Paypal to Stripe: You’re Going to Have to Do Better Than That

以下是内容的中文翻译： 在最新一期《Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing》节目中，主持人泰勒·克罗 (Tyler Crowe)、卢·怀特曼 (Lou Whiteman) 和马特·弗兰克尔 (Matt Frankel) 深入探讨了 PayPal 和波音的最新财报，并讨论了电动汽车 (EV) 市场以及 Lucid 的前景。 **PayPal 财报与收购前景** PayPal 股价在财报发布后上涨约 4%，卢·怀特曼将其形容为“表现不错”，强调这是一家“健康稳定的公司”。营收增长 5%，每股收益 (EPS) 超出预期，尽管同比略有下降。总支付额 (TPV) 增长 10%，其中 Venmo 对此增长贡献了显著的 14%。先买后付 (BNPL) 业务量也增长了 26%。尽管有这些积极指标，卢表示投资意愿不高，他认为 PayPal 是一个“个位数增长、但自由现金流充裕”的公司。该公司继续进行大规模股票回购，股本同比减少 10%，每年回购支出约 60 亿美元。马特·弗兰克尔指出 PayPal 本季度自由现金流高达 18.3 亿美元，并向投资者披露了三年增长计划。 讨论的一个关键点是围绕 Stripe 和私募股权公司 Advent International 可能提出的收购要约，该要约约为每股 60 美元，而 PayPal 当前的交易价格为 58 美元。卢认为这一报价过低，特别是考虑到在“未受影响”的情况下股价仅在 40 美元区间。他强调财报并未显示出迫使 PayPal 接受廉价交易的困境。马特指出 Venmo 具有货币化潜力，因为它拥有与 PayPal 相似的用户群，但目前许多交易都是免费的。他认为，释放 Venmo 的营收潜力，加上先买后付业务的增长，可能会加速 PayPal 的营收增长。卢怀疑目前的收购方由于其 50/50 的股权分配，无法大幅提高报价。PayPal 首席执行官恩里克·洛雷斯 (Enrique Lores) 表示，董事会愿意评估任何能为股东创造价值的途径，有报道称他们希望报价接近每股 70 美元，而机构投资者可能寻求 80 美元。卢总结道，如果没有更高的报价，PayPal 很可能会保持独立，作为一个“收益型公司”运营。 **波音的扭亏为盈与行业影响** 波音股价在业绩公布后也上涨约 4%，业绩“略好于预期”。尽管仍处于亏损状态，但这主要归因于新空军一号 (Air Force One) 合同等项目产生的费用。卢强调，民用航空部门 2.7% 的营业利润率是一个积极的惊喜，因为此前预计该部门将出现亏损。营收增长 8%，民用飞机交付量增长 14%，737 生产趋于稳定——这在近年来实属罕见。首席执行官凯利·奥特伯格 (Kelly Ortberg) 表示，“业务中的不确定性正在消退”。 尽管取得了进展，波音仍面临漫长的道路。卢指出，该公司背负着 450 亿美元的巨额债务，远高于 2019 年不到 100 亿美元的水平，他将其归因于疫情和 737 MAX 危机期间的融资。尽管他认为如果运营持续改善，该股被低估，但他警告称鉴于债务问题，不应急于投资。马特对此表示赞同，称市场尚未完全接受其扭亏为盈的说法，该股在过去一年仍处于下跌状态。然而，他指出了一些明显的改善迹象，包括美国联邦航空管理局 (FAA) 于 7 月 20 日恢复了波音的自我认证权限，这表明监管机构重新对其产生了信任。卢指出，企业价值终于回到了 2018 年的水平，但债务继续从股权持有人那里分流价值。 讨论随后转向了对供应商的下游影响。波音的民用飞机订单出货比为 1.4 倍，这预示着未来营收将增长。然而，卢和马特都对投资供应商持保留意见，原因在于其高估值（未来市盈率 40-50 倍）和现有的产能限制。尽管他们不认为增长会立即停止，但他们质疑现在是否是“最佳买入时机”。马特提到了通用航空 (GE Aerospace)、豪迈航空 (HowMet Aerospace) 和 TransDigm 作为估值较高的供应商，但他认为 Moog (读音 Moog) 以其目前的估值仍然有趣。 **电动汽车普及现状与 Lucid 的未来** 讨论最后以一封听众的邮件结束，邮件内容涉及美国电动汽车普及速度慢于欧洲，以及 Lucid 的未来。泰勒·克罗指出，他观察到海外电动汽车普及率明显更高。卢解释说，电动汽车仍处于早期技术阶段，充电的“摩擦”以及混合动力和更环保内燃机等可行替代方案，减缓了大众市场的普及速度。他强调，消费者无需完全转向电动汽车，也能节省燃油开支。 关于 Lucid，卢对其长期独立性持悲观态度，称“大多数汽车初创公司注定无法长期保持独立”。他预测 Lucid 可能找不到买家，并且在十年内不会是一家独立公司。马特表示赞同，他认为 Lucid 的生存可能通过收购实现，但普通股东可能面临严重的股权稀释（Lucid 股价自首次公开募股 (IPO) 以来已下跌 99%）。尽管承认 Lucid 拥有出色的产品和技术，但马特指出该公司“正在严重亏损”。 马特首选的电动汽车投资对象是通用汽车 (GM)，他称之为“无聊的策略”。他强调了通用汽车雄厚的财务实力来支持其电动汽车扩张，其作为美国电动汽车市场份额第二大持有者（仅次于特斯拉）的地位，以及来自 Supercruise 等技术带来的不断增长的软件收入流，这提高了利润率——而 Lucid 缺乏这一特点。他总结道，通用汽车在估值和财务稳定性方面具有优势，使其更有可能在长期内保持独立公司的地位。主持人还回顾了持续高油价如何可能促使美国消费者行为转向电动汽车，类似于 2014 年油价下跌如何在高油价时期之后抑制了混合动力汽车的销量。

On a recent episode of Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing, hosts Tyler Crowe, Lou Whiteman, and Matt Frankel delved into the latest earnings reports for PayPal and Boeing, alongside a discussion on the electric vehicle (EV) market and the prospects of Lucid. **PayPal's Earnings and Acquisition Prospects** PayPal's shares rose about 4% following its earnings report, which Lou Whiteman described as "fine," highlighting a "healthy, stable company." Revenue increased by 5%, and earnings per share beat estimates, though slightly down year-over-year. Total Payment Volume (TPV) was up 10%, with Venmo contributing a significant 14% to this growth. Buy Now, Pay Later volume also saw a 26% increase. Despite these positive indicators, Lou expressed little desire to invest, seeing PayPal as a "single-digit growth story with great free cash flow." The company continues substantial share buybacks, with the share count down 10% year-over-year, spending roughly $6 billion annually. Matt Frankel noted PayPal's impressive $1.83 billion in free cash flow for the quarter and a three-year growth plan outlined to investors. A key point of discussion revolved around the potential buyout offer from Stripe and private equity firm Advent International, which stood at around $60 per share, compared to PayPal's current trading price of $58. Lou argued this offer was too low, especially considering a "non-affected" price in the $40s. He emphasized that the earnings report showed no distress that would force PayPal to accept a bargain deal. Matt pointed out Venmo's potential for monetization, as it has a similar user base to PayPal but many transactions are currently free. He believes unlocking Venmo's revenue potential, combined with the growth of Buy Now, Pay Later, could