Yahoo Finance Live: Daily Market Coverage - May 29, 2026 3PM - 5PM (ET)

发布时间 2026-05-29 21:06:41 来源

Episode 设置

以下是"市场主导"部分新闻和事实的全面总结翻译： --- **一、市场概览与表现 (Jared Blikre & Inez Ferre)** * **市场状况：** 本月收官之际，股市走高，科技股再次领涨。距离收盘还有一个小时。 * **指数表现（盘中/临近收盘）：** * **道琼斯指数：** 今日领涨，上涨约0.6%（六个十分之一百分点），全天从未下跌过，接近盘中高点。 * **纳斯达克指数：** 仅略微上涨，如果能保持住，将再创历史新高。 * **标普500指数：** 涨幅不大，但如果收盘为绿色（上涨），也将创下历史新高。 * **罗素2000指数：** 下跌约0.8%（八个十分之一百分点），远低于昨日收盘纪录。 * **波动性 (VIX)：** 跌至15.38，为一月以来的最低水平。一月份的飙升归因于伊朗战争的头条新闻。当VIX指数下跌时，股市往往会上涨。 * **板块表现：** * **领涨：** 科技股（上涨1.8%）、金融股。 * **下跌（表现不佳）：** 消费必需品、房地产、医疗保健、能源（均为防御性板块）。 * **个股/行业亮点：** * **纳斯达克：** 微软上涨3.5%，美光上涨3%。Alphabet下跌2.5%，特斯拉下跌1%，亚马逊下跌1%，英伟达下跌1%。 * **软件：** “漂亮的上涨局面。” Snowflake上涨13%（稍后财报发布后更新为35%，今日再涨5%），CrowdStrike上涨8%，甲骨文上涨10%，Okta上涨30%，Atlassian上涨15%，ServiceNow上涨14%，Workday上涨12%。许多“亏损股正在反弹”。 * **半导体：** 涨跌互现。美光上涨3%（稍后更新为5%），博通上涨2%（稍后更新为4%），英伟达上涨1%。英特尔下跌5%，德州仪器下跌3%，ARM上涨5%。 * **道琼斯指数：** IBM上涨12%，Salesforce上涨9%（稍后更新为8.5%），波音上涨1%，霍尼韦尔上涨2%，高盛上涨1%。 * **道琼斯指数下跌股：** 强生和沃尔玛下跌超过2%（必需品）。卡特彼勒下跌1%，家得宝下跌1%，默克下跌1%。 * **标普500指数连涨：** 连续九周上涨，这是自2023年12月以来从未出现过的现象。 * **道琼斯交通指数：** 本周上涨4%。 **二、主要市场与地缘政治话题** * **伊朗与石油市场 (Jared Blikre & Inez Ferre)：** * 今日油价下跌。特朗普总统正在对一项延长与伊朗停战的初步协议做出最终决定。 * 特朗普的“红线”：伊朗不得拥有核武器，霍尔木兹海峡必须完全开放。 * 伊朗电视台最初表示反对，随后一名官员发表了鼓舞人心的评论。 * 过去一个月油价下跌了17%，表明市场对达成协议以避免武力行动充满信心。 * 德意志银行指出，如果双方不试图避免冲突，停火就不会持续这么长时间。 * **汽油价格：** 仍处于高位，是一个“痛点”。全国平均价格较上周下降12美分，至约4.39美元。Rebecca Babin认为，如果石油供应不能恢复，汽油价格将达到4.75美元/加仑，策略师甚至谈论如果情况持续，将达到5美元/加仑。新泽西州已达到4.75美元，加利福尼亚州超过6美元。 * **人工智能交易趋势 (Inez Ferre)：** * 最初是窄幅上涨，但现在显示出蔓延的迹象。 * 美光市值突破1万亿美元（当日上涨19%），为标普500指数45点涨幅贡献了18点（数据来自Bespoke Investments）。 * 涨势集中在半导体和科技股。 * 在戴尔、思科（道指表现最佳）、卡特彼勒（电力/能源）和福特（能源投资）中看到了蔓延的迹象。 * 今日早些时候的热门股票是戴尔、IBM和思科，唤起了“1999年的氛围”。 * 策略师希望出现更广泛的上涨，以防止市场回调。 * **Robinhood与散户抱团股 (Jared Blikre)：** * Robinhood (HOOD) 股票因其推出“代理交易”而上涨，该功能允许人工智能交易用户账户。 * HOOD本周上涨21%，是更广泛的散户抱团股活动的一部分。 * Robinhood的股价正在与比特币脱钩，自去年十月以来，两者一直关联。比特币此后大部分时间都在下跌，市值减半。 * 过去63个交易日的关联性比较显示，当比特币下跌时，Robinhood却飙升。 * Robinhood的考验在于，随着其推出新产品，能否保持独立的交易势头。也有消息称，各州对Robinhood上的“特朗普账户”感兴趣。 **三、嘉宾见解** * **Mike Dixon (Verizon研究与量化策略主管)：** * **市场展望：** 认为市场可能会在夏季“熔涨”。 * **季节性：** 过去十年中，六月和七月广阔股指平均上涨5%，夏季交易量清淡提供“顺风”。 * **基本面：** 刚刚结束了近年来表现最好的财报季之一，普遍的盈利惊喜都在百分之十几。 * **人工智能交易：** 正在走向成熟，变得更偏向企业，是一场“人工智能基础设施建设”（在戴尔、惠普身上可见）。 * **伊朗冲突影响：** 市场对新闻头条的敏感度有所降低。影响主要集中在对利率敏感的领域（中小盘股、房屋建筑商），因为十年期国债收益率接近4.5%。然而，亚洲（除中国外，如韩国）的盈利足够强劲，高利率对其人工智能基础设施建设而言“不是问题”。如果达成具体协议，将极大地利好对利率敏感的板块和国内消费实力。 * **芯片：** 普遍看好。指出英伟达在今年迄今排名前25的半导体公司中几乎“垫底”，这表明除了图形处理器（GPU）之外，还有更广泛的参与。建设范围延伸到内存、中央处理器（CPU）和传统电信（网络、光纤）等物理人工智能基础设施。 * **软件：** 看到机会，特别是考虑到该板块在伊朗冲突前因对人工智能颠覆的担忧而下跌了近30%。认为人工智能不会使所有软件过时。那些拥有高转换成本和深度工作流集成（如Snowflake、ServiceNow、Salesforce）的公司正在将人工智能推向市场。 * **防御性选择：** 建议将**公用事业**作为一种“精明的防御性”选择。它与利率联动，具有防御性特征，但同时也通过电力需求和电网建设而接触到人工智能基础设施，在一个防御性板块中提供了“进攻性机会”。 * **Ben Wershkul (雅虎财经华盛顿记者) 关于霍尔木兹海峡：** * 强调特朗普对开放海峡的要求与伊朗外长谈论“未来政府”（暗示收费）之间的不兼容性。 * 概述了一项潜在的60天开放海峡协议，随后进行核谈判。伊朗对收费有长期野心。 * 美国的盟友阿曼参与了与伊朗关于联合收费机构的谈判，但这对白宫来说是“不予考虑的”。特朗普对阿曼发出了强烈威胁。财政部也宣布对阿曼实施新制裁。 * 华盛顿目前的看法是“脆弱的暂停”，而非“持久协议”，但60天的开放海峡对全球石油供应是“市场利好”。 * **Dan Howley (雅虎财经科技编辑) 关于台北国际电脑展 (Computex)：** * 台北国际电脑展正在台湾拉开帷幕。预计英特尔、高通，尤其是英伟达将发布重要公告。 * 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋将在台北举行的GTC大会（早于台北国际电脑展）上发表主题演讲，讨论Vera Rubin（下一代芯片）和新产品。 * 黄仁勋已在台湾一周，会见了合作伙伴，并透露英伟达在台支出已从每年100-150亿美元跃升至1000-1500亿美元。AMD也宣布在台湾投资数十亿美元。 * 尽管美国努力将芯片制造带回本土，但主要参与者并未放弃台湾。 * 地缘政治：此次活动在台北举行，正值中台关系紧张之际。华尔街已经学会“习惯与这种紧张局势共存”。有人担心在台湾进行大量投资可能会惹恼未来的特朗普政府。 * **Byron Deeter (Bessemer Venture Partners 合伙人) 关于Anthropic和IPO市场：** * **Anthropic：** 完成一轮融资，估值达9650亿美元，“迅速超越OpenAI”。这归因于“前所未有的”业务进展，年增长率达到十倍（从1亿美元增至10亿美元，去年增至90亿美元）。 * Dario Amodei (Anthropic首席执行官) 报告第一季度年化增长率达到80倍（8000%），这“比10倍模型高出8倍”。他们现在是“毋庸置疑的人工智能领导者”。 * 成功归因于团队、模型质量，以及通过超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）获得领先的API企业平台分发渠道。企业正在集成Anthropic模型，创造可持续收入。 * **IPO市场：** 自2021年以来经历了“历史上最糟糕的几年”。 * **即将到来的大型IPO：** 预计今年可能出现3万亿美元的IPO，包括SpaceX（未来几周内），以及OpenAI和Anthropic（据报道下半年上市），所有这些都可能达到万亿美元以上的市值。这将打破资本配置的纪录。 * 其他IPO的“隐性储备”正在积累，明年上半年可能会出现大量上市。这些上市将把可交易的软件/人工智能公司带入公开市场，此前此类公司仅限于硬件或稀释后的超大规模云服务商。 * **市场容量：** 认为市场能够吸收这些大型IPO。尽管市值很高，但流通股可能受到限制，而且这些公司是市场渴望拥抱的“高质量、高增长、独特的资产”。 * SpaceX将是“第一次考验”，也是“风险最大”的公司，因为其商业模式复杂。SpaceX成功上市将预示着Anthropic和OpenAI的好前景。 * **人工智能与互联网泡沫：** 承认有“互联网泡沫的感觉”，但认为一个关键区别在于：互联网泡沫是流量“先于”营收；人工智能则“有财务数据支持”，有“真实营收”和需求。Sam Altman和Dario Amodei表示，如果供应更多，他们会增长更快。目前仍处于“早期阶段”，潜在市场总规模（TAMs）比云计算大十倍。预计会有周期，但软件盈利仍处于早期阶段。 * **旧金山49人队：** 作为球队老板，对即将到来的赛季表示乐观，称赞球队在休赛期做出了不错的调整，并拥有出色的新秀阵容。希望能“打到二月份”（即进入超级碗）。Nick Bosa可能会在训练营前归队。 * **Danielle Shay (Options Playbook, TastyTrade) 关于期权市场：** * 将当前市场描述为“有点像2020年2.0版”——“逢低买入并追逐动能”，尤其是在人工智能股票中。 * 指出“强劲的趋势，巨大的动能”，以及新公司进入市场，为散户交易者提供了机会。 * **杠杆产品：** 强调了2倍ETF（例如针对微软的MSFU，也适用于特斯拉、博通、Cloudflare），这些产品为昂贵的“七巨头”股票提供了杠杆押注。承认波动性增加，但认为这是“机会”。 * **财报惊喜：** 本季度许多公司在财报发布后表现出预期涨幅的两到三倍，尤其是戴尔。她认为这些走势表明“基本面在那里”，反驳了“泡沫”的说法。 * **Reddit (RDDT)：** 看涨押注。认为它被不公平地“与软件行业灾难混为一谈”。强劲的盈利超预期，大型语言模型使用其数据（人工智能概念股）。看好技术形态，空头挤压可能推高至200美元。 **MP Materials (MP)：** 看好能源领域。认为存在整合，可能出现利好消息，并实现突破。目标价75美元。 * **Ines Ferre (雅虎财经) 关于热门新闻：** * **财富聚集区（Meta-terres）：** 富裕退休人士正在精英医疗中心附近（如纽约市）购买第二套住房，以便获得专业医生服务，尤其是在迈阿密等地炎热的夏季。这种趋势对拥有顶级医院的城市的豪华房地产市场是利好。 * **最大化休假时间：** 员工们正在策略性地利用假期来延长有限的带薪休假时间（例如，在三天周末的基础上增加几天，以获得五天的旅行）。美国人通常只有10-15天的带薪休假。 * **工作与生活界限：** 86%的员工在休假期间仍查看工作邮件，超过50%的人接听工作电话。近一半的人由于内疚或压力而没有用完所有带薪休假，这凸显了断开工作连接的困难。 * **大学毕业生薪资预期：** 新大学毕业生平均预期薪资为8万美元，而实际平均起薪接近5.6万美元。这一巨大差距反映了学生对生活成本（租金、食品杂货、债务）的认知以及实际工资的下降。工程师预期8万-8.5万美元，但起薪为7万-7.5万美元；教育工作者预期5万-5.6万美元，但起薪为4万-5万美元。大学毕业生的失业率最高。 * **Joel Berner (Realtor.com高级经济学家) 关于房地产市场：** * **活跃度：** 2024年春季是自2022年以来最活跃的时期，尽管之前的基数较低（前几年销售额接近30年低点）。抵押贷款利率较去年下降30个基点对合同签署量产生了影响。 * **新常态：** 美国人正在接受更高的利率作为“新常态”。卖家也在调整，更实际地定价房屋，导致销售额增加和降价减少。 * **抵押贷款利率：** 30年期固定利率为6.56%。前景很大程度上取决于伊朗冲突及其对通胀的影响。停火可能使利率降至“六出头”，而冲突持续可能推高至“六高位”。 * **停火影响：** 持久停火可以通过缓解通胀压力，迅速提振房地产市场，因为通胀压力目前给购房者带来“双重打击”（高利率+高生活开支=首付储蓄减少）。 * **区域机会：** 对购房者来说，阳光地带市场（奥斯汀、菲尼克斯、杰克逊维尔）机会最佳，这些市场经历了大幅价格回调（例如，奥斯汀房价同比下降7-8%，库存增加，市场挂牌时间更长）。 * **更艰难的市场：** 东北部市场（普罗维登斯、哈特福德）由于库存受限和价格上涨，仍然艰难，有利于卖家。 * **关键月份：** 五月和六月是关键时期，因为它们标志着购房旺季的顶峰（与学校假期相关）。 * **需关注的关键指标：** 影响抵押贷款利率的通胀率（CPI、PCE），以及合同签署量（销售的前瞻性指标）。四月份合同签署量强劲增长4.5%，预示着五月和六月的成交量将更强劲。 * **Praz Sreemurthy (雅虎财经) 关于日产聆风 (Nissan Leaf) 与汽车行业：** * **2026款日产聆风电动车：** 鉴于高油价，恰逢其时。之前的车型错过了电动汽车税收抵免的时机。 * **设计：** 较过去的聆风有所改进，“更简洁，更具运动感”。 * **性能：** 为“实用性”（朝九晚五通勤）而非速度而设计。215马力，250英里续航里程。行驶平稳。 * **成本：** 约4万美元（低配版更便宜）。享受无燃油费的好处。 * **电动汽车市场动态：** 需要持续的高油价才能从根本上改变消费者对电动汽车的看法。可负担性危机（物价高昂）使汽车成为“次要考虑事项”。可能会销售更多二手电动汽车。日产作为一家“挑战者公司”，希望聆风能帮助他们恢复，因为他们此前已因亏损而停产了更昂贵的Aria电动车。 * **美国众议院法案：** 一项拟议的“2026年机动车现代化法案”旨在阻止与中国有关联的汽车制造商。它可能无意中禁止新款梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车在美国销售，因为中国国有汽车制造商北汽集团持有梅赛德斯约10%的股份，吉利一位亿万富翁持有另外10%。该法案立法过程漫长。 * **Richard Dix (Gap Inc.首席执行官) 关于财报：** * **总体表现：** Gap Inc.实现了“进步的一个季度”，这是其连续第九个可比销售额实现正增长的季度。四个品牌中有三个实现增长，包括老海军（Old Navy）。毛利率表现超出预期，市场份额增加，并向股东返还了4.5亿美元。 * **老海军 (Old Navy)：** 可比销售额增长1%，连续第六个季度实现正增长。在运动服饰、牛仔、童装和婴幼儿用品方面表现强劲。 * **老海军面临的挑战：** 季节性品类，特别是连衣裙，开局较弱，原因在于“时尚与价值平衡”的错配。对一个正在下滑的市场细分过度投资。目前趋势正在改善，推出“更具竞争力的价格和强劲的宣传”。全年指引有所下调，但目标是取得更好的业绩。 * **消费者健康：** 看到消费者行为的“一致性和强度”，所有收入群体（低、中、高）的平均单位零售价（AUR）持续增长，市场份额也有所增加。消费者“稳定”。 * **Gap品牌：** 第一季度实现“两位数突出增长”，连续第十个季度实现正增长。女装势头强劲，男装、童装和婴幼儿用品有所改善。成功归因于严谨的宣传、与Z世代的合作以及跨代吸引力。看到“巨大的发展空间”。 * **Athleta：** 2026年是“重建之年”。自八月以来由新领导团队管理，精简了产品线（提高了平均单位零售价和利润率），重新调整了人才，并改进了网站。预计第二季度业绩与第一季度相似，下半年略有改善。相信其作为女装运动服饰“排名前五的品牌”的长期潜力。 * **Ben Zobrist (Champion Forward创始人，世界大赛MVP) 关于青少年运动员心理健康：** * **Champion Forward：** 一个致力于解决年轻运动员心理和情感压力的非营利组织，这些压力因社交媒体、NIL协议（运动员姓名、肖像和形象使用权）、体育博彩和体育商业化而加剧。 * **个人动力：** Zobrist意识到，即使在赢得世界大赛后，他仍需要进行“内在修养”才能实现健康的平衡，这促使他帮助年轻一代。 * **筹款：** 他将2016年世界大赛MVP座驾——一辆行驶了8000英里的科迈罗跑车——用于宣传该组织，人们可以捐赠低至5美元的金额。 * **使命：** 专注于培养“大使”，在运动员、家长和教练之间促进情商、意识、平衡和联系。强调家庭和社区内的联系是心理健康的“银弹”。 * **现代压力：** 年轻运动员面临不同的压力；他们主要寻求“归属感”，而非胜利。教练需要“陪伴”他们，并树立情感健康的榜样。 * **NIL协议：** 对年轻运动员管理巨额资金、招募和改变人生的决定所带来的额外压力表示“真正的担忧”，因为他们的心智尚未完全成熟。 * **体育博彩：** 一个“巨大的干扰”，对年轻运动员的闲暇时间来说可能“非常不健康”，并给球迷带来额外的压力。建议“屏蔽”不健康的影响，并“放大”健康的影响。 * **MLB机器人裁判 (ABS)：** 对自动好球区（对击球手来说）“非常支持”，但承认裁判的人为因素和争论是“比赛有趣的一部分”。认为ABS加快了比赛节奏，这对关注度很重要。 * **MLB集体劳资协议 (CBA)：** 即将到来的集体劳资协议（将于年底到期）将涉及工资帽和收入分享的辩论。认为球员和老板都需要团结起来，共同发展这项运动，可能通过整合更多娱乐元素（如萨凡纳香蕉队）。认为球员薪资上限是一个“症结”。 * **Dane Barnes (Shibumi Co-founder) 关于Shibumi Shade：** * **产品起源：** 始于2016年，旨在改善他们自己的海滩体验，灵感来自床单和风筝。由于其优于传统遮阳伞/帐篷（更易用、更安全、遮阳面积更大、更轻、抗风），每年都售罄。 * **市场增长：** 业务在卡罗莱纳州、佛罗里达州、德克萨斯州和东海岸“蓬勃发展”。客户认为它是“更好的产品”和“花过的最值得的钱”。多代家庭是最大的客户群。 * **知识产权：** 由于存在仿冒品，公司在知识产权方面投入巨大并大力执行。 * **成本：** Shibumi Shade经典款（较大型号）售价295美元。他们还销售沙滩椅和一款“远离海滩的遮阳产品”。 * **争议/禁令：** 声称“没有太多争议”。表示美国几乎所有海滩都允许使用Shibumi Shade。少数禁令（只允许使用遮阳伞的规定）是在Shibumi出现之前制定的，旨在针对传统的野餐帐篷。希望城镇能将Shibumi与帐篷区分开来，因为公共安全官员表示它使海滩更安全。 * **规模化：** 口碑（人们在海滩上看到）是最好的销售动力。正在通过Shibumi Park Vista等产品，将业务扩展到“远离海滩”的场景，例如草地环境。 **四、未来事件** * **下周：** 五月就业报告。 * **周四：** Lululemon公布财报（预计营收温和增长，关注创新迹象和CEO过渡战略的线索）。

