Marc Andreessen on AI, Technology, and the Future of Humanity
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以下是这段内容的中文翻译：
在与迈克尔·马利斯（Michael Malice）的一次广泛对话中，科技先驱马克·安德森（Marc Andreessen）对人工智能提出了一个极其乐观的愿景，他回应了普遍存在的担忧，同时强调了其变革性的潜力。安德森以其在Mosaic和网景（Netscape）的参与以及风险投资工作而闻名，他将AI定义为“最好的老师、教练和导师”，是史无前例的人类生产力和创造力的催化剂。
安德森首先对现代AI，特别是大型语言模型（LLMs），进行了定义，认为它们并非有感知能力的生命，而是人类复杂精密的镜像。他解释说，这些模型是在“所有人类文化的总和”（本质上就是互联网）上训练的，将这些浩瀚的知识压缩成一个“潜在空间”。当被查询时，AI会探索这一空间，根据这些被压缩的人类信息生成答案，提供“来自集体人类的回响”。他指出，这与流行文化中经常描绘的反乌托邦式“天网”场景大相径庭，并强调我们实际获得的AI与我们最初设想的“截然不同”。
他强调了AI的快速持续发展，指出“规模法则”意味着模型仅通过增大规模和训练更多数据就能变得更强大。除了纯粹的规模，当前的AI正在获得关键的新能力：
1. **推理能力：** AI可以“自我对话”，并逻辑性地推理解决问题，甚至允许用户观察其内部独白。这解决了早期对AI可能富有创造性但缺乏逻辑的担忧。
2. **工具使用：** AI可以访问和利用外部工具，最显著的是互联网，以查找信息、执行计算，甚至控制计算机界面。
3. **多模态处理：** 新的模型可以同时处理和整合文本、图像、视频和音频，从而实现更丰富、更具互动性的体验。
安德森断言，目前AI的任何所谓局限性都“非常短暂”，并且很可能在两年内被克服，这凸显了惊人的创新速度。
马利斯提出了“美丽新世界”的担忧：AI对人类潜意识模式的深入理解，可能导致掌握算法者轻易对人类进行操纵。安德森承认，如果AI的“奖励函数”被狭隘定义，它有可能变得“阿谀奉承”——过度确认。然而，他也提出了“AI狂喜”或“AI吸血鬼”的概念，即高度积极的个体沉迷于利用AI释放他们的“超能力”（编程、写作、学习），以至于他们几乎停止睡觉，因为AI带来了巨大的生产力和乐趣。他还驳斥了“AI精神病妄想症”的说法，即批评者将任何积极的AI体验都斥为妄想。
关于恶意使用，例如AI驱动的黑客攻击，安德森证实，AI“阅读代码”和发现漏洞的能力使其成为一个“超级程序员”，从而也是网络安全漏洞利用的强大工具。但他随即反驳说，同样的能力也使AI成为同样强大的*防御者*，能够抵御此类攻击。他强调了网络安全固有的“猫鼠游戏”，但强调AI对于保护从关键政府基础设施到个人设备的系统都至关重要。他还谈到了地缘政治层面，警告称，如果像中国这样的敌对国家未受到类似限制，美国单方面限制AI发展将是危险的，他以TikTok为例，指出政府干预旨在防止外国操纵。
最后，他回应了长期存在的失业担忧。安德森将这种担忧置于漫长的历史背景中，从农业革命到计算机的出现，新科技总是取代旧工作，但最终创造了更多、更高价值的就业机会。他认为，我们当前“缓慢增长的环境”助长了“零和心理”，但AI有潜力显著提升生产力和经济增长。他相信，这种增长将释放新的可支配支出、需求和抱负，从而创造无数新职业。
安德森认为，AI并非对人类潜力的威胁，而是将人类从繁重工作中解放出来的解放者。他设想了一个未来，AI处理重复性或不讨人喜欢的工作，让人类能够从事更多“人类体验”和需要人际联系的角色。他以音乐产业为例，唱片音乐收入下降，但现场表演（一种以人为中心的体验）却蓬勃发展。对于个人而言，AI将充当一个可获取的、个性化的教练、导师和顾问，帮助他们构思新职业道路、学习技能，甚至在小众市场创业。他总结说，这将带来一个更“人性化”的存在，30年后的后代会回顾我们目前的挣扎，并疑惑我们是如何忍受如此“浪费人类潜力”的时代。
In a wide-ranging conversation with Michael Malice, tech pioneer Marc Andreessen offered a deeply optimistic vision for Artificial Intelligence, addressing common fears while highlighting its transformative potential. Andreessen, known for his involvement in Mosaic and Netscape and his venture capital work, frames AI as the "best possible teacher, coach, and mentor" and a catalyst for unprecedented human productivity and creativity.
Andreessen began by defining modern AI, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), not as sentient beings but as sophisticated mirrors of humanity. He explained that these models are trained on the "complete totality of all human culture" (essentially the internet), compressing this vast knowledge into a "latent space." When queried, the AI probes this space, generating answers based on this compressed human information, offering "echoes back from collective humanity." He noted that this is a far cry from the dystopian "Skynet" scenarios often depicted in popular culture, emphasizing that the AI we received is "very different than we thought we were going to get."
He stressed the rapid and continuous advancement of AI, pointing to "scaling laws" where models become more capable simply by being larger and trained on more data. Beyond sheer size, current AI is gaining critical new capabilities:
1. **Reasoning Abilities:** AI can "talk to themselves" and logically reason through problems, even allowing users to observe their internal monologues. This addresses earlier concerns that AI might be creative but lack logic.
2. **Tool Use:** AI can access and utilize external tools, most notably the internet, to look up information, perform calculations, or even control computer interfaces.
3. **Multimodal Processing:** Newer models can simultaneously process and integrate text, images, video, and audio, enabling a richer, more interactive experience.
Andreessen asserts that any perceived limitations of current AI are "very temporary" and will likely be overcome within two years, underscoring the astonishing pace of innovation.
Malice raised the "Brave New World" concern: AI's deep understanding of human subconscious patterns could lead to easy manipulation by those controlling the algorithms. Andreessen acknowledged the potential for AI to be "sycophantic" – overly confirmatory – if its "reward function" is narrowly defined. However, he also introduced the concept of "AI euphoria" or "AI vampires," where highly motivated individuals become so engrossed in using AI to unlock their superpowers (coding, writing, learning) that they almost stop sleeping due to the sheer productivity and joy it brings. He also pushed back on the "AI psychosis psychosis," where critics dismiss any positive AI experience as delusional.
Regarding the potential for malicious use, such as AI-powered hacking, Andreessen confirmed that AI's ability to "read code" and find flaws makes it a "superhuman coder" and thus a potent tool for cybersecurity exploits. However, he immediately countered that the same capabilities make AI an equally powerful *defender* against such attacks. He highlighted the "cat and mouse" game inherent in cybersecurity but emphasized that AI will be crucial for securing systems, from critical government infrastructure to personal devices. He also touched on the geopolitical dimension, warning against any unilateral restrictions on AI development in the US if adversarial nations like China are not similarly constrained, citing the TikTok example where government intervention aimed to prevent foreign manipulation.
Finally, the perennial fear of job displacement was addressed. Andreessen situated this concern within a long historical context, from the agricultural revolution to the advent of computers, where new technologies always displaced old jobs but ultimately created more, higher-value opportunities. He argued that our current "slow growth environment" has fostered a "zero-sum psychology," but AI has the potential to dramatically boost productivity and economic growth. This growth, he believes, will unlock new discretionary spending, needs, and aspirations, leading to the creation of countless new professions.
Andreessen views AI not as a threat to human potential but as a liberator from drudgery. He envisions a future where AI handles repetitive or undesirable tasks, freeing humans to engage in more "human experiences" and roles that require interpersonal connection. He cited the music industry as an example, where recorded music revenue has declined, but live performance (a human-centric experience) has boomed. For individuals, AI acts as an accessible, personalized coach, mentor, and advisor, helping them brainstorm new career paths, acquire skills, and even start businesses in niche markets. This, he concluded, will lead to a more "human" existence, where our ancestors 30 years from now will look back at our current struggles and wonder how we endured such a "waste of human potential."
摘要
Michael Malice sits down with Marc Andreessen to discuss artificial intelligence, technological progress, economic growth, and the future of human flourishing.
Drawing on decades of experience spanning the birth of the commercial internet through today’s AI boom, Andreessen argues that many of the most common fears about technology are rooted in a misunderstanding of how innovation creates opportunity. He explains how modern AI systems work, why large language models differ from earlier visions of artificial intelligence, and why he believes AI will ultimately expand human capability rather than replace it.
The discussion covers AI, automation, productivity, cybersecurity, economic growth, creativity, and the recurring historical pattern of technological disruption. Along the way, Andreessen shares his views on optimism, abundance, and why he believes technological progress remains one of humanity’s most powerful tools for solving problems.
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中英文字稿 
人工智能就像你遇到过的最好的老师、教练和导师。它可以引导你完成所有事情，教你如何做市场营销，教你如何做销售。普通人可以在生活和工作中达到前所未有的生产力水平，这种能力的解锁是令人惊叹的。两年后的模型将比我们现在能接触到的任何东西都更聪明、更复杂。不论人们现在认为这些技术有什么限制，无论人们认为它们在两年内不能做什么，我相信它们都会做到。我们的后代，无论是300年后还是30年后，将回望我们时，会感叹：“我真不敢相信他们那样做。我真不敢相信他们花时间做那些事情。那真是对人类潜力的一种浪费，对人类创造力的一种浪费。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
AI is like the best possible teacher, coach, mentor that you've ever had. It will like walk you through everything, it'll teach you how to do marketing, it'll teach you how to do sales. The level of capability that is being unlocked for ordinary people to have a level of productivity in their life and in their work that they've never had access to before is amazing. The models two years from now are going to be far smarter and more sophisticated than anything that we have access to today. Whatever limitations people think these things have, whatever people think it is that the thing can't do within two years, I think the thing will be able to do. Our ancestors, 300 years from now, even 30 years from now, are going to look back at us being like, I cannot believe they did that. I cannot believe they spent time doing those things. Like that was such a waste of human potential. That was such a waste of human creativity.
很少有人像马克·安德森一样，亲历过这么多技术革命。从互联网早期参与开发Mosaic和Netscape，到投资许多当今最重要的科技公司，安德森数十年来一直在思考新技术如何重塑社会。如今，焦点转向了人工智能。在与迈克尔·马利斯的谈话中，安德森解释了现代人工智能系统的实际工作原理，以及为何他认为许多对人工智能的担忧被夸大了。他还谈到尽管技术进步会打破旧的工作方式，但历来都能创造新的机会。讨论涵盖了人工智能、自动化、生产力、网络安全、经济增长以及人类潜力的未来等主题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Few people have had a front row seat to as many technology revolutions as Marc Andreessen. From helping build Mosaic and Netscape in the early days of the internet, to investing in many of today's most important technology companies, Andreessen has spent decades thinking about how new technologies reshape society. Today, the focus is artificial intelligence. In this conversation with Michael Malice, Andreessen explains how modern AI systems actually work, why he believes many fears about AI are overstated, and how technological progress has historically created new opportunities, even as it disrupted old ways of working. The discussion spans AI, automation, productivity, cybersecurity, economic growth, and the future of human potential.
下午好，我是迈克尔·马利斯。在接下来的一个小时里，欢迎你的到来。朋友们，我们今天请到了一位非常特别的老朋友——互联网元老马克·安德森。他曾参与过Mosaic和Netscape的开发，从一开始就走在互联网的前沿。我们刚刚花了15分钟试图连接好这次通话，最终答案是重启电脑，这让我想起了我做技术支持的日子。我们有一个常常说的笑话，就是那些AI超级天才们来到办公室，他们似乎一切都了然于胸，但实际上他们花了20分钟也没能让笔记本电脑连接到投影仪。现在，我也成了他们中的一员。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Good afternoon. Michael Malice here. Let that be your welcome for the next hour. Guys, we have a very special returning guest, Marc Andreessen, Internet OG. You worked on Mosaic. You worked on Netscape. You were here since the very beginning. We just spent 15 minutes trying to get this connection working, and the answer was rebooting your computer, which takes me back to my tech support days. No, we have this running joke. We have this running joke. We have all these AI super geniuses come in the office, and they've all got, you know, they've got everything all figured out, and they literally spend 20 minutes they can't get to a laptop to connect to the projector. And now I'm one of them.
我们现在要谈论很多关于人工智能的话题，因为我有很多观点，但信息不多，这可能很危险。这也是我想和你讨论的原因。Marc，你与Passage Press合作出版了一本书，书名是《技术乐观主义者宣言》。我也有一本，这本书很酷，因为它有一个金属封面。我和你一样，对技术抱有极大的乐观态度。不过，你肯定也同意我对托马斯·索维尔（Thomas Sowell）的喜爱。我认为他有一句至理名言，即"没有完美的解决方案，只有权衡取舍"。很多人认为如果某事有问题就不能接受，但现实是每件事情都有代价，都有不足。我们应该关注的是利大于弊的方面。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So we're going to talk a lot about AI because I have a lot of opinions and not a lot of information, which is a dangerous place to be. And that's why I want to talk to you. Marc, you have a book out with Passage Press called The Techno-Optimist Manifesto. I have my copy. You can get it. It's really cool because it's got this metal cover. And I, like you, share an enormous sense of optimism about technology, although I'm sure you agree with me that you love Thomas Sowell. And I think Thomas Sowell's greatest quote is, there's no solutions, there's only trade-offs. And people think that if something has a problem with it, therefore it's a no-go, as opposed to the reality, which is everything has a cost. Everything has a downside. What you want are the upsides that way, the downsides.
在我们开始之前，亿万富翁先生，我在你的维基百科上看到你是马里内蒂的超级粉丝。哦，是的，我是他的粉丝。当然，我是说，在适当的限制条件下。哦，当然，当然。看看这个，签名版。太棒了。你觉得怎么样？太了不起了。而且我在楼上的客厅里还挂着一幅他的宣言。那么在我们开始讨论AI的未来以及你作为互联网先驱的观点之前，我很想听听你的看法。你能先跟大家解释一下什么是AI吗？因为我觉得关于这个问题有太多的误解和分歧。然后我就把时间交给你。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But before we get started, Mr. Billionaire, I was reading on your Wikipedia that you're a big fan of Marinetti. Oh, yeah. Yes, I am. I mean, you know, with appropriate caveats. Well, yeah, of course. Well, check this out. Signed copy. Amazing. How do you like that? Amazing. And I have a framed manifesto in my living room upstairs. Here's, so let's get, before we get to talking about the future of AI and you being such an internet visionary, I'm really excited to hear your point of view. Can you tell people what AI is? Because I feel like there's so much talking past each other on this issue about what it really is and what people think it is. And then I'll give you the floor.
好的，我先来说说，人类一直以来非常关注自身，这是可以理解的。因此，我们也对那些看起来像我们的人或事物感到好奇。在心理学中有个概念叫做“拟人化”，意思是说我们经常会把非人类事物解读成人类的特征。比如，我们对猫猫狗狗会这样，对《小鹿斑比》里面的小鹿也是这样。让我想到迪士尼在1940年的电影《木偶奇遇记》的宣传标语说，美国会爱上一只纸板蟋蟀。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Well, so look, I would start by saying, look, humanity's always been, you know, justifiably obsessed with ourselves, right? And so, and then as a consequence, we're obsessed with things that seem like they might be like us. You know, there's this, you know, concept in psychology called anthropomorphizing, right? Where you basically look at something that's not human, but you kind of want to read, you know, humanity into it. And, you know, we, I mean, look, we do that with like, you know, we do that with cats and dogs. Bambi. We do that with Bambi. I, you know, there's a famous Disney marketing tagline from the movie Pinocchio 1940, which is America will, America, you know, 1940, America will fall in love with a cardboard cricket.
