Quick Study: Can AI Predict Your Next Job?

Large language models can help you write a cover letter or spiff up your CV. But Professor Susan Athey wondered: What if the same technology could predict where your career is headed next? LLMs are trained to do something deceptively simple — predict the next word in a sequence of text. At the Golub Capital Social Impact Lab, Athey and her team explored whether that same engine could be pointed at a different target: a worker’s job history. After all, she says, “To an LLM, a sequence of jobs is a sequence of words.” The researchers took 40 years of worker career surveys, translated the data into written resumes, and used them to customize an open-source LLM. “It was able to predict a person’s next job better than any other model,” Athey says. The key was fine-tuning. Off-the-shelf LLMs know a lot, but they struggle with granular, customized predictions. “By fine-tuning the large language model,” Athey says, “the AI learns not just that an engineering manager is likely after being an engineer, but how the probability changes as the worker gains more experience.” The implications extend beyond employment. The same techniques could model customer journeys in e-commerce or sequences of medical tests and treatments — problems, Athey notes, that “people had never thought of as text problems.”

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