Here's a comprehensive summary of the news and facts discussed in the "Market Domination" segment: --- **I. Market Overview & Performance (Jared Blikre & Inez Ferre)** * **Market Status:** Stocks are higher to close out the month, with tech again leading gains. There's an hour to go until the closing balance. * **Index Performance (Intraday/Near Close):** * **Dow:** Leading today, up about 0.6% (6 tenths of 1%), never been red on the day, close to intraday highs. * **Nasdaq:** Barely positive, set for another record high if it holds. * **S&P 500:** Not up much, but also set for a record high if it closes green. * **Russell 2000:** Down about 0.8% (8 tenths of 1%), far from yesterday's record close. * **Volatility (VIX):** Down to 15.38, its lowest level since January. The spike in January was attributed to Iran war headlines. When the VIX goes down, stocks tend to go up. * **Sector Performance:** * **Leading:** Tech (up 1.8%), Financials. * **Red (Underperforming):** Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Healthcare, Energy (all defensive sectors). * **Individual Stock/Industry Highlights:** * **Nasdaq:** Microsoft up 3.5%, Micron up 3%. Alphabet down 2.5%, Tesla down 1%, Amazon down 1%, NVIDIA down 1%. * **Software:** "Nice green board." Snowflake up 13% (later updated to 35% on earnings report, then another 5% today), CrowdStrike up 8%, Oracle up 10%, Okta up 30%, Atlassian up 15%, ServiceNow up 14%, Workday up 12%. Many "underwater stocks gaining." * **Semiconductors:** Mixed. Micron up 3% (later updated to 5%), Broadcom up 2% (later updated to 4%), NVIDIA up 1%. Intel down 5%, Texas Instruments down 3%, ARM up 5%. * **Dow:** IBM up 12%, Salesforce up 9% (later updated to 8.5%), Boeing up 1%, Honeywell up 2%, Goldman Sachs up 1%. * **Dow Downside:** J&J and Walmart down more than 2% (staples). Caterpillar down 1%, Home Depot down 1%, Merck down 1%. * **S&P 500 Streak:** Up nine straight weeks, a phenomenon not seen since December 2023. * **Dow Transports:** Up 4% over the current week. **II. Key Market & Geopolitical Topics** * **Iran & Oil Market (Jared Blikre & Inez Ferre):** * Oil down today. President Trump is making a final determination on a preliminary deal to prolong the truce with Iran. * Trump's "red lines": No nuclear weapons for Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz must be completely open. * Initial pushback from Iranian TV, followed by encouraging comments from an official. * Oil is down 17% over the last month, indicating the market's confidence in a deal being reached to avoid kinetic action. * Deutsche Bank noted that the ceasefire wouldn't have continued this long if both sides weren't trying to avoid conflict. * **Gas Prices:** Still elevated, a "pain point." National average down 12 cents from last week to around $4.39. Rebecca Babin suggests $4.75/gallon if oil flows aren't restored, with strategists talking about $5/gallon if the situation continues. New Jersey already sees $4.75, California above $6. * **AI Trading Trend (Inez Ferre):** * Initially a narrow rally, but now showing signs of broadening. * Micron crossing $1 trillion market cap (up 19% that day) contributed 18 points to the S&P 500's 45-point gain (Bespoke Investments data). * Rally concentrated in semis and tech. * Broadening seen in Dell, Cisco (best performer on the Dow), Caterpillar (power/energy), and Ford (energy investments). * Top trending tickers earlier today were Dell, IBM, and Cisco, evoking "1999 vibes." * Strategists desire a broader rally to prevent a market correction. * **Robinhood & Meme Stocks (Jared Blikre):** * Robinhood (HOOD) stock saw a bump due to its rollout of "agentic trading," allowing AI to trade users' accounts. * HOOD is up 21% this week, part of broader meme stock activity. * Robinhood's stock is decoupling from Bitcoin, to which it was tied since last October. Bitcoin has been largely negative, cut in half since then. * A correlation comparison over 63 trading days shows Robinhood shooting up as Bitcoin drops. * The test for Robinhood is to maintain independent trading as it rolls out new products. News also emerged about state interest in "Trump accounts" on Robinhood. **III. Guest Insights** * **Mike Dixon (Verizon Head of Research and Quantitative Strategies):** * **Market Outlook:** Believes the market could "melt up" through the summer. * **Seasonality:** June and July average 5% gains for broad equity markets over the last 10 years, with low-volume summer months providing a "wind at your back." * **Fundamentals:** Just came off one of the best earnings seasons in years, with broad earnings surprises in the high teens. * **AI Trade:** Maturing, becoming more enterprise-related and an "AI infrastructure build out" (seen in Dell, HP). * **Iran Conflict Impact:** Market sensitivity to headlines has lessened. Impact is mainly on rate-sensitive areas (small/mid-caps, home builders) due to the 10-year Treasury near 4.5%. However, earnings in Asia (ex-China, e.g., South Korea) are strong enough that higher rates are a "non-issue" for their AI infrastructure play. A concrete deal could strongly benefit rate-sensitive sectors and domestic consumer strength. * **Chips:** Likes them broadly. Notes that NVIDIA is almost "dead last" among the top 25 semiconductor names year-to-date, indicating broader participation beyond GPUs. The build-out extends to memory, CPUs, and old-school telecom (networking, fiber optics) for physical AI infrastructure. * **Software:** Sees opportunity, especially given the sector was down almost 30% prior to the Iran conflict due to AI disruption fears. Believes AI won't make all software obsolete. Companies with high switching costs and deep workflow integration (e.g., Snowflake, ServiceNow, Salesforce) are bringing AI to market. * **Defensive Play:** Suggests **Utilities** as a "smartly defensive" option. It trades with rates and has a defensive profile but also exposure to AI infrastructure through power demand and grid build-out, offering an "offensive play" within a defensive sector. * **Ben Wershkul (Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent) on Strait of Hormuz:** * Highlights the incompatibility between Trump's demand for an open Strait and Iran's foreign minister talking about "future administration" (code for tolls). * Outlines a potential 60-day deal with an open Strait, followed by nuclear talks. Iran has long-term ambitions for tolls. * Oman, a U.S. ally, is involved in talks with Iran about a joint tolling authority, which is a "non-starter" for the White House. Trump issued a strong threat against Oman. The Treasury Department has also announced new sanctions on Oman. * Washington's current view is a "fragile pause" rather than a "durable deal," but 60 days of an open Strait is "market-positive" for global oil flows. * **Dan Howley (Yahoo Finance Tech Editor) on Computex:** * Computex is kicking off in Taiwan. Key announcements expected from Intel, Qualcomm, and especially NVIDIA. * NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote at GTC Taipei (ahead of Computex), discussing Vera Rubin (next-gen chips) and new products. * Huang has been in Taiwan for a week, meeting partners, and revealed NVIDIA's spending there has jumped from $10-15 billion to $100-150 billion annually. AMD also announced billions in Taiwan investments. * Despite U.S. efforts to bring chip manufacturing back, major players are not abandoning Taiwan. * Geopolitics: The event occurs in Taipei amid China-Taiwan tensions. Wall Street has learned to "live with that tension." Concerns raised that extensive investments in Taiwan could displease a future Trump administration. * **Byron Deeter (Partner, Bessemer Venture Partners) on Anthropic & IPO Market:** * **Anthropic:** Closed a funding round at a $965 billion valuation, "rocketing past OpenAI." This is due to "unprecedented" business progression, with 10x year-over-year growth (from $100M to $1B to $9B last year). * Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) reported 80x run rate growth in Q1 (8,000%), which was "8x above the 10x model." They are now the "unquestioned leader in AI." * Success is attributed to team, model quality, and securing distribution through hyperscalers with a leading API enterprise platform. Businesses are integrating Anthropic models, creating sustainable revenue. * **IPO Market:** Has seen "historically bad years" since 2021. * **Upcoming Mega-IPOs:** Expects potentially $3 trillion in IPOs this year, including SpaceX (next few weeks), and OpenAI and Anthropic (reportedly H2 listings), all potentially debuting north of $1 trillion. This would break records for capital deployment. * "Shadow pipeline" of other IPOs is building, with a potential flood in H1 next year. These listings will bring treatable software/AI names to public markets, previously limited to hardware or diluted hyperscalers. * **Market Capacity:** Believes the market can absorb these mega-IPOs. Floats will likely be constrained despite high market caps, and these are "high quality, high growth, unique assets" that the market is eager to embrace. * SpaceX will be the "first test" and is the "riskiest" due to its complex business model. A successful SpaceX IPO would bode well for Anthropic and OpenAI. * **AI vs. Dot-Com Bubble:** Acknowledges "dot-com vibes" but sees a key difference: Dot-com had traffic *preceding* revenue; AI has "financials there," "real revenue," and demand. Sam Altman and Dario Amodei stated they'd grow faster with more supply. Still in "early innings," with TAMs 10x larger than cloud computing. Expects cycles, but early days of software monetization. * **San Francisco 49ers:** As an owner, expresses optimism for the upcoming season, citing good offseason moves and a strong rookie class. Hopes to "play in February" (Super Bowl). Nick Bosa might be back for training camp. * **Danielle Shay (Options Playbook, TastyTrade) on Options Market:** * Describes the current market as "a little bit of 2020 2.0" – "buy the dip and chase momentum," especially in AI names. * Notes "strong trends, great momentum," and new names entering the market, providing opportunities for retail traders. * **Leveraged Products:** Highlights 2x ETFs (e.g., MSFU for Microsoft, also for Tesla, AVGO, Cloudflare) that offer leveraged bets on expensive Mag 7 names. Acknowledges increased volatility but views it as "opportunity." * **Earnings Surprises:** Many companies delivered 2x or 3x the expected move after earnings this quarter, especially Dell. She believes these moves show "fundamentals are there," countering "bubble" claims. * **Reddit (RDDT):** Bullish bet. Believes it's unfairly "lumped in with the software apocalypse." Strong earnings beats, large language models use its data (AI play). Likes technical patterns, potential for short squeeze targeting $200. * **MP Materials (MP):** Likes the energy space. Sees consolidation, potential for positive news, and a breakout. Targets $75. * **Ines Ferre (Yahoo Finance) on Trending Stories:** * **Meta-terres:** Wealthy retirees are buying second homes near elite medical centers (e.g., New York City) to access specialized doctors, especially during hot summer months in places like Miami. This trend is bullish for luxury real estate in cities with top hospitals. * **PTO Maxing:** Employees are strategically using holidays to extend limited vacation days (e.g., adding days to a three-day weekend for a five-day trip). Americans typically get only 10-15 PTO days. * **Work-Life Boundaries:** 86% of employees still check work emails on vacation, over 50% take calls. Nearly half don't use all PTO due to guilt or pressure, highlighting the difficulty of disconnecting. * **College Grad Salary Expectations:** New college graduates expect an average salary of $80,000, while the actual average starting salary is closer to $56,000. This large gap reflects students' perception of living costs (rent, groceries, debt) and a decline in real wages. Engineers expect $80-85k but start at $70-75k; educators expect $50-56k but start at $40-50k. Unemployment is highest for college grads. * **Joel Berner (Realtor.com Senior Economist) on Housing Market:** * **Activity:** Spring 2024 is the most active since 2022, though coming off a low bar (sales near 30-year lows in prior years). A 30 basis point drop in mortgage rates from last year made a difference in contract signings. * **New Normal:** Americans are accepting higher rates as a "new normal." Sellers are also adjusting, pricing homes more realistically, leading to increasing sales and decreasing price cuts. * **Mortgage Rates:** The 30-year fixed is at 6.56%. Outlook depends heavily on the Iran conflict and its impact on inflation. A ceasefire could bring rates down to the "low sixes," while continued conflict could push them to "high sixes." * **Impact of Ceasefire:** A durable ceasefire could quickly boost the housing market by easing inflationary pressures, which currently create a "double whammy" for buyers (high rates + high living expenses = less savings for down payments). * **Regional Opportunities:** Best for buyers in Sunbelt markets (Austin, Phoenix, Jacksonville) which saw major price corrections (e.g., Austin prices down 7-8% YoY, inventory up, longer market times). * **Tougher Markets:** Northeastern markets (Providence, Hartford) are still tough due to constricted inventory and rising prices, favoring sellers. * **Decisive Months:** May and June are crucial as they mark the peak of the home-buying season (linked to school schedules). * **Key Metrics to Watch:** Inflation rate (CPI, PCE) driving mortgage rates, and contract signings (a forward indicator for sales). April saw a strong 4.5% increase in contract signings, suggesting stronger closings in May and June. * **Praz Sreemurthy (Yahoo Finance) on Nissan Leaf & Auto Industry:** * **2026 Nissan Leaf EV:** Arriving at a good time due to high gas prices. The previous model missed EV tax credit timing. * **Design:** Improved from past Leaf, "cleaner, more sporty." * **Performance:** Designed for "utility" (9-to-5 commute), not speed. 215 horsepower, 250 miles of range. Smooth ride. * **Cost:** Around $40,000 (or less for lower trims). Benefits from no gas cost. * **EV Market Dynamics:** Sustained high gas prices would be needed to fundamentally shift consumer thinking towards EVs. Affordability crisis (everything expensive) is making cars a "back burner" item. More used EVs might be sold. Nissan, as a "challenge company," hopes the Leaf can help them recover, as they previously pulled the more expensive Aria EV due to losses. * **U.S. House Bill:** A proposed "Motor Vehicles Modernization Act of 2026" aims to block Chinese-linked automakers. It could inadvertently ban new Mercedes-Benz vehicles in the U.S. because state-owned Chinese automaker BAIC holds ~10% stake in Mercedes, and a Geely billionaire holds another 10%. The bill has a long legislative path ahead. * **Richard Dix (Gap Inc. CEO) on Earnings:** * **Overall Performance:** Gap Inc. delivered a "progress quarter," its ninth consecutive with positive comparable sales. Three out of four brands grew, including Old Navy. Gross margin overperformed, gained market share, and returned $450M to shareholders. * **Old Navy:** Achieved 1% comparable sales growth, its sixth consecutive quarter of positive comps. Strong in active, denim, kids, and baby. * **Old Navy Challenge:** Seasonal categories, particularly dresses, had a weaker start due to a mismatch in "fashion and value equation." Overinvested in a declining market segment. Trends are improving with "sharper prices and strong messaging." Full-year guidance is moderated but aiming for better results. * **Consumer Health:** Sees "consistency and strength" in consumer behavior, with sustained average unit retail (AUR) growth and market share gains across all income cohorts (low, middle, high). Consumers are "steady." * **Gap Brand:** "Double-digit standout comp" in Q1, its tenth consecutive positive comp. Strong momentum in women's, improving men's, kids, and baby. Attributes success to disciplined messaging, Gen Z collaborations, and multi-generational appeal. Sees "significant runway ahead." * **Athleta:** 2026 is a "rebuild year." Under new leadership since August, streamlined assortment (improving AUR and margins), repositioned talent, improved website. Expects Q2 results similar to Q1, with slight improvement in H2. Believes in its long-term potential as a "top five ranked brand" in women's activewear. * **Ben Zobrist (Champion Forward Founder, World Series MVP) on Youth Sports Mental Health:** * **Champion Forward:** A non-profit dedicated to addressing the mental and emotional pressures on young athletes, exacerbated by social media, NIL deals, sports betting, and the business of sports. * **Personal Motivation:** Zobrist realized that even after winning World Series, he needed "internal work" to achieve healthy balance, prompting him to help the younger generation. * **Fundraising:** His 2016 World Series MVP Camaro, with 8,000 miles, is being used to promote the organization, allowing people to donate as little as $5. * **Mission:** Focuses on creating "ambassadors" to foster emotional intelligence, awareness, balance, and connection among athletes, parents, and coaches. Emphasizes that connection within families and community is the "silver bullet" for mental health. * **Modern Pressures:** Young athletes face different pressures; they primarily seek "belonging" before winning. Coaches need to "walk alongside" them and model emotional wellness. * **NIL Deals:** Expresses "real concern" over the added pressure of managing significant money, recruitment, and life-altering decisions for young athletes whose brains are not fully developed. * **Sports Betting:** A "big distraction" that can be "very unhealthy" for young athletes' downtime and creates additional pressure from fans. Advises "silencing" unhealthy influences and "amplifying" healthy ones. * **MLB Robot Umpires (ABS):** A "big fan" of automated strike zones for hitters but acknowledges the human element of umpires and arguments is a "fun part of the game." Believes ABS speeds up the game, which is important for attention. * **MLB CBA:** The upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement (expiring end of year) will involve debates on salary caps and revenue sharing. Believes both players and owners need to unite to grow the game, potentially by integrating more entertainment aspects (like the Savannah Bananas). Considers player caps a "sticking point." * **Dane Barnes (Shibumi Co-founder) on Shibumi Shade:** * **Product Origin:** Started in 2016 to improve their own beach experience, inspired by bedsheets and kites. Sold out every year due to its superiority over traditional umbrellas/tents (easier, safer, more shade, lighter, wind-held). * **Market Growth:** Business is "booming" across the Carolinas, Florida, Texas, and the East Coast. Customers find it a "better product" and "best money they've ever spent." Multi-generational families are the biggest customer base. * **Intellectual Property:** Has heavily invested in and enforces its IP due to copycats. * **Cost:** The Shibumi Shade Classic (larger model) costs $295. They also sell beach chairs and a "shade away from the beach" product. * **Controversy/Bans:** Claims "not much controversy." States that nearly all U.S. beaches allow Shibumi Shade. The few bans (umbrella-only rules) were created before Shibumi existed and were aimed at traditional tailgate tents. Hopes towns will distinguish Shibumi from tents, as public safety officials say it makes beaches safer. * **Scaling:** Word-of-mouth (people seeing them on the beach) is the best sales engine. Expanding "away from the beach" with products like the Shibumi Park Vista for grassy environments. **IV. Upcoming Events** * **Next Week:** May jobs report. * **Thursday:** Lululemon reporting earnings (modest revenue growth expected, looking for innovation signs and clues on CEO transition strategy). ---

摘要

#yahoofinance #business #stockmarket 3:00pm Market Domination 4:00pm Market Domination Overtime 4:30pm Asking for a Trend Daily Market Coverage - May 29, 2026 3PM - 5PM (ET) #LiveTrading #TradingLive #StockMarketLive #Stocks #StocksToday #SP500 #FinancialNews #StockMarketNews #BusinessNews #WallStreet #Fed #Nasdaq #Inflation == Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, advanced tools, and more information to help you manage your financial life. Try Yahoo Finance's AlphaSpace Today 👉 https://alphaspace.finance.yahoo.com/ Connect with us: — Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/yahoofinance — X/Twitter: https://x.com/YahooFinance — Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/yahoofinance/ — TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@yahoofinance — LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/yahoo-finance See the Latest News & Data: https://finance.yahoo.com/ Get the Yahoo Finance App: — iOS (https://apple.co/3Rten0R) — Android (https://bit.ly/3t8UnXO)

GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......

中英文字稿

你好，欢迎来到《市场主导》。我是乔什·利普顿，从我们纽约总部现场直播。现在距离收盘只剩一个小时了。股市今天上涨，月末收盘时，科技股再次领涨。今天和我一起探讨市场行情的有雅虎财经的贾里德·布里克里和伊内斯·法雷。欢迎你们两位。贾里德，我们先从你开始，请为我们更新一下市场情况。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Hello and welcome to Market Domination. I'm Josh Lipton, live from our New York headquarters. There's just an hour to go now to the closing balance. Stocks are higher here to close out the month with tech. Again, leading games. Joining me here to talk about this and more. We've got Yama Finances, Jared Blickery and Inez Faray. Welcome both. Jared, we'll start with you. Bring us up to speed on these markets.

好的，我们来看一下Wi-Fi互动板。这是一个记录的故事。在这里，道琼斯指数今天领涨。你可以看到它上涨了大约0.6%。这是盘中价格走势。今天从未转红，接近盘中高点，这个高点是在中午前不久创下的。而纳斯达克指数，目前刚刚呈现正值。如果一直保持到收盘，这将会是另一个创纪录的高点。标普500指数也是如此，涨幅不大，但只要今天收盘是绿色的就行。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right, let's go to the Wi-Fi Interactive. It is a story of records across the top here. Dow is leading today. You can see it's up about six-tenths of 1%. Here's the intraday price action. Never been red on the day. Pretty close to the highs of the day, which it notched before the noon hour. And here's the Nasdaq. It's just barely positive right now. But still, that would be another record high if it holds into the close. Same for the S&P 500. Not up much, but all you've got to do is close green today.

与此同时，罗素2000指数距离昨日创下的最高收盘记录有些距离。但你可以看到，它下跌了大约0.8%。不过在早盘时的跌幅更大。我还想给你展示一下市场波动情况。VIX指数降到了15.38，这是自1月以来的最低点。我给你看看今年以来的走势图。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Russell 2000, meanwhile, a little bit far from a record close, which it had yesterday. But you can see it's down about eight-tenths of 1%. It has been lower, though, as you can see in the early hour of trading. And I want to show you what's going on with volatility. The VIX has been coming down 15.38. I'm going to show you a year-to-date chart. This is now the lowest since we've seen since about January.

所以，我们几乎到了今年的最低点。当时有一个显著的飙升，就是因为伊朗战争的新闻。可以看到，自那以后走势一直在下滑，而这反映在了股价上。当VIX指数下降时，股票通常会上涨。接下来让我们看看行业版图。这是道琼斯指数，我们等会再回到这个话题。但可以看到，科技板块领跑，上涨了1.8%。金融板块也表现优异。然而今天其他板块都处于下跌状态。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So, almost to the lows of the year. This was that big spike right there. That was the Iran war headlines. And you can see it's been down ever since. And that's been reflected in stock prices. When the VIX goes down, stocks tend to go up. Let me get to our sector map here. That was the Dow. We'll come back to that. But you can see tech is in the forefront. It's up 1.8%. Financial is also outperforming. Everything else in the red, though, today.

是什么导致市场下跌呢？主要是食品和生活必需品板块。然后是房地产和医疗保健行业。此外，能源行业也属于这一类。这些行业都是防御性行业。因此，如果我们看看纳斯达克指数，会发现很多股票都在下跌。但微软上涨了3.5%，美光科技又上涨了3%。让我按行业来分析一下，从软件行业开始。你会看到，哇，那是一个不错的上涨趋势。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And what is leading to the downside? That would be consumer staples. Then we've got real estate and health care. Also, throw energy in there. All those are defensive sectors. So, if we take a look at the NASDAQ, we're going to see a lot of red here. But Microsoft is up 3.5%. Micron up another 3%. And let me just break this down by industry. So, we'll start with software. You can see, wow, that is a nice green board.