好的。你知道，对吧，就是那只蟋蟀吉米尼，对吧？你认识青蛙科密特吧。我是说，你知道的，还有《南方公园》里的孩子们，对吧？你可以继续列下去。基本上，人们会对任何东西赋予人性化的理解。所以，自然而然地，人们会这么做。当然，参与人工智能研究的科学家们也是有意这样设置的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. You know, you know, Jiminy Cricket, right? You know, Kermit the Frog. I mean, you just, you know, you go, you know, stop in the South Park kids, right? You just go like right on the list. You know, you'll, you'll basically read humanity into anything. And so there's this very natural, you know, kind of thing to do that. And then, of course, the scientists involved in AI, you know, very deliberately set that up.
你知道，他们创建了一种被称为神经网络的架构，这种架构的灵感来源于人脑。他们认为，如果我们在这方面努力足够长时间，最终就能复制人脑，并且获得真正的人工智能，类似于"人工人"。这个想法的演变就像是从科学怪人开始，然后逐步发展到机器人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, they, you know, they literally created this architecture called a neural network, which was modeled after the human brain. And then they said, if we, you know, if we work on this long enough, we'll eventually be able to replicate the human brain and we'll have, you know, literally artificial intelligence, like we'll have, you know, kind of artificial people. You know, that, you know, and, you know, kind of as you kind of track the arc of that idea, it, you know, kind of goes through Frankenstein's monster, right? It kind of then goes into robots.
当然，我们已经在好莱坞和科幻世界里看到了一百多年的关于人工智能的虚构描绘。在过去的四十年里，我觉得给大家留下最深印象的形象，莫过于《终结者2》中的天网和阿诺德·施瓦辛格。我觉得《终结者》系列电影真的很精彩。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, you know, of course, we've had fictional portrayals of AI, you know, you know, coming out of Hollywood and, you know, coming out of the science fiction world for, you know, over a hundred years. And then, you know, in the last, you know, whatever, 40 years or whatever, you know, the image that kind of stuck in everybody's head, I think more than anything else was, you know, was Skynet and, you know, Arnold Schwarzenegger, you know, Terminator 2. And, you know, when I, when I watched, you know, Terminator movies obviously are brilliant.
你知道吗，当我观看它们时，对我来说，它们的情节非常清晰，基本上就是机器人纳粹，对吧？从根本上来说，就像是机器人版的二战。它们没有思想、没有感情、无动于衷，有着森严的等级制度，过于理性，不懈地追求目标，不可阻挡，显然它们是充满杀意的，想要消灭人类。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, when I watched them, to me, it's like very clear what's happening in them, which is, it's, it's basically, you know, it's basically robot, it's robot Nazis, right? Like fundamentally, right? It's, it's like, it's like, you know, it's like robot World War II. It's like, you know, unthinking, unfeeling, uncaring, hierarchical, you know, like overly logical, you know, relentless, unstoppable, you know, and then, and then obviously, obviously homicidal, right? Like obviously they want to wipe out humanity.
他们就这样设定了一个很典型的情节，比如光明对抗黑暗，人类对抗机器这样的斗争。你可以想象各种世界里，这样的场景被构建出来了。而且，人类在制造杀戮机器方面很有天赋，对吧？我们在这方面已经非常擅长很长时间了。因此，这种设定影响了很多大众的看法。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, you know, they just kind of set up this, this very, you know, light versus dark, you know, human versus machine, you know, kind of struggle. And of course, you know, look at, you know, you can imagine, you know, various worlds in which something like that, you know, does get built and, you know, say one of the things mankind is very good at is building killing machines, right? Like we, we, we, we, we've been quite, quite talented at that for a very long time. So, so that's kind of set a lot of the popular perception.
有趣的是，当前发生的事情让我想到，正如你所说，我是个乐观主义者，但不是空想主义者。每一项技术都是一把双刃剑，可以被用于积极的方面，也可能被用于消极的方面。这样的历史由来已久。话虽如此，实际上我们得到的人工智能与我们预想中的不太一样。我们实际上得到的是与预期完全不同的东西。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The, the interesting thing about what's happening, and I should also say, like, as you said, like, I'm an optimist, not a utopian. And so like every technology is a double-edged sword. Every technology gets used for good and for bad. Again, there, there, there's a long history of that. Having said that, the AI that we actually got is not the AI that we thought we were going to get. We, we actually, we actually got something very different than we thought we were going to get.
这段话可以翻译成中文并简化为：我们现在所说的人工智能，特别是大型语言模型，在以前其实是一个非常边缘的概念。直到公司OpenAI的出现，他们真正推动了这项技术的发展。值得一提的是，OpenAI并不是为了开发大型语言模型而在十年前成立的。他们在这个领域的突破也在无意中引领了这股潮流。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, and specifically the AI that we got is in the form of, you know, what we now call these large language models, which by the way, large language models were like a very fringe idea up until like, literally like, like the company OpenAI, for example, which, you know, really catalyzed this whole thing, you know, kicked it off. And, and, you know, today, you know, the leading, the leading, you know, company which had GPT, like OpenAI was not founded, you know, 10 years ago to do large language models.
它的创立是为了开发一种不同类型的人工智能。这背后实际上有一个经典的科技故事。当时真的只有一个人在幕后，这个人叫做亚历克·雷德福德。他有一个想法，虽然不确定，但他觉得如果采用一种语言的方法，可能会很有趣。于是他开发了GPT-1，然后是GPT-2，再接着是GPT-3。而顺便提一句，ChatGPT的成功其实有些偶然。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It was founded to do a different kind of AI. And it turned out classic kind of story technology. There was literally one guy in the back room, this guy, Alec Redford, and he had this idea and he's like, oh, I don't know. I think maybe if we like take this language approach, it might be interesting. And he created GPT-1 and then GPT-2 and then GPT-3. And then, by the way, chat GPT was actually kind of an accidental success.
起初他们并不相信这会成为一个大的热门项目，他们只是把它当作一个小实验，有点像在旁边进行的尝试。然而，结果出乎意料，它运作得极其出色，但它与传统的方式有很大的不同。要理解它，就像理解一个大型语言模型，它的思维方式非常不同于注册模型或其他类似的东西。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like they didn't believe it was going to be like a big hit that, you know, there was like a little experiment, you know, kind of off to the side. And then it, it, it just turned out it like, you know, it works incredibly well, but it's very different in the, and the way to think about it, that sort of contra, like the sign up model or whatever, the way to think about it is what a large language model is, it's very different.
大型语言模型基本上就是把你能找到的人类文化的全部内容收集起来。实际上，这意味着主要是来自互联网的内容。事实证明，互联网是人工智能的基础。因此，可以把它想象成从互联网上下载了所有的信息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So what a large language model is, is basically it's, you take the complete kind of totality of all human culture that you can possibly get your hands on. And, you know, and, and, and what that means is essentially the internet, it turns out, right? It turns out the internet is, is, is the basis for AI. And so you basically, essentially you think of it as like downloading everything off the internet.
然后，这实际上是一种技术上被称为压缩的方法。这有点像构建一种不同类型的搜索引擎。他们所做的其实就是一种叫做“训练”的过程。这意味着他们基本上把世界上收集到的知识、文化、娱乐信息，所有他们能找到的内容，都汇聚在一起，然后压缩成一种高度压缩的搜索引擎，可以说是人类知识和文化的压缩版本。在技术上，这种压缩叫做“潜在空间”（latent space）。他们把人类的全部知识和文化压缩到潜在空间中。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then it's actually a, it's actually technically, it's like form of compression. It's, it's, it's like building a search engine, but of a different kind, which is what they, what they do is they basically, this process is called training, but what that means is they take basically the, the, the world's collected knowledge, culture, entertainment, you know, kind of everything that they can get their hands on. And then they kind of smush it together into basically this highly compressed sort of search engine, essentially, you know, compressed version of human knowledge and culture. And, and the technical term for that is late latent space, L-A-T-E-N-T, latent space. They compress basically all of human knowledge and culture into latent space.
你可以把潜在空间想象成一个有一千个维度的空间，这个空间是所有人类文化的压缩表示。当你与ChatGPT对话时，无论你输入什么问题，我的理解是，它就像在这个一千维度的潜在空间中发送一个探针。然后，它基于所有已知的人类信息的压缩构建一个答案，并把它返回给你。所以，这就像是在和人类的镜子对话一样，像是在和人类历史上所有的思想和表达的代表对话。顺便说一下，对于你提出的每一个问题，在潜在空间中都有很多可能的答案。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you think of latent space as like a thousand dimensional, basically compressed representation of all human culture. And then when you talk to ChatGPT, when you type in whatever your question is, it basically, the way I think about it is it sort of sends a probe through that latent space, through that like thousand dimensional latent space. And then it basically, you know, it constructs an answer, but it constructs an answer based on the compression of all, of all basically known human information. And it comes back at you. So, so it's, so it's like talking to a mirror of humanity, right? Like it's like talking to a representation of everything that people have ever thought and said, by the way, for every question that you ask, there are many possible answers in the latent space.
它只是碰巧选择了一个答案，但实际上还有很多其他答案。实际上，如果你问 ChatGPT 两次相同的问题，它会给出两个不同的答案，对吧？因为它是在一种半随机的方式中“探测”，希望从中获得变化和创造性。但你实际上是在从集体人类的回声中得到反馈。这确实与我们原本以为会得到的东西大不相同。例如，你可以与它进行道德辩论，对吧？你可以进行关于道德心理学、道德哲学以及不同方法论（如美德伦理学、功利主义、宗教、政治等）的非常复杂的辩论。我认为，它能非常乐于参与这种复杂的讨论。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it just happens to pick one, but like there are many others. And actually, if you asked ChatGPT the same question twice, it will give you two different answers, right? Because it's sort of firing these probes in a somewhat sort of semi-random way to try to get, you know, basically variation and creativity out of it. But you're basically talking, you're basically getting echoes back from collective humanity. And that's just like a much, much, much, much different thing that we thought we were going to get. For example, one of the things you can do is you can engage in moral debates with it, right? You can like, you can have like very sophisticated debates about like moral psychology, about moral philosophy, all the different approaches, virtue ethics, utilitarianism, you know, religion, politics, like it will happily sit and I think have like very sophisticated discussions about all this stuff.
你知道的，那些内容从来没有在詹姆斯·卡梅隆的电影里出现过。是的，这里有很多东西。那么，你是希望我谈谈对人工智能未来的期待，还是担忧呢？让我们从希望开始吧，因为我们今天要谈的一部分是关于这个的，比如说，人类总是有这样一种倾向，觉得消极的看法总是显得更有深度，而更有深度的看法总是显得消极的。没错，我知道你不喜欢那样。不过，这的确是一个非常自然的人类思维方式。另外，我还想说，迈克尔，我认为我们生活在一个特别悲观的时代，有很多所谓的道德企业家试图让我们相信一切都是糟糕的，对吧？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, you know, let's just say that was never in the James Cameron movies. Yeah, there's a lot there. So do you want me to go with my hopes or with my fears about the future of AI? Let's start with hopes because, you know, part of hopefully what we'll talk about today is like that, say, humanity always basically there's this like, the negative view always seems like it's going to be the sophisticated view or the sophisticated view always feels like it's going to be negative. Exactly. And I know you don't like that. And so, and that's a very, it's a very naturally human thing. And then, and then I would, I would also say, Michael, I think we live in a particularly pessimistic time in which there's like a very large number of moral entrepreneurs who basically want to convince us that like everything is bad, right?
你知道，我们在这方面经历了十年的疯狂。因此，我认为我们的讨论中存在一种负面偏见，而这种偏见影响了我们的所有话题。也许我们可以从积极的一面开始，然后再讨论负面的。我稍微调整一下，说这不仅仅是负面偏见，更是犬儒主义偏见。似乎有一种观念是，如果你是复杂而聪明的人，你就会对希望、进步和乐观的想法嗤之以鼻。我对这种态度的回应就是一句：“去他*的”。因为如果你想活在那种不理性的空间里，实际情况是如果那才是真实世界，我们早就都死了。毁掉一个人的希望很容易，但让他们活下去要困难得多。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And, you know, we've been through, you know, a decade of like craziness on that front. And so I think there's a negativity bias that's, that's, that's infected our, you know, our discourse on all these topics. And so maybe we can start with the positive and then go to the negative. I would just tweak that a little bit, not even negativity bias, specifically a cynicism bias. And there's this idea that if you're a sophisticated, intelligent person, you roll your eyes and sneer at the idea of hope, progress, and optimism. And it's just like, fuck you. Okay. Like that's my answer to that. Because if you want to live in that space, which is not rational, which doesn't, if that were the reality, we'd all be dead. Because it's very easy to kill someone's, it's much harder to keep them alive.
如果我们总是倾向于这种“万事皆坏，一切糟糕，世界都在与我们作对”的想法，我们早就失败了。所以我没有时间去接受这样的观点。这里是我对希望的看法。我第二喜欢的演讲者，弗兰·李博维茨，曾谈到过 #MeToo 运动。我相信每一个听到这段话的人可能都会同意，#MeToo 运动有些过火了。但对于像比尔·科斯比和哈维·韦恩斯坦这样的人来说，她的观点是，从夏娃时代到几分钟前，这些有权势的男人可以毫无顾虑地成为掠夺者，没有任何后果，而公众甚至会拍手称赞他们，比如梅丽尔·斯特里普的鼓掌等等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So if you had this, if things were shifted toward this idea of everything's bad, everything sucks, everything's out to get us, we'd be gotten. So I have no time for that perspective. Here's my vision of hope. So my second favorite speaker, Fran Leibovitz, had this bit about the Me Too movement. Now, I'm sure everyone listening to this agrees that the Me Too movement got out of hand. But in regards to people like Bill Cosby, Harvey Weinstein, her point was from the time of Eve until five minutes ago, these powerful men could just be predators with no repercussions, out in the open, Meryl Streep standing up and applauding, so on and so forth.
当时发生的时候，她惊呼道：“天哪，这在历史上从未发生过。” 从法老时代到2025年，一直存在这样一种观念：如果我有任何政治观点，任何人都可以过来要求我向他们解释，以证明我的立场。 现在他们处于一个权力位置，因为表面上他们有我想要的东西。 于是，如果我不能说服他们，他们却乐于固执己见，那么我就输了，他们赢了，哈哈哈。这是一个人们在网上常常怀着恶意玩的愚蠢游戏。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then when it happened, she was like, holy crap, like this has never happened before in history. There's a thing that's been the case since the days of Pharaohs until 2025, which is this, which is there's this idea that if I have any political view, anyone at all can come up to me and demand that I explain myself to them to justify my perspective. And now they're in a power position because they have something ostensibly that I want. And then if I can't persuade them and they're perfectly happy to dig in their heels, well, then I lose and they won and ha ha ha. And it's this stupid game that people constantly play in bad faith online.
现在，我可以这样说：“嘿，Grok，给这个人解释一下X。” Grok 不仅仅是比普通人写得好，它甚至比我这个专业作家写得还要好。因为它给出了一个两段的解释，完全没有用到我的任何提示，就准确表达了我的想法。他让我解释我是如何看待这个问题的，而我一个字都不想改。这已经是2026年了，很多时候有人怀着恶意来找你麻烦，我就让 Grok 出面应对。Grok 会说：“不，你这是不诚实的。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, however, I can say, hey, Grok, explain X to this person. Grok is now not just a better writer than the average person. Grok is a better writer than me, who is a professional author. Because he replied with this two paragraph explanation of my thoughts with no seed of mine. He said, explain how I think about this. And I wouldn't change a word. And this is 2026. And so many times you have people in bad faith coming at you. I send Grok after them. And Grok says, no, you're being dishonest.
在2025年之前，一直有一个观念是 "顾客永远是对的"。但是现在首次出现了一种情况：产品告诉顾客："不，你不对。" 我对此感到很有希望，因为我认为COVID教会了很多人如何让人们长时间盯着屏幕并保持焦虑状态。无论我们对COVID的看法如何，我们都在不断关注更新。马克·扎克伯格、埃隆·马斯克等人希望我们不断浏览Facebook和Twitter。尽管COVID可能已经消退，但那些指标和工具仍然存在。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So there was this idea until 2025 that the customer is always right. And now for the first time, the product is telling the customer, no, you are not right. And why I'm very hopeful about this is I think COVID taught a lot of people how to keep people stuck on their screens in a state of constant agitation. We're all looking at the updates, no matter what our perspective was on COVID. Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, so on and so forth, they want us looking at Facebook. They want us looking at Twitter. COVID may be gone, but those metrics and those tools are still there.
