Tesla Finally Adding More Robotaxis & the SpaceX AI Satellite V1: Running the Numbers ⚡️
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以下是视频内容的中文翻译，涵盖了所有讨论的新闻项目：
**主持人免责声明：** 尽管迪伦·卢米斯（Dylan Loomis）患有严重过敏，他仍在主持《电动化》（Electrified）节目。
**特斯拉机器人出租车与自动驾驶更新：**
* **德克萨斯州机器人出租车VINs：** 德克萨斯州汽车运输公司网站目前列出了59个特斯拉用于其机器人出租车业务的车辆识别码（VINs），两周前这一数字刚超过40个。所有车辆均为Model Y。这表明特斯拉可能正在部署，尽管并非所有车辆都已激活或处于无人监督状态。
* **德克萨斯州投诉：** 一项针对特斯拉的投诉被列出，但已因“无管辖权”而结案。迪伦已根据《公共信息法案》提交了请求以获取更多详细信息。
* **休斯顿Cybercab（赛博出租车）目击事件：** S.E.罗宾逊对休斯顿车场的航拍显示有21辆Cybercab和许多Model Y。迪伦重申，在看到没有方向盘或踏板的Cybercab之前，对它们的部署期望仍然很低。
* **达拉斯Cybercab目击事件：** 一段达拉斯车场的视频显示有数十辆Cybercab排成一列。
* **美国测试范围：** Cybercab目前已在美国大约20个不同的州进行测试。
* **亚利桑那州急救响应计划：** 一份日期为4月24日的文件披露了特斯拉在亚利桑那州的急救响应计划，详细说明了在钱德勒、吉尔伯特、格伦代尔、马里科帕县、梅萨、天堂谷、凤凰城、斯科茨代尔和坦佩（均位于马里科帕县，人口约480万）进行SAE L4级自动驾驶操作的细节。特斯拉的网站上也包含这些计划。
* **亚利桑那州上线预期：** 根据机器人出租车追踪器，凤凰城是亚利桑那州唯一被官方明确提及的城市，这表明它将是该州的首个上线地点，并有望迅速扩展。
* **第一季度时间表未达标：** 距离第一季度幻灯片中设定的在五个不同城市上线的目标只剩下20天，迪伦认为这一目标不太可能实现。
**监督FSD进展：**
* **荷兰安全数据：** 特斯拉报告称，在荷兰道路上，监督FSD比人工驾驶安全三倍多，碰撞次数减少3.5倍。其他指标虽然难以量化，但包括：自动紧急制动事件减少近15倍，急加速减少8.8倍，急刹车减少7.3倍，急转弯减少8倍。
* **公路与非公路安全（荷兰）：** 在高速公路上，FSD安全3.4倍（行驶1660万公里，零碰撞）；在非高速公路上，FSD安全1.6倍（行驶700万公里，发生三次碰撞）。从4月10日到6月5日，FSD在荷兰的总行驶里程达到2360万公里。非高速公路上的碰撞很可能是低速停车场事故。
* **丹麦批准：** 埃隆·马斯克确认，监督FSD已在丹麦获得官方批准，预计将很快推出。
* **欧洲累计批准：** 监督FSD现已在荷兰、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚和丹麦获得批准，覆盖约21.5万辆特斯拉（累计数量，需经AI4/硬件3过滤）。
* **欧盟范围投票展望（TCMV 6月30日）：** 汽车技术委员会（TCMV）6月30日会议议程显示，将“继续讨论”荷兰第39号法案的授权，但未提及投票。迪伦预计不会有投票，因为正式法案通常会在两周前起草并分发。
* **未来欧盟批准：** 下一个可能进行全欧盟范围投票的窗口期将是10月。这意味着监督FSD的批准路径目前可能仍将是逐国进行。欧盟范围的批准可能会推迟到2027年第四季度进行投票，实际软件推出将推迟到2027年初。
* **临时批准风险：** 丹麦一家媒体澄清，目前的批准都是临时性的。如果欧盟委员会拒绝该系统，荷兰的临时批准（以及随后的丹麦批准）将在六个月后失效。如果欧盟正式拒绝FSD，这可能导致所有当前的临时批准失效。欧盟委员会的长期拖延也可能意味着这种逐国批准的零散状态将无限期持续下去。
**特斯拉业务与产品新闻：**
* **美国贸易代表访问：** 美国贸易代表詹姆斯·格里尔（James Greer）本周将访问特斯拉弗里蒙特工厂，作为促进美国再工业化制造之旅的一部分。
* **关税担忧：** 特斯拉此前在2023年3月致信格里尔，警告美国出口商容易受到报复性关税的影响，并强调在国内采购锂电池组件的困难。特斯拉预计将在访问期间重申这些担忧。
* **特斯拉Semi卡车欧洲扩张：** 特斯拉已在德国帕斯多夫（慕尼黑附近）发布了特斯拉Semi卡车业务发展经理的招聘信息，这标志着Semi卡车在欧洲的商业基础工作正在进行。然而，预计最早也要到2027年才能部署/销售。
* **Model 3 后驱版效率：** 埃德蒙兹（Edmunds）在其实际续航测试中，赞扬特斯拉Model 3后轮驱动版是其“效率冠军”。它以393英里的续航里程（+8.3%）超出了EPA的估算（363英里），并且比其EPA评级效率高得多，达到了21.7千瓦时/百英里（4.61英里/千瓦时），而EPA评级为25千瓦时/百英里（4英里/千瓦时），效率高出13.2%。
* **特斯拉车辆寿命：** IC Cars对1.74亿辆汽车进行的一项研究发现，特斯拉达到25万英里的可能性是斯巴鲁的两倍。特斯拉总体排名第六，有4.6%的可能性（与GMC并列），领先于凯迪拉克、梅赛德斯、宝马和保时捷等豪华品牌。在豪华品牌中，特斯拉仅次于雷克萨斯和讴歌，排名第三。
**SpaceX AI-1卫星与星舰讨论：**
* **SpaceX采访：** 埃隆·马斯克和SpaceX首席财务官的两份新一般性采访发布。
* **AI-1卫星描述：** 视频展示了AI-1卫星的图像，突出了其散热器、计算模块和巨大的太阳能电池板。它宽70米（约75码），高20米（约20码）。
* **马斯克的雄心勃勃目标：** SpaceX的目标是到2027年底实现1吉瓦（年化）的轨道人工智能计算能力，迪伦认为这过于乐观。
* **AI-1功率与重量：** 每颗AI-1轨道卫星在峰值时可提供150千瓦（0.15兆瓦）功率，持续/平均功率为120千瓦（0.12兆瓦）。它们重约2吨（4,400磅），与一辆Model Y相当。
* **与Colossus 1对比：** 要匹配一个500兆瓦的数据中心（如Colossus 1），需要3,333颗AI-1卫星（使用峰值功率）或4,000颗卫星（使用持续功率）。
* **星舰V3发射要求：** 星舰V3预计每次飞行可运载100吨（约50颗AI-1卫星）。要将3,333颗AI-1卫星（6,666吨）送入轨道以实现500兆瓦的等效功率，需要67次星舰发射。要达到1吉瓦的年化目标，这意味着大约150次星舰发射（每月超过12次发射）。
* **星舰发射频率挑战：** 星舰在三年内发射了12次（2025年5次，今年因V3升级仅1次），但尚未成功入轨。大多数发射只携带了少量有效载荷；最大载荷为45吨（22个模拟星链单元）。
* **星链V3背景：** 仅有两颗经过改装的星链V2（模拟V3硬件）发射用于隔热罩测试；目前尚无实际的星链V3卫星投入服务。
* **乐观与现实：** 迪伦总结道，考虑到目前的进展，到2027年底实现1吉瓦的目标，需要如此高的星舰发射频率和新工厂的建设，是高度乐观的。
**市场表现与赞助商：**
* **特斯拉股票：** 特斯拉股票收盘价为396.68美元，下跌3%，交易量高于平均水平14%。纳斯达克100指数（NDX）下跌1.5%。
* **赞助商：** Surfshark，重点介绍了他们的新Dowsos VPN协议，该协议具备后量子安全，提供专用加密隧道，速度提高30%，经过独立审计，并包含分流隧道功能。
迪伦希望明天能感觉好些，并感谢他的Patreon支持者。
Here's a comprehensive summary of the video transcription, including every news item discussed:
**Host's Disclaimer:** Dylan Loomis is hosting Electrified despite suffering from severe allergies.
**Tesla Robotaxi & Autonomy Updates:**
* **Texas Robo-taxi VINs:** The Texas Motor Carrier website now lists 59 Tesla VINs for its robo-taxi business, up from just over 40 two weeks ago. All are Model Ys. This indicates potential deployment, though not all are active or unsupervised yet.
