Yahoo Finance Live: Daily Market Coverage - July 13, 2026 9AM-11AM (ET)

以下是雅虎财经早间简报讨论的中文摘要，包括提及的所有新闻和事实： **主持人：** 朱莉·海曼 (Julie Hyman)、亚当·夏皮罗 (Adam Shapiro)（AI Invest 执行主编兼雅虎财经 S4A 节目主持人） **一、SK 海力士和芯片股的波动性** * **最初的兴奋情绪消退：** 上周围绕 SK 海力士在美国上市的兴奋情绪已经消退。 * **韩国创纪录下跌：** 该股在韩国交易中经历了 15% 的“创纪录下跌”，朱莉·海曼对此感到惊讶，因为该股通常波动较大。 * **下跌原因：** 一家韩国券商的报告预测 SK 海力士第二季度营业利润将比市场普遍预期低 8%。 * **高带宽内存（HBM）：** 尽管 HBM 是 SK 海力士（英伟达供应商）的优势，但其价格涨幅不如其他组件，影响了盈利能力。 * **财报预期：** SK 海力士定于 7 月 29 日公布第二季度财报。虽然仍预计将实现 60.4 万亿韩元的“巨额营业利润”，但市场普遍预期更高，为 65 万亿韩元，这导致“在财报公布前就感到失望”。 * **更广泛的 AI/芯片交易主题：** 这种情况反映了 AI/芯片股票和超大规模企业（hyperscalers）的普遍波动性，人们开始质疑“真实价值”。亚当提到一个“德拉吉报告”(Drudge Report) 头条称“AI 无用”（但他反驳说 AI 有用但会犯错）。 * **杠杆 ETF：** 这些 ETF 放大股票波动，导致不成比例的涨跌，并且每日重新校准可能导致收盘时抛售。 * **韩国市场担忧：** 一些韩国议员将他们的股市称为“赌场”，因为其波动性。 * **保证金债务：** 韩国的巨额保证金债务（6 月份为 38 万亿韩元，即借入 240 亿美元用于投资）进一步放大了市场波动，并造成了与基本面的“脱节”。 * **产能转移：** SK 海力士已将产能转移到“普通 DRAM 内存”，因为在某些情况下，DRAM 内存的利润更高，且需求强劲。 * **股票表现背景：** * 韩国 Kospi 指数自 6 月 22 日以来下跌 25%（处于熊市），但今年仍上涨 62%。 * SK 海力士本身较其高点下跌 38%，但今年仍上涨 180%，过去一年涨幅更大。 * **分析师引述：** 彭博社援引一位分析师的话称，SK 海力士“正在经历多巴胺冲刺后的宿醉”。 * **波动性增加：** 施瓦布的凯文·戈登指出，今年 Kospi 指数的日波动幅度比金融危机期间更大，部分原因是杠杆和美国期权市场。 * **散户投资者渠道：** SK 海力士的 ADR 为散户投资者提供了芯片领域另一个高增长股。 **二、财报季展望** * **高预期：** 银行业将于明天开始公布财报，市场对标普 500 指数收益的预期很高且还在上升。 * **FactSet 估计：** FactSet 预计标普 500 指数收益增长率为 23.6%。 * **可持续增长问题：** 亚当质疑每个季度 20% 以上的收益增长是否可持续，指出平均水平通常在 8% 左右。 * **科技和能源驱动：** 大部分增长来自科技，但能源也在取得收益并上调预期。 * **业绩指引策略：** 公司通常会设定较低的业绩指引，以确保能够“超出”预期。 * **关键关注点：** 财报将阐明超大规模企业（hyperscaler）的支出及其投资回报率 (ROI)，这对于 AI 交易至关重要。 * **市场驱动力：** 预计财报将继续推动市场在今年年底前走高。 **三、经济数据和美联储政策** * **地缘政治事件：** 市场在很大程度上摆脱了地缘政治事件的影响，例如美国/伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的局势，这与战争刚开始时不同。油价在 70-71 美元左右，低于 100 美元以及此前预测的 200-250 美元，因为世界正在学会规避该海峡。 * **美联储发言：** 本周将有多位美联储官员发表讲话，包括杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周二和周三的汉弗莱·霍金斯听证会上作证。 * **AI 通胀：** 约翰·威廉姆斯上周提到了“AI 通胀”，预计将有更多相关评论。 * **CPI 辩论：** * 杰伊·哈特菲尔德 (Jay Hatfield，InfraCap) 预测 CPI 将很快出现负值，并预计美联储今年将降息，到 2027 年中期将有三次降息。 * 穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安 (Mohamed El-Arian)、高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 和瑞银 (UBS) 预计美联储今年将“维持利率不变”。 * 美联储可能会通过工作组或资产负债表调整来“拖延”，而不是改变利率。 * **美联储沟通：** 美联储提供的直接指导越来越少，鲍威尔经常说“不要听我的，看数据”。 * **内存芯片价格：** 这些已经体现在 PPI 和 CPI 数据中。 * **AI 广告：** Intuit 机构评论表明“AI 广告”有所增加，因为 AI 开发商上市并专注于用户增长，这可能使 Meta 等平台受益。 * **消费者信心：** * 密歇根大学消费者信心调查达到“历史新低”。 * 《华尔街日报》的一篇文章质疑数据收集，认为可能存在缺陷或偏向于对现任政府不满的民主党人。 * 然而，该调查负责人坚持认为人们 *确实* 感到“沮丧”，理由是物价高企。 * 价格示例：汽油在 6 月份出现了“顺风”，但托儿所等其他服务价格“高得离谱”。一些食品，如鸡蛋（2.99 美元/打）和 Rao's 意面酱（8 美元）价格很高但未达到峰值。 * “感受不是事实”——尽管情绪低落，但美国银行 6 月份数据显示消费者支出同比增长 6.3%，是 2022 年 4 月以来最强劲的增长。 * **AI 工作：** 与普遍看法相反，做出重大 AI 声明的公司在两年后增加了 10% 的招聘。 * **银行财报的重要性：** 银行财报对于了解贷款损失准备金、信贷健康状况和违约率至关重要，提供了关于消费者的“重要数据”。 **四、票房和电影业** * **真人版《莫阿娜》：** 真人版《莫阿娜》表现不佳，“成绩不理想”。 * **旧 IP 与新 IP：** 朱莉最初认为这表明“旧 IP 不再奏效”，但指出今年票房最高的电影包括成功的旧 IP，如《超级马里奥银河》和《玩具总动员》。“迈克尔”（迈克尔·杰克逊）是对一个旧故事的新演绎，《冰霜星球》（Project Hail Mary）是图书改编，而《一种痴迷》（An Obsession）是来自互联网的新 IP。 * **观众动机：** 似乎人们需要强烈的动机或“非常好的”理由才能去电影院。 * **消费者反应：** 对《莫阿娜》预告片的评论表达了失望（“他们为什么要搞砸一部好作品？”）。孩子们，比如朱莉的五岁孩子，更喜欢卡通动画版而不是真人翻拍。 * **真人翻拍趋势：** 亚当和朱莉质疑耗资巨大的卡通真人翻拍趋势，指出它们“屡屡失败”。 * **好莱坞的成功：** 尽管这些失败，好莱坞正在经历“多年来最好的一年”，这意味着成功来自其他类型的电影。 * **即将上映的大片：** 《奥德赛》预计将成为一部大片，将于本周五上映，尽管有一些抱怨。 * **内容为王：** 讨论总结指出电影行业“内容仍然为王”，强调需要高质量的素材。 * **AI 在电影中的应用：** 有人猜测 AI 创作电影的未来，将其与动画电影进行比较，并指出低成本电影（例如，用 iPhone 拍摄）也能成为大片。

