TIVP087 (Video): DLocal (DLO): Multibagger Potential with Decade-Long Runway w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
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DLocal被认为是一个极具吸引力的投资机会，尽管其营收每年增长50%、盈利能力高且资产负债表强劲，但估值倍数仅为十几倍。它正处于两大超级趋势的交汇点：一是新兴市场（EMs）的增长和数字化，二是亚马逊、Meta、Netflix、优步、阿里巴巴、拼多多等全球科技巨头向这些地区的扩张。该公司获得了首席执行官Pietro Arn的重要背书。Pietro Arn曾担任MercadoLibre（Melly）首席财务官25年，后辞职并领导DLocal，他坚信DLocal是科技巨头在新兴市场取得成功的最佳代表。
DLocal运营着一个B2B支付平台，为新兴市场的全球公司提供服务。它的前身AstroPay最初专注于B2C预付卡。创始人随后意识到B2B领域存在更大的机遇，并于2016年分拆出DLocal，使其成为乌拉圭第一家独角兽企业。DLocal解决的问题是新兴市场碎片化且复杂的支付格局。在这些市场，当地支付方式（例如巴西的PIX、印度的UPI、尼日利亚的Verve）普遍存在，但国际商家难以接入；而全球银行卡网络由于严格的反欺诈措施和监管障碍，经常面临高交易拒绝率。
DLocal为商家提供一个单一的API接口，负责处理超过60个市场的本地集成、许可证、税收法规和银行系统。它的“护城河”建立在规模、监管专业知识（已获得38张牌照，更多正在申请中）以及对新兴市场碎片化的深刻理解之上。该公司的增值服务包括：用于在非银行卡系统上实现定期订阅支付的“智能PIX/APM”；“智能路由”，可动态选择最佳支付路径以提高批准率（比国际银行卡高出20个百分点）；以及一种“先买后付”（BNPL）聚合器模式，将商家与当地BNPL贷款机构连接起来，而DLocal不承担信用风险。这些服务显著提高了商家的转化率。巨大的交易量（每年35亿笔支付入账交易）进一步巩固了其数据优势，从而改善路由并吸引更多商家。
一个主要挑战是DLocal不断下降的佣金率，该比率已从2020年的2.9%降至目前的0.9%。管理层将此归因于一项战略决策，即通过提供折扣来优先处理来自大型商家的交易量。首席执行官Pedro Arn认为，尽管佣金率下降，但DLocal受益于经营杠杆，使得净利润增长速度快于毛利润。他相信市场整合可能使DLocal成为“价格影响力者”，而且技术进步将进一步加速新兴市场的碎片化，从而增加DLocal的必要性。
客户和地域集中度是值得注意的风险，其中拉丁美洲贡献了80%的营收，前十大商家则占总营收的62%。然而，强劲的净收入留存率（2025年达到145%）表明公司与现有客户的深度融合以及业务量的持续增长。DLocal成功应对了浑水公司（Muddy Waters）2022年发布的一份做空报告，一项独立的审查驳斥了报告中的指控，且没有商家放弃该平台。稳定币被视为DLocal结算流程的潜在成本降低者，而非直接威胁，因为DLocal仍然提供将资金转换为当地法定货币的关键“最后一公里”服务。阿根廷作为一个重要市场（占拉美地区营收的20%），其监管变化尽管因降低了复杂性而减少了DLocal的利润率，但却提高了盈利质量。
在财务方面，DLocal展现出强劲的总支付量（TPV）增长（去年同比增长60%，自2019年以来年复合增长率约80%）。尽管佣金率受到挤压，但经营杠杆预计将推动EBITDA和EBIT利润率走高。该公司通过股息（自由现金流的30%，3-4%的股息收益率）和股票回购（已授权一项新的3亿美元回购计划，可能回购公司7-8%的股份）向股东回报资本。管理层和创始人拥有大量股权（33%）。
考虑到TPV预计到2028年将以38%的速度增长（此后将放缓至20%），佣金率趋于稳定，以及经营杠杆作用，DLocal在基本情境下预计将提供约22%的回报（具有20%的安全边际和十几倍的退出估值倍数）。策略是在投资组合中建立2%的小额头寸，并意图在出现任何显著疲软时增持，同时考虑到该股的历史波动性。
DLocal is presented as a compelling investment opportunity, boasting a mid-teens multiple despite 50% annual top-line growth, high profitability, and a strong balance sheet. It sits at the nexus of two megatrends: the growth and digitalization of emerging markets (EMs) and the expansion of global tech giants like the MAG7 (Amazon, Meta, Netflix, Uber, Alibaba, Pinduoduo) into these regions. A significant endorsement comes from CEO Pietro Arn, former CFO of MercadoLibre (Melly) for 25 years, who left to lead DLocal, believing it's a prime proxy for big tech's success in EMs.