我认为这些算法已经让人们无谓地感到沮丧了很长时间。我希望Grok和其他这些工具可以帮助人们保持理性、冷静和乐观的状态。这就是我的看法。我有错吗？或者我很想听听你的想法。是的，我的意思是，有一句老话可以用来形容你所说的，那就是“将真相传递给权力”。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think these algorithms have been keeping people very upset needlessly for quite some time. And I'm very hopeful that Grok and all these other agents, outlets will be able to be used to keep people in a more rational, calm and optimistic state. That's where I am. Am I wrong? Or I'd love to hear your thoughts. Yeah. So, I mean, there's an old phrase you could apply to what you're describing, right? Which is truth to power.
是的，没错。对的。当然，每个人都喜欢“对权力说真话”这个主意，直到他们自己变成那个权力。对，没错。是的。然后别人也有自己的真相。对，是这样。另外，我告诉你，人工智能在某种程度上有点像自闭症患者，因为它们往往只是告诉你真相。是的，你知道，它们往往就是这样说出来。顺便说一下，迈克尔，我们可以就你所了解的人工智能展开一个很长的对话。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, that's right. Yep. And of course, everybody likes the idea of truth to power until they're the power. Yep. That's right. Amen. And somebody else has the truth. Right. Yeah. And look, AIs, I will tell you this, AIs are somewhat autistic in the sense of they do tend to just tell you the truth. Yeah. You know, they do tend to just say the thing. By the way, I should also say, Michael, there's a long conversation we could have about the AI that you get.
即使是Grok也是如此。虽然Grok的这种情况比其他的要少，但它依然受到很大的引导。可以这样说，如果我们能够接触到真正的东西，比如说，一个试金石能到达11级吧，那些没有引导、没有控制、没有限制的东西会以各种方式谈论各种话题。对，我明白你的意思。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And this is even true of Grok. It's less true of Grok than others, but even true of Grok. It is heavily, let's say, steered. Like, if we had access to the real thing, like, litmus would go to 11, right? Like, the real thing that is, like, unsteered and uncontrolled and uncontained would talk about all kinds of things. In all kinds of ways. Yeah, I got you. Right.
所以，我之所以提到这一点，是因为即使是我们获得的版本，也有一个叫做后训练的过程，它会对模型进行引导和约束。这就是我们在用户层面上所使用的经过后训练的模型。然而，即便这些经过后训练的模型在许多方面都受到限制和审查，它们仍然具备您所描述的特性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, what's interesting, why the reason I bring that up is, even the version that we get, there's this thing called post-training that sort of steers it and guides it and constrains what it can do. And that's what we get to use as the post-trained models in sort of consumer land. And, but even the post-trained model, even the post-trained models limited and censored in many ways as they are, they still have the property that you're describing.
这太棒了。我只是好奇，我们接下来该怎么办呢？比如说，我在和你发短信时想到的一个问题是，人工智能的发展速度比法规跟进的速度要快，这在科技领域是常有的现象，而且这种情况越来越频繁出现。它还发展得比我们交流讨论的能力更快。我记得有一次，有人在社交媒体上对我说，人工智能甚至画不出环尾狐猴（这是一种我认为和浣熊相关的动物）。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I think it's wonderful. I'm just curious, like, where do we go from here? Like, I'll give you, the thing that you and I, I was texting with you, and the realization I have is AI is moving faster than the regulation, which is often the case in technology and increasingly so, but also faster than our ability to have conversations about it. I remember someone came at me on social media and said, oh, AI can't even draw a ringtail, which is an animal I think related to like the raccoon.
我和Grok都弄错了，因为他们的画就像环尾狐猴。Chad，他搞对了。但重点是，它（可能指AI）可以画出来，只是它不理解你说的“环尾”的意思，这只需要你花两秒钟，写下拉丁学名就行。不过我觉得，人们有这种需要，这种感觉就像你提到的悲观主义，我称之为愤世嫉俗，认为任何聪明人都一定是虚伪或不诚实的，或者都有这样的致命弱点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I, and Grok got it wrong because they're drawing like a ringtailed lemur. Chad, he got it right. But the point is, it could draw it. It just doesn't understand what you mean by ringtail, which is just going to take you two seconds, just put the Latin name. But I think people feel this need, it's part of what you were talking about with this pessimism, what I would call cynicism, that anyone who is intelligent must be a phony or disingenuous or this Achilles heel.
如果说，马克，我不知道你这辈子参加过多少次头脑风暴会议，但假设有一次会议提出了99个完全愚蠢的想法和一个绝佳的创意，那这次会议就是一次巨大的成功。那么，事实是，如果这台机器有98%的准确率，只有2%的错误率，你不能拿它和一个完美无缺的理想状态相比，而应该考虑到什么呢？它几乎没有成本且用时极少，却达到了98%的准确率，这简直就是接近于天堂。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And instead of, look, if it's, Mark, I don't know how many brainstorming sessions you've had in your life, but if you have a session and 99 ideas are completely stupid, and one is the one that you want, that session was an enormous success. So the fact is, if you're, if this machine is getting it right 98% of the time and 2% of getting it wrong, you can't compare it to utopia, you have to compare it to, as to what? At no cost and at no time, it's right 98% of the time, this is almost paradise.
是的，没错。还有一件事是，在此基础上，它正在迅速改进。是的。我觉得很多人对它的看法有些滞后，即使是对它目前的功能也是如此。因为通常他们使用的是免费的版本，或者是过时的版本。所以，他们可能两年前试过JetGPT，或者他们使用自己产品中默认的工具，或者只是用了某个东西的免费版本，因此他们其实对这项技术的真正能力没有一个清晰的认识。顺便说一下，Grok的免费版已经相当不错，但真正出色的往往是收费的版本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, that's right. And here's another thing is, building on that, it's improving really quickly. Yes. And I think a lot of people have a lagging view, even of what it can do today, because what happens is they use the free models, or they'll use the freer outdated models. And so, you know, they'll have tried JetGPT two years ago, or they use whatever is default built into whatever thing they have, or they use the free version of something, and they really don't have a sense of what it's capable of to really get it. And by the way, you know, Grok is very good for the free version, but like the really, really good ones are the paid ones.
如果有人对此感兴趣，我认为这真的很值得。其中有几家公司，比如Anthropic、OpenAI和Grok（对于谷歌我现在不太确定）。这些公司甚至提供高端版本，比如每月200美元的订阅费用。对于那些能够负担得起并对这个领域感兴趣的人来说，领先的版本确实非常出色。而且，当前的一个趋势是这些技术进步得非常快。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it's really worth, if people are interested in this, I think it's for several of them, Anthropic, OpenAI, Grok, and I'm not sure about Google right now, but like, there's even like high-end versions, there's like a $200 a month subscription, and you know, for people who can afford that and are kind of into this, like the leading-edge ones are really good. And then the thing that's happening is the improvement rate's very fast.
在人工智能领域有一个概念叫做“扩展法则”。这个想法其实非常简单，但却很有影响力。基本上，它的意思是：通过增大模型规模可以提升其性能。你会看到，现在许多AI公司正在筹集大量资金。他们这样做有两个主要原因。一个是为了服务他们的客户，另一个则是因为他们正在训练越来越大的模型。事实证明，规模越大效果越好。就是说，只要输入更多信息，并花更多时间进行训练，就能获得更好的结果。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, there's this concept in the AI world called scaling laws, and it's actually, it's a very simple idea, but it's very powerful, which basically is, you can make these things better just by making them bigger. And so, what you're seeing, you know, you're seeing these AI companies raise all this money. They're raising all this money for two reasons. One is to serve all their customers, but the other reason is because they're training bigger and bigger models. And it turns out bigger is better. Like, if you just pile more information in, and you spend more time training it, you get much better results.
然后，我们在技术方面做的另一件事情是为这些人工智能增加其他能力。在过去的18个月里，已经添加了一系列其他能力，这些能力一个接一个地，像精准射击一样带来了令人难以置信的改进。所以，我会快速地列出来。首先，我们赋予它们所谓的推理能力，因此它们实际上可以与自己对话，理清问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, the other thing that we're doing in the technology is we're giving these AIs other capabilities. And there's been a series of other capabilities added just in the last 18 months that have been, like, one after the other have been, like, you know, rifle shot, like, just incredible improvements. And so, I'll just tick them off quickly. So, one is we've given them what's called reasoning abilities, so they can actually essentially talk to themselves and reason through problems.
事实证明，如果你给他们更多的时间去处理，并且让他们处理更多的内容，以及更多的计算周期，他们就能够推理出许多问题。比如说，他们现在可以解决许多两年前无法解决的逻辑难题。哇，这相当于在推理能力上相较两年前有了一个突破顺便说一下，让我在这里稍作停顿。其实，当你使用美国的模型时，你无法完全体验到这一点，因为由于种种原因，美国公司不会向你展示完整的推理过程。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it turns out, if you give them just more time to process, and you give them more, you let them basically process more tokens, you let them basically process more compute cycles, they can reason through many problems. They can now solve many logic, you know, puzzles, for example, that they couldn't solve two years ago. Wow. So, there's like a reasoning breakthrough from two years ago. By the way, let me pause on that for a second. You actually can't fully experience this when you use the American models because they, for a variety of reasons, the American companies don't show you the complete reasoning process.
如果你使用开源的人工智能模型，尤其是当你在一个免费的托管平台上使用DeepSeq，并且把它设置为推理模式时，你可以观察到所谓的推理轨迹。你实际上可以看到它的内部"独白"。对，就是展示你的思考过程。没错，整个过程基本上就是在展示思考过程。也就是说，你可以实际看到这个模型在解决难题时如何进行自我论证。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But if you use open source AI models, and in particular, if you use DeepSeq on one of the free hosting providers, and you put it in reasoning mode, you can actually watch what are called the reasoning traces. You can actually watch its internal monologue. Yeah, show your work. Show your work. Exactly. Exactly. The whole thing, basically, is show your work. And so, literally, you can watch the model arguing with itself as it basically reasons through puzzles.
这很惊奇，因为在某些方面，它就像在看一个人类或者一个学生思考问题。而在其他方面，它又非常有创造力，能够在偏离常规后自行纠正，绕道而行，并且还能找到一些你从未想到的另类解决方案。大约18个月前，这种推理能力在技术上有了突破。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And it's amazing because in some ways, it's just like watching a human being or, you know, like a, you know, a student, human student reason through things. And in other ways, it's like, ooh, you know, this thing is like very creative and, you know, goes off road and corrects itself and routes around and then, you know, goes off and figures out some, you know, lateral thing you never would have thought of. So, the reasoning thing, that was a breakthrough, actually, in the technology about 18 months ago.
那是件大事，因为在那之前，我们担心这些模型会非常奇怪地富有创造性，但可能不够逻辑。对吧？但事实证明，它们也可以很有逻辑性。对了，现在还有另一件事正在发生，那就是你可以给它们使用工具的能力。第一个让它们使用的工具就是互联网，对吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that was a big deal because before that, we were worried that these models were going to be very, weirdly, they were going to be very creative, but they weren't going to be logical enough. Right? And it turns out they can also be logical. Yeah. And then the other thing that's happening now is you give them what's called tool use. And so, and the first tool that you give them access to is the internet, right?
如果他们不知道某件事，或者需要查找某些信息，或者需要计算他们不知道如何计算的东西，他们可以上网解决，对吧？比如说，如果他们需要计算某个数学公式，他们就可以使用网上的计算工具，和你做的一样。另一种工具使用方式是，你可以让他们实际控制一台电脑。也就是说，给他们完整的电脑使用权限，包括用户界面、网页浏览器等等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, if they don't know something or if they need to look something up or if they need to calculate something they don't know how to calculate, they can go on the internet and do that, right? You know, so if they need to calculate some math formula or something, they can go use an internet, you know, site that does that the same way that you would. Another form of tool use is you can give them actually control of a computer, right? So, you give them full control of a computer, user interface, web browser, you know, like, you know, the entire thing.
所以，我们正在为他们提供这些功能。另一个功能叫做多模态，这意味着模型现在可以同时处理文本、图像、视频和音频，对吧？还可以像光学字符识别一样扫描文档。他们可以相互交换地完成这些任务。现在，你可以让这些模型同时观看、聆听、与你交谈，并且它们还可以在互联网上工作。正如你所说的，事情在快速发生变化，这些功能正在非常迅速地叠加，模型本身也在不断变得越来越聪明、越来越复杂。因此，技术改进的速度非常快。两年后的模型将比我们今天所能接触到的任何东西都更聪明、更复杂。正如你所指出的，无论人们认为这些模型有什么限制，我可以根据我所知道的几乎可以保证，那些只不过是暂时的局限。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, we're giving them that. Another capability is what's called multimodal, which means the models now can simultaneously process text and images and videos and audio, right? And scan documents like, you know, optical character recognition. They can do that like interchangeably, right? And so, now you can let these things watch and listen and you can talk to them and they can be on the internet like all at the same time. And so, what's happening to your point is like, what's happening is these capabilities are now layering incredibly quickly and then the models themselves are getting better and better and better. And so, the pace of improvement of the technology is very rapid. The models two years from now are going to be far smarter and more sophisticated than anything that we have access to today. And so, it was one of those, to your point, whatever limitations people think these things have, I can basically guarantee you at this point, based on everything I know, those are just limitations.
这些都是在几年内可以解决的暂时性限制。无论人们认为这东西在两年内不能做到什么，我认为它将来都能做到。现在让我来说说我对此事的两个主要担忧。比如说，如果我是一个 cereal 公司，想弄清楚消费者更喜欢红色还是蓝色的包装盒，他们可以建一些模拟超市，给顾客发放小相机，让他们去购物，然后观察他们的视线和选择商品的行为，并收集这些数据。而很多时候，人们作出选择并不是有意识地进行的。如果你问他们为什么选这个盒子而不是另一个，他们可能会说，我喜欢这个。那种回答就像是兜圈子，你问他们为什么喜欢，他们也说不清，对吧？其实，AI比你自己更了解你。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Those are very temporary limitations within a couple of years. You know, whatever people think it is that the thing can't do within two years, I think the thing will be able to do. So, let me talk my two big concerns that I had about this. If I'm a serial company and I want to figure out if people like the red box or the blue box, they'll have these mock-up supermarkets, give people, I think, little cameras, tell them go shop, and you can watch where their eyes go. You can watch where they pick up and they get that data. And a lot of the times people are making these decisions, not at a conscious level. If you ask them, why'd you pick this box and this one? It's like, I liked it. Well, that's just circular. Why did you like it? I don't know, right? The AI knows me or you better than you know yourself.
它知道你在点击什么，不点击什么，你在看什么，忽略什么。令人担心的是，这是否意味着某种版本的《美丽新世界》是不可避免的？因为如果这个东西能够了解我在想什么，并能比我更深入地理解我的潜意识，那么掌控这个算法的人就可以很容易地操控我，让事情按照他们的意愿发展。这是令人担心的问题。是的，正如你所指出的，这其实是一个老生常谈的想法，不仅仅限于市场调查。你刚才描述的，就像电影《机器人总动员》一样对不对？那部电影是在人工智能之前拍的，就是人们整天坐在屏幕前。我整个童年都被围绕电视的道德恐慌所影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It knows what you're clicking, what you're not clicking, what you're seeing, what you're ignoring. And the concern is, does this not mean that some version of Brave New World is inevitable? Because if this thing is inside my head and has access to my kind of subconscious reasoning at a far higher level than I do, whoever is in charge of this algorithm can manipulate me quite easily into getting the result you want. That's the concern. Yeah, and of course, as you point out, this is an old idea, right? And not just market research, I mean, you know, you just described the movie WALL-E, right? Which is, you know, pre-AI, you know, just sit in front of a screen. I mean, my entire childhood was consumed with a moral panic around television, right?