本周我们也遇到了一些这样的情况。Snowflake 似乎再次上涨，目前上涨了 13%。CrowdStrike 上涨了 8%。而在半导体板块，我们看到了一些股票的小幅下跌。不过很多大型公司表现不错，比如我之前提到的美光（Micron）就涨了。博通（Broadcom）大约上涨了 2%，NVIDIA 又上涨了 1%。最后再回到我们几乎一开始提到的道琼斯指数。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We've had a few of those this week. Snowflake looks like it's climbing again. Now is up 13%. CrowdStrike up 8%. And then we have the semiconductor board where we see a little bit more red. But a lot of those big ones. I mentioned Micron before in the green. Looks like Broadcom up about 2%. And NVIDIA up another 1%. Finish off on the Dow here where we almost started.

我们可以看到很多红色。表现不错的一些公司包括IBM。你猜怎么着？"大蓝"上涨了12%。Salesforce上涨了9%。但是，下跌方面，我们看到一些消费类公司领跌。尤其是强生和沃尔玛，它们的股价均下跌超过2%。好的，Josh，让我们再来看看油市。顺便说一下，今天油价下跌。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And we can see a lot of red. Some of the outperformers, IBM. Guess what? Big Blue's up 12%. Salesforce up 9%. To the downside, though, we got some staples which are leading to the downside. J&J and Walmart specifically, each of those down more than 2%, Josh. All right. And let's turn to you again to check on the oil market. Oil down today, by the way.

特朗普总统在这里表示，他将对延长与伊朗停战的初步协议做出最终决定。你怎么看呢？是的，他还划出了他的红线，即伊朗不能拥有核武器。此外，霍尔木兹海峡必须完全开放。然而，伊朗电视台对此有些反对，称他发布的内容与协议的一些条款并不完全一致。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

President Trump's saying here he will make a final determination on a preliminary deal to prolong the truce with Iran. What do you make of it? Yeah, and he also gave out his red lines, meaning no nuclear weapons for Iran. And also the Strait of Ramos has to be completely open. So Iranian TV had pushed back some, saying that what he had sent out was not really congruent with some of the terms of the deal.

但是，有一位官员发表了一些鼓舞人心的评论。所以，总的来说，你看到石油价格下降了。油价在过去一个月下跌了17%，这很显著。多少？17%？是的，17%。这基本上说明市场对未来某个时间点能够达成某种协议充满信心。本周早些时候，德意志银行也发表了一份报告，基本上认为尽管过程中有一些小波折，但如果双方都不希望通过谈判来避免冲突，这次的停火不会持续这么久。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But then there was an official that said some encouraging comments. So net-net, you are seeing oil that is lower. You are also seeing that oil over the last month is down 17%. That's significant. How much is that? 17? 17%. So that's the market basically saying we are confident that there will be some type of deal reached at some point. You had Deutsche Bank also putting out a note earlier this week basically saying that you wouldn't have this entire ceasefire go on for so long, even though there were some hiccups there, if both sides really didn't want to try to avoid a kinetic action.

市场似乎认为某个时候会达成某种协议，至少从目前油价的走向来看是这样的。我同意这一点，这看起来确实是市场的预期——我们认为会有一个外交解决方案，而不是长期的冲突。我也想讨论一下加油站的油价。听着，我并不是说油价不高，它仍然是居高不下的。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So the market is looking like it is thinking that there will be some type of agreement at some point, at least the direction that oil is going right now. I agree. I mean, that looks to be like the market bet, right, that we think there will be a diplomatic solution, not a prolonged conflict. I also just prices the pump, get your take on that. Listen, it's still elevated. I'm not minimizing that.

这是一大痛点。不过，全国平均水平有所下降。我看到比上周降了12美分。因此，我们现在回到了大约4.39左右。是的，全国平均水平，如果出现这种波动，可能会继续走低。问题在于，当石油流通再次增加时，Vermeuse海峡会发生什么。即使现在马上宣布达成协议，增加产量、让石油重新流动也需要时间。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

It's a pain point. The national average is down, though. I saw 12 cents from last week. So we're back here at around 439. Yes. And the national average, if you see that type of move, it will tick lower. The question is what will happen with the Strait of Vermeuse when the oil flows will go back up. And it will take time, even if there were to be a deal announced right away, it's going to take time to ramp up production, to get the oils flowing again.

所以你本周早些时候听到Rebecca Babin说，如果供应不畅通，你可能会看到每加仑4.75美元。而且绝对——你现在在新泽西就能看到4.75美元一加仑。对，没错。我们都知道这是一种全国平均水平的说法。而在加利福尼亚，价格已经超过6美元。但无论如何，如果这种情况持续更久，一些策略师预测每加仑价格可能涨到5美元。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So you had Rebecca Babin earlier this week saying you could see that if the flows aren't going through, you could see 475 a gallon. And definitely— You could see 475 right now in New Jersey. Yeah. Oh, yes. Just so we're all clear. Yes. Yeah, for sure. This is a national average that we're talking about. And if you're out in California, you're seeing above 6. But nonetheless, if this continues on even longer, I mean, you've got strategists that are talking about $5 a gallon if this were to continue longer.

转换话题，关于AI交易的热潮，你怎么看？是这样的，我正在写一篇文章，讨论一些策略师指出的市场缺乏广度的问题，尽管现在我们看到AI交易有些扩展。本周，当美光公司市值突破一万亿美元时，当天该公司股价上涨约19%。Bespoke Investments讨论了美光达到历史新高的那一天，这导致标普500指数上涨45点中的18点。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Switching gears, the great AI trading trend, what do you see in there? Yeah, so I'm writing a piece about this, about the lack of breadth that some strategists have been pointing to, this narrow rally in the market, even though now we are seeing a little bit of a broadening of that AI trade. So basically, this past week, when you had Micron that crossed the trillion-dollar market cap that day, that stock was up about 19%. Bespoke Investments talked about the day that Micron rose to all-time highs. That accounted for 18 points of the S&P 500's 45-point gain.

所以这段话基本上是在告诉你，市场已经出现了一波反弹，而且这波反弹主要集中在半导体和科技领域。不过，现在我们看到人工智能相关的交易有些扩展。例如，Jared提到的戴尔，以及道琼斯指数上表现最好的思科。还有因为涉及电力和能源的卡特彼勒，它是表现第二好的公司。福特也在能源领域进行投资。今天早些时候，我们流行趋势榜上排名前三的是戴尔、IBM和思科。这简直就像是1999年重现。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So that's basically telling you that you have had this rally. It's been concentrated. It's been concentrated in the semis. It's been concentrated in tech. And we have seen, though, now this little bit of broadening of the AI trade. So you're looking at Dell that Jared had talked about. Cisco, the best performer on the Dow. You've got Caterpillar that's also the second best performer because they're in power and energy. Ford that's in the energy that is also making investments in energy as well. Our top three trending tickers earlier today were Dell, IBM, and Cisco. This is 1999, guys. It totally is.

所以我们将其称为怀旧回顾，怀旧回顾1999。但基本上，这些策略家是在说，我们希望看到市场更为广泛的拉升。我们真的希望看到这次上涨的广泛性进一步扩大。否则，可能会面临某种调整或下跌的风险。但与此同时，你会看到人工智能交易范围在扩大。Jared，我在这里是因为你有一个新故事。这种故事就像是罗宾汉一样运行，而比特币不是其中的原因。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So we were calling it throwback. Throwback 1999. But this is, so it's basically, yes, these strategists are saying, we want to see a broader rally. We really want to see a broadening of this rally. Otherwise, you could risk some type of correction, some type of downturn. But in the meantime, you are seeing the broadening of the AI trade. Jared, I'm here with you because you've got a new story. It's such a Robinhood, which is working, and Bitcoin isn't the reason.

是的。几天前，Robinhood 的股价有所上涨。这是因为他们正在推出自动交易功能。在不久的将来，用户可以让人工智能为他们交易账户。这可能是个好主意，也可能是个坏主意，但目前股票正在上涨。我想访问我们的无线互动平台，向大家展示本周整体“梗股”的表现。我们看到许多投机资金在追逐这些小股票。你可以看到，在这些股票中，Robinhood 排在顶部，上涨了 21%。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yes. So we got a bump a couple days ago in Robinhood. That's as it's rolling out its agentic trading. And that's where, in the near future, users are going to be able to let AI trade their accounts. Now, that may be a good idea or a bad idea, but the stock is popping right now. I want to go to our Wi-Fi interactive here and just show you what meme stocks overall have been doing this week. We've seen a lot of hot money chasing some of these smaller guys. And you can see hood here at the top. That's up 21%.

但你提到了比特币，这正是本文的重点，因为我做了一个关联性比较，采用滚动季度的方法，即63个交易日。这只给你展示了每个单独绘制的一年走势图。在文章中，我对关联性进行了更深入的分析。但关键是，Robinhood最近表现相当出色，而这正值比特币下跌之际。现在，如果你看看自3月30日低点以来它们的表现就会发现，Robinhood大幅上升，而比特币一直在下跌。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But you mentioned Bitcoin, and that's really the focus of the article because I ran a correlation comparison, rolling quarter, so 63 trading days. And this just shows you a one-year chart of each of them plotted individually. In the article, I show you the correlation in a little bit more depth. But the point is that Robinhood has kind of taken off recently, and that's as Bitcoin is dropping. Now, if you take a look at what they have done since the March 30th lows, it's really apparent how Robinhood has just shot up while Bitcoin has been dropping there.

自去年十月以来，Robinhood就与比特币的命运紧密相连，不论其涨跌。而比特币的表现大多不尽如人意，自那时起价格几乎腰斩。所以，关键在于Robinhood能否在推出新产品的同时，保持独立交易的能力。今天还有一些消息传出，个别州对特朗普账户表示了兴趣，可能会推出他们自己的版本。我们拭目以待这些消息是否会有实质进展。不过，目前来看，Robinhood和比特币之间的关联正在减弱。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So Robinhood has been kind of tied to Bitcoin's fortunes, whether they're good or bad, since last October. And the fortunes have been largely bad. We've seen Bitcoin basically cut in half since then. So I think the big test is, can Robinhood keep trading independently as they kind of roll out new products? They also had some news today that there's interest from states in these Trump accounts, kind of rolling out their own. So we'll see if anything comes of that. But for now, the correlation is decoupling.

好的，Jared。谢谢你们。我很感激。人工智能交易正在推动市场达到新的高点。我的下一位嘉宾表示，最近的趋势显示半导体是市场上唯一的热点。现在加入我们讨论的是Mike Dixon，威瑞森的研究和量化策略负责人。Mike，很高兴见到你。先从整体来看，Mike，你实际上认为这个市场可能在今年夏天继续上涨。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right, Jared. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it. The AI trade is powering markets to new highs. And my next guest says recent trends show semiconductors are the only story in town. Joining me now, we've got Mike Dixon, Verizon Head of Research and Quantitative Strategies. Mike, it's good to see you. Starting bigger picture, Mike, you actually think this market could keep melting up through the summer here.

所以，迈克，是什么让你有信心这么说呢？是季节性因素吗？是追逐势头吗？还是基本面看起来真的这么好？你怎么看，迈克？是的，嗨，乔希，谢谢你邀请我来。我确实认为我们正进入一个时期，许多投资者可能会这样想：已经参与交易的会问，我现在应该获利了结吗？而没参与的会问，我现在该不该进入？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So what gives you the confidence to say that, Mike? Is that seasonality? Is it momentum chasing? The fundamentals just look that good? What do you see, Mike? Yeah, hey, Josh, and thanks for having me here. Look, I do believe that we are getting into a period where I think it's fair for a lot of investors, A, that have maybe been in this trade asking, hey, should I take profits now? Or if I haven't been in the trade, you know, should I get in?

你知道，从季节性因素来看，我认为这是一个有趣的切入点。过去10年，6月和7月，大型股市平均上涨大约5%。因此，你进入了交易量较低的夏季月份，这整体上为市场带来了顺风。此外，我们还看到的另一个重要起点是基本面。我们刚刚经历了多年来最好的盈利季之一。市场的走势往往是根据情况是变好还是变坏，而不仅仅是好或坏。这个季度的总体收益超出分析师预期的幅度普遍在高达十几个百分点，这远高于往季，即便那些季度也表现良好。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And, you know, taking a look at the seasonals, I think, is one interesting place to start. You know, June and July for broad equity markets over the last 10 years, on average, up about 5%. And so you kind of enter low-volume summer months. You have really that wind at your back overall. Another thing we see as well is just the starting place with fundamentals. We've come off just one of the best earnings seasons that we have seen in many, many years. You know, markets tend to trade on things getting better or worse, not necessarily just being good or bad. And we've seen earnings surprises this quarter broadly in the high teens on beat versus what analysts expected. That's well above, you know, where things have been in prior quarters, which have also been good.

然后，是的，当我们谈论AI交易时，也就是说，你甚至可以看到，就在这周，比如戴尔昨天的表现。然后，那份报告显示，这种趋势同样影响到了惠普和其他公司。你可以看到，这种AI交易正在变得更加与企业相关，也更加聚焦于AI基础设施的构建。你在许多其他行业也能看到类似的发展。这表明整个行业正在逐渐成熟，企业盈利表现强劲，季节性因素也很有利。我认为，在纪念日之后，这可能会推动市场小幅上扬。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And then, yeah, when we talk about, you know, the AI trade, I mean, you've even seen it this week, you know, with, you know, Dell just yesterday. And then that report, you see that flow through to HP as well. You know, as a few other names, you're starting to see this AI trade become a lot more of, you know, enterprise related, you know, and a lot more of an AI infrastructure build out. And you've seen this in a number of other sectors as well. It's just very much maturing. Earnings are strong. Seasonals are attractive. I think that could set up for a little melt up here as we have Memorial Day behind us.

迈克，那如果和伊朗发生战争呢？你知道的，你认为市场几乎对这些新闻不再反应。这里会有风险吗，迈克？市场对于冲突和油价变动可能变得自满吗？其实，我们去年也见过类似的情况，特别是关于关税的消息不断来回波动。随着每一个新消息，市场的敏感度确实逐渐降低。不过，这场冲突主要会通过利率敏感的领域对股票市场产生影响。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Mike, what about war with Iran, though? You know, you suggest the markets almost, you know, stop responding to these headlines. Is there a risk there, Mike, that maybe, you know, the market gets complacent here with the conflict and the oil price move? Well, again, we saw this type of activity, frankly, last year as well with the back and forth with tariffs. As it relates to each new headline, just the market sensitivity to that has become less and less. That said, you know, that conflict is going to mainly, you know, impact the equity markets through the rate sensitive areas.

我认为当前10年期国债收益率在4.5%左右浮动，这对某些利率较为敏感的板块，如小市值和中市值股票，美国的住房建筑商等，开始造成一定压力。但如果我们看一下美国市场甚至是海外市场中更活跃的板块，比如亚洲（除中国）的AI基础设施领域，像韩国地区，他们的盈利表现非常好，高利率带来的担忧对他们来说影响不大。但对于市场的某些板块来说，这确实是个问题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And I think where the 10-year has, you know, been trading up near the 4.5% range, that has begun to put pressure on some of the broadening out, like small and mid-caps that are a little more rate sensitive, you know, home builders in the U.S. But when you turn to, like, where the real beta has been in the U.S. markets and even abroad, you know, emerging markets, you know, with that AI infrastructure play in, you know, Asia x China, like the South Korea region, earnings are just so good there that a little bit of fear on higher rates is just a non-issue. But it is an issue for some segments of the market.

因此，我认为，一些受利率影响的市场领域在过去一个月确实因为10年期国债收益率的上升而面临困境。不过与此同时，看起来双方都希望达成协议。如果真的能达成更明确的协议，我预计我提到的一些利率敏感领域，比如小盘股和住宅建筑商，在美国会有非常强劲的反应。这些领域也是对国内消费实力非常稳固的投资方向。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so, I think that some of those rate sensitive areas of the market, you know, are where, and you actually have seen that over the last month, really struggled because of that 10-year kind of creeping up. But at the same time, I mean, it does appear like both sides kind of want a deal to happen. And so, if you do get something a little more concrete there, I would really expect some of those rate sensitive areas, like I mentioned, small caps and home builders to respond very, very strongly here in the U.S. And those are also pretty solid plays on just domestic consumer strength overall.

迈克，对于芯片的走势你怎么看？自3月30日以来，这轮涨势相当惊人。你总体上看好芯片行业吗？还是觉得涨得有点过头了？是的，乔希，我总体上还是看好芯片行业的。有趣的是，就在我上台前，我听到你的嘉宾在谈论这个话题。我们已经不太习惯市场在没有最顶尖公司的参与下上涨，比如所谓的“MAG 7”和NVIDIA。然而，如果我们看看芯片领域，拿今年前25名的半导体公司来说，NVIDIA几乎是排在倒数的位置上。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Mike, what about the move in chips? I want your take there. Just a monster move off that March 30 low. Do you like the chips broadly, Mike, or no, you think it's running too hot? Yeah, you know, Josh, I like the chips broadly. I mean, one of the interesting thing on the chips, and, you know, I heard your guest, you know, talking about this right before I came on. You know, we have not been accustomed to markets, you know, going up so much without participation at the very, very top, and the Mag 7 and the NVIDIAs. Well, if we look in the chip space, if you take the top 25 semiconductors' names year-to-date, you know, NVIDIA is almost dead last on that list.

你在半导体领域的参与更广泛，不仅仅局限于GPU方面。我认为这是一个非常积极的现象。此外，你在AI基础设施建设方面也有更广泛的发展，不仅仅是GPU，还涉及到内存、CPU等方面。另一个与半导体关系密切且表现出色的领域是专注于网络和光纤的传统电信行业。很多这些发展实际上都是在构建AI的物理层面，这与企业关系密不可分。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

You have a much broader participation in the semi-space, you know, beyond just the GPU side of things. I think that's a really healthy thing to see. You know, and then additionally, you have that broader build-out, you know, just a little further down the line of the AI infrastructure place. You see things like memory, you know, CPUs. Another place that's traded really well and very closely to semiconductors is going to be the old-school telecom sector that's focused on networking and fiber optics. And a lot of this is just really about these enterprise relationships making the physical side of AI.

你知道，我确实喜欢我们在这方面看到的扩展，但很多时候，要想在这个领域有所涉猎，仅仅依靠广泛的科技投资是不够的，需要更精细的主动管理，尤其是当这个主题逐渐成熟的时候。软件领域怎么样，麦克？你知道，人们对人工智能带来的颠覆性影响感到担忧。你觉得有机会吗？还是告诉你的客户要避开？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And, you know, I do like that broadening out that we've seen there, but a lot of times it's, you know, going to take a little bit more nuanced active management to get exposure to that than just a broad technology play, you know, as this theme matures. What about software names, Mike? You know, AI disruption fears, you know, are there front and center? You see opportunity there or no, you're telling your clients, steer clear?

好的，听我说，我非常喜欢我们今天看到的软件领域表现，总体上升了5.5%。你也知道，在今年伊朗冲突之前，软件股曾下跌将近30%。基本上，这意味着大家认为人工智能将会使这些软件公司全部过时。而实际上，这完全不是真的。现在，或许其中的一些公司会受到影响，但整个行业都被一概抛弃，我认为这为深度主动管理创造了一些非常有趣的机会，可以找到一些便宜货。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yeah, look, I love what we see today just with the software space overall, up 5.5%. I mean, you saw the software names prior to the Iran conflict this year were down almost 30%, you know, basically, you know, suggesting that the, you know, AI is going to make all of these names obsolete. And the reality is that that's absolutely not true. Now, some of them, that may be the case, but you have had just a broad swath of this entire sector, you know, kind of thrown out together, which I think creates some really interesting opportunities, you know, for some deep active management to find some bargains.

当然，你已经看到，就像Snowflake在他们的公告中提到的那样，确实深度参与了那种软件领域的数据层。他们的财报发布后股价上涨了近35%，今天又上涨了5%。你也看到ServiceNow在年初受到了沉重打击，但现在回升得很好，还有Salesforce。我认为那些转换成本高、工作流程整合深的公司将会成为将AI引入市场和更广泛经济的关键角色。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And look, you've seen that, I mean, you know, Snowflake, you know, with their announcement, really involved in the data layer of that kind of software stuff. I mean, up almost 35% on their earnings report, up another, you know, 5% today. You've seen ServiceNow, which was hit, you know, really hard, you know, at the beginning of the year, also responding quite well, as well as Salesforce. And so, I think a lot of names that have high switching costs and really deep workflow integration, these are going to be the names that bring AI to market and to the, you know, just, you know, the broader economy.

所以，是的，在那个领域会有很多有趣的便宜货可以去寻找。我认为那是一个很好的地方，可以试着发掘一些机会，特别是考虑到今年到目前为止这个行业整体表现不佳。最后，迈克，假设我现在想要在股市中采取更为防御性的立场，但同时又要聪明地防御，你会有什么建议？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so, yeah, there's going to be a lot of interesting bargains to look for in that space. And I think that's a great place to look, you know, to try to uncover some of those, just given how bad the sector broadly has done thus far this year. Finally, Mike, let's say, you know, if so inclined, I want to position myself more defensively in the stock market right now, defensively but smartly. What would you suggest?

嗯，好吧，我不建议的领域之一是像消费必需品或医疗保健这样的东西。当前，当我考虑传统防御性行业时，有一个行业符合我需求，那就是公用事业领域。我这么说是因为这个行业通常跟随利率波动，并具有传统的防御型特征。但同时，它也与AI基础设施的建设有关联，比如电力需求、电网建设以及与之相关的所有事项。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yeah, well, one of the things I wouldn't suggest is, you know, something like consumer staples or healthcare. When I think of traditional defensive sectors right now, one that checks a couple boxes for me is going to be the utility space. And I say that because it does tend to trade with rates and have that traditional defensive profile. But at the same time, you do have some exposure to this AI infrastructure, you know, build out through, whether it's the power demand side of things, grid build out, everything that comes along with that.