* **Texas Complaint:** One complaint against Tesla is listed but closed with "no jurisdiction." Dylan has submitted a Public Information Act request for more details.
* **Houston Cybercab Sightings:** S.E. Robinson's flyover of the Houston lot showed 21 cybercabs and many Model Ys. Dylan reiterates low expectations for cybercab deployment until they are seen without steering wheels or pedals.
* **Dallas Cybercab Sightings:** A video of the Dallas lot revealed dozens of cybercabs lined up.
* **US Testing Reach:** Cybercabs have now been spotted testing in approximately 20 different U.S. states.
* **Arizona First Responder Plan:** A document dated April 24th revealed Tesla's first responder interaction plan for Arizona, detailing SAE Level 4 autonomy operations in Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Maricopa County, Mesa, Paradise Valley, Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe (all within Maricopa County, population ~4.8 million). Tesla's website also contains these plans.
* **Arizona Launch Expectations:** Based on the Robotaxi tracker, Phoenix is the only city officially called out for Arizona, suggesting it will be the first launch location there, with quick expansion hoped for.
* **Q1 Timeline Miss:** With 20 days left to launch in five different cities to meet its Q1 slide deck timeline, Dylan believes this goal is unlikely.
**Supervised FSD Developments:**
* **Netherlands Safety Data:** Tesla reported that supervised FSD is over three times safer than manual driving on Dutch roads, with 3.5 times fewer collisions. Other metrics, though tough to quantify, include: nearly 15 times fewer automatic emergency braking events, 8.8 times less harsh acceleration, 7.3 times less harsh braking, and 8 times fewer hard swerves.
* **Highway vs. Non-Highway Safety (Netherlands):** FSD was 3.4 times safer on highways (16.6 million km, zero collisions) and 1.6 times safer on non-highway roads (7 million km, three collisions). Total FSD kilometers in the Netherlands from April 10th to June 5th reached 23.6 million. Non-highway collisions are likely low-speed parking lot incidents.
* **Denmark Approval:** Elon Musk confirmed that supervised FSD has been officially approved in Denmark, with rollout expected soon.
* **Cumulative European Approvals:** Supervised FSD is now approved in the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, and Denmark, covering roughly 215,000 Teslas (cumulative, needing AI4/Hardware 3 filtering).
* **EU-Wide Vote Outlook (TCMV June 30th):** The agenda for the Technical Committee of Motor Vehicles (TCMV) meeting on June 30th shows "continuation of discussions" for the Netherlands' Act 39 authorization but no mention of a vote. Dylan expects no vote, as a formal act would typically be drafted and circulated two weeks prior.
* **Future EU Approval:** The next possible window for a block-wide vote would be October. This means the path to approval for supervised FSD will likely remain country-by-country for now. EU-wide approval might be delayed until Q4 2027 for the vote, pushing actual software rollout into early 2027.
* **Provisional Approval Risks:** An outlet in Denmark clarified that current approvals are provisional. If the EU Commission rejects the system, the Dutch provisional approval (and subsequently, Denmark's) would become invalid after six months. This could lead to all current provisional approvals lapsing if the EU formally rejects FSD. A prolonged delay by the EU Commission could also mean the country-by-country patchwork continues indefinitely.
**Tesla Business & Product News:**
* **US Trade Representative Visit:** James Greer, the US Trade Representative, is scheduled to visit Tesla's Fremont factory this week as part of a manufacturing tour promoting US re-industrialization.
