Motley Fool Money: 09.05.2014

以下是内容的中文翻译： 本期《Motley Fool Money》节目涵盖了多方面经济和公司新闻，从美国就业报告开始，到国际市场和个股的投资机会结束。 **美国就业报告与宏观经济：** 节目首先深入分析了八月份的就业报告。报告显示美国经济新增14.2万个就业岗位，失业率降至6.1%。分析师Ron Gross指出，虽然失业率的下降是积极的信号，但新增就业人数“不尽人意”，终结了此前连续六个月新增就业超过20万的势头。他强调这“只是一个月份的数据”，不值得恐慌，尽管一些交易员希望这能促使美联储延长宽松政策。然而，Gross认为美联储不会被单一数据点所左右。 **公司新闻：** * **苹果iCloud安全丑闻：** 苹果原计划为iPhone 6和iWatch发布造势，但却被一场名人照片泄露丑闻抢了风头。首席执行官蒂姆·库克承认iCloud账户被入侵，但坚称苹果服务器未被攻破，暗示用户可能是网络钓鱼的受害者。小组成员讨论了库克面临的平衡难题，他既需要安抚用户，又要否认安全措施松懈。Matt Argusinger和Jason Moser讨论了这是否会影响销量（对普通用户而言可能性不大），以及对iWatch支付选项等新功能的影响，后者可能将更多个人数据置于设备上。他们指出苹果通常优先考虑易用性而非安全性，对消费者而言，责任通常由信用卡公司承担，而非消费者本人。iWatch被视为一款高风险产品，有可能定义可穿戴技术市场。 * **CVS Health品牌重塑与禁售烟草：** CVS Caremark宣布将把禁售烟草产品的计划提前一个月（至10月1日），并更名为CVS Health。公司股价创下历史新高。Jason Moser强调，烟草销售仅占CVS总销售额的1.5%，此举是符合其健康使命的象征性举动。然而，他提醒说，烟草消费者连带购买的商品（饮料、口香糖）占总销售额的14.5%，“外溢效应”可能成为一个隐忧。 * **百胜餐饮集团在华困境：** 百胜餐饮集团（肯德基、塔可钟、必胜客）股价下跌，此前其报告称受“劣质鸡肉”健康恐慌影响，中国市场同店销售额下降了13%。Matt Argusinger称这是“反复出现的‘非经常性’问题”，并指出不到两年前也发生过类似事件。他批评百胜的管理层未能解决供应商问题，指出公司总收入三年内停滞不前。中国市场对百胜至关重要，贡献了其一半以上的销售额，这些反复出现的问题正在给品牌和营销带来巨大挑战。 * **Twitter与NFL的合作：** Twitter推出了“NFL时间线”功能，旨在让用户更方便地关注橄榄球队。Jason Moser解释说，这是为了抢占利润丰厚的国内市场，该市场的每千次展示广告收入（RPM）远高于国际市场（国内3.47美元，国际0.61美元）。目标是增加国内活跃用户数量和参与度，类似于他们在世界杯期间的成功策略。 **听众信箱：** 小组成员回答了听众提问： * **在线研究：** 对于准确的研究，Ron Gross推荐了Fool.com、Yahoo Finance和Morningstar等信誉良好的财经网站。至关重要的是，他建议查阅SEC.gov上的“原始文件”（10-K、10-Q报告），以获取受法律强制执行的直接公司信息。他警告不要盲目相信在线评论，因为可能存在利益冲突。 * **房地产投资信托基金（REITs）：** Matt Argusinger讨论了REITs作为个人投资房地产的一种方式。优点包括强制分红（90%的收入），从而带来税收优惠。缺点包括需要警惕过度杠杆，并避免那些通过发行新股持续稀释股东权益的REITs。他举例提到了Retail Opportunity Investment Corp (ROIC)和Alexandria Real Estate Properties (ARE)。一个重要的警告：利率上升通常会对REITs产生负面影响。他还提醒说，极高的股息收益率（7-10%）通常表明是风险较高的杠杆证券。 * **柴油车投资：** 对于对日益增长的“清洁柴油”市场感兴趣的投资者，Jason Moser建议关注康明斯（Cummins, CMI），这是一家生产柴油发动机的稳健公司。他还提到了西港创新公司（Westport Innovations, WPRT），专注于天然气汽车，以及清洁能源燃料公司（Clean Energy Fuels, CLNE），专注于天然气燃料基础设施。他简要提到了特斯拉（Tesla, TSLA）最近宣布在内华达州建设超级工厂（Gigafactory），强调其有可能成为一家主要的电池公司。 **对Bill Mann（Motley Fool Funds）的采访：** Bill Mann讨论了地缘政治紧张局势下的全球投资机会。 * **俄罗斯：** 作为一名价值投资者，Mann将目前的机会比作约翰·邓普顿（John Templeton）在二战后欧洲恐慌时期进行的投资。尽管存在道德影响，他的团队现在对俄罗斯公司更感兴趣，重点关注那些公司治理更好的公司（即“不损害股东利益”）。他指出，虽然全球市场并未显著回应乌克兰等地缘政治热点，但俄罗斯等直接受影响的市场却有所反应，这为那些愿意在危机中投资的人创造了买入机会。 * **日本：** Mann最近访问日本时观察到，日本市场作为全球第二或第三大市场，在经历了长达20年的“沉睡”后，目前仍比峰值下跌了60%。公司治理是一个关键问题，董事会通常缺乏外部董事。然而，Mann认为日本“正在扭转局面”，政府正积极对抗通货紧缩，刺激经济增长，甚至引导养老基金进入股市。对于投资者而言，他建议通过共同基金或结构良好的ETF，特别是那些专注于日本小型股公司的基金，来获取投资敞口。 * **2014年展望：** Mann对市场表现感到惊喜，指出大部分涨幅来自于“估值扩张”（预期未来盈利增长），而不仅仅是当前盈利。他认为在“不受待见”的行业中存在机会，特别是金融领域中的小型银行，它们较少受到影响大型机构的巨额罚款。 **关注股 (Radar Stocks)：** * **Ron Gross：** Crocs（CROX），一个“深度价值机会”。他强调了黑石集团2亿美元的投资、正在进行的重组（关闭门店、裁员），并相信随着公司专注于其核心的洞洞鞋业务，未来有33%的上涨空间。 * **Matt Argusinger：** Tile Shop（TTS），一家家居装修零售商。尽管由于做空报告和房地产市场趋势，其股价腰斩，但高管最近买入了300-400万美元的股票，引起了他的注意。他称赞该公司丰富的产品种类和展厅体验。 * **Jason Moser：** Club Corp Holdings（MYCC），一家最近上市的公司，拥有高尔夫俱乐部。他认为其商业模式有潜力，规模对其盈利能力和降低会员成本至关重要。 节目还简要提到联邦贸易委员会（FTC）对谷歌处以1900万美元罚款，原因是儿童在未经父母许可的情况下进行应用内购买，这与苹果此前的和解类似，凸显了应用商店购买政策中持续存在的问题。