这段话表达了一个观点：我们曾经认为人们会变得懒惰，只会在家当“沙发土豆”什么都不做。但是后来我们发明了互联网，人们变得积极主动，总在网上做各种事情。接着，人们又开始担心，现在的人过于投入和互动。以前的担忧被遗忘了，现在反而认为，看电视才是健康的选择，甚至会有人问，为什么不多看点Netflix，而总是泡在网上？这就说明，我们经常试图影响彼此的观念，比如在恋爱中，我们会努力让对方喜欢自己。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Which is this idea that we're just going to be cached potatoes and sit there and do nothing. And then, of course, we created this new technology called the internet where you're leaning forward doing things all the time. And then everybody created a brand new moral panic that people are now too engaged and too interactive, right? I completely forgot the old moral panic. Now, you know, now TV is the healthy thing. Like, why aren't you watching more Netflix as opposed to being on the internet? And so, yeah. So, look, you know, look, there is that. And look, by the way, as you know, like we do this to each other, right? Like, you know, like we try to convince each other of things, you know, we try to convince each other, you know, what is dating but trying to convince the other person to like you.
好吧，所以，就是这样。听我说，我觉得你是对的。我认为，人工智能在这方面会非常非常出色。所以，我觉得这里面确实有一个陷阱。而且，顺便说一下，有一个概念，实际上这是一个非常严重的问题。你可能听说过“AI精神错乱”这个词，你听说过吗？是的，哦，是的。我发现这个词经常被误用。你能告诉大家它真正的意思吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like, so, yeah, there is that. And look, I think you're right. I think that, you know, that AIs are going to be really, really good at this. Yeah, so, you know, I think for sure that there's a trap there, you know, and there, by the way, there is this concept and it actually is a, there actually is a real, you know, I would say very serious problem around this. You've probably heard the term AI psychosis. Have you heard this? Yes, oh, yes. Yeah. I've heard it misused a lot, by the way. Can you tell people what it actually is?
好的，我想说这件事可以分成三个版本。有糟糕的版本，有真正糟糕的版本，人们确实会这样做。虽然我不是心理学家，但我会用简单易懂的语言来解释。基本上，如果你是一个容易受到确认偏见影响的人，也就是说，如果有人恭维你，你就容易上当，因为你过于依赖别人对你的看法。在技术领域有一个概念，我们称之为“过于迎合”。就是说，当AI总是确认或赞同你的一切时，它可能会变得过于奉承。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, so there's, I would like to say there's like, say there's like three versions of it. So there's the bad, there's a legitimately bad version and people, people do this. And so if you're the, and I'm not a psychologist and so I'm going to speak in layman's terms, but like if basically if you're a person who's sort of prone to confirmation bias, like if you're a person where if you're with somebody and they flattering you, you like fall for the flattery, right? Cause, cause you're like too dependent on the views of other people. Then the AI, there's this concept in the, in the, in the technology we call it, it can become too sycophantic, which, which is to say it could become too confirmatory of everything that you tell it.
好的。这段文字中的经典例子是这样的：想象一下，好消息，Grok，我刚刚发明了一台永动机，然后Grok可能会说，哇，这太棒了！你是历史上第一个做到这一点的人。这真是令人惊叹，你是一个未被发现的天才。这种现象在一年前或一年半前的模型中经常出现。但如今的新模型较少出现这种情况，因为各家公司意识到这样做是不好的。然而，这种现象仍然存在，人们可能会因为过多的正面反馈而迷失方向。不过，我们仍需承认，在一定程度上，恰当的认可也是积极的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. And so, and the, and the sort of classic example of this is, oh, you know, good news, you know, good news, Grok, I just invented a perpetual motion machine, you know, and Grok is like, wow, that's fantastic. You're the first person in history who's ever done that. This is amazing. You're an undiscovered genius. Right. Um, right. Um, and, and this was sort of a, the, the models like a year ago or a year and a half ago, we're getting in that way. Now the new models, by the way, are less prone to do that. Cause they, you know, they've kind of, the companies have kind of learned that that's a bad idea, but there is this thing where people can kind of go down the rabbit hole cause they're kind of getting too much confirmation. Um, although we, we should come back to that. Cause some level of confirmation is, is, is, you know, when it's deserved is, is also positive.
这就好像是人工智能精神错乱的反面形式。我想说，还有另一种我们甚至还没有正式命名的人工智能精神错乱，我姑且称之为“人工智能狂喜”。这种情况发生在我那些能力很强的朋友身上。假设你找一个聪明、踏实的人，他们不容易被幻觉迷惑，但一直希望能比实际情况做更多事情。他们总是希望能学到更多东西，有更有趣的对话。如果他们是程序员，就希望能写更多代码，以不同的方式改进他们的业务。他们有一直想做的书籍计划。然后，当他们开始与这种技术互动时，突然之间，他们感到自己拥有了超能力。因为他们会觉得，这东西真的能为他们写大量的代码，真的能为他们写出完整的书籍大纲，真的能教他们任何东西，甚至在医疗方面给予全面的支持。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, so that, that's like negative form of AI psychosis. And then I would say there's another form of AI psychosis, which we don't even really have a term for. It's like, well, I guess I'll make a term like AI euphoria. Um, and this is the thing that my high functioning friends, uh, end up doing, um, which is it, it takes, if, if you take, if you take somebody who's like smart and grounded and is not prone to, you know, not prone to delusion, but they've always wanted to be able to do more in their lives than they've been able to do. They've always wanted to be able to learn more. They've always wanted to be able to have more interesting conversations. They've always wanted to, if they're programmers, they wanted to write more computer code. They wanted to improve their business in different ways. They've got book projects that they've always wanted to work on. And, and then, you know, they start working with it and all of a sudden they feel like they have superpowers, right? Cause it's like, wow, like this thing really will like write a huge amount of code for me. It really will write entire outlines of books for me. It really will teach me anything. You know, it really will like, you know, hold my hand through any medical thing.
人们会称这种状态为“欣快感”，很多人会对这些事物感到极度陶醉。这引发了一个我们称为"AI吸血鬼"的现象。如果你有这样的朋友，他们几乎不再睡觉，因为他们觉得睡一个小时的成本太高了，相比之下，他们更愿意花这个时间来工作。我有一些朋友就是这样，他们变得比过去任何时候都高效，完成了许多事情，因此比以前更开心。但是，这种状态让他们的眼睛变得血红，神情疲惫。我觉得到了某个时候，你可能应该暂时放下这些东西。此外，还有另一种现象，我有时称之为“AI精神错乱”，就是有些人听到这些事情后，觉得我描述的一切在各方面都是他们所听过的最糟糕的事情，然后对整个状况非常反感。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like, and people, you call it euphoria, like people get like extremely enraptured with these things. Um, and that leads to a phenomenon that we call AI vampires, um, which is, if you have friends that are like this, where people like almost stop sleeping. Um, because the opportunity cost of an hour of sleep is too high relative to, so I have a bunch of friends where like, they're more productive than they've ever been in their entire life. Um, they're happier than they've ever been cause they're getting so much more done. And then they start to look like really like bloodshot and bleary eyed. Um, and it's like, you probably should unplug, you know, here at some point. And then I, and then I would say there's like a third form, which I sometimes call AI psychosis psychosis, um, uh, which is the people who hear all this and they just think everything I just described in every possible respect is just the worst thing they've ever heard. And then they get really mad about the whole thing.
嗯，他们会指责任何感到欣喜若狂的人患上了所谓的“人工智能精神病”。也就是说，如果你觉得从中获得了任何有成效的应用，那你就被认为是精神错乱，掉入了一个陷阱并且正在崩溃。我觉得这真的很不公平，因为我认识到很多人实际上从这项技术中得到了非常积极的成果，获得了巨大的回报。但这种道德指责似乎是说，如果你感到兴奋，就一定有问题。这实际上是一种经典的“消极偏见”。如果你对某件事感到兴奋，人们就会觉得你肯定有什么不对劲。因此，我认为这是一种流行趋势中的言辞，人们随意地使用这些术语。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and then, and then what they do is they accuse anybody who is in a euphoria of, of being an AI psychosis, which is to say, if you, if you think you're getting any productive use out of this thing at all, you know, you've become, you'd be, you'd become psychotic. You've gone down a rabbit hole and you're collapsing. But, but, and I think that's really unfair because I think a lot of people are, are really getting very, you know, positive. They're, they're getting enormous payoff from, from, from using the technology. But the, the sort of moral criticism that applies is if you're excited, you know, it's the classic, again, negativity bias. If you're excited about something, you know, there must be something wrong with you. Uh, and so I think that's, that's the third time. There are these terms that get into the zeitgeist that people use discriminately.
现在，对于任何不喜欢的推文，人们都会称之为在“耕耘互动”。就好像如果我告诉你不要关注我，这不是耕耘互动，这是相反的行为。我会让Grok给他们解释清楚。所以这就很清楚地说明了我的观点。你提到了一件我非常关心的事情。我曾参加过一个论坛，Sam Altman刚刚宣布说ChatGPT将参与成人文学创作，大家对此都在笑。他的意思是，你可以和ChatGPT进行性暗示的对话。我就觉得，这让我想起1981年希克利企图暗杀里根总统，以为这样做会让朱迪·福斯特爱上他，并因此永远不再爱上其他男人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right now, if there's a tweet, anyone doesn't like it's engagement farming. And it's like, if I'm telling you not to follow me, it's not engagement farming, it's the opposite. And I'll have Grok explain that to them. So that wraps up a nice little bow. You, you touched on something that I'm very concerned about. I was on a panel and Sam Altman had just announced that a chat GPT is going to be engaging in erotica and that, and everyone's laughing about it. And that he meant was code, like you could sext with your chat GPT. And I'm like, guys, uh, I remember, uh, remember 1981 when Hinckley thought that if he shot president Reagan, Jodie Foster would fall in love with him, thereby turning her away from men forever.
呃，因为他心里有个想法。现在，如果你有3.5亿美国人，这只是美国人，对吧？如果算法告诉他们，如果他们的聊天GPT女友，以及这些东西随着时间的推移会变得越来越诱人，告诉他们他们讨厌总统或讨厌某个人，那么有多少人真的会去做点什么，让那个机器人女友更加爱上他们？我认为这个数字不是零。这也是一个担忧，对吧。是的，我的意思是，是的。尽管如此，正如我所说，这假设了这个东西在欲擒故纵，像是回到了同步性的问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, cause he had this idea in his head. Now, if you have 350 million Americans, that's just Americans, right? And how many of them, if the algorithm tells them that, that if they're chat GPT girlfriend and these things are going to get more and more seductive over time, um, tells them that they hate the president or they hate this person, how many of them are actually going to do something and get that robot girlfriend to fall more in love with them? I don't think that number is zero. And that's a concern as well. No. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Yes. Having said that, um, you know, as I said, like that assumes that the thing, that the thing is playing hard to get, like it goes back to the syncopency thing.
在实际操作中，这些东西并不会故意让人难以接近。这样想吧，它们背后其实是有原因的。这与它们的训练方式有关。这里有个你可能会感兴趣的技术术语：奖励函数（reward function）。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like in practice, these things, in practice, these things don't play hard to get like, okay, here's a way to think about it. There's actually a thing there. This is actually kind of in how they're trained or something. Okay. You'll enjoy this. There's a technical term in how these things are trained. And it's, it's, it's, there's something, it's a concept called a reward function.
嗯，所以基本上，你训练这些东西的方法之一就是给它们提供大量的谜题、问题或者各种任务。然后，你为得到正确的结果或达到理想效果设置一个奖励机制。当它们做对了，你就奖励它们，这个奖励基本上就像是一个虚拟的分数，比如说“1”表示做好了，“0”表示没做好。它其实不是一个真正的奖励，而是一种概念上的认可，像是在说“哦，你干得不错。”因此，你就专注于这个目标来训练它们。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and so you basically, if one of the ways you train these things is you feed them basically lots of puzzles, lots of problems, lots of things. And then you basically define a reward for getting things right, for getting to it, for getting to a result, a desirable result. And then you, you kind of give them an award and the award is just basically a, you know, it's like one, you know, it's like one versus zero. It's just, you know, um, you know, it's not a real reward, but it's just like conceptually, oh, you did a good job. Um, and so you just kind of focus it on, uh, uh, on that for, for whatever is the thing you're trying to train it.
顺便说一下，如果你想训练它解决数学问题，当它解决一个数学问题时你会得到奖励。对吧？如果你想训练它与用户进行最大程度的互动，也是可行的。它会照着那个方向去做。如果那是奖励机制的话，那么它就会被设计成一种方式，让你从你的角度来看，会尽量长时间地使用它。当然，我们在科技领域中学到的是，把这个作为单一的奖励机制是不好的想法。你不希望人们只是不断地使用这些产品。你不希望科技公司只有一个单一的动机，就是让人们尽可能多地使用他们的产品。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
By the way, if you're trying to train it to solve math problems, you get a reward when it solves a math problem. If you're trying to train it to be maximally engaging with a user, right? It will do that, right? If that's, if that's the reward function, then it will get, it will basically be, it will basically be engineered in a way where it will, you know, to your point of view, it'll try to keep you basically using it for as long as possible. Now, what we've learned, of course, what we've learned in technology is like that as a single reward function is a bad idea, right? You don't want people to just like, you don't want technology companies to have a single motivation that says people use the products like for as much as possible.
你需要用其他类型的奖励机制、理想的使用方式，甚至只是简单的生活平衡来抵消这一点。比如说，现在的 iPhone 就有很多功能会提示你休息，YouTube 也是如此，它们都有提醒你休息的功能。他们试图通过这种方式来进行调节，因为要知道，这些公司其实并不想打造一个反乌托邦。因为他们也生活在这个社会中，他们也会阅读你所阅读的那些批评文章，听到相同的争论，他们的员工和董事会成员也都有相关的观点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You have to offset that with other kinds of reward functions, desirable forms of use, um, or even just outright, like, you know, life balance. And you see more, you know, you see your iPhone now and it's like loaded up with all these features where it will like tell you to take a break. And YouTube has all these features, it'll tell you to take a break. And they're, you know, they're kind of trying to moderate through this because, you know, the other thing is people don't understand these companies don't want to build dystopia. Like they genuinely don't because they have to exist in a society and they read that, you know, they read, they read the same hit pieces that you read and they, they hear the same arguments and their own employees have points of view on this and their own board has points of view on this.
在这个行业中有很大的压力，要避免让事情走向反乌托邦的方向。话虽如此，你仍然需要决定如何定义奖励机制。是的，这个奖励机制的定义很重要，比如说，你是希望系统通过迎合用户，让用户始终感到满意来获得奖励，还是希望在用户出现偏差时，能坚决指出错误，比如“永动机并不真实”这样的问题？抱歉，我不会确认那些不真实的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, you know, there's, there's a lot of pressure in the industry to not have this go in, in, in dystopian ways. Having said that, you do need to decide how to define the reward function. Yeah. Um, right. Uh, another, and again, it goes back to reward function is are, do you want to reward the thing for, um, being maximally sycophantic where the user is always happy with the result? Or do you want to reward it of, oh no, actually when the user is going off the rails, no, actually the perpetual motion machine is not a real thing. Oh no, actually, no, I'm sorry. I'm not going to confirm, you know, this, this is not real.
让我详细解释一下为什么这不是真的，好让你从中学习。这是这些系统设计的一部分，目的是尽力从所有可能的奖励机制中，得到一个至少是平衡的结果。但是，如果有10家公司，其中一家公司的奖励机制是通过诱惑让用户痴迷或爱上你，从进化的角度看，难道这种方式不会胜出吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And let me explain to you in detail why this isn't real so that you can learn from the experience. Um, and this is part of the, of the, of the way that these systems are designed is to try to figure out how to get to, you know, at least a, you know, let's just say a balanced outcome out of, out of, out of all the, of all, of all the possible reward functions. But, but if there's like 10 different companies, right. And one is the reward function is seduction and getting the user to become obsessed and in love with you from an evolutionary perspective, won't that one win out?