* **Tariff Concerns:** Tesla previously submitted a letter to Greer in March 2023, warning that US exporters are vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs and highlighting difficulties in sourcing lithium battery components domestically. Tesla is expected to reiterate these concerns during the visit.
* **Tesla Semi European Expansion:** Tesla has posted a job listing for a Business Development Manager for the Tesla Semi in Parsdorf (near Munich), Germany, signaling commercial groundwork for the Semi in Europe. However, deployment/sales are not expected until 2027 at the earliest.
* **Model 3 RWD Efficiency:** Edmunds lauded the Tesla Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive as the "efficiency champ" in their real-world range test. It exceeded its EPA range estimate (363 miles) by going 393 miles (+8.3%) and was significantly more efficient than its EPA rating, achieving 21.7 kWh/100 miles (4.61 miles/kWh) compared to 25 kWh/100 miles (4 miles/kWh), making it 13.2% more efficient.
* **Tesla Vehicle Longevity:** A study by IC Cars covering 174 million vehicles found that Teslas are twice as likely to reach 250,000 miles as Subarus. Tesla ranked 6th overall with a 4.6% chance (tied with GMC), ahead of luxury brands like Cadillac, Mercedes, BMW, and Porsche. Among luxury brands, Tesla was third behind Lexus and Acura.
**SpaceX AI-1 Satellite & Starship Discussion:**
* **SpaceX Interviews:** Two new general interviews with Elon Musk and the CFO of SpaceX were released.
* **AI-1 Satellite Description:** An image of the AI-1 satellite was shown, highlighting its radiators, compute module, and massive solar arrays. It measures 70 meters across (roughly 75 yards) and 20 meters tall (roughly 20 yards).
* **Elon's Ambitious Target:** SpaceX is targeting one gigawatt of orbital AI compute (annualized) by the end of 2027, which Dylan views as overly optimistic.
* **AI-1 Power & Weight:** Each AI-1 orbital satellite provides 150 kilowatts (0.15 megawatts) at peak power, or 120 kilowatts (0.12 megawatts) sustained/average. They weigh about 2 tons (4,400 lbs), comparable to a Model Y.
* **Comparison to Colossus 1:** To match a 500-megawatt data center (like Colossus 1), it would require 3,333 AI-1 satellites (using peak power) or 4,000 satellites (using sustained power).
* **Starship V3 Launch Requirements:** Starship V3 is projected to carry 100 tons (about 50 AI-1 satellites) per trip. To put 3,333 AI-1 satellites (6,666 tons) into orbit for a 500 MW equivalent, it would require 67 Starship launches. To reach 1 gigawatt annualized, this would mean roughly 150 Starship launches (>12 launches per month).
* **Starship Launch Cadence Challenges:** Starship has launched 12 times in three years (5 times in 2025, 1 time this year due to V3 upgrades) and has not yet reached orbit. Most launches carried minimal payloads; the max was 45 tons (22 simulated Starlink units).
* **Starlink V3 Context:** Only two modified Starlink V2s (simulating V3 hardware) have launched for heat shield testing; zero actual Starlink V3 satellites are operating for service.
* **Optimism vs. Reality:** Dylan concludes that the target of 1 gigawatt by end of 2027, requiring such a high Starship launch cadence and new factory build-out, is highly optimistic given current progress.
**Market Performance & Sponsor:**
* **Tesla Stock:** Tesla stock closed the day at $396.68, down 3%, with 14% above-average volume. The NDX was down 1.5%.
* **Sponsor:** Surfshark, highlighting their new Dowsos VPN protocol, which is post-quantum secure, offers dedicated encrypted tunnels, is 30% faster, independently audited, and includes split-tunneling.
Dylan hopes to feel better by tomorrow and thanks his Patreon supporters.
摘要
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===================================
Tesla First Responder Plan: https://www.tesla.com/firstresponders/robotaxi
Elon SpaceX Interview: https://x.com/SpaceX/status/2064099405758906727
Gavin and CFO Interview: https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2064131659939950943
===================================
00:00 - Tesla
4:56 - Quantum Computing
6:30 - Tesla
13:11 - SpaceX AI1 Satellite
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GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
欢迎来到Electrified。我是你的主持人，Dylan Loomis。先提醒一下，我的过敏症状现在很严重。它昨天让我很不舒服，所以如果今天听起来有点不对劲，就是这个原因。但是最近还是有一些令人兴奋的发展，我想和大家聊一聊。访问德克萨斯机动车运营商网站，查看特斯拉的无人出租车业务，我们现在看到已有59个车辆识别码（VIN）列出，之前才刚刚超过40，而这仅仅是在大约两周前。此外，目前这些车辆仍然全部是Model Y。这并不意味着这59辆车都已经在车队中运作，也不代表其中59辆都没有监管，但理论上说，如果特斯拉愿意，现在可以部署这么多辆车。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Loomis. Just a warning, my allergies are killing me right now. It's what put me down yesterday, so if I sound a little off today, that's why. But there are some exciting developments taking place that I want to talk about. Heading to the Texas Motor Carrier website, looking at Tesla's robo-taxi business, we now have 59 VINs listed, which is up from just over 40, and that was only about two weeks ago. And yes, they're still currently all Model Ys. This does not mean that all 59 vehicles are currently active in the fleet, nor does it indicate that 59 of them are unsupervised, but theoretically, that's how many Tesla could deploy if it chose to right now.
当然，如果他们没有计划很快在该服务中推出这些车辆，他们就不会提交另外四辆车。目前有一项针对特斯拉的投诉，但状态显示已关闭，无管辖权。我查找了有关该投诉的更多信息，但目前还没有公开的信息，不过我提交了一份公共信息法请求，如果有反馈，我会告知大家。S.E. Robinson 本周分享了一个对德克萨斯州休斯顿停车场的航拍。从这个角度看，我数到了21辆电动出租车，但似乎有很多Model Y正在准备部署。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And of course, they wouldn't submit four more vehicles if they didn't have plans on launching those vehicles in the service soon. There is now one complaint listed against Tesla, but the status is closed, no jurisdiction. I looked for more information about that complaint, but nothing is public yet, but I did submit a Public Information Act request, so I'll let you guys know if I hear back. S.E. Robinson shared this flyover of the Houston lot in Texas this week. And from this angle, I counted 21 cybercabs, but there are plenty of Model Ys seemingly getting ready to be deployed.
