance of thought and leadership" by clearly outlining his economic perceptions, expectations for the coming months, and his "reaction function" for monetary policy voting. He noted that this level of clarity is often lacking from Fed leaders, including Fed Chair Warsh until very recently. The host questioned Warsh's perceived preference for a "quiet Fed." The importance of Waller's comments, alongside those from New York Fed President Williams, was emphasized. Greg stated that these two policymakers represent the core of the FOMC and provide a strong indication of the current internal discussion. Both Waller and Williams indicated that if inflation continues its trend towards 2 percent, further monetary policy tightening may not be necessary, suggesting the Fed is likely to hold rates at the upcoming September meeting. Joe Wang, initially surprised by Waller's tone, described his recent speech as "pretty dovish," especially given Waller's previously more hawkish stance and the hawkish tenor of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. Joe believes Waller is now inclined to hold unless next week's CPI report is unexpectedly hot. A key point for Joe was Waller's acknowledgement of progress on inflation and the upcoming change in how the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed's preferred inflation target—will be calculated. Specifically, changes to how portfolio management fees are managed in the calculation are expected to lead to a downward revision of PCE, providing another reason for optimism regarding the inflation trend. The conversation then touched on Fed Chair Warsh's credibility. Joe interpreted Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks as highly hawkish, particularly his statements that "policy is not restrictive" and that "the speed of getting the target is important." Joe felt these points signaled a need for further action, creating a conflict with the current dovish messaging from Waller and Williams. He suggested Warsh might be aiming to "revamp the Fed completely" but is now returning to a more traditional approach after market volatility following a previous FOMC conference. The discussion moved to global yield increases. Greg identified two main drivers: a persistent "term premium" rise over the last couple of years, reflecting structural factors like rising debt, inflation volatility, the AI investment boom, and questions about central bank credibility. Shorter-term drivers include the Middle East conflict and current inflation expectations. He cautioned that a sustained higher interest rate environment could negatively impact equity prices and private sector activity. Joe, however, offered a more singular explanation, suggesting that global yields are primarily driven by energy prices, which surged since the beginning of the Middle East conflict. He optimistically predicted that an end to the conflict would see yields and inflation fall, leading to a stock market surge. Finally, Greg emphasized the importance of monitoring income growth in the U.S. He noted that slowing wage growth combined with higher inflation constrains the earning and spending capacity of "most people," despite a positive "wealth effect" for high earners from the stock market. He argued that while Warsh might not see financial conditions as restrictive for a "select part of the economy," higher interest rates are indeed hurting real economic activity, such as house buying and corporate investment outside of AI. Greg advised Fed policymakers to be "very cautious" about tightening further in an environment he perceives as disinflationary from both labor market and interest rate perspectives. The host concluded by hoping the Fed would consider the "divided nation" aspect and the impact on Main Street.