Motley Fool Money: 08.07.2009

以下是这段内容的中文翻译： 由克里斯·艾伦主持，特邀高级分析师詹姆斯·厄利、香农·齐默尔曼和蒂姆·汉森参与的最新一期《莫特利·富尔理财节目》涵盖了一系列经济和企业新闻。节目伊始，克里斯轻松地提到赛斯·贾森因庆祝第一个孩子的诞生而缺席。 播客首先讨论了周五超出预期的七月就业数据，该数据显示劳动失业率从9.5%降至9.4%，市场因此飙升。香农·齐默尔曼承认这是个好消息，指出失业人数减少是积极的，尤其考虑到经济对消费者支出的依赖。然而，他告诫不要过于乐观，提醒听众失业率仍接近10%，并且大多数经济学家预测到年底将达到这个数字。鉴于市场自三月低点以来已上涨40%，香农建议投资者要有所选择，敦促他们“培养自己的股票势利眼”。詹姆斯·厄利补充说情况并非那么简单，解释说失业数据有两种：官方的9.4% (U3) 以及显示24.7万个工作岗位流失的工资单数据，这表明实际情况并不像表面数字所暗示的那样强劲。他警告说，失业率可能在未来五年内保持在9%以上。克里斯·艾伦进一步强调了差于预期的零售数据，七月份同店销售额下降了5.1%，这进一步加剧了对消费者支出的担忧。詹姆斯·厄利还批评了“旧车换现金”项目是“一项浪费公帑的无用计划”，他认为该项目严重低估了价值并补贴了耗油量大的汽车，导致分配的资金在几天内就消耗殆尽。 接下来，专家组讨论了美国国际集团（AIG）这家大型保险公司，它80%由美国纳税人所有，报告了近两年来的首次季度盈利。消息发布后，其股价飙升了23%。詹姆斯·厄利给预期降温，将AIG称为“死而复生的股票”，称其在官方宣布*之前*就已经上涨了80%。他指出，尽管AIG公布了20亿美元的利润，但在收到的1800亿美元救助款中，它仍欠纳税人超过800亿美元的贷款。他解释说，利润主要来自“按市价计价的收益”（现有资产价值的改善），而不是核心运营实力的提升，核心运营实力实际上反而恶化了。厄利预测政府最终将拆分AIG，届时金融顾问将从拆分中获益最多。 对话随后转向科技行业，谷歌首席执行官埃里克·施密特辞去苹果公司董事会职务。香农·齐默尔曼称此举是不可避免的，鉴于谷歌和苹果之间日益激烈的竞争，尤其是在电脑和移动设备操作系统领域。詹姆斯·厄利对此表示赞同，称过去“敌人的敌人是朋友”的联盟（针对微软）已经结束，两家公司现在正走向正面冲突，尤其是在移动领域。蒂姆·汉森，一位自称的“苹果狂热者”，声明他更偏爱苹果，称谷歌对待股东的方式“令人憎恶”，原因包括其双层股权结构、在非核心项目上的自由支配支出以及期权重定价。然而，香农长期看好谷歌，押注其创新的广告销售和像Chrome OS这样的潜在突破。 接着出现了一条引人注目的新闻：中国处决了两名商人，因其诈骗投资者超过1.27亿美元。刚从中国回来的蒂姆·汉森回忆说他曾在2007年被告知，处决欺诈犯是中国的一种威慑策略。他解释说，中国旨在提升其国际地位（作为G2国家），并将此类措施视为执行公司治理的一种方式。尽管他承认一些中国股票可能被高估（尤其是房地产和银行），但他认为，随着投资者逃离美元，人民币可能会比其他货币更好地保值。詹姆斯·厄利对中国表示深切怀疑，理由是不可靠的会计方法（增长被计算在政府资金发放时，而非消费者购买时）、相互矛盾的省级和国家级数据，以及像有毒石膏板这样的人文故事。他指出，PowerShares黄金龙中国ETF今年上涨了62%，而标准普尔指数仅上涨了11%，这表明市场可能“目前有点过热了”。 最后，分析师们分享了他们对下周的“股票建议”： 1. **香农·齐默尔曼：斯普林特公司 (S)**。尽管今年迄今已上涨100%，但他认为低于4美元的价格是划算的，拥有可观的自由现金流，且相对于内在价值可能存在40%的折让。 2. **詹姆斯·厄利：沙索公司 (SSL)**。一家将煤炭转化为燃料并正在探索天然气制液化燃料的南非公司。这是一个有风险的大宗商品投资，可能随着经济复苏而飙升。 3. **蒂姆·汉森：NSTAR集团 (ESGR)**。一家百慕大公司，以低于公允价值的价格收购不良保险业务并将其清理出账，有可能从AIG的拆分中获益。 播客最后是一个幽默环节，给新晋父亲赛斯·贾森提供育儿建议，由蒂姆·汉森和史蒂夫（一位新婚人士，两人都不是父亲）提供了简单的建议，例如“别把孩子摔了”和“做好婴儿防范措施”。

The latest episode of Motley Fool Money, hosted by Chris Ellen and featuring Senior Analysts James Early, Shannon Zimmerman, and Tim Hanson, covered a range of economic and corporate news. Kicking off the show, Chris lightheartedly noted the absence of Seth Jason, who was celebrating the birth of his first child. The podcast began with a discussion of Friday's better-than-expected July jobs numbers, which saw the unemployment rate fall to 9.4% from 9.5%, sending markets soaring. Shannon Zimmerman acknowledged this as good news, noting that fewer people out of work is positive, especially given the economy's reliance on consumer spending. However, he cautioned against over-optimism, reminding listeners that the unemployment rate is still near 10% and most economists predict it will reach that figure by year-end. With the market up 40% since March lows, Shannon advised investors to be selective, urging them to "cultivate their inner stock snob." James Early added nuance, explaining there are two unemployment numbers: the official 9.4% (U3) and the payroll number, which indicated 247,000 jobs were lost, suggesting the situation isn't as robust as the headline figure implies. He warned that unemployment could remain above 9% for five years. Chris Ellen further highlighted worse-than-expected retail numbers, with same-store sales falling 5.1% in July, reinforcing concerns about consumer spending. James Early also critiqued the "Cash for Clunkers" program as a "boondoggle," which he felt grossly underpriced and subsidized gas guzzlers, with the allocated funds disappearing in days. Next, the panel