FINAL CHANCE: New 20 Year Tesla + SpaceX Model

以下是视频内容的中文总结，包含提到的所有新闻项目： 演讲者宣布，他们全新的**“20年特斯拉和SpaceX估值模型”即将上线，**预计“最多几小时或几天”。一旦模型上线，**Patreon订阅价格将大幅上涨。**现有会员可以在模型上线前加入或升级，以锁定现有价格。 视频随后转入一段为Patreon会员准备的预录信息，提供了更多关于模型的详细信息： **模型发布与开发状态：** * 模型“现在已经非常接近了”，此前曾估计“可能最多还有几周”（尽管演讲者澄清这是一个“埃隆时间”的玩笑，意味着很快，而非严格意义上的两周）。 * 模型正处于“收尾工作”和“最终调整”阶段，大部分错误和漏洞都已修复。 * GrokBuild协助编写了代码，将假设输入模型。 * 模型设计为用户友好，但又极其详细。 * 演讲者已努力弥补其在时间和规模方面“病态的乐观偏见”。 * 模型不会为了某个特定日期而推迟；完成后将同步上线并涨价。 **模型统计数据（可能发生变化）：** * 模型内含大约 **34,600个词。** * **42个不同的工作表或标签页。** * 大约 **4,270个可编辑数值。** * 大约 **18,300个输出项。** * 大约 **18,300个公式。** **截至录制时提到的最密集的工作表：** 1. **AI计算能力：** 2,250个单元格，340个可编辑单元格，近1,500个公式。 2. **资本支出和资金。** 3. **FSD（全自动驾驶）。** 4. **自动驾驶出租车。** 5. **轨道AI。** **关键价值驱动因素（剧透预警）：** * 对于SpaceX：**AI计算能力。** * 对于特斯拉：**擎天柱（Optimus）机器人。** **包含的具体业务/公司工作表：** * **SpaceX：** 发射业务、星链（Starlink）、AI计算能力、巨像地面计算（对地球AI计算的深度分析）、轨道AI（星智Starmind）、SpaceX AI产品（Grok、TerraFab项目、X平台），以及“其他业务”。 * **特斯拉：** 汽车业务、能源业务、FSD、自动驾驶出租车、擎天柱、服务业务、自动驾驶业务。 **模型的其他特点和部分：** * SpaceX和特斯拉的综合概览表。 * 两家公司的公允估值表。 * 专门用于**合并协同效应**的整个工作表（例如，制造/供应链成本节约、共享AI计算资源、**特斯拉车辆中的星链连接**——特斯拉第二季度财报电话会议上最近提及）。 * 如果两家公司合并，计算**合并两家公司的合理比率**（不是50-50，取决于模型假设）。 * 一个“**卡尔达肖夫指数草图**”工作表，概述了基于长期AI计算（地球内外）和全球能源生产/存储可能达到的卡尔达肖夫1型、2型和3型文明的潜在比例。 * 比较部分，消化了一份关于SpaceX的**100页华尔街研究报告**，显示了收入细分（星链 vs. AI计算 vs. 发射）的差异。 * 专门的**常见问题解答（FAQs）部分**，回答了“红旗或黄旗”（指风险或警告信号），例如AI计算在未来收入/利润中的份额。 * 模型假设在未来20年内，对**AI训练和推理计算的需求接近无限**，SpaceX AI保持着更快地实现计算能力上线的独特能力。 * 关键是，模型假设**SpaceX AI在所有AI计算基础设施中的市场份额甚至没有达到亚马逊网络服务（AWS）目前所占的百分比（约28%）。** * 一份“通俗易懂的文字叙述”，解释了模型的基础情景，其中**到2040年代中期，SpaceX的营业利润将以每年万亿美元计，而特斯拉的自动驾驶和机器人业务将“使老牌汽车公司相形见绌”。** * 关键图表供视觉参考，包括2026-2046年基础情景、牛市情景和熊市情景下的估计公允价值。 * 导航模型的指导路径，以便快速概览。 **模型更新与发布说明：** * 初始发布后，每次更改的**发布说明将由GrokBuild生成。** * **预计会频繁更新**，特别是针对SpaceX（新的计算交易、星舰进展、星链用户/蜂窝服务增长、星智）。 * 更新将在**季度财报发布后进行精简**（例如，**特斯拉第二季度北美FSD选装率达55%**）。 * 预计**至少每季度更新两次**（在特斯拉和SpaceX财报发布后），加上根据新信息进行的临时调整。 **Patreon会员与定价策略说明：** * 现有相同支持等级的会员将**锁定现有价格**，只要他们保持会员身份。 * **入门级Patreon支持者**将获得比现有特斯拉模型更详细的最终输出，但不是完整模型。 * 明确警告**不要临时升级以访问模型一次然后降级**：这将导致为之前的层级支付更高的价格，因为价格已经上涨。 * **一次性访问的解决方案：** 保持在当前等级，当模型上线时，将提供一个**可购买的一次性帖子**（只读或可编辑的V1版本）。该帖子的定价为“数月订阅的价值”，但**不包括持续更新。** * 要获得**持续升级访问权限**（包括未来所有更新的只读或可编辑模型），会员必须在**模型上线和价格上涨之前升级其会员等级。** * 如果会员希望保持当前的访问级别，则无需采取任何行动。 **行动号召：** 这是**“最后机会”**，可以在Patreon价格大幅上涨之前锁定当前价格。一个巨魔/仇恨者的促销代码**CONFUSEDADMIRER**提供0.0%的折扣。

Here's a summary of the video transcription, including every single news item mentioned: The speaker announces that their new **20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model is going live "any moment,"** with an expectation of "hours or days at most." Once it's live, **Patreon prices will increase significantly**. Current members can lock in existing prices by joining or upgrading before the launch. The video then transitions to a pre-recorded message for Patreon members, offering more details about the model: **Model Launch & Development Status:** * The model is "getting very close now," with a previous estimate of "probably at most a couple of weeks away" (though the speaker clarifies this was an "Elon time" joke, meaning soon, not a fixed two weeks). * The model is in the "finishing touches" and "final tweaks" stage, with most bugs, errors, and mistakes ironed out. * GrokBuild assisted with writing code to put assumptions into the model. * The model is designed to be user-friendly but also incredibly detailed. * The speaker has attempted to compensate for his "pathological optimism bias" regarding timing and scale. * The model will not be held for any special date; it goes live and prices hike simultaneously when it's done. **Model Statistics (subject to change):** * Approximately **34,600 words** within the model. * **42 different sheets or tabs**. * Approximately **4,270 editable values**. * Approximately **18,300 outputs**. * Roughly **18,300 formulas**. **Densest Sheets Mentioned (as of recording):** 1. **AI Compute:** 2,250 cells, 340 editable cells, nearly 1,500 formulas. 2. **CapEx and Funding**. 3. **FSD**. 4. **RoboTaxi**. 