Here's a summary of the Yahoo Finance Morning Brief discussion, including all news and facts mentioned: **Hosts:** Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro (AI Invest Managing Editor and Yahoo Finance's in S4A) **I. SK Hynix and Chip Stock Volatility** * **Initial Excitement Faded:** The excitement around SK Hynix's U.S. listing last week has faded. * **Record Drop in Korea:** The stock experienced a 15% "record drop" in Korean trading, which surprised Julie Hyman given the stock's typical swings. * **Reason for Drop:** A report from a South Korean brokerage firm predicted SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit would trail consensus expectations by 8%. * **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM):** While HBM is an advantage for SK Hynix (supplier to NVIDIA), its price is not rising as much as other components, impacting profitability. * **Earnings Expectations:** SK Hynix is set to report Q2 earnings on July 29th. While a "blockbuster huge operating profit" of 60.4 trillion won is still expected, the street's expectation was higher at 65 trillion won, leading to "disappointment before we get to the earnings." * **Broader AI/Chip Trade Theme:** The situation reflects a broader theme of volatility in AI/chip stocks and hyperscalers, with people questioning "real value." Adam mentioned a "Drudge Report" headline saying "AI doesn't work" (which he refutes, stating AI works but has mistakes). * **Leveraged ETFs:** These ETFs amplify stock movements, causing disproportionate swings and daily recalibrations that can lead to selling at the close. * **South Korean Market Concerns:** Some South Korean lawmakers have called their stock market a "casino" due to volatility. * **Margin Debt:** Significant margin debt in South Korea ( $38 trillion, or $24 billion borrowed to invest, in June) further magnifies market moves and creates "disconnections" from fundamentals. * **Capacity Shift:** SK Hynix has shifted capacity to "normal DRAM memory" as it's yielding higher margins in some cases and seeing strong demand. * **Stock Performance Context:** * The Korean Kospi is down 25% (in a bear market) since June 22nd, but still up 62% this year. * SK Hynix itself is down 38% from its highs, but still up 180% this year and much more over the past year. * **Analyst Quote:** Bloomberg quoted an analyst saying SK Hynix is "trading through the hangover after the dopamine rush." * **Increased Volatility:** Kevin Gordon of Schwab noted that daily swings in the Kospi this year are broader than during the financial crisis, partly due to leverage and the U.S. options market. * **Retail Trader Access:** SK Hynix's ADR offers retail traders another high-flyer in the chip space. **II. Earnings Season Outlook** * **High Expectations:** Banks begin reporting tomorrow, and expectations for S&P 500 earnings are high and rising. * **FactSet Estimate:** FactSet projects S&P 500 earnings growth at 23.6%. * **Sustainable Growth Question:** Adam questioned if 20%+ earnings growth quarter after quarter is sustainable, noting the average is typically around 8%. * **Tech and Energy Driven:** Most of the growth is from tech, but energy is also seeing gains and rising revisions. * **Guidance Strategy:** Companies typically set low guidance to ensure they "beat" estimates. * **Key Focus:** Earnings will clarify hyperscaler spending and their return on investment (ROI), which is crucial for the AI trade. * **Market Driver:** Earnings are expected to continue powering the markets higher into the end of the year. **III. Economic Data and Fed Policy** * **Geopolitical Events:** Markets are largely shaking off geopolitical events like the U.S./Iran situation over the Strait of Hormuz, unlike when the war began. Oil prices are around $70-71, down from $100 and previous calls for $200-250, as the world is learning to circumvent the Strait. * **FedSpeak:** A