Forget growth stocks. Buy value before the hangover.

Gold broke out of a nine-week range and Kenny Polcari thinks the move is fear rather than fundamentals. Adam Shapiro, managing editor at AInvest, would still consider buying it, around the 15% Ray Dalio floated, on one condition: decide now when you are getting out. His trigger is the midterms. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, argues the tailwind that carried stocks for fifteen years has reversed, and warns that fifteen years of buying the dip has made the habit more dangerous rather than safer. They also dig into the bond market, and where the danger zone starts on the 10-year. Timestamps 00:00 The bond market is running this market, not the Fed 00:40 Why stock traders cannot ignore the flows 01:11 Is the Treasury working against its own Fed nominee 01:45 The Bay of Fundy tides, and what a Treasury cannot fight 02:50 Shapiro on a weaker dollar and the inflation nobody has priced 03:28 Why Bessent cannot control the long end 04:17 The Soros comparison, and what actually breaks a central bank 04:58 Tariffed lumber against the promise of cheaper housing 05:09 A trillion a year in interest crowds out everything else 06:22 The tailwind that carried stocks for fifteen years just flipped 07:10 A slow motion train wreck we are already in 07:47 The refinancing window Yellen never used 08:47 AI capex is now competing with the government for money 09:30 Where the danger zone starts on the 10-year 10:21 Why the bond market may force the recession the Fed will not 10:39 Volcker, 1982, and what a real reset looked like 12:45 Ray Dalio says sell everything: Shapiro on why that is noise 14:09 Buying the dip worked for 15 years. Sosnick on why that is the danger 15:09 Gold broke out of a nine-week range, and why Polcari calls it a fear trade 15:25 Shapiro would buy it at 15%, with one condition 15:42 Set your exit before you buy, and why the trigger is the midterms 16:14 What a midterm sweep would actually do 16:51 The entitlement problem nobody will touch 19:33 The wealth tax, and why the math does not work 21:46 2032, and 70 cents on the dollar 23:04 Simpson-Bowles, and the bipartisan effort that died in committee #TraderTalk #KennyPolcari #YahooFinance #BondMarket #Investing #Markets == AlphaSpace by Yahoo Finance: A Professional-Grade Investment Platform Built for Everyday Investors. 👉 https://finance.yahoo.com/about/promos/gold/alphaspace?ncid=100003571

GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......

翻译全文