5. **Orbital AI**. **Key Value Drivers (Spoiler Alert):** * For SpaceX: **AI Compute**. * For Tesla: **Optimus**. **Specific Business/Company Sheets Included:** * **SpaceX:** Launch, Starlink, AI Compute, Colossus terrestrial compute (deep dive on Earth-based AI compute), Orbital AI (Starmind), SpaceX AI products (Grok, TerraFab project, X platform), plus "other businesses." * **Tesla:** Vehicle business, Energy, FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus, Services, Autonomy. **Other Features & Sections of the Model:** * Consolidated overview sheets for SpaceX and Tesla. * Fair valuation sheets for both companies. * An entire sheet dedicated to **merger synergies** (e.g., manufacturing/supply chain savings, shared AI compute resources, **Starlink connectivity in Tesla vehicles** – a recent mention from the Tesla Q2 earnings call). * Calculation of the **fair ratio for combining the two companies** if they were to merge (not 50-50, tied to model assumptions). * A **"Kardashev sketch"** sheet outlining potential fractions of Kardashev Type 1, 2, and 3 civilizations achieved based on long-term AI compute (on and off Earth) and global energy production/storage. * Comparison section digesting a **100-page Wall Street research report on SpaceX**, showing differences in revenue breakdowns (Starlink vs. AI compute vs. launch). * Dedicated **FAQs section** addressing "red or yellow flags," such as the share of AI compute in future revenue/profits. * The model assumes **near-infinite demand for AI training and inference compute** over 20 years, with SpaceX AI maintaining a unique ability to bring capacity online faster. * Crucially, the model assumes **SpaceX AI's market share of all AI compute infrastructure does not even reach the same percentage share as Amazon Web Services (AWS) has today (approximately 28%)**. * A "plain text, plain English" narrative explaining the model's base case, where **SpaceX operating profit is measured in trillions per year by the mid-2040s, and Tesla's autonomy and robotics businesses "dwarf the old car company."** * Key charts for visual reference, including estimated fair values in base, bull, and bear cases for 2026-2046. * A guided path to navigate the model for quick overviews. **Model Updates & Release Notes:** * **Release notes will be generated by GrokBuild** for every change after initial publication. * **Frequent updates are expected**, especially for SpaceX (new compute deals, Starship progress, Starlink user/cell service growth, Starmind). * Updates will be streamlined after **quarterly earnings reports** (e.g., **Tesla Q2 FSD take rate in North America was 55%**). * Anticipate at least **twice-quarterly updates** (after Tesla and SpaceX earnings) plus ad hoc adjustments for new information. **Patreon Membership & Pricing Strategy Clarification:** * Existing members at the same supporter level will **lock in current pricing** for as long as they stay members. * **Entry-level Patreon supporters** will receive the final outputs with more detail than the current Tesla equivalent, but not the full model. * A specific warning against **temporary upgrades to access the model once and then downgrade**: this will result in paying higher prices for previous tiers due to the price increase. * **Solution for one-off access:** Stay at your current level, and when the model goes live, a **purchasable one-off post** (read-only or editable version 1) will be available. This post will be priced at "multiple months worth of access" but *will not* include ongoing updates. * To get **ongoing upgraded access** (read-only or editable model with all future updates), members must **upgrade their membership level *before* the model goes live** and prices increase. * If members want to maintain their current access level, they don't need to do anything. **Call to Action:** This is the **"last chance"** to lock in current Patreon prices before the significant increase. A troll/hater promo code **CONFUSEDADMIRER** offers a 0.0% discount.