Markets Weekly July 18, 2026

以下是内容的中文翻译： 上周金融市场出现了显著动荡，主要指数失去动能并跌破关键移动平均线。整体下行归因于两大主要因素：中东冲突的再度爆发以及人工智能（AI）领域内的深刻重新评估。 **宏观经济与美联储言论** 尽管市场表现不佳，但来自主要银行的潜在经济数据却呈现出相对稳定的态势。美国银行等报告称，消费者支出同比增长5%，信贷质量稳定，不良贷款冲销或贷款损失准备金没有显著增加。摩根大通也表达了同样观点，称他们没有观察到“K型经济”的迹象——即高收入者蓬勃发展而其他人举步维艰的局面，这表明了经济的普遍稳定。投行部门，特别是高盛的股票业务，表现出色，受益于首次公开募股（IPO）活动的增加、狂热的交易以及杠杆头寸——这预示着金融市场的过度繁荣。 美联储的沟通最初保持鹰派基调，主席鲍威尔再次强调了物价稳定。更重要的是，理事沃勒表示，如果核心通胀数据火爆，他将不排除7月加息的可能性。然而，核心CPI数据的公布，显示出出人意料的零月度环比增长，这有效地消除了7月加息的可能性。尽管市场仍预计今年将再加息一次，可能在12月，但其时机将取决于数据，并可能受到政治考量（例如避免在中期选举前9月加息）的影响。 **市场遭遇两大冲击** 1. **中东冲突再度爆发：** 地缘政治紧张局势急剧升级，中东冲突意外再度爆发，特别是涉及美国和伊朗。在之前的停火之后，这场全面袭击引发了对全球石油供应的担忧，特别是考虑到美国战略石油储备（SPR）的枯竭以及欧洲炼油厂持续存在的问题，这些问题影响了柴油和航空燃油等成品油。现货油价立即上涨，反映了这些担忧。专家甚至表示，美国的行动表明其正在为潜在的地面入侵做准备，预示着局势的重大升级，可能严重影响全球市场和经济。 2. **新的“深层寻求时刻”（AI交易暴跌）：** 第二个，也是可以说影响更大的市场冲击，来自AI交易的显著暴跌。在数月来推动市场上涨之后，尤其在韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）中表现明显，该板块出现了急剧调整。尽管SK海力士、阿斯麦（ASML）和台积电等主要参与者普遍发布了关于AI强劲需求的利好消息，但这一下跌仍然发生，这表明想买入的投资者早已完成操作，且往往使用了杠杆。有报道称，超过一百万个韩国交易账户可能面临追加保证金通知。 此次下跌的催化剂是一个“新的深层寻求时刻”（new deep seek moment）：中国公司月之暗面（Moonshot）宣布推出开源大模型Kimmy。据报道，Kimmy在性能上可与Cloud和ChatGPT等领先的前沿模型相媲美。这种开源大模型直接挑战了封闭式AI系统的商业模式和估值，后者依赖于订阅费和专有控制。它的可用性使公司能够在自己的硬件上运行先进的AI，解决了对数据隐私、安全以及依赖美国AI提供商可能带来的地缘政治脆弱性的关键担忧。尽管通过将先进AI商品化并全球范围内的技术获取扁平化，这从根本上对全球生产力是利好，但这一发展可能会削弱美国在科技领域的“护城河”优势，并可能降低对现在盈利能力下降的封闭式模型所需的美国制造AI芯片的需求。 展望未来，市场面临持续的地缘政治不确定性以及期权相关活动支持的减少，这促使人们对未来一周保持谨慎。

This past week saw significant turbulence in financial markets, with major indexes losing momentum and breaking key moving averages. The overall downturn was attributed to two main factors: a resurgence of conflict in the Middle East and a profound re-evaluation within the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector. **Broader Economy and Fed Speak** Despite the market's struggles, underlying economic data from major banks presented a relatively stable picture. Banks like Bank of America reported healthy consumer spending, up five percent year-over-year, and stable credit quality with no notable increase in charge-offs or loan loss reserves. JPMorgan Chase echoed this sentiment, stating they observed no evidence of a "K-shaped economy" where high earners thrive while others struggle, suggesting broad economic stability. Investment banking divisions, notably Goldman Sachs' equities segment, saw spectacular performance, benefiting from increased IPO activity, frantic trading, and leveraged positions—a sign of exuberance in financial markets. Federal Reserve communication initially maintained a hawkish tone, with Chairman Powell re-emphasizing price stability. More significantly, Governor Waller expressed openness to a July interest rate hike, contingent on a hot core inflation print. However, the release of core CPI data, which showed a surprisingly cold zero percent month-over-month increase, effectively eliminated the probability of a July hike. While the market still anticipates one more hike this year, likely by December, its timing will be data-dependent and potentially influenced by political considerations, such as avoiding a September hike before midterm elections. **Two Punches to the Market** 1. **Resurgence of Middle Eastern Conflict:** Geopolitical tensions escalated dramatically with the unexpected resurgence of conflict in the Middle East, specifically involving the US and Iran. This full-scale assault, following a previous ceasefire, raised concerns about global oil supply, especially given the US's depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and ongoing refinery issues in Europe impacting refined products like diesel and jet fuel. Rising spot oil prices immediately reflected these fears. Experts even suggested US actions indicated preparations for a potential ground invasion, signaling a major escalation that could severely impact global markets and the economy. 2. **New Deep Seek Moment (AI Trade Tumble):** The second, and arguably more impactful, market punch came from a significant tumble in the AI trade. After months of driving market gains, particularly visible in South Korea's Kospi index, the sector saw a sharp correction. This occurred despite broadly positive news from key players like SK Hynix, ASML, and TSMC regarding strong AI demand, suggesting that investors who wanted to buy had already done so, often with leverage. Reports indicated over a million Korean trading accounts might have faced margin calls. The catalyst for this downturn was a "new deep seek moment": the announcement of Kimmy, an open-weight AI model from Chinese company Moonshot. Kimmy is reported to be comparable in performance to leading frontier models like Cloud and ChatGPT. This open-weight model directly challenges the business models and valuations of closed AI systems, which rely on subscription fees and proprietary control. Its availability allows companies to run advanced AI on their own hardware, addressing crucial concerns about data privacy, security, and potential geopolitical vulnerabilities associated with relying on American AI providers. While fundamentally bullish for global productivity by commoditizing advanced AI and flattening technological access worldwide, this development could reduce the "moat" of US tech leadership and potentially decrease demand for US-made AI chips from now less-profitable closed models. Looking ahead, the market faces continued geopolitical uncertainties and less support from options-related activity, prompting a call for caution in the coming week.