Why the tech workforce is quietly splitting in two | Annual AI sentiment survey (Noam Segal)
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Lenny Rachitsky 邀请了他的前研究伙伴 Noam Siegel 共同讨论他们第二届年度科技工作者情绪调查的结果。这项雄心勃勃的调查旨在成为同类中规模最大的，它探讨了科技专业人士对他们的工作、人工智能、裁员、倦怠和职业未来的感受，揭示了行业内发生的深刻变化。
调查中出现的一个核心主题是，关于人工智能的影响，**科技工作者群体的两极分化**。大约一半的科技工作者感到被人工智能“增强”（amplified），他们的能力得到提升，并感到兴奋。然而，另一半则感到被“重新定义”（redefined）、“动摇”（destabilized）或“削弱”（diminished）。这种分化不仅仅是传闻，而是一种“巨大影响”（outsized impact），它与工作满意度、乐观情绪和倦怠的几乎所有其他衡量指标都密切相关。四种典型状态描述了这些感受：“充满活力”（Energized，41%）、“矛盾”（Conflicted，35%）、“迷失方向”（Disoriented，12%）和“愤懑”（Resentful，12%），这展现了体验的广泛性。
调查揭示了一个显著且令人担忧的趋势：**倦怠感正在飙升**，在短短一年内从44.7%上升到54.7%，而**乐观情绪正在下降**，从54.8%降至48.7%。尽管许多人报告说工作乐趣很高，但这仍然发生了，这是一种被称为“微笑式疲惫”（smiling exhaustion）的现象——人们对人工智能的能力感到兴奋，但却被无休止的节奏和要求所压垮。科技工作者的主要担忧并非因人工智能而失业，而是“在薪资不变的情况下，被期望做更多工作”以及“不可持续的节奏”。
关于**人工智能对工作质量和生产力的影响**，97.2%的受访者认为人工智能让他们在工作中表现得“更好”。然而，深入探究揭示了一个令人不安的现实：“更好”通常意味着“做得更多更快，但并不更好”。许多人报告说工作质量下降，并出现了令人担忧的“认知腐蚀”（cognitive rot）现象，即过度依赖人工智能削弱了他们的批判性思维和判断力。这表明了一种权衡：产量的增加是以牺牲智力投入和工作质量为代价的。
也许最引人注目的发现之一是对这个问题的回答：**“你会向现在进入这个行业的人推荐你的职位吗？”** 在所有职位中，包括销售、产品经理、运营、工程，尤其是设计师和研究人员，答案都是响亮的“不”。类似于NPS（净推荐值）的得分对每个职能部门来说都是负数，这表明一种普遍的看法：尽管现有员工可能正在“池子里游泳”，但他们不会建议其他人跳进来。这种不情愿在设计师和研究人员中最为明显，他们也感到最受人工智能的动摇。数据分析师也高度担心人工智能导致的就业岗位流失。
**科技领域最快乐的人是创始人以及在小型公司工作的人。** 创始人一直报告最高的乐观情绪和最低的倦怠感，尽管他们自己也未必会向他人推荐自己的道路。存在一种明显的线性相关性：随着公司规模的增大，乐观情绪下降，而倦怠感、对裁员的担忧以及不愿推荐自己职位的意愿都显著增加。
调查还再次强调了**管理者**的关键作用。高效的管理者与更高的工作乐趣和更低的倦怠感密切相关，突显了他们对员工福祉的深远影响。然而，只有大约25%的管理者被评为“高效”，其中数据/分析和设计领域的管理者被评为效率最低。这强调了需要加大对管理者培训和支持的投入。
最后，当被要求描述**科技行业的现状**时，回应汇聚成一个混乱的词云，其中包含“变化”、“混乱”、“速度”、“兴奋”、“炒作”、“不稳定”和“困惑”等词语。情感分析显示，正面（37%）和负面（37%）描述几乎平分秋色，26%为中性，这表明这是一个深刻矛盾且前所未有的时代。
播客以**给员工和领导者的建议**作为结尾。建议员工深入专注于特定的人工智能应用，而不是试图成为通才；关注“薪资不变但工作量增加”的压力（即“挤压”效应）；投入与管理者的关系；考虑小型公司；并寻求指导。对于领导者而言，主要建议是大力投资管理者；管理期望，避免不可持续的“压力”；支持职业早期专业人士；并特别关注设计和研究等正经历显著负面情绪的职位。总体信息是同理心，承认在这个“前所未有的狂野”时期，科技社区内部存在着多元且常有冲突的情绪。
Lenny Rachitsky hosts Noam Siegel, his former research partner, to discuss the findings of their second annual tech worker sentiment survey. This ambitious survey, aiming to be the largest of its kind, explores how tech professionals feel about their jobs, AI, layoffs, burnout, and their career future, revealing profound shifts in the industry.