因此，你可以获得一些进攻性的机会，但仍然保持那种与利率相关的防御性敞口。在传统的防御型行业中，公用事业是我最喜欢的选择。这就是我目前在这个领域中的首选。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So you kind of get a little bit of an offensive play, but still that kind of defensive, you know, rate sensitive exposure. So of the traditional, you know, defensive sectors, utilities would be my favorite play for that reason. You know, and that's kind of my favorite at this point, just within that bucket.

迈克，很高兴见到你。谢谢。接下来，我们将关注霍尔木兹海峡的局势，因为白宫和伊朗领导人之间传出相互矛盾的信息。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Mike, always great to see you. Thank you. Thank you. Coming up, the Strait of Hormuz hanging in the bounds with conflicting messages from the White House and the Iranian leaders.

接下来，我们将在《市场主宰》中深入探讨。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《市场主导》中，我们将深入探讨这个问题。

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接下来在《市场主宰》中，我们将深入探讨这一话题。

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接下来在《市场主导》节目中，我们将深入探讨这个话题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination.

接下来，在《市场主宰》中，我们将深入探讨这一话题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《市场主宰》中我们将深入探讨。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination.

市场统治。接下来，我们将在《市场统治》中深入探讨这一话题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. We'll dive into it next on Market Domination.

接下来，我们将在《市场统治》节目中深入探讨这个话题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《市场主宰》节目中，我们将深入探讨这个话题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《市场主宰》节目中，我们将深入探讨这个话题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

我们接下来将在《市场主宰》中深入探讨这一点。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我们将在《市场主导》节目中深入探讨这个问题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

我们将在《市场主导》中深入探讨这一话题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我们将在《市场主宰》节目中深入探讨。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《市场主宰》中，我们将深入探讨这个话题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《市场主导》中深入探讨。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我们将在《市场主导》中深入探讨。特朗普总统在社交媒体上分享了关于与伊朗可能达成协议的最新消息，但两国在霍尔木兹海峡的未来问题上存在冲突。雅虎财经的华盛顿记者本·沃尔谢克尔现在加入了我们的讨论。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We'll dive into it next on Market Domination. Well, President Trump shares an update on social media about a possible deal with Iran, but the two nations clashing over the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Yahoo Finance's Washington correspondent, Ben Wershkel, joining us now.

好的，本，在你的故事中，我的朋友，你指出特朗普说没有通行费，自由航运，对吧？但伊朗在谈论对霍尔木兹未来的管理。这听起来不太一致，对吗，本？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right, Ben, in your story, my friend, you point out Trump is saying no tolls, unrestricted shipping, right? But Iran is saying and talking about future administration of Hormuz. That sounds incompatible, Ben, is it?

是的，是的。“不兼容”这个词在这里非常合适。而且我觉得今天早上的情况也很具有象征意义，因为有两个新的信息几乎同时在一个小时内发布。正如你提到的，今天特朗普传达的信息是他正在考虑对与伊朗的整体协议做出最后决定。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yeah, yeah. Incompatible is definitely a good word here. And I think it was sort of emblematic this morning because there's these two new messages that all came within about an hour of each other. As you mentioned, Trump's message today is that he is looking to make a final determination on the overall deal with Iran.

但他的一个重要底线是保持霍尔木兹海峡的开放。他谈到要确保交通的自由流动，并让所有滞留的船只离开。然而，这件事的复杂之处在于，就在他发表声明的一小时前，伊朗外交部长传出消息，称他与霍尔木兹海峡对面的阿曼进行了新的会谈，商讨他们所谓对该海峡未来的管理方式。大家普遍认为这实际上是关于收费的暗示。这两者如何运作尚不明确。但这并不意味着短期内没有可能。我们看到的一份协议草案包括在60天内保持霍尔木兹海峡的开放。但这也表明，很明确的是，伊朗对在霍尔木兹海峡实施收费有长期的野心。他们是否能够成功，是否能够让阿曼支持，是否能够让全世界同意，这些都还需拭目以待。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But one of his top red lines here is an open Strait of Hormuz. He talked about a free flow of traffic and getting all these stranded ships out. But what's complicated here is that literally one hour prior, a message from Iran came out from their foreign minister that he had a new call with Oman right across the Strait of Hormuz for further talks on what they described as their future administration of the strait. Everyone reads that as just kind of code for tolls. How those two work is very, very unclear. It doesn't mean that there isn't a short term possibility here. The outlines of a deal we've seen are 60 days with the Strait of Hormuz open. But what it underlines is that Iran, for very certain, they have long-term ambitions here of imposing tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. Whether they can succeed, whether they can get Oman on board, whether they can make the world agree to what remains to be seen.

但这确实是他们关注的重点。他们会尽可能长时间地用这个作为谈判筹码。你提到了阿曼，本。详细谈谈他们在这一切中扮演的角色，非常有趣。确实很引人入胜，因为正如我提到的，阿曼的位置很重要。我们谈到霍尔木兹海峡的伊朗，当然，阿曼就在对面。因此，他们在那里的影响力不相上下。阿曼是美国的盟友。不过，这种来回的讨论始于一周前，当时有消息称阿曼至少在与伊朗谈论设立通行费用的机构。这个想法实际上是两国合作征收通行费用，作为收入来源。这个想法对白宫来说是行不通的，并导致了本周早些时候特朗普发出了相当显著的威胁。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But this is a real focus for them. And they're going to use this as a bargaining chip for as long as they possibly can. You mentioned Oman there, Ben. Just talk more about their role in all this, which is interesting. Absolutely. It's fascinating because Oman is, as I mentioned, they are. We talk about Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Of course, Oman is the country right on the other side there. And so they kind of have an equal level there. Oman is a U.S. ally. But what this kind of back and forth started a week ago with news that Oman was at least talking to Iran about a tolling authority. The idea here is kind of a joint effort that would impose tolls and be a revenue stream for both countries. That is a non-starter for the White House and led to a pretty remarkable threat from Trump earlier this week.

他参加了一个内阁会议，有人问到这个问题，他回答说：“阿曼会像其他国家一样行事，否则我们将不得不打击他们。” 阿曼是美国多年来的盟友。财政部昨天谈到对阿曼的新制裁，部分原因就是因为这个。这就引出了今天的新闻，阿曼和伊朗就此问题再次通话。这件事的结果如何还有待观察。正如我提到的，阿曼是美国的传统盟友，而他们并不是伊朗的传统盟友。两国关系非常复杂。值得注意的是，伊朗在这场战争中的一些袭击也波及到了阿曼。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

He was at a cabinet meeting and he was asked about this and he said, "Oman will behave just like everyone else or we'll have to blow them up." Oman is a U.S. ally going back for decades. The Treasury talked yesterday about new sanctions on Oman partly because of this. And that brings us to today where there's this news of yet another call between Iran and Oman on this. How this works out remains to be seen. As I mentioned, Oman is a traditional U.S. ally. They're also not a traditional Iranian ally. They have a really complicated relationship. And it's worth noting that some of Iran's strikes during this war have struck Oman.

他们还没达到最好的状态，但至少开始对话。这是非常重要的，特别是如果这些谈判能够进一步推进，因为这两个国家掌控着这条水道。Ben，我的意思是，总的来说，如果你现在跟华盛顿的人交谈，你会怎么说？大多数人是不是对你说：“你知道吗，我认为我们会从中达成一个真正持久的协议”还是说“这感觉更像是一个非常脆弱的暂停”？是的，我想，持久这个词并不是我最近在华盛顿听到很多的。60天是个重要的时间段，一个协议会很重要，但这并不意味着冲突的结束。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So they're far from kind of best close on this, but they are at least talking. And this is really significant if these talks progress, partly because these are the two countries that control this waterway. Ben, I mean, just bottom line, when you're talking to people in Washington right now, what would you say, I mean, this sort of the bet is? Is it most people telling you, you know what, I think, yes, we're going to get a real durable deal out of this or no, this feels like kind of just a very fragile pause? Yeah. I don't think durable is a word that I'm definitely hearing a lot these days in Washington about this deal. 60 days is significant. A deal would be significant, but it doesn't mean the kind of end of the conflict.

有趣的是，我不仅关注华盛顿的人，还关注华盛顿和市场的人。华盛顿/市场的人将同意这样的总体评估。目前稳定性不强，情况脆弱，但对市场来说暂时还可以。这个协议的安排是60天内完全开放霍尔木兹海峡，然后再进行核谈判。在60天内解决核谈判真的很有挑战性，这样60天后我们可能会回到起点。但拥有60天的开放海峡，尽可能多的石油通过，这是一个对市场有利的信号。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

What's also interesting is I'm focused a lot, not just on Washington folks, but on Washington/market folks. And Washington/market folks will agree with that overall assessment. Not strong possibilities for durability right now, fragile, but that's fine for markets, frankly, for the moment. The way this deal has been laid out is 60 days with a fully open street of Hormuz and then nuclear talks pushed till later. Nuclear talks being solved in 60 days is really ambitious, so that we could be kind of right where we began in 60 days. But 60 days of an open street with as much oil passing through as possible is a market-positive full stop.

没有任何限制。这对市场来说是积极的，对全球市场也是如此。所以，即使货运公司普遍认为我们不确定伊朗是否会长期征收通行费，也不确定封锁是否会在60天内重新开始，但至少对于当前的市场来说，这确实是个好消息。好的，本，谢谢你，先生。很感激。台北的Computex展会将在周二拉开帷幕。再一次，AI领域都离不开NVIDIA。其CEO黄仁勋提前一周到达台北，为展会做准备。更多信息请关注雅虎财经和科技编辑Dan Halley。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

No caveats there. That is positive for markets. That's positive for global markets. So it would be significant, even if the assumption among shippers is that we don't know if Iran's going to impose tolls long-term, whether the blockade's going to come back in 60 days. It's a real positive for right now, at least for markets. All right, Ben. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. Computex, kicking off in Taiwan on Tuesday. And once again, all roads in AI go through NVIDIA with CEO Jensen Wang arriving in Taipei a week ahead of the show. For more, bringing out Yahoo Finance and Tech editor Dan Halley.

好的，丹。台北国际电脑展就要到了。丹尼尔，你会关注些什么呢？是新芯片、合作伙伴关系，还是即将到来的伟大人工智能愿景？你在听些什么呢？我想大家肯定都在关注芯片。不光是英伟达，还有AMD、英特尔、高通，他们都会参展。英特尔和高通的CEO，李步昕和克里森·阿曼，都将在活动中发表主题演讲。所以，你可以期待一些与芯片相关的公告，无论是在数据中心方面还是在消费市场。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right, Dan. So Computex is here. What are you going to be watching for, Daniel? Is it new chips, partnerships, the great AI vision of what's to come? What are you listening for? I think everybody's going to be listening for chips for sure. And it's not just, you know, NVIDIA. It's going to be A&B, Intel, Qualcomm. They're all going to be there. Intel and Qualcomm CEOs, Lip Bhutan and Krishan Oman, they will both be giving their own keynotes at the event. And so, you know, you expect there to be some kind of announcements regarding chips, whether that's at the data center or on the consumer side.

但是，你知道，正如你提到的，显然NVIDIA将成为无法忽视的巨头。他们正在自己举办一个名为GTC台北的活动，这个活动与Computex展会紧密相关。GTC台北活动会在6月1日开始，而Computex展会则在6月2日启动。在GTC台北活动中，黄仁勋将发表主题演讲，可能会提供关于Vera Rubin的一些更新。这是该公司的下一代芯片，他本周早些时候也稍微透露了一些新产品的信息。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But, you know, obviously, as you noted, NVIDIA is going to be the 800-pound gorilla in the room. They're literally hosting their own event called GTC Taipei, which is sort of in conjunction with the Computex event. That kicks off on June 1st. Computex itself kicks off on June 2nd. But at GTC, Jensen Wang will give his keynote and, you know, provide perhaps updates, obviously, on Vera Rubin. It's the company's next-generation chips, as well as some new product that he kind of teased earlier this week.

正如他所说，他这周一直在台湾。他一直在会见不同的公司合作伙伴。他展示了公司未来在台湾的总部，这个总部将容纳4000名员工，外观与他们在加州的总部类似。他还提到，他们在这个国家的支出大幅增加。他说，大约四五年前是从大约100亿美元到150亿美元，现在每年在这里的投资已经增加到1000亿美元，并将朝着1500亿美元迈进。他们正在大举投资这个地方。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

As he said, he's been in Taiwan for the week. He's been meeting with different company partners. He showed off the company's future headquarters there that will house 4,000 employees and look similar to the headquarters they have in California. He also had mentioned that the spending that they're doing in the country has gone through the roof. From about $10 billion to $15 billion about four or five years ago, he said. To $100 billion to going towards $150 billion a year. They're pouring money into this place.

显然，目前有很多努力是为了将芯片产业带回美国或转移到美国。然而，很明显，从NVIDIA和AMD的行动来看——顺便说一下，AMD本周在台湾宣布了数十亿美元的投资——可以明显看出，在芯片领域，没有人会在短期内放弃台湾。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Obviously, there's been a lot of emphasis on getting the chip industry back into the U.S. or moving to the U.S. But clearly, you know, from what NVIDIA is doing, AMD, by the way, they announced billions of dollars in investments this week in Taiwan. You could clearly see that nobody is going to be abandoning Taiwan anytime soon when it comes to chips.

好的，丹，我想问你一下，这个事件在多大程度上受到地缘政治的影响呢？活动是在台北举行的，那里的商业正在蓬勃发展。但当然，中国和台湾之间一直存在紧张关系。那么，华尔街和投资者是否已经习惯了这种紧张局势，丹？我想是的。这种局势显然已经存在多年，早在我们看到的与人工智能相关的芯片爆发之前就已经存在。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yeah, Dan, I wanted to ask you about that. Just how much of this event has sort of taken place in the sort of shadow of geopolitics here? It's taken place in Taipei where, you know, business is booming. But of course, always the tension between China and Taiwan. I mean, has Wall Street and investors just sort of learned to live with that tension, Dan? I think so. I mean, you know, it's obviously existed for years and years and years prior to just, you know, the kind of chip explosion that we've seen when it comes to AI.

最近，我觉得，你知道，美国公司在投资方面的动向，尤其是在特朗普以及他之前的拜登任内推动公司增加投资，并鼓励供应商迁往美国的计划。所以，你可能会想，那么这些资金到底流向了哪里呢？你一直在台湾进行这些投资，我还以为你打算把这些投资转移到美国来。这种情况可能会令特朗普政府感到不满。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

More recently, I think, you know, the investments that we've seen from the companies in the U.S., you know, and that kind of push by Trump and then prior to him, Biden, to get companies to invest more and move their suppliers or have suppliers move to the U.S. So, you know, you could see, you know, you could get a line of thinking where you go, well, you know, gee, where's that funding going? You know, you're making all these investments in Taiwan. I thought you were supposed to be moving them over here. You could see that potentially kind of rubbing the Trump administration the wrong way.

我们现在只能走一步看一步。到目前为止，还没有什么明确的结果。显然，人们越来越关注伊朗的情况。不过，他们继续在美国以外的地区投资，这一点是无论如何都需要进行的。但正如我所说，这可能在未来会成为他们的一大挑战。丹，谢谢你，先生。我很感激。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We'll just have to see at this point. There hasn't been anything to come out. You know, obviously, there's more focus on what's going on in Iran. But, you know, the idea that they continue to invest outside of the U.S., they're going to have to do that regardless. But like I said, you could see that potentially becoming an issue for them going forward. Dan, thank you, sir. Appreciate it.

接下来，一位Anthropic投资者将分享他对人工智能投资领域的看法。这就是下一期的《市场主导》。谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢。而令人惊叹的崛起正在重燃硅谷的IPO梦想，并引发关于人工智能热潮的新问题。Bessemer风险投资公司的合伙人拜伦·迪特尔将加入我们讨论。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Coming up, an anthropic investor shares his thoughts on the landscape for AI investing. That's next on Market Domination. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Stunning rise is reviving IPO dreams across Silicon Valley and raising fresh questions about the AI boom. Byron Dieter, partner at Bessemer Venture Partners, joins us here to discuss.

拜伦，很高兴见到你，我的朋友。我们从这里开始吧，拜伦。你是Anthropic的投资者。本周我们那边有个大新闻，对吧？Anthropic完成了一轮融资，估值达到了9650亿美元。这样就超越了OpenAI。曾经有段时间，拜伦，我觉得你把Anthropic视为OpenAI的一个竞争对手。现在很多人都感觉，Anthropic似乎夺得了金牌，可能是目前全球最热门的AI公司。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Byron, always good to see you, my friend. Let's start here, Byron. You're an investor in Anthropic. And we had some big news there this week, right? So, Anthropic closed a funding round at a $965 billion valuation. So, it rockets past open AI. You know, there was a time, Byron, when I think you kind of, you thought of Anthropic as kind of a sort of open AI's rival. It now feels to a lot of people, I think, like Anthropic kind of took the gold, maybe the hottest AI company on the planet.

所以，我很好奇，Byron，你觉得那里发生了什么变化？是Claude在开发者中的势头增强了吗？还是说企业的采用和收入的加速呢？到底是什么变化使得情况不同了？是的，Josh，很高兴和你在一起。感谢你的邀请。变化的结果是估值，但原因是根本的业务进展。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So, I'm curious, Byron, you know, what sort of changed there in your opinion? You know, was it just Claude's momentum with developers, Byron? Was it the adoption, the enterprise, the revenue accelerated? What changed here? Yeah, it's always great to be with you, Josh. Thanks for having me. And the valuation was the effect. A lot of people focus on that, but the cause was the fundamental business progression.

我们在有生之年或者在商业历史中，都很少见过这样的公司。他们的增长速度惊人，每年都以大约10倍的速度增长。从最初的1亿美元到去年达到90亿美元，今年他们计划再增长10倍，这似乎难以想象，年末有可能接近1000亿美元的营收。而据达里奥最近分享的消息，他们在第一季度就实现了80倍的增长，这超过了他们计划的10倍增长速度，达到了8000%的增长率。能够在已经庞大的收入基础上实现这样的增长，实在是无法想象，也没有先例可循——年初的时候，他们的收入规模大概是100亿美元。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And we have not seen a company like this in our lifetimes or, frankly, in the history of business. They have been growing at a rate of about 10x a year, year over year over year, from the early days of $100 million to the billion to the $9 billion last year. They had modeled to grow another 10x this year, which seemed inconceivable, the idea of closing in on potentially $100 billion run rate at the end of this year. And as Dario recently shared, they grew 80x run rate in Q1. So, 8x above the 10x run rate that they had been modeling for, 8,000% run rate growth. Absolutely unimaginable and unprecedented to do that on a massive revenue base, again, entering the year at, you know, call it $10 billion.

从市场和竞争的角度来看，重要的是，他们在大约一年前还落后于OpenAI，但增长速度相似。现在，他们已经超越了OpenAI。在今年第二季度，他们在增长速度和规模上完全压倒了OpenAI。现在，他们成为了AI领域无可争议的领导者。他们不仅在企业领域处于领先地位，而且凭借云应用和模型，在消费市场上也显得非常有前途，并且真的在引领这场竞争，继续保持领先的地位。你知道的，谈到这些公司，像Byron、Anthropic、OpenAI，什么更重要？是分销、规模，还是模型质量？请帮我们理解一下。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And the important thing from a market and competitive statement is that they'd been trailing OpenAI about a year in arrears, but at a similar growth rate. They just blew past them. And so, in the second quarter of this year, the slope of their line and the absolute scale has just crushed OpenAI. And so, they are now the unquestioned leader in AI. They have open running room now, not only as the enterprise leader, but as a very credible long-term leader on the consumer side with the cloud app and models. And they really are leading this race, and the price is theirs to continue to hold. You know, when you think about these companies, Byron, Anthropic, OpenAI, what matters more? Like, is it the distribution, the scale? Is it the model quality? Help us understand.

是的，我的意思是，坦率地说，我认为这首先要从团队开始，然后是模型质量。最终，市场已经证明足够聪明，可以解决剩下的问题。但是，Anthropic 做得非常好的一点是通过所有的大型云服务商建立了分销渠道，并且拥有领先的API企业平台。因此，现在你看到的真正差异，以及推动其加速发展的原因，是各大公司正在将其设计融入其中。他们正在基于这些技术构建应用程序，企业在建立依赖于这些技术的内部系统。他们在Anthropic的模型、开放接口、MCP服务器和API访问之上构建系统。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yeah, I mean, frankly, I think it starts with team and then goes to model quality. In the end of the day, the market has proven smart enough to then figure the rest out. But what Anthropic has done a wonderful job of is securing distribution through all of the hyperscalers and having the leading API enterprise platform. And so, what you see now and the real difference and what's driven a lot of their acceleration is that businesses are designing them in. They're building apps on top of them. Enterprises are building internal systems that depend on them. And they're building systems on top of the Anthropic models and their open interfaces and the MCP servers and the API access.

这更加可持续。在很多情况下，这形成了永久性的收入，至少为他们构建整个AI平台提供了基础收入。这实际上是这种巨大加速的基础。我认为这就是市场对他们的领先地位感到兴奋的原因。既然我们请到了你，Byron，让我们稍微展开讨论一下。请你来谈谈我们现在的IPO市场。你怎么看待这个市场？在你看来，它目前有多健康？你认为未来会如何发展？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And that's much more sustainable. That's permanent revenue in many cases and at least foundational revenue for them to then build their entire AI platforms on. And that's really the basis of this massive, even further acceleration. And I think what has the market so excited about their leadership ahead. Let's broaden this out a bit, Byron, while we have you. You look at our IPO market right now, Byron. Give me your take on that. How healthy does it look to you? And where do you see it headed from here?

