Yahoo Finance Live: Daily Market Coverage - June 18, 2026 9AM-11AM (ET)
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Episode 设置
好的，以下是内容的中文翻译：
**本次雅虎财经晨间简报涵盖了联邦储备委员会的最新动向、市场对美联储主席沃什首次新闻发布会的反应、地缘政治对经济的影响、AI技术对不同行业和就业市场的冲击、以及热门股票和金融顾问的见解。**
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**一、美联储与市场反应**
* **美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的首次新闻发布会：**
* 市场普遍认为沃什的言论偏向鹰派，尽管他并未明确给出前瞻性指引。
* 沃什表示将“改革”美联储，并成立多个工作组来审视和改变现有操作模式，特别是数据收集和沟通方式。
* 他鼓励其他18位投票成员提交经济预测（SEP）和点阵图（Dot Plot），但他本人并未提交，表示不进行前瞻性指引。
* 点阵图显示分歧：9名成员预测今年加息一次，8名预测不变，1名预测降息一次。
* 主持人朱莉·海曼认为，沃什希望市场关注数据本身，而非美联储的反应，甚至认为市场应“与美联储分手”，因为美联储对美国经济的影响力可能不如以往。
* 凯文·芒恩（Kenyon and Walsh 首席投资官）认为，沃什“新官上任三把火”，可能通过工作组改变美联储规则，并质疑美联储多年来增加透明度反而导致更多困惑。
* 伊内斯（Yahoo Finance 的 Ines）认为沃什可能在寻找“实时数据”甚至调整通胀衡量方式（如PCE的修剪版本），这可能对市场有利。她也认为沃什的讲话旨在巩固权力，减少其他联储官员的公开表态。
* 沃什在发布会上表现得“过于玩笑”，但凯文·芒恩认为他的语调“更克制”，专注于改变数据收集方式。
* **市场表现与预期：**
* 美联储会议后，股指期货上涨。
* 周三市场因美联储新闻发布会而下跌，被认为是“规避风险”反应。道琼斯指数在美联储声明发布后大幅下跌。
* 周四市场有所反弹，标准普尔500指数几乎回到前几天的收盘水平。
* 詹妮弗·沙姆伯格（Jennifer Scharmburger）指出，美联储预计通胀要到2028年才能回到2%的目标，这表明通胀压力长期存在。市场对今年9月或10月加息的押注增加。
* 布鲁克·德·帕尔马（Brooke De Palma）表示，债券市场感到“恐慌”，两年期国债收益率出现自去年“解放日”以来最大波动，也是2008年以来美联储会议后最大波动。十年期国债收益率上涨超过7个基点。
* 亚当·特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist, LPL Financial）认为短期内市场受损，但长期看，市场已适应从降息到加息的预期转变。他预计今年夏天市场可能出现“一些动荡”。
* 大多数嘉宾认为，除非伊朗局势恶化导致油价飙升至100美元以上，否则美联储今年不会加息，但加息的可能性已大大增加。
**二、地缘政治与经济影响**
* **美国与伊朗的谅解备忘录（MOU）：**
* 美国与伊朗签署备忘录，市场希望霍尔木兹海峡的石油流动能更顺畅，从而平抑油价。
* 汽油价格已降至每加仑4美元以下。
* 塞玛·沙阿（Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management）指出，能源价格下跌有望在未来几个月降低通胀预期。
* 然而，她也提醒，地缘政治冲突在未来5-10年可能加剧，各国政府将增加能源安全和国防支出，可能导致通胀结构性走高。
**三、AI技术对经济和就业的影响**
* **通胀压力：**
* 蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook, Apple）表示iPhone价格将上涨，反映AI技术推高了内存芯片成本，目前AI是通胀而非通缩力量。
* 除了汽油，服务业（如水电工）等其他领域通胀依然显著。
* 伊内斯提到，AI工具（如Claude）的使用成本也在上升，未来可能导致更高价格。
* 凯文·芒恩补充说，AI基础设施的资本支出虽然创造就业，但尚未转化为生产率提升或利润率改善，因此目前是通胀的。
* 朱莉·海曼指出，AI的通胀效应并未体现在整体工资增长上，目前通胀增长高于工资增长，AI工程师除外。
* **AI与就业：**
* Brian Stass指出，科技公司今年已裁员10万人，高盛预计AI每月导致1.6万个美国工作岗位流失。
* 企业家兼前总统候选人杨安泽（Andrew Yang）表示，AI导致的失业潮“刚刚开始”，未来会更严重。他引用一位CEO的话，表示30%的员工将被裁掉，但收入将翻倍。
* 杨安泽认为，企业的目标是成本效益，而非创造就业。他主张政府应通过全民基本收入（UBI）来管理这种转型，并指出UBI的支持率已从2020年的30%上升到现在的60%。
* 他建议美国工人应努力掌握AI工具。
* 杨安泽支持对AI公司征税，认为就像电力一样，AI也应被征税和监管。他认为不应对人类劳动征税，而应对使用AI的公司征税。
* 谈到亿万富翁财富税，杨安泽认为在州层面征收是错误的，因为资本和富人具有流动性，会选择离开。
* **AI在零售业的应用（AI代理购物）：**
* 美国运通（American Express）的研究显示，78%的消费者认为AI对购物有积极影响，但只有35%的人愿意让AI代理完成购买。存在“信任差距”。
* 美国运通全球商户和网络服务总裁安娜·马尔斯（Ana Mars）表示，弥合这一差距需要时间和积极的用户体验。
* 目前处于“AI影响、人工批准”阶段，消费者已使用AI进行购物研究。
* 旅行被视为AI代理购物的“杀手级应用”，因为它购买过程复杂，价格波动大，AI可以持续监测。
* 商家对AI持开放态度，因为它能帮助解决“废弃购物车”问题，提高交易完成率和授权率。
* 美国运通提供“代理购买保护”以应对可能的“代理错误”。
**四、热门股票与行业动态**
* **科技股：**
* 英特尔（Intel）股价上涨8%，此前前总统特朗普在社交媒体上暗示英特尔将与苹果合作生产芯片。
* 半导体行业整体强劲反弹，包括博通（Broadcom）和英伟达（NVIDIA）。
* 凯文·芒恩提到，英伟达与台积电（Taiwan Semiconductor）合作在美国设厂，创造了就业机会。
* 杨安泽提到SpaceX等IPO正在被散户投资者追捧。
* 亚当·特恩奎斯特认为，MAG-7（科技巨头）并未“死亡”，但可能面临进一步回调，因为科技板块“超买”，且动量指标出现背离。
* Netflix曾考虑收购Roku（拥有1亿家庭用户，提供宝贵的收视数据），以及可能收购Lionsgate（补充内容库）。Netflix之前拒绝收购华纳兄弟探索（WBD）旗下的CNN，只对其电影工作室和HBO感兴趣。
* **其他公司：**
* 埃森哲（Accenture）：今年表现不佳（已下跌50%），营收预测低于预期，新订单下降2%。宣布以42亿美元收购一家网络安全公司。
* 辉瑞（Pfizer）：首席财务官（CFO）将于8月15日离职，前往消费品行业。分析师质疑该公司在等待新减肥药上市之际的前景。分析师目标价仍有上涨空间（29.19美元 vs. 当前25美元）。
* 克罗格（Kroger）：盈利预测不尽如人意，第二季度（Q2）调整后收益和销售额预计与去年持平。公司称消费者承压，通胀成本可能上升。首席执行官（CEO）表示不需做最低价零售商。股价下跌6%。
**五、金融咨询与财富平等**
* 亚历山德拉·胡德（Alexandria Hood, Wealth Cable Advisory）指出，低收入和单收入家庭往往认为自己不需要或负担不起财务顾问，这反映了传统金融行业对这些群体的营销不足。
* 她认为前总统特朗普提出的为婴儿建立账户（初始资金1000美元）是一个投资增长的机会。
* 面对财富不平等和“万亿富翁”的出现，她承认许多客户感到“系统被操纵”，但她也强调，富豪的成功表明可能性，鼓励人们学习并参与其中。
**六、纽约尼克斯队夺冠庆祝**
* 纽约尼克斯队夺冠，这是50多年来的首次。
* 纽约市举行盛大庆祝游行，预计有数万球迷参加，市内交通受影响，有1万名警察维持秩序。
* 此次夺冠对纽约市经济产生巨大影响：主场比赛经济影响达3.82亿美元，总决赛每场可达9000万美元（包括门票、酒吧消费等）。
* 麦迪逊广场花园的股价也因此受益。
* 现在所谓的“纸带游行（ticker tape parade）”实际上使用的是碎纸屑。
**美联储前景预测（Matt Luzzetti, 德意志银行首席美国经济学家）：**
* 美联储利率远高于中性水平，金融条件非常宽松，但目前的政策利率低于其模型建议的水平。
* 尽管没有将加息纳入基线预测，但如果通胀在能源价格下跌后不能持续下降，美联储今年仍可能需要加息。
* 沃什的改革目标明确：精简沟通（声明从340字减至130字，类似格林斯潘时代）、取消点阵图（因市场过度解读）、以及审视资产负债表（沃什认为其推动通胀和不平等，倾向于缩减）。
* 取消点阵图将是积极的沟通改革。
* 美联储不提供前瞻性指引和框架将导致市场空白和波动性增加，可能提高风险资产和债券市场的风险溢价。
* 尽管美联储运作方式改变，但其对经济和市场的重要性仍然至关重要。
本次雅虎财经晨间简报涵盖了联邦储备委员会的最新动向、市场对美联储主席沃什首次讲话的反应、地缘政治对经济的影响、AI技术对不同行业和就业市场的冲击、以及热门股票和金融顾问的见解。
**一、美联储与市场反应**
* **美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）的首次新闻发布会：**
* 市场普遍认为沃什的言论偏向鹰派，尽管他并未明确给出前瞻性指引。
* 沃什表示将“改革”美联储，并成立多个工作组来审视和改变现有操作模式，特别是数据收集和沟通方式。
* 他鼓励其他18位投票成员提交经济预测（SEP）和点阵图（Dot Plot），但他本人并未提交，表示不进行前瞻性指引。
* 点阵图显示分歧：9名成员预测今年加息一次，8名预测不变，1名预测降息一次。
* 主持人朱莉·海曼认为，沃什希望市场关注数据本身，而非美联储的反应，甚至认为市场应“与美联储分手”，因为美联储对美国经济的影响力可能不如以往。
* 凯文·芒恩（Kenyon and Walsh CIO）认为，沃什“新官上任三把火”，可能通过工作组改变美联储规则，并质疑美联储多年来增加透明度反而导致更多困惑。
* 伊内斯（Yahoo Finance's Ines）认为沃什可能在寻找“实时数据”甚至调整通胀衡量方式（如PCE的修剪版本），这可能对市场有利。她也认为沃什的讲话旨在巩固权力，减少其他联储官员的公开表态。
* 沃什在发布会上表现得“过于玩笑”，但凯文·芒恩认为他的语调“更克制”，专注于改变数据收集方式。
* **市场表现与预期：**
* 美联储会议后，股指期货上涨。
* 周三市场因美联储新闻发布会而下跌，被认为是“规避风险”反应。道琼斯指数在美联储声明发布后大幅下跌。
* 周四市场有所反弹，标准普尔500指数几乎回到前几天的收盘水平。
* 詹妮弗·沙姆伯格（Jennifer Scharmburger）指出，美联储预计通胀要到2028年才能回到2%的目标，这表明通胀压力长期存在。市场对今年9月或10月加息的押注增加。
* 布鲁克·德·帕尔马（Brooke De Palma）表示，债券市场感到“恐慌”，两年期国债收益率出现自去年“解放日”以来最大波动，也是2008年以来美联储会议后最大波动。十年期国债收益率上涨超过7个基点。
* 亚当·特恩奎斯特（Adam Turnquist, LPL Financial）认为短期内市场受损，但长期看，市场已适应从降息到加息的预期转变。他预计今年夏天市场可能出现“一些动荡”。
* 大多数嘉宾认为，除非伊朗局势恶化导致油价飙升至100美元以上，否则美联储今年不会加息，但加息的可能性已大大增加。
**二、地缘政治与经济影响**
* **美国与伊朗的谅解备忘录（MOU）：**
* 美国与伊朗签署备忘录，市场希望霍尔木兹海峡的石油流动能更顺畅，从而平抑油价。
* 汽油价格已降至每加仑4美元以下。
* 塞玛·沙阿（Seema Shah, Principal Asset Management）指出，能源价格下跌有望在未来几个月降低通胀预期。
* 然而，她也提醒，地缘政治冲突在未来5-10年可能加剧，各国政府将增加能源安全和国防支出，可能导致通胀结构性走高。
**三、AI技术对经济和就业的影响**
* **通胀压力：**
* 蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook, Apple）表示iPhone价格将上涨，反映AI技术推高了内存芯片成本，目前AI是通胀而非通缩力量。
* 除了汽油，服务业（如水电工）等其他领域通胀依然显著。
* 伊内斯提到，AI工具（如Claude）的使用成本也在上升，未来可能导致更高价格。
* 凯文·芒恩补充说，AI基础设施的资本支出虽然创造就业，但尚未转化为生产率提升或利润率改善，因此目前是通胀的。
* 朱莉·海曼指出，AI的通胀效应并未体现在整体工资增长上，目前通胀增长高于工资增长，AI工程师除外。
* **AI与就业：**
* Brian Stass指出，科技公司今年已裁员10万人，高盛预计AI每月导致1.6万个美国工作岗位流失。
* 企业家兼前总统候选人杨安泽（Andrew Yang）表示，AI导致的失业潮“刚刚开始”，未来会更严重。他引用一位CEO的话，表示30%的员工将被裁掉，但收入将翻倍。
* 杨安泽认为，企业的目标是成本效益，而非创造就业。他主张政府应通过全民基本收入（UBI）来管理这种转型，并指出UBI的支持率已从2020年的30%上升到现在的60%。
* 他建议美国工人应努力掌握AI工具。
* 杨安泽支持对AI公司征税，认为就像电力一样，AI也应被征税和监管。他认为不应对人类劳动征税，而应对使用AI的公司征税。
* 谈到亿万富翁财富税，杨安泽认为在州层面征收是错误的，因为资本和富人具有流动性，会选择离开。
* **AI在零售业的应用（Agentic Shopping）：**
* 美国运通（American Express）的研究显示，78%的消费者认为AI对购物有积极影响，但只有35%的人愿意让AI代理完成购买。存在“信任差距”。
* 美国运通全球商户和网络服务总裁安娜·马尔斯（Ana Mars）表示，弥合这一差距需要时间和积极的用户体验。
* 目前处于“AI影响、人工批准”阶段，消费者已使用AI进行购物研究。
* 旅行被视为AI代理购物的“杀手级应用”，因为它购买过程复杂，价格波动大，AI可以持续监测。
* 商家对AI持开放态度，因为它能帮助解决“废弃购物车”问题，提高交易完成率和授权率。
* 美国运通提供“代理购买保护”以应对可能的“代理错误”。
**四、热门股票与行业动态**
* **科技股：**
* 英特尔（Intel）股价上涨8%，此前前总统特朗普在社交媒体上暗示英特尔将与苹果合作生产芯片。
* 半导体行业整体强劲反弹，包括博通（Broadcom）和英伟达（NVIDIA）。
* 凯文·芒恩提到，英伟达与台积电（Taiwan Semiconductor）合作在美国设厂，创造了就业机会。
* 杨安泽提到SpaceX等IPO正在被散户投资者追捧。
* 亚当·特恩奎斯特认为，MAG-7（科技巨头）并未“死亡”，但可能面临进一步回调，因为科技板块“超买”，且动量指标出现背离。
* Netflix曾考虑收购Roku（拥有1亿家庭用户，提供宝贵的收视数据），以及可能收购Lionsgate（补充内容库）。Netflix之前拒绝收购华纳兄弟探索（WBD）旗下的CNN，只对其电影工作室和HBO感兴趣。
* **其他公司：**
* 埃森哲（Accenture）：今年表现不佳（已下跌50%），营收预测低于预期，新订单下降2%。宣布以42亿美元收购一家网络安全公司。
* 辉瑞（Pfizer）：CFO将于8月15日离职，前往消费品行业。分析师质疑该公司在等待新减肥药上市之际的前景。分析师目标价仍有上涨空间（29.19美元 vs. 当前25美元）。
* 克罗格（Kroger）：盈利预测不尽如人意，Q2调整后收益和销售额预计与去年持平。公司称消费者承压，通胀成本可能上升。CEO表示不需做最低价零售商。股价下跌6%。
**五、金融咨询与财富平等**
* 亚历山德拉·胡德（Alexandria Hood, Wealth Cable Advisory）指出，低收入和单收入家庭往往认为自己不需要或负担不起财务顾问，这反映了传统金融行业对这些群体的营销不足。
* 她认为前总统特朗普提出的为婴儿建立账户（初始资金1000美元）是一个投资增长的机会。
* 面对财富不平等和“万亿富翁”的出现，她承认许多客户感到“系统被操纵”，但她也强调，富豪的成功表明可能性，鼓励人们学习并参与其中。
**六、纽约尼克斯队夺冠庆祝**
* 纽约尼克斯队夺冠，这是50多年来的首次。
* 纽约市举行盛大庆祝游行，预计有数万球迷参加，市内交通受影响，有1万名警察维持秩序。
* 此次夺冠对纽约市经济产生巨大影响：主场比赛经济影响达3.82亿美元，总决赛每场可达9000万美元（包括门票、酒吧消费等）。
* 麦迪逊广场花园的股价也因此受益。
* 现在所谓的“纸带游行（ticker tape parade）”实际上使用的是碎纸屑。
**美联储前景预测（Matt Luzzetti, 德意志银行首席美国经济学家）：**
* 美联储利率远高于中性水平，金融条件非常宽松，但目前的政策利率低于其模型建议的水平。
* 尽管没有将加息纳入基线预测，但如果通胀在能源价格下跌后不能持续下降，美联储今年仍可能需要加息。
* 沃什的改革目标明确：精简沟通（声明从340字减至130字，类似格林斯潘时代）、取消点阵图（因市场过度解读）、以及审视资产负债表（沃什认为其推动通胀和不平等，倾向于缩减）。
* 取消点阵图将是积极的沟通改革。
* 美联储不提供前瞻性指引和框架将导致市场空白和波动性增加，可能提高风险资产和债券市场的风险溢价。
* 尽管美联储运作方式改变，但其对经济和市场的重要性仍然至关重要。
摘要
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GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
欢迎来到雅虎财经的《晨间简报》。我是朱莉·海曼，今天与我一起的是雅虎财经的NS4A和凯文·蒙恩，Kenyon和Walsh的首席信息官。谢谢你们来到这里。很乐意参与。我们今天早上有很多内容要讨论。目前期货在上涨，人们正在消化昨天凯文·沃尔什首次会议的内容。同时，我们也在关注美国确实已与伊朗签署了一项谅解备忘录，因此市场上有不同的力量在起作用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Welcome to Yahoo Finances Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman, joined today by Yahoo Finances NS4A and by Kevin Munn, Kenyon and Walsh CIO. Thanks for being here, guys. My pleasure. So we have a lot to talk about here this morning. We've got futures that are trading higher, and people are digesting what we heard from Kevin Walsh in his first meeting yesterday. We are also digesting that, indeed, the U.S. has signed this Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, so sort of some different forces at work in the market.
但我确实想稍微深入探讨一下美联储的问题，因为这次凯文·沃尔什的首次新闻发布会是一件大事。我们不知道这样的新闻发布会还会有多少次。事实上，我们所知道的非常有限，只知道他成立了多个工作组来处理各种事务，也许某个时候我们会得到更多的信息。不过，他没有给我们关于美联储下一步可能行动的前瞻性指引。伊内斯，我们已经一起关注美联储有一段时间了。你知道，在缺乏更多信息的情况下，市场通常都会假设美联储会采取鹰派态度。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I do want to dig into the Fed a little bit, because it was a big deal, Kevin Walsh's first press conference. We don't know for how many more of those press conferences we're going to get. In fact, we know very little, except that he has task forces to work on a lot of different items, and maybe at some point we'll get more information. But also that he's not giving us sort of forward guidance as to what the Fed might do next. Ines, we've been covering the Fed for a while here together. Like, you know, the market, in the absence of more information, assumed hawkish.