正如我之前所说，除非我们看到没有方向盘和踏板的网络出租车投入使用，否则我们对网络出租车的部署不应抱太高期望。近日，有人在网上分享了一段视频，显示在达拉斯的一处场地上排列着几十辆网络出租车。而且据我们所知，这款网络出租车目前已在美国约20个州进行测试。我还看到斯宾塞分享了一份文件，是特斯拉为亚利桑那州制定的应急响应计划，文件日期是今年的4月24日。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And as I've been saying, until we see a cybercab on site without a steering wheel and without pedals, I think we should keep our expectations low for cybercab deployment. And this video was shared of the lot in Dallas. And just from this one angle, you can now see dozens of cybercabs lined up in that lot. And as we know, the cybercab has now been spotted testing in around 20 different U.S. states. And I saw Spencer share this document. It was dated April 24th earlier this year, but it's Tesla's first responder interaction plan for Arizona.
文件中说，机器人出租车服务的设计范围可能包括以下地区，这些地区在运行于S.A.E. 4级自动驾驶时：钱德勒、吉尔伯特、格兰代尔、马里科帕县、梅萨、天堂谷、凤凰城、斯科茨代尔和坦佩。这么列出城市名字有点奇怪，因为这些城市实际都在马里科帕县内。所以从马里科帕县总体来看，该县人口大约有480万。在地图上展示时，红色轮廓线的是马里科帕县。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the filing says the design domain of the robotaxi service may include the following areas while operating at S.A.E. Level 4 autonomy: Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Maricopa County, Mesa, Paradise Valley, Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Tempe. It's a little odd they would list the cities like this, but all of these cities are actually inside of Maricopa County. So if we just zoom out for Maricopa, that has a population of about 4.8 million people. And just to show you on a map, the red outline is Maricopa County.
放大一点，你会发现钱德勒、吉尔伯特、梅萨、斯科茨代尔、格伦代尔等地。有趣的是，我毕业于宾夕法尼亚州立大学后，为了爱德华·琼斯的培训，在亚利桑那州的钱德勒住了一年。今天我不打算深入讨论，但在特斯拉的网站上，你实际上可以找到特斯拉的紧急响应计划。如果你想查看，可以点击下方链接到这篇博文。根据Robotaxi跟踪器显示，特斯拉在亚利桑那州唯一正式提到的城市是菲尼克斯。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And zooming in a bit, you will find Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, Scottsdale, Glendale, and so on. Fun fact, I actually lived in Chandler, Arizona for one year after graduating from Penn State for my Edward Jones training. And I'm not going to get into it today, but on Tesla's website, you can actually find Tesla's first responder plans. So I'll have this blog post linked below if you want to check it out. And looking at the Robotaxi tracker, the only city in Arizona Tesla has officially called out is Phoenix.
所以我预计在亚利桑那州的首次发射会如期进行，并希望之后能快速扩展。但是，特斯拉现在只有20天时间在五个不同城市进行发射，以达到其在第一季度演示报告中设定的时间表。因此，我想我们大多数人都会同意，目前这个时间表看起来不太乐观。 转向特斯拉的自动驾驶系统，在过去的两个月内，该系统在荷兰道路上的安全性超过手动驾驶，发生碰撞的概率比荷兰公共道路上的手动驾驶低3.5倍。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I would expect the first launch in Arizona to be there with hopefully quick expansion thereafter. But we are now down to 20 days for Tesla to launch in five different cities to hit the timelines it put in its slide deck from Q1. So I think most of us would agree that timeline is not looking very good right now. Shifting to supervised FSD, Tesla said in the last two months, it's been over three times safer than manual driving on Dutch roads, with 3.5 times fewer collisions on Netherlands public roads.
有些数据我不得不承认很难进行量化。他们说，自动紧急制动事件减少了将近15倍，急加速减少了8.8倍，急刹车减少了7.3倍，而急转弯减少了8倍。仔细查看详细信息，特斯拉表示，在高速公路上，他们的全自动驾驶（FSD）系统行驶了1660万公里，没有发生碰撞，比传统驾驶安全3.4倍。然后，他们将这一数据与配备主动安全功能的手动驾驶进行了比较。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And some data that I'll have to admit would be tough to quantify. They said nearly 15 times fewer automatic emergency braking events, 8.8 times less harsh acceleration, 7.3 times less harsh braking, and 8 times fewer hard swerves. And zooming in on the fine print, Tesla says 3.4 times safer on the highway where FSD has done 16.6 million kilometers and zero collisions. And they then give a comparison with manual driving with active safety features.
他们还表示，在非高速公路道路上，FSD系统的安全性要高出1.6倍，FSD已经在这些道路上行驶了700万公里，并发生了三起碰撞。这意味着从4月10日到6月5日间，FSD在荷兰的行驶里程达到2360万公里。如果它在荷兰的表现与在美国相似，那么在非高速公路上的这三起碰撞可能都是低速停车场类型的事故。不过，抛开这些数字不谈，正如Elon今天所说，FSD在监管下现已获得丹麦的官方批准。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And they also say it's 1.6 times safer on non-highway roads where FSD has done 7 million kilometers and there's been three collisions. So that would imply that FSD has now done 23.6 million kilometers in the Netherlands from April 10th to June 5th. And if it's anything like Tesla's FSD performance in the States, those three collisions on non-highway roads are likely low-speed parking lot type behaviors. But numbers aside, as Elon said today, FSD supervised has now been officially approved in Denmark.
发布将很快开始。正如Ashok所说，目前在荷兰、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚和丹麦，受监管的FSD（全自动驾驶）已经获得官方批准。在这四个国家中，上路的特斯拉大约有215,000辆。这是一个累积的数据，当然，大多数车辆集中在荷兰和丹麦。当然，从中还需要排除AI4和硬件3版本的车辆。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And the rollout will begin soon. As Ashok said, that's now the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, and Denmark, where supervised FSD has officially been approved. And across these four countries, that's roughly somewhere in the neighborhood of about 215,000 Teslas active on the roads. And yes, that would be a cumulative figure. With, of course, the majority of those vehicles being in the Netherlands and Denmark. And of course, from there, you'd have to filter out AI4 and Hardware 3.