A central theme emerging from the survey is the **bifurcation of the tech workforce** regarding AI's impact. Roughly half of tech workers feel "amplified" by AI, experiencing increased capability and excitement. The other half, however, feel "redefined," "destabilized," or "diminished." This split is not merely anecdotal but an "outsized impact" that correlates strongly with almost every other measure of job satisfaction, optimism, and burnout. Four archetypes describe these feelings: "Energized" (41%), "Conflicted" (35%), "Disoriented" (12%), and "Resentful" (12%), illustrating a wide spectrum of experiences.
The survey reveals a significant and concerning trend: **burnout is surging**, increasing from 44.7% to 54.7% in just one year, while **optimism is declining** from 54.8% to 48.7%. This happens despite many reporting high job enjoyment, a phenomenon termed "smiling exhaustion" – people are excited by AI's capabilities but are overwhelmed by the relentless pace and demands. The primary fear among tech workers isn't losing their job to AI, but rather "the expectation to do more for the same pay" and an "unsustainable pace."
Regarding **AI's impact on work quality and productivity**, 97.2% of respondents believe AI makes them "better" at their job. However, a deeper dive uncovers a troubling reality: "better" often means "doing more faster, but not better." Many report a decline in the quality of their work and a worrying "cognitive rot," where over-reliance on AI diminishes their critical thinking and judgment. This suggests a trade-off: increased output comes at the cost of intellectual engagement and work quality.
Perhaps one of the most striking findings is the response to the question: **"Would you recommend your role to someone entering the industry now?"** Across all roles, including sales, PMs, operations, engineering, and particularly designers and researchers, the answer is a resounding "no." NPS-like scores are negative for every function, suggesting a widespread sentiment that while current employees might be "swimming in the pool," they wouldn't advise others to jump in. This reluctance is most pronounced for designers and researchers, who also feel the most destabilized by AI. Data analysts are also highly worried about job displacement by AI.
**The happiest people in tech are founders and those working in smaller companies.** Founders consistently report the highest optimism and lowest burnout, although even they wouldn't necessarily recommend their path to others. There's a clear, linear correlation: as company size increases, optimism decreases, and burnout, layoff worry, and reluctance to recommend one's role all increase significantly.
The survey also reinforces the critical role of **managers**. Effective managers are strongly linked to higher job enjoyment and lower burnout, highlighting their profound impact on employee well-being. However, only about 25% of managers are rated as "highly effective," with managers in data/analytics and design being rated the least effectively. This underscores the need for greater investment in manager training and support.
Finally, when asked to describe the **state of the tech industry**, responses coalesced into a chaotic word cloud featuring terms like "change," "chaos," "speed," "excitement," "hype," "unstable," and "confusing." Sentiment analysis showed an almost even split between positive (37%) and negative (37%) descriptions, with 26% being neutral, indicating a deeply ambivalent and unprecedented era.
The podcast concludes with **advice for employees and leaders.** Employees are urged to focus deeply on specific AI applications rather than trying to be generalists, monitor the "squeeze" of increased workload for the same pay, invest in their relationship with their manager, consider smaller companies, and seek mentorship. For leaders, the key recommendations are to invest heavily in managers, manage expectations to avoid unsustainable "squeeze," support early-career professionals, and pay special attention to roles like design and research that are experiencing significant negative sentiment. The overall message is one of empathy, acknowledging the diverse and often conflicting emotions within the tech community during this "wildest it's ever been" period.