好的。他们假设立场会更强硬，并且认为这明显是偏向更强硬的立场。但我认为，关键在于，从那次新闻发布会和他的回答中，似乎显示出他打算改变现状。他想在这里搞些新动作，我们会组建一些特别小组，不要指望事情会像以前那样。而且在我看来，另一个关键点是他们将关注不同的数据、实时数据。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. And they assumed hawkish, and they assumed that this was definitely a bias towards a more hawkish tilt. But I think that the bottom line is, is that from that presser, from his responses, it just seemed like, I'm going to shake things up. I'm shaking things up here, and we are going to create these task forces, and don't expect things to be the same as before. And the bottom line, to me, was also that they are going to be looking at data that's different data, real-time data.
这句话可以翻译成中文为：
或许，我认为这对市场来说实际上是利好的，因为我觉得这意味着，我们可能不会再关注之前的历史数据，比如PCE（个人消费支出）。也许他们会关注一个调整后的PCE版本，可能会排除一些因素，从而显示通胀处于一个更有利的位置。在我看来，即使市场反应显示出更为鹰派的态度，认为今年可能会加息，这就是我从中得到的信息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And perhaps, I think this is actually bullish for the market, because I think that this means that, look, we're not going to perhaps look at this backwards data from before, perhaps PCE. Maybe they're going to be looking at a trimmed version of PCE. Maybe they're going to be excluding things so that it shows that inflation is somewhere where maybe it's more, it tilts more favorably towards inflation. That, to me, was what I got from, even though you saw the market responding, thinking, this is more hawkish, there may be a rate hike this year.
但归根结底，我认为那并不是他真正想表达的内容，也许他想传达的是其他信息。是的，我觉得很明显，凯文·摩尔在暗示有新的管理者接手了。美联储未来的运营规则可能会有所改变，可能不会马上实施，而是通过这些工作小组，逐渐实现。我觉得最有趣的是，虽然他本人没有这样做，但他实际上鼓励其他18位有投票权的成员在点图上提供数据，以更新他们的经济预测概要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But at the end of the day, I didn't think that that's really what he was saying, telegraphing. I think he was telegraphing something else, perhaps. Yeah. It was clear to me that Kevin Moore signaled there's a new sheriff in town. There's going to be new operating rules for the Fed going forward, perhaps not immediately, but through these task forces, perhaps over time. What I found most interesting is that he actually encouraged the other 18 voting members to supply dots on the dot plot charts to update their summary of economic projections, even though he did not.
他自己没有给出任何这样的预测或展望。是的，他们确实预测今年可能会有一次加息，但他们也预测明年可能会有一次降息。如果你查看点阵图，也许我们不能再详细讨论点阵图了，所以今天就来谈谈吧。图中显示有九位投票成员预测今年会有一次加息，另外八位成员预测今年的利率不会有变化，而最后一位成员则预测今年会有一次降息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
He abstained from any such dots or forward-looking projections himself. And yes, they did forecast one potential rate hike this year. But they also forecasted one potential rate cut next year. And if you look at the dot plot chart, and perhaps we're not going to be able to talk about the dot plot chart that much longer, so let's do it today. You had nine of the voting members forecasting around one rate hike this year. Eight other members forecasting nothing with interest rates this year. And one final member forecasting one rate cut this year.
所以在这里没有达成一致意见。因此，如果有人从那个记者会和会议中出来后认为将会有更加强硬的语气和即将加息，我认为我们还没有到那个地步。我们并不是支持降息，但也不支持加息。我的意思是，听着，过去几天我一直在说，很高兴可以告别点阵图。因为点阵图上的点会改变，而且确实会改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So there's no unanimity there. So for people to come out of that presser and out of that meeting thinking that there's going to be more hawkish tones and rate hikes are on the way, I don't think we're there just yet. We're not in the camp of rate cuts by any means, but we're not in the camp of rate hikes. I mean, listen, I've been saying over the past couple of days, good riddance to the dot plot. Like, let's get rid of the dot plot. Because the dots can change and do change.
过去几年教会我们的一个重要事情是，我们自己和美联储对经济和通胀的未来走向都看不清楚。所以，不如停止假装去预测这些，不如取消这样的尝试。不过，Warsh 的话中缺少了一些东西。如果他不想提供前瞻性指导，那也可以理解。但问题是连一个基本的框架都没有。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And if there's anything that the last few years have taught us, it's that we do not have, nor does the Fed have, good visibility on what's going to happen with the economy or what's going to happen with inflation. So let's stop pretending and just get rid of the thing and eliminate the exercise. What was missing, however, from Warsh, you know, if he doesn't want to give forward guidance, fine. But there's not even a framework.
就像市场一样，我今天早上看到很多评论，大家都在说：给我们点东西呀。告诉我们你是怎么想的。而他的意思基本是，我会在所有这些工作组开会之后再告诉你们。所以市场还得再等一会儿。因此，我的想法是，也许市场是时候与美联储“分手”了。对吧？这似乎也是他想要的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like, the market, what I've seen this morning in a lot of commentary is like, give us something, man. Like, give us, like, how are you thinking about this? And he's basically saying, I will give you that after all these task forces meet. So the market is going to have to wait a little bit longer. And so my thought was kind of like, maybe it's time for the market to sort of break up with the Fed. Right? Which seems to kind of be what he wants.
他希望市场关注数据，而不是市场对美联储反应的预期。这就是他的意思。是的，这基本上就是他说的。他确实这么说了。所以，我们或许应该听取他的建议，也许我们需要减少对美联储的过度关注。我还想说，抱歉，我有点激动，我认为美联储对当前美国经济的重要性有所下降。因为美国经济的很多部分对利率的敏感性降低。因此，我们需要减少对其的过度重视。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
He wants the market to pay attention to the data, not to how the market thinks the Fed is going to react. Which is what he said. Yeah, which is basically what he said. He said that. So, like, maybe we should take his advice. Maybe we need to stop paying so much attention to the Fed. And I would argue as well, sorry, I'm getting on the soapbox here. I would argue as well that the Fed is less important for the U.S. economy right now. That a lot of portions of the U.S. economy are less rate sensitive. And therefore, like, we need to stop weighting it as heavily as we do.
好的，当然是在利率不那么敏感的情况下。我是说，这个经济体非常强劲。即便您看看初次申请失业救济的数据，结果也是积极的。所以，这个经济体很强大，劳动力市场也很稳健。保持利率不变并没有产生太大影响。我的意思是，AI资本支出的巨大投资仍在继续推动这个经济体。因此，就您所说，即使他们对利率做出一些调整，真的会对整体经济产生多大影响呢？没错。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, on the less rate sensitive, for sure. I mean, this economy is strong. If you took even a look at the initial jobless claims, those came in positive as well. So this is a strong economy. The labor market is strong. And the interest rates, holding them steady, haven't done much. I mean, you still have this enormous AI CapEx spending. And that's what's driving this economy. So, to your point, even if they were to do something with rates, how much influence will it really have on the overall economy? Right.
当然，美联储的重要性毋庸置疑。他们肩负着来自国会的双重使命：促进充分就业和维持物价稳定，这些都是非常重要的责任。然而，过去六年来，随着我们努力提高透明度，反而可能导致了更多的困惑。在各次会议之间，不同的美联储官员发表了太多言论，这些言论中常常彼此矛盾，让像我这样的投资者和投资组合经理感到不知所措。但这种情况不会消失，对吧？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Not that the Fed isn't important. They are. Their dual mandate from Congress to promote full employment and price stability are very important. But where we've come in the last six years in the effort to provide more transparency, I think, has created more confusion. There's so much rhetoric out there in between meetings from different Fed governors, often contradicting each other, that it leaves investors and portfolio managers like myself saying, I don't know. But that's not going to go away, right?
事实上，我昨天见过一些人并和他们交流过，他们提出这个问题可能会变得更加严重。如果主席不再提供指导，那么所有的美联储发言就会填补这个空白。我认为他会减少其他美联储官员之间的沟通。但他能这样做吗？为什么不能呢？看看昨天就知道了。因为他们是独立的，如果他们想发表讲话，他们可以出去说，不是吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
In fact, I've seen people and talked to people yesterday who posited that that's going to be even more acute. If the chair is stepping back from providing that, then you have that vacuum filled by all of that Fed speak. I think he's going to pull back the amount of communication amongst the other Fed governors. Can he do that, though? Why can't he? Well, look at yesterday. Well, because they're independent. They can go out and talk if they want to talk, can't they?
他是否有权限去告诉他们不可以说话，我不太确定。也许工作小组会同意这个建议并因此收回要求。不过，我其实是支持你的，我认为这里有一种权力的集中。即使看看昨天的小评论，他似乎是为团队发言。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Does he have the, I don't know if he has the jurisdiction to tell them not to talk. Maybe the task forces will agree with this recommendation and pull that back. I'm actually on your camp. I think that there's more of a consolidation of power here. If you take a look even at the commentary, the small commentary yesterday, he kind of spoke for, he spoke for the team.
我的意思是，他确实提到过一些不同的派别，各自有自己的诉求，但他更强调的是，我们进行了一场很好的“家庭内部的斗争”等等。不过，他确实表现出一种团结的态度，仿佛代表整个团队在发言。我相信你的想法有道理。但我不确定我们会从“后代（Descendants）”那里看到太多评论。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mean, he did talk about different, that there were some factions that wanted something or the other, but he really talked about we had a good fight, a family fight, et cetera. But he really seemed to have this cohesive, like, I'm talking for the entire team here. That was, I believe that you're onto something. I'm not sure that we're going to see that much commentary from Descendants.
我的意思是，当你提到他的语气和他的家庭时，我想说的另一点是，他的玩笑开得有点过了，我不得不承认。就像，我在这里好像有些自相矛盾。一方面我说美联储在美国经济中的影响力不如从前，但这仍然是一个非常重要的职位。而他则好像在说：“我会解决所有问题。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mean, the other thing I would say when you talk about his tone and his family, like, he was a little overly jokey for my taste, I have to admit. Like, you know, even as I say, like, I'm talking about both sides of my mouth here. Even as I say that the Fed is less influential in the U.S. economy than it used to be, it's a really important job. And here he is, like, you know, he's kind of like, I'm going to fix everything.
我有所有的项目小组。哦，我会在每个回答里开个玩笑。不过，我觉得他的语气更克制一些。我承认，有时他的态度有点随意。但很多人原本以为他上任主席后会立即采取行动，比如降息、迎合政府。但实际上，我们并没有看到这些。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I've got all the task forces. Oh, I'm going to crack jokes every answer I give. Well, I don't know. I thought his tone was more measured. I mean, it was a little bit loosey-goosey at times. I'll give you that point. But a lot of people thought he was coming into this chairmanship role. It was going to be immediate, though. We're going to see rate cuts. He's going to kowtow to the administration. And if anything, we didn't get that.
不，我们没有得到那个。实际上，他真正关注的是改变美联储收集数据的方式，以便做出非常重要的决策。这正是我们一直在要求的，很多人多年来都在呼吁这一点。是的，他具体怎么做，我不知道。也许工作小组会找到解决方法。如果这么简单，为什么他们还没有做到呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
No, we did not get that. In fact, what he really focused on is changing the manner in which the Fed accumulates data to make very important decisions. And that's what we've been all asking for. Which people have been calling for for years. Yes. How he does that, I don't know. Maybe the task forces will figure it out. If it's that easy, why haven't they done it already?
为什么每位经济学家都不能准确预测未来，如果拥有预测未来的能力是如此容易的话？正确，是的。正如你所说的，也许我们不应该完全依赖美联储来指引我们的决策。但美联储仍然掌控着短期利率，并且控制着其资产负债表的规模。这两个因素非常重要，所以我绝不会忽视它们。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Why doesn't every economist know exactly what's going to happen if it's so easy to get all this predictive power? Correct. Yes. And to your point, maybe we shouldn't be relying upon the Fed to guide our decisions in that regard. But the Fed still controls short-term interest rates. They still control the size of their balance sheet. And those are two very important factors. So I'm not going to ignore them by any means.
但我对这个新的美联储可能带来的结果感到乐观。不过，我们拭目以待。也许他那样的语气是因为他真的不打算透露太多。我是说，他真的守口如瓶，尽管具体表达有不同的说法。也许那些玩笑话是因为他真的把关注点转移到了我正在创建的特别工作组和相关信息传递上。他试图不说太多。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I am encouraged by what may come out of this new Fed. But we'll see. And perhaps his tone was because he really was not going to reveal much. I mean, he really held his cards close to his vest or chest or however that saying is. But it really was, maybe those jokey points were because he really was bringing it back to the task force that I'm creating and that messaging. Trying not to say much.
好的。对，在没有明确说明的情况下，他就和房间里的其他人打趣。好了，那么我们继续讨论下一个话题，因为这个很重要，它也反映了他工作中的一部分挑战。这与价格有关。苹果产品的价格和iPhone价格正在上涨，而汽油价格在下降。虽然在伊朗战争初期就已经跌破四美元一加仑，但自从那场冲突开始之前，价格甚至已低于三美元一加仑。嗯，是的，谢谢。我们很乐意看到汽油价格的降低。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Right. Right. So in the absence of saying that, he kind of like bantered. Yes. With the people in the room. All right. Well, moving on to our next item, because this is an important one and illustrates part of the challenge in his job. And it has to do with prices. So Apple prices, iPhone prices are going up. Gasoline prices are coming down. Right. So gasoline prices below $4 a gallon now for the first time since near the beginning of the Iran war, although they were below $3 even before that conflict began. So that, you know, yes, thank you. We will take that. Gasoline prices going lower.
另一方面，蒂姆·库克告诉《华尔街日报》，我们将看到一些更昂贵的iPhone。他没有说明这些手机会有多贵。但这说明了仅仅将人工智能视为通缩力量的问题。因为人工智能会提高生产力。但目前，它其实是一个通胀的因素，正在推动内存芯片价格上涨，导致像苹果这样的公司提高价格。而且，如果继续把更多的制造业带到美国，比如英特尔和苹果可能在美国合作制造芯片，这种趋势还会持续。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
On the flip side, Tim Cook telling the Wall Street Journal that we're going to see some more expensive iPhones. He didn't say how expensive they're going to be. But this illustrates the problem with thinking about AI just as a disinflationary force. Because it's going to boost productivity. Because right now, it's an inflationary force. It's driving up memory chip prices and causing companies like Apple to raise their prices. Yeah. And it's going to continue as well if you keep bringing more manufacturing to the U.S. to the point of Intel and Apple perhaps working together to make chips here.
看，我认为这个通货膨胀的问题，尤其是在汽油价格方面，确实很严重。但在经济中的许多其他方面，也能看到通货膨胀。我是说，甚至是在服务行业。你找个手艺人帮你做点什么，这会花钱。你想修理家里的任何东西，也得花钱。哦，我能感觉到这里有些敏感，你最近可能试过这些。是的，而且这些价格并没有下降。它们什么时候会下降？不会的。因此，当你看看iPhone时，是的，某一天iPhone可能要花2000美元或3000美元，你基本上可以看到这一点。我不确定你是否还能再看到一部售价800美元或600美元的iPhone。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Look, I believe that this whole inflation thing, yes, on gasoline price is great. But there are many, many other parts of the economy where you see inflation. I mean, even services. You try and get a handyman to do something for you and it will cost you. You try to fix anything in your house, it will cost you. Oh, I'm sensing some sensitivity here right now. This is something you recently tried to do. Yes. And these are not, these prices are not coming down. When are they coming down? They're not. And so when you take a look at the iPhone, yeah, an iPhone costing $2,000, $3,000 someday, you can pretty much see that. I'm not sure that you're going to get an iPhone that's at $800 or $600 again.
是的，我认为美联储也赞同你所说的。他们昨天将核心个人消费支出（PC）的预测提高到了3.3%。尽管他们相信明年会降到2.5%，并在2028年接近他们的2%目标。他们预计今年剩余时间会有更多的通胀压力。这就是为什么我觉得我们有点困在中间：劳动市场相对强劲，经济继续增长，通胀在上升。我们不能加息，但也不能降息。所以我们只能静观其变，让专家小组去找出更好的数据对策。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, and I think the Fed is in agreement with exactly what you're saying because they raised their forecast for core PC yesterday to 3.3%, even though they believe it's going to come down to 2.5% next year and get closer to their 2% target by 2028. So they see more inflationary pressures for the balance of this year. That's why I think we're kind of stuck between labor market is relatively strong. The economy continues to grow. Inflation is rising. We can't hike rates, but we can't lower rates either. So we're just going to sit and do nothing and let the task force figure out how to get better data.
好吧，你觉得他们今年会加息吗？我觉得不会。我也觉得他们不会加息。我认为他们今年不会有什么动作。当我说我不认为他们会加息时，人们都觉得我疯了。高盛也不认为他们会加息。他们表示尽管有加息预期，但实际上他们认为明年可能会出现一些降息。唯一的变数是，如果这份谅解备忘录失效，而在接下来的60天内，军事冲突再次升级，海峡再次关闭，导致油价回升到100美元以上。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, okay, so do you think they're going to hike this year? I do not. I don't think they're going to hike either. I don't think they're going to do anything this year. People look at me like I'm crazy when I say I don't think they're going to hike. Goldman Sachs doesn't think they're going to hike either. They're saying that even though there's an expectation, they're thinking that next, they're actually looking at some cuts perhaps next year or so. The only caveat to that is let's say this memorandum of understanding unwinds. And over the next 60 days now, the military conflict re-escalates and the strait closes again and oil prices shoot back up over 100.
现在，我们正处于一个油气价格长期居高不下的时期。美联储不能只是袖手旁观，坐等事态自行解决。是啊，历史上他们确实曾对这些情况采取观望态度，认为这只是暂时性的。我知道，说到“暂时性”这个词，大家都会在家里无奈苦笑。是啊，这个暂时性的想法并没有如愿奏效。而就伊内斯所说，服务和其他商品的价格持续上涨。所以，我不清楚人们的信心来自哪里，他们为什么认为价格会回落，或是上涨的速度会减缓。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now we're in a period of very sustained high oil and gas prices. The Fed can't just stand by and sit and wait for that. Yeah, I mean, historically, they've looked through these sorts of things, right? Thinking it's going to be, I hate to say it, transitory. Yeah, everybody drink at home, right? Yeah, I mean, and it's tricky. That whole transitory thing didn't work out that well. And to Inez's point, prices just keep going up for services and other items. So I don't know where that confidence comes from that the prices are going to come down or that the rate of increase is going to come down.
好吧，他们可以指出油价下降，所以这意味着食品成本和运输成本都会降低。这都很好。但经济中还有其他方面。 我之前的观点是，在日常生活中，消费者在其他方面感到压力。是的，确实如此。而且，我认为即使凯文·沃什希望预期这种情况，我们还没有看到人工智能带来的降低通货膨胀的效果和生产力的提升。 这可能还需要一段时间才能实现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, they can point to, look, oil prices are lower. So this means that it is going to translate into lower food costs and lower transportation costs. So all of that, that's fine. But there are other parts of the economy. My point earlier was there are other parts of your daily living that the consumer is feeling stretched on. Yeah, most definitely. And I don't think we see, even though Kevin Warsh wants to anticipate it, we don't see yet the disinflationary effect of AI and that productivity boost. And that may not come for some time.