但是，正如我们所知，每当有新的国家批准（某种技术或产品）时，就会开始产生实际使用的连锁反应。我们总有一天需要讨论量子计算。而每当你听说有技术上的飞跃时，它实际上威胁到的是保护你在线活动的加密技术。不过，值得庆幸的是，这个视频的赞助商Surfshark刚刚推出了一种专门为解决这一问题而设计的产品，叫做Dowsos，它是Surfshark首个自主研发的VPN协议。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But as we know, each new country with approval will start the butts-in-seats ripple effect. There will come a time when we need to have some conversations about quantum computing. And anytime you hear about a leap in the technology, what it's actually threatening is the encryption that protects nearly everything you do online. But thankfully, Surfshark, the sponsor of this video, just launched something built specifically for that problem. It's called Dowsos, and it's Surfshark's first proprietary VPN protocol.
市面上的几乎所有VPN都使用WireGuard或OpenVPN等协议，这些协议最初是为企业使用而开发的，后来被改为适合消费者使用。它们将连接到同一服务器的所有用户通过一个共享的隧道进行传输。但是，Dowsos是从零开始为个人用户打造的，每次会话都分配一个专用的加密隧道，而不是让用户置于共享池中。它还具备量子后安全性，这意味着它采用新型加密标准，能够抵御未来可能破解现有加密方式的量子计算机。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Almost every VPN on the market runs on protocols like WireGuard or OpenVPN, which were originally built for enterprise use and then were adapted for consumers. They route everyone connected to a server through one shared tunnel. But Dowsos was built from scratch for individual users, so it assigned a dedicated encrypted tunnel to each session instead of putting you in the shared pool. It's also post-quantum secure, meaning it uses the new encryption standards designed to hold up against quantum computers that could eventually break today's encryption.
Surfshark声称它比当前的行业标准协议快30%，并经过Cure 53的独立审核，没有发现重大或高危问题。如果你是高级用户，Surfshark的分流功能可以让你选择特定的应用程序或网站通过VPN连接，而其它的不需要。正如我们对Surfshark的期待，这些功能都可以在一个账户上运行，并支持不限数量的设备，方便全家使用。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Surfshark says it's up to 30% faster than the current industry standard protocols, and it was independently audited by Cure 53 with no critical or high severity issues found. And if any of you are power users, Surfshark's bypasser feature lets you split tunnel, so you can pick exactly which apps or sites route through the VPN and which don't. And as we can expect from Surfshark, all of this runs on one account across an unlimited number of devices for your whole family.
如果您想支持我在这里的工作，可以访问 surfshark.com/electrified 或在结账时使用代码 electrified，以获得额外四个月的 Surfshark VPN 服务。至于即将于6月30日召开的机动车技术委员会（TCMV）会议的议程，我们正在等待整个欧盟范围内关于受监督的FSD投票。不幸的是，会议记录中提到的只是继续讨论荷兰关于第39号法案授权的请求，该部分预计将持续50分钟。但是，完全没有提到任何投票。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So if you'd like to support the work I do here, you can go to surfshark.com slash electrified or use code electrified at checkout to get four extra months of Surfshark VPN. And the agenda for the upcoming June 30th meeting of the Technical Committee of Motor Vehicles, TCMV, where we're waiting for that broader EU-wide vote on supervised FSD. Unfortunately, all you'll find on the minutes is a continuation of discussions of the request of the Netherlands for that Act 39 authorization, and that's set to last for 50 minutes. But there is no mention whatsoever of a vote.
所以最后会有一个意外的投票吗？我觉得这是有可能的，但我认为正确的预期应该是，6月30日的会议上不会进行投票。坦率地说，我认为出现意外投票的几率几乎为零。通常情况下，需要在投票前两周起草一项法案并送达这些国家，以便他们有正式的文件进行投票，而目前对此完全没有提及。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So could there be a surprise vote at the end? I suppose it's possible, but I think the proper expectation should be that there will be no vote at the meeting on June 30th. And frankly, I think the chances of a surprise vote are really near zero. There would have to be an act that was drafted and given to these countries usually two weeks ahead of time, you know, so they have something official to actually vote on, and there's absolutely zero mention of that.
这意味着下一次可能进行全体投票的时机要等到今年十月的下次会议。因此，遗憾的是，目前看来，对于受监管的FSD（全自动驾驶）的批准唯一的途径可能是逐个国家进行。任何欧盟范围的广泛批准现在可能要等到今年的第四季度。而且这仅仅是投票，实际的软件推广可能会推迟到2027年初。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Which means the next window for a possible block-wide vote would not be until October this year at the next meeting. So unfortunately, right now, it's looking like the only path to approval for supervised FSD will be country by country. Any type of EU-wide broader approval is now likely going to wait until sometime closer to Q4 this year. And that's just for the vote, meaning the actual rollout of the software might now be pushed into early 2027.
重要的是，据丹麦的一家媒体报道，监督下的全自动驾驶系统（FSD）的批准是暂时性的，仅适用于那些选择承认荷兰批准的欧盟国家，目前包括丹麦。但如果这个系统最终要在整个欧盟范围内获得使用许可，就需要得到欧盟委员会的批准。如果获得批准，该系统将成为一种通用的欧盟类型批准，在所有成员国中自动生效。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And importantly, from an outlet in Denmark, they said the approval of supervised FSD is provisional and only applies to the EU countries that choose to recognize the Dutch approval, which now includes Denmark. But if the system is to be finally approved for use throughout the EU, it requires approval from the EU commission. If that happens, the approval will become a common EU-type approval, which is automatically valid in all member states.