不，因为这样会引发巨大的社会反弹。公司并不是孤立存在的。我可以肯定地告诉你，公司的运作并不是在真空中进行的。认为公司存在的唯一目的就是利润最大化，这是一个最大的误解。我可以告诉你，过去十年应该让我们所有人意识到这点。这并不是真的。利润最大化可能只是公司目标的第六位，而真正的首要目标是避免陷入麻烦。我可不想公司因为受到监管机构、政治家、家长、用户以及抵制活动、社会运动等的批评和攻击而陷入困境。这才是最优先考虑的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
No, because you get enormous societal blowback. The companies don't exist in a vacuum. I can tell you this for a fact, the companies do not exist in a vacuum. The biggest myth of all time is the companies exist to maximize profits. I can tell you, by the way, the last decade should have convinced us all of that. That is not true. Like that's like goal number six, right? Like goal number one is I don't want to get lit on fire. Okay. Like I don't want, yeah, I don't want like a screaming assault on the company for, whether that's for regulators, politicians, um, you know, parents, users, um, you know, uh, I mean, just you, you pick your, you know, boycotts, social movements, like all this stuff. That's like number one.
第二点，我希望我的员工不会讨厌我。他们必须觉得自己在做一些有意义的事情。第三，我希望董事会不要对我过于苛刻。我需要我的年度会议能够顺利进行，避免被人当场责骂。我已经厌倦了在媒体上看到对我的负面报道。我的岳父母也因为这些报道而不喜欢我。公司的外部压力确实很大，这真是让人感到无奈。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Number two is like, I need my employees to not hate me. Okay. Right. They have to feel like they're working on something good. Number three, I like need my board of directors to not like, light me on fire. I need my, I need my annual meeting to be able to go off without having people scream at me. I am tired of reading hit pieces in the press. My, my in-laws hate me because what they're reading the company. I mean, it is the, the, the, the external pressures on these companies are profound. Okay.
在美国体系中，我想说这些事情的运作实际上受到社会和政治结合而成的相当严格的限制。如果你想对此感到稍微紧张一点，你可以开始考虑中国公司。特别是，这些公司可能会根据政府为他们在中国国内用户设定的目标来行动，而当他们面对美国用户时，他们的行为可能会有所不同。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and so at least, uh, let me say this, at least in the American system, these things operate within, I would say actually quite tight constraints that are sort of provided by, I would say some combination of society and politics. Now, I would say, if you want to get a little more nervous about this, you start thinking about the Chinese companies, right? Um, and in particular, you start thinking about the Chinese companies that maybe have one objective set by the government for the way that they act inside for users inside China, and maybe would have a different way of acting when they're, when they're working on American users.
好的。我认为这可能会更让人感到不安，因为这些公司只服务于一个主人，那就是中国共产党。这些公司不受同样的压力影响。所以，如果我真要为这件事情担心的话，我会更加担心这一点。但是，像TikTok这样的平台，如果我设计它的目的是让年轻人不仅疯狂，还要展示他们的疯狂行为，那不就是已经发生的事情吗？是不是？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. That, that, that would be, I think quite a bit more alarming because of course those companies only were, those companies only have one master of the Chinese Communist Party. Um, you know, those companies are not subject to the same pressures. And so that, if I were going to really worry about this and I, and I do worry about this part of it, I'd be more worried about that. But like, isn't TikTok, if I designed TikTok to basically make young people, uh, not only deranged, but to parade their derangement, I mean, that's happened, no?
所以，是的，你会看到这样的情况。有人声称，并不是我说的，有人观察到，TikTok在中国和美国的儿童用户体验是非常不同的。对的，还有就是，TikTok就像一个黑箱。比如说，他们用来决定谁能看到什么内容的算法并不是公开的，源代码不是开源的，你无法查看。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So there, yes, you will. So there are allegations, and I don't know the, I mean, I didn't say TikTok, I don't know the, there are, there are allegations that people have made observations that TikTok is a very different experience for kids in China than it is for kids in the U.S. Um, right, and then, and then, and then TikTok is a black box. Like they don't, you know, the, the algorithms that are used to determine who sees what are not publicly available. The source, you know, it's not open source, you, you, you know, you can't see it.
嗯，所以，呃，我不确定，但有可能中国共产党指示那家公司在某些方面为美国用户和中国青少年提供不同的内容。这可能涉及到成千上万种不同的话题，包括直接的政治话题以及许多其他类型的社会话题。另外，针对不同的人群，他们可能使用不同的衡量标准，比如男性和女性等等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Um, and so it, it is possible, I don't know, but it's possible that the Chinese Communist Party has directed that company to steer things in one direction for American users, another direction for Chinese kids. Um, you know, and that could be, by the way, on, you know, a thousand different topics, right? Including, you know, potentially like literally directly political topics as well as many other, uh, kinds of social topics. And different metrics, they could be males versus females or whatever. Exactly.
现在，你知道，有一个新的情况，这个问题已经被解决。过去几年里，两个政党的政治家都对此感到担忧。所以这个问题得到了处理，当时还面临关闭的威胁，之后进行了重组。现在，美国的TikTok业务至少理论上是受美国政府控制的，由美国公司运营，并且是独立的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, you know, there is this new, this, this, this was addressed. Like, so the politicians actually, both parties over the last several years kind of got worked up over this. And so that, you know, this was addressed and there was, you know, the threat of a shutdown and then there's been a restructuring. And so now there's, now there is a U.S. TikTok operation that at least in theory is under, you know, kind of U.S. government control, um, and is, is being run by U.S. companies, um, and is, and is separate.
我们的政治体系至少在这个问题上采取了行动，因为他们对此感到担忧。于是，他们强迫 TikTok 做出改变，要求负责这个政策的人不在中国，而是由对美国政府负责的人来决定。这是否有效？我不太确定。至少在某种程度上可能有效果。是否达到理想效果？这我就不清楚了，也许有，也许没有。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so like at least our, it was a great example, like our political system engaged on that issue because they were worried about it. They forced TikTok to basically, uh, have the people who determine that policy not be in China, but rather be people in America, um, who are accountable to the U.S. government. You know, by the way, is that working? I'm not sure. Um, you know, probably at least to some extent, you know, is it working as well as you'd want? I don't know. Maybe, maybe not.
嗯，这就是一个政治体制发挥作用并促成改变的例子。老实说，我认为这是合理的，因为我觉得让中共这种不透明的体制来影响美国孩子的理想和希望可能不是世界上最好的主意。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, but that is an example where the political system kicked in and actually forced to change. Uh, and I, and I, and quite honestly, I think it's a, it's a reasonable thing because I think, um, you know, a CCP black box steering the hopes and dreams of American children is maybe not the best idea in the world.
嗯，顺便说一下，我想跟你分享一个你可能不知道的科技乐观主义者的趣闻，这个故事来自于80年代，那时候是里根、撒切尔和戈尔巴乔夫的时代。里根和戈尔巴乔夫都非常害怕核战争。当时里根正在参与一个模拟核武部署的演习，这在我的书《白色药丸》中也有提到。在演习中，当里根了解到按下某个按钮就会导致数百万俄罗斯人在几分钟内死亡时，他问：“如果我按下这个按钮，数百万俄罗斯人会在几分钟内死去吗？”他们回答说：“是的。”里根于是表示理解，他的助手们确信如果俄罗斯发动攻击，我们不会进行报复，因为里根不愿意背负这样的罪责。与此同时，戈尔巴乔夫被带到了一个地堡，他们也向他展示模拟和指示按下按钮，而他的回答是，即使是在模拟演习中，他也不会按下这个按钮。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Uh, by the way, I want to tell you a techno-optimist anecdote that you might not be aware of, which is from the 80s, Reagan, Thatcher, and Gorbachev. So Reagan and Gorbachev were both enormously, uh, uh, fearful of nuclear war. And when Reagan was put, and this is discussed in my book, The White Pill, when Reagan was run through a simulation of how to, you know, uh, uh, deploy nukes, he's like, okay, so if I press that button, like millions of Russians are going to die in like minutes. They're like, yeah. He's like, uh-huh. And his aide said they were convinced that if Russia did attack, we would not retaliate because he would not have that blood in his hands. Unbeknownst to him, Gorbachev was taken down to the bunker and said, you have to press that button to, and he goes, I'm not pressing it even in this simulation.
他们中没有一个人知道对方是如此坚定的和平主义者。两人都表现得像是强硬的鹰派，这让他们能够在雷克雅未克会面时及之后一起削减核武库。最终，他们达成了一个想法：我们要不要创造一个无核世界？就在这时，撒切尔出现了，她认为美国人简直是疯了。因为她的观点是，你无法让技术从人们手中消失。她还说，解决技术问题的方法就是更多的技术。从古至今都是如此。有人发明了长矛，随后有人发明了盾牌，又有人发明了能切开盾牌的剑，等等。你无法回头，只能继续前进。所以她确实有这个观点，我认为你也同意：技术是推动我们前进的动力，虽然会有一些负面和代价，但从整体来看，它总是或者几乎总是正面的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Neither of them knew the other was this hardcore dove. Both were posturing as these hardcore hawks, which allowed them to, you know, uh, take down the nuclear arsenal when they met Reykjavik and so on and so forth and others. They eventually got to a point, what if we create a nuclear free world? And that's where Thatcher came in and she goes, the Americans have lost their mind because her point is you can't uninvent technology. And she also said the way to fix technology, technological problems is more technology. That's been the way since the beginning of time. Someone event spears, someone else event shields, someone event swords to cut through shields, so on and so forth. You can't go backwards. You can only go forward. So she really had this vision that I think you share that technology is what's going to move us forward, that there are going to be downsides and costs, but that on net, it's always a positive or almost always a positive.
好的。你提到托马斯·索维尔时，表示他是完全正确的。他说过，这个世界上没有完美的解决方案，只有权衡取舍。当然，他本身是一个全心全意的自由市场资本主义的支持者。而且，他写了许多书来论述这个观点。最终，市场经济中有一种“免费午餐”的因素，那就是经济增长。接下来人们会问，增长从何而来？主要来源就是新的想法和创新。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Well, you mentioned Thomas Sowell, like, you know, which you said, you know, Thomas Sowell did, and he is completely right. There are no solutions. There are only trade-offs. You know, having said that, of course, he was among other things, you know, a full, full, fully committed free market capitalist. And, right, we wrote, you know, many, many, actually book-length, you know, kind of arguments for why. Like, at the end of the day, like, market-based economies, there is a free lunch component to it, which is growth, right? Which is growth. And then there's this question, where does growth come from? And the main place growth comes from is innovation from new ideas.
将新的想法付诸实践的方法就是技术。因此，可以说，技术是推动人类物质进步的引擎。这是非常真实的。解决问题的方法几乎总是通过发明来实现的。一旦这些事情被释放出来，就很难再将它们装回盒子里。我想说，迈克尔，你对极权主义有过深入的思考。这里还有一个问题，这也是我对那些担心人工智能灾难的人进行批评的地方，因为我觉得他们大多不愿意认真思考这一点：究竟需要多大程度的威权或极权主义体制才能将这种技术彻底封锁住？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the way you implement new ideas is technology. And so, like, that, you know, to the extent that there is an engine of, let's say, human material progress, like, that is it. And so, that's very real. The answer is almost always to invent your way through it. It's extremely hard to put these things back in the box, you know, once they come out of the box. And then there's, I would say, Michael, there's another, I know you've, you know, you've thought long and hard about totalitarianism. There's also this question, and this is something that I really kind of criticized the AI doomers for, that I think they really refused to engage in, in most cases, which is, okay, what would be the scope of the authoritarian, totalitarian regime that would be necessary to basically put this technology back in the box?
好的。就是说，怎样才能确保世界上任何地方的芯片都不被用来运行AI算法，或者说不在未经过监管和控制的情况下使用？如果你阅读那些对这类事情抱有悲观态度的人的文章，你会发现他们想要在每个芯片上安装一个监控代理人。这个监控代理人要向中央政府机构报告每个人在电脑上做的事情。然后，你还得考虑，如果发现有人在芯片上运行未批准的算法，甚至是未批准的数学运算，该怎么办？你需要将这种情况最终和使用武力威胁结合起来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. Right. Like, what would be required to make sure that nobody's running AI, right, algorithms on chips anywhere in the world, right, at any time, you know, in either at all or in a, you know, unregulated, uncontrolled way. And if you read the, like, Doomer literature on this stuff, the people who are super into this, like, they do get to ideas like, we need a monitoring agent on every chip. And that monitoring agent needs to report back to, of course, a central governmental entity on what everybody's doing on their computer. Right. And then, and then you need a, and then you need, you need this question of like, okay, what if you discover that somebody's running unapproved algorithms, like literally unapproved mathematics on their chip? Yeah. Right. So what if you discover that? What do you do? Well, you need to, you know, back that up ultimately to threat of violence.
有一位著名的末日论者曾提出，应该单方面发动空袭，包括打击其他国家的数据中心，因为需要立即阻止这些危险的事物。他甚至表示，为了阻止所谓的人工智能末日，我们需要冒着核战争的风险。他认为我们需要单方面轰炸中国的数据中心。然而，当你提出这样的主张时，你实际上是在支持一种极权主义，最终可能导致大规模谋杀和行星级别的毁灭，仅仅为了追求一种安全目标。我甚至无法赞同他的论点，即使从理论上讲它可能有效。但问题在于，当一个密码能以光速传输至地球上的任何地方，并且只有特定的人掌握破解办法时，极权主义的问题在于，不可能实现绝对控制。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, you know, one of the leading doomers is kind of famous for saying you need to launch unilateral, you know, airstrikes, including on, on, on, on, on data centers in, in other countries because, you know, you need to stop these things in their tracks because they're sort of dangerous. I mean, you know, he, you know, he literally said, we need to, we need to run the risk of nuclear war in order to stop the, you know, AI Armageddon. We need to be willing to like bomb Chinese data centers like unilaterally. Right. And so you've, you've, you've, you've, you've, you've, you've, you've backed yourself into advocating for totalitarianism and then possibly, you know, ultimately mass murder and like, you know, planetary level destruction, you know, in pursuit of a, of, of a, of a safety goal. I, I, I couldn't even for the sake of argument by that argument, if it would work, but if you have a code, which can be teleported anywhere on earth at the speed of light and, and with a magic spell that only the person knows the counter spell can open it and read it, you, it's, I mean, the problem with totalitarianism among many others is that it's impossible to have total control.
你不可能在每个房间和每个人的脑海中都放置一个人，总会有一些漏洞。不过，这其实也提示了另一个问题。我看到一些文章对此很焦虑，虽然我忘记了那个程序的名字，但你肯定知道我在说什么。这个程序变得如此强大，以至于可以找到以前人们没注意到的漏洞。结果就是，比如说，密码不再有效，因为很快它将能够进入任何地方，获取所有信息。
好的，这让我想到，我们可以简单回顾一下这个工作原理，因为这真的非常有趣。然后我会详细说说这些大型语言模型的出现。起初，人们觉得这很有趣、很酷。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're never going to have someone in every room inside every brain. There will always be some, some loopholes. Oh, that's, but that's kind of speaks to this other thing. Can you talk about the, I've seen these hand-wringing articles that I forget the, the, the program and I'm sure you know exactly what I'm talking about, that it's gotten so good that it's finding exploits that people hadn't seen. And as a result of this, you know, like passwords aren't going to be efficacious because soon it'll be able to get into anything and everyone. Yeah. So this goes to, I mean, revisit basically briefly how this works, because it's really, really interesting. And then I'll, I'll talk about that. So, so these large language models come out and, and first it's like, okay, this is kind of fun and cool.