你知道，现在企业在资本支出（CapEx）上的投资达到了数十亿美元。这些投资正在建设基础设施，并创造就业机会，但这些花费并未转化为企业提高生产力或利润率。因此，这种支出目前并没有带来通货紧缩的效果。相反，现在它实际上是通货膨胀的。然而，从长远来看，你可以想象这些投资可能会带来通货紧缩。有趣的是，现在的通胀并没有体现在工资上涨上。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, you think about the billions of dollars in CapEx spending that's taking place right now. It's really built out the infrastructure that's creating jobs, but it hasn't translated into improved productivity or improved profit margin with the companies that are spending all this money right now. So it's not disinflationary right now. If anything, it's inflationary right now. But over time, you'd have to imagine it's going to be disinflationary. What's so interesting to me is it is inflationary right now, but not with wages.
好的。是的，因为目前通货膨胀增长高于工资增长。所以我想，这些受直接影响的工资是通货膨胀的，但从整体来看却不是。不过你看看一些AI工程师的工资，真是惊人。我认为在整个经济中，不同领域的差异还是很大的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Right, because inflation growth is higher than wage growth right now. So it's not, I mean, I assume it's inflationary with the wages that are directly affected, but not. You look at the wages of some of these AI engineers, though, staggering. Yeah. So I think it is disparate across the economy.
好的。即使你使用AI，我前几天用的Claude，就到达了使用上限。现在我得再额外花钱，而且是按月付费的。这就是他们赚钱的方式。哦，等等，你用的是Opus版本还是低配版？哦，可能我用的是低配版吧，我现在每月要付29美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. And even if you use AI, I mean, I was using Claude the other day. I maxed out on it. Now I have to pay some more. And I'm paying it per month. That's when they get you. Oh, wait, hang on. Hang on. Are you using Opus or are you using the lower model? Oh, maybe I'm using the lower model. I don't know. I'm paying $29 a month for it.
我的意思是，你应该尽量在能行的情况下使用模型，而不是完全用尽它的能力。所以，如果你不是在做特别复杂的事情，不要选择最快的Opus模型。使用其他模型的话，设备的续航会更长。这是我的建议。这真是个很棒的专业贴士。谢谢。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
What I'm saying is you should be used, if you can get away with, you don't want to max out the strength of the model. So don't use Opus, which I think is the fastest one, if you're not doing, like, super complex stuff. It'll last longer if you're using them. That's my tip. That's a great pro tip. Thank you.
根据我的理解，以下是这段话的中文翻译：
你至少是今天的亮点。我的意思是在这一点上，我们似乎在承担所有这些费用，对吧？所以我的意思是，你会看到这个（服务或产品）的价格进一步上涨吗？因为现在看来，我们正努力让尽可能多的人参与进来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You're at least tip of the day. My point being is that at this point, we appear to be subsidized in the cost of all of this, right? And so my point is, is that are you going to see even higher prices for that? I mean, going forward. So because right now it appears to be, oh, we're trying to get as many people on this as possible.
我们都会变得上瘾。是的，确实如此。但这可能会导致通货膨胀。是啊，感觉是这样。如果你要谈论苹果和接下来的话题，我不想转变话题。那就谈吧。不过你想想，他们在美国建立芯片生产的战略合作伙伴关系。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We all get addicted. Yes, exactly. But that's going to be inflationary. Yeah. It feels like it. I don't want to use a segue here if you're going to go into Apple and tell next. Let's do it. But you think about that strategic partnership there to build chips and do it here onshore in the U.S.
你可以想一下NVIDIA做了什么。好，现在让我们回到我们讨论的话题。今天早上，特朗普在Truth Social上发文，聊到了英特尔。他说英特尔和一些公司有制造芯片的协议，现在他的意思是英特尔和苹果也有某种协议。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You think about what NVIDIA did. OK, so let's back up what we're talking about here. So Trump this morning posting on Truth Social and talking about that Intel has had agreements with various companies to manufacture chips. And now he's saying they have some sort of agreement with Apple.
我们还没有具体细节。目前我们还没有详细信息，也没有收到来自这些公司的确认。所以我们要谨慎。但英特尔的股东们并没有等待，他们已经将股票价格抬高了8%。当然，如果情况属实，他们这样做是应该的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We don't have details on it. We don't have details yet. And we don't have, I don't think we have confirmation from the companies themselves as of yet. So that's the caution. But Intel shareholders aren't waiting. They're bidding up the stock by 8%. Absolutely. And if it's accurate, they should be.
当然。但我也认为，除了美国政府的影响之外，你还要考虑到NVIDIA和台湾积体电路制造公司之间发生的事情。NVIDIA是全球最大的芯片销售商，却不生产自己的芯片，而是由台湾积体电路制造公司代工。但NVIDIA很聪明，他们与台湾积电合作，在美国亚利桑那州凤凰城建立生产能力，开始在美国设计和制造自己的芯片。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. But I also think beyond the reaches of the U.S. government, you think about what took place between NVIDIA and Taiwan Semiconductor. NVIDIA, the largest seller of chips in the world, doesn't make their own chips. Taiwan Semiconductor does. But NVIDIA was smart because they partnered with Taiwan Semiconductor to build the capacity here in the U.S. in Phoenix, Arizona, to design their own chips and manufacture their own chips here in the U.S.
这在美国创造了大量的新工作岗位，并为亚利桑那州凤凰城周边的社区带来了好处。而且这只是他们计划在这里建造的三个工厂之一。因此，尽管大家都在关注人工智能可能减少劳动力，这其实为增加劳动力提供了新的机会。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That created an abundance of new jobs in the United States and it benefited the surrounding community in Phoenix, Arizona. And that's just one of three plants they're looking to build here. So there is an added component to actually increasing the labor force when everyone's so focused on AI taking away from the labor force.
好的，但这真的可持续吗？嗯，昨天在一个会议上，杰夫·贝索斯也提到了这一点。他认为人工智能将会增加就业机会，而不是减少。我听说过这个观点。事实上，迈尔斯·乌德林在我们的对话中也经常谈到这个问题，我并不是说他比杰夫·贝索斯更聪明，但他确实常常提及。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. But is that sustainable? Well, and that's something Jeff Bezos said at a conference yesterday, too. He thinks AI is going to increase the workforce, not decrease. I've heard that. In fact, Miles Udlin, I mean, I won't say he was smarter than Jeff Bezos, but this is something he talked about frequently in our conversations.
他说，如果我是一个企业领导者，我会逆势而行，并说：不，我们将继续招人。因为人工智能将创造更多的需求，而且我们将需要更多的人力来满足这些需求。虽然我们还不完全清楚具体怎么做，但最终我们肯定会需要更多的人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
He would say, if I was a corporate leader, I would be leaning against that tide and saying, no, we're going to be hiring. Because AI will create more demand and we're going to need more people to, we don't know how necessarily yet, but you're going to need more people to meet that demand.
“我也对英特尔和苹果之间的事情感兴趣，因为这个主题——那些不断赶上人工智能浪潮的老牌公司——真的很有意思。正如我也一直在谈论的那些传统企业。是的，这些传统公司构成了基础设施的一部分。”
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But the Intel Apple thing is interesting to me as well because this theme of like these older companies that keep catching the AI wave is really interesting. It's the legacy plays that I've been talking about as well. Yes, these legacy companies that are part of the infrastructure play.
我觉得苹果的情况非常有趣，因为越来越多的人工智能将会在本地完成。虽然目前苹果在人工智能领域并不是大家热议的对象，但随着芯片的进步，如果我们能在手机上实现更多的人工智能推理，那么苹果在这个领域的影响力将会越来越大。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And with Apple, I think it's very interesting because more and more of AI is going to be done locally. So Apple right now, it hasn't been the big talk about town with respect to the AI trade, but increasingly it will be if you get these chips to be even more, if you get more of the AI inferencing to happen locally on your phone.
在未来，这将成为苹果和他们所能开发的产品的巨大助力。但就你提到的传统业务而言，是的，本周西部数据达到了历史新高。同时，思科也成为了英特尔业务中的重要一员。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in the future, this is going to be a huge sort of tailwind for Apple as well and the products that they can build. But to your legacy play, yes, you've had Western Digital this week that's been at all-time highs. You've had Cisco that's been one of the players in Intel.
所以，为了让人工智能产业继续发展，各种硬件支持是必不可少的。而苹果现在确实需要一些利好消息，因为在整个 MAG-7 集团中，他们一直表现得比较落后。至于我把 Air 7 与 MAG-7 做比较的想法，请别让我开始谈这个，不过如果你需要，我也很乐意深入讨论。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So all of these sort of hardware plays that you need this in order to keep the AI trade going. Yeah, and Apple certainly needs a tailwind right now as they've been one of the laggards within the overall MAG-7. Don't get me started on my Air 7 comparison to MAG-7, although I'm happy to go there if you need me to.
但我也认为另一个重要的立足点是，我们在考虑下一个AI革命的领域是什么？我们还没到那个阶段。是量子计算。没错，而这就涉及到了大蓝（IBM）。谁会想到IBM会成为量子计算的领导者呢？实际上他们确实是这样的。毕竟，他们在这一领域已经耕耘很长时间了。所以，现在我们经济中正在发生的这些主题趋势，正凸显出一些有经验、财务稳健并有能力在AI革命的漫长过程中坚持下来的公司。我仍然认为AI革命才刚刚开始，甚至只是处于试水阶段，因为我们还需要建立相关的基础设施。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I also think another legacy play, I mean, what's the next realm in the AI revolution? We're not there yet. Quantum computing. Yes. And that brings in big blue, IBM. Who would have thought that IBM would be a leader in quantum computing? They actually are. Well, they've been doing it for a long time. They've been doing it for a long time. So all of a sudden now, these thematic trends that are taking place across our economy are bringing out some of the companies that have been experienced, that have solid balance sheets and have the staying power to withstand the length of this AI revolution, which I still contend is only in its very early innings, if not batting practice, because we still need to build out the infrastructure.
是的，我的意思是，关于量子领域，明确地说，我们还在等待它的发展。它的阶段比人工智能贸易还要早得多。许多量子公司，目前只有IBM是个例外，而不是普遍情况。这些量子公司大多还没有盈利，实际上我应该说，还没有一家独立的量子公司盈利，因为在大多数情况下，它们还处于研究实验阶段。不过我在想，随着人工智能的持续发展，我们不断发现新的领域。我一直在谈论这个主题，比如说，还有没有哪个领域尚未被发现？每当这些新领域出现时，你就会想，下一个会是什么呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, I mean, quantum, to be clear, quantum, like, we're still waiting for that. It's even earlier stage than the AI trade is. And a lot of those companies, IBM is the exception, of course, rather than the rule. A lot of these quantum companies don't make any money yet. I shouldn't say a lot of them. I don't think any of them make any money yet, the standalone quantum companies, because it's more in the sort of research experimental phase in most of those cases. But I am wondering, like, as the AI trade keeps rolling on and we keep sort of discovering new pockets, this is a theme I keep talking about, like, is there any stone left unturned? Is there any part that we haven't realized yet? And just when they pop up, you think, what's the next one?
不过，正如你所说，这些主题投资和主题ETF正在加速资金流入，就像2020年那样。Jared Blickery 也曾写过相关内容。这些ETF的主题包括太空、量子、核能等，这背后有一个完整的故事。在2020年代，投资的重点在于应用程序和科技，而现在则转向火箭、反应堆以及与这些工业相关的领域。接下来是AI交易的下一个阶段。好了，我们得留点时间在最后讨论这个话题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But to your point, these thematic plays, thematic ETFs, I mean, Jared Blickery had written something on this as well, that you've seen accelerating flows into these ETFs, similar to 2020. And that would be space, that would be quantum, that would be nuclear. So it's really a story. In the 2020s, it was about apps and tech. This is about rockets, reactors, everything to do with these sort of industrial plays as well, if you will. And that next phase of the AI trade. All right. We got to save a little time at the end here.
好的，加油尼克斯！耶！这个星期我和波士顿体育迷Josh Schaefer聊天。哦，真对不起。他说，他为尼克斯感到很高兴，但是，好像纽约的每个人都觉得全国都在支持他们，并认为尼克斯是唯一的一支球队。我就想，是啊，我们确实这样认为。我觉得这就是典型的纽约市自豪感，觉得我们是世界上最好的城市。虽然看我们这个节目很久的人都知道我不太迷体育，但我真的为尼克斯的胜利感到兴奋。这对城市来说是件好事，对纽约市民来说也是件好事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Go Knicks! Yay! So I was chatting with Josh Schaefer earlier in the week, who is a Boston sports fan. Oh, I'm so sorry. And he was like, I'm very happy about the Knicks, but, like, everybody in New York thinks that the whole country is behind you and that, like, the Knicks are the only team. And I'm like, hell yeah, we do. I'm like, that's the classic New York City chauvinism, that we're the best city in the world. And listen, anybody who watches this show for any length of time knows I'm not a big sports fan. But, like, I'm really excited that the Knicks won. It's a great thing for the city. It's a great thing for the people of New York.
今天有一个盛大的纸带游行，将在大约40分钟后开始。今天通勤进城的人都受到了影响。我们都看到了尼克斯队的球迷。或者我知道你是开车来的，路上肯定有尼克斯队的交通拥堵。今天街上将有一万名警察维持秩序。我看到早上7:30的时候，纽约市中心指定的区域已经满是人了，人群已经涌入。所以，今天纽约市肯定会非常热闹。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And there's a big ticker tape parade today that is set to begin, what, in about 40 minutes. Everybody who commuted in today was affected by this. We all saw the Knicks fans. Or I know you drove in. There was definitely some Knicks traffic. They're going to have 10,000 police officers on the ground today. I saw by 7.30 a.m. the, like, designated area in downtown New York was already full. Like, the people had already streamed in. So it's going to be crazy today in New York City.
是的，关于乔什的评论，我的意思是，拜托，巴哈姆巴。这已经是，他们已经有超过50年没有赢过了？所以这是纽约的一个时刻。就让纽约享受这个时刻吧。关于你提到的游行，我看到有人在排队的地方坐着。是的，你可以花钱请人帮你排队。这太不可思议了。或者你甚至可以住在酒店里。想象一下，如果你在其中一座办公楼里观看这游行，也是很不错的体验。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. And to Josh's comment, I mean, Bahamba, come on. This is, you know, it's been, what, more than 50 years since they've won? So this is a moment for New York. Just let New York have its moment. To your point about this parade, I saw that some, there were some sitters for places. Yes, you could pay people to hold your place in line. That's wild. Or you could even, or you could get a hotel. I mean, imagine if you're in, like, one of the office buildings up there as well. You're watching this parade.
但是不，这一刻是重要的。这是纽约的一个重要时刻。还有一点，Sazi曾把现在和1999年进行过对比，那时他们进入了季后赛，但没能进入总决赛。然后，我看到过互联网泡沫破裂。或许这也是一个你可能看不见的好兆头。我们展示了所有在那等待游行开始的人。所以，值得一提的是，今天也很热，希望在场的每个人都带了允许的塑料水瓶，当然，他们不能带玻璃瓶。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But no, this is a moment. This is a moment for New York. And one other thing is, is that Sazi had compared before when, back in 1999, when they went to the playoffs, but they didn't make the championship. And then you had, I saw the dot-com bubble bust. Now, maybe this is a good almond that you won't see. And we're showing all the people there who are waiting for the parade to begin. So, and it's steamy today as well, we should mention. So hopefully everybody there brought their allowed plastic water bottle. They're not allowed to bring glass bottles, of course.
所以我这样做了。装的不是水，谁知道呢？我在衣柜深处找到了一件尼克斯颜色的东西。哦，真好。这是我用橙色和蓝色眼睛能做到的最好了。不，我觉得你做得很棒，这一点绝对能加分。对于这座城市和等待了50年的尼克斯球迷来说，这是个多么美好的时刻。我也是个终生的喷气机队粉丝，真是悲哀。你能想象如果喷气机队进入季后赛，这座城市会怎样吗？更别提赢得超级碗了。希望这一天也会到来，不过这对城市来说一定是个有趣的日子。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I had it. Filled with things other than water. Who knows? I had it deep into my closet to find something of Nick's color. Oh, nice. That's the best I could do with my orange and blue eyes. No, I think you did great. You definitely get points for that. What a great moment for the city and Nick's fans over 50 years in waiting. I can just, I'm a lifelong Jets fan as well. Woe is me. Can you imagine what this city would do if the Jets ever even made it to the playoffs? Much less won the Super Bowl. Hopefully that's coming too, but it's going to be a fun day in the city.
是的，而且显然这件事也带来了巨大的经济影响。我看到纽约市经济发展公司首席财务官接受Bloomberg采访时谈到，主场比赛带来了3.82亿美元的经济影响，平均每场总决赛的经济收益约为9000万美元。因为不仅有麦迪逊广场花园的门票销售，还有很多观众在酒吧里消费、购买零食等。因此，这对这座城市来说是巨大收益，对麦迪逊广场花园的股票也是重大利好。我不确定吉姆·多兰是否在纽约人眼中恢复声誉，因为他们和尼克斯队老板的关系相对复杂。不过，这支尼克斯队也确实有很多财务和经济故事可以分享。我只希望庆祝活动能安全且充满乐趣，不会发生损坏或暴力事件，而我们需要用这些资金来修复问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, and also, you know, obviously there is also a huge economic impact. I was watching an interview that the New York City Economic Development Corporation chief, CFO, gave to Bloomberg. And she talked about that $382 million was the economic impact of home games. And it averaged about $90 million per finals game. Because not only do you have, obviously, the ticket sales in the garden, but you have all of the people watching it, spending money in bars, spending money on snacks, etc. And so this is a big boon for the city. It's been a big boon for Madison Square Garden stock. I don't know if Jim Dolan has redeemed himself in the eyes of New Yorkers, but it's a complicated relationship that they have with the Knicks owner. But, you know, so there's just a lot of financial and economic stories to be told with this Knicks team as well. And I just hope that it's a safe and fun celebration and we don't see any damage or any violence where we're going to have to use some of those funds to repair things.
是的，不过每次游行结束后的清理工作确实很重要。说到经济，清理工作量也很大。还需要很多工人成为清理力量。哦，对，就像新年夜一样。趣闻一点，其实现在不是那种纸带游行了。以前我们知道的纸带是那种吐出票价的机器。我们没有纸带了。现在他们会买回收的纸张，把它切碎成五彩纸屑。对，现在是五彩纸屑游行。虽然纸带游行有它独特的庄重感，正好契合这样的重要时刻。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, the cleanup, though, afterwards, after these parades is serious. Talk about economic. I mean, the amount of cleanup that you need to do there as well. You're going to have also workers that are doing all of that cleanup, etc. Oh, yeah, it's like New Year's Eve. Yeah, and fun fact, it's not really a ticker tape parade anymore. The ticker tape was like. Do we have ticker tapes? No, we don't have ticker tape anymore. You know, that was like the actual machine that would spit out the prices, as we all know, being familiar with the ticker tape, we're not, none of us, but we're here, we're in the ticker. But now they actually buy recycled paper and shred it into confetti and then. All right. That's the confetti. It's a confetti parade. It's a confetti parade, but ticker tape has a certain gravitas, doesn't it, that meets the moment of what a big moment this is.
是的，球迷们已经等待这个时刻数十年了，人们聊起他们的爸爸和爷爷。我指的是，这实际上已经是一种家族传承了，像尼克斯队一样。加油，纽约，加油。好的，非常感谢你们两位来到这里。这就是《早间简报》的全部内容。接下来是《开场表演》，Brian Stass 将为大家呈现。下次见。马上回来。下次见。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, fans have been waiting for this for decades, and people talk about their dads and their granddads. I mean, they talk about really the. It's a family legacy kind of thing as well, the Knicks. Go New York, go. All right. Thanks so much, guys. Thank you. Great to have you both here. And that does it for Morning Brief. Opening bit is next. Brian Stass has got you. We'll see you next time. We'll be right back. We'll see you next time. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.
谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢。作为投资者，在前任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，你的日子确实过得不错。他总是提前向大家透露美联储的下一步行动计划，这让你可以更好地做好投资组合的准备。他还经常在临时会议的采访中露面，我们都很喜欢看到他这样做，这同样让你对投资更有准备。而最重要的是，他在一段时间内几乎没有对利率采取任何行动。即便在近期受到伊朗战争引发的通货膨胀影响时，他也倾向于降息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. You, the investor, had it pretty damn good under now former Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. He over communicated the Fed's next moves. That allowed you to be better prepared with your portfolio. He popped up in interim meeting interviews. Love to see Jerome do that. That also allowed you to be better prepared with your portfolio. And most importantly, he didn't do anything really with interest rates for some time. If anything, he leaned on the side of cutting rates, even in the face of the recent battle of Iran war-fueled inflation.
他的新任美联储主席凯文·沃尔什在周三下午向全世界提醒，他将会成为整个美国市场和企业界一个与众不同的角色。沃尔什会减少发言，通过工作小组来审查美联储的所有旧政策，并在近期内坚持美联储的独立性，避免受到支持他的特朗普白宫的影响。这一切都意味着可能会在年底前加息，彻底遏制通货膨胀。在鲍威尔的领导下你可能觉得还不错，但现在局势已经发生变化，也许会持续多年。今天的大型开幕讨论会上，有对美联储的热切分析。参与者包括LPL金融首席技术策略师亚当·特恩奎斯特，以及雅虎财经的布鲁克·德·帕尔马、贾里德·布里克里和詹妮弗·沙姆布格尔。阵容强大。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But his new Fed chair, Kevin Walsh reminded the world on Wednesday afternoon, he will be a different beast for markets and executives throughout corporate America. Walsh will say less, review all old Fed practices via task forces, and in the near term, defend independence from the Trump White House that backed him. All of this can mean an interest rate hike before your end to beat back inflation once and for all. You had it good under Powell, but now the dynamic has changed, maybe for years. Big opening bid roundtable for today with hot takes on the Fed. Adam Turnquist, LPL financial chief technical strategist, alongside Yahoo Finds' Brooke De Palma, Jared Blickery, and Jennifer Scharmburger. Power packed.
我的意思是，我想，你看屏幕上这些图表。让我有点无所适从。杰瑞德，我想先简单问问你。我们看到昨天美联储的消息导致市场下跌。从技术上来看，有损害吗？我不确定是否有损害，但显然市场避险情绪升温。我认为声明中的一些措辞带有鹰派色彩，这让投资者有些措手不及。如果我们能快速切换到Wi-Fi互动界面，我会给你们展示过去两天的价格变动，看一下昨天的市场如何发展。关于市场广度，顺便提一下，我们现在看到的是道琼斯指数的两天走势，我强调一下，当下午2点报告发布时，市场有一个下跌。我已经有很长一段时间没有见到报告发布后有如此大的波动了，所以这一定就是美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）的声明。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mean, I guess, look at all these boxes on the screen. I can't even contain myself. Jared, I want to start with you real quick. We saw the market sell off on yesterday's Fed news. Any damage done technically? I don't know that there was damage done, but it was definitely risk off. I think the hawkishness of some of the statement, how it was pared down, kind of caught investors off guard. If we can go to the Wi-Fi interactive real quickly, I'll just chart the two-day price action and show you how things were developing yesterday. Now, in terms of breadth, and by the way, we're looking at the Dow two-day here, and I'll just highlight, we took a dip down on the 2 p.m. report. I haven't seen that much movement off of the actual report drop in quite a long time, so that would be the FOMC statement.
然后你会看到，当Warsh开始讲话时，一直到当天结束，股票的趋势就是朝着下方和右边走的。在市场广度方面，我给你看看标普500指数，你可以看到今天它已经反弹。所以我们几乎回到了几天前收盘时的水平。但是就市场广度而言，今天标普500指数中有355只股票下跌，而只有145只股票上涨。这是今年表现最差的一次。所以，Barrett，今天在看市场走势时要注意这一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then you can see, as Warsh began talking and through the end of the day, it was just kind of to the down and to the right there. In terms of breadth, and I'm going to show you the S&P 500 here, and you can see it's let back up today. So we're almost to where we were trading just a couple days ago at the close. But in terms of breadth, we had 355 S&P 500 issues trading to the downside versus 145 to the upside. That was the worst this year. So something, Barrett, to kind of keep in mind today as we're looking at the tape.
这次并不是你第一次报道美联储主席的交接。那么，你有什么感想呢？听我说，布莱恩，尽管很多人说沃什是一个“鸽派”，但“江山易改，本性难移”。沃什依然是我们在联邦公开市场委员会会议记录和他作为美联储理事时的演讲中看到的那个关注价格稳定的沃什，这为他赢得了可信度。委员会非常明确地指出，他们认为通货膨胀要到2028年才会回到2%的目标。而事实上，通胀率已经超过他们2%的目标超过五年了。这意味着要等八年才能看到通胀回到2%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Jen, this wasn't your first rodeo covering a Fed chair transition. What are some of your takeaways from this? Listen, Brian, for all the talk that Warsh was a dove, a leopard doesn't change his spots. And Warsh was the same Warsh that we've seen in transcripts of FOMC meetings and speeches that he gave when he was a Fed governor focused on price stability, which earned him credibility. And the committee very clearly laid out that they don't see inflation returning to their 2 percent goal until 2028. Inflation has been running above their 2 percent target for more than five years. That would be eight years until we see inflation return to 2 percent.
Warsh 很明确地表示，在价格稳定方面我们还有工作要做。他几乎完全专注于这一使命。因此，市场对今年秋季加息的预期在增加。9月可能会有动作，10月的可能性更大。我认为这意味着市场将更加关注通胀报告。你们看屏幕上的那些点，差不多就是 Space Essex 的股票代码。我是说，那些点就像是给你这样的感觉。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And Warsh very clearly said we have work to do when it comes to price stability. He was almost single mandate focused. And so you're seeing bets for rate hikes rise for this fall. September could be in play. October perhaps more so. And I think this means that inflation reports are going to take on that much more attention for markets. You look at those dots on the screen enough, guys. I think it's Space Essex's stock symbol. I mean, that's what those dots do to you.
詹，很快说一下，让我感到意外的是，听到沃什对美国公众说，我们无法降低鸡肉价格，这很有趣。同样有趣的是，沃什没有坚持使用前瞻性指引，却为委员会其他成员发言。这让我感到惊讶，因为他决定不参加利率预期图（Daplot）或经济预测总结（SEP），而委员会的其他18名成员都参加了。因此，虽然沃什不打算参与前瞻性指引并减少发言频率，我想知道我们是否能够从委员会其他成员那里获得更多关于他们行动和发言频率的见解。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Jen, real quick, what took me by surprise, it was just very interesting to hear Warsh tell the American public, look, we can't bring down your chicken prices. Listen, that was interesting as well. I think that, you know, the fact that Warsh is not sticking to forward guidance but did speak for the rest of the committee was interesting to me because he decided not to participate in the Daplot or the SEP, but the rest of the 18 members of the committee did. And so while Warsh is not going to engage in forward guidance and speak less frequently, I wonder if we will be able to look to the rest of the committee for more insight into what they will do and how frequently they will speak.
在禁言期之前，我问了纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯，他是否打算改变他与外界沟通的频率，他说不会。所以，很有趣的是，我们要看看区域联储主席、其他美联储董事会成员和凯文·沃什之间是否会有分歧。哦，我真是太喜欢美联储成员之间的紧张关系了。真的很喜欢，詹，我特别渴望这些。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And I asked New York Fed President John Williams before the blackout period if he intends to change the frequency with which he communicates, and he said no. So it's going to be interesting to see if we see any dichotomy here between the regional Fed heads, the rest of the Federal Reserve Board, and Kevin Warsh. Oh, I love me some Fed member tension. Love it, Jen. I just crave this stuff.
布鲁克，你在债券市场上看到了什么反应？嗯，债券市场确实受到了惊吓。就像詹提到的，在这次会议之前，我们原以为凯文·沃什可能会采取比较鸽派的态度。这主要是因为他曾提到人工智能能提升生产力等因素。但实际上，他却表现得更为鹰派，所以我们看到了债券市场的反应，正如你在屏幕上所看到的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Brooke, what did you see in the bond markets off of this? Well, the bond market was definitely spooked. It's like Jen had noted heading into this meeting, we expected that maybe, perhaps, Kevin Warsh would go with a more dovish tone. But coming in, or dovish tone, it's largely because of the fact that he truly did believe, as he mentioned, about AI boosting productivity and so on. But instead, because he was more hawkish, we did see a reaction, as you can see on your screen, within the bond market.
当我们特别关注两年期国债收益率时，看到的市场反应可以说是自去年“解放日”以来最大的一次。此外，面对美联储会议的结果，我们也看到了自2008年以来未曾见过的市场反应（虽不必过于恐慌，但这是事实）。这确实显示出美联储政策短期影响的一些动静。同时，10年期国债的收益率也有所波动，上升了超过7个基点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When you take a look particularly at the two-year Treasury yields, we saw some of the biggest reactions that we've seen since Liberation Day of last year. And then on top of that, too, in reaction to a Fed meeting, we haven't seen that sort of reaction since, don't get too scared here, but since 2008. And so definitely some reaction there when you think about the short-term impact of the Federal Reserve's policy. We also did get some movement on the 10-year T-note as well. That rose more than seven basis points.
但我认为，真正的核心问题是我们到底多久能看到加息？现在，我们有不同的看法，有人认为可能是在7月、9月、10月，或者等到12月，当战争结束，这种连锁反应完全显现出来。Brooke，我现在很害怕。我在来参加这个节目之前就已经害怕了，因为我得在尼克斯队游行正中间的时候去宾州车站。我已经担心会被踩踏，非常忧虑这个问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I think that really the big question here is how soon could we see that rate hike? And now we sort of have these different takes about just how soon that could be, whether it's July, September, October, or wait out until December for this war to really come to a close and for that ripple effect to really bleed through fully. Brooke, I am scared now. And I was already scared coming to the show because I have to go to Penn Station right in the middle of this Knicks parade. I'm already scared about getting – look, I'm getting trampled. Like, I'm really concerned about it.
亚当，谈到被踩踏——不要害怕。不要害怕。不，我有点害怕。我有点害怕。说到被踩踏，这正是昨天在Warsh会议之后市场所发生的情况。他在这次美联储事件前，对市场的看好情绪造成了多大干扰？在短期内，确实造成了一些损害。标普500指数在其大约74,88的20日移动平均线上承压。因此，今天早上要注意期货上涨时的这个水平。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Adam, speaking of getting trampled – Don't be scared. Don't be scared. No, I'm a little scared. I'm a little scared. Speaking of getting trampled, that's what happened to the markets yesterday after this Warsh meeting. How much did he disrupt the bullish narrative in the markets leading up to this Fed event? On a short-term basis, there was a little damage. The S&P 500 failed at its 20-day moving average right around 74, 88. So keep an eye on that level this morning with futures higher.
从长远来看，市场已经适应了从降息到加息的转变。自三月份以来，我们已经在两年期收益率上看到了这种变化。它们已经扭转了下行趋势，突破了200天线和美联储的目标利率。这实际上是我们应该预期关于加息而非降息讨论的第一个信号。最近的点阵图变化也证实了这一点。我认为昨天的真正亮点是，当我们从三月和九月的经济预测摘要中没有预期的加息，到现在有一半的成员实际上预测至少会有一次加息。我认为有六位成员预计今年会加息两次。所以，现在的叙事大不相同。我会说，市场对此吸收得相当不错，牛市依然强劲。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But long-term, the market's already in tune with this shift from rate cuts to rate hikes. And we've seen that play out in two-year yields really since March. They've reversed the downtrend, broke out above the 200-day and the Fed fund's target rate. And that was really the first signal that we should be expecting a conversation about rate hikes versus rate cuts. And, of course, we're getting confirmation of that with the recent dot plot changes. And I think that was the real fireworks yesterday when we went from no penciled-in rate hikes in the March, September, summary of economic projections to now half the members actually forecasting at least one. I think there were six members that priced in two rate hikes this year. So a much different narrative. I'd say the market absorbed it pretty well. Still on a bull market, very much so.
我确实认为，特别是在我们处理与伊朗的这项60天和平协议时，今年夏天可能会有一些波动。我的意思是，在鲍威尔的领导下，甚至可以追溯到珍妮特·耶伦管理美联储时，投资者已经习惯于“逢低买入”。这种策略是否仍然有效？我认为是的，直到这种策略被打破为止。这就是目前的情况。散户在3月份的低点时进入稍显迟缓，但他们现在已经积极参与，买入个股，追逐像SpaceX这样的首次公开募股（IPO）。市场活力依然旺盛，那种“逢低买入”的本能反应现在似乎依然有效。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But I do think there could be some turbulence here this summer, especially as we work through this 60-day peace deal with Iran. I mean, how much investors under Powell, and I'll even go back to Janet Yellen when she was running the Fed ship, have been conditioned to buy the dip. Is that still likely to stay in play? I think so until it's broken. And that's been the scenario. Retail was a little bit slow getting into this latest dip on the March lows. But they're very much back in action in buying single stocks. They're chasing IPOs like SpaceX. So animal spirits are alive and well. And that buy the dip, Freudian response certainly seems to be in play right now.
Jared，有很多事情让我对这次Warsh的第一次美联储价格会议感到不安。最让我感到不安的是，我意识到我们可能将面临更高的资本成本。这种情况发生在主要的大型云服务厂商，像我在心中称呼的Yahoo Finance Fab 10指数中的成员，以及Anthropic和OpenAI等公司纷纷举债的时期。他们在过去一年中享受了低息贷款的好处。这种动态可能会改变。即使是SpaceX，这也可能对许多科技公司造成很大的不利影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Jared, a lot of things, I would say several things bothered me from this Warsh first Fed Price conference. But out of everything, I came away thinking, Jared, we are looking at a potential higher cost of capital. And this comes at a time where the major hyperscalers, members of the Yahoo Finance Fab 10 index, as I'm internally calling in my head, Anthropic OpenAid. They're raising a ton of debt, Jared. And they have expected easy money or they've feasted off easy money for the past year. That dynamic could change. Even for SpaceX, and that could be a big headwind to a lot of these tech companies.
好的，这里有几点需要注意。我会关注长期利率。我将在Wi-Fi互动系统上给你展示10年期利率的年初至今图表。实际上，我把它调到30年期图表上来展示，因为我认为这个是最重要的。5%是一个很重要的分界线。你可以看到，我们在5月中旬突破了这个水平。我认为这并不是巧合，因为我们在那时看到股票市场出现了一些问题。如果我给你看一个三年的图表，我们曾多次突破5%的水平。我会把这些都圈出来。每一次突破都是股票市场的绊脚石，不过每次都很短暂，因为我们很快又回到了5%以下。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, a few things to note there. And I would look at longer term interest rates. And I'll show you a year-to-date chart of the 10-year on the Wi-Fi interactive. And actually, let me bump this up to a 30-year. Because this is really the one where the levels, I think, matter the most. So 5% is kind of a big line in the sand. And you can see we broke above that in mid-May. And I don't think it's coincidence that we saw some problems with stocks there. If I show you a three-year chart, we've been above 5% a few times. I'm going to circle all of these. All of these were stumbling blocks for stocks. And it was short-lived because we came back down below that 5% level pretty quickly.
通常在债券市场，关键不在于利率水平，而在于变动的速度。不过我担心的是，如果美联储无法控制收益率曲线的长期部分（这是他们目前未直接控制的方面），这将增加资本成本，同时也增加美国政府的资本成本。当收益率超过5%、5.1%、5.2%时，问题就更加严重。然而，目前我们最近看到收益率在下降，现在是4.88%。我并不认为可以完全放松警惕，但看起来昨天市场对美联储新任主席沃什的反应显然导致了收益率的下降，我认为这是个好消息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And usually in bonds, it's not about the levels. It's about the speed of the move. But my concern is that if the Fed loses control of the long end of the yield curve, which is something they're not directly trying to control right now, that does raise the cost of capital. And it also raises the cost of capital for the United States government. So above 5%, 5.1%, 5.2%, you really have problems. But I would say right now, we've been coming down recently. We're at 4.88%. And I'm not going to give the all clear here. But it looks like that reaction yesterday to Fed Chair Warsh, the new chair, was definitely to the downside in yields by the end of the day. So I think that's actually a good thing.
亚当，你还喜欢MAG-7吗？这项交易是不是已经无望了？我不会说无望，但肯定面临一些进一步的抛售压力。当你看到科技板块整体的超买状态时，我们不久前达到了自2000年3月以来与200日移动平均线的最高溢价水平，并打破了这种抛物线式的上升趋势。我对在这种抛物线趋势中断后的首次回调持谨慎态度，因为这通常会导致进一步的下跌。技术分析师的经验法则通常是你会回撤大约50%的这种抛物线上涨，这意味着可能还有一些下行空间。你看动量指标，与价格走势有些背离，说明买家的一些热情有些削弱。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Adam, are you still like the MAG-7? Is this trade dead in the water? I wouldn't say dead in the water, but certainly subject to some further selling pressure. When you look at just how overbought the tech sector is broadly, we were at the highest premium to the 200-day moving average since March of 2000, not long ago. And we violated this parabolic uptrend. I'm leery of buying the first dip after a break of a parabolic uptrend. You tend to get further drawdowns. The rule of thumb among technicians is usually you retrace about 50% of that parabolic move, which would suggest there's some additional downside. You look at the momentum indicators as well diverging a little bit with price action, suggesting some of the buyer enthusiasm is fading a little bit.
现在，这些信号是短期的，并不是说科技行业或MAG-7交易已经结束。但我确实认为这里可能会有进一步的回调。稍微转个小弯。新一期的播客发布了，这期嘉宾是Coinbase的联合创始人兼CEO Brian Armstrong。本周早些时候，他表示他认为比特币已经触底。他告诉我，如果你只看过去的趋势，我希望，我认为我们在大约6万美元处触底。但是，你知道，很多因素可能会推动比特币的增长。我认为市场结构和立法的通过，以及一些AI公司上市会有所影响，因为它们一直占用了大量的风险资本。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, these are near-term signals, not making the call that the tech sector or the MAG-7 trade is over. But I do think subject to some further drawdowns here. Small right turn here. A new episode of my podcast dropped with Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong. He said earlier in the week he thinks Bitcoin has bottomed. Here's what he told me. If you just look at the past trends in Bitcoin, I hope, I think we've bottomed at 60K or so. But, you know, like a lot of things could drive growth of Bitcoin here. I think market structure, legislation passing. I think some of these AI companies going public because they've been soaking up a lot of the risk capital.
一旦这些公司上市并解禁，我认为你会看到资金开始重新流动。杰恩，我确信你也看到了摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙和布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗之间关于所有"Clarity"项目的争论。当前这项立法的状况如何？我看到他们在较劲。我认为银行游说团体希望，虽然他们无法通过参议院银行委员会的支持来获得对银行有利的结果，但他们打算在全体投票之前，试图说服关键的参议员。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So once these companies get public and the unlocks happen, like I think you'll start to see capital move back around. And Jen, I'm sure you've seen the back and forth between JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon and Brian Armstrong on all things Clarity. Where does that legislation even stand at this point? I see some arm wrestling on that. I think that the banking lobby is hoping that while they couldn't get through to the Senate Banking Committee to get it in favor for the banks, they're going to try to target key senators before a floor vote.
所以我认为，在这项立法被整理好并正式通过之前，我们还有一些时间。不过，我想简要回到你刚才关于科技公司和利率上升的问题。我们需要认识到，目前确实存在通货膨胀的问题。但如果与伊朗达成的协议能够持续，那么整体通胀正在达到顶峰，今年晚些时候将会开始下降。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I think we do have some time before we see this legislation sorted through and officially passed. But I do want to go back to what you were saying very briefly about tech companies and rising rates. I think we need to put into perspective that, yes, we have an inflation problem right now. But if the deal with Iran holds and headline inflation, inflation is in the process of peaking right now and is going to start to come down later this year.