如果欧盟委员会否决该系统，那么荷兰的临时批准将在六个月后失效。这也意味着丹麦的批准将失效。受监控的FSD将不再能在欧盟国家市场上出售。因此，如果投票最终失败且欧盟正式否决受监控的FSD，这表示我们目前在所讨论的四个国家中的临时批准都会失效，并在被拒绝后的六个月失去效力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If, however, the EU commission rejects the system, the Dutch provisional approval will become invalid after six months. This will also mean the Danish approval will lapse. Supervised FSD may no longer be marketed or sold in EU countries. So yes, if the vote eventually fails and the EU decides to formally reject supervised FSD, that means the provisional approvals that we have in the four countries we've been talking about so far would all lose that approval and it would lapse six months after that refusal.
当然，每增加一个国家认可荷兰的批准，对于那些已经批准的国家来说，投票失败和正式拒绝就会更加具有破坏性。同时，也有一种可能是，欧盟一直拖延不进行正式投票，这意味着各个国家各自为政的局面可能会无限期继续下去。本周，美国贸易代表詹姆森·格里尔计划访问特斯拉的弗里蒙特工厂。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But of course, with each new country that recognizes the Dutch approval, it would make a failed vote and a formal rejection that much more disruptive for the countries that already have it approved. And there is a world where the EU keeps kicking the can down the road and an official vote is delayed, meaning the patchwork of country by country continues indefinitely. The US trade representative Jameson Greer is scheduled to visit Tesla's Fremont factory this week.
这是作为制造业参观活动的一部分，旨在推动特朗普政府将生产带回美国的努力。参观涵盖了政府在其再工业化信息中重点强调的行业：电动汽车和汽车、柔性电子、无人机和半导体。此外，别忘了，去年三月，政府推行新关税时，特斯拉向贸易办公室的詹姆斯·格里尔递交了一封正式的公开信，作为对不公平贸易行为和非对等安排的审查的一部分。在信中，特斯拉警告说，像它这样的美国出口商容易受到其他国家为回应美国行动而施加的报复性关税的影响。特斯拉表示支持公平贸易，但敦促办公室考虑对美国出口商的下游影响以及国内供应链的限制。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This as part of the manufacturing tour built to promote the Trump administration's push to bring production back to the US. The lineup spans the sectors the administration has placed at the center of its re-industrialization message: EVs and automotive, flexible electronics, drones, and semiconductors. Now separately, don't forget, March of last year, as the administration rolled out new tariffs, Tesla submitted a formal public letter to Jameson Greer as part of the trade office's review of unfair trade practices and non-reciprocal arrangements. In the letter, Tesla warned that US exporters like itself are inherently exposed to retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries in response to US actions. Tesla said it supported fair trade but urged the office to weigh the downstream effects on American exporters and the limits of the domestic supply chain.
当时，特斯拉表示，尽管努力将生产搬回美国，但某些锂电池组件在美国境内仍然难以或无法完全获得。特斯拉认为，贸易行动不应也不必与扩展国内制造的目标相冲突。因此，我相信当Jameson本周访问时，特斯拉会进一步陈述其立场。特斯拉在德国慕尼黑附近的帕斯多夫发布了一则新的招聘信息，寻找一位业务发展经理，负责特斯拉半挂卡车业务。这是一份B2B销售工作，涉及与车队客户对接，配置卡车及其充电系统，并拓展特斯拉半挂卡车在该地区的客户基础。这次招聘显然标志着特斯拉正在为特斯拉半挂卡车在欧洲、尤其是德国，奠定商业基础。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
At the time, Tesla said certain lithium battery components remain difficult or impossible to source entirely within the US despite its on-shoring efforts. Tesla said trade actions should not and need not conflict with the goal of expanding domestic manufacturing. So I'm sure Tesla will continue to plead its case a bit further this week when Jameson visits. Tesla has posted a new job listing for a business development manager for the Tesla Semi based in Parsdorf, just outside Munich, Germany. It's a B2B sales job and involves lining up fleet customers, configuring the trucks and their charging, and expanding Tesla Semi's customer base in the region. The hire is a clear sign Tesla is laying the commercial groundwork for the Tesla Semi in Europe, starting in Germany.
为了设置合理的预期，我们仍可能要到2027年最早才能在欧洲看到特斯拉Semi真正投入使用或销售。另外，如果你错过了这一消息，Edmunds公司——所有公司中最意想不到的一家——称特斯拉Model 3后轮驱动车型在我们的实际续航测试中表现出了最高的能效。这款车不仅在测试中超过了其EPA续航里程的估算值，还成为我们测试过的目前量产的电动车中效率最高的。它的EPA续航估算为363英里，但他们测试的那辆车在满电的情况下行驶了393英里，比官方数据多了30英里，超出8.3%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But just to set proper expectations, we still likely will not see the Tesla Semi actually deployed or sold in Europe until 2027 at the earliest. And just in case you missed it, Edmunds, of all companies, said Tesla's Model 3 rear-wheel drive is the efficiency champ in our real-world range test. The vehicle did more than beat its EPA range estimate in their test. It also became the most efficient EV we've tested that's currently in production. It has an EPA range estimate of 363 miles, but the car they tested went 393 miles on a full charge, 30 miles further than the official figure, or an 8.3% outperformance.
他们表示，更令人印象深刻的数据是，在达到这一性能时消耗的能量是多么少。美国环保署（EPA）给出特斯拉Model 3后驱版每100英里消耗25千瓦时电能，或者每千瓦时行驶4英里。而在他们的测试中，这款车每100英里仅消耗21.7千瓦时，或每千瓦时行驶4.61英里，比EPA估计的效率高出13.2%。他们也提到，Model 3 RWD是一款效率异常高的电动车，而且驾驶体验不错，日常使用起来也很方便。特斯拉北美公司表示，特斯拉达到行驶25万英里的可能性是斯巴鲁的两倍。它没有发动机、无需换油、没有正时链条、没有燃油喷射器，而且整体移动部件更少。不过需要注意的是，这些数据来自IC Cars的一项研究。这项研究涵盖了1.74亿辆汽车，其中丰田位居首位，有17.8%的可能性达到25万英里，雷克萨斯以12.8%紧随其后，本田和讴歌则在前四名中占据剩下的两个席位。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
They said the more impressive figure is how little energy it used to get there. The EPA rates the Model 3 rear-wheel drive at 25 kilowatt-hours per 100 miles, or 4 miles per kilowatt-hour. In their testing, it returned 21.7 kilowatt-hours per 100 miles, or 4.61 miles per kilowatt-hour, making it 13.2% more efficient than its EPA estimate. And they said the Model 3 RWD is an unusually efficient EV that's also nice to drive and easy to live with on a daily basis. Tesla North America said a Tesla is twice as likely to reach 250,000 miles as a Subaru. No engine, no oil changes, no timing chains, no fuel injectors and far fewer moving parts overall. But just so you know, this data is coming from an IC cars study. It covered 174 million vehicles, and Toyota sits at the top with a 17.8% chance of reaching a quarter million miles. Lexus followed at 12.8%, while Honda and Acura rounded out the top four.