摘要
Noam Segal is a longtime research leader across Airbnb, Meta, Twitter, Zapier, Intercom, and Figma, a certified coach, AI builder, and my community research lead. Together, we run the annual Tech Worker Sentiment Survey, now in its second year and one of the largest of its kind: a quantitative study of how people in tech actually feel about their jobs, AI, burnout, and the future of their careers. This year’s survey captured responses from thousands of workers across product, engineering, design, research, marketing, data, and sales, and the results are striking.
*In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:*
1. Why AI has split the tech workforce almost exactly in half—one half that’s thriving, another that’s shaken
2. The four emotional archetypes defining tech workers right now (the Energized, the Conflicted, the Disoriented, and the Resentful)
3. Why burnout has jumped an alarming 11 points in a single year
4. Why nobody in tech would recommend their job to someone entering the industry today
5. The #1 fear in tech right now (it’s not job loss to AI)
6. Why managers are the single biggest lever for employee well-being
7. Concrete advice for what employees and leaders can do right now
*Brought to you by:*
WorkOS—Make your app enterprise-ready, with SSO, SCIM, RBAC, and more: https://workos.com/lenny
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*Episode transcript:* https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-actually-feel-about
*Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts:* https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0
*Where to find Noam Segal:*
• X: https://x.com/noamseg
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/noamsegal
*Where to find Lenny:*
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
*In this episode, we cover:*
(00:00) Introduction to Noam Segal
(02:34) About the survey: methodology and scope
(06:04) The core finding: AI has split the tech workforce in half
(13:03) The AI identity stance
(14:40) The four archetypes: Energized, Conflicted, Disoriented, Resentful
(19:35) Burnout is surging (and why shipping faster is making it worse)
(22:53) A glimmer of hope
(24:55) Layoff worries
(29:15) The career recommendation NPS score
(36:45) The ladder metaphor: rungs disappearing beneath our feet
(45:14) AI is making us faster, not better
(52:53) The #1 fear: being squeezed to do more for the same pay
(55:55) The emotional landscape and “smiling exhaustion”
(01:01:02) Designers and researchers: the most negative group two years running
(01:06:27) Who’s happiest
(01:12:18) Managers: the single biggest lever on well-being
(01:18:47) The industry is “chaotic”
(01:24:53) What employees and leaders can do right now
(01:31:32) AI guilt and closing thoughts
*Referenced:*
• How tech workers are feeling in 2026: a workforce splitting in two: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-are-feeling-in-2026
• How tech’s most resilient workers handle burnout: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-techs-most-resilient-workers
• Please stop the AI Confidence Theater: https://www.elenaverna.com/p/please-stop-the-ai-confidence-theater
• Velocity over everything: How Ramp became the fastest-growing SaaS startup of all time | Geoff Charles (VP of Product): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/velocity-over-everything-how-ramp
• NPS Is The Worst: https://www.npsistheworst.com
• The Terminator: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0088247
• Skynet: https://terminator.fandom.com/wiki/Skynet
• Inside Devin: The world’s first autonomous AI engineer that’s set to write 50% of its company’s code by end of year | Scott Wu (CEO and co-founder of Cognition): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-devin-scott-wu
• Devin: https://devin.ai
• An AI state of the union: We’ve passed the inflection point, dark factories are coming, and automation timelines | Simon Willison: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/an-ai-state-of-the-union
• Redeploying Fable 5: https://www.anthropic.com/news/redeploying-fable-5
• Why half of product managers are in trouble | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-half-of-product-managers-are-in-trouble
• Inside Linear: Building with taste, craft, and focus | Karri Saarinen (co-founder, designer, CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-linear-building-with-taste
• Building beautiful products with Stripe’s Head of Design | Katie Dill (Stripe, Airbnb, Lyft): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-beautiful-products-with
...References continued at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-tech-workers-actually-feel-about
_Production and marketing by https://penname.co/._
_For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com._
Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
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