我想知道你是否认为美联储会加息。如果他们确实在今年晚些时候加息，我想我们可能在讨论一两次加息，而不是像几年前那样的自1980年代以来最激进的加息周期。这些都是坚实的科技公司，能够获得不错的借款条件。而且我们还要记住，大型优惠法案允许他们立即扣除费用，这在一定程度上可以抵消较高的借款成本。所以，我在想这是否真的会成为一个问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I wonder if you even see the Fed hike rates at all. If they do hike it, you know, later this year, I think we're talking about maybe one or two hikes. We're not talking about what we saw a couple years back, which was the most aggressive rate hiking cycle since the 1980s. So these are stalwart tech companies that are able to get good borrowing terms. And let's also remember that the big, beautiful bill allows them to expense immediately. So that help offsets some of these higher borrowing costs. I wonder if this is going to be a real problem.
嘿，Jen，谢谢你在危难时刻开导我。你知道，我确实希望在未来25年内拥有一套自己的房子。所以，我很感激你的看法，以及在这个大型OB圆桌会议上大家给出的所有见解。谢谢大家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hey, thanks for talking to me off a ledge, Jen. You know, I do hope to own a home sometime within the next 25 years. So I appreciate that perspective and all the perspective on this big OB roundtable. Thanks, all.
好的，直截了当。这周在Robinhood出现的大规模裁员提醒我们，人工智能即将带来的影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, straight ahead. Big layoffs this week at Robinhood is a reminder as to what's coming at the hands of AI.
我正在和一位很早就警告人工智能导致失业的人一起直播。他就是杨安泽。稍后即将播出。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I am live with one of the people that was way early to warn about AI-related job loss. That is Andrew Yang. That's next.
下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见，下次见。再见。感谢你们，感谢你们，感谢你们，感谢你们。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. Bye. Bye. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
科技公司今年已经裁员了10万人。高盛指出，目前每月大约有16,000个美国职位因人工智能的推动而消失。随着通用人工智能技术从数据中心进入办公室，这一数字只会加速增长。企业家兼前总统候选人杨安泽与我在雅虎财经总部见面。很高兴见到你。我在X平台上关注你。终于可以亲自见到你，太好了。是的，我是真实存在的，是一个实实在在的人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Tech companies have already cut 100,000 jobs this year alone, and Goldman Sachs puts the current pace of AI-driven job displacement. Roughly 16,000 American positions lost every single month. That number is only going to accelerate as the Gentic AI moves from the data center into the office. Entrepreneur and former presidential candidate, Andrew Yang, is here with me at Yahoo Finance HQ. It's good to see you. I follow you on X. It's good to see you in person, finally. Yes, I'm real. Yes. Yeah, like he's real. He's like a real guy.
是的，你看，我记得，就像昨天一样清晰，当时你在2020年警告过人工智能的风险。那时，几乎没有人知道人工智能到底是什么。对于我们现在看到的就业岗位流失情况，我们是还在冰山一角，还是已经深入冰山之中？哦，是的，我们只是处于最初的阶段。一位上市公司CEO联系过我，请我吃早餐，并说他计划解雇30%的员工，而他的收入会增加200%，他自己也会加薪。我们应该怎么办？所以这些才仅仅是开始。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yes. Look, I remember, it feels like yesterday when you warned about AI at the time. It was in 2020. Nobody even knew what the hell AI was. What we're seeing right now in terms of job loss, are we still at the tip of the iceberg or like we are in the middle of the iceberg? Oh, yeah, we're just in the first or second inning, and a public company CEO reached out to me, bought me breakfast, and said, I'm going to fire 30% of my workforce, and my revenue is going to go up 200%, and I'm going to get a raise. What do we do? And so these are the very early days.
看，对于科技公司裁员这件事，是否有些混淆不清的地方？比如，他们是否招聘过多，现在又用人工智能作为某种借口或理由？是的，但人工智能的影响是真实存在的。如果一家公司替换或解雇，比如说超过一万名员工，就像我们现在看到的情况，那他们应该对社会承担什么责任？严酷的事实是，公司的目的并不是为了雇佣大量员工。在一代人之前，如果我作为一个CEO说，我雇佣了很多人，那是一种荣誉的象征。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Look, was there some muddying of the water in terms of the tech layoffs? Like, did they overhire, and then are they using AI as something of a justification or rationale? Yes, but the AI buzzsaw is real. What, if a company replaces or releases or fires, however you want to say, 10,000 plus workers, which is what we have been seeing, what do they owe society? So this is the harsh truth, is that the purpose of a corporation is not to employ lots of people. And it used to be a generation ago, if I was a CEO and said, hey, I employ a lot of people, that's a badge of honor.
好的。现在这句话的意思是你变成了一个傻瓜，你已经落后于形势。就像在问，你究竟做错了什么？是的，所以公司存在的目的是尽可能高效地提供产品或服务。我并不是那种狂热追求股东价值最大化的人，但CEO确实没有责任去雇佣很多人。因此，这也是我参选总统的原因。政府应该负责帮助管理这种转型。但在我看来，我们的政府对此视而不见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Now it means you're a schmuck. You're out of the curve. It's like, what are you doing wrong? Yes. And so the purpose of the corporation is to deliver its product or service as cost-efficiently as possible. I'm not like a cult of shareholder value maximization guy, but it is certainly not the CEO's responsibility to hire and employ a lot of people. And so this is why I ran for president. It's the government's responsibility to help manage this transition. But our government, in my opinion, is asleep at the switch.
这使得全民基本收入的概念处于什么位置呢？这一概念正变得越来越主流和普遍。当我在2020年参选总统时，很遗憾我没有成功。但是当时全民基本收入的支持率在30%左右。现在，这个支持率已经上升到60%到70%之间，因为人们理解了这一概念。他们看到了政府可以快速和广泛地发放刺激支票，而且确实有效。这种措施确实有帮助。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Where does this all leave, this concept of universal basic income? It's becoming increasingly mainstream and common. When I ran for president in 2020, you know, shame I didn't prevail. But the approval rating- I thought you were going to. I thought you were going to. No BS, seriously. So universal basic income's approval rating at that time was in the 30s. Now it's in the mid to high 60s because people get it. And they saw that government can actually send out stimulus checks quickly and broadly. And it works. It helps.
在这个人工智能浪潮即将来临之际，美国的劳动者应该怎么做呢？他们应该努力熟悉并精通这些工具。马克·库班指出，许多中小型企业将需要人来帮助实施和部署这些技术。我对此表示赞同。但另一方面，你需要意识到，如果一个办公室或隔间里有很多和你做同样工作的人，你的工作可能会岌岌可危。我认识的很多业内人士都说，他们能看出公司正在训练人工智能来取代自己，他们实际上是在培训自己的接班人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
What should the American worker do at this point with this AI tidal wave coming at them? They should try and become conversant and expert in these tools. Mark Cuban makes the case that a bunch of small and medium-sized businesses are going to need folks to help implement and deploy. I agree with that. But it's to know that your jobs days might be numbered if there are a bunch of you in an office or cubicle. And a lot of folks I know who are in the industry say, I can tell they're training the AI to replace me. I'm training my own replacement.
这不就是，我的意思是，激励机制的问题吗？你看，上市公司的CEO们，他们必须最大化股东的利益。现在不是他们更有理由解雇尽可能多的人吗？是的。如果他们不这么做，他们可能会失去自己的职位。而且，他们都很清楚这一点。我是说，你会看到很多CEO在离职的时候承认，他们这样做的其中一个原因是因为AI，而他们自己也不太明白AI。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Is it the, I mean, the incentive, look, CEOs of public companies, they have to maximize shareholder value. Isn't that, isn't there's more incentive for them to now fire as many people as possible? Yeah. And they're going to lose their own job if they don't do so. And they all know it. I mean, you see multiple CEOs stepping aside and then on the way out, they're like, hey, one of the reasons I'm doing this is because of AI. And I'm not sure I fully understand it.
翻译如下：
其实，我并不想这样做。他们也不想成为这件事情的代言人。我不愿意去裁掉我30%的员工。这种做法很痛苦。所以，我决定退位，把这个艰难的任务交给下一任。而一旦这样的消息发布，公开市场立刻给出正面回应：比如我们裁掉了一万名员工，然后我们的股票就上涨了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And parentheses, I didn't want to. They don't want to be the face of this crap. I didn't want to chop, chop, chop, you know, 30% of my workforce. It's miserable. So I'm going to step aside and let the next person do it. And the public markets reward you as soon as you make the announcements. Like we cut 10,000 workers and then our stock pops.
你打算在2028年再次参选吗？我每天都被问到这个问题，布莱恩。我可以说，我的情况一直都不错。你已经取得了很多成就，真的。哦，非常感谢。你知道，我还在这里，并且愿意继续为大家服务。所以我们要看看2028年会怎样。假如安德鲁·杨当上总统会做些什么呢？你知道，到2028年，人工智能将变得更为强大。你会对人工智能征税吗？会的，而且不仅仅是我这么说，达里奥·阿马代也提到过“代币税”，萨姆·阿尔特曼也说过“国家财富基金”。让人工智能与电力相提并论，却不对其征税和监管，这是毫无道理的。你能想象如果电网不受监管，那将多么疯狂吗？这只是政府没有跟上时代的一个例子。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Are you running again in 2028? I get asked every day, Brian. And I will say my case has aged very well. You got a lot. I mean, you have a lot of Ws on the board, man. Oh, well, thank you. You know, I'm still very much here and willing to serve. And so we'll have to see what 2028 holds. What would President Andrew Yang do? You know, in 2028, AI is even more powerful. Would you tax AI? Yes. And that's not just me saying it. That's Dario Amadei saying token tax. It's Sam Altman saying National Wealth Fund. It makes zero sense that you'd have AI, which compares itself to electricity, and then not tax it and not regulate it. Can you imagine if the power grid was unregulated and that would be insane? So that's just, again, an example of our government not being on the curve.
所以，不要对员工征税。我们应该对人工智能公司征税。我经营一家名为Noble Mobile的公司，我们在招聘方面面临困难，因为我们需要为员工支付医疗保险和社会保障税。然后员工还需要缴纳大量的所得税。 有些人，比如Vinod Khosla，认为我们应该停止对招聘和人力劳作设置不利条件，我完全同意这个观点。现在，如果我使用机器人，就不需要缴税，人工智能公司也不用缴税。但是如果我雇用你，我要支付预算税，你也要缴税。这种情况看起来不太合理。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So don't tax employees, per se. We've got to tax AI companies. Yes. I run a company, Noble Mobile, and we are discouraged from hiring because we have to pay for your health care. We have to pay for your Social Security tax. Then you're going to pay, like, a ton of income tax. There are a number of people like Vinod Khosla and others who are saying we should stop trying to disadvantage hiring and human labor, and I totally agree with that. Right now, if I use the bots, I'd pay zero in taxes, and the AI company pays zero in taxes. And then if I hire you, then I pay a budget tax, and so do you. Seems black.
这是2019年。当时你确实得到了埃隆·马斯克的支持。我觉得我们展示过这些，我们找到了他的推文，所以我很高兴这些内容仍然存在。你怎么评价他从那时以来财富的增长？我记得那时他的财富大约是200亿美元。现在他成为了我们的首位万亿富翁。是的，他确实在创造很多价值，并且支持全民高收入，因为他认为人工智能和机器人将会带来巨大的发展，并完成很多工作。所以，埃隆不仅仅是走在趋势的前沿，他实际上是在创造这个趋势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It was 2019. You actually got an endorsement from Elon Musk. I think we showed, we got the tweets. I went and found them, so I'm glad they still exist out there. What do you think about, there it is, what do you think about the increase in his wealth since then? I think at the time he was worth $20 billion. Now he's our first trillionaire. Yeah, you know, he's creating a lot of value, and he's for universal high income because he thinks that AI and robots are going to create so much growth and do a lot of the work. So Elon's not just been ahead of the curve, he's been making the curve happen.
如果你真的参选了，你还会接受他的支持吗？是的，我会的。因为他在推动社会进步方面做出了努力。虽然我并不完全认同他的每一个观点，但谁会在所有事情上都和别人完全一样呢？我非常乐意接受Elon的支持。其次，我猜这方面你可能也有看法，昨天晚上有个消息传出，加州提议对亿万富翁征收财富税的提案已经收集到了足够的签名，将在11月投票表决。你对此有什么看法？我认为在州一级征收财富税是个错误。人是可以移动的，资本也是可以移动的，认为他们搬不了去奥斯汀是愚蠢的。毕竟，亿万富翁都有自己的飞机。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Would you still accept an endorsement from him if you did run it? Yeah, I would. I mean, shoot, he's for trying to advance society in different ways. Don't agree with him on every single thing, but who the heck agrees with someone on everything, would gladly accept Elon's support. One, and I suspect you have a take on this, and this news crossed late yesterday. Proposal to tax the wealth of billionaires in California has got enough signatures to appear in the November ballot. What do you think about that? I think wealth taxes on the state level are a mistake. People are portable, the capital is portable, and imagining that they can't move to Austin is dumb. I mean, billionaires have things called planes.
他们还有会计师和其他东西。因此，对我来说，目标应该是努力从人工智能和机器人中获取价值，而不是通过州级财富税。我真的开始思考，加州会怎样呢？看看所有的——我是说，你在科技领域，你了解这个行业。如果一些最具创新力的首席执行官和公司搬出加州，会发生什么？你已经在西雅图看到这种情况。一些人因为看到某些立法的前景而离开了加州。所以，不幸的是，加州可能会如你所描述的那样，不仅在假设中，而是在现实生活中，展示这些后果。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
They also have accountants and other things. So, you know, to me the goal should be to try and get the value from AI, from the bots, but a state level wealth tax isn't the way to go. I was really—it got me thinking, like, what would happen to California? Like, look at all the—I mean, you are in tech. You understand this space. Like, what would happen to California if, like, some of the most innovative CEOs and companies move out of that state? You're already seeing that happen in Seattle. Some people departed and California because they see the writing on the wall with some of this legislation. So, unfortunately, California might, like, be able to illustrate what you're describing, not in the hypothetical, but in real life.
最后，我知道你对加密货币很有研究。加密货币确实曾经风靡一时。你认为加密货币的未来会怎样？我支持可以在一个社区内保持价值的本地化货币。对我来说，我觉得，加密货币的一个问题在于其主要用途是金融投机，而这并不是我对这一领域产生兴趣的原因。我关注的是通过货币的使用来缓解贫困和推动创新。我依然坚定地相信本地化货币，甚至支持那些能够奖励健康和福祉、艺术和创意、关怀和照料的货币。我认为，这才是加密货币应该支持的发展方向。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Lastly, I know you're a big crypto guy. Crypto has really had its moment. Where do you see the future for crypto? I'm for localized currencies that can keep value in a community. To me, I will say, one of my issues with crypto has been that the primary use case has been financial speculation, and that's not what attracted me to the space. It was around poverty alleviation and innovation in the way that we use currencies. I'm still a big believer in localized currencies and even currencies that reward things like health and wellness, arts and creativity, nurturing and caretaking. Like, that's the vision that I think crypto should get behind.
最后，我的意思是，告诉我们这本新书吧。你读过它。我需要从中了解什么呢？是的，《嘿，杨，我的一千块呢？》这是我在纽约街头得到的书。另一个标题是《嘿，我是种族主义者还是你是，杨安泽？》这真的能吸引注意力。是的，我应该用这个标题。不过，这本书包括一些竞选旅途中的有趣故事，也希望能够找到一条前进的道路。见到你真好。很久不见了。感谢你来参加这个节目。我一定会回来的。谢谢你。好的，注意安全。我的“权力玩家”播客的大一期节目将在周一早上6点发布。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Lastly, I mean, tell us about this new book. You read this. What do I need to know from it? Yes, Hey, Yang, Where's My Thousand Bucks?, which I've gotten on the streets of New York. The alternate title was, Hey, Am I Racist or Are You Andrew Yang? That'll get your attention. Yeah, I mean, I should use that one. But it's fun stories from the trail. And, like, hopefully, a path forward. Good to see you. It's been a while. I appreciate you doing this. I'll be back for sure, man. Yeah, thank you. All right, date safe. Big episode of my Power Players podcast dropping Monday at 6 a.m.
我与币安的创始人赵长鹏（在加密圈内更广为人知的名字是CZ）进行了一对一的对话。我们谈到了他被拘留的经历，CZ在那里发表了一些非常有趣的观点。此外，我们还讨论了最近的加密寒冬以及他计划如何度过未来十年的人生。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I go one-on-one with the founder of Binance, Changpeng Zhao, better known as CZ in crypto circles. We talked about his time in jail. Very interesting comments there from CZ. The latest crypto winter and how he plans to spend the next decade of his life.
你可以在 Yahoo Finance、YouTube、Roku 和三星电视上观看完整的一集节目。或者，你可以在 Apple Music、Amazon Music 和 Spotify 上收听。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You can watch a full episode on Yahoo Finance, YouTube, Roku, and Samsung TV. Or listen in on Apple Music, Amazon Music, and Spotify.
朱莉·海曼接下来会和大家见面。我是马克·卡维尔。那我们下次再见吧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Julie Hyman has you next. I'm Mark Cavill. And, like, I'll see you next time.
下次再见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time.
我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time. We'll see you next time.
翻译如下：
我是朱莉·海曼，现在是美国交易日的30分钟，这周是一个假期缩短的交易周。提醒一下，我们明天暂停交易。现在来看看今天主要股指的表现。昨天，在凯文·沃什作为美联储主席的首次新闻发布会后，市场显然出现了下跌。在那个新闻发布会上，他并没有提供太多信息，但市场认为美联储倾向于采取鹰派政策，尤其是由于经济预测摘要显示年内可能会加息或保持不变的意见分歧。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'm Julie Hyman, 30 minutes into the U.S. trading day on what is a holiday short week. Reminder, we are closed for trading tomorrow. But let's take a look at what's going on with the major averages here today. So we had, obviously, a drop yesterday after Kevin Warsh's first press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve, a press conference in which he didn't give much information, but the market took away a hawkish tilt from the Fed, especially given the summary of economic projections was split between hikes and no change. Before the end of the year.
尽管如此，今天我们的市场出现了复苏，部分原因似乎是美伊之间敌对行动暂停的消息得到了证实，尽管还不算是永久停火。目前，道琼斯指数上涨了约260点，大约涨了0.5%。标准普尔指数上涨了大约0.8%。而纳斯达克综合指数则上涨了大约0.9%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All of that said, we are recovering today in part on what seems like confirmation of a cessation, if not a permanent halt to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. So right now we've got the Dow up about 260 points or so, about a half of 1 percent. The S&P up about eight-tenths of 1 percent. And the Nasdaq composite up about nine-tenths of 1 percent.
我们继续密切关注债券收益率。我们看到，10年期债券收益率变化不大，略低于昨天的上涨，但仍然远低于4.5%。30年期债券的情况类似，目前为4.87%。查看原油期货，特别是西德克萨斯中质油（WTI），我们注意到价格再次下降，这是因为人们希望通过霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油量开始增加，这样最近一直出现的价格飙升现象会减少。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We continue to watch bond yields carefully here. As we see, the 10-year little changed, a little bit lower after a move higher yesterday, but still below 4.5 percent by a pretty good margin. And the 30-year similar story there, it is now at 4.87 percent. Checking on crude oil futures here, taking a look at WTI in particular, we see that drop there again on the hopes that we will start to see oil flowing in more volume through the Strait of Hormuz and that we will start to see fewer price spikes like we've been seeing as of late.