lot of Fed officials will be speaking this week, including Jerome Powell during the Humphrey Hawkins testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. * **AI Inflation:** John Williams mentioned "AI inflation" last week, and more commentary on this is expected. * **CPI Debate:** * Jay Hatfield (InfraCap) is predicting a negative CPI print soon and expects the Fed to cut rates this year, with three cuts through mid-2027. * Mohamed El-Arian, Goldman Sachs, and UBS expect the Fed to keep rates "flat" this year. * The Fed may "kick the can" with task forces or balance sheet adjustments instead of rate changes. * **Fed Communication:** The Fed is providing less direct guidance, with Powell often saying "don't listen to me, watch the data." * **Memory Chip Prices:** These are already showing up in PPI and CPI numbers. * **AI Advertising:** Intuit institutional commentary suggested an increase in "AI advertising" as AI developers go public and focus on user growth, potentially benefiting platforms like Meta. * **Consumer Sentiment:** * The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey hit a "record low." * A Wall Street Journal story questioned the data collection, suggesting it might be flawed or biased towards Democrats who are feeling worse about the current administration. * The survey director, however, maintains that people *are* feeling "lousy," citing high prices. * Examples of prices: Gasoline saw a "tailwind" in June, but other services like daycare are "astronomical." Some grocery items like eggs ($2.99/dozen) and Rao's pasta sauce ($8) are high but not at peak. * "Feelings are not fact" – despite sentiment, BofA data for June showed consumer spending up 6.3% year-over-year, the strongest since April 2022. * **AI Jobs:** Contrary to popular narrative, companies making big AI pronouncements have increased hiring by 10% two years later. * **Bank Earnings Importance:** Bank earnings will be crucial for insights into loan loss provisions, credit health, and default rates, providing "important data" on the consumer. **IV. Box Office and Film Industry** * **Live-Action Moana:** The live-action Moana performed poorly, not doing "great." * **Old IP vs. New IP:** Julie initially thought this indicated "old IP isn't working," but noted that top movies this year include successful old IP like Super Mario Galaxy and Toy Story. "Michael" (Michael Jackson) is a new twist on an old story, Project Hail Mary is a book adaptation, and "An Obsession" is new IP from the internet. * **Audience Motivation:** It appears people need a strong motivation or a "really good" reason to go to the theater. * **Consumer Reaction:** Comments on the Moana trailer expressed disappointment ("Why did they mess up something great?"). Children, like Julie's five-year-old, prefer animated versions over live-action remakes of cartoons. * **Live-Action Remake Trend:** Adam and Julie questioned the trend of costly live-action remakes of cartoons, noting they "keep failing." * **Hollywood's Success:** Despite these failures, Hollywood is having its "best year they've had in a long time," implying success comes from other types of films. * **Upcoming Blockbuster:** "Odyssey" is expected to be a blockbuster, releasing this Friday, despite some complaints. * **Content is King:** The discussion concluded that "content is still king" in the film industry, emphasizing the need for good quality material. * **AI in Film:** Speculation arose about the future of AI-created films, comparing them to animated films and noting that low-budget films (e.g., shot on iPhones) can become blockbusters.