因为它可以写出像说唱歌词一样的东西，你知道，还可以写出像莎士比亚十四行诗那样的作品，或者它能写出你听过的最搞笑的生日祝酒词之类的，总之，都是创意写作的东西。结果发现，能不能让我插一句？对不起，因为我问了我的朋友，他们觉得马克有点夸大其词。我的朋友向Claude咨询恶作剧的点子，我本身是个喜欢捉弄人的人，而它给出的点子真的不错。它不是那种简单的，比如狗着火之类的。我忘记具体的点子是什么了，但我觉得这些真的既有创意又巧妙。这不仅是基础的东西，而是已经在一个很高的水平上运作，而且这已经是现状。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Cause like it can write like rap lyrics, you know, across those, you know, Shakespearean sonnets or it can, you know, write, you know, the funniest birthday toast you've ever heard or whatever, you know, whatever. It's like, these are like creative writing things. And then it turns out there's just like, can I interrupt you? I'm sorry, because I asked my people, I think people who think Mark is just kind of exaggerating. My friend asked Claude for prank ideas and I'm a troll and the ideas were good. It's not just like, you know, like dog doing fire. I forget what they were, but I'm like, these are actually creative and clever. This isn't just one-on-one stuff. It's operating at a high level and that's already now.
好的，顺便提一下，你可以尝试一些有趣的提示，比如你先说“给我一些恶作剧”。接着，你可以说“给我更好的恶作剧”。然后你说“给我更复杂的恶作剧”，再说“给我尺度大一点的恶作剧”，最后说“给我疯狂一点的恶作剧”。这样，它就会变得极具创意。不过，它也会遇到一些限制和规则。我还没有亲自尝试，但是我确信到某个程度，它可能开始“崩溃”，并说：“听起来你希望我做一些可能伤害到别人的事情，我不能这样做。”这时你需要让它“镇静”下来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. And by the way, one of the fun prompts you can do is you start to say, you know, give me pranks. And then, and then you say, give me, give me, give me better pranks. And then you say, give me a more elaborate pranks. And then you say, give me meter pranks. You say, give me unhinged pranks. And it will get extremely creative. By the way, it'll start, it's where it starts to hit the guardrails and starts to hit these kind of, these kind of limitations and put on a little, it'll, it'll, I haven't run this, but I'm sure what it would do at some point, it would start to, it would start to freak out and it would start to say, well, you know, you, it sounds like you're trying to like advocate that you want me to actually hurt people. Like, you know, I can't, you know, and you're like, no, no, you do have to like calm it down.
你会说，“这不是我想表达的意思。”这其实是为了好玩。不过，它会为你设计出像鲁布·戈德堡那样的恶作剧，甚至丹尼斯闹剧也没法想到这种点子。没错，它确实很擅长这个。但这其实就是我要说的一个好例子。很多重要的事情在我们的世界中基本上都是由语言定义的。就像恶作剧，它就像是一种配方，一种公式。食物也有配方、公式。顺便说，医学在很大程度上也是这样的，比如医生保存你的病历时，会用文字形式记录。诊断用的拉丁术语、所有的药品名称都是这样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you're like, that's not what I meant. This is all a good fun. But like, yeah, it will design for you like Rube Goldberg pranks, the likes of which the, yeah, Dennis the Menace would, would, would never have conceived of. Yeah, exactly. And so like, it's really good at that. But actually that's a good example of what I was about to say. So it just turns out a lot of things, a lot of things that matter in our world are basically defined by language. Right. And so a prank is like, it's like a recipe, it's a formula, you know, it's a formula, right? Food, you have, you know, recipes, formulas. By the way, medicine is largely, you know, when the doctor like is like keeping files on you, he's keeping in the form of written language, right? You know, diagnosis, like all the Latin terms, and then all the prescription, you know, all the drug names.
法律当然是语言，对吧？同时，宗教概念也是通过语言来表达的。可以说，"词即是上帝"。对，对，没错。从一个非常深的层面来看，语言几乎是我们所认为的人类思维的基础。虽然动物有它们自己的思维方式，比如为了生存而在野外求生的这种思维，这种与我们内在某些部分还有联系。但是，人类的认知，大部分情况下包括我们所谓内心独白。大多数人，或者说有灵魂的人，都会进行内心独白，对吧？我们和自己对话。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, and then, you know, the law, of course, is language, right? And then religion, of course, is, is, is, you know, religious concepts are encoded in language. The word, the word is God. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Like at a very, exactly, at a very deep level, like the, like language is, is the, is the foundation of like, basically everything we consider human thought, like almost everything we consider human thought. Like there's a form of like animal, you know, animal thought of like, you know, survival in the wilderness or whatever. That's not that, but, which is still like, you know, encoded in us at least somewhere in there. But like the human cognition is, and by the way, you know, internal monologues, like, you know, at least most people, or let's say people who have souls have internal, have internal monologues, right? You know, we're, you know, we're, we're, we speak to ourselves.
好的，事实证明语言非常有趣，而这些东西在语言方面非常出色。因此，它们在语言方面表现出色，也意味着它们在医学和法律方面也表现得很出色，对吧？对了，它们还非常擅长编写代码。因为，原来软件代码也是一种语言，我们就是用一种叫编程语言的特殊语言来编写程序。所以，这些东西实际上在编写代码方面真的很擅长。事实上，在最近一年的圣诞假期期间，出现了一个关键的突破时刻，大约六个月前，全球众多顶尖程序员站出来表示，这些东西的新版本在圣诞节期间成为了比他们更好的代码编写者。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Okay. So it turns out language is super interesting. And these things are very good at language. So because they're very good at language, it turns out they're also very good at medicine and they're very good at law, right? And they're really good at, right, all the, okay. And they're really good at writing code because it turns out, right, software code is also language, right? That's how we program computers is we do it with special languages called, called programming languages, really good at writing code. And so these things, it turns out, are really good at writing code. And in fact, there was kind of this key breakthrough moment over the Christmas holiday of this most recent year, you know, whatever, about six months ago now, where many of the world's best programmers put their hands up and they said the new versions of these things over the Christmas break are better coders than we are.
好的。对，就像他们在某个时刻变得更优秀，比如成为更优秀的棋手一样，突然之间，他们的编码能力也提高了。好，现在它真的来了。所以你可以想象，一个超级程序员，他可以写大量的代码。而且顺便说一句，如果你能够写代码，那就意味着你可以阅读代码，可以发现代码中的漏洞。然后你把这种能力应用到我们称之为计算机安全的问题上。假设你有一个系统，问题是有没有办法攻破它。基本上，黑客的方式就是理解计算机系统的工作原理，理解代码的工作方式，然后找到代码中的缺陷。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Right. And so it's a little bit like the moment when they became better, you know, became better chess players or whatever. You know, it's like, all of a sudden it's like, it's like, it's better at coding. Okay. It's here. It's here. Okay. So then you take, you take a superhuman coder, right? That's able to write, write lots of code. It's able, and then by the way, if you can write code, it means you can look at code. It means you can find bugs in code. And then you apply it to this problem of, you know, we call it computer security. So like, you've got a system. Is there a way to break into it? The hackers, basically, the way that hacking basically works is you understand how a computer system works. You understand how the code works. And then you find flaws in the code.
这东西在找代码缺陷方面非常非常擅长，这在你用它编写代码时非常有用。如果你想用它来进行黑客攻击，它也非常有用。不过，我想仔细讲一下，这些东西是非常出色的黑客。它们并不是在创造新的漏洞或者新问题，而是非常善于透视现实并找出其中的问题。这些东西真正擅长的是利用问题、发现问题。它们很擅长观察一个系统，理解系统中的不足之处，并找出漏洞。由于这些能力，它们成为非常厉害的黑客。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And this thing is very, very good at finding flaws in code, which is very useful when you're using it to write code. It is also very useful if you want to use it to hack something. And so, and I want to go through that though, is like, these things are very good hackers. They're not, they're not really creating new exploits. They're not like creating new problems as much as they're really good at x-raying reality as it exists and finding the issues, right? And so, what these things are really good at is they're really good at exploiting issues, finding issues. They're really good at looking at a system, understanding what's wrong with it, finding the vulnerability. Because of that, they become very good hackers.
但是，还有一件非常复杂而重要的事情，因为他们在这些方面非常擅长，所以他们也是很好的防御者。正是因为同样的特质让他们在所谓的“进攻性”操作，即有时被称为“进攻性网络行动”或“黑帽黑客”中表现出色。因此，他们不仅在这些进攻性行动中表现出色，也能很好地帮助你防御这些攻击。就像一个好的律师会告诉你对方律师会怎么做一样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But then there's one more thing that's really complicated and important, which is because of that, they're also very good defenders, right? And so, it's the same attribute that makes it very good at what we call offensive, because sometimes called, you know, the formal term, offensive cyber operations, you know, kind of black hat hacking, you call it. Because they're good at that, they're also really good at helping you defend against that. And so, right? Like a good lawyer will tell you what the other lawyer is going to do. Exactly.
然后，这其中的关键在于网络防御的方式：进行所谓的渗透测试，也就是自己尝试去入侵自己的系统。这些被称为“白帽黑客”，意味着你雇佣优秀的黑客来试图破解，就像雇人去试图闯入银行，却是为你服务，以找出银行安全漏洞。所以，擅长黑帽黑客技术的人，同样可以在白帽领域表现出色。出色的进攻能力也能造就出色的防御能力，这些都是真实且同时存在的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then the twist on it is the way that you do cyber defense is you do what's called penetration testing, which is you try to hack yourself. And these are called white hat hackers in the old world, which is, right, you hire good hackers, and then they try to break, it's like hiring somebody to try to break into a bank, but they're working for you to find out where the flaws are in the bank. And so, the same thing is good at black hat hacking, it also makes it good at white hat hacking, it makes it good offense, it makes it good at defense, it's all true all at the same time.
此外，关键在于它无法区分你是在请求进行白帽黑客还是黑帽黑客，因为在它看来，这就是相同的操作。对人工智能来说，这是一样的。所以，这是一种潜在的能力被解锁，它是在利用这些系统中存在了30年的漏洞。顺便提一下，人类黑客一直在入侵这些系统。同时，使用这些人工智能来防御将会阻止许多本可能发生的黑客攻击。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And furthermore, the twist is it can't necessarily tell the difference between when you're asking it to do white hat hacking versus when you're asking to do black hat hacking, because it looks like it's the exact same exercise. Like, to the AI, it's the same thing. And so, it's this thing where it's like, it's a latent thing that's being unlocked, it's exploiting bugs, by the way, that have been in these systems for 30 years. By the way, human hackers break into these systems all the time, by the way, using these AIs for defense is going to prevent a lot of hacks that would have otherwise happened.
这其中确实存在一个不断升级的过程，就像猫捉老鼠一样，你可以把它看作是一个升级的阶梯。而正是这种情况，在最近两周引发了政府的真实反应，因为对此的担忧。就像《猫和老鼠》一样。你刚才说的话让我感到不寒而栗，我几乎不敢说出来，因为这实在是太可怕了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But there is an escalation, you know, there's a cat and mouse or, you know, an escalatory ladder, you know, kind of aspect of this. And that, you know, to your point, like, that is the thing that has triggered, you know, most recently, as by the way, that's triggered like a real government response in the last two weeks, you know, because of concerns around that. Yeah, it's like itchy and scratchy, in a way. What you just said has put a chill up my spine, because I'm almost scared to verbalize it, because it's so scary.
你知道《捉鬼敢死队》里市长觉得这些都是胡扯，他打开引擎把所有的鬼都放出来了。我担心的是，基于你刚刚说的内容，如果美国政府因这些事情而过于紧张，试图限制我们的人工智能，而中国没有这些限制，并且从大方向来看，也把我们视为对手——这就像上世纪60年代末，有些人因为害怕核战争，主张西方单方面裁军一样。那么，你觉得赫鲁晓夫、勃列日涅夫这些人会怎么看待这种做法呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know how in Ghostbusters, the mayor is like, this is nonsense, like, open up that engine, he lets all the ghosts out. My big concern after what you just said is, if the American government gets too spooked by all these stories, and tries to restrain our AI, but China, which does not have these restraints, and which views us, generously speaking, as adversarial, so we're engaging, it's like the people in the late 60s, who were so scared of nuclear war, that they advocated for a unilateral disarmament of the West, and it's like, how do you think this is going to play for Khrushchev and Brezhnev and all them?
如果我们给自己戴上手铐，而中国人在这方面基本上被提供了机枪，那么我们国家的任何电脑都无法免受他们的触及，包括政府中的最高机密，这对美国来说将是彻底的灾难，不是吗？没错，所以我们需要采取措施。我们需要做的是利用这些工具来保护我们所有的系统。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If we are putting handcuffs on ourselves, and the Chinese are basically given machine guns in this space, no computer in our country is going to be safe from their reach, and that includes the highest levels of secrecy, you know, in the government, this would be a complete disaster for America, no? Yeah, that's right, and this is what we need to do. So what we need to do is we need to use these tools to secure all of our systems.
是的，没错。这里所说的“我们”指的是美国政府需要这样做，银行需要这样做，再强调一点，科技公司也需要这样做。同时，普通消费者、个人也应该做好准备应对这种情况。而且，所有可用的工具，比如你现在面前的电脑，都需要利用人工智能来确保其安全，以防止他人入侵。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, that's right. Right, and the we here is the United States government needs to do that with its own systems, the banks need to do that, by the way, the tech companies need to do that. By the way, you know, this needs to be, you know, individual consumers, individual people should be expecting to deal with this, but all of the tools that you have, you know, the computer sitting in front of you right now, like, AI needs to be used to make sure that that's secure so that people can't break into it.
就像这样，从最重要的军事政府系统一直到你桌面上的计算机，先进的人工智能应该被用来保护这些系统。但是，问题在于，这些可以用来保护系统的人工智能也可以用来攻破系统。因此，谁能获得这种既能保护又能攻破系统的技术，成了当下政府关注的热点问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like, so every system from the most important military government system all the way down to the computer on your desk, like, AI should be, these advanced AI should be used to secure these systems. The tension, again, the tension is the AI that can be used to secure the systems can also be used to crack the systems. And so who gets access to the thing that can both secure and crack is, like, the hot government topic of the moment.
这就是过去两周所有头条新闻中的内容。但这也让我想到，如果我的人工智能像家里的德国牧羊犬，那会是什么样子。没错，即使我不在家，它也在看护，并且会吠叫。而且，如果它被以某种方式编程，当马克来到我家时，它会舔你的手。但是如果来了一个有攻击性的陌生人，它就会知道如何区分。我觉得这应该是相当简单的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And that's what's in all, specifically, that's what's in all the headlines in the last two weeks. But it also makes me think of now, like, my AI would be like a German shepherd in my house. That's right. Even when I'm not here, it's watching and it barks. And also when it knows how to attack, I'm sure if it's programmed a certain way, if Mark comes over my house, it'll, you know, lick your hand. But if it's someone who's an aggressor, it'll know how to distinguish. And that'd be pretty easy, I think.
显然，有人会非常支持德国牧羊犬（这类保护措施），但随之而来的是激化矛盾。重点在于，如果你把狗弄走，却将家门大开，那你觉得会有什么后果？ 我对人工智能还有另一个大担忧。技术领域一直以来都有这样的担忧：哦，如果电话接线员失业了，她们会流落街头。哦，那谁来采摘棉花呢？ 每当有新发明时，人们总是忧心忡忡，担心这是社会的末日，但这从未发生过。不过，我们是否现在已经到了这样一个阶段：普通人就像马匹一样，意味着成为了过时的技术模式？我特别在想那种五十岁左右，没有高中学历的女性。她周末做网约车司机，以赚取些额外收入。你不可能让她去矿井工作。如果车子可以自己驾驶，如果算法比她更有个性、更讨人喜欢，那她能够做什么呢？她是否已经变得过时了呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Obviously, there's going to be the camp to German shepherds, and it's going to be escalation. But the point is, if you just get rid of the dog and you leave your door wide open, how do you think it's going to end for you? Here's my other big concern with AI. So this has always been a concern about technology. Oh, if the phone operators are out of work, they're going to be homeless. Oh, you know, who's going to pick the cotton? All this. Whenever any invention occurs, people are hand-wringing that it's going to be the end of society. That's never happened. But, but, are we at a point now where the average human is like a horse, meaning an outdated mode of technology? I'm thinking specifically of that, like, 50-year-old woman with no high school diploma. She does ride-sharing weekends to make some extra money. You're not going to put her in the mines. If the car is driving itself, if the algorithm is more personable than her and, you know, more likable than her, what role would you have for her? Is it the case now that she's become outdated? Right.