好吧，我的意思是，我们在IPO市场上经历了一些历史上非常糟糕的年份。这一点一开始就值得注意。自从2021年的市场回调后，很多年市场都异常冷清。我们有幸成功推出了几次IPO，我们的一些风险投资同行也做到了这一点。但是，这段时间里，IPO市场的速度极其缓慢和历史性地低迷。不过，这种情况即将在资金方面发生变化。今年，我们可能会看到三个总市值达到3万亿美元的IPO，其中包括将在接下来几周内上市的SpaceX。此外，据报道，OpenAI和Anthropic也正在考虑在下半年上市。这三家公司如果上市，总市值都可能超过一万亿美元，这将极大地打破历史纪录，在资金集中和使用方面产生重大影响。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Well, I mean, we've had some historically bad years in the IPO market. It's probably worth noting to begin with. Coming out of the market pullback in 2021, it was crickets for many years. We were fortunate to get a few IPOs out, as were a number of our venture peers. But it was incredibly and historically slow. That's about to change in a dollar basis. We may have $3 trillion IPOs this year with SpaceX in the next couple of weeks. And then reportedly open AI and Anthropic, both considering second half listings. All three of those could debut north of a trillion dollars, which would absolutely blow records out of the water for capital concentration and deployment.

虽然我认为我们暂时还不会看到大量涌现的情况，但我们听说，我们自己的投资组合中正在形成潜在项目。这确实如此。不过，我认为这些项目真正开始出现会在下半年。然后，希望明年上半年，局面会全面打开，我们期望看到这三家公司成功上市。届时，将会有大量快速跟进者。这样，公共市场将首次有可交易的软件公司和人工智能企业。到目前为止，进行交易的唯一方式是通过硬件和一些大型云计算服务提供商间接实现。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Although I don't think we're going to see the flood of quantity yet to follow them. We hear the shadow pipeline is building within our own portfolio. It is as well. But I think those will really be second half starting to happen. And then hopefully the first half of next year, the floodgates will open and following what we hope and think will be successful listings by these three companies. Then you'll see a lot of fast followers. And then the public market for the first time will have treatable software names and AI. The only way to play the trade to date has been hardware and a diluted basis through hyperscalers and the like.

这种情况即将改变。我认为这将是下一个令人兴奋的公共市场投资的前景，特别是在人工智能交易中的软件部分。我听到一个问题，假设在接下来的12个月里，确实有这三个大型IPO上市，比如SpaceX、Anthropic和OpenAI。有些人问，公共市场能否消化如此大规模的上市？对此你怎么看？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

That's about to change. And I think that's going to be this next horizon of really exciting public market investing around the software piece of this AI trade. One question I hear asked Byron, let's say over the next 12 months, you do have these just three mega IPOs. I mean, you do. Let's say you get SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. I do hear some folks asking, can the public markets actually swallow all that? What do you say to that?

好的，我们马上就会知道结果。这还没有经过测试，但需求似乎是存在的。首先，我认为即使市值很高，他们的股票流通量也不会很大。我认为相对来说，他们会限制挂牌的比例。即便如此，从绝对金额来看，这也是一大笔金额。但这些公司是高质量、高增长的独特资产。我觉得市场会很乐于接纳这些公司。所以，我们拭目以待。SpaceX会是第一个测试对象，我认为这是三者中风险最大的一个，因为它的业务复杂，有三个不同的业务实体，盈利状况和增长前景都非常不同。理解起来有些难度。但是，埃隆现象是存在的。他是一个具有划时代意义的企业家，并且似乎支持也已经到位。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yeah, we're about to find out. It hasn't been tested, but the demand appears to be there. First off, I don't think they're going to have massive floats despite the high market caps. I do think on a relative basis, they're going to constrain the percentage listings. That will still, in absolute dollars, be a massive amount. But these companies are high quality, high growth, unique assets. And I think the market is going to be eager to embrace those. And so, we'll find out. SpaceX will be the first test, and in many ways, I think is the riskiest of the three, because it's a complex business with three different business entities, very different P&Ls, very different growth profiles. It's a lot to understand. But the Elon phenomenon is real. He's a generational entrepreneur, and the support appears to be there.

所以，如果那个项目进展顺利，将对Anthropic和OpenAI带来巨大的好处。因为从许多方面来看，它们的上市过程更加简单，公司的估值和财务状况也比较容易理解。你知道吧，Byron，你在硅谷投资已经很久了。有些嘉宾在这档节目中说过，比如就在本周，有人表示不太确定，现在这个热门的AI趋势有点过热了，感觉有点像当年的"互联网泡沫"。你怎么看？Byron，有可比性吗？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so, I think if that one goes well, it will speak incredibly well for Anthropic and OpenAI, which in many ways are much more straightforward listings with multiples you can put on their businesses and pretty understandable financials. You know, you've been investing, Byron, in Silicon Valley a long time. I do have guests who come on this show. I had one just this week who said, I don't know, man, this great AI trade-in trend, it's feeling kind of hot. It's feeling a little bit feverish. I'm getting some dot-com vibes, he says. What do you think? Is there a comparison, Byron?

这次的机会有所不同。与互联网浪潮前的流量循环不同，这里是收入先行。显然，从宏观角度来看，互联网趋势确实取得了巨大成就。但市场猛然超前，远超业务模式，并花费了十年时间来显现。而现在的情况正好相反：财务数据已经到位，需求也已存在，这是真实的收入。事实上，Sam和Dario都表示，如果有更多的供应，他们的增长会更快。虽然这听起来几乎不可想象，但再一次说明，如果他们有更多的供应和能够提供更多的计算和基础设施，那么在第一季度ADXL增长率本可以更高。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

There is, in terms of the opportunity. I think the difference here is that you had this traffic cycle that preceded revenue in the internet wave. And obviously, the internet trend in a macro sense went on to achieve great things. But the market got massively ahead of itself and way ahead of the business models, and it took a decade for those to reveal themselves. We've got the reverse here. The financials are there. The demand is there. This is real revenue. In fact, both Sam and Dario have said they would be growing faster if they had more supply. And that seems almost inconceivable, but again, this ADX run rate growth in Q1, it would have been faster if they had more supply and could provision more compute and more infrastructure.

我们仍然处于这个发展的初期阶段。这些市场和总可供市场（TAM）比我们在云计算中看到的要大10倍，正在开辟新的领域。因此，我们会经历一些周期。我猜测数据中心的浪潮在某个时候会如同以往一样，以急剧下降而结束。科技行业有过度建设的历史。不过，我认为我们仍处于软件吸收这些需求、实现盈利和经济效益的早期，这样也将会有优秀的公司被建立起来。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so, we are still in the early innings here. These markets and these TAMs are 10x larger than what we saw in cloud computing and are breaking new ground. And so, we will go through cycles. I suspect at some point the data center wave will end with a hard landing, as it always does. Tech has a wonderful history of overbuilding. But I think we're still in the early days of software sucking up that demand and the monetization and the economics playing through and thus great companies being built.

最后，拜伦，你知道我必须问一下。让观众理解一下，你不仅是在硅谷备受尊敬的知名风险投资家，还是我家乡球队旧金山49人的训练营的老板。训练营就在眼前。拜伦，你对这个赛季感觉如何？有多大信心？哦，我们非常激动，乔希。团队活动（OTAs）已经开始，新秀和选秀班看起来很棒。约翰、凯尔和他们的团队在休赛期的自由球员引进做得非常出色，我认为我们补充了一些关键拼图，包括让格林洛重返后卫群。如果我们保持健康，我们可以与任何球队一较高下。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Finally, Byron, you know I have to ask. Just so viewers understand, not only are you, of course, a well-known, well-respected venture investor out there in Silicon Valley. You're also an owner of my hometown team, the San Francisco 49ers training camp. It's right around the corner. Byron, how are you feeling about this season? How confident? Oh, we are so excited, Josh. The OTAs are beginning. The rookie class and the draft class looks great. Huge credit to what John, Kyle, and the team did in the offseason with the free agency moves. I think we picked up some key pieces, including, you know, one key returnee with Greenlaw in the linebacker core. If we stay healthy, we'll play with anyone.

我们当然希望能在二月份继续比赛。所以我们充满了乐观情绪。我们将前往澳大利亚参加赛季揭幕战，对手是公羊队，这场比赛将显示我们目前的实力。我对接下来的赛季感到非常兴奋。我刚刚看到消息，尼克·博萨可能会及时回归参加训练营，这真是个好消息。拜伦，我的朋友，总是很高兴见到你。周末愉快。很高兴见到你，乔希。也祝你一切顺利，谢谢。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And we certainly have our sights on still playing in February. So a lot of optimism. We'll be headed out to the season opener in Australia against the Rams, which will show a lot of where we stand. And incredibly excited for the season after that. Now, I was just reading Nick Bosa might be back in time for training camp, which is great news. Byron, my friend, always great to see you. Enjoy the weekend. True pleasure, Josh. You as well. Thank you.

接下来，我们将探讨一些热门话题：新晋大学毕业生原本期待能挣8万美元，如今却面临残酷现实。此外，还有一个新趋势帮助你更好地利用带薪休假（PTO）。感谢大家的关注！在近期记忆中，这是最强劲的财报季之一，激发了期权市场的多种交易，因为伟大的人工智能交易为投资者带来了更多机会。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Coming up, new college grads expect to earn $80,000, getting a rude awakening now, plus a new trend to help you take advantage of PTO. We're looking at some of today's trending stories. That's coming up next. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. One of the strongest earnings seasons in recent memory sparking plays in the options market as the great AI trade creates more opportunity for investors.

让我们和Danielle Shea一起探讨一下投资者在期权市场中的观察，这是由TastyTrade赞助的期权投资指南。Danielle，很高兴见到你。也许你可以先谈谈你对整个市场的看法。简单来说，你是否认为市场又回到了买跌追涨的状态，尤其是在人工智能相关股票方面？是这样吗？是的，没错。在我看来，这有点像2020年的翻版。我非常喜欢现在的交易环境。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Let's get into what investors are seeing in the options market with Danielle Shea for the options playbook sponsored by TastyTrade. Danielle, good to see you. Maybe start, Danielle, your thoughts kind of on the broader market. And it sounds like what you're saying in simple terms is we have a market that's become just sort of, you know, buy the dip and chase momentum again, especially around those AI names. Is that it? Yes, that's correct. To me, it strikes me as a little bit of 2020 2.0. I'm loving the trading environment.

我们看到的趋势非常强劲，势头非常好。同时，随着人工智能革命的发展，市场上出现了很多新公司。这为零售交易者提供了很多机会，尤其是因为许多新公司的股票价格较低。我们观察到市场势头强劲，期权交易的量也很大。此外，您还提到交易者可获得的产品角色，这提供了更多方式让人们对股票进行杠杆押注。能否为我们介绍一下其中的一些产品？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And what we're seeing is really strong trends, great momentum. And we're seeing a lot of new names coming out into the market, too, with the AI revolution. So it's provided a lot of opportunity for retail traders, especially particularly because a lot of these new names are lower priced. We're seeing a ton of momentum and a ton of options volume. Yeah, you also highlight here the role of products available to traders, just more ways for people to make leverage bets on stocks. Walk us through some of those.

所以，当你查看“七大科技股”时，会发现很多这些公司的股票变得非常昂贵。对于进入市场的散户投资者来说，这就增加了在这些长期股票上投资或者在期权市场进行交易的难度，因为那些期权的价格可能达到三千或四千美元一个看涨期权。不过，例如，你可以选择投资微软的两倍杠杆ETF，代码是MSFU。这会比直接购买微软股票便宜很多。当然，由于这是一个两倍杠杆的产品，它的波动性会更大。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So when you look at the mag seven, a lot of these names have gotten really expensive. Right. And so especially for retail traders coming into the market, it makes it more difficult to invest in these long term stocks or trade in the options market when you see those options prices costing you, you know, three thousand, four thousand dollars per call. But for example, you know, you have Microsoft, you can buy 2x ETF on Microsoft MSFU. This is going to come at a substantial discount. Now, yes, that is going to be more volatile because this is a two times product.

作为一名期权交易员，你知道的，我喜欢波动性。波动性意味着机会。所以我们交易那些类型的股票。你会发现有两倍杠杆的ETF，还有特斯拉和AVGO。Cloudflare也有一个这样的产品，而且每天都有更多这样的产品推出。Danielle，对于这些产品，你总体上怎么看？你觉得它们是健康的吗，还是可能在上涨行情背后制造风险？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

However, as an options trader, you know, I love volatility. Volatility equals opportunity. So we trade names like those. You know, you can find 2x ETFs and Tesla and AVGO. There's one in Cloudflare as well. And there's more coming out every day. Those kinds of products, Danielle, do you just sort of broadly, do you see them as a, are they healthy, Danielle, or no, potentially create, you know, risk underneath the rally?

当然，如果你购买2倍杠杆的ETF产品而不是购买实际的股票，会带来更大的风险，因为它的波动性更大。但对于我个人而言，作为一个期权交易员，我已经习惯了这种波动性。因此，我总是告诉我们的交易员，只承担与你个人账户和风险承受能力相适应的风险。所以，不管我是在看2倍ETF还是普通股票，我都会应用我一贯使用的模式，关注这些模式中的入场和出场点。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Certainly, it will bring you some more risk, you know, if you're buying a 2x ETF product rather than the actual product itself, because it's going to move more, right? It's going to move at multiple. However, I, for me personally, as an options trader, I'm accustomed to volatility. So I always just tell our traders to only take on risk that's appropriate for your own individual account and your own risk tolerance. And so, you know, I just apply the same patterns that I always apply, whether I'm looking at a 2x ETF or the regular stock itself and focus on those patterns with the entry and exit points.

让我们也谈谈一些具体的股票。你提到我们的戴尔在财报公布前收于大约317点。然后，它的股价明显飙升。看起来你在说，Danielle，期权交易者们预期会有不错的财报，但可能没有预料到会这么好。在期权市场上看财报时，我们通常会看到在事件前有一个预期的波动幅度。而实际上，尤其是在这个季度，我们看到有很多公司公布的数据超出预期波动幅度的两倍甚至三倍。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Let's talk about some specific names, too. You mentioned our Dell closed at around 317 before earnings. And then, of course, just exploded higher. And it looks like you're saying, Danielle, the options traders, they, they expected good earnings, but maybe, maybe not that. Right. So when we're looking at earnings in the options market, we're typically going to see an expected move before that event. And what happens, and especially what's happened a lot this quarter, is we've seen so many companies come out with 2x or even 3x what was the expected move.

这些走势绝对是现象级的。它们真正反映了人工智能革命的核心，因为它们表示这些股票被错误定价了。当公司发布如此惊人的财报表现时，这就告诉我们，基本面是扎实的。有人可能会因为这场人工智能革命而开始质疑是否存在泡沫，但实际上，如果你仔细看财报季，许多这样的上涨都是有真实基本面支持的。这就是为什么即使交易者不喜欢直接交易财报，他们也应该关注财报的重要性。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

These kind of moves are absolutely phenomenal. And they really speak to the heart of the AI revolution, because what they're doing is they're saying, you know what, these stocks are, they're mispriced. And so when you come out and you have an earnings move like this in a company, it's telling us that the fundamentals are there. People can start to call for a bubble due to this AI revolution. But the fact of the matter is that if you look at earnings season, so many of these rallies have been backed by true fundamentals. And that's why it's important for traders to pay attention to earnings, even if they don't like trading the actual report.

丹妮尔，你对Reddit持乐观态度。为什么呢？你看到了什么？我认为Reddit被不公平地归类到了软件行业的低迷中。如果你查看Reddit过去两个季度的收益表现，会发现它在事后有了显著的提升，业绩表现也非常出色。而且，很多大型语言模型都在使用Reddit的数据，因此它在某种程度上与人工智能也有联系。我喜欢它的技术走势。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Danielle, you're making a bullish bet on Reddit. How come? What do you see there? So I think that Reddit has unfairly gotten lumped in with the software apocalypse. And if you look at Reddit's earnings moves the last two quarters, it had phenomenal gaps up after the fact. It also had a really strong beat. And, you know, a lot of these large language models are using Reddit's data for their information. And so it does have a little bit of an AI play there, but I like the technical pattern.

我喜欢它从低点反弹的趋势。昨天，这只股票的交易量和动能都大幅增加。通常，当交易量增加时，股票就有可能打破熊市下行趋势。因此，我决定买入这只股票。我购买的是股票本身，也买入了一些到七月到期的Delta 70看涨期权。这只股票的卖空比例也较高。所以理想情况下，当它继续从低点回升，并突破那些阻力位时，应该会有一定的逼空现象。我把目标价定在了200美元。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

I like the fact that it's reversing off of the lows. Yesterday, we had a lot of high volume and momentum coming into the name. And typically when that volume comes in, that's when it can break out of that bearish downtrend. So I'm buying into this name. I like just buying the stock itself. I did also buy some Delta 70 calls going out into July and it has some high short float too. So ideally, as it continues to correct off of the lows, as it breaks through those areas of resistance, it should get a little bit of a short squeeze as well. So I'm targeting up to the $200 price point.

然后，如果它能突破那个位置，希望能回到之前的高点。最后，丹尼尔，你觉得MP材料怎么样？你觉得它准备好突破上升吗？是的，我很看好当前的能源领域。你知道的，这只股票价格最近有所回落，对我个人而言，这是一个卖出一些信贷差价的机会。所以我今天早上就在我们的交易室里这样做了。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And then if it could break through that, hopefully back to the previous highs. So finally, Danielle, how about MP materials? You think that one looks ready to break higher? That's right. I like the energy space right here. And you know, this one has pulled back a bit, which for me personally provided an opportunity to sell some credit spreads. So I went ahead and did that in our trading room this morning.

但我关注这些名字是因为这是人工智能革命的一部分。这支股票正在上涨并走向整合。任何与人工智能革命有关的潜在新闻都有可能出现，就像我们多次看到的那样。通常，你会发现这些股票在整合，然后某天某处有个好消息，这些股票就会飙升。所以这就是我在这只股票上所押注的。我目前的目标价是75。不过，我们还要看看当开始上涨时，空头兴趣会如何影响这支股票，以及它是否真的能大幅飙升。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But I'm looking at these names because this is part of the AI revolution. This ticker is squeezing. It's consolidating. There's any kind of potential news that could come out surrounding the AI revolution, as we have seen so many times. And so typically what happens is you see consolidation in these names. And then someday somewhere there's a positive news event and these tickers take off. So that's what I'm betting on in this ticker. I'm targeting 75 right now. But we'll see again when it gets going, how that short interest impacts the stock and if it can really explode.

丹妮尔，非常高兴你能参加这次节目。谢谢你！美国人正在重新思考他们的生活、工作以及未来的规划，包括从医疗保健的获取、休假安排到毕业后的薪资期望等方面。我们的财经专家伊内兹·弗雷将在此与我们讨论。伊内兹，我们先从 pieds-à-terre 讲起，因为这已经是旧闻了。现在，富有的退休人士正在购买被《华尔街日报》称为 meta-terres 的房产。这些大概是指靠近高端医生和医院的第二住所。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Danielle, great to have you on the show. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Americans are rethinking how they live, work and plan for the future from health care access and time off to salary expectations out of school. Y'all finance Inez Frey joins here to discuss. Inez, let's start here with the pied-a-terre, because that's old news, Inez. Wealthy retirees now buying what the journal calls meta-terres. And these are, I guess, second homes near sort of your elite doctors and hospitals.

所以，我猜你是离开了，搬到了迈阿密。你很喜欢迈阿密，但你想念你在纽约的医生。对。你有没有在迈阿密度过一个夏天？那里真的是很热。所以你在夏天的时候，会回到这里来进行医疗预约。看，这些人选择在这些地方购房或保留他们的医疗保险，比如纽约，在这里你有斯隆凯特琳纪念医院（Sloan Kettering）、西奈山医院（Mount Sinai）、雷诺克斯山医院（Lenox Hill），这些医院都可以进行手术。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So I guess this is, you left, you moved to Miami. You love Miami, but you missed your New York City doctor. Yeah. And have you ever spent a summer in Miami? It's hot down there. So you come up here for your medical appointments during the summertime. Look, yes, they are opting to buy these or to keep their meditares or to buy them in these areas where in New York you've got Sloan Kettering, you've got Mount Sinai, Lenox Hill, you have all these hospitals where you can do surgeries.

然后你可以在纽约或泽西市待着，同时保持这种联系。我认为这更多是一种"候鸟"的主题，但这些"候鸟"正在利用这里的医疗中心。你有没有试过换医生？换医生很复杂，相当麻烦，是的，相当麻烦。你会不会看到这样的情况，觉得这对像纽约市这样的地方的高端房地产市场有促进作用？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And then you can be here in New York or in Jersey City and still keep this connection. Again, I think this is part more of the Snowbirds theme, but the Snowbirds that are taking advantage of these medical centers here. And have you ever tried to switch a doctor? I mean, it is complex. It's brutal. Yeah, it's brutal. Do you think, do you look at a store like this and say, you know what, that's kind of, that's bullish for the luxury real estate market in places like New York City.

