Motley Fool Money: 11.13.2009

以下是这段内容的中文翻译： 由Chris Hill主持，高级分析师Seth Jason、James Early和Shannon Zimmerman参与的《Motley Fool Money》节目，涵盖了从市场展望到具体公司动态等一系列金融新闻。 节目首先讨论了沃伦·巴菲特和比尔·盖茨在哥伦比亚大学商学院的共同亮相。巴菲特宣布金融恐慌已经结束，股市已经触底；而盖茨则承认了过去的错误，但肯定了金融体系的内在实力。Shannon认为巴菲特的评论简直是在“撰写他自己的自传”，并质疑经济复苏是否会强劲到足以支撑当前的股市水平。当被问及未来5-10年会在微软和伯克希尔哈撒韦之间选择哪一个时，Seth倾向于伯克希尔，而James则因微软的估值而更看好它。 接下来，小组成员讨论了美联储的一项公告：禁止银行在未经客户明确同意的情况下，对ATM和借记卡交易收取透支费。这项明年生效的规定不包括支票或定期扣款。分析师指出，去年银行收取的透支费高达惊人的370亿美元。Seth赞扬此举对消费者有利，批评银行的“卑劣”行为，并建议简单的“余额不足”提示才是适当的技术解决方案。James认为这是美联储在试图宣示其监管权力，尽管有些迟了。Shannon幽默地评论说，这可能对银行“分析师”的影响会比对银行股本身的影响更大。 随后，话题转向了英特尔与AMD在2005年提起的反垄断诉讼达成12.5亿美元和解一事。该诉讼指控英特尔施压惠普和戴尔等公司限制AMD的销售。虽然AMD股价上涨了24%，但英特尔的股价却小幅下跌。Seth认为，这笔现金和解金对英特尔来说只是“九牛一毛”，而且未能解决该公司面临的来自纽约州总检察长和联邦贸易委员会的更大反垄断问题。James承认AMD拥有忠实的追随者，但他强调了英特尔的市场主导地位和消费者偏好。他补充说，英特尔可以说需要一个“病态、可怜的AMD”存在，以避免政府的彻底打击。 本周，在Toll Brothers、Beezer和Comstock发布积极报告后，房屋建筑商的股价上涨。Shannon指出，高端建筑商Toll Brothers表现出色是一个尤其积极的信号。然而，James却泼了一盆冷水，提到目前美国有三分之一的抵押贷款处于负资产状态，这让人对房屋建筑商的上涨势头能否持续，在没有解决这个问题的情况下，产生了疑问。Seth警告散户投资者不要急于买入房屋建筑商股票，强调需要专业的知识才能理解其复杂的运营和当地市场状况。 据报道，《花花公子》正考虑将其出售给Iconics Brand Group，因此登上了新闻。《花花公子》的股价在过去两年中下跌了75%，但在消息传出后上涨了40%以上。Seth将《花花公子》的困境归因于获取数字色情的便利性，这使得实体杂志的相关性降低。James指出，买家可能感兴趣的是“品牌”本身，而不是实际的色情业务，因为休·海夫纳仍持有公司70%的股份。Shannon开玩笑地将《花花公子》称为“色情界的诺曼·洛克威尔”。 最后，迪士尼报告称其第四季度利润增长18%，这主要得益于ESPN和迪士尼频道等有线电视网络，抵消了主题公园和消费者支出方面表现较弱的影响。迪士尼的股价今年以来上涨了约40%。Shannon与迪士尼有着个人渊源（他曾在Epcot工作并在那里认识了妻子），他指出该股过去12年表现相对平淡，尽管有股息。他将迪士尼视为美国整体经济的晴雨表，认为虽然公园和零售业务目前表现不佳，但它们最终的复苏，加上有线电视业务的强劲表现，使得迪士尼现在成为一只“有趣的股票”。James赞扬了迪士尼多元化的商业模式，使其即使在消费者待在家里时也能盈利。 在他们的“关注股票”环节中，Shannon重申了他对**迪士尼**的信心，理由是其作为经济晴雨表的地位以及公园和消费者部门的预期复苏。James选择了**英特尔**，提及其超过3%的股息，以及鉴于最近的负面消息，其可能具有吸引力的估值。Seth选择了**Fossil**，这是一只“隐藏的瑰宝”推荐股，他强调了其强劲的第三季度收益、成功的全球扩张，以及一位不领薪水、将自身利益与股东利益保持一致的CEO。

This episode of Motley Fool Money, hosted by Chris Hill with Senior Analysts Seth Jason, James Early, and Shannon Zimmerman, covered a range of financial news, from market outlooks to specific company updates. The show kicked off with a discussion on the joint appearance of Warren Buffett and Bill Gates at Columbia University's Business School. Buffett declared the financial panic over and the stock market to have hit bottom, while Gates acknowledged past mistakes but affirmed the financial system's underlying strength. Shannon viewed Buffett's comments as almost "writing his own autobiography," questioning if the economic recovery would be robust enough to support current market levels. Asked to choose between Microsoft and Berkshire Hathaway for the next 5-10 years, Seth leaned towards Berkshire, while James favored Microsoft due to its valuation. Next, the panel addressed the Federal Reserve's announcement to prohibit banks from charging overdraft fees on ATM and debit card transactions unless customers explicitly agree to them. This rule, effective next year, does not cover checks or recurring debits. Analysts noted that banks collected a staggering $37 billion in overdraft fees last year. Seth applauded the move as good for consumers, criticizing banks' "sleazy" practices and suggesting a simple "not enough money" notification is the appropriate technological solution. James saw it as the Fed trying