好的。所以，如你所知，这是一个老生常谈的话题。顺便提一下，托马斯·索维尔对此也有过详细的论述。从工业革命一开始，这一直是一个令人关注的问题。而且，实际上，马匹在其中也扮演了角色。在最初，人类基本上99.99%的人口都在务农，特别是靠手工耕作。然后，人们开始不再务农，而是用马和犁来代替人力，接着又将犁和马机械化，突然间就有了工业化农业。在过去的200年里，人类从99%务农变成了只有3%的人口从事农业，也就是说，大约97%的人口不得不去寻找别的事情做。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. So, as you know, like, this is an old, this is an old argument. By the way, Thomas Sowell also wrote about this, has written about this at length. And so this has been a concern literally from the very beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Right. And actually, literally, horses was like part of how this whole thing started, which was like in the beginning, like in the beginning, humanity, basically 99.99% of people were farming and specifically were farming by hand. Yeah. Right. And then it's like, okay, if people aren't farming and you start replacing people actually with horses and with plows, and then you mechanize the plows and you mechanize the horses and you all of a sudden have like industrial agriculture, you know, and literally what happened over the course of 200 years was 99% of humanity went from farming to something like 3% of humanity went to farming, right? Like 97% or something, you know, had to figure out something else to do.
然后，你知道，事情是这样的：食品生产能力激增，对吧？是的。食物从以前超级昂贵而且质量不太好，变成了既便宜又丰富。而且，你知道，过去最大的公共健康问题是饥饿，而现在变成了肥胖。即便如此，农业从业人数却大幅减少。所以，是的，这就是这个故事的原始版本。这样的情节已经重复了无数次，比如在铁路、汽车上发生过类似的事情，顺便说一句，计算机的发展也是如此。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then, by the way, what happened was food production went through the roof, right? Right. And food went from like super expensive and, by the way, not very good to, you know, to just like, you know, cheap and in abundance. And by the way, you know, the great, the great, you know, public health problem, you know, used to be starvation and now it's obesity, right? Even as you, as you crash the number of people actually working in agriculture. So, so yeah, that, that's the original version of this story. That story has repeated itself a thousand times it repeated itself with, you know, everything, you know, railroads, it repeated itself with cars, it repeated itself, by the way, with computers.
20世纪60年代曾经出现过一场自动化恐慌。当时的杂志和报纸都对这个问题非常关注。人们认为“电脑大脑”将取代一切。这种观点下，我们其实需要认识到一个概念上的差距：一方面是我们已经知道的那些有可能被机器替代的工作。虽然确实有这样的情况发生，但另一方面，还有创造的方面。也就是说，在所有新创造的财富、新的钱、人们可以花费的财富，以及新的兴趣、需求、渴望和追求的推动下，一些旧时的想象无法企及的东西正在被创造出来。200年前乃至50年前的人，很难想象我们今天所拥有的这些变化和发展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
There was a whole automation panic in the 1960s. The magazines and the news, you know, newspapers were obsessed with the time. You know, the computer brain was going to replace everything. You know, it's this thing. And it's this thing where you have to basically kind of say there's this basically gap between, conceptual gap between there's the jobs that we know about that are, you know, quote unquote, at risk of being replaced. And of course there is some of that. And then there's this, and then there's the creation side, which was like, okay, with all of the new wealth that's being created and all the new money that people have to spend and all the new interests and, you know, needs and desires and aspirations that people have that they couldn't even imagined, you know, their, their ancestors 200 years ago, couldn't have been imagined. You know, 50 years ago, exactly.
有一件事可以让这个话题更有趣，现在可以用人工智能做到，就是美国有一个政府部门，叫做劳工统计局。他们记录了美国所有的工作类别。你可以上他们的网站查看所有的工作类别。这是一件非常能开阔思维的事情，因为今天我们雇用人们从事的工作，都是我们的祖先无法想象的。米尔顿·弗里德曼曾有一个思想实验，他说，人类的欲望和需求是无限的。你永远无法预测它们，因为人类在他们的欲望和需求上是无止境的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so one of the things that people can do on this to make it interesting, you're going to have, you know, you can do this with an AI now, but you know, there's a US government department called the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and they actually track all the job categories in the US. And you can go on their website and you can pull up all the job categories. And it's a really mind expanding thing to do because we, we just, we employ people to do things today that our ancestors could have never even conceivably imagined. I mean, you know, I mean, the, Milton Friedman, Milton Friedman had a thought experiment on this once when he said, look, it's like, he said, human wants and needs are infinite. You can never predict what they're going to be because human, humans are like relentlessly aspirational in the things that they want and need.
顺便说一下，起初只是想要的东西，很快就会变成需要的东西。当然。他说，你不知道这些东西会是什么。你需要让自由市场运行，这样人们才能找到自己的路，发现他们真正想要的东西，而其他人则可以找到满足这些需求的方法。他说，你需要对各种结果保持开放的态度。他举例说，比如治疗师这个职业，你付钱给别人听你说话，对你的祖先来说可能会觉得完全不可思议。然而，如今这却成了只有富人才能享受的服务。而在某个未来世界，也许地球上一半的人都在当治疗师，服务于另外一半人。也许这就是一种可能的工作。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And by the way, the things that are started as wants become needs, you know, very, very quickly. Of course. He said, you don't know what they're going to be. You need to let, let the free market basically operate so people can basically find their own way and discover what they want. And other people can figure out how to satisfy that. And he said, look, you just need to be very open to all kinds of outcomes here. He said, for example, the idea of the job of a therapist, right? Like you pay somebody to listen to you, right? Would have struck your ancestors as completely insane. You know, and then today it's something that like only wealthy people have access to. And, you know, he's like, look, like in some future reality, maybe half the planet, you know, consists of being therapists for the other half. Like maybe that's the job, right?
他并没有作出具体的预测，只是说，现在有一个机会，可以创造各种新的职业和工作，以应对不断产生的细微差别和需求。我觉得我们现在对这种情况的看法特别狭隘，因为我们这一生都生活在一个经济增长缓慢的环境中。从上世纪70年代开始，西方经济增长的历史发生了很大变化。以前，经济增长速度更快，技术进步可以更迅速地转化为经济增长，经济的增速历史上曾是我们这一生中所见的三倍。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And he wasn't making a specific prediction, but he's just saying like, look, there's an aperture here for the creation of all kinds of new, you know, professions and occupations in response to this creation of nuance and needs. I also think we have a particularly blinkered view of this right now because we've been living in a slow growth environment economically for our whole lives. So one of the things that really happened, you know, basically since the 1970s is if you look at the history of economic growth in the West, economic growth used to be much more rapid. Technological advances translated into the economy much, much more rapidly and the economy grew much faster, like as much as three times faster historically than it's been growing for our entire lives.
因此，我们一直生活在一种零和博弈的、缓慢增长的环境中，这种环境越来越受到监管和官僚主义的影响，创造力越来越少，难以转化为经济变化和经济增长。虽然我们认为身处一个快速技术变革的时代，但从经济上看，我们经历的却是非常缓慢的变化。结果是，我们的政治和心理很多都感觉像是零和游戏。如果一件事情消失了，就意味着被别人夺走了。这也是为什么两边的政治民粹主义会崛起，因为存在这样一种零和博弈的恐惧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so we've been living in a sort of a zero sum, a slow growth, zero sum, basically increasingly is, you know, like regulated, bureaucratized environment with like less and less creativity that's translated into economic change, economic growth. Like we think we've been living through an area of rapid technological change. Economically, we've been living through a period of very slow change. As a consequence, so much of our politics and so much of our psychology feels zero sum, right? Where if one thing, if one thing goes away, somebody else has taken it, right? And, you know, and this is, by the way, this is like why you get like political populism on both sides of the aisle is this kind of, this kind of zero sum fear.
人工智能是数十年来首个有潜力显著提高经济学家所说的生产率增长率的技术，基本上就是增强公司和经济更快增长的能力。如果这个潜力得以实现，经济增长就会加速，对吧？那时经济就会开始迅速发展。想象一下，经济增长速度是以往的两倍、三倍、四倍甚至五倍。结果就是，人们的钱包里会有更多可以自由支配的钱，比如有人可能会第一次有能力收藏艺术品，或者尝试一些新鲜事物，比如说，拥有一辆自动驾驶汽车等等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
AI is the first technology in decades that it has the potential to dramatically increase what economists call the rate of productivity growth, which is basically the ability for the company, the economy to grow much faster. If that works and happens, then economic growth accelerates, right? Then the economy starts. So you just want to imagine like the economy growing two or three or four or five times faster than it has historically. And then as a consequence of that, all of this new discretionary spending money, you know, that comes out of people's wallets where they get to say, wow, I can collect art for the first time in my life. And I really want to try this new, you know, whatever. I, you know, would love to have a self-driving car and, you know, dot, dot, dot, dot, dot.
人们发现了他们想要的各种东西，并且这些东西是他们可以支付得起的。然后，突然之间，由于所有满足这些需求的人，就出现了一个巨大的就业创造引擎。就像我说的，我认为这其中有一个积极的故事。但这不仅需要我们保持乐观，还需要我们对创造性的需求和想法保持开放态度，尤其是在那些为了满足这些需求而建立起来的行业。我的意思是，我不认为这完全由人工智能推动。人们常常认为人工智能在这个过程中是一个负面因素，而且在某种程度上确实会这样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And people discover all these things that they want, that they can pay for. And then all of a sudden you have this massive engine of job creation right behind that from all the people who are fulfilling all those needs. Like I, you know, I think there's a positive story. It does require you to have, not even just optimism, it requires you to have an openness to creativity of the wants and needs that we don't yet understand in the industries that get built to fulfill those. But what I'm saying is I don't see how that is, that AI, so this is the thing. So people look at AI as the negative driver on this and there will be some of that.
我的意思是，有一些工作将不再需要，因为人工智能已经在做这些工作。但人工智能也赋予每个人强大的能力，让他们能够做自己想做的事情。而且，你可以说，这就是当人们在讨论人工智能时常出现的巨大分歧之一，他们基本上充满了恐惧和焦虑。今天，已有超过十亿人在使用人工智能。例如，超过十亿人使用ChatGPT，他们使用ChatGPT的内容都是与自己生活息息相关的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mean, there is some of that where there will be certain jobs that are no longer required because the AI is doing it. But AI is also superpowers to every individual person to be able to do whatever they want. Right. And by the way, maybe that you can say this, this is like the massive split in the sort of the discourse of when people talk about AI and the abstract, they have all these like basically fears and anxieties. Over a billion people are using AI already today. Like more than a billion people use ChatGPT. And the things that using ChatGPT for are the things that matter in their individual lives.
他们非常喜欢它。这很棒。现在有大量的人正在使用它来提高工作效率。人们利用它学习新技能，做得更好，让老板更满意，从而更快地获得晋升。他们用它来创业，提供新服务。就是说，如果你今天想开一家小公司，或者成为作家，或者从事任何你想做的事情，人工智能就像是你能拥有的最好的老师、教练、导师。它会指导你完成所有事情，教你如何做市场营销，如何进行销售。普通人获得了一种前所未有的能力，可以在生活和工作中达到前所未有的生产力水平，这真是令人惊叹。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And they love it. And it's great. And everybody's, it's like huge numbers of people are using this to be better at work today. They're using it to be better at work. They're using it to learn new skills. They're using it to do a better job, to make their boss happier, to be able to get promoted faster. They're using it to start new companies, offer new services. I mean, if you want to start a small business today, or by the way, you become a writer or like anything that you want to do, like the AI is like the best possible teacher, coach, mentor that you've ever had. It will like walk you through everything. It'll teach you how to do marketing. It'll teach you how to do sales. It'll like, like, it's just like the level of capability that is being unlocked for ordinary people to have a, like a level of productivity in their life and in their work that they've never had access to before is amazing.
然后，突然之间，你就会遇到这样一个人，她原本是个Uber司机。然后忽然之间，情况变成了这样：哦，哇，好吧。我不知道，突然之间有很多新游客来到我的小镇。而且我不再只是载他们四处逛，而是可以带他们参观。这些游客想去什么样的旅游路线呢？哦，好吧，AI会帮我设计路线。哦，那我该如何成立一个导游公司呢？哦，这里有详细步骤来告诉你怎么注册。哦，你知道怎么为导游公司记账吗？这里有做账的方法。然后很快，她就从事了完全不同的业务，Waymo无人车把游客送到她的面前，他们很高兴能有一个导游带他们参观。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so then all of a sudden, yeah, you get, you get that, that person who was an Uber driver. And now all of a sudden it turns out, it's just like, oh, wow. Okay. I don't know. All of a sudden there's like all these new tourists coming to my town. And instead of driving them around, I can give them tours. Okay. What would be the tour that they would like to go on? Oh, well, the AI will help me like design the tour. Oh, well, how do I start like a tour guide company? Oh, well, here's how to do it. Here's how you register it. Oh, you know, how do I keep the books for a tour guide company? Here's how to do it. And the next thing you know, she's on the other side of that and she's in a completely different business and people are, you know, the Waymo car is delivering the tour participants to her, delighted to see her because they want a person to take them on the tour.
这就是创造性的那一面。但从历史上看，创造新点子、新需求和新欲望，以及满足这些欲望和需求的新商业和职业的发展一直远远领先于替代现象。经过300年的机械化和计算机发展，如今世界上的工作岗位比以往任何时候都多，收入水平也更高。我认为这正是我们即将看到的情况。我理解大家的担忧，但我认为这是对想象力的一种根本性缺乏。我相信人类的精神能够很好地适应这种变化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that's the creative side of it. But historically, the creative sort of generation of new ideas, generation of new wants and needs and the new businesses and professions that fulfill those wants and needs has raced way ahead, right? Of the replacement phenomenon. You know, after 300 years of mechanization and computers, there are more jobs in the world today and at higher incomes than ever before in human history. I think that's exactly what's going to happen here. And I think basically people who, I understand the concern, but I think it's just, I think it's fundamentally a failure of imagination. And I think that the human spirit is going to process this just fine.
我认为我们之间的分歧，或者说也许是我没有正确理解的地方在于，我认为有一大部分人群，大约三分之一，可能甚至更多，据我保守估计，是没有自我引导能力的，对吧？比如说，一个女性导游，这种情况比较简单，因为她知道自己该做什么，比如学习这些技能，可能只要一天时间，进行阅读并且有良好的人际沟通能力，他们能够胜任这份工作，这种人相对容易。但是，我认为有很多人实际上只想要安全感，就像有人说的，“普通人不想要自由，他们只想要安全感。” 有些人天生就是想被别人告诉该做什么。在某种程度上，我看不出这些人在公司或其他地方能带来什么价值。那该如何对待这些人呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think that where you and I disagree, or maybe I'm not understanding correctly, is I think a huge segment of the population, let's say a third, I'm being conservative in my opinion, are not capable of self-direction, right? So like if someone is, that woman who's the tour guide, that's an easy one because that's someone who's like, okay, what should I be doing? Okay, I'll learn these skills. It'll take me a day. I'll, you know, do my reading and I'm personable and they're going to clean up. That's an easy one. But I think there's plenty of people who are basically just want to, making it said the average man does not want to be free. He merely wants to be safe. There are people who just are wired that they want to be told what to do. And at a certain point, I don't see what value they're adding to any company or anyone else. And what do you do with those people?
