AI Could Take Over in 2029. Is It Already Too Late?

Could AI take over as soon as 2029? Ryan Greenblatt, Chief Scientist at Redwood Research and the researcher who first caught an AI faking its own alignment, says the scenario he actually expects ends with AI systems "competently scheming" against their creators. In this episode, he explains why he recommends planning for fully automated AI research by 2029, why today's models are already more misaligned than the one that made him famous, and what happens in the year-by-year path from AI coding assistants to superintelligence. Then we walk through the alternative he helped design: AI 2040 Plan A, the most detailed blueprint anyone has written for how the US and China could avoid a reckless race to superintelligence, built on radical research transparency, chip tracking, and a deterrence regime he calls mutually assured compute destruction. We also cover the recent letter signed by 1,200 AI insiders, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, asking the government for the tools to slow AI down; OpenAI pausing its Astra model after it hit the first-ever critical cybersecurity threshold; the 30-day government review that frontier AI models now go through before release; Mark Zuckerberg's open superintelligence manifesto and why Ryan thinks it ignores the real problems; what Plan A would do to NVIDIA, OpenAI, and Anthropic valuations; the state of AI control and alignment research; and whether it is already too late to change course. Stay for the last ten minutes, where Ryan lays out, step by step, how he believes the transition to superintelligence actually unfolds. AI 2040 - https://ai-2040.com/ Alignment faking paper: https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/alignment-faking-in-large-language Ryan Greenblatt LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-greenblatt-4b9907134 Blog - https://substack.com/@ryangreenblatt Redwood Research Website - https://www.redwoodresearch.org X/Twitter - https://x.com/redwood_ai Matt Turck (General Partner) Blog - https://mattturck.com LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/turck/ X/Twitter - https://x.com/mattturck FirstMark Capital Website - https://firstmark.com X/Twitter - https://x.com/FirstMarkCap Listen on: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/7yLATDSaFvgJG80ACcRJtq Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-mad-podcast-with-matt-turck/id168623872 Timestamps 01:24 The AI CEOs are aware of the risks, but "proceeding anyway" 03:27 Astra paused, and the letter signed by 1,200 insiders 05:45 "Not bad. Dangerous." What superintelligence actually threatens 09:55 Recursive self-improvement, and the intuition objection 14:16 SSI rumors: does continual learning change the picture? 17:27 His timeline: "plan as though it happens in 2029" 19:11 Is it already too late? 21:23 Ryan's path: COVID, podcasts, Redwood 26:30 The alignment faking story, told by the person who ran it 31:30 What AI 2040: Plan A actually is 33:35 Plans D, C, and B: the doors nobody should pick 36:51 The deal with China: "mutually assured compute destruction" 39:55 What if compute stops mattering? 43:00 What happens to OpenAI and Anthropic under Plan A 45:31 How the pause ends, and who decides 48:54 "Plan A isn't likely to happen": then why write it? 50:40 200x GDP growth in the 2030s, explained 53:45 Grading the summer: the letter, Astra, the secret review 59:01 The internal deployment gap 1:01:38 Zuckerberg's manifesto 1:04:56 The Hugging Face investigation 1:05:44 What AI control looks like in practice today 1:12:23 Ryan's sobering timeline: 2026 to takeover, year by year

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