accelerate PayPal's top-line growth. Lou doubted the current acquirers could significantly raise their offer due to their 50/50 ownership split. PayPal's CEO, Enrique Lores, indicated the board is open to evaluating any path that creates shareholder value, with reports suggesting they desire an offer closer to $70 per share, while institutional investors might seek $80. Lou concluded that without a higher offer, PayPal would likely remain independent, functioning as a "yield co." **Boeing's Turnaround and Industry Implications** Boeing's shares also climbed about 4% after its results, which were "slightly better than expected." While still posting a loss, it was largely attributed to charges from programs like the new Air Force One contract. Lou highlighted the commercial division's 2.7% operating margin as a positive surprise, as a loss was anticipated. Revenue grew 8%, and commercial deliveries were up 14%, with 737 production stabilizing—a rare occurrence in recent years. CEO Kelly Ortberg stated that "uncertainty in the business is going away." Despite the progress, Boeing still faces a long road. Lou noted the company's substantial $45 billion debt load, a stark increase from less than $10 billion in 2019, which he attributes to pandemic and 737 MAX crisis financing. While he believes the stock is undervalued if operations continue to improve, he cautioned against rushing to invest given the debt. Matt echoed this, stating the market hasn't fully bought into the turnaround, with the stock still down over the past year. However, he pointed to clear signs of improvement, including the FAA restoring Boeing's self-certification authority on July 20th, indicating renewed regulatory trust. Lou noted that the enterprise value is finally back to 2018 levels, but debt continues to divert value from equity holders. The discussion then shifted to the downstream impact on suppliers. Boeing's commercial booked-to-bill ratio was 1.4x, indicating future revenue growth. However, both Lou and Matt expressed reservations about investing in suppliers due to their high valuations (40-50x future earnings) and existing capacity constraints. While they don't foresee an immediate halt to growth, they questioned if it's the "greatest time to buy in." Matt mentioned GE Aerospace, HowMet Aerospace, and TransDigm as highly valued suppliers, while he still finds Moog (pronounced Moog) interesting at its current valuation. **The State of Electric Vehicle Adoption and Lucid's Future** The conversation concluded with an email from a listener regarding slow EV adoption in the US compared to Europe, and the future of Lucid. Tyler Crowe noted the significantly higher EV adoption rates he observes overseas. Lou explained that EVs are still early-generation technology, and the "friction" of recharging, combined with viable alternatives like hybrids and greener internal combustion engines, slows mass-market adoption. He stressed that consumers can already save on fuel without committing fully to EVs. Regarding Lucid, Lou was pessimistic about its long-term independence, stating, "most auto startups are destined to not be independent over time." He predicted Lucid might not find a buyer and wouldn't be an independent company in a decade. Matt concurred, suggesting Lucid's survival might come through acquisition, but common shareholders could face significant dilution (Lucid's stock is down 99% since its IPO). While acknowledging Lucid's great product and technology, Matt pointed out the company is "bleeding cash." Matt's preferred EV play is General Motors (GM), which he called a "boring approach." He highlighted GM's financial strength to fund its EV expansion, its position as the number two EV market share holder in the US (behind Tesla), and its growing software revenue stream from technologies like Supercruise, which boosts margins—a feature Lucid lacks. He concluded that GM offers advantages in valuation and financial stability, making it more likely to remain an independent company in the long term. The hosts also reflected on how sustained high oil prices could shift US consumer behavior toward EVs, similar to how falling oil prices in 2014 dampened hybrid sales after a period of high prices.