I'm buying SpaceX because I built a valuation model.

这位内容创作者表示，他们对理解并分享自己关于别人如何谈论和思考SpaceX、特斯拉以及其他埃隆·马斯克相关公司的想法和观点抱有浓厚兴趣。 他们透露，过去几个月一直致力于建立、微调、完善和修正一个他们个人使用的、预测SpaceX未来20年估值的模型。这个全面的模型是他们目前决定买入SpaceX股票的主要驱动力。发言人强调，他们的估值是基于自己对该公司未来二十年发展轨迹的最佳估计。 他们明确指出，外部意见——无论是来自金融分析师、“YouTube上的蠢货”还是财经媒体——都不会左右他们自己的结论。然而，他们认为将自己的模型预测与他人的预测进行比较，在智力上很有趣，也可以作为一种“直觉检验”。 一个重要的观察结果是，许多分析师对SpaceX业务各个方面的长期预测，往往*高于*发言人自己的基准估计。尽管如此，发言人通常不会改变自己的估计。他们将此与过去在特斯拉上的经历进行对比，当时他们自己的估计“远超”许多分析师的预测，这让他们幽默地反思，自己是否“变得极其保守了”。 最终，发言人发现审视他人对这些公司的假设和思维过程是“引人入胜的”，这并不是为了改变自己的模型，而纯粹是为了获得智力上的启发。

The speaker, a content creator, expresses a strong interest in understanding and sharing their thoughts and opinions on what others are saying and how people are thinking about SpaceX, Tesla, and other Elon Musk-related companies. They reveal having spent the last few months dedicated to building, fine-tuning, refining, and adjusting a personal 20-year SpaceX valuation model. This comprehensive model is the driving force behind their current decision to buy SpaceX. The speaker emphasizes that their valuation is based on their own best estimates for the company's trajectory over the next two decades. They explicitly state that external opinions—whether from financial analysts, "idiots on YouTube," or finance media—do not dictate their own conclusions. However, they find it intellectually interesting and useful as a "gut check" to compare their model's predictions with those of others. A significant observation made is that many long-term analyst estimates for various elements of SpaceX's business are often *above* the speaker's own base case estimates. Despite this, the speaker typically does not change their own estimates. They contrast this with past experiences with Tesla, where their own estimates were "way over" many analyst estimates, leading them to humorously question if they have "turned over a new extremely conservative leaf." Ultimately, the speaker finds it "fascinating" to examine other people's assumptions and thought processes regarding these companies, not to alter their own modeling, but purely for the intellectual insight it provides.