DLocal operates a B2B payment platform, serving global companies in emerging markets. Its origin, AstroPay, initially focused on B2C prepaid cards. The founders realized the larger opportunity in B2B. Spun off in 2016, DLocal became Uruguay's first unicorn. The problem DLocal solves is the fragmented and complex payment landscape in EMs, where local payment methods (e.g., Brazil's PIX, India's UPI, Nigeria's Verve) are prevalent but not easily accessible for international merchants, and global card networks often face high transaction decline rates due to strict anti-fraud measures and regulatory hurdles.
DLocal provides a single API for merchants, handling local integrations, licenses, tax rules, and banking systems across over 60 markets. Its "moat" is built on scale, regulatory expertise (38 licenses, more pending), and deep understanding of EM fragmentation. The company's value-added services include "smart PIX/APMs" for enabling recurring subscription payments on non-card systems, "smart routing" to dynamically pick the best payment path for higher approval rates (a 20 percentage point increase over international cards), and a Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) aggregator model that connects merchants to local BNPL lenders without DLocal taking on credit risk. These services significantly boost conversion rates for merchants. The vast transaction volume (3.5 billion pay-in transactions annually) further compounds its data advantage, improving routing and attracting more merchants.
A key challenge is DLocal's declining take rate, which fell from 2.9% in 2020 to 0.9% today. Management attributes this to a strategic decision to prioritize transaction volume from large merchants, offering discounts. CEO Pedro Arn argues that while take rates fall, DLocal benefits from operating leverage, allowing net profits to grow faster than gross profits. He believes market consolidation could make DLocal a "price influencer" and that technological advancements will further accelerate EM fragmentation, increasing DLocal's necessity.
Customer and geographic concentration are noted risks, with Latin America accounting for 80% of revenue and the top 10 merchants making up 62%. However, strong net revenue retention (145% in 2025) indicates deep integration and growing volume from existing clients. DLocal successfully navigated a 2022 short report from Muddy Waters, with an independent review refuting allegations and no merchants abandoning the platform. Stablecoins are viewed as a potential cost reducer for DLocal's settlement processes rather than a direct threat, as DLocal still provides the essential "last mile" conversion to local fiat currency. Argentina, a significant market (20% of LatAm revenue), has seen regulatory changes that, while reducing DLocal's margins from complexity, improve the quality of earnings.
Financially, DLocal exhibits robust Total Payment Volume (TPV) growth (60% YoY last year, ~80% CAGR since 2019). Despite take rate compression, operating leverage is expected to drive EBITDA and EBIT margins higher. The company returns capital via dividends (30% free cash flow, 3-4% yield) and share buybacks (a new $300 million program authorized, potentially repurchasing 7-8% of the company). Management and founders have substantial ownership (33%).
With TPV projected to grow at 38% through 2028 (decelerating to 20% after), a stabilizing take rate, and operating leverage, DLocal presents an expected return of approximately 22% in the base case (with a 20% margin of safety and a low-teens exit multiple). The strategy is to initiate a small 2% position in the portfolio, with the intent to increase it on any significant weakness, acknowledging the stock's historical volatility.
摘要
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into DLocal (NASDAQ: DLO), the first Uruguayan unicorn and the emerging markets payment provider for companies like Amazon, Uber, Spotify, Netflix, and many more. DLocal is trading at attractive multiples while growing payment volumes at over 70% and printing cash due to high operating leverage and a high-margin business model. That cash is given back to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.
Daniel and Shawn discuss whether the high customer concentration and the declining take rate justify the cheap valuation or whether the market is not understanding the full potential of this emerging market jewel. In the end, Daniel values the business and decides whether DLO deserves a spot in The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:02:04) How DLO became the leading player in emerging markets
(00:06:16) What makes DLO’s business model stand out
(00:14:20) What two megatrends DLO benefits from
(00:26:41) Whether there is a race to the bottom with take rates
(00:50:37) How DLO compares to Western competition
(00:56:58) How DLocal distributes cash to shareholders
(01:13:26) Valuation discussion of DLO
(01:16:05) Whether DLO is valued attractively
(01:17:44) Whether Shawn and Daniel add DLO to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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Interview with the CEO, Pedro Arnt.
DLocal Investor Relations Podcast.
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