Markets Weekly July 11, 2026

**7月11日，Markets Weekly 重点关注了一段波动时期，美伊和俄乌冲突导致能源价格上涨，但整体市场情绪依然低迷。然而，主要关注点是美联储即将发生的重大变革，由“凯文”（可能是美联储主席或联邦公开市场委员会的重要人物）牵头，他最近宣布了几个关键工作组的负责人。** 演讲者将凯文设立这些工作组的行为视为一种常见的领导策略：引入高资历的外部专家来验证首席执行官既有的愿景，从而为“推销”这一愿景提供依据，并在改革失败时提供潜在的“替罪羊”。凯文的公开观点众所周知：他认为美联储沟通过多，不喜欢前瞻性指引，认为资产负债表过大，并预计技术驱动的生产力繁荣将降低通胀。演讲者指出，尽管这些被选中的小组成员都是杰出专家，但他们大多倾向于凯文的结论。 **沟通小组：** 该小组旨在减少美联储对前瞻性指引的依赖，这种工具在2008年金融危机后被广泛使用，以在短期利率为零时影响利率。问题在于，正如疫情期间所体现的，这种指引限制了美联储在不损害其信誉的情况下，对不断变化的经济状况做出反应的能力。核心小组成员，如英格兰银行前行长默文·金，反对前瞻性指引，强调经济关系的“根本不确定性”和“非平稳性”。与物理学不同，经济规则不断变化，这使得长期预测和承诺变得不可靠。演讲者预计该工作组将建议停止使用“点阵图”（联邦公开市场委员会的利率预测）等工具。 **资产负债表政策小组：** 该工作组将着手解决美联储资产负债表的规模和构成问题。印度储备银行前行长、著名小组成员拉古拉姆·拉詹强烈主张缩小资产负债表。他认为，流动性的扩张会助长金融系统内部的过度杠杆化，而随后的流动性撤回则会产生紧缩效应。虽然该小组可能不会主张恢复到金融危机前的“稀缺”水平，但预计将倾向于更小的资产负债表，从而降低未来量化宽松的可能性。 **数据小组：** 该小组旨在提高美联储对经济的实时理解。小组成员包括以其实时新冠疫情经济数据项目而闻名的拉吉·切蒂，以及沃尔玛前首席执行官董明伦（Doug McMillon）。沃尔玛先进的物流系统能即时提供消费者行为和供应链动态的洞察，比传统上经常修订的政府统计数据（如就业数据）提供更及时的视角。该工作组可能会倡导采用私营部门和技术进步，以实现更准确、更实时的经济衡量。 **生产力小组：** 该工作组预计将证实凯文关于即将到来的AI驱动的生产力繁荣将缓解通胀压力的信念。鉴于马克·安德森等科技界知名人士也在小组成员之列，其结论在很大程度上被认为是预先确定的。尽管当前的经济数据尚未完全反映出这种繁荣（例如，实际工资尚未显著超过通胀），但演讲者个人认为这些收益最终将会实现并在数据中显现。 **通胀框架工作组：** 这被认为是所有小组中最重要的一个，任务是重新审视美联储如何理解和应对通胀。小组成员包括威廉·怀特和诺贝尔奖获得者托马斯·萨金特等有影响力的思想家。怀特反对仅仅狭隘地关注2%的通胀目标，他警告说，忽视金融过度行为（如2008年危机前所见）可能导致未来的经济不稳定，并使通胀目标更难实现。萨金特强调通胀的财政根源，指出政府支出和赤字（如疫情期间）在其中扮演着比传统货币因素更重要的角色。该工作组有望建议对通胀采取更广泛、更细致的方法，整合金融稳定性和财政考量。 总而言之，这些工作组代表了凯文有意识地努力，旨在使美联储的运作理念更接近他自己的观点。尽管美联储是一个保守的机构，但这些变革预计将在今年年底前正式确定，并从明年开始逐步实施，届时将变得更加明显。

On July 11th, Markets Weekly highlights a volatile period, with US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts contributing to higher energy prices, yet overall market sentiment remains subdued. The main focus, however, is on significant forthcoming changes at the Federal Reserve, spearheaded by "Kevin" (presumably the Fed Chair or a prominent figure within the FOMC), who recently announced the leaders of several key task forces. The speaker frames Kevin's establishment of these task forces as a common leadership strategy: bringing in highly credentialed external experts to validate a CEO's pre-existing vision, thus providing a basis to "sell" the vision and a potential scapegoat if changes fail. Kevin's public views are well-known: he believes the Fed communicates too much, dislikes forward guidance, thinks the balance sheet is too large, and anticipates a productivity boom driven by technology will lower inflation. The speaker notes that while the selected panelists are distinguished experts, they are largely predisposed to Kevin's conclusions. **Communications Panel:** This panel aims to reduce the Fed's reliance on forward guidance, a tool used extensively post-Great Financial Crisis to influence interest rates when short-term rates were at zero. The problem, as exemplified during the pandemic, was that such guidance constrained the Fed's ability to react to evolving economic conditions without damaging its credibility. Key panelists like Mervyn King, former Governor of the Bank of England, argue against forward guidance, emphasizing "radical uncertainty" and the "non-stationary" nature of economic relationships. Unlike physics, economic rules constantly change, making long-term predictions and commitments unreliable. The speaker anticipates this task force will recommend discontinuing tools like the "dot plot" (FOMC's interest rate projections). **Balance Sheet Policy Panel:** This task force is set to address the size and composition of the Fed's balance sheet. Raghuram Rajan, former Governor of the Bank of India and a prominent panelist, strongly advocates for a smaller balance sheet. He argues that expanding liquidity encourages excessive leveraging within the financial system, making its subsequent withdrawal contractionary. While the panel may not push for a return to pre-GFC "scarcity" levels, it is expected to favor a smaller balance sheet, making future quantitative easing less likely. **Data Panel:** This panel seeks to improve the Fed's real-time understanding of the economy. Panelists include Raj Chetty, known for his real-time COVID-19 economic data project, and a former Walmart CEO, Doug McMillon. Walmart's sophisticated logistics system provides immediate insights into consumer behavior and supply chain dynamics, offering a more up-to-date view than traditional, often revised, government statistics (like employment numbers). The task force will likely champion the adoption of private sector and technological advancements for more accurate, real-time economic measurement. **Productivity Panel:** This task force is expected to affirm Kevin's belief in an impending AI-driven productivity boom that will alleviate inflationary pressures. With tech luminaries like Marc Andreessen on the panel, the conclusion is considered largely predetermined. Although current economic data doesn't yet fully reflect such a boom (e.g., real wages haven't significantly outpaced inflation), the speaker personally believes these gains will eventually materialize and become apparent in the data. **Inflation Framework Task Force:** This is deemed the most pivotal panel, tasked with revisiting how the Fed understands and responds to inflation. It features influential thinkers like William White and Nobel laureate Thomas Sargent. White argues against a narrow focus solely on the 2% inflation target, warning that ignoring financial excesses (as seen before the 2008 crisis) can lead to future economic instability and make the inflation target harder to achieve. Sargent emphasizes the fiscal origins of inflation, suggesting that government spending and deficits (like during COVID) play a more significant role than traditional monetary factors. This task force is poised to recommend a broader, more nuanced approach to inflation, integrating financial stability and fiscal considerations. In summary, these task forces represent a deliberate effort by Kevin to shift the Fed's operational philosophy closer to his own views. While the Fed is a conservative institution, these changes are expected to be formalized by the end of the year and gradually implemented, becoming more apparent from next year onwards.