This episode of Motley Fool Money covers a range of economic and company-specific news, starting with the U.S. jobs report and concluding with investment opportunities in international markets and individual stocks. **U.S. Jobs Report and Macro Economy:** The show began by dissecting the August jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy adding 142,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.1%. Analyst Ron Gross noted that while the unemployment rate tick-down was positive, the job creation number was "not great," breaking a six-month streak of over 200,000 jobs created. He emphasized that it's "just a month" and didn't warrant panic, though some traders hoped it would lead to prolonged Fed easing. However, Gross believed the Fed wouldn't be swayed by a single data point. **Company News:** * **Apple's iCloud Security Scandal:** Apple's planned buzz for the iPhone 6 and iWatch unveiling was overshadowed by a celebrity photo scandal. CEO Tim Cook acknowledged iCloud accounts were compromised but insisted Apple's servers were not breached, suggesting users might have been victims of phishing. The panel discussed the balancing act for Cook, needing to reassure users while denying lax security. Matt Argusinger and Jason Moser debated whether this would impact sales (unlikely for average users) and the implications for new features like iWatch payment options, which could put more personal data on devices. They noted Apple often prioritizes usability over security, and for consumers, liability often rests with the credit card company, not them. The iWatch is seen as a high-stakes product, with the potential to define the wearable tech market. * **CVS Health Rebranding & Tobacco Ban:** CVS Caremark announced it would stop selling tobacco products a month earlier than planned (October 1st) and rebranded as CVS Health. Shares hit an all-time high. Jason Moser highlighted that tobacco sales represent only 1.5% of CVS's total, making it a symbolic move aligning with their health-focused mission. However, he cautioned that ancillary purchases made by tobacco customers (drinks, gum) account for 14.5% of total sales, and a "bleed over" effect could be a concern. * **Yum Brands' China Woes:** Yum Brands (KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut) saw shares fall after reporting a 13% decline in same-store sales in China due to a "bad chicken" health scare. Matt Argusinger called this a "recurring non-recurring problem," noting a similar issue less than two years prior. He criticized Yum's management for failing to resolve supplier issues, pointing out that total revenue hasn't budged in three years. China is crucial for Yum, accounting for over half its sales, and these recurring problems are creating a significant brand and marketing challenge. * **Twitter's NFL Partnership:** Twitter launched "NFL Timelines," a new feature aimed at making it easier to follow football teams. Jason Moser explained this is a play for the highly profitable domestic market, where ad revenue per thousand impressions (RPM) is significantly higher ($3.47) compared to international ($0.61). The goal is to grow the domestic active user base and engagement, similar to their successful World Cup strategy. **Fool Mailbag:** The panel addressed listener questions: * **Online Research:** For accurate research, Ron Gross recommended reputable financial sites like Fool.com, Yahoo Finance, and Morningstar. Crucially, he advised going to "source documents" on SEC.gov (10-K, 10-Q filings) for direct company information backed by legal enforcement. He cautioned against blindly trusting online commentary due to potential conflicts of interest. * **Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs):** Matt Argusinger discussed REITs as a way for individuals to invest in real estate. Pros include mandatory dividend payouts (90% of income) leading to tax benefits. Cons involve monitoring for over-leverage and avoiding REITs