也许人们会离开，但他们还是会留下一只脚在这里。而且你知道吗，他们会付你的物业税，他们会付你的豪宅税，对吧？奢侈房产市场一直都很繁荣，尤其是在我们谈论“K经济”的时候。顺便说一下，我看到Yardini研究提到“G经济”或者“G消费者”，这指的是父母把资产传给孩子的消费者。这对他们来说是利好的。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Maybe people leave, but they keep a foot here. And you know what, they'll pay your property taxes, they'll pay your mansion tax, right? The luxury property market has always been bullish and especially when we talk about the K economy. By the way, I saw Yardini research talking about the G economy, basically, or the G consumer. That is the consumer whereby their parents are going to be passing off their assets to their kids. This is bullish for them.

我的意思是，如果你的父母在这里和迈阿密都有房子，那对孩子们来说是很好的。第二个话题，《财富》杂志推出了一篇关于“PTO最大化”的文章。这听起来像是一种职场趋势，基本上就是员工利用假期来延长有限的休假时间。你怎么看这个？我觉得这很聪明。我觉得我们都开始这么做了，比如，用三天的周末，在前面加一天，后面再加一天，这样你就可以有一个五天的旅行假期去某个地方。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

I mean, because if your parents have a place here and a place down in Miami, then it's good for those kids. Topic two, Fortune, out with a new piece, PTO maxing. This sounds like a workplace trend and it's basically employees using holidays to sort of stretch limited vacation days. What do you make of it? I think it's brilliant. I think that we are all starting to do that as well, where you take a three-day weekend and you just add a day at the front, a day maybe in the back, and then that's a five-day week trip that you can take somewhere.

如果你的假期很有限，那么你会尽量在主要假日期间延长假期，比如阵亡将士纪念日、7月4日、劳动节和感恩节。大多数人在这些假日期间不工作，因此他们会利用这些假期。在美国，大多数人每年只有10到15天假。今天的一项统计显示，你有没有看到这个消息，86%的员工在度假时仍然查看工作邮件，超过一半的人还接工作电话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So if you have limited holidays, then you start to stretch out as much as you can around the holidays that people take. Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor Day, Thanksgiving. Most people are not working on those days, so then they take those holidays that they have. And in the U.S., it's only 10 to 15 days that folks get. One stat set out today, did you see in this story, 86% of employees still check work emails while on vacation. More than half take work calls.

那么人们真的有在休假吗？近一半的员工甚至没有用完他们的带薪休假，因为他们感到内疚或承受压力。看看吧，我们与这些设备的连接如此紧密，以至于很难真正地断开联系。即使你收到某人发出的自动回复，他们仍然会收到你的邮件，所以他们仍在查看，他们还是会有所反应。你不可避免地会对某些事情做出反应。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So are people even really taking time off? And nearly half of workers don't even use all their PTO because they feel guilt or they are pressured. Look, we are connected so much with these devices that it's hard to really, really be disconnected. Even when you get the out-of-office reply from someone that you send it to, they still get that email. And so they're still checking it. They're still sort of reacting. You inevitably react to something.

尤其是当事情很重要时，我总是能收到回复。即使他们在度假，他们还是会回复邮件。几乎一半的人表示，他们在休假时会感到内疚。我是完全不这样，Inez。我一点内疚感都没有。但我会。我是认真的吗？哇哦。是的，我就是个工作狂。感谢上帝。所以你会想，噢，天哪。这就像在工作面试中问别人：“你的问题是什么？”

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And especially if it's important, I have gotten emails back. Even though they're on vacation, they still respond. Nearly half say they feel guilty about taking time off in the first place. That does not apply to me, Inez. I don't feel any guilt at all. I do. Do you really? Wow. Yeah. I'm just a workaholic. God bless. And so you think, oh my goodness. You know, it's like the job interview where you ask people what's the problem.

给我说一个缺点。哦，这主意不错。伊内斯·法雷说，你知道，我就是太爱工作了。这是我的问题。这个主意真不错，我从没想到过这一点。就用这个，伊内斯。就用这个。好的，接下来是第三个话题。《今日美国》报道说，大学毕业生期待的年薪是8万美元。实际上呢，伊内斯，你真的会拿到多少？可能更接近5.6万美元。所以差距很大。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Name a fault. Oh, that's a good idea. And Inez Faray says, you know, I just, I love work too much. That's my problem. That's such a brilliant idea. I never thought of that one. Use it, Inez. Use it. All right. Topic three. USA Today is saying college grads, college grads expect an $80,000 salary. Actual salary. Actual salary, Inez. What are you really going to get? Probably closer to 56. So a big gap.

你怎么看？这是不是说年轻人在四处打量的时候，会想，“等等，我在看房租、日用品，还有我背负的债务，我需要赚这么多钱，我需要赚8万。这就是实际工资在下降。” 基本上，这就是他们所面对的情况。他们期望的薪资比市场为这些新毕业的大学生提供的要高出2万到2.5万美元。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

What do you make? Is this young people looking around saying, hold on, I'm looking at rent. I'm looking at groceries. I got this debt. This is how much I need to make. I need to make 80. This is real wages going down. I mean, that's basically what you're looking at. They're expecting anywhere between 20 and 25 more than what the market is giving these new college grads.

他们的期望是，我会花四年时间上大学。我承担大学债务，并期待找到一份年薪80,000美元的工作。即使是工程师也期望能赚到80,000到85,000美元。然而，他们的起薪是70,000到75,000美元。我认为对教育来说情况更残酷。他们的期望是50,000到56,000美元，而教师的起薪仅为40,000到50,000美元。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And their expectations is, I'm going to go to school for four years. I'm taking on college jet. And I expect an $80,000 job. Even the engineers, engineers are expecting 80 to 85. And their starting salaries are 70 to 75. I thought it was brutal for education. They're expecting 50 to 56. And their starting is 40,000, 40 to 50,000 for a teacher.

所以，看看吧，这就是现实：工资正在下降，而大学毕业生的失业率仍然是最高的。外面的形势很糟糕。如果你与任何刚毕业的人交谈，会发现他们如果能在毕业时找到一份工作就算幸运了。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So, look, this is just the reality of the fact that wages are going down and you still have unemployment that's the highest for college grads. It's brutal out there. If you talk to anyone that's just graduating, they're lucky if they have a job as they're graduating.

好的，Nez，谢谢你。感谢你的支持。接下来，我们会继续跟进华尔街的收盘情况。请不要走开。刚刚真有意思。我们马上回来，我们马上回来。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right, Nez, thank you. Appreciate it. Coming up, we have you covered. The closing bell on Wall Street. Don't go anywhere. That was funny. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.

我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们一直在密切关注这些数据。现在我想给大家看看道琼斯运输指数。最近它们表现强劲，我会展示过去五天的总计，我们可以看到本周上涨了4%。接下来我们看看各个行业的表现。大盘科技股上涨了2.3%。今天是个重大的软件日，我们马上来看看。我们也将关注纳斯达克指数，特别是纳斯达克100指数。我们注意到，微软上涨了5.5%，博通上涨了4%，美光科技上涨了5%。但你会发现很多大公司今天都表现不佳。比如，Alphabet下跌了2.5%，特斯拉、亚马逊和英伟达都下跌了1%。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We'll be right back. We'll be right back. That is quite a tally that we've been keeping track of here. I want to show you the Dow transports as well. They have been surging recently, and I'll show you the five-day total there, and we can see it's up 4% over this week. But let's get to the sector action. There we go. We got large caps tech, tech up 2.3%. This is a huge software day. We're going to take a look at that in a second. We're going to take a look at the NASDAQ, but we're going to take a look at the NASDAQ 100%. We're going to take a look at the NASDAQ 100, and we can see Microsoft up 5.5%, Broadcom up 4%, Micron up 5%, but you'll notice a lot of the big guys underwater today. You can see Alphabet down 2.5%, Tesla, Amazon, NVIDIA, all down 1%.

让我们切换到我们的软件屏幕，可以看到这里都是绿色的。Oracle上涨了10%。我将按表现进行排序，指出一些最大的赢家。Okta上涨30%，Atlassian上涨15%，ServiceNow上涨14%，IBM上涨12%，Workday上涨12%。所以这些之前表现不佳的股票今天都在大幅上涨。今年还没有这样的情况。不过，这里有一个半导体板块，你可以看到一些赢家和输家。英特尔下跌5%，德州仪器下跌3%。同时，美光上涨5%，博通上涨4%，ARM上涨5%。顺便一提，标普500指数已经连续九周上涨。这种情况自2023年12月以来就没有发生过。整个市场依然在增长。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So let's skip over to our software screen, and here we got, that's just a lot of green. Oracle up 10%. I'm going to sort by performance to call out some of the biggest winners. Okta up 30%, Atlassian up 15%, ServiceNow 14%, IBM 12%, Workday 12%. So a lot of these underwater stocks are really gaining today. Hasn't been the case this year necessarily all year long. But here's a semis board, and you can see some winners, some losers here. Intel down 5%, Texas Instruments down 3%. Meanwhile, Micron up 5%, and Broadcom up 4%, ARM up 5%. By the way, forgot to throw this out. S&P 500 up nine straight weeks. That has not happened since December of 2023. Full market's still going here.

这是道琼斯指数。除了大盘股，我们看到了一些不同的市场表现。我之前提到过IBM，大蓝涨了12%，波音涨了1%，霍尼韦尔涨了2%，Salesforce涨了8.5%，高盛涨了1%。而一些表现不佳的股票有沃尔玛和强生，这两家公司各下跌了2.5%。此外，卡特彼勒、家得宝和默克都约下跌了1%。好的，谢谢杰瑞德。现在让我们看看房地产市场的情况，每周平均按揭利率再次上升。目前，房地产市场正在应对多种宏观因素对供求关系的挑战。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Here's the Dow. Aside from the mega caps, we got some mixed action. I called out IBM before. Big blue up 12%, but Boeing up 1%, Honeywell up 2%, Salesforce up 8.5%, Goldman Sachs up 1%. And then some of the red guys, well, we got Walmart and J&J. That's your staples trade down 2.5% each. And Caterpillar, Home Depot, Merck, all down about 1%. All right. Thank you, Jared. Well, let's look at the state of the housing market now, with weekly average mortgage rates ticking higher yet again. This comes as the housing market continues to deal with several macro headwinds to housing supply and demand.

现在我来介绍一下Realtor.com的高级经济学家乔尔·伯纳。乔尔，很高兴见到你。你提到，这是自2022年以来我们房市最活跃的一个春季。这很有趣。乔尔，是什么发生了变化呢？因为利率当然还是相对较高。利率还是相对较高，但比去年略微低一点。这小小的差异，大约30个基点，对今年春季的签约数量产生了显著影响。我们说这是自2022年以来最好的春季，这个说法是基于一个相对较低的标准，因为过去几年年销售总额接近30年来的最低点。所以我们正在取得进展。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Let me bring in now Joel Berner, Realtor.com's Senior Economist. Joel, it's good to see you. So you say here this was the most active spring for our housing market since 2022. Now, that's interesting. What changed there, Joel? Because rates, of course, still relatively elevated. Rates still relatively elevated, but a bit below where they were last year. And that small difference, about 30 basis points, has made a big difference in the terms of number of contract signings so far this spring. And we say that this is the best spring we've had since 2022. That's comparing to a pretty low bar, considering that the last couple of years have had annual sales totals near a 30-year low. So we're making progress.

我们正在走出谷底，但还没到庆祝的时候。Joel，你认为很多美国人一直在等利率大幅回落，而市场可能逐渐接受这种情况是一种新常态吗？我完全同意，我认为"新常态"是一个很好的表达。我认为卖家也正在接受这种新常态，选择降低价格。我们实际上看到销量在增加，同时降价的情况在减少。这对我们意味着，卖家在更合理的价格点进入市场，适应市场预期，而不再一开始把价格标得很高，然后一降再降，从而导致房子在市场上滞销。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We're bouncing off the bottom. But we're not popping champagne just yet. Do you think a lot of Americans, Joel, have been waiting for rates to come back down hard and that maybe the market is gradually accepting that, you know what, maybe this is kind of the new normal? I think that's exactly right. I think a new normal is the right way to put it. And I think sellers are experiencing a new normal as well, deciding to price lower. We're actually seeing sales increasing at the same time that price cuts are decreasing. So what that means to us is that sellers are coming onto the market at more reasonable price points, adjusting to the expectations of the market, and getting those homes moving without playing this game of listing it really high, then cutting it, then cutting it again, and cutting it one more time, and leaving homes on market for longer.

我们实际上看到卖家变得更加务实，并成功出售这些房屋。根据《每日抵押贷款新闻》，30年期固定贷款的利率为6.56%。你怎么看这个利率在近期到中期的走势？好吧，这真的取决于伊朗的冲突。我认为我们大致了解未来的情况，只要我们仍在怀疑停火协议是否会生效。实际上，是来自那场冲突的通胀预期导致抵押贷款利率居高不下。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We're actually seeing sellers come in more realistically and get those homes sold. Joel, 30-year fix, 656, according to Mortgage News Daily. Where do you see that headed, near to intermediate term? Well, it really depends on the conflict in Iran. I think we kind of have the base case for what it's going to look like, as long as we're still having questions about whether a ceasefire is going to go into effect or not. Really, it's the inflationary expectations coming from that conflict that are keeping mortgage rates high.

所以，如果停火协议达成，我们今年余下时间的利率可能会回落到6%出头。这大概是我们年初对利率的预测，当时还没有出现如今影响房贷利率的全球事件。所以，我认为最好的情况利率会维持在6%出头，最坏的情况则是攀升到接近7%。如果达成一个真正持久的停火协议，Joel，你认为这对房市的积极影响会很快显现吗？绝对的。我认为目前很多买家面临的是双重打击。房贷利率上升使得他们日后的月供变高，这对他们想要购买的房子来说是一个负担。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so if we see a ceasefire come through, we might get back down into the low sixes for the rest of the year. That's kind of where we had projected rates at the start of the year, before all of the events globally that are impacting mortgage rates now. So I think best case scenario is low sixes, worst case scenario is high sixes. So if we got a real durable ceasefire, Joel, there, you think the positive knock-on effects for the housing market, those could be apparent pretty quickly? Absolutely. I think what's happening right now is a lot of buyers are kind of getting a double whammy. They're experiencing higher mortgage rates that make their monthly payments higher on homes that they might be buying.

而且他们还发现日常生活开支的价格在上涨。因此，他们很难存下钱。存款减少意味着首付更小。首付更小则意味着需要为购买品融资更多。而在高按揭利率的情况下，这让许多人望而却步。所以我认为，如果我们能看到一个停火协议后按揭利率下降，剩余一年的房地产市场将会有更强的支撑。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And they're also seeing prices of just the everyday living expenses going up. So they're having a hard time saving. So less savings means a smaller down payment. Smaller down payment means financing more of a purchase. And doing that at high mortgage rates is really turning people away. So I think if we were able to see a ceasefire and seeing mortgage rates come down, we'd really have a much stronger case for the rest of the year in the housing market.

Joel，我们总是谈论全国的住房情况，但让我们来分析一下不同地区的差异。你觉得目前在全国范围内，哪些地方对买家来说有最佳机会呢？我认为一些最佳机会在南部阳光地带的市场，那里的房价发生了重大调整。比如我今天所在的德克萨斯州奥斯汀，那里的房价相比去年有了大幅度的下降。对买家来说，现在确实是个好机会，因为库存增加，房价同比下降了7%到8%。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Joel, we always talk about housing nationally, but let's just break down some of the regional differences. What are some of the best opportunities for buyers right now, Joel, as you look across the country? I think some of the best opportunities are in the Sunbelt markets where we've seen major price corrections. Places like Austin, Texas, where I'm joining you from today, has seen major year-over-year downturns in pricing. And it's becoming a really good opportunity for buyers. You know, things are really lining up in buyers' favor. Inventory is up. Prices are down, you know, 7% or 8% year-over-year.

房屋在市场上的停留时间延长了，所以你不必那么着急。我认为像奥斯汀、凤凰城和杰克逊维尔这样的一些地方，在2021年和2022年价格飙升的时候市场相对失衡，现在正在逐渐恢复到合理的价格水平，为买家提供了一个很好的购房机会。而且我们开始见证这种趋势的出现。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And homes are spending longer on the market, so you don't have to be in as much of a hurry. So I think places like Austin and Phoenix and Jacksonville, some of these places that got really out of whack in 2021 and 2022, when prices went through the roof, are now recovering back into where prices should be and offering a great opportunity for buyers to jump in. And we're starting to see that happen.

好的。Joel，你提到了一些不错的机会。那么，有哪些地方情况比较困难呢？我觉得在很多东北部的市场，情况依然艰难，库存依然很紧张。比如普罗维登斯和哈特福德这样的地方。房屋库存还没有恢复到疫情前的水平。我们看到买家在寻找机会购买房屋时遇到很多问题，因为可供出售的房屋不多，而且价格持续上涨。所以在这些地方，情况可能更具挑战性，尤其是在东北部，对卖家更为有利，而南部的市场则更有利于买家。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right. So you mentioned some good opportunities there, Joel. What are some places where it's a bit tougher? I think it's still tough in a lot of northeastern markets where inventory is still really constricted. Places like Providence and Hartford. Inventory hasn't recovered back to pre-pandemic norms yet. And we're just seeing a lot of issues with buyers having opportunities to make a move. You know, there's just not a lot of homes available and prices continue to grow. So those places might be challenging, much more in favor of sellers in the northeast especially, while markets in the south are favoring buyers.

最后，乔尔，你在这里提到，五月和六月是我们住房市场的关键月份。请解释一下，乔尔。那么作为一名经济学家，你最关注的是什么？是哪些变量？哪些指标？是这样的，我们说五月和六月非常重要，因为这是购房季节的高峰期。这个购房季节实际上与学校的安排和孩子们的暑假有关。因此，家庭往往会在这个时候考虑搬家和购房。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Finally, Joel, you do say here, May and June, you say, decisive months for our housing market. Explain that, Joel. And then what are you kind of, what are you watching most closely as an economist? Which variables? Which metrics? Right. We say May and June are really important because that's sort of the peak of buying season. You know, the buying season really relates to school schedules and kids being off for the summer. And so people looking to make a move, families are often looking this time of year to make a purchase.

所以，如果我们经过了通常是购房高峰季的时期，但购房活动远低于去年或甚至几年前的水平，我们可以预期市场不会完全恢复，因为秋季的交易活动并不多。对于精明的买家来说，秋季是寻找优惠购房的最佳时机，但这并不是交易量最大的时期。作为经济学家，我关注的是通货膨胀率，因为这正是推高抵押贷款利率的原因。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so if we come through what should be the peak of the home buying season, well below our last year level or maybe even a few years ago level, we can expect that there won't be a full recovery because there's just not as much activity in the fall. The fall is the best time to buy a home for savvy buyers looking for a deal, but not where the most volume comes in. So what I'm looking at as an economist is really the inflation rate because that's what's driving mortgage rates up right now.

我密切关注CPI（消费者价格指数）和PCE（个人消费支出），同时也密切留意签署合同的数量。这些数据可以提供销售和成交情况的前瞻性指标。在Realtor.com，我们通过观察房屋上市到签约待定的过程，来跟踪这一趋势，从而对未来几个月的成交情况有一个很好的前瞻性判断。到目前为止，四月份的合同签署情况很好，上涨了约4.5%。这让我们预期五月和六月的房屋成交可能会比我们之前预想的更强劲。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

I'm keeping a close eye on CPI and PCE, and I'm keeping a close eye on the number of contract signings that come through. That gives us a forward indicator look of how sales and closings will be. And we're able to see that at Realtor.com just by looking at from when a home is on the market to goes pending under contract. We just track that and get a good forward indication of what closings are going to look like in the months to come. And we've had a strong April so far, up about 4.5% for contract signings. So that gives us a good indication that closings in May and June might be a little bit stronger than we had anticipated.

乔，好久不见，看到你真高兴。谢谢，非常好。感谢你的邀请。接下来，我们将讨论Old Navy令人失望的一个季度如何影响到Gap的业绩预期。请听CEO的意见，马上就会播出。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Joe, always good to see you. Thank you. Very good. Thank you for having me. Coming up, a disappointing quarter for Old Navy weighing on gaps guidance. Hear from the CEO. That's coming up next.

我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们马上回来。我们马上回来。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back.

2026年日产Leaf电动车正好在汽车产业面临更高燃料成本时推出。你知道的，普拉兹·苏梅朗就在这里。加入我们，深入了解一下吧。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

The 2026 Nissan Leaf EV arriving just in time as the auto industry faces higher fuel costs. You know, find this is Praz Sumerang. Join now for a closer look.

好的，Praz。那么告诉我关于这款新的Leaf吧。我需要了解些什么？刚才那是法拉利的Luce吗？我没看清。不是，不是。看，听我说，开玩笑的话不多说了，这款日产Leaf是去年晚些时候推出的，错过了一些大的机会，我只是希望Johnny Ive没有听到我说的这些。就是这样。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right, Praz. So tell me about this new Leaf. What do I need to know? Was that the Ferrari Luce? I couldn't tell. No, no. Look, look, look, look, look, look, all joking aside, the Nissan Leaf, you know, came a little late last year, kind of missed out on the big, I mean, I just hope Johnny Ive isn't listening. That's all I'm saying.

好的，你知道，好吧。继续吧。我很抱歉。我非常尊重法拉利，不想让他们对我生气。不。这就是已经发生的事情，已经在外面传开了。好的，继续吧。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right, you know, all right. Go ahead. I'm sorry. And I respect Ferrari a lot. I don't want them to get mad at me. No. But that's been the, you know, whatever. It's been out there. It's been out there. All right, go ahead.