今天股市的具体情况来看，能源股持续下跌。它们今年本来表现不错，但近期却逐渐下滑。同时，周期性板块表现良好。科技股重新占据主导地位，上涨了2.2%。工业股也上涨了1.2%。其他板块的表现基本和今天整体市场走势一致。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Looking at more detail in what's going on in the stock market here today, energy stocks continue to lose ground. They had been one of the best performers this year, but we've been seeing that chipped away at. And then we see the cyclical groups do well. Tech back in the driver's seat up by 2.2 percent. Industrials up by 1.2 percent. Everything else is sort of in line with the overall market move today.
特别关注纳斯达克市场，我们看到芯片行业表现强劲。博通的股价又上涨了，英伟达的股票也有所上升。其他领域的情况则有些复杂。我们之前提到，在特朗普总统在社交媒体上发布信息称，英特尔将与苹果合作后，英特尔的股价上升。英特尔同意为像英伟达这样的其他公司制造芯片。虽然这些公司本身对合作细节没有多加说明，但总统的评论推动了股价上涨。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Looking at the Nasdaq in particular, we see some strength in chips. Broadcom up again. NVIDIA shares are higher as well. Kind of a mixed picture elsewhere. We talked earlier about Intel rising after President Trump posted on social media that Intel's latest partner will be Apple after it agreed to manufacture chips for other companies like NVIDIA. The companies themselves have not talked much about what the details of this would be, but the shares are rising on the president's comment there.
我提到了半导体。我之所以想谈这个，是因为我们看到半导体行业范围广泛的上涨。这可能是因为英特尔，也可能是因为市场整体的风险偏好情绪上升，推动了这个一直很热门的行业。从整体来看，可能是后者的影响更大。同时，我还想了解一下本周我们一直在关注的SpaceX股票的情况。这里是今天的SpaceX情况。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I mentioned semiconductors. Wanted to get to that because we are seeing a pretty broad rally within the semiconductors, whether it is as a result of Intel or just a result of more sort of risk-on sentiment, benefiting what has been a very hot sector, probably more in the latter camp than in the former. And also wanted to check on, as we have been all week, what's going on with shares of SpaceX. So here's SpaceX today.
这只股票目前下跌了6%。不过，如果从首次公开募股（IPO）以来的表现来看，显然上涨了很多。股票最初以135美元定价，上市后首次交易时为150美元。过去几天里，股价大多是上涨的，但最近几天市场热情有所下降。我们会继续观察这只股票，并关注其他即将上市的IPO。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The stock is off by 6 percent here. And if you stretch it on out to how it's done since the IPO, obviously you've seen a big lift. The shares first started trading at 150 after pricing at 135. And we've had mostly upward movement over the past few days, although over the past couple of days, a little bit less enthusiasm within the market. But we'll continue to watch that and track the other IPOs as they come to market.
回到昨天的联邦储备委员会和凯文·沃什的第一次会议。沃什有一个简单的请求，就是希望市场直接关注数据本身，而不是根据数据来猜测美联储将会怎么做。这是不是说起来容易做起来难呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Getting back to the Federal Reserve and Kevin Warsh's first meeting yesterday. Warsh, he has a simple request for the market. He basically seems to say, pay attention not to what you think the Fed is going to do as a result of data as it comes out, but just trade off the data itself. Is that easier said than done?
让我们来了解一下。Seema Shah 现在加入我们，她是Principal资产管理公司的首席全球策略师。Seema，你怎么看？我的意思是，在现代这个美联储时代，市场已经这样运作了很长一段时间，我们收到很多美联储的沟通信息，然后市场试图揣测他们下一步的行动。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Let's find out. Seema Shah is joining us now, Principal Asset Management Chief Global Strategist. Seema, what do you think? I mean, the market has been built this way for quite a while now in this modern era of the Fed that we get a lot of communication and the market tries to suss out what do they think the Fed is going to do.
所以现在他们在收缩，而沃什说要根据数据进行交易，您认为这会有什么效果？ 你好，Julie。就像你说的，这个主意很好听，看起来很不错。当沃什第一次这么说的时候，我也觉得，这很有道理。但实际上，你可能在这种想法上转来转去，反复摇摆。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So now that they're pulling back and Warsh is saying trade on the data, how do you think that's going to work out? Hi, Julie. Well, as you said, this is, you know, it's a nice idea. It sounds really good. And certainly when Warsh first said it, I thought, yeah, that makes a lot of sense. But actually, you can do a lot of mind twists and flip-flops on this.
当你开始回想时，市场不可避免地是前瞻性的，是面向未来的。市场总是会试图预测美联储可能会采取的行动以及它将如何应对数据。这就是市场的运作方式。实际上，如果没有前置指导和对其反应机制的理解，市场对新数据的反应可能会更加波动。正如他昨天特别指出的，有些数据可能需要重新审视，因为它们相当不可靠。另外，经济学界和所有关注市场的人都在努力应对过去几年中“正确预测”的挑战，因为这段时间充满了不确定性和噪声。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
As you start to remember, the market is inevitably, it's forward-facing, it's forward-looking. It's always going to try and game out what the Fed is likely to do and how it's going to respond to the data. I mean, that's the way that the market is built. And actually, if anything, without the forward guidance, understanding of their reaction function, it means that the market is going to be a little bit more volatile to the data as it unfolds. Which you already know, as he specifically pointed out yesterday, that some of the data probably needs to be revisited because it is fairly unreliable. It is fairly unreliable. And, you know, by the same token, like the economics profession, and I think all of us who follow the markets, have sort of grappled with, you know, what the right forecast is over the past several years, because it has been a very noisy time.
所以，你知道，接下来你会关注什么？有没有某些报告？因为看起来委员会真的开始倾向于关注通货膨胀的问题。你会特别关注哪些方面呢？是的，我的意思是，正如昨天沃尔什所说的，重点确实是价格稳定。因此，这就意味着更加关注通货膨胀。当然，市场一直都没有忽视这一点。但我想他们会更进一步关注通胀指标和通胀预期。不过，这并不意味着我们会忽视劳动力市场的发展情况。毕竟这仍然是他们的重要职责之一。而且，如果劳动力市场过热，这最终也会影响到价格压力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, you know, going forward, what are you going to be sort of queuing off of? Are there certain reports? Because it seems like the committee is really tilting towards being concerned about inflation. What are you going to be watching most closely? Yeah, I mean, as you said, I think from what Walsh was saying yesterday, the focus is really on price stability. So, that means greater focus on inflation. I mean, there already is. It's not like the market has been dismissing it by any means. But I guess further focus on inflation measures, further focus on inflation expectations. But that doesn't mean that we're going to look away from the labor market, how the jobs data is going. But that's still part of their mandate. And, of course, it will ultimately lead through to price pressures if you're seeing the labor market heating up.
我认为，在接下来的几个月里，特别是到年底为止，我们将面临一些额外的市场波动，因为市场正在试图理解政策的反应机制。我们希望到时候各个工作组能给出一些解决方案。但是，美联储真正重视的数据是什么呢？我觉得他昨天说的一点非常重要，我们非常赞同，就是要努力理解生产力和人工智能对经济和通货膨胀的影响，以及美联储应该如何应对。现在，这些问题仍然很不明朗。我认为所有经济学家都在努力解决这些问题。因此，美联储如果能提供对此方面的前瞻性观点，将会非常有帮助。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think what we're facing, though, in the months ahead, specifically, you know, until the end of the year, when hopefully we get some resolution from the task forces, is there is going to be that additional volatility where markets try and understand what the reaction function is. But what is the really important data that the Fed is going to be focusing on? I do think one of the things that he did say yesterday, which is really important, that we do really strongly agree with, is just trying to understand what the impact of productivity and AI is going to be on the economy, on inflation, therefore, on how the Fed should respond. And that's something which is still very cloudy at this moment. I think all economists are trying to grapple with it. So I think getting a forward-looking perspective from the Fed on that is going to be very, very useful.
或者至少是一个他们思考问题的框架，对吧？即便他们不会给出像前瞻指引那样具体的信息，但至少应该有一些参数。那么最终，你认为美联储今年会加息吗？我们进入这次会议时预计利率将一直保持不变，直到2026年和2027年。随着伊朗战争有望解决，我们希望夏季及以后的通胀压力能够有所缓解。根据这种情况，通胀预期应该会相当稳定。这是主要原因。当然，我得说，在昨天的会议之后，加息的可能性确实增加了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Or at least a framework with how they're thinking about it, right? Even if they're not going to give us, like, forward guidance, you know, some sort of parameters. So ultimately, do you think that the Fed is going to have to raise rates this year? So we came into the meeting expecting rates to stay on hold throughout 2026 and through 2027 as well. With the resolution, hopefully some kind of resolution with the Iran war, we are hoping that inflation pressures start to subside a little bit during the summer months and beyond. And inflation expectations should, in that theme, stay quite anchored. So that's the main reason. Now, I have to say, of course, the probability of hikes have increased after yesterday's meeting.
我们仍然坚持我们对没有变化的预期。不过，我必须承认，今年至少有一次或两次加息的可能性增加了。而且你提到了伊朗战争，因为它对油价产生了影响，尽管它并不是一些石油专家所预见的最糟糕情况。你怎么看待当前的地缘政治呢，尤其是在一个市场对许多最糟糕情况都置之不理的时期之后？在过去几个月中，确实发生了一些真实事件。但我们认为，地缘政治几乎是我们在展望未来5到10年时需要纳入整体思考的一部分。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We're still holding on to our expectation for no change. But I have to acknowledge that the chances have increased for at least one or two hikes this year. And you mentioned, of course, the Iran war as a feed-in to all of this because of the effect it's had on oil prices, although it has not been the worst-case scenario that some oil pundits were pointing to. How do you think about geopolitics at this point, you know, especially after a period where the markets shrugged off a lot of those worst-case scenarios? You know, this is, I think, of course, we've had this real event happen over the last couple of months. But to our minds, actually, geopolitics is something that we almost need to bring into our overall thinking as we look ahead over the next five, ten years.
我们看到一个地缘政治冲突可能加剧的世界。从这个角度来看，世界各国政府将越来越多地将开支集中在能源安全、国防以及真正建立其基础设施上。因此，我认为这其中有很多主题。 但我们最终预期的一件事情是，通货膨胀将在结构上居高不下。所以，我们也需要了解美联储将如何应对。目前，我们正面临一个难题，那就是很难透彻理解美联储的反应机制。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We see a world where geopolitical conflict is likely to be increasing. And from that perspective, governments around the world are going to be focusing more and more of their spending power on energy security, defense, and trying to really build out their foundations. So I think there's a lot of thematics which come through this. One of the things that we do ultimately expect, though, is that inflation is going to be structurally higher. And so with that in mind, also having an understanding from the Fed how they're going to be responding. You know, at the moment, we're grappling with something which is very difficult to pass through what the Fed's reaction function is.
正如你所说，要想在未来更好地思考和模拟地缘政治冲击的影响，从央行获取某种框架将是关键所在。那么，Seema，总结一下，从战略上来说，目前你具体对股票市场有什么操作？你会保持现状吗？会继续坚持这个方向吗？是的，你绝对要坚持下去。毕竟，我们预测的主要基础是经济的状况。基于这一点，我们仍然非常乐观。我们看到的背景是非常有利的，市场表现出持续的韧性和消费者支出的强劲。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, as you said, getting some kind of framework from the central bank is going to be really key going forward to how we can think and how we can start to model the impact of geopolitical shocks. So put it all together for me, Seema, sort of strategically, what you do specifically with equities right now. Do you sort of stay intact? Do you stay the course here? How are you thinking about it? You definitely stay the course. I mean, ultimately, the main foundation that we have to rest our forecast on is what is going on in the economy. And from that basis, we're still very positive. We see a backdrop, which is very constructive, strongly market continued resilience and consumer spending.
当然，在人工智能资本支出方面有一个非常显著的推动。因此，从这个角度来看，收益增长应该会继续保持积极，这将推动整体收益和股市表现至上。至于该如何布局，我认为这是真正需要多元化投资的时刻。当然，我们要关注科技领域，因为这将成为未来发展的主要动力。过程中可能会出现小波动，但最终，我们认为这将是经济发展的推动力量。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Then, of course, a very significant push on the AI CapEx side. So from that perspective, earnings growth should continue to be positive and that should firepower earnings and the equity market overall. In terms of where you have to be, well, I think this is a real case for diversification. Of course, we want to be in technology. That is going to be a key driver going forward. And there may well be blips along the way. But ultimately, we do think this is a driving force for the economy.
但是，你还是希望有一定的多样化，因为当市场上出现这种高估值和泡沫迹象时，你需要一些对冲措施。因此，我们越来越多地关注中国市场，实际上它与美国的大型科技公司有些不同。因此，如果科技行业出现一些回调，我们认为中国市场可能表现更好。总体上，我们会继续关注周期性行业，因为宏观经济环境比较有利。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But you want to have diversification because when you have these kind of valuations, the kind of signs of a bit of froth in the market, you need to have offsets to that. So increasingly, we've been looking at China, actually, and it's been a little bit separated from the broader U.S. hyperscaler tech space. And so we think that could outperform if, in the event that there is a bit of a pullback on the tech side, and then overall continuing to focus on cyclicals because of that constructive macro backdrop.
希玛，很高兴见到你。非常感谢你！正如我们所说的，今天纽约尼克斯队将在曼哈顿市中心举行盛大的纸带游行。你可以看到，那里的人们排成长队。今天一大早，很多人就赶往市区，为了能占到一个好位置观看游行。我们在Yonka Finance对此感到非常兴奋，整个纽约也充满了期待。我们会在游行进行的时候去看看。稍后再回来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Seema, great to see you. Thank you so much. And as we had to break, as we've been talking about today, the New York Knicks are getting a ticker tape parade in downtown Manhattan. You see there, the people lined up. People were heading into the city very early this morning in order to get their spot for the parade. So we're excited here at Yonka Finance. We're excited here in New York. And we're going to be taking a peek at the parade as it goes. We'll be right back.
我们马上回来。加入我的是Alexandria Hood，她是Wealth Cable Advisory的创始人，为您带来本周由Capital Growth赞助的FA专栏。Alexandria，非常感谢你来到这里。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. What she's focused on joining me now, Alexandria Hood, Wealth Cable Advisory Founder for this week's FA Corner brought to you by Capital Growth. Alexandria, thank you so much for being here.
你知道的，我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我知道你也会马上回来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, we're going to be right back. You know, we're going to be right back. We'll be right back. We're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. You're going to be right back. You're going to be right back. You're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. And we're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. And I know you're going to be right back.
你知道吗，我们很快就会回来。我们很快就会回来。我们很快就会回来。我们很快就会回来。我们很快就会回来。我们很快就会回来。我们很快就会回来。这是一个被严重忽视和服务不足的社区，我注意到的是，与我相似的人，无论是种族、性别还是经济地位，他们认为自己不配或者不应该拥有一个财务顾问。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You know, we're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. We're going to be right back. This is an absolutely under-marketed and underserved community that, and what I've noticed is people who look like me, whether it's by race, gender, or economic standing, they don't think that they deserve or that they should have a financial advisor.
这是一个重要时刻，在你开始赚取超出你习惯的财富之前，你应该有一个明确的计划来增长和管理这些财富。然而，人们会认为他们负担不起这样的计划，对吗？他们认为财务建议是一种不值得花钱或者没有钱去花的东西。他们确实这样认为。而我相信，传统金融行业对此负有一定责任，因为低收入和单收入家庭在这个领域确实被忽视了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Whereas this is the time where you should have one before you begin to make an excess of money that you aren't used to so that you have a clear plan of how to grow it and maintain it. Do people, though, also think that they can't afford it, right? That financial advising is something that they don't want to spend the money on or don't have the money to spend on? They do think that. And I do believe that the traditional finance industry plays a part in that because, again, low-income and single-income households are very under-marketed.
因为目前没有人针对他们进行宣传，也没有人跟他们说：“嘿，我可以帮助你在现有的基础上制定一个预算，”所以他们会觉得自己不需要预算或者不应该有预算。亚历山德拉，我想请教你一些关于新闻中提到的事情，它们如何与您的客户群体相关联？当然，您知道特朗普总统推出的账户，这些账户是从出生起就为婴儿设立，希望他们能在一生中积累一些收入。您认为这是个好事吗？您认为这是一个良好的开端吗？您认为该计划可以如何改进？我认为这是一个机会。无论你的政治立场如何，这都是一个了不起的机会。你可以将这笔声称将存入这些未成年人账户的1000美元进行投资，确保投资于会与这些未成年人一起成长的公司和基金。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So because no one is marketing to them and saying, hey, I can help you create a budget where you are right now, they think that they shouldn't have one or they don't need one. Alexandra, I'm curious to ask you about a couple things in the news and how they sort of speak to your client base, right? Of course, you're aware of the accounts that President Trump has rolled out, you know, that sort of are seeded accounts from birth that babies will get to hopefully build some income for them over their lifetime. Do you think that's a good thing? Do you think it's a good beginning and how do you think that could be improved on? I think it's an opportunity. Regardless of where you fall in the political space, it is an amazing opportunity for you to take that $1,000 that is being stated will go into these miners' accounts and then make sure that you invest with it and you invest in companies and funds that will grow with that miner.
我也很好奇，在我们现在有了一个万亿富翁的时代，以及财富严重不平等的情况下，你认为人们是否会因此受到激励？那些拥有难以想象巨额财富的人，会不会让普通人觉得这个系统是有漏洞的，他们又会如何看待自己如何参与其中？我要坦诚地说，我可以给出一个政治正确的答案，说人们很可能会受到激励，但根据我最近的很多对话，人们觉得这个系统是有漏洞的。在某些方面，我能理解为什么他们会这样想，也能理解他们为什么会觉得自己不能参与其中。然而，游戏已经在被售卖，或者说被讲述，现在我们的任务是确保我们关注并跟上趋势。不管你怎么想这个万亿富翁的身份，他向我们展示了这是可能的。确实如此，我很高兴你在帮助人们实现这个目标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then the other thing I'm curious about also, at a time when we now have a trillionaire, right, and at a time of big wealth inequality, do you think that the people are sort of inspired by that? Those, you know, these people who are worth incredible amounts of money that are hard to even envision, or do you think it makes them feel like the system is rigged and sort of how do they then think about how they can participate? I'm going to be honest. I could give the politically correct answer here and say that people are most likely inspired, but a lot of the conversations that I've had recently, people feel as if the system is rigged. And in some ways, I can understand why they would think that and why they would think that they don't, aren't allowed to be a player in the game, but the game is being sold right now. It is, or the game is being told, I should say, and it's now our job to make sure that we pay attention and we follow suit. Regardless of what you think about this trillionaire status, he is showing us that it's possible. Indeed, and I'm glad you're out there helping people do that.
亚历山大，非常感谢你。真的很感激你。感谢你。这是由Capital Group带来的FA Corner节目。接下来，我们将查看一些热门股票，并讨论代理购物。这种购物方式是即将到来还是遥遥无期呢？我们即将讨论这个话题。马上回来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Alexandria, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Thank you. That was FA Corner brought to you by Capital Group. Coming up, we'll get a check on some trending tickers and also be talking about agentic shopping. Is it around the corner or far away? We'll talk about it next. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.
好吧，人工智能似乎正在迅速改变一些行业，但零售业的变化稍微慢了一些。美国运通的新研究发现，尽管78%的消费者认为人工智能可以对他们的购物体验产生积极影响，但只有35%的人愿意让人工智能代理为他们完成购买。这表明存在一个差距，即在对人工智能的热情与人们对这些系统的信任之间。现在加入我们的是美国运通集团全球商户和网络服务总裁安娜·马尔斯。安娜，很高兴见到你。我想大家对这个全新的代理购物世界非常好奇，但根据你们的调查，人们可能还没有足够准备好迎接它。这就是这项研究的结论吗？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, AI seems to be rapidly changing some industries retails off to a bit of a slower start. New research from American Express finds that while 78% of consumers believe that AI can have a positive impact on their shopping experience. AI can have a positive impact on their shopping experience, just 35% would be comfortable having an AI agent complete a purchase for them. So there's a gap between that AI. So there's a gap between that AI enthusiasm and the trust that people have in those systems. Joining me now on this is Ana Mars, American Express Group, president of Global Merchant and Network Services. Ana, it's great to see you. And I think there's a lot of curiosity, right, about this whole new world of agentic shopping. But to the point of your survey, people maybe aren't quite ready for it. Is that the sort of takeaway here?
很高兴见到你，很高兴见到你，Julie。能够在这里很棒。这些优秀的统计数据确实显示了所谓的信任差距。要真正推动代理购物的发展，消费者需要信任他们会收到自己想要的东西。商家需要相信无论是在购买时还是随后，系统都能正常运作。我们还需要确保支付网络能够减少欺诈并处理相关协议来简化流程。所以我们相信这一天会到来，但发展进程不是随着技术的速度，而是随着信任的速度。这是有道理的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, it's great to see you. Well, it's great to see you, Julie. It's great to be here. Those great stats really do show what you could call a trust gap, you know, for agentic shopping to really take off. Consumers need to trust. They'll get what they intended to. Merchants need to trust that it'll work, you know, both at the purchase point and on the back end. And we need to know what the payments network in between is going to work to reduce fraud and handle the protocols that make this easy. So we believe it's coming, but it's been a move not at the speed of technology, rather at the speed of trust. And that makes sense.
那么你如何缩小这个差距呢？这是否只是一个时间问题，需要逐步积累，一点点缩小差距，让更多人，无论是商家还是消费者，积累更多积极的经验，并确保事情不会出错？我认为这与我们20年前看到的电子商务发展，或者更近一些的数字钱包的增长并不完全相同。人们需要去尝试和实验。我们目前处于一种由人工智能影响、人类决策的代理性商业阶段，这意味着顾客已经在使用大型语言模型，比如CLAWD或ChatGPT，来研究他们的购物选择。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So how do you close that gap? Is it a matter of just sort of time and chipping away at it and more people having more experiences, both on the merchant and consumer side, that are positive, that, you know, things don't go wrong? Well, I don't think it's that similar to what we saw with the growth of e-commerce 20 years ago or digital wallets more recently. People need to experiment and try it out. We're still in the phase of sort of AI-influenced, human-approved agentic commerce, which means that customers are already using large language models and, you know, CLAWD or ChatGPT to research their shopping purchases.
正如你之前所说，他们发现这真的很有用。这帮助人们在探索阶段进行发现。但是，我们需要看到的是这种流程贯穿整个商业体验。因此，在发现阶段已经很有用。我们正在与许多行业参与者合作，制定协议，使结账变得容易。在商家方面，可以展示库存，并使他们的政策，比如退货政策，非常清晰。还有购买后的体验。我记得当电子商务刚刚兴起时，如何处理退货是一个大问题。现在这些问题都得到了很好的解决，而且这也必须在新兴的代理领域中实现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And as you said earlier, they're finding it really useful. You know, it helps people discover in the discovery phase. But what we need to see is that flow through to the whole phase of a commerce experience. So it's already useful for discovery. We're putting in place the protocols, working with many industry participants to make it easy to check out. And then on the merchant side, be able to surface inventory, make their policies, their returns policies, for example, really clear. And then the post-purchase experience. You know, I remember back when e-commerce was first taking off, the question of how returns were handled was a big deal. Now that's very much worked out, and that has to happen in the agentic space, too.
消费者最担心的是，如果我告诉代理在打折时帮我买一件红色连衣裙，结果却收到了一件蓝色的，该怎么办？这确实是个问题。为了解决这个，我们推出了一个叫“代理购买保护”的措施。在电子商务的世界里，人为错误是难免的。而在代理购物的世界里，也会出现代理错误。我们希望确保我们的持卡人知道，如果代理没有完全按照指示操作，我们会为他们提供支持。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And critically, the concern for consumers is, like, what if I tell the agent to buy me a red dress when it goes on sale and I get a blue dress? Yes. What happened then? And that's a space that we've leaned into with something called agent purchase protection, right? Because in this world of e-commerce, you've got human error. It's true. It happens to all of us. But in the world of agentic commerce, you could have agent error. And we want to make sure that our card members know we have their backs in case the agent doesn't do exactly what you instructed it to do.
我也很好奇，Anna，你提到广义的电子商务时代，这很有意思。现在我们处在一个人工智能的世界中，我之前在节目中讨论过苹果公司及其向苹果智能的转型，人们甚至不必理解这是人工智能，也不需要将其标记为人工智能，他们只需要对自己有用的东西。所以，我很好奇，当你思考代理购物（agentic）时，能否说明一下关键点是什么？有什么具体的用例？你认为什么时候人们会把代理购物视为他们生活中真正有用的东西？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I'm also curious, Anna, and it's interesting that you talk about the era of e-commerce broadly. Now that we're in this AI world, and we've had this discussion on my show before about Apple specifically, and it's, you know, pivot to Apple intelligence, that people don't even necessarily, like, need to understand that it's AI or that it needs to be branded AI. They just need something that is useful to them, right? And so I'm curious, as you think about agentic, what is the proof point? What is the use case? What do you think is going to be the tipping point of when people see this agentic shopping as something that is really useful in their lives?
正如你所说，这种情况总是最早在一些特定行业中出现，因为这些行业的应用场景非常明确。我们正在讨论的其中之一就是旅游业，因为旅游的购买过程非常复杂。你需要做大量的研究，而且价格经常变化，比如酒店价格可能会上涨或下降。人在网上不停查看价格既费时又麻烦，因此你会希望有个代理人能帮你搜索。正因为如此，我们将看到这一趋势在某些行业更早地发展起来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It always happens earliest in select industries, as you say, where the use case is really clear. And one that we're talking about that others talk about is travel, right? Because it's a complicated purchase journey. You have to do a lot of research. It's a space where prices change. So you know that that hotel price might go up or down. And there's a point where you can't just be online checking the prices all the time. You'd really enjoy delegating that to an agent that can be out there searching for you. And so we'll see it grow in certain industries earlier.
我认为旅行是一个很好的例子。对于复杂的购买，例如某些商品的购买，可能会更容易一些，因为你不那么担心是否得到了完全正确的东西。我们现在看到的是有越来越多行业参与者在努力实现这一目标。因此，我们正处在一个阶段，看到许多不同的协议正在出现，无论是谷歌、Cloudflare还是Coinbase。参与这些协议能够帮助整理好一切，并开始看到其规模效应。消费者的行为总是需要一些时间来改变。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think travel is a great example. Complex purchases, maybe commodity purchases in some cases might be easier because you're not as worried about getting the exact right thing. And what we see now is the number of industry participants working to make that happen. And so it's a phase where we're seeing a lot of different protocols emerge, whether it's Google or Cloudflare or Coinbase. The protocols that you participate in to get this all lined up to begin to see its scale. Consumer behavior always takes a little bit of time to change.
因此，最早期的使用案例，以及向消费者和商家展示的价值和证明，将成为这种价值真正开始扩大的起点。目前这个过程已经开始。这种变化可能会比我们预期得更快，因为有一些非常明显的例子显示，如何能让消费者的生活变得更加便利。Ana，我很好奇，你提到了很多利益相关者和服务提供商，包括美国运通。那么，商家对此感觉如何呢？比如那些实际的零售商、服装制造商或者其他卖家，他们是否主动联系你们？还是更多是你和你所提到的团队在主动推广这些服务？这些服务是商家表示他们真的需要的，还是这种推广方式是怎样的？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so it'll be those early use cases and the proof and the value both to consumer and to merchant where the value can really be there to begin to see its scale. And it's starting. It'll happen maybe faster than we think because there are some really clear examples of how it can make a consumer's life a lot easier. And Ana, you know, I'm curious, you mentioned a number of constituents and service providers there, including American Express. How are the merchants feeling about all of this? How, you know, the actual retailers themselves or, you know, clothing manufacturers or what have you, the folks who are selling this stuff, are they coming to you? Or is it more like you and that cohort you talked about saying, we have these services. Do you want them? Or is it the retailer saying we'd really like these services or how is that going?
好的。当我与世界各地的企业交谈时，有一点是所有企业共有的，那就是它们都想发展自己的业务。这也是商家的关注点：这种方式能否帮助我增长业务？有一个显而易见的例子是购物车被遗弃的问题。如今，大多数电商购物过程都在结账时因为种种原因被终止，比如配送时间不清楚，或者有额外收费，或者顾客被其他事情分心。这些导致购物车被遗弃的情况，就是代理电商能够发挥重要作用的领域。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah. Well, you know, when I talk to businesses all around the world, one thing that all businesses have in common is wanting to grow their business. And so that's the proof for merchants, right? Will it help me grow my business? And a clear place where it could or it will is let's take the abandoned shopping cart as an example. So today, most e-commerce journeys end with an abandoned shopping cart. So when you get to checkout, there are other terms that you didn't understand, like how long it would take to be delivered or additional charges, or you just got distracted and did something else. And dealing with that abandoned shopping cart, that's a space where agentic commerce could make a big difference.
因为在客户到达之前，AI已经完成了研究，了解了出售条款、最终销售和退货等信息。因此，购买过程更有可能顺利完成。而且，这也可能提高授权通过率，因为有时候交易会失败，比如你的银行卡更新了但没有在系统中更新，这就是授权失败的一个例子。所以，对于商家来说，他们当然希望能扩展业务。如果我们能向他们展示一些能真正帮助他们解决支付过程中持续摩擦的案例，这正是他们所期望的。我相信这将会实现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Because by the time the customer gets there, the AI has already done the research, already understands the terms of sale, final sale and return. And so the agentic, the purchase is much more likely to be completed. It could also result in higher authorization rates, like there are times when the transaction fails. Maybe you got your card changed and it wasn't updated in the platform as an example of why an authorization doesn't happen. So for merchants, they're interested, of course, in growing their business. And if we can show them use cases where it really can help them deal with continued friction in payments, that's what they're looking for. And I'm confident it's coming.
安娜，随着过程的进行，我们一定会继续交流，看看进展有多快。很高兴见到你。谢谢。希望你可以试试看，朱莉。未来我们可以通过代理更轻松地购买很多好东西。我肯定会在某个时候尝试的。谢谢你。非常感谢。很高兴和你聊天。我也是。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And Ana, we'll keep definitely talking as the process goes on and see how fast it progresses. Great to see you. Thank you. Hope you try it out, Julie. There's a lot of good things that we can be buying more easily with our agents in the future. I will at some point, I'm sure. Thank you. Thanks a lot. Great to talk to you. You too.
根据Semifor的报道，Fox并不是唯一对收购Roku感兴趣的媒体巨头。谢谢。Netflix也在考虑收购Roku这个流媒体平台，以及Lionsgate，作为他们在错失华纳兄弟探索公司交易后的潜在收购目标。市场统治节目主持人Josh Lipton采访了这则新闻背后的记者。首先，我想讨论的是Netflix居然关注Roku这件事，这非常有趣。请向观众说明这一点。他们为什么会在战略上对这个资产感兴趣呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, Semifor reported that Fox was not the only media giant interested in buying Roku. Thank you. Netflix was eyeing the streaming platform as well as Lionsgate as potential acquisition targets after losing out on the Warner Brothers Discovery deal. Market domination anchor Josh Lipton sat down with the reporter behind that news. First thing I want to get into, the fact that Netflix even looked at Roku is fascinating. Just walk the audience through that. Why would they be interested in that asset strategically?
当然。如果你想想Roku的位置，就像你非常了解的那样，它是每个主要流媒体平台都依赖的平台。它至少进入了一亿个家庭。因此，对于拥有这些资产的任何人来说，这都能让他们深入了解用户的观看数据，了解人们如何消费内容，喜欢什么内容，不喜欢什么内容。对于Netflix这样的公司（我们并不知道这是否真的发生，但我这里只是举个例子），或者像Comcast、迪士尼，甚至是福克斯这样的潜在买家来说，它允许他们提升和定制他们的数据收集能力、提供内容的能力，以及吸引消费者的能力。正如你现在所知，这已成为游戏规则。如今不再是Netflix独占市场的时代，这种情况已经超过十年不复存在了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Absolutely. If you think about where Roku sits, as you very well know, it is a platform that every single major streamer relies upon. It's in 100 million homes, right, at least. So it gives anyone who owns that assets a tremendous look into viewership data, into how people are consuming content, what content they like, what content they don't like. For a strategic like Netflix, or we don't know this, but I'm just naming names here, the logical buyers, a Comcast or a Disney, ultimately a Fox. It allows them to lever up and tailor their data collection, their ability to serve content, their ability to get in front of consumers, which as you now know, is the name of the game. Gone are the days where Netflix was the only player. That hasn't been the case for a decade plus.
这就是促使他们最初对Roku产生兴趣的原因。我应该说是他们最初的兴趣。显然，他们退出了，那个资产最终被Fox得到了。但正如你指出的，这确实表明了一些事情。他们首次对合并与收购持开放态度，而这在行业中是一个重大变化。根据你的报道，他们是否因为价格犹豫不决呢？我们的理解是，根据围绕这一问题的对话来看，价格可能是个问题，但Netflix与Roku顾问及团队之间的对话还处于非常初步和早期的阶段。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that is what was driving their initial, and I should say its initial, interest in Roku. Obviously, they bowed out. That asset went to Fox. But it does, as you pointed out, signal something. They are, for the first time ever, open to M&A. And that's a big sea change in this industry. And did your reporting suggest they balk at the price, ultimately? Is that what happened? Our understanding was, based on the conversations that are around this, is that price may have been an issue, but the conversations were so preliminary and so early between Netflix and Roku's advisors and Roku's team.
到了一个节点，Netflix意识到他们其实不需要这个资产。正如你所知，Roku是从Netflix分离出来的，最初是在Netflix内部孵化的，因此两者之间有很密切的关系。话虽如此，我们知道他们对价格非常敏感。Ted Serrano多次公开表示，我们是非常有纪律的买家，不会为一个资产支付过高的价格。当他们放弃华纳兄弟时，你就看到了这一点。另外，我们报道了一个Netflix随后否认的消息，我们可以讨论这个问题，即他们是对Lionsgate感兴趣的众多传媒公司之一。Lionsgate是市场上少数独立工作室之一。但我们看到的情况是，他们面临着新的模式。他们过去是建设者，现在仍然是出色的建设者。但在如今的生态系统中，无论是并购生态还是科技生态，他们也需要成为买家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It got to the point where Netflix realized, okay, we don't really need this asset. Because as you know, Roku spun out of Netflix. It was actually incubated there. So there's a lot of close relationships there. That being said, we know they're sensitive on price. They've gone on the record. Ted Serrano has said repeatedly, we are disciplined buyers. We are not going to overpay for an asset. You saw that when they walked away from Warner Brothers. And the other thing that we reported, which Netflix, of course, came out and denied, and we can talk about that, is that they are one of a number of media companies interested in Lionsgate. That's one of the last independent studios out there. But again, there's this paradigm that they face now. They used to be builders. They still are builders. They're great builders. But now, in this ecosystem, in this M&A ecosystem, and in this tech ecosystem, they have to be buyers, too.
所以，Netflix 确实否认了吗？你怎么看？我认为，如果你是一个聪明的买家，你当然会否认任何计划。实际情况是，他们在否认华纳兄弟。他们反复公开表示，我们对介入传统媒体没有兴趣，我们对收购一家工作室没有兴趣，我们认为大规模并购不是解决任何问题的办法，在整个出售过程中都是这样。我并不是说他们在撒谎，也并不是说他们没说实话。在接受行业刊物采访时，公司发言人表示，我们不打算购买这个资产。但我们的观点不是说他们对这个资产有积极兴趣。我们的观点是，他们是曾经对这个资产感兴趣的多家媒体公司之一。如果狮门影业要出售，任何头脑清醒的人都会去看一下这个资产。这可能是Netflix，也可能是HBO，或者是康卡斯特，因为能被收购的工作室已经不多了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So Netflix did deny it? What did you make of that? Well, I think if you're a smart buyer, you're going to deny anything. The reality is, they were denying Warner Brothers. They repeatedly, on the record, were saying, we have no interest in getting into legacy media. We have no interest in getting into a studio. We don't think big M&A is the answer to anything, up until and through the sale process. I'm not saying that they're lying. I'm not saying that they're not telling the truth. A company spokesperson went on the record and told the trade publication, hey, we're not going to buy this asset. But again, our point wasn't that they are actively interested in this asset. Our point is they are one of a number of media companies who have been, at some point, interested in this asset. Should Lionsgate go up for sale, anyone in their right mind is going to take a look at that asset. It could be a Netflix. It could be an HBO. It could be a Comcast. Because there are very few studios left that could be up for grabs.
好的，我想问你关于这件事。我是说，从战略上来说，狮门影业对Netflix有什么意义？内容，对，就是这样。如果你考虑一下Netflix目前的情况，他们正在与其他公司竞争原创内容。他们每年必须在全球内容上花费数十亿甚至上百亿美元。目标是要在每一种语言中都有一部热门的系列作品。这对他们来说不容易，这在从脚本阶段开始就不容易做到。既然狮门影业这样拥有优秀库的公司在市场上，为什么不考虑一下呢？我应该说明，狮门影业并没有积极地推销自己。但是这一行人人都认识，大家私下里随意地交流。而且狮门影业面临很大压力，需要尽快采取行动。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, I wanted to ask you about that. I mean, Lionsgate strategically, what hole does that fill for Netflix? Content. Yeah. That's it. If you think about where Netflix sits now, they're competing on originals with everyone else. They have to spend billions upon billions of dollars a year on global content. Right? The goal is to have a hit franchise in every language for them. And that's not easy to do internally. That's not easy to do when you're specking scripts out. When you have a great library like Lionsgate that's on the market, why not take a look? And I should be clear, Lionsgate isn't actively marketing itself. But everyone knows everyone in this industry. Everyone talks informally and casually. And there certainly is a lot of pressure on Lionsgate to do something soon.
当Netflix瞄准沃纳兄弟探索公司（WBD）的时候，他们具体想要的是哪些资产？是HBO，CNN，还是影视制作工作室？答案不是CNN，他们明确表示不想要CNN业务。这个过程就像德克萨斯的“两步走”策略，虽然这是一个破产术语，但是很复杂。具体的策略是，他们计划剥离线性电视网络，这不仅仅是CNN，而是一系列的全球资产和频道，而Netflix则只想保留影视工作室部分，也就是华纳兄弟的标志性工作室和HBO。这样做不仅能为他们提供更大的平台，也会带来大量的内容，比如HBO的独家内容是非常惊人的。我们在谈《黑道家族》，在谈《权力的游戏》，这些都是一些最具标志性的系列作品。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When Netflix was targeting WBD, what were they targeting there? HBO, CNN, the studio? What was it? They didn't want CNN. And they were very clear on that. We don't want the CNN business. That was the whole, remember, complicated sort of Texas two-step. That's a bankruptcy term. But the two-step that they were running, which was we were going to spin off the linear networks. That's not just CNN. It's a grab bag of global assets and global channels. And Netflix was going to keep just the studios. So that's Warner Brothers, the iconic studio, and HBO. That would have given them a larger platform, obviously, but also huge amounts of content. I mean, if you think about the exclusive content on HBO, it's incredible. We're talking about The Sopranos. We're talking about Game of Thrones. We're talking about some of the most iconic franchises ever.