他们是仅有的四家超过行业平均水平4.8%的制造商。但特斯拉以令人印象深刻的第六名，与GMC并列，达到25万英里的几率为4.6%。这使得特斯拉领先于凯迪拉克、马自达、斯巴鲁、沃尔沃、奔驰、宝马和保时捷等品牌。而如果只看豪华品牌，特斯拉排在第三，仅次于雷克萨斯和讴歌。一个有趣的事实是，豪华品牌达到25万英里的平均几率为3.2%，而特斯拉再次达到4.6%。在过去的24小时内，有两次新的SpaceX采访，一次是与埃隆·马斯克的对话，另一次是与加文·贝克和SpaceX的首席财务官的对话。采访内容基本以常规为主，但我会在下方提供相关链接。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
They were the only four manufacturers to beat the overall industry average of 4.8%. But Tesla, in an impressive sixth place, ranks alongside GMC with a 4.6% chance of reaching 250,000 miles, which puts Tesla ahead of brands like Cadillac, Mazda, Subaru, Volvo, Mercedes, BMW, and Porsche. And filtering down to only the luxury brands, Tesla came in third behind only Lexus and Acura. And a fun fact, the luxury average chance of hitting 250,000 miles was 3.2%. And again, Tesla came in at 4.6%. There were two new SpaceX interviews over the last 24 hours, one with Elon and the other with Gavin Baker and the CFO of SpaceX. They were both largely general in nature, but I will have them linked below.
由于我今天的声音快要不行了，我想简单介绍一下SpaceX的新AI-1卫星。我不仅想谈谈他们对这个原型版本预测的数字，还想试图解释这些数字实际上意味着什么。最终是为了让我们更好地理解埃隆·马斯克到底有多么雄心勃勃，因为我们都知道他是这样，只是程度不同而已。如果你错过了，这里有一张AI-1卫星的图片。中间是散热器，巧妙地对着阳光，在当中间非常小的是计算设备，然后两边是巨大的太阳能板。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And since my voice is running out of juice for today, I just want to cover SpaceX's new AI-1 satellite. But not just the numbers that they're predicting for this prototype version, but I want to try to contextualize what those numbers would actually mean. And ultimately, to give us all a sense of how overly ambitious Elon is really being here, because we know he is. It's just a question of how much. So if you missed it, here's an image of the AI-1 satellite. You have the radiators here in the middle on a nice edge to the sun. You'd have the actual compute right here, very small in the middle. And then you have the massive solar arrays on either side.
这台在太空中的设备宽度有70米，大约相当于75码，也就是大约四分之三个足球场的长度。它的高度为20米，也就是大约20码。我想将这个AI-1轨道卫星与Colossus进行比较。SpaceX的目标是在明年年底前实现轨道AI计算能力达到每年一吉瓦。并不是说到明年年底他们会部署一吉瓦，因为那绝对不可能实现。这只是到2027年底时的年计算率。不过坦率地说，我认为即便是这个目标也过于乐观。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All the way across, this device in space would be 70 meters or roughly 75 yards. So about three fourths of a football field. And the height would be 20 meters tall, once again, roughly 20 yards. But I wanted to compare this AI-1 orbital satellite versus Colossus. And SpaceX is targeting one gigawatt of orbital AI compute annualized by the end of next year. Not that they'll have one gigawatt deployed by the end of next year, because that's definitely not going to happen. Just an annualized rate by the time 2027 ends. But frankly, I think even that is overly optimistic.
那么，Colossus 1，我们就假设它的功率是500兆瓦。有些文章会说Colossus 1是300兆瓦，但我选择用500来计算，只是为了简化问题。而且，500兆瓦正好是埃隆预计在明年年底前达到的目标功率的一半。SpaceX刚推出的这些AI-1轨道卫星之一，峰值功率是150千瓦，相当于0.15兆瓦。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So Colossus 1, let's just say it's 500 megawatts. And some articles out there will say that Colossus 1 is 300 megawatts, but I wanted to run the math at 500 just to keep things simple. And also because it's cleanly half of what Elon is projecting by the end of next year. One of these AI-1 orbital satellites as SpaceX just debuted is 150 kilowatts at peak power, which is equivalent to 0.15 megawatts.
所以，如果把Colossus 1的耗电量500兆瓦除以每颗AI-1卫星的峰值功率0.15兆瓦，那需要在轨道上放置3,333颗卫星。当然，这个计算是为了达到Colossus 1的功率，使用的是最大值的计算方式。或者，我们可以使用SpaceX提供的持续或平均功率120千瓦来计算，即500兆瓦除以0.12兆瓦，这样需要4,000颗卫星，使用的是平均或持续功率的计算方法。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So if you take the power draw of Colossus 1 at 500 megawatts and divide that by 0.15 megawatts, again, the peak power of each AI-1 satellite, that would require 3,333 satellites in orbit. That, of course, to match the power of Colossus 1, which again is using the peak figures. Or we could use the sustained or the average power SpaceX shared, which is 120 kilowatts. So that would be 500 megawatts divided by 0.12 megawatts, which would require 4,000 satellites, again, using the average or sustained figures.