日产Leaf，是吧？新款Leaf发布的时候，正好赶上适用于电动车的税务优惠过期了，对吧？所以说，从人们购买电动车的时间点来看，它的推出时机不太好，错过了那波热潮。不过，它还是一款很棒的车，特别是在现在油价特别高的情况下。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Nissan Leaf, right? So it came out, the new Leaf came out a little bit after the EV tax for it expired, right? So it kind of came out at a bad time in terms of when people were buying EVs. It missed out on that. But it's a great car, and it's coming at a time when gas prices are really high.

所以说，虽然开玩笑时可能批评这个设计，但认真来说，我其实还挺喜欢这个设计的。相比上一代的Leaf，新款显得更加简洁，更具运动感，比例更紧凑。我觉得它看起来确实好很多。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So the car, I actually think, all joking aside about the design, I actually like the design. Compared to the last Leaf, it's much more, it's cleaner, it's more sporty, it's got more tighter proportions. I just think it looks a lot better.

从驾驶的角度来看，这辆车完全符合你的需求，对吧？你看，对于像你这样的家伙，Josh，这辆车不会让你大吃一惊。但是，如果你只是需要一辆上班用的车，比如从家到公司，它会让你感到舒适。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Now, from a drive point of view, it's totally what you need, right? Look, is it going to knock your socks off, a guy like you, Josh? No. But if you're just looking for a place, a car to go 9 to 5, right? Drive your 9 to 5 job, drive from A to B, it's going to be comfortable.

这是关于实用性的。这就是重点。就是实用性。从A到B。这没错。不过我得承认，电动车的驾驶体验非常顺畅。这是其中最棒的部分。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

This is about utility. This is what it is. It's about utility. Get me from A to B. Yes. But I will admit, it's a very smooth ride with EVs. That's the best part of the deal.

他们在阻尼和悬挂方面确实做得很好。起初，大家对于非常重的汽车有些担心，认为必须使用非常紧绷的悬挂系统，这样在遇到坑洼或路面不平时可能会感到颠簸。但是，他们的设计出色地解决了这个问题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

They actually did a really good job with the damping and suspension. Initially, the concern with really heavy cars is you've got to have really tight suspension that can be kind of jarring on things like potholes and ruts in the road.

他们很好地找到了平衡，汽车在运动性能和车身紧致度方面表现出色，同时在遇到路上的颠簸时也足够柔软舒适。驾驶体验和操控能力都很出色，整车非常舒适。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But they sort of made the balance work with just it's sporty enough and tight enough where you need to be and cushiony enough and soft enough when you kind of hit over some lumps and ruts in the road. So great job with it in terms of the drive sensation, the handling ability. The car is very comfortable.

我的唯一缺点就像你说的，这辆车是最让人兴奋的吗？不是。是最运动、最快速的吗？不是。它只有215马力，对吧？但是续航里程有250英里。还不错，对吧？所以这就是我们谈论的缺点。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

My only drawbacks are, like you said, is it the most exciting car? No. Is it the most sporty, fast car? No. It's only got 215 horsepower, right? But 250 miles of range. Not too bad, right? So that's what we're talking about drawback-wise.

从积极的角度来看，它大约是4万美元，甚至可能更便宜。而且你能得到不错的续航里程，无需支付燃油费用。在当今时代，这是一个很大的优势。让我问问你，和伊朗的战争，你提到过这个话题，油价可能让你看到5美元的油费。这是否会根本改变很多人对电动车的看法？还是说战争需要持续更长时间才能有影响？行业人士会说，我可能同意他们的观点，需要更持久的高油价，才会有明显影响。因为美国人喜欢他们的大型车辆和大排量V8等，通常他们愿意为此支付额外的费用。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But also, from a positive point of view, it's about $40,000, if not cheaper and lesser trims. You get that good mileage, and you don't pay for gas. And that's a big deal these days. Let me ask you, the war with Iran, you sort of referenced this, prices of the pump, maybe you're staring at $5 gas. Does that fundamentally change how a lot of people think about EVs, or no, it would have to go on for a lot longer? The industry would say, and I probably would agree with them, that you would need more sustained high gas prices, right? Because Americans, they like their larger vehicles. They like their big V8s and things like that. They're willing to pay for it for the most part.

但现在我们看到的是一种负担能力危机，不仅仅是因为汽油或汽车价格，而是所有东西都变得昂贵了。那么接下来可能会发生的就是汽车需求变得不那么紧迫了。今天的《日报》报道说，在过去的五六年里，有一百万美国人退出了新车市场。我认为这可能会让更多人去购买二手电动车。这种车真的可以算是便宜、易于操作并且维护成本低的先锋车型。然后你可能会说，我想要一辆新车。那么日产Leaf可能是一个不错的选择。我觉得这就是我们目前所处的经济环境。在美国，确实需要有一辆车才能出行。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But now we're seeing an affordability crisis, not just because of gas or car prices, but everything is expensive now. So what happens next is cars sort of get put in the back burner. We've seen that with the Journal Report today talking about how a million Americans have left the new car market in the last five, six years. I think so that sort of plays into the hand of maybe you'll see more used EVs being bought. That's real sort of the vanguard of cheap cars that are easy to operate and cheap to own. Then you might say, well, I want a new car. Nissan Leaf looks like a good option for you. So I think that's sort of where we are right now with the economy. In America, you do need to have a car to go places.

所以我大致是这样看的。我认为，对于那些希望减轻日常用车成本的美国人来说，日产Leaf现在可能是个不错的选择。顺便问一下，你认为日产能否凭借Leaf获得成功？因为从你的描述来看，Leaf给我的感觉是“好车，挑战性公司”。是的，是的。看看，日产还有一款名为Aria的电动车，这是一款更大、更好、更豪华的电动车。他们不得不把这款车从市场上撤回，因为它的销量不如预期，他们在这上面亏钱了。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So that's sort of how I see it. I think the Nissan Leaf at this point probably is coming at a good time for Americans who are looking for a little relief from sort of the ongoing day-to-day costs of having a car. By the way, do you think Nissan can capitalize on the Leaf? Because your story kind of reads like with the Leaf, I read it like good vehicle challenge company. Yes, yes. Look, Nissan had a car called the Aria EV, which is a bigger, nicer, more luxurious EV. They had to pull that car from the market because it wasn't selling as well as it needed to be, and they're losing money on it, right?

这些汽车，传统车企在电动车上有些亏损，不幸的是。我认为Leaf对他们来说制造成本更低一些，所以情况不像Aria那么糟。而且还涉及到关税和其他各种因素。因此，我认为这就是为什么尼桑公司面临挑战，但这可能是帮助他们重回正轨的一个因素。最后，我想了解一下您的看法。还有另一条消息，据CNBC报道，有一项众议院法案，PRAZ，旨在阻止与中国有关的汽车制造商。但有人称这实际上可能导致美国禁止销售新的梅赛德斯-奔驰汽车。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

These cars, the legacy guys are sort of losing money on these EVs, unfortunately. I think the Leaf is a bit more cheaper for them to make, so it's not as bad as the Aria was. And then plus you have tariffs and all kinds of things like that. So I think that's why Nissan is a challenge company, but this might be part of the mix of getting them back on track. Finally, I just want your take on this. This other story, CNBC reporting that you have this House bill, PRAZ, which I guess is aimed at blocking Chinese-linked automakers. But they're saying it could actually result in a U.S. ban of new Mercedes-Benz vehicles.

那里发生了什么事？是啊，当我第一次看到这个标题时，我想，这不可能是真的。但实际上，有一个名为《2026年机动车辆现代化法案》的法案, 主要内容是禁止任何由外国对手政府直接或间接持股的汽车制造商在美国进口、销售或制造汽车，比如中国、朝鲜等国家。奔驰最大的个人股东是中国国有汽车制造商北汽，持股比例接近10%。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

What is going on there? Yeah, when I first saw this headline, I thought, this can't be real. But essentially, there's a bill called the Motor Vehicles Modernization Act of 2026 and basically prohibit automakers that have any, quote, any direct or indirect equity interest by a foreign adversary government, in which case China, North Korea, countries like that, from importing, selling, or manufacturing vehicles from the U.S. Mercedes-Benz's largest individual shareholder is state-owned Chinese automaker BAIC with an almost 10% stake.

此外，据CNBC报道，我之前不知道的是，拥有吉利中国汽车制造商的吉利亿万富翁还拥有梅赛德斯10%的股份。所以，从所有权的角度来看，梅赛德斯可能有两个潜在问题。但是，根据这项法案的写法和报告的结果，他们表示并没有为梅赛德斯留出任何例外。按目前的法案来看，这确实会对梅赛德斯造成影响。不过，这只是一项众议院法案，距离最终实施还有很长的路要走。还需要经过委员会的审查、参议院的修改，之后他们还需要达成妥协，总统还需签字，所以路途漫长。但就目前法案的内容来看，对梅赛德斯不太有利。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

In addition to that, CNBC reports that, I didn't know this, the Geely billionaire who owns the Geely Chinese automaker owns another 10% of Mercedes. So they have two separate potential issues from ownership point of view from Mercedes. But the way this bill is written and the way reporting works out, they're saying that there is no exception carved out for Mercedes. And on the face of the bill as it is right now, it would definitely ban Mercedes. Now, this is just a House bill. It's got a long way to go. Committees got to go through the Senate markups got to be, then they got to come into a compromise and Prensen's got to sign it. Long way to go. But on the face of this bill, it does not look that great for Mercedes.

好的。这是一个重大新闻。我们会继续关注。谢谢你，Braz。由于Old Navy在第一季度的表现令人失望，Gap下调了其销售预期，这引发了对该品牌近期增长的担忧。《雅虎财经》的执行编辑Brian Sazi采访了Gap公司的首席执行官Richard Dix。请向我详细说明Old Navy究竟发生了什么。在谈到Old Navy之前，我认为认识到我们在几个关键指标上交出了一个进步的季度是很重要的。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

All right. Big story. We'll keep watching. Braz, thank you. Gap cutting its sales guidance after a disappointing performance from Old Navy in the first quarter that's causing fresh concerns about the brand's near-term growth. Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazi spoke to Gap, Inc. CEO Richard Dix. Take me inside what exactly happened in Old Navy. Look, before we get to Old Navy, I think it's important to recognize we delivered a progress quarter, and it was across several key metrics.

我的意思是，这已经是我们连续第九个季度的同店销售增长了。四个品牌中有三个在增长，其中包括Old Navy。同店销售增长了2%，这是在去年2%增长基础上取得的。我们的毛利率表现超出预期30个基点。我们在所有收入群体中都取得了胜利，也增加了市场份额。此外，我们通过分红和回购股票向股东返还了4.5亿美元的现金。所以，总的来说，我们确实取得了进步。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

I mean, this is our ninth consecutive quarter of positive comp sales. Three out of the four brands are growing, including Old Navy. Comps were up 2%, and that's building on 2% comp growth from last year. We overperformed on our gross margin outlook by 30 basis points. We also won across all income cohorts. We gained share. And we returned $450 million in cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. So, on whole, we really did make progress.

品牌层面的表现有所不同。在这个背景下，Old Navy 取得了1%的可比增长，接续去年3%的增长。这也是该品牌连续第六个季度实现正增长。综合来看，我们在几个关键类别中持续取得了成果，包括运动服、牛仔服、儿童和婴儿服装，这些类别相比去年都有所增长，并且在顾客中继续保持吸引力。此外，我们整体市场份额保持稳定，并在运动服、牛仔服以及儿童和婴儿服饰这些领域保持了领先地位。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Now, the performance at the brand level varied. And in that context, on Old Navy, we did deliver a 1% comp growth on top of last year's 3% growth. Now, that also marks the brand's sixth consecutive quarter of positive comps. So, when you look at it on whole, and we look at the key categories where we continue to deliver results, active, denim, kids and baby, all of those categories posted growth versus last year and continue to build relevance with customers. We also maintain share overall, top ranking, active, denim, and kids and baby.

现在，布莱恩，季节性类别的表现确实有些不如人意。尤其是连衣裙方面，我们没能把握好时尚和价值的平衡。最终，这导致我们在消费者需求不足的品类上投入过多，而且连衣裙市场也在下滑中。我们的团队已经迅速采取措施，通过更精准的定价和有力的宣传来处理这些商品。随着这些调整开始见效，我们也看到了趋势的改善。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Now, the seasonal categories, Brian, did get off to a weaker start. In particular, dresses, where we just did not have the right fashion and value equation. Ultimately, this was a degree of overinvesting in a category where the consumer just wasn't there. And it was a decline in the dress market. The team has moved quickly to better convert with sharper prices and strong messaging to move through that merchandise. And as the changes have begun to take hold, we have seen trends improve.

鉴于我们在第一季度的表现，加上充满挑战的季节和季节性产品，我们对全年的预期持保守态度，但我们会努力争取更好的结果。理查德，我并不是想暗示Old Navy会步入JCPenney或Kmart的后尘。我并没有这个意思。在服装类别中，当你提到时尚时，顾客需要什么？当他们走进商店时，这些需求是否得到了满足？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Given the performance we had in the first quarter, challenging season and seasonal products, we are taking a moderated view on the year, but we're driving for better results. Richard, I don't want to say you're implying Old Navy's going the way of JCPenney or Kmart. That's not what I'm implying here. Within the dress category, when you say fashion, what did that customer want? And when they came into that store, what did it match up with what those wants?

好的，那么我们的服装系列在特殊场合穿着方面取得了共鸣，比如复活节、婚礼等场合。这些场合的服装有更具体的用途。我们注意到，顾客在夏季囤货等关键时刻对连衣裙的接受度发生了变化。他们开始转向更为多功能的类别和款式，这些衣服可以全年穿。因此，在这个类别上，我们的投资超过了消费者的需求。同时，我们发现像牛仔布、羊毛、针织和运动装这些季节性不明显的类别取得了成功。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Okay. So where our dress assortment did resonate was in occasion dressing, okay, which has a more specific end use, Easter, weddings, and so forth. We're seeing a change in customer acceptance of dresses during key peak moments like summer stock up. Instead, they're shifting to more versatile categories and styles that ultimately can be worn year-round. And so we simply overinvested in the category in the context of where the consumer was. And we are seeing success in season list categories like denim, fleece, knits, and active.

我们在今年截至目前的女性业务中实现了6%的可比增长。因此，从我们的库存情况来看，这是上半年面临的挑战。随着进入下半年，我们在季节性热销品类中看到优势，我们相信会迅速复苏并继续增长。理查德，如果我理解正确的话，你预期Old Navy在今年中期后的表现会更好。当我在返校季或秋季晚些时候去Old Navy时，店里会有什么不同之处能吸引顾客并实现这一增长预期呢？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We delivered a 6% comp in women's year-to-date. So, again, this is a first-half season challenge in the context of our inventory. As we move to the second half, where we see strength in season list categories, we believe we're going to quickly recover and continue to grow. Richard, if I read the guidance right, you are looking for better days or better quarters at Old Navy as the year progresses. When I come to Old Navy during back to school or later in the fall, what will look different at the chain that might excite customers and help deliver on that guidance?

看，我认为当你审视我们的商品陈列、产品质量、价值主张以及我们在店内体验上的努力时，你会真正感受到我们的进步，在商品展示上更为精准有效，价格具有竞争力，宣传也很到位，最终展现了大家对Old Navy的期望：出色的价值和优秀的产品。尤其是在返校季来到我们的商店时，我们就是为家庭提供价值的品牌。你将会有很棒的体验，并且可以与我们的商品进行深入对话。进入下半年，我们充满信心。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Look, I think when you look at our merchandising, the quality of product, the value proposition, the way that we're driving in-store experiences, you really start to see the progress that we're making with sharper, more effective merchandising, strong price points, great messaging, and ultimately, you know, what people expect of Old Navy. Great value and great product. When you come to our stores, particularly in back to school, we are the family value proposition brand. You're going to have a great experience, and you're going to have great depth and dialogue with our merchandise. We feel very confident as we head into the back half.

所以，考虑到世界上发生的一切，油价高涨、食品杂货价格攀升等等，你没有看到消费者在这些变化下有所退缩吗？没有，我们观察到消费者行为的持续稳定和强劲表现。我是说，我们的平均售价（AUR）一直在增长。另外，我们的市场份额也在增加，这再次表明我们的产品受到了消费者的欢迎。正如我所说的，我们正在赢得所有收入群体的青睐。低收入群体、中等收入群体和高收入群体的顾客数量都有所增长。我认为这展示了我们产品组合的广度、相关性和韧性。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So, you haven't seen the consumer pull back at all at any of these changes, given everything going on in the world, gas prices, high prices at the grocery stores, you name it? No, you know, we're seeing consistency and strength in the consumer behavior. I mean, we have sustained AUR growth. We also have market share gains, which indicate, on whole, again, that our product is resonating. As I said, Brian, we're winning across all income cohorts. We've got growth across low, middle, and high-income customers. I think it's demonstrating the breadth and the relevance and the resilience of our portfolio.

所以，总的来说，我们看到消费者保持稳定，预计在今年剩余时间里不会有太大变化。我认为，Gap的两位数增长令很多人感到意外，并且是积极的惊喜。未来两个季度，Gap是否能保持10%的增长？首先，感谢您关注Gap。我们对Gap目前的势头感到非常满意。更重要的是，该品牌一直以来展示出的稳定性也让我们感到非常欣慰。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So, no, on whole, we see consumers steady, and we don't anticipate very much change as we continue throughout the year. I think this double-digit growth at Gap surprised a lot of folks in a positive way. Is Gap now a 10% grow over the next two quarters? Look, first off, thank you for calling out Gap. We feel so good about the momentum at Gap. And importantly, again, the consistency that the brand has demonstrated over time.

我的意思是，这是我们连续第10个季度取得的正增长，而且不仅仅是正增长。这是一个在第一季度突出表现的双位数增长，要知道去年同期只增长了5%。所以，我们看到了Gap的持续稳定性和动力。这种增长在女装业务中尤为明显。我们在男装方面也取得了进展，儿童和婴儿服装的趋势正在改善。整体来看，各个品类表现良好，尤其是牛仔服装。我认为这要归功于Gap团队。我们传达的信息始终清晰、一致，且与消费者产生共鸣。与Z世代的合作激发了巨大的热情，我们也保持着广泛的跨代吸引力。综上，我们对Gap目前的状况充满信心。作为一个标志性的美国品牌，我们看到了广阔的发展前景：优秀的产品、精彩的品牌故事、出色的执行，还有更多惊喜在路上。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

I mean, this is our 10th consecutive quarter of positive comps, and it's not just a positive comp. It's a double-digit standout comp in the first quarter, by the way, up against 5% last year. So, we're seeing the consistency and the continued momentum in Gap. We're seeing it across the women's business. We made progress in men's. We're improving the trends in kids and baby. Overall, the category performance remains healthy, especially in denim. And I think it's a tribute to the Gap team. I mean, we're delivering disciplined, clear, consistent messaging, which is resonating with our consumers. Collaborations are driving great excitement with Gen Z, and we're maintaining that broad, multi-generational appeal. So, look, we're very confident in where we are with Gap. It is on the forefront of the cultural conversation. As an iconic American brand, we see significant runway ahead. Great product, great storytelling, great execution, much more to come.

理查德，最后关于Athleta，为什么这个品牌需要这么久才能开始展现积极的增长？我注意到他们的销售额在下降，而且这正值一个主要竞争对手Lululemon出现重大失误之时。我相信你一直在关注那家连锁店的情况，出现了款式问题，也没有领导力。如果现在不能扭转局面，那什么时候可以呢？我们已经讨论过这个问题。2026年将是Athleta重建的一年，我们正在继续在Maggie Gaugher的领导下加强品牌的基础，她是在八月份才加入我们的。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Richard, lastly on Athleta, why is it taking so long for that brand to start showing positive gains? You know, I see the sales declines there, and it's coming at a time where, like, one of its major competitors, Lululemon, I mean, that's a freaking debacle over there. I'm sure you've been following everything that's been going on in that chain for a while. Missed styles, no leadership. Like, what, if it can't turn around now, when can it turn? Look, we've talked about this. I mean, 2026 is the rebuild year for Athleta, and we're continuing to strengthen the brand's foundation under Maggie Gaugher's leadership, who just joined us in August.

自从玛吉上任以来，她采取了几项重要措施，最终目的是加强品牌。首先，她大幅精简了产品种类，即使当前整体销售额面临挑战，这也让平均售价和利润率得到了改善。她还重新调整了人事，填补了公司的关键职位。现在看看我们的网站，我们在品牌的创意呈现上有了很大的提升。尽管规模不大，但新时尚产品得到了很好的反馈，这表明我们能够逐步获得市场关注。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Since Maggie started, she's taken several key actions, ultimately to strengthen the brand. First, she streamlined the assortment considerably, which is resulting in better AUR and margins, even with the challenging top line right now. She's also been repositioning talent, filling in key roles in the organization. If you look at our website right now, we're delivering a much better creative execution of the brand. We're also seeing some really good reads of new fashion, albeit small. It's indicating that we can sort of drive traction.

但我们确实看到第二季度的业绩与第一季度相似，后半段略有改善。整体来看，Brian，这个品牌在女性运动领域排名前五。它在行业中是一个重要品牌，也是我们投资组合中的重要一员，我们相信它具有长期发展的潜力。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But we do see similar Q2 results to Q1, with slight improvement in the back half. And overall, Brian, look, this is a top five ranked brand in the women's active space. It's an important brand in the industry, and it's an important brand in our portfolio that we believe in for long term.