所以，Netflix 对 Roku 感兴趣让我感到惊讶。他们有很好的技术堆栈，完全可以自己开发。他们已经进入了很多家庭。与华纳兄弟的内容合作完全合情合理，因为这填补了所有平台都会有的内容空缺。他们需要更多的内容来吸引更多人观看。当 Netflix 放弃与华纳兄弟的合作而投资者欢呼时，这种反应告诉了我们什么呢？其实，我要说，投资者确实是欢呼的，他们很高兴Netflix在价格上表现得很克制。但这也暴露了市场上的一个根本担忧。如果你看Netflix现在的股票交易情况，它仍然低于宣布竞购这个资产的时候。原因是多年来，Netflix 一直是不可动摇的王者。他们就像一个封闭的黑匣子，我们无法获得详细的观众数据，也不真正知道每部剧的表现如何。他们已经习惯让市场因为他们的增长而给予奖励。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So again, Netflix's interest in Roku was surprising to me. They have a great tech stack. They can build it themselves. They're in a lot of homes. Warner Brothers, a content deal, makes total sense. That fills a hole that will always be there for any player. They need more stuff, more people to be watching more stuff. When Netflix walks away from WBD and investors cheer, what did that response tell you? I would actually caveat, investors did cheer. They were happy that Netflix was disciplined on price. But it also betrayed a fundamental worry on the street. If you look at where Netflix is trading now, it's still below where it was when it announced it was bidding on this asset and was going to buy this asset. And that's because, for years, they have been the unassailable king. They've kind of been a black box. We don't get detailed viewership data. We don't really know how individual shows are performing. And they've taught the street to reward it for growth.
所有公司的增长速度都在放缓，而且成本在增加。因此，Netflix追求华纳兄弟的行为在许多行业中被视为承认他们的现有发展模式正在失效或即将失效。换句话说，Netflix的股东们会这样看待此事：一方面，你可以说，作为一家大公司，资金充裕，可以去并购。当然可以。可另一方面，你也会问：这是否因为你们对自身的自然增长感到担忧？完全正确。那这对底层业务意味着什么呢？一个很好的对比是有线电视行业多年来不愿承认"剪线"这一问题。每位高管都知道这是个问题，直到迪士尼的财报电话会议上，Bob Iger最终承认"剪线"开始影响我们的业务。那应该是在2014年或者2016年。我们已经超过十年了，大家都会对这个问题产生质疑。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Well, growth for all players is slowing and getting more expensive. And so Netflix's pursuit of Warner Brothers was seen in many camps as a concession that their build model was breaking down or would break down. In other words, Netflix shareholders, you're looking at this. On one hand, you could say, well, you're a big company, plenty of cash. Go after it. Do the M&A. Absolutely. You're saying, well, hold on. Is that because you're worried about organic growth? Exactly. What does that say about the underlying business? The great comparison is the cable industry's unwillingness to say cord cutting for years. Every exec knew it was an issue. And it wasn't until that iconic call, the Disney earnings call, where Bob Iger finally acknowledged that cord cutting is a starting day at our business. I want to say that's 2014, 2016. We're more than a decade out there. Everyone questions that.
每一家线性公司都在尝试调整他们的模式。那么，Netflix到了这个时候吗？绝对不是。但我认为，在公司内部和周围的人、他们的顾问、观察者都明白，Netflix的模式迟早需要改变。他们需要从只靠自己做这一切转变为无论以什么方式获得增长和资产。因为正如你所知，他们在文化上非常特立独行，这一直是他们的问题。大型并购是困难的。但Ted Sarandos公开表示，他非常有信心他们能够做到这一点。Ron，很棒的故事。精彩的报道。感谢你的到来。非常感谢。不客气。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Every linear company has tried to rejigger their model. Is Netflix at that point? Absolutely not. But there is an understanding, I think, for people in and around the company, their advisors, internally, observers, that at some point their model needs to shift. It needs to go from, we are just going to do this ourselves, to we will take growth and assets however we can find it. Because culturally, as you know, they're very idiosyncratic. That's always been their issue. Big M&A is hard. But Ted Sarandos, publicly has said he's very confident that they're going to be able to do it. Ron, great story. Great reporting. Thanks for coming in. Thanks so much. My pleasure.
接下来，我们将关注一些热门股票代码，包括埃森哲和辉瑞。稍后为您播报。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。马上回来。今年它的表现不佳，已经下跌了大约50%。该公司今天发布了业绩，分析师表示，其中并没有什么能让他们放心，认为咨询行业不会受到人工智能崛起的威胁。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Coming up, we'll check in on some of our top trending tickers, including Accenture and Pfizer. That's next. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. Some weak performance this year, already down about 50% going into this. The company out with its numbers today. And analysts saying there's not necessarily anything in here to reassure them that consulting as an industry is not threatened by the rise of AI.
公司的投资者预测、公司预测、公司预测以及公司对本季度收入的预测都低于分析师的预期。公司还表示，上季度的新订单下降了2%。与此同时，公司宣布了一项收购计划，将以大约42亿美元的企业总价值收购一家网络安全公司，以此在网络安全领域扩展业务。然而，这并未帮助其股价在今天的交易中上涨。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The company's forecast for investors, the company's forecast, the company's forecast, and the company's forecast for current quarter revenue is below what analysts had been anticipating. It also said there was a 2% drop in new bookings for this past quarter. At the same time, the company's announcing an acquisition. It's going to buy a company, which is going to buy a company, which is a cybersecurity company for a total enterprise value of about $4.2 billion, so expanding its reach in the cybersecurity side of the house, but not helping the shares in today's session.
我们也在关注辉瑞公司。辉瑞的一位财务官将于8月15日离职。辉瑞表示这是因为他在消费品领域获得了一个职业机会。在寻找替代人选期间，他们将任命一位内部候选人作为临时首席财务官。不过，分析师们正在质疑这是否会在市场期待辉瑞可能推出新的减肥药的关键时刻影响公司的前景。因此，在我们观察这只股票时，这点需要注意。我也在我们的AlphaSpace平台上关注它，因为过去一年左右，辉瑞的股价并没有太大变化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
We're also watching Pfizer, which is a company. A financial officer is going to be leaving as of August 15th. Pfizer says that is because of a professional opportunity in consumer goods. And they're appointing an internal candidate as interim CFO while they look for a replacement here. But analysts are questioning whether this is going to affect the outlook for the company at a time when the market is awaiting new obesity drugs, potentially, from Pfizer. So that's something to keep an eye on here as we're watching that stock. I'm also keeping an eye on it on our AlphaSpace platform here as we see that the stock is, you know, not done a heck of a lot over the past year or so.
这些辉瑞股票，如你所见，今年变化不大，情况相似。而在我屏幕的右侧，我查看了这只股票的一些基本面信息。在页面底部，可以看到一年的目标估值，这是追踪该公司的分析师的平均估计，29.19。这个估值的范围是24到36。相比当前交易价格，大约在25左右。因此，分析师预测辉瑞有一定的上涨空间，尽管它近期表现有些挣扎。我们会继续关注，看看是否有任何首席财务官（CFO）的消息出现会改变这一状况，以及关于任何肥胖药物的新闻。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But those Pfizer shares, as you can see, not much change this year is a similar story. And then on the right side of my screen, I'm looking at sort of some of the fundamentals for the stock in particular. Towards the bottom, looking at the one-year target estimate, so average estimate of analysts who track the company, 29.19 here. The range is from 24 to 36. And how that compares with where the stock is trading right now, it's right around $25. So analysts are predicting some upside here for Pfizer, even as it has been struggling a bit. So we'll keep watching that, see if there's any upcoming CFO news that turns around, as well as news about any obesity drugs.
最后，我们也在关注克罗格这家连锁超市的股票，因为他们即将公布财报。在投资者看来，公司的前景不太理想。公司称，第二季度的调整后收益将大致与去年同期持平。第二季度的销售额与第一季度相比变化不大。公司表示，由于消费者的压力持续存在，通货膨胀导致的成本可能在今年有所上升。公司首席执行官格雷格·福兰表示，我们不需要成为价格最低的零售商，我们需要变得更具竞争力，更加稳定，并让顾客更容易理解我们的产品和服务。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And then finally, we are watching shares of Kroger as well, the grocery store chain coming out with its earnings. And the forecast leaving something to be desired in the eyes of investors. Second quarter adjusted earnings, the company says, going to be about in line with what they were a year earlier. Sales in the second quarter, going to be little change compared with the first quarter. As consumers, it says, continue to be under pressure. Inflation input costs going to potentially rise as the year goes on. And Greg Foran, the CEO of the company, says, we do not need to be the lowest price retailer. We need to be more competitive, more consistent, and easier for customers to understand.
在电话会议中发表这些评论时，那些股票暴跌了6%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Making those comments on the conference call as those shares fall by 6%.
在我们进入休息时间之前，我们来看一下纽约市中心的现场画面。成千上万的尼克斯球迷聚集在那里，观看他们心爱的纽约尼克斯队，并在游行中为他们庆祝。你可以看到一些尼克斯队员和球迷聚集在巴士上，沿着游行路线前进。纽约市在这个星期四的早晨被堵得水泄不通，充满了兴奋与欢呼。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And as we head to break, we want to take a look at a live shot of downtown New York. And that's where thousands, thousands upon thousands of Knicks fans have gathered to watch their New York Knicks and celebrate them on the parade there. And you can see some of the Knicks and Knicks fans gathered on the buses there making their way down the parade route. But New York City jammed up and very excited on this Thursday morning.
更多的市场催化剂即将到来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst, coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up. More Market Catalyst coming up.
谢谢你。非常感谢。由衷地感激。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
目前的政策非常宽松，而联邦基金利率低于政策规则所指示的水平。那么，为什么我们的基线预测现在没有加息呢？我们想听取凯文·沃什的意见，想更多地了解新的美联储反应机制，因此我们需要把这些纳入我们的思考。同时，能源价格的下降也在降低通胀预期。在接下来的几个月中，整体通胀数据至少应该看起来更乐观一些。但从昨天的情况来看，很明显存在加息风险，美联储今年可能需要加息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
are very easy, and the Fed funds rate is below where policy rules would tell them that they should be. Now, why don't we have hikes in our baseline outlook at this point? We wanted to hear from Kevin Warsh, we wanted to learn more about the new Fed's reaction function, so we'll have to internalize that into how we're thinking about things. But also, you have a decline in energy prices that's taking place that is bringing down inflation expectations. Headline inflation over the next several months at least should look a little bit more positive. But I think it's clear from yesterday the risks are that the Fed may need to raise rates this year.
当你看到他成立的那些不同的工作小组时，很明显他想以相当戏剧化的方式改变美联储，对吧？至少从语气上感觉，他的声明变短了，说的话也少得多，但他成立了这些工作小组。如果你是决策者，你认为美联储最紧迫需要解决的问题是什么？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
When you look at those various task forces that he created to attack, I mean, it's clear he wants to change up the Fed, right? In pretty dramatic fashion, it feels like at least tonally, the statement was shorter, he said much less, much less, he's come out with these task forces. What do you think that most, if you were making the decisions here, what do you think most urgently needs to be tackled at the Fed?
是的，我觉得你说得很对。我认为这份声明从大约340个字减少到了接近130个字。它看起来更像是1990年代到2000年代初格林斯潘时代的声明。我们失去了“前瞻指引”。沃什一直认为，“前瞻指引”对美联储来说实际上并不是一件好事。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Yeah, I think you're exactly right. I think the statement went from about 340 words down to, I think, close to 130 words. It looked much more like a Greenspanian statement from the 1990s, early 2000s. We've lost forward guidance. Warsh has been very consistent on the view that forward guidance is not actually a positive thing for the Fed to be giving.
我会关注两个我认为最有趣和最紧迫、最有影响力的小组课题之一。一个是关于沟通的。我认为，他们会审视各自的沟通策略，包括经济预测总结和展示联邦基金利率预期的“点阵图”。我的基本预期是，点阵图可能会被取消，我们可能不会再看到各个点，也不会再把重点放在这些预测的中位数上，但我们会继续获得经济预测的总结。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I would focus on two of the task force that I think are most interesting and urgent and will have most impact. One is on communications. There, I think they'll be looking at their various communication strategies, including the summary of economic projections and the dot plot, which gives the projections for the Fed funds rate. My baseline expectation would be that the dot plot goes away, that we don't see the individual dots, that we don't have this focus on the median of those projections, but that we continue to get the summary of economic projections.
第二点，我认为最有趣和最具影响力的方面在于资产负债表。他们将成立一个专注于资产负债表的特别小组，研究何时以及在多大程度上能够减少资产负债表的规模，甚至是否应该进行缩减。从长期来看，Warsh一直关注资产负债表。他认为这是通货膨胀的一个驱动因素，也影响着长期的不平等问题。因此，他倾向于缩小资产负债表的规模。在接下来的几周内，我们将进一步了解他们计划如何实现这一目标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The second, I think, most interesting and impactful will be on the balance sheet. They're going to have a task force focused on the balance sheet, both when and by how much might they be able to reduce the size of the balance sheet, and even if they should. We know from kind of a long-term perspective, Warsh has been focused on the balance sheet. He thinks it is a driver of inflation. He thinks it's a driver of inequality over time, and so his preference is to reduce the size of the balance sheet. We will learn more about how they'll do that over the next several weeks.
你认为取消点阵图是正确的决定吗？我认为是对的。我觉得市场过于关注和强调点阵图的中位数，这种做法不太合适。我认为点阵图只是美联储的一个非常不精确的预测，但市场却非常重视它。美联储开始提供自己的联邦基金利率预测时，展示的是预测的集中趋势和范围，而不是单个的点。我认为他们应该回归到这种方式。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Do you think it's the right decision to get rid of the dot plot? I do. I think the market is over-focused and emphasized and coalesces around the median dot in an inappropriate way. I think that that's a very imprecise forecast from the Fed and projections, but the market focuses on it significantly. When the Fed began to introduce their own Fed funds rate projections, what they showed was a central tendency and a range for those projections, rather than the individual dots. And I think it would make a lot of sense for them to go back to that formulation.
这将为我们、市场、家庭、企业提供一个关于政策走向的整体视图，而不会因为对中位数过于精确而带来负面影响。因此，我认为如果我们达到这个状态，从沟通的角度来看，将是一个积极的结果。毕竟，这并不像昨天情况发生了剧烈变化，对吧？从鲍威尔的美联储到新的美联储主席，他不想提供前瞻性指引，但他同时也拒绝提供框架，这之间的变化并不是很突然。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It would give us, the market, households, businesses, a view on the overall trajectory of where policy would go, but without the downfall of being overly precise on the median. So I think if that's where we end up, it would actually be a positive outcome from a communications perspective. It's not like the pendulum swung really far yesterday, right, from the Powell Fed, from a lot of communication to very abruptly very little, and understanding that the new Fed chair does not want to provide forward guidance, but he also declined to provide the framework, right?
像，他是怎么想的呢？你知道，他是怎么考虑的？委员会又是怎么想的？你认为这是个错误吗？听起来可能等到特别工作组完成任务后我们才能知道，但是你认为不提前提供信息、做出这种突如其来的改变是个错误吗？是的，看，凯文·沃什在美联储承诺在某些方面进行制度变革，其中一个承诺的变革就是在沟通方面，而我们确实看到了这一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Like, how is he even thinking about it? How is he thinking, you know, how is the committee thinking about it? And do you think that's a mistake? It sounds like maybe we'll get it when the task force work is done, but do you think it's a mistake to not provide, to make this such an abrupt change? Yeah, look, Kevin Warsh promised regime change at the Fed in one area that he promised that regime change was in communications, and we got exactly that.
我认为他说得对，在某些时候，也许大多数时候，前瞻指引并没有好处。我们知道，前瞻指引在某些情况下是有益的，比如当美联储受困于零利率下限时，通过承诺在一段时间内不加息，可能会稍微缓解金融环境。但是很多时候，情况并非如此，美联储未必比市场或外部经济学家知道得更多，因此他们可能不想过度传达信息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think he's right to say that at certain points in time, and maybe most of the time, forward guidance is not beneficial. We know that it can be beneficial, for example, when the Fed is stuck at the zero-lar bound, and you might want to ease financial conditions a little bit more by committing to not raising rates over time. But oftentimes, it's not the case that the Fed knows a tremendous amount more than what markets or outside economists might know, and so they probably don't want to over-communicate.
我认为你确实指出了一个关键问题：如果他们不再提供前瞻性指引，也不向我们透露太多关于其反应机制的信息，那么他们将如何根据新数据做出调整呢？这对于市场和像我这样的经济学家来说，留下了一些不确定性，使得我们更难预测美联储的动向。这可能会导致市场波动性增加，可能需要在风险资产和债券市场中建立更高的风险溢价，因此整体收益率可能会上升。不过，这不是过去两天市场的反应。我认为，由于美联储致力于维护物价稳定，市场在收益率曲线的长端降低了利率。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I think you highlight the real issue, though, is if they're not going to be providing forward guidance, and they're also not going to be giving us really much information about their reaction function, how will they change in response to incoming data? That leaves a void for markets, and economists like myself, it makes it more difficult for us to predict where the Fed is going to go. Now, the implications for that might be greater volatility in markets. It might be that you need to build in greater risk premium on risk assets, but also in bond markets, so yields overall might be higher. Now, that's not the reaction that we've gotten over the past two days. I think the market, at the long end of the curve, has taken down interest rates as the Fed is committed to price stability.
从长期来看，如果美联储持续减少前瞻指引，这可能会对市场产生一些影响，这是我会关注的重点之一。Matt，在昨天会议前后，我一直在思考一个问题，希望我们还有时间讨论一下，虽然这个问题比较棘手，但美联储在当前的重要性如何？考虑到现代经济以及它在市场中的重要性，你如何看待这个问题？我认为美联储对经济和市场至关重要。他们通过联邦基金利率设定了基本的经济条件，这个利率影响了收益率曲线，是您在考虑股票、信贷和债券市场等风险资产市场时的关键因素。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But over the longer term, if the Fed is sustainably pulling back from forward guidance, those could be some of the market implications that I would look for. Matt, something I'm sort of thinking about before and then after the meeting yesterday, and hopefully we, I don't know if we have enough time to get into this, it's a pretty thorny issue, but how important is the Fed at this point? Given our modern economy, given its importance in markets, how do you think about that question? I think the Fed is critical for the economy and for markets. They really set the baseline economic conditions through the Fed funds rate, which percolates out the yield curve, is a key determinant as you think about risk asset markets for equities and credit and bond markets.
所以，我认为美联储至关重要。他们将继续在整体经济、经济影响和市场影响中扮演重要角色。现在，他们执行这种角色的方式显然在发生变化。美联储不再过度沟通，不再承诺他们近期的货币政策方向。这将改变风险资产和债券市场等的反应方式。我认为我们可能需要一段时间来适应这个变化，并观察其具体影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, I think the Fed is critical. And they will continue to remain kind of a critical part of the overall economy and economic impact and market impact. Now, the way in which they're doing that is clearly changing. No longer do you have a Fed that is looking to over-communicate, to guide, to promise where they're going to be heading in the near term with monetary policy. And so, that will change how risk assets and bond markets, et cetera, kind of respond. I think there's probably a period here where we have to learn exactly how that's going to work its way out.
昨天市场出现了一些波动。不过总体来说，我认为美联储对市场和经济仍然至关重要。我相信沃什对此非常清楚。他在昨天的新闻发布会上强调了价格稳定。他多次提到，美联储将在美国解决通胀问题。如果我们能够在不严重削弱劳动力市场的情况下大幅降低通胀，那将是一个理想的结果。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And there was some volatility in the markets yesterday. But overall, the Fed will remain critical, I think, for the markets and the economy. And I think Warsh very clearly understands that. He emphasized yesterday price stability within his press conference. He mentioned that on a number of occasions and said that the Fed is going to fix the inflation problem here in the U.S. That would be a great outcome if we were to be able to bring down inflation substantially in the absence of materially weakening the labor market.
马特，很高兴能和你聊聊。关于这个话题，我本来可以聊更久，但我们就先说到这里。非常感谢你的时间。我很感激。谢谢。这就是《市场催化剂》的全部内容。我是朱莉·海曼。希望大家享受这个长周末。我会在周一回来。谢谢大家。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Matt, good to catch up with you. I could talk for much longer about this, but we've got to leave it there. Thank you so much for your time. Appreciate it. Thank you. That is it for Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. Everybody, enjoy the long weekend. I'll be back on Monday. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.