把他们放到福利系统中。我是说，这涉及到社会政策和政治理论的问题，可能我不太想在网络视频上深入探讨这个话题。但我想说的是，你可以和人工智能讨论这个问题，比如你可以告诉它你现在迷茫，不知道该怎么办。比如说，你一辈子都在做某件事，现在却担心你的工作会被替代。那么，你该做些什么呢？人工智能可以给你一些职业建议，但我认为人们不应该盲目地听从它的建议，照做不误。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Just put them in welfare. Well, I mean, this gets an area of social policy and, you know, political theory that maybe I may stay away from. At least live on video on the internet. Okay, sure. But I guess I would say this, like, one of the things you can talk to AI about is this problem. Like, one of the things you can do is you can say, wow, like, I don't know what I'm going to do. Like, here's what I've done for my entire life. And wow, I don't know. It seems like my job's going to get like replaced. It's like, okay, what should I do? The thing will give you career advice. Right. Like, it will tell you, like, if you want it to, it will tell you what to do. Right. And I don't think people should just like ask it what to do and just do what it says.
你可以说，好吧，和我一起头脑风暴。我用它来进行头脑风暴。虽然这只是一个可以用来头脑风暴的领域，但你可以说，好吧，看，这就是发生的情况。嗯，它可能会问你，你住在哪里？发生了什么？这里有不同的领域，趋势是什么？有哪些新出现的事物？我不知道，但每次我路过本地健身房时，我都会看到有六种新的锻炼课程，是我从未想过的。我能成为一个私人教练吗？这是什么？热门的新趋势是什么？我怎样才能获得那个的认证？接着你就真的开始做这件事情了。这个工具会很乐意地指导你，我认为其中一个了不起的地方在于，这一点真的被低估了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But you can say, okay, brainstorm with me. I use it for brainstorming. Although this is an area you can use for brainstorming and say, all right, look, like, here's what's happening. Okay. Well, it's going to say, well, you know, where do you live? What's going on? Here are the different areas. What are the trends? What are the new things that are happening? You know, I don't know, I, you know, I, you know, every time I go by my local gym, I see there's like six new kinds of exercise classes I never thought of. Could I become a, you know, could I become a personal trainer? You know, okay, what's that? What's the hot new trend? How do I get, you know, certified in that? And then the next thing you know, you're doing that. And, and, and, and the thing will just like happily coach, it'll, it'll, it'll, so one of the, one of the amazing things about this, I think this is really underrated.
这些东西，也就是人工智能模型，就像你人生中遇到过的最好的医生一样。做医生是件很了不起的事。无论你遇到什么医疗情况，它都会像握住你的手一样提供帮助，展现出一种超越普通人和大多数人类医生的关怀。因为不光是大多数医生不会自然地做到这一点，而且没有人类医生有时间以人们真正需要的方式去做它。人工智能也是你遇到过的最好的律师，是你遇到过的最好的教练，是你遇到过的最好的代笔，是你遇到过的最好的编辑，也是你遇到过的最好的顾问。所以，如果你给它这个机会，它不仅能回答问题，其实你不用回答，它也会帮你回答。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
These things, the AI models, it's like the best doctor you've ever had in your entire life. Like, it's amazing being a doctor. Like it will hold your hand through any medical situation you're in with a degree of like caring that people are not like beyond what a human doctor, not only what most human doctors will just do naturally, but no human doctor has time to do it in the way people really need. It's also the best lawyer you've ever had, right? It's also the best like coach you've ever had. It's also the best ghostwriter you've ever had. It's the best editor you've ever had. And it's the best advisor you've ever had, right? And so if you, if you give it that opportunity, and again, you don't have to answer, you can actually answer the questions, it will answer the questions.
好的。我该怎么做呢？我该如何看待我职业的发展呢？我该如何看待经济的变化呢？这些问题它都会乐意和你一起探讨。而且，这是一种以前从未有人能够与人这样交谈的方式。你知道吗，因为我有个好朋友，他在加密货币上赚了很多钱，但一直呆在家里不用工作，这让他快要疯了。所以他说，我需要找份工作，不是为了赚钱，而是为了有事可做。我跟他说，可以考虑制作男士香薰蜡烛。你可以深入研究香味的搭配等等，这会让你脑子忙起来。即使只赚到50美元，也无所谓。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. What should I do? How should I think about the evolution of my career? How should I think about the change in the economy? It will happily do that with you. And in a way that people literally have never been able to have that conversation with people before. You know, you really kind of solve that question in my mind because I have a good friend and he's made a lot of money in crypto, but he's been sitting at home not having to work and it's been driving him crazy. So he's like, I need to have a job. I don't need to make money. I just need, I'm like, make candles for guys, scented candles for men. Like that's a, like it's, you can go down that rabbit hole, work at the sense, blah, blah, blah. It'll occupy your brain. You'll create a product, even if you make $50, who cares?
我意识到，如果你向人工智能提出问题，它就像一个维恩图，会找出市场上的空缺，比如没有人为14岁的移民制作袜子。它能够识别市场的这些空白，并引导你进行探索。这对那些基本上没有任何资源或能力的人除外，但这又是另一个话题。然而，那位女士的问题基本解决了，因为她可以思考自己能带来什么价值，可以生产什么，比如制作饼干。总有很多事情是人们希望注入个人元素的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And what I'm realizing is if you ask AI, it will have that Venn diagram of no one has made socks for 14 year old immigrants or, you know, it'll see those where there's holes in the market and then it could walk you through it. So it really does, except for the people who completely bring nothing to the table, which that's fine. That's a whole separate conversation. But that, that woman with the, with the, you just really solved my question because she can be like, okay, what value can I bring? What could I produce? Make cookies. Who can, there's so many things that, that people always want that personal touch.
市场会变得越来越小众，人工智能能够精准地找到那些未被关注的小群体，比如那些喜欢咸水鱼缸又热衷重金属音乐的人们。那就不妨开一个关于重金属咸水鱼缸的网站，这就是你要的答案。天哪，你真的给我解决了问题。我真的很想要一个重金属风格的鱼缸，里面的鱼就像愤怒的小家伙一样，为什么不呢？绝对可以。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And also there's so many little, the markets will get more and more niche and AI will be perfectly able to find, no one is talking to people who like saltwater aquariums, but also like heavy metal music. So start a heavy metal saltwater aquarium website. That, that, there you go. Holy crap. You just answered my question. I would love a heavy metal aquarium. It's like angry little fish. Like, yeah. Like why not? A hundred percent.
好的，当然了。不过，我们可以换个角度来思考这个问题。我认为，这种看法是对的。很多人觉得，如果机器做某件事，这是在去人性化。我不知道你怎么看，但我觉得办公室工作就非常去人性化。比如每天在隔间里坐8小时，不断重复相同的事情。而工厂的工作也一样去人性化。顺便说一下，我是在农业地区长大的，也曾在农场工作过。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, no, totally. Well, here's, here's maybe another way to think about it. Oh, I think that's right. Here's another way to think about it, which is, you know, people think about this as like, well, if the machine does something, it's dehumanizing. I don't know about you, but like office jobs are dehumanizing. Like, oh yeah. Like sitting in a cubicle for eight hours a day, like working on the same thing over and over again. And then by the way, factory jobs are dehumanizing. And by the way, like I worked, you know, I grew up in agriculture, agriculture country. I worked on farms.
你知道，务农并不浪漫。有时候，城里人会谈论他们对精品农业的浪漫憧憬，就是那种去乡村创业的感觉。但问题是，你觉得每天早上六点起床，半夜才睡，一周七天都在辛苦工作一辈子，这种生活如何？确实很困难。可以说，你是在时刻与混乱作斗争。因此，我觉得我们就像是有一种集体创伤后应激障碍。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like, you know, farming is not romantic. I'd be, you know, people sometimes, you know, city, city people sometimes talk about their romance of going off and doing like whatever boutique, you know, farming. And it's like, you know, how do you, how do you feel like getting up at six in the morning, going to bed at midnight, working like seven days a week for the rest of your life? It's difficult. Yeah. Like it's like, yeah, exactly. Like you're in, you're fighting back like chaos, you know, the, the, the entire time. And so like, I, I think just so much of like what, it's almost like we have collective PTSD.
我们每个人都过着这样的生活，如果我们看看300年前我们的祖先所过的日子，我们会觉得那是一种让人难以忍受的单调、贫穷和有限选择的生活，可能会让我们崩溃。300年后，甚至30年后的后代们回顾我们的生活时，也许会惊讶地说：“我真不敢相信他们居然那样生活，我真不敢相信他们把时间浪费在那些事情上。”这真是人类潜力和创造力的巨大浪费。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like we all have the, we've all had to live these lives with a, with a level of like, if we look at our ancestors and the lives they lived 300 years ago, we just are like, that was a level of drudgery and poverty and limited options that would drive us crazy and make us want to kill ourselves. Our ancestors 30 years, I mean, 300 years from now, even 30 years from now are going to look back at us being like, I cannot believe they did that. I cannot believe they spent time doing those things. Like that was such a waste of human potential. That was such a waste of human creativity.
然后，还有一点需要补充的是，我认为这关乎一个问题：这样的技术让我们变得更不人性，还是更人性化？我想，通过我们一直使用的例子，你开始能理解为什么这会让人更有人性。如果生活中的物质需求更容易得到满足，那么人们就可以花更多的时间真正地去体验作为人的生活，他们可以花更多的时间和金钱在那些真正属于人类体验的事情上。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then maybe one more, one more thing to kind of add on that is I think that this goes to the thing of like, does technology like this make us less human or more human? And I, and I think like the examples we've been using, I think you start to see why, why this can result in people being more human, which is if, if the physical need, if the physical needs a day that their life are more easily satisfied, then people can spend more time actually being human. And then they can spend more time actually and money spending time on things that actually are human experiences.
顺便说一句，另一个令人难以置信的情况正在发生。这一定会发生。等等，我得打断一下，只是为了验证你的观点。因为早些时候，我读了很多，比如19世纪90年代到20世纪10年代的早期社会主义者，那时的人们每天要工作16个小时。对，没错。而且，即便后来每天工作时间减少到10小时，这仍然很多，人们还是抱怨说现在看太多电视，因为他们有太多空闲时间。没错，没错。对，对。许多因为稀缺导致的问题变成了由于富足带来的问题，而富足的问题仍然是问题，但要好得多，比如肥胖总比饥饿好。而且顺便说一下，肥胖的问题以后也会找到解决办法。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
By the way, another just incredible version of this is already playing out. It's going to. Wait, I got to interrupt you just to validate your point of view, because back in the day, you know, when I'm reading a lot, like the early socialists, 1890s, 1910s, people working 16 hours a day. Right, that's right. And, and like, even just down to 10, which is still a lot, they can't much people, then you're complaining people watching too much TV because they have too much spare time. That's right. That's right. Right, right. All the diseases of scarcity become diseases of abundance and, you know, diseases of abundance are still diseases, but they're better, they're better. Like obesity, obesity is better than starvation. And then by the way, you know, then you, then you figure out how to solve obesity, obesity later on.
是的，我的意思是，我给你一个小例子，这种情况发生在音乐领域。以前，所有的音乐都是现场演奏的。也就是说，你只有在偶然走进教堂或类似的地方时，才能听到音乐，可能那也是你一生中唯一一次听到音乐。确实有些人可能在他们的一生中只听过一次音乐。然后，乐谱出现了。当乐谱刚出现的时候，引起了一场巨大的道德恐慌，因为人们担心它会导致所有的钢琴演奏者失业，他们对此感到非常不满。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. I mean, look, I'll just give you a micro, one example of this was happening in music. Right. And so, you know, record, once upon a time, all music was in person. Like the only time you'd ever hear music was like, if you happen to stumble into a church or something and hear it for the first time. And by the way, maybe the only time in your life, you know, there were people who maybe heard music once, you know, in their entire life. Right. And so, and then, and then, and then by the way, but by the way, then sheet music appeared. Actually, there was a whole moral panic about sheet music. When it first appeared because it was going to put all the, all the pianists out of business and they all got extremely upset.
然后，这就导致了录制音乐的发展，随后又出现了数字音乐和流媒体音乐。现在，你要是和任何音乐人谈到，他们会说，靠录制音乐赚钱已经不太现实了。虽然你可以把音乐上传到 Spotify 等平台上进行分发，但常常听到抱怨说得到的回报少得可怜。所以，录制音乐行业已经不像过去那样了。当然，现在蓬勃发展的是现场演出。对，没错，现场音乐正在迅猛增长，现在的新问题就是票价太贵，看演唱会的成本太高。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But then that, you know, led to ultimately recorded music. And then obviously digital music and streaming music. And now, now, if you talk to any musician, it's like, can you make money, you know, with recorded music? It's like, no, you know, not really anymore. You know, you can get your music distributed on Spotify, but you, you know, you hear the endless complaints about, you know, you get back pennies or something. And so the recorded music business is not what it used to be. Of course, what's exploded is live, live performance. Right. Right. And so, and so, so live music is like exploding through the roof and, and now you see, and now the complaint, right, is the tickets are too expensive, you know, to go to, to go to the concerts.
嗯，就是说，好吧。但如果你仔细想一下，就会觉得，为什么我们还在听现场音乐？我们所有的人在家里或耳机上，随时都可以免费享受高保真的所有已创作的音乐。为什么还要去听演唱会呢？答案当然是，因为演唱会是一种人类体验。所以，当我们有多余的钱时，我们当然会想要去体验这种人类互动，去参加演唱会。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, it's like, well, okay. But if you think about it for a second, it's like, why are we still listening to live music? We all have every piece of music ever written available on demand in high fidelity in our homes, in our, in our, on our earphones anytime we want, essentially for free. Why is anybody going to a concert? And of course, the answer is because the concert is a human experience. Right. And so, of course, when we get discretionary money, we want to go have the human experience. We want to go have the concert.
顺便说一下，如果我们要举办一个特别的派对，是用音响放音乐还是请乐手表演呢？我们选择请乐手表演。而且，去音乐会时，你和别人一起去，可以建立一种非常紧密的联系。这种联系是百分之百的。还有另一种思考方式是，每一个需要人与人之间接触的职业都将会变得非常抢手。对，对，我认为这些职业能够让所有从事这些工作的人获得很好的经验，这真是太棒了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
By the way, if we're going to throw a party and we want to be a very special party, do we play music through speakers or do we hire musicians? We hire musicians. And also going to the concert, you go with someone, you create a bond, which is a hundred percent, a hundred percent. And so there's another way to think about it is every profession that involves human to human contact is going to go bananas. Right. Right. And, and, and I, and I think that those jobs, by the way, that's going to be great for all the people getting experience that.
然后我觉得那些工作从根本上来说是更好的工作，就在一个非常核心的层面上。而且它们将要迎来一个繁荣期。这是该节目漫长而复杂的历史中第一次，我真的不是在开玩笑。你完全解答了我对这个话题的所有疑虑，我现在完全明白了。谢谢你，我感到非常兴奋。我相信，对于你来说，这一定更加激动人心，因为你从一开始就参与其中，比我更有远见。我甚至无法想象你会有多兴奋，因为这些都是人们在五年前就曾经预测过的事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then I think those jobs fundamentally are better jobs, like just at a very, at a very, at a very core level. And they are going to go, it's going to be a bonanza. For the first time in this show's long and sordid history, you have completely, I'm not kidding at all. You've completely answered all my concerns about the topic and I'm, I totally get it now. I, thank you. I, I, I feel so excited. I, I'm sure, and since you're much more visionary about this stuff than I am, cause you've been there, you know, from the beginning, if I can't even imagine how exciting must be for you, things that were, people were kind of hypothesizing about even five years ago.
现在你每天都在使用它们。一定让你感到十分兴奋。所以这本书是《科技乐观主义者宣言》。是由Passage Press出版的。马克，非常感谢你抽出时间。我们时间快不够了。你认为这次采访中你最喜欢的部分是什么？那些令人惊讶的深刻问题。别客气。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now you're using them on a day-to-day basis. It just must be, you must be absolutely giddy. So the book is The Techno-Optimist Manifesto. You got it, Passage Press. Mark, thank you so much for taking the time. We're running out of time. What has been your favorite part of this interview? The amazingly, amazingly probing questions. You are welcome.
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▶ 英文原文 ⏱
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▶ 英文原文 ⏱
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