理查德，很高兴见到你。祝你周末愉快，回头聊。好的，谢谢你，布赖恩。接下来，我们将谈论一个由2016年世界大赛MVP本·佐布里斯特创立的非营利组织，该组织旨在促进青少年体育中的心理健康。他将在《询问潮流》节目中与我对话。节目马上回来，马上回来，马上回来，马上回来。你好，欢迎收看《询问潮流》。本·佐布里斯特深谙在压力下表现出色的秘诀。这位两次世界大赛冠军在十多年的职业体育生涯中，一直应对着巨大的期望。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Richard, good to see you as always. Have a good weekend. Talk to you soon. All right. Thanks, Brian. Coming up, a non-profit organization to promote mental health in youth sports started by 2016 World Series MVP Ben Zobris. He joins me next on Asking for a Trend. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. We'll be right back. Hello and welcome to Asking for a Trend. Ben Zobris knows a thing or two about performing under pressure. The two-time World Series champion spent more than a decade navigating the expectations that come with professional sports.

现在他专注于帮助新一代运动员应对不同类型的压力，这些压力来自社交媒体、NIL（姓名、形象、肖像权）协议、体育博彩以及不断壮大的体育商业。现在和我在一起的是2016年世界大赛MVP本·佐布里斯特和雅虎财经。很高兴你能来节目。本，你的到来让节目增色不少。那么，也许我们就从这里开始吧。本，给我们介绍一下Champion Forward，它的使命、意义和目的是什么。本，你想要解决的问题是什么？嗯，是这样的，年轻运动员面临着巨大的心理和情感压力，甚至比我们年轻时承受的还要多。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Now he's focusing on helping the next generation of athletes handle a different kind of pressure, one driven by social media, NIL deals, sports betting, and the growing business of sports. Showing me now is 2016 World Series MVP Ben Zobris and Yahoo Finances. Ben Zobris, it's great to have you on the show. Ben, it is great to have you on the show. So maybe just start, Ben. Tell us a little bit about Champion Forward, the mission, the point and purpose. Ben, what's the problem you're trying to solve for? Well, yeah, I mean, young athletes deal with a lot of mental and emotional pressure, even more than we did when we were younger.

当我离开棒球界时，我意识到自己曾经面临许多挑战。我希望能找到一种健康的方式来帮助这些运动员解决这些问题。我们都想取得成功，想赢得冠军。但最终，如果你无法在保持健康和感到与生活的联系、觉察与平衡的情况下做到这一点，那么一切就显得有些过度了。这就是我在世界大赛夺冠时的一些感受。在经历那些事情并开始进行一些真正有质量的内省后，我意识到，我得以某种方式将这些经验传递给年轻一代。这就是我们创办Champion Forward的原因。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so when I got out of baseball, I realized that was some of the challenges I faced. And I wanted to try to address that in the healthiest way possible for these athletes. I mean, we want to succeed. You want to, you know, win championships. But at the end of the day, if you can't do that and feel healthy and really feel like you're connected and aware and balanced in your life, then it feels like it's a little too much. And so that was my experience a little bit with the World Series championships. After I got through all that and started doing some real quality internal work, I realized, man, I've got to deliver this to the younger generation in some way. So that's how we started Champion Forward.

嘿，我是本·普罗斯。我是汽车报道员，同时也是团队里唯一的芝加哥小熊队粉丝。不过，我得问问你关于那辆科迈罗的事。你是作为系列赛MVP赢得的那辆车，我们会用它来支持这个组织，对吧？其实，大家都在想，你赢得那辆车后是怎么处理的？事实上，那辆车在我车库里已经放了10年，我并不常用它。车上只开了大约8000英里，还是很新的。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Hey, Ben Pross here. I'm the auto reporter, but also the resident Cubs fan amongst the staff. All right. But I got to ask you about the Camaro. So how does that come into play here? You won that as the Series MVP. We're using that for this organization, right? Yeah. Well, it turns out, you know, everybody wonders, well, what did they do with that after you win it? Well, it turns out it's been in my garage for 10 years, and I don't use it very much. It's got about 8,000 miles on it, and it's pretty pristine.

于是我们就在想，为什么这个东西就放在我家车库里呢？我们应该好好利用它。于是我们把它搬出来，拍了一个小广告，主要是展示Champion Forward在为年轻人和青年运动员们做些什么，我们还用这辆车来宣传。也就是说，人们仅需捐赠5美元就可以帮助这个组织。我们只是想宣传我们正在做的事情，以及我们如何努力解决这些运动员、他们的家庭和团队面临的心理和情感问题。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so we were thinking about, man, why is this just sitting in my garage? We need to put it to good use. We pulled it out, created this little commercial, and basically we're highlighting what Champion Forward is doing for the youth, young athlete world, and we're using the car to do it. So, I mean, people can donate, really, with just $5 to help the organization. We're just trying to get the word out about what we're doing and how we're trying to address the mental and emotional issues for these, not just the athletes, but their families and teams.

本，这件事情独立进行和与球队或联盟合作相比有什么优势呢？我认为，显然球队和联盟现在都有很多事情要处理，有很多不同的利益相关者。因此，为了保持组织的纯粹性，我们在前进的过程中，不仅希望我们所做的事情能传达给运动员、家长和教练，他们是真正看到问题和挑战并想要直接解决的人。这就是我们的想法。就像是，我们如何传达这个信息。我就像是一个扩音器。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Ben, what's the advantage of kind of doing this thing independently versus, you know, partnering with the team or the league? Well, I think, you know, obviously they've got a lot of irons in the fire. Teams, leagues right now, there's a lot of different constituents. And so to really try to keep the purity of the organization as we move forward, we're trying to get this, you know, not only what we do into the athletes, the parents, and the coaches that really see the problem and the challenge and really want to address it head on. So that was our idea. It was like, how do we, let's just put this word out. You know, I'm kind of the megaphone.

然后，我们有执行董事和团队负责处理所有传递给我们的事务。作为一个组织，我们正努力在各自的社区中培养大使，让他们变得更有意识，进行情商训练，提高觉察力，达到更平衡和真正的全面连接。因为我们知道，运动员、他们的家庭和社区之间的真正联系正是心理和情感健康的关键所在。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And then we've got, you know, our executive director and team that are handling all the stuff coming into us. And we as an organization are trying to create ambassadors that are going into their own communities and becoming more aware, doing emotional intelligence work, awareness, becoming more balanced and really fully connected. Because we know that really that connection between the athletes, their families, their community, that's the silver bullet to mental and emotional health.

所以，本，你知道，你在很多压力下比赛，曾经历过世界大赛这样的巅峰时刻，比如打破诅咒，对吧？那时候压力很大。你觉得现在这些被认为是精英运动员的孩子，他们是不是在面对不同类型的压力？这种压力和你经历的是否一样？有什么不同？你认为他们应该如何应对这些压力呢？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So, Ben, you know, you played under a lot of pressure, the highest of the highs with the World Series, things like that, breaking a curse, right? You know, a lot of pressure there. Do you think kids these days who are sort of elite athletes, are they doing it with a different kind of pressure? Is it the same? Is it different? How do you think you navigate that?

是的，情况有些不同。这是不同的一代，对吧？对于上一代的教练来说，想要找到与这些年轻运动员沟通的方法是很困难的。不过，这些年轻运动员首先最想要的就是归属感。刚开始的时候，他们对获胜的渴望不如后来那么强烈。他们真正想要的是在团队中找到归属感。所以无论是赢还是输，当你在团队中营造出一种归属感的文化时，这才是运动员们最想要的东西。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yeah, it is a little different. It's a different generation, right? And it's difficult for the coaches of the previous generations to figure out how to connect with these younger athletes. But really, they really want to belong first and foremost. It's not as much about winning at the beginning as it becomes as they move on. But they really want to belong in a group of people. So when you create that culture of belonging inside of a team, whether you're winning or losing, that's really what athletes want first and foremost.

他们真的希望教练不仅仅是告诉他们该做什么，而是能够与他们并肩同行。为了做到这一点，教练、家长和在场的成年人必须在他们参与运动的过程中展示自己的心理和情绪健康。所以，这其实挺难的。说实话，对吧？我们都在关注体育，你在看自己的孩子，也在尝试指导他们。有时候我们会变得情绪化，有时可能会做得过火。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But they really want coaches to not just tell them what to do, but to walk alongside them. And in order to do that, the coaches, the parents, the adults in the room have to be modeling their own mental and emotional wellness as they're doing the sports experience. So, you know, that's difficult. Let's be honest, right? We're all watching sports. You're watching your kids. You're trying to coach your kids. And we get emotional. And we sometimes take it too far.

为了真正进行这种建模和做好相关工作，首先我们必须亲自去尝试。这样我们才能够陪伴这些年轻运动员，他们在社交媒体上面临着更多的比较。挑战在于，他们作为运动员比我们20年前更优秀。他们从小就能接触到更多的资源来进行训练，成为出色的运动员，对吗？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so in order to really model that and do that proper work, we've got to do it ourselves first and foremost. And then we're able to walk alongside these younger athletes as they're dealing with a lot more comparison on social media. And the challenge is they're a better athlete than we were 20 years ago. They've got more at their fingertips to train at a younger age just to become great athletes, right?

因此，这也带来了更大的压力和期望，他们认为自己应该达到那个水平。然而，这需要时间来发展。所以我们需要给予他们足够的耐心，并通过成年人的情商引导，真正帮助他们走好自己的路。关于压力的问题，本，我觉得很有意思的是，NIL规则（名字、形象及肖像权益）改变了一切。现在有了这些年轻的运动员。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So but with that comes a lot more pressure and expectation that they think that they should get there. And it takes a while to develop. So we've got to give them that patience and those emotional intelligence cues as adults to really help them walk their journey. On that issue of pressure, Ben, I mean, it is interesting how, I mean, NIL has changed everything. And now you have these young athletes.

他们在管理资金，可能金额相当大。还有品牌推广、代言、营销这些方面。Ben，你是否担心，现在这种压力越来越快地降临到年轻运动员身上？我非常担心，而且我认为我们都应该担心，因为如果你看看心理健康的统计数据，不仅仅是运动员，还有所有年轻人。我觉得，当你把金钱和财务因素加入进去，再加上被招募和换队的压力，比如这些大学运动员，有时在进入职业领域之前，他们要去四到五所不同的学校。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

They are, hey, they're managing money, potentially significant amount. And just the branding, the endorsements, the marketing. How concerned are you, Ben, if at all, about how much more quickly that pressure is now arriving on young athletes? Well, I'm real concerned, and I think we all should be, because if you look at the mental health statistics of not just the athletes but all young people, I mean, I think when you add money and finances into the equation and the pressure to get recruited and move teams, like these college athletes, sometimes they're going to four and five different schools before they even get into the professional realm.

看，他们的大脑还没有完全发育，特别是男性运动员，对吧？据说大脑要到25岁才完全发育。这些都是艰难的决定，是每年都会改变人生的决定。他们每年都被招募，加上金钱的影响，被拉扯到无数不同的方向。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And look, their brains aren't fully developed, especially the male athletes, right? They say 25 right before your brain is fully developed. So these are tough decisions. They're life-altering decisions every year, and they're being recruited every year and being pulled in a thousand different directions when you add the money into it.

所以，这需要一个情商高的家庭。这需要情商高的教练成为这些年轻运动员的主要和次要依附人物，帮助他们在晋升过程中保持平衡、意识到自我并保持健康。因为他们可能需要转学，或者需要把握下一个机会，但并不是所有情况下都必须这样做，因为星探会主动找上门。而且如果你足够优秀，最终你不只想成为进入下一级别的运动员，还希望保持健康并拥有持久的运动生涯。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So it takes an emotionally intelligent family. It takes emotionally intelligent coaches to be the primary and secondary attachment figures for these young athletes, to help them remain balanced and aware and healthy as they're moving through the ranks. Because they might need to move schools, or they might need to take that next opportunity, but they don't always have to, because the scouts find you, and if you're good enough, eventually you want to be that, not only the athlete that makes it to the next level, but you want to be healthy, and you want the longevity.

为了维持这一点，你必须具备勇气、一贯性和韧性，还要在心理和情感上都坚韧不拔，才能真正长期坚持下去。你知道吗，Ben，从财务角度来看，另一面是赌博。体育博彩无处不在。每当我观看比赛时，都会被各种广告淹没。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And to sustain that, you've got to be courageous, consistent, and resilient, and mentally and emotionally resilient to really sustain over the long haul. You know, Ben, on the flip side of that financial stuff is betting. Sports betting is everywhere. I'm inundated with ads whenever I watch any kind of game.

你认为这对这些年轻球员产生了什么影响呢？他们是否感到参赛的压力？这种情况又如何影响他们作为运动员的发展以及在赌博世界之外保持独立？坦率地说，这确实是一个很大的干扰。不仅在他们独处时如此。当他们暂时离开运动、学业挑战或其他他们参与的竞技领域时，他们需要休息。他们需要了解自己作为一个人的身份，给予足够的休息时间，亲近自然，走到户外，与他们关心的人一起做其他事情，以保持心理和情感的健康。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

How do you think it's affecting the young players here? Do they feel pressure to play in these games? And then how does it affect their ability to be athletes and be separated from the whole world of betting? Well, I'll be honest, it's a big distraction. It's not only a distraction for their alone time. When they get away from their sport or away from the challenges of academics and some of the other performance realms they're in, they need to be resting. They need to be figuring out who they are as human beings and taking a proper rest time, getting in nature, getting outside, doing other things with the people that they're connected to in order to be really mentally and emotionally healthy.

当你盯着屏幕观看另一场比赛，并通过体育博彩在这些时刻增加肾上腺素时，这对年轻运动员来说可能非常不健康。我担心他们在独处时会参与这些活动。但我也担心这可能会让他们感受到更大的压力，尤其是当有资金和赌注参与时，会听到粉丝们说些话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

When you're looking at a screen and you're looking at another competition and you're adding adrenaline into those moments through sports betting, it can be very unhealthy for young athletes. So I'm concerned with them and their alone time doing that type of thing. But I'm also concerned with how it might make them feel even more pressure because you hear fans say things, especially when there's money added in and there's betting added in.

粉丝有时对运动员表现不如预期时会非常激动和不满，对吧？这也可能对这些年轻运动员的心理和情感健康造成影响。所以我认为我们需要非常谨慎地处理这些事情。如果你是主要或次要的照顾者，你需要帮助他们。我建议要屏蔽或忽略那些负面的东西，同时强调他们生活中需要做的积极的事情。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Fans get really heated and upset sometimes at these athletes when they're not performing the way that they expect them to, right? And that can do a number on the mental and emotional wellness of these young athletes too. So I think we've got to be really careful to allow that around them. And if you're the primary or secondary caretakers, you've got to help them. I talk about blocking out or silencing some of that stuff and amplifying the healthy stuff that they need to be doing in their life.

本，我想问你一下，关于美国职业棒球大联盟引入机器人裁判这件事，对吧？自动球类判决系统（ABS）。我只是好奇你对此有什么看法。本，你有没有觉得这是一项积极的举措，是好事？还是你觉得这移除了一个重要的人为因素？坦率地说，裁判一直以来都是比赛中非常不可预测的人为因素。这其实是比赛的一部分乐趣。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Ben, I've got to ask you, the MLB implementing those robot umpires, Ben, right? ABS. I'm just curious to get your thoughts on that, Ben. Did you say, hey, yeah, that's a positive step. That's a good thing. Or no, did you think it's removing some important human element? Well, let's be honest. The umpires have always been the human element in the game that is really unpredictable. It's really kind of a fun part of the game that you see.

有时候，在激烈的比赛中会发生一些争执，而这对粉丝来说有时候真的很有趣。但我非常支持这种界定好好球区的方法，因为我以前是个打击手，我知道当你被判定为好球，而自己明明觉得那个球是坏球时的那种困惑。尽管如此，我仍然认为在需要的时候，始终需要有人在那里做出主观判断。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Sometimes there's arguments that happen in the heat of the moment, and that's sometimes really fun for fans. But I am a big fan of the strike zone being that way because I was a hitter, and I know it's difficult sometimes when you get calls that feel like, man, I knew that that was a ball and he called it a strike. That being said, there's still always, I believe, going to be a need for that guy back there to make subjective opinions at the moment that it needs to be made.

我认为这是一个可以继续留在比赛中的元素。虽然它有时会减少比赛中的争论，但确实加快了比赛节奏。众所周知，在棒球比赛中，吸引观众注意力是非常重要的。因此，我认为他们在努力加快比赛进程，而且这在某种程度上起到了作用。但由于比赛的竞争性质，我们并不想完全失去与裁判争论的机会。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so I think it's an element that can still be a part of the game. It's taking a little bit of the argumentation away from the game sometimes, but it speeds the game up. And as we know, attention is a really important commodity right now in the game of baseball. So I think they're trying to speed the game up, and it's helping in regard to that. But we never really want to lose being able to argue with that guy a little bit because of the competitive nature.

这让事情变得有趣。是啊，你要骂或者踢土的机器人在哪里呢，对吧？我唯一一次被赶出比赛是因为我提到想要机器人裁判。不过说实话，在这个问题上我不会和你争论太多。对了，最后一个问题，Ben。新劳资协议可能会在今年年底到期。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

That makes it fun. Yeah, where's the robot you're going to yell at or kick dirt on, right? The one time I got kicked out of a game was because I said something about wanting robot umpires. But listen, you're not going to get too much argumentation from me on that. Yeah, you know, one last one here, Ben. I'll be happy. So the CBA, the new bargaining agreement, is going to probably expire at the end of this year.

你对这件事情怎么看？我们听说了一些关于工资帽和地方球队收入分享的问题。在这个过程中，球员们需要怎么做才能得到他们想要的呢？你知道，我没有参与这些谈判。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

What are your thoughts on that? We're hearing stuff about salary caps and the sharing of local team revenue. What did the players need to do to get what they need in this whole process? You know, I'm not involved in all those talks.

我不知道所有当前的问题，但我知道这个比赛需要不断地调整和变化，才能继续发展。我认为这需要球员和所有者一起合作，达成一致，以便推动比赛的进一步发展。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

I don't know every issue that's on the table. I do know that this game, it's going to continue to have to morph and change to continue growing. And I think it's going to take both the players and the owners to really be coming together and be unified on how they're going to continue to grow the game and move it beyond where it's at.

他们正在做一些小改动，比如修改规则来加快比赛速度，让比赛更有趣。但我认为，你应该关注一下萨凡纳香蕉队正在做的事情，以及棒球在娱乐方面的趋势。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And, you know, they're making small changes like some of the rule changes and things to speed the game up and make it a little bit more fun. But I think you have to pay attention to some of the things that are happening with the Savannah Bananas and the entertainment realm of baseball as it's moving in that direction.

我认为，这是我的看法，我觉得棒球的最高殿堂——美国职业棒球大联盟，需要在比赛中多加入一些这样的元素，对吧？我觉得如果大家能坐下来，一起想出解决办法，可能会更快达成一致。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And I think, this has been my opinion, I think the highest realm of baseball, Major League Baseball, is going to have to start adding a little bit more of that element into the game itself, right? And I can see that being something that if they can come together and figure that out, that maybe they'll come to an agreement a little bit faster.

但是当你和球员谈论工资上限时，大多数球员都会说，别提这个。所以这将是一个很大的难题。他们可能很难克服这点。我真心希望他们能解决这个问题，因为我们不想错过任何棒球比赛。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

But you talk about caps with players, and most players are like, don't even talk about that. So that's going to be a really sticking point. It might be difficult for them to get past that. And I sure hope they can because we don't want to miss any baseball.

本，今天很高兴能请到你来参加节目。谢谢你抽出时间，非常感激。好的，谢谢大家。接下来，我们将讨论在美国引起热议的海滩帐篷，为什么它们在一些地方被禁止使用。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Ben, so great to have you on the show today. Thanks for your time. Appreciate it. All right. Thanks, guys. Coming up, viral beach tents dividing America. Why they are being banned in some places.

接下来在“趋势访谈”节目中，我将与联合创始人对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我将在《趋势访谈》节目中与联合创始人对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我将在《趋势求解》节目中和这位联合创始人对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我将在《Trend之问》节目中与联合创始人交谈。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我将在《趋势访谈》节目中与联合创始人对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

即将采访“趋势问答”节目的联合创始人。在“趋势问答”节目中，我接下来要与这位联合创始人进行对话。在“趋势问答”节目中，我接下来要与这位联合创始人进行对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend.

接下来，我将在《趋势有约》节目中采访这家公司的联合创始人。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我将在《问潮》中与联合创始人对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，在《趋势访谈》节目中，我将与联合创始人进行对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《趋势访谈》节目中，我将采访这位联合创始人。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我会在“趋势请教”节目中与这位联合创始人对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来，我将在节目“趋势访谈”中与联合创始人对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《趋势访谈》中，我将与联合创始人对话。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

接下来在《寻找趋势》的节目中，我将采访这位联合创始人。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend. I'm talking to the co-founder next on Asking for a Trend.

大多数产品都梦想着能够流行起来，但Shibumi可能变得过于流行了。起初，它只是作为传统海滩遮阳伞的一种简单替代品，但现在已经变成了一种海岸现象，销售量超过五十万个Shibumi遮阳篷。然而，随着品牌的壮大，反对声也随之而来，一些海滩城市因担心拥挤和安全问题，正在考虑禁止或限制使用这种遮阳篷。现在和我在一起的是Shibumi的创始人之一，Dane Barnes。Dane，很高兴见到你。我们来谈谈这件事吧，Dane，因为你基本上创造了一种新的海滩产品类别。是什么时候你意识到，这不仅仅是卡罗来纳州的小众产品，而是变得更大了？你知道，我们在2016年开始制作这个产品，原本只是想让自己的海滩体验更好。后来，人们开始注意到它，在最初的五年左右，我们的产品每年都售罄。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Most products dream of becoming popular, but Shibumi may have become too popular. What started as a simple alternative to the traditional beach umbrella has turned into a coastal phenomenon with more than half a million Shibumi shades sