20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses | Why Founders Should Never Take Multi-Stage Money at Seed | Why Triple, Triple, Double, Double is Good Enough

以下是内容的中文翻译： Founder Collective 的 David Frankel 是一位经验丰富的风险投资家，他对当前投资格局（其特点是估值不断攀升和人工智能的变革力量）提出了引人入胜的见解。Harry Stebbings 赞扬 Frankel 严谨、早期、“工匠般”的投资方法，指出他在 Uber、Coupang 等公司上取得了成功，并通过投资 Shield AI 和 Suno 顺利过渡到人工智能领域。 Frankel 挑战了关于基金规模的传统观念，特别是 5000 万至 1 亿美元规模基金所面临的困境。他认为，持续的早期投资使 Founder Collective 能够成为创始人的“保险单”，在大型参与者旁边进行战略性的小额投资。他强调要在“非主流”领域寻找价值，而不是追逐被过度炒作的融资轮次，并质疑许多获得快速融资的人工智能公司（尽管估值很高）的资本效率。 他对“创始人”（founders）和“企业家”（entrepreneurs）做了重要区分，强调后者（企业家）的坚韧不拔、永无止境的学习曲线以及对招聘的重视（这呼应了杰夫·贝佐斯将 50% 的时间花在“招募人才”上的说法）。Frankel 在联合创始团队中寻求“点金术”，珍视首席执行官的销售能力与首席技术官“魔术师般”的技术技能相结合。他还推崇他称之为“裙带关系宝宝”（Nepo babies）——那些拥有深厚、往往是世代相传的特定领域经验的创始人，例如 PillPack 在药学领域的 TJ Parker，或 Suno 在人工智能音乐领域的团队。 尽管承认当前“泡沫越来越大”的“泡沫”局面，Frankel 警告前方将出现大量“牺牲品”。他驳斥了“价格不如以往重要”的观念，强调了所有权的“纯粹数学”。他将“十亿美元是新的 A 轮融资”这一说法视为一种“动量投资”策略，与他的价值投资理念形成对比。尽管投资了巨大的成功项目，Frankel 仍抵制大幅增加基金规模，他表示自己“贪婪的是回报，而非管理费”，并且是自己基金最大的有限合伙人（LP），这确保了利益一致性。他认为“按比例增资权（pro rata）几乎就像原罪”，但会为杰出的创始人战略性地接受；他承认，他很少仅仅因为初始持股比例低而放弃一笔交易。 Frankel 指出二级市场流动性增加，他认为这是向有限合伙人（LP）交付已分配资本/实缴资本比率（DPI）的宝贵工具，即使这意味着出售一部分持股。他强调了“现金流转速度”，以及即时回报的吸引力，胜过等待多年才能获得更大但延迟的收益。 谈到人工智能的更广泛影响，Frankel 认为 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 是主要的颠覆者，最终将在某些领域取代谷歌乃至微软等现有巨头。他预测人工智能将带来巨大的生产力提升，而不是大规模失业，但强调了持续技能适应和再培训的至关重要性。他认为在服务行业中，深厚的垂直领域知识和人际关系仍将至关重要。展望未来，他预计人工智能将在医疗和日常生活中带来重大突破，同时，颠覆性的底层计算技术，如光子计算，也将浮出水面。他也承认地缘政治因素在塑造全球人工智能格局方面的重要作用，特别是美国普遍亲商业的立场和中国监管相对宽松的环境。 Frankel 的见解强调了在不断发展的风险投资世界中，长期愿景、严谨的执行力以及对人性动态深刻理解的重要性。

David Frankel of Founder Collective, a seasoned venture capitalist, offers a compelling perspective on the current investment landscape, characterized by escalating valuations and the transformative power of AI. Harry Stebbings praises Frankel's disciplined, early-stage, "craftsman-like" approach, noting his success with companies like Uber, Coupang, and his seamless transition into AI with investments in Shield AI and Suno. Frankel challenges the conventional wisdom regarding fund size, particularly the struggles of $50-100 million funds. He argues that persistent early-stage investing allows Founder Collective to act as an "insurance policy" for founders, making strategic smaller investments alongside larger players. He emphasizes finding value "off-piste" rather than chasing overhyped rounds, and questions the capital efficiency of many rapidly funded AI companies despite their high valuations. He draws a crucial distinction between "founders" and "entrepreneurs," highlighting the latter's fortitude, relentless learning curve, and focus on recruiting (echoing Jeff Bezos's 50% time spent on "bums on seats"). Frankel seeks "alchemy" in co-founding teams, valuing a CEO's salesmanship paired with a CTO's technical "magician" skills. He also champions what he terms "Nepo babies"—founders with deep, often generational, domain-specific experience, like PillPack's TJ Parker in pharmacy or Suno's team in AI music. While acknowledging the current "bubble" where "the bubbles get bigger," Frankel warns of significant "roadkill" ahead. He dismisses the notion that "price matters less than ever," stressing the "pure math" of ownership. He views the idea of "a billion is the new Series A" as a momentum play, contrasting it with his value-investing philosophy. Despite having invested in massive successes, Frankel resists significantly increasing fund size, stating he's "greedy for returns, not management fees," and is the largest LP in his own funds, ensuring alignment. He views "pro rata as almost like the original sin" but strategically accepts it for exceptional founders, acknowledging that he rarely turns down a deal purely for low initial ownership. Frankel notes the increased liquidity in secondary markets, which he sees as a valuable tool for delivering Distributed to Paid In Capital (DPI) to LPs, even if it means selling a portion of a position. He highlights the "velocity of cash" and the appeal of immediate returns over waiting years for a larger, but delayed, payout. On AI's broader impact, Frankel sees OpenAI and Anthropic as major disruptors, ultimately displacing incumbents like Google and even Microsoft in some areas. He predicts massive productivity gains from AI, not mass unemployment, but stresses the critical need for continuous skill adaptation and retraining. He believes deep vertical knowledge and human relationships will remain crucial in service industries. Looking ahead, he anticipates significant breakthroughs in medicine and everyday life through AI, alongside the emergence of disruptive underlying computing technologies like photonic computing. He also acknowledges the significant role of geopolitical factors, particularly the US's generally pro-business stance and China's less regulated environment, in shaping the global AI landscape. Frankel's insights underscore the importance of long-term vision, disciplined execution, and a deep understanding of human dynamics in the ever-evolving venture capital world.