that constantly dilute shareholders by issuing new stock. He cited Retail Opportunity Investment Corp (ROIC) and Alexandria Real Estate Properties (ARE) as examples. A key caveat: rising interest rates typically negatively impact REITs. He also warned that very high dividend yields (7-10%) often indicate riskier leveraged securities. * **Diesel Car Investments:** For those interested in the growing "clean diesel" market, Jason Moser suggested looking at Cummins (CMI), a stable company building diesel engines. He also mentioned Westport Innovations (WPRT) for natural gas vehicles and Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE) for natural gas fueling infrastructure. He briefly noted Tesla's (TSLA) recent announcement of its Gigafactory in Nevada, highlighting its potential to become a major battery company. **Interview with Bill Mann (Motley Fool Funds):** Bill Mann discussed global investment opportunities amidst geopolitical tensions. * **Russia:** Mann, a value investor, likened current opportunities to John Templeton's post-WWII European investments, buying during panic. Despite moral implications, his team is more interested in Russian companies now, focusing on those with better corporate governance (i.e., "not stealing from shareholders"). He noted that while global markets haven't significantly reacted to geopolitical hotspots like Ukraine, directly involved markets like Russia have, creating buying opportunities for those willing to invest during crises. * **Japan:** Having recently visited, Mann observed Japan's market, the second or third largest globally, is still down 60% from its peak 20 years ago due to a prolonged "slumber." Corporate governance is a key issue, with boards often lacking outside directors. However, Mann believes Japan is "turning it around," with the government actively trying to combat deflation and stimulate economic growth, even by directing pension funds into the stock market. For investors, he suggested mutual funds or well-constructed ETFs, particularly those focused on Japanese small-cap companies, to gain exposure. * **2014 Outlook:** Mann expressed pleasant surprise at the market's performance, noting that much of the gains have come from "multiple expansion" (anticipating future earnings growth) rather than just current earnings. He sees opportunity in "hated" sectors, specifically smaller banks within financials, which are less exposed to the large fines impacting major institutions. **Radar Stocks:** * **Ron Gross:** Crocs (CROX), a "deep value opportunity." He highlighted a $200 million investment from Blackstone Group, ongoing reorganization (store closures, workforce cuts), and a belief in 33% upside as the company focuses on its core clog business. * **Matt Argusinger:** Tile Shop (TTS), a home improvement retailer. Despite its stock being cut in half due to short reports and housing market trends, executives have bought $3-4 million in stock recently, catching his attention. He praised their extensive product variety and showroom experience. * **Jason Moser:** Club Corp Holdings (MYCC), a recent IPO that owns golf clubs. He sees potential in their business model, where scale is crucial for profitability and lowering member costs. The show also briefly mentioned the FTC fining Google $19 million for children making in-app purchases without parental permission, similar to a previous Apple settlement, highlighting ongoing issues with app store purchase policies.