to assert its regulatory authority, albeit belatedly. Shannon humorously remarked it would likely impact bank *analysts* more than bank stocks themselves. The conversation then shifted to Intel's $1.25 billion settlement of an antitrust lawsuit filed by AMD in 2005, which alleged Intel pressured companies like HP and Dell to limit AMD sales. While AMD shares jumped 24%, Intel's saw a slight dip. Seth argued the monetary settlement was "chicken feed" for Intel and didn't address the larger antitrust issues the company faces from the New York Attorney General and the FTC. James acknowledged AMD's loyal following but highlighted Intel's market dominance and consumer preference. He added that Intel arguably needs a "sickly, pathetic AMD" to exist to avoid complete government crackdown. Homebuilder stocks rallied this week following positive reports from Toll Brothers, Beezer, and Comstock. Shannon noted that Toll Brothers, an upscale builder, doing well was a particularly positive sign. James, however, introduced a dose of reality, mentioning that one-third of U.S. mortgages are currently underwater, raising doubts about the sustainability of a homebuilder rally without a cure for this issue. Seth cautioned individual investors against rushing into homebuilder stocks, emphasizing the specialized knowledge required to understand their complex operations and local market conditions. Playboy was in the news for reportedly considering selling itself to Iconics Brand Group. Playboy's stock, which had lost 75% of its value over two years, jumped over 40% on the news. Seth attributed Playboy's struggles to the ease of accessing digital porn, making the physical magazine less relevant. James pointed out that buyers are likely interested in the "brand" rather than the actual porn business, with Hugh Hefner still holding 70% of the company. Shannon jokingly referred to Playboy as the "Norman Rockwell of porn." Finally, Disney reported an 18% jump in fourth-quarter profits, largely driven by its cable networks like ESPN and the Disney Channel, which offset weaker performance in theme parks and consumer spending. Disney's shares are up around 40% for the year. Shannon, who has a personal connection to Disney (having worked at Epcot and met his wife there), noted the stock's relatively flat performance over the past 12 years, despite dividends. He sees Disney as a proxy for the overall U.S. economy, believing that while parks and retail are currently down, their eventual recovery, combined with strong cable performance, makes Disney an "interesting stock" now. James praised Disney's diverse business model, allowing it to profit even when consumers stay home. For their "stocks on the radar," Shannon reiterated his belief in **Disney** due to its economic proxy status and expected recovery in its park and consumer segments. James selected **Intel**, citing its above 3% dividend and potentially attractive valuation given recent negative news. Seth chose **Fossil**, a "Hidden Gems" recommendation, highlighting its strong Q3 earnings, successful global expansion, and a CEO who takes no salary, aligning his interests with shareholders.