Motley Fool Money: 04.17.2009

Motley Fool Money 节目组，由 Chris Hill、James Early、Seth Jason 和 Shannon Zimmerman 组成，涵盖了广泛的金融新闻，从企业财报和破产，到投资策略和个人牢骚。 **金融板块财报：喜忧参半** 本周，花旗集团、高盛、摩根大通和通用电气等主要金融巨头的财报均好于预期。然而，James Early 警告称，企业可能正在“预支利好”，以便在政府和纳税人面前表现良好，并警示未来潜在的信贷质量问题，特别是考虑到此类估算经常被操纵。Seth Jason 承认花旗集团一级资本充足率的改善和成功的成本削减，但也指出了消费信贷中“令人震惊的严峻问题”：信用卡净信贷损失率达到了 10%，是平均水平的两到三倍，并且预计会进一步恶化。Shannon Zimmerman 补充说，“好于预期”是一个相对概念，因为该行业的预期在过去几年中一直被系统性地降低。尽管银行股受到重创，Shannon 指出金融板块在过去六周内反弹了 60%，这股涨势由“希望和善意”驱动，需要基本面来证实。Seth Jason 进一步指出，花旗集团目前的盈利主要流向优先股股东，普通股股东排在最后。 **谷歌营收下滑** 谷歌也公布了好于预期的财报，但这标志着其自 2004 年 IPO 以来首次出现季度营收环比下降。Shannon Zimmerman 长期以来对谷歌的增长故事持怀疑态度，她将此归因于其深度周期性的广告销售模式，该模式随整体经济潮起潮落。尽管如此，她赞扬了管理层在经济低迷时期出人意料的有效成本削减措施。Seth Jason 幽默地表示，谷歌聘请了一位“财务人员”来处理不受欢迎的裁员任务，从而让“嬉皮士风格”的创始人避免了指责。 **General Growth 破产：商业地产的警示** 美国第二大购物中心运营商 General Growth 申请了第 11 章破产保护。尽管该公司声称购物者不会注意到，但 Seth Jason 认为债权人掌握控制权将不可避免地导致改变。他认为这对零售商来说是一个一线希望，预示着租赁空间会有很好的交易。更广泛地说，Seth 将这次破产视为企业在“房地产泡沫期间陷入同样陷阱”的例子，即过度借贷且无法展期债务。James Early 强调，这可能成为商业地产的“坏兆头”，进而对严重暴露于该市场的小型本地银行造成影响。Shannon Zimmerman 则认为这是一个有用的案例，可以将媒体的注意力从住宅地产转向商业地产。 **eBay 剥离 Skype** eBay 宣布将剥离其互联网电话公司 Skype，并计划明年进行 IPO。Shannon Zimmerman 认为此举将使 eBay 对投资者更具吸引力，称 Skype 是 eBay 手中“一个有趣但被玩砸了的棋子”，并暗示这家电商巨头需要专注于其核心业务。James Early 重申了他“宣言”中的观点，即大多数收购都会失败（即使从投资银行家的角度来看，也是五次中有四次失败），因为管理者倾向于“严重高估协同效应”。他总结说，Skype 对 eBay 来说“从一开始显然就是个败笔”。 **你的牢骚是什么？** 在一个专门讨论个人牢骚的环节中，Shannon Zimmerman 对《华尔街日报》的免费 iPad 应用程序表示“赞扬”，该程序允许订阅者在早上通勤时下载报纸。James Early 则对电话推销员表达了他的“不满”，尤其是在他刚哄睡婴儿不久后就被打扰。Seth Jason 热情地“抨击”那些抱怨退还 TARP 资金的银行 CEO，认为他们只想归还那些“附带条件”的部分，同时悄悄保留其他公共救助。他宣称，现在“又到了举起干草叉和火把的时候了”。 **关注股票** 对于值得关注的股票，Shannon Zimmerman 推荐了航空航天和工业材料供应商 **Precision Cast Parts (PCP)**。尽管由于航空客运量下降和产量削减，其股价被严重打压，但其估值状况使其对长期、有耐心的投资者具有吸引力。James Early 建议考虑一种通用的 **债券 ETF**，并指出公司债/垃圾债与国债之间“过高”的收益率差，建议投资者利用这一优势但要警惕通货膨胀。Seth Jason 重点推荐了 **Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR)**，这是一个运营坎昆机场的墨西哥机场集团。尽管目前面临毒品战争和旅游业下降的挑战，Seth 强调其垄断地位、景气时期的强大现金生成能力以及 6% 的股息收益率，使其成为一个有吸引力的长期投资。

The Motley Fool Money panel, featuring Chris Hill, James Early, Seth Jason, and Shannon Zimmerman, covered a range of financial news, from corporate earnings and bankruptcies to investment strategies and personal grievances. **Financial Sector Earnings: A Mixed Bag** The week saw better-than-expected earnings from major financial players like Citigroup, Goldman, J.P. Morgan, and GE. However, James Early cautioned that companies might be "front-loading" good news to appear favorable to the government and taxpayers, and warned of potential future credit quality issues, especially given that such estimates are often manipulated. Seth Jason acknowledged Citigroup's improved Tier 1 capital ratio and successful cost-cutting, but highlighted alarming "horrors" in consumer credit: net credit loss ratios on credit cards hit 10%, two to three times the average, and are expected to worsen. Shannon Zimmerman added that "better than expected" is a relative term, as expectations in the sector have been systematically lowered over the past few years. While bank stocks are beaten down, Shannon noted a 60% rally in the financial sector over the last six weeks, driven by "hope and goodwill" that needs to be substantiated by fundamentals. Seth Jason further pointed out that Citigroup's current earnings are primarily going to preferred shareholders, leaving regular equity holders last in line. **Google's Revenue Dip** Google also reported better-than-expected earnings, but marked its first *quarterly* revenue decline compared to the previous quarter since its 2004 IPO. Shannon Zimmerman, a long-time skeptic of Google's growth story, attributed this to its deeply cyclical ad-sales model, which ebbs and flows with the overall economy. Despite this, she praised management's surprisingly effective cost-cutting measures during the downturn. Seth Jason humorously suggested Google hired a "financial guy" to handle the unpopular task of layoffs, allowing the "hippy-trippy" founders to avoid blame. **General Growth Bankruptcy: A Commercial Real Estate Warning** General Growth, the second-largest mall operator in the U.S., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. While the company claimed shoppers wouldn't notice, Seth Jason argued that debt holders taking control would inevitably lead to changes. He saw a silver lining for retailers, predicting good deals on rental spaces. More broadly, Seth framed the bankruptcy as an example of companies falling into the "same trap during the housing bubble" by over-borrowing and being unable to roll over debt. James Early highlighted the potential for this to be a "bad omen" for commercial real estate and, consequently, for smaller, local banks heavily exposed to that market. Shannon Zimmerman viewed it as a useful story to shift media attention from residential to commercial real estate. **eBay Spins Off Skype** eBay announced it would spin off its internet telephony company, Skype, with an IPO planned for next year. Shannon Zimmerman believed this move would make eBay more attractive to investors, calling Skype an "interesting play, badly played" by eBay, suggesting the e-commerce giant needs to focus on its core business. James Early reiterated his "manifesto" point that most acquisitions fail (four out of five, even from an investment banker's perspective), as managers tend to "grossly overestimate synergies." He concluded that Skype was "obviously a dud from the outset" for eBay. **What's Your Beef?** In a segment dedicated to personal grievances, Shannon Zimmerman offered "props" to the Wall Street Journal for its free iPad application, allowing subscribers to download the paper for their morning commute. James Early expressed his "beef" with telemarketers, especially after they interrupted him shortly after he got his infant son to sleep. Seth Jason voiced a passionate "beef" against bank CEOs who "whine" about returning TARP money, arguing they only want to return the portions with "strings attached" while quietly retaining other public handouts. He declared it "pitchforks and torches time again." **Stocks on the Radar** For stocks to watch, Shannon Zimmerman recommended **Precision Cast Parts (PCP)**, an aerospace and industrial materials supplier. Despite being "beaten down hard" due to declines in air traffic and production cuts, its valuation profile makes it attractive for long-term, patient investors. James Early suggested considering a generic **bond ETF**, noting the "obscene" yield spread between corporate/junk bonds and treasuries, advising investors to capitalize on it but watch for inflation. Seth Jason highlighted **Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR)**, a Mexican airport group that operates the Cancun Airport. Despite current challenges from drug wars and decreased tourism, Seth emphasized its monopoly status, strong cash generation in good times, and a 6% dividend yield, making it an attractive long-term play.