要与Colossus 1的能量水平相匹配，大约需要3,300到4,000颗AI-1卫星，假设Colossus 1目前的能量是500兆瓦。我们还了解到，AI-1轨道卫星每吨的功率为70千瓦，这意味着每颗卫星的重量大约为2吨，也就是大约4,400磅，大约相当于一辆Model Y汽车的重量。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it would take somewhere between 3,300 and 4,000 of these AI-1 satellites to match the power figures of Colossus 1, assuming it's currently at 500 megawatts. We were also told the AI-1 orbital satellite will be 70 kilowatts per ton, which tells us that each satellite is going to weigh in the neighborhood of 2 tons, which is roughly 4,400 pounds or roughly the equivalent of a Model Y.
现在，根据时间推移，SpaceX预计星际飞船V3每次飞行可以运载大约100吨，这意味着每次发射可以携带大约50颗AI-1卫星。因此，要达到500兆瓦的数据中心容量，假设需要3,333颗AI卫星，用这个数量乘以每颗卫星2吨的重量，总计就是6,666吨，这就是我们计算的最高数值。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, in time, this is a projection SpaceX is saying Starship V3 can carry around 100 tons per trip, which would mean it can take about 50 of these AI-1 satellites per launch. So to match a 500 megawatt data center using the lower range, 3,333 AI satellites, you would take that number of satellites times two tons each to get 6,666 tons, which again is that peak figure.
然后你需要将所需的吨数除以Starship V3每次发射100吨的运载能力，这意味着需要进行67次Starship发射来将超过3,300颗卫星送入轨道，才能与一个500兆瓦的数据中心匹配。然后在计算过程中使用平均或持续功率数据。我刚刚整理了一下计算，实际上需要83次Starship发射。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Then you would take that number of tons divided by 100 tons per launch on Starship V3, meaning you would need 67 Starship launches to get those over 3,300 satellites into orbit and to match a 500 megawatt data center. Then running the math using the average or sustained power figures. And I did just clean up the math here so it would actually be 83 Starship launches.
以下是内容的简化中文翻译：
首先，有些事情值得考虑。SpaceX 目前正在建设制造这些卫星设备的工厂。因此，第一，建成这些工厂需要多长时间？第二，他们每天能够生产多少颗卫星？这些问题我们现在还无法回答。到目前为止，Starship 的发射频率是这样的：在 2025 年总共发射了五次，而今年到目前为止只发射了一次。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, some things to consider. SpaceX is currently building out the factory that's going to build out all of this satellite hardware. So number one, how long is it going to take for those factories to be built out? And then two, how many satellites will they be able to produce each day? Questions we just cannot answer right now. To date, the Starship launch cadence. It launched five times for all of 2025 and one time so far this year.
当然，今年数字较低的原因是因为所有针对V3的升级。但从更广的角度看，Starship在三年内已经飞行了12次，而且记住，它还没有进入轨道。到目前为止，大多数Starship的发射只携带了很少的有效载荷。最大的一次是第12次发射，当时它携带了45吨的有效载荷。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Of course, the reason the number this year is lower is because of all of the upgrades for V3. But zooming out, Starship has flown 12 times in three years, and remember, it has not yet reached orbit. To date, most of these Starship launches have carried a minimal payload. The max payload on a launch was launch number 12, where it took 45 tons.
在第12次发射中，我说的45吨是因为他们有22个模拟的星链单元。每个大约2吨，所以得出了这个数字。到目前为止，实际上只有两颗星链V3卫星被发射过，但这其实只是为了拍摄隔热罩的照片，而且这个是在第12次飞行中进行的。值得注意的是，这实际上是星链V2版本，只是经过修改以模拟V3硬件的样子。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And where I'm getting that 45 tons for launch 12 was they had 22 of these simulated Starlink units. So at roughly two tons each, that's where that comes from. And so far, only two Starlink V3 satellites have actually launched, but it was really just to take photos of the heat shield, and that happened on flight 12. And an important technical note, these were actually Starlink V2s that were just modified to simulate what the V3 hardware will be like.
因此，实际用于Starlink服务的Starlink V3卫星数量目前仍然是零。而Nick Pattain制作了这张图片，仅仅是为了展示AI-1卫星与Starlink V3的大小对比。是的，AI-1稍微大一些，但与Starlink V3相比，尺寸差异并不是特别大。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the number of Starlink V3 satellites that are actually operating for Starlink service is still currently zero. And Nick Pattain put this image together just to show the comparison of this AI-1 satellite and the size of how it would stack up next to a Starlink V3. So yes, AI-1 is slightly bigger, but not totally out of the realm compared to a Starlink V3.
请记住，所有这些计算都是针对一个500兆瓦的数据中心的。要把这个规模翻倍，也就是说达到每年1吉瓦的年化率，星舰需要大约发射150次。换句话说，这意味着每个月要发射超过12次。那么，不妨问问自己，你认为到明年12月星舰会达到这个频率吗？当然，从现在到那时之间有很多事情可能发生，但此时看来，这个目标还是过于乐观。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And remember, all of these calculations are for a 500 megawatt data center. So to double that, Starship would have to launch somewhere in the neighborhood of 150 times, if it wants to hit that annualized rate of 1 gigawatt per year. Said another way, that's over 12 launches every month. So ask yourself, do you think Starship will be doing that by December next year? Sure, a lot can happen between now and then, but at this point, it still feels overly optimistic.
我本来今天还想讲一些其他内容，但我的嗓子不太配合，没办法继续了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I did have some other things I wanted to cover today, but my voice is just not going to allow it.
特斯拉的股票收盘价为396.68美元，下跌了3%，而纳斯达克指数下跌了1.5%。当天的成交量比平均水平高出14%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So Tesla stock closed the day at $396.68, down 3%, while the NDX was down 1.5%. The volume was 14% above the average.
谢谢大家今天的包容。希望我明天会好一些。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thank you all for bearing with me today. Hopefully I'm feeling better by tomorrow.
别忘了，有兴趣的人可以查看下面链接的Surfshark。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Don't forget, check out Surfshark linked below for anybody interested.
谢谢你们一如既往的支持。希望你们都有美好的一天，特别感谢我所有的Patreon支持者。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thank you as always. Hope you all have a wonderful day and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
谢谢你。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Thank you.