Tesla & SpaceX CRUSHING IT: Haters In Denial

以下是内容的中文翻译： 演讲者戏剧性地宣布了星舰第13次试飞成功，强调其“超轻柔溅落”，飞船“完好无损”，目前正被拖回澳大利亚。他声称这标志着“非凡的”进展，“没有重大挫折”，“每次飞行都有渐进式进步”，正在接近“快速、可靠的重复使用性”。他预测这将“极大地促进星链用户增长”（每次发射带宽增加20倍），并实现“天脑数据中心”在太空中的部署。 叙述随后转向批评那些所谓的“喷子和杠精”，他们据称正处于对SpaceX（和埃隆·马斯克）持续成功感到“否认”和“愤怒”的悲伤阶段，尤其是在近期股价波动的情况下。演讲者预计，当SpaceX成为一家“十万亿美元公司”时，他们将经历讨价还价、沮丧，最终达到“接受”阶段。 他转而谈到特斯拉，指出尽管其股价也下跌了，但在FSD（完全自动驾驶）和自动驾驶领域正在取得“有意义的进展”。他还挑战观众在评论区寻找那些“不开心、低地位的宅男宅女们”。 **特斯拉FSD和自动驾驶的关键更新：** * **欧洲FSD安全数据：** 特斯拉欧洲、中东和非洲报告称，在过去四个月中，FSD监督模式在五个欧盟国家的**6500万公里**行驶里程中，比人工驾驶**安全5.2倍**。 * 具体数据：自动紧急制动减少13.4倍，急加速减少9.2倍，急刹车减少7.1倍，急转向减少7.6倍。 * 这被认为是一个“重大里程碑”，证实了该软件在新大陆的能力。 * **北美FSD采用率：** 第二季度，在美国销售的新车中，FSD订阅的附带率超过**55%**。 * **FSD收入增长：** 随着FSD在全球推广和改进，特斯拉的FSD收入预计将“继续大幅增长”，因为它几乎是100%的利润。 * **机器人出租车服务（奥斯汀）：** 一则轶事报道了“奥斯汀机器人出租车可用性最好的一天”，看到了“27辆独特的车牌”（出租车）。**新增一辆无人监督车辆**，使奥斯汀的无人监督机器人出租车总数达到**55辆**。即使在高峰时段，可用性也很高，平均等待时间为15分钟，并且“使用率极高”。通过车牌视频还记录到了第57辆无人监督的特斯拉机器人出租车。 演讲者随后反思了自己的“乐观偏见”，表示他已经“接受”机器人出租车的自动驾驶进展比他预期的要慢。他提到自己对即将发布的20年特斯拉和SpaceX估值模型进行了“有意义的调整”，这些模型将很快在Patreon上发布，一旦发布，新会员的订阅价格将上涨。 **SpaceX人工智能的关键更新：** * **Grok 4.5 Build集成：** Grok 4.5 Build已“集成到Grok应用程序和Grok网站中”。这消除了之前“基于文本的界面”（他幽默地将其比作需要像自闭症患者那样专注才能使用的界面），取而代之的是“图形用户界面”。 * 预计这一改变将“极大地提升Grok build的使用率”，使其任何人都能用来构建网站、应用程序和游戏。 * Grok build被描述为“性价比最高”、“最具成本效益的智能”、“快得离谱”、“非常强大且称职”和“极其高效”。 * 用户可以将应用程序发布到`grok.me`域名或自己的域名，并将源代码导出到GitHub。 * **Cursor (SpaceX AI) 更新：** “Kimmy K3现已集成到Cursor中。” * 它在“Cursor基准测试中得分接近前沿水平”。 * 通过合作伙伴Fireworks Together和Base10，在美国提供“基于美国本土的推理服务”。 * “零数据保留也受支持。” 演讲者最后重申了他对那些忽视这些进展的“喷子和杠精”的不满，提醒观众Patreon价格上涨和即将发布的估值模型，然后推销了赞助商AG1。

The speaker begins by dramatically announcing the successful 13th test flight of Starship, highlighting an "ultra gentle splashdown" where the vehicle remained "intact" and is now being towed back to Australia. This, he claims, signifies "phenomenally well" progress with "no major setbacks" and "incremental progress with every flight," nearing "rapid, reliable reusability." He predicts this will unlock a "massive increase in Starlink user growth" (20 times more bandwidth per launch) and enable "Starmind data centers in space." The narrative then shifts to criticizing "haters and trolls" who are allegedly in the "denial" and "anger" stages of grief over SpaceX's (and Elon Musk's) continued success, especially given recent stock price fluctuations. The speaker anticipates they will move through bargaining, depression, and eventually "acceptance" when SpaceX is a "decatrillion dollar company." He transitions to Tesla, noting that despite its stock also being down, it's making "meaningful progress" in FSD and autonomy. He challenges viewers to check the comments for these "unhappy low-status basement dwellers." **Key Tesla FSD & Autonomy Updates:** * **European FSD Safety Data:** Tesla Europe, Middle East, and Africa reported FSD supervised has been **5.2 times safer than manual driving** over **65 million kilometers in five European Union countries** in the last four months. * Specific stats: 13.4 times less automatic emergency braking, 9.2 times less harsh acceleration, 7.1 times less harsh braking, 7.6 times less hard swerves. * This is considered a "major milestone" and confirms the software's capability in a new continent. * **North American FSD Adoption:** In Q2, the FSD attach rate for subscriptions on new vehicles sold in the US was over **55%**. * **FSD Revenue Growth:** As FSD rolls out globally and improves, FSD revenue for Tesla is predicted to "continue to increase meaningfully" as it's nearly 100% profit. * **Robo-taxi Service (Austin):** An anecdote reports "probably the best single day for robo taxi availability in Austin," with "27 unique plates" (taxis) seen. **One new unsupervised vehicle** was added, bringing the total to **55 unsupervised robo taxis** in Austin. Availability was high, even during rush hour, with average 15-minute wait times and "extremely high usage." The 57th unsupervised Tesla robo-taxi (via license plate footage) was also noted. The speaker then reflects on his own "optimism bias," stating he has reached "acceptance" that robo-taxi autonomy is slower than he expected. He mentions he's made "meaningful adjustments" to his upcoming **20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation models**, which will soon be released on Patreon, with price hikes for new members once they drop. **Key SpaceX AI Updates:** * **Grok 4.5 Build Integration:** Grok 4.5 build has been "integrated to the Grok app and the Grok website." This eliminates the previous "text-based interface" (which he humorously equates to needing "the tism") with a "graphical user interface." * This change is expected to lead to a "huge uplift in Grok build usage," making it accessible to anyone to build websites, apps, and games. * Grok build is described as "the best bang for buck," "most cost efficient intelligence," "fast as f**k," "very capable and competent," and "extremely efficient." * Users can publish apps to `grok.me` domains or their own, and export source code to GitHub. * **Cursor (SpaceX AI) Updates:** "Kimmy K3 is now in Cursor." * It scores "close to the frontier on Cursor bench." * Available on "US-based inference" with partners Fireworks Together and Base10. * "Zero data retention is also supported." The speaker concludes by reiterating his frustration with "haters and trolls" who ignore this progress, reminding viewers about the Patreon price increase and the upcoming valuation models, and then plugging AG1 as a sponsor.