discussed AIG, the giant insurer 80% owned by U.S. taxpayers, which reported its first quarterly profit in nearly two years. Shares surged 23% on the news. James Early tempered expectations, labeling AIG a "Lazarus of a stock" that was up 80% *before* the official announcement. He noted that while AIG posted a $2 billion profit, it still owes over $80 billion in taxpayer loans, out of $180 billion received. He explained the profit was primarily due to "mark-to-market gains" (improvements in existing asset values) rather than core operational strength, which actually worsened. Early predicted the government would eventually dismantle AIG, with financial advisors benefiting most from the spin-offs. The conversation then shifted to the tech sector, with Google CEO Eric Schmidt stepping down from Apple's board of directors. Shannon Zimmerman called this an inevitable move, given the escalating competition between Google and Apple in operating systems for both computers and mobile devices. James Early echoed this, stating that the former "enemy of my enemy" alliance (against Microsoft) was over, and the two companies were now on a collision course, especially in mobile. Tim Hanson, a self-proclaimed "Mac maniac," declared his preference for Apple, calling Google's shareholder treatment "abhorrent" due to its dual-class share structure, discretionary spending on non-core projects, and options repricing. Shannon, however, sided with Google for the long run, betting on its inventive ad sales and potential breakthroughs like the Chrome OS. A striking news item followed: China's execution of two business people for defrauding investors out of more than $127 million. Tim Hanson, just returned from China, recounted being told in 2007 that executing fraudsters was China's deterrent strategy. He explained that China aims to improve its global standing (as a G2 nation) and sees such measures as a way to enforce corporate governance. While acknowledging that some Chinese stocks may be overvalued (especially real estate and banking), he suggested the RMB might hold its value better than other currencies as investors flee the dollar. James Early expressed deep skepticism about China, citing untrustworthy accounting (where growth is counted when government funds are released, not when consumers buy), conflicting state and national figures, and human interest stories like toxic drywall. He noted the PowerShares Gold Dragon China ETF was up 62% this year versus 11% for the S&P, suggesting the market might be "a little bit rich right now." Finally, the analysts shared their "stock ideas" for the upcoming week: 1. **Shannon Zimmerman:** **Sprint Nextel (S)**. Despite being up 100% year-to-date, he sees it as a bargain below $4, with significant free cash flow and a potential 40% discount to intrinsic value. 2. **James Early:** **Sasol (SSL)**. A South African company that converts coal to fuel and is exploring natural gas to liquid fuel. A risky commodity play that could soar with economic recovery. 3. **Tim Hanson:** **NSTAR Group (ESGR)**. A Bermuda-based company that buys unwanted insurance lines for less than fair value and closes them out, potentially benefiting from AIG's breakup. The podcast closed with a humorous segment offering parenting advice to new father Seth Jason, with non-fathers Tim Hanson and Steve (a recent newlywed) offering simple tips like "Don't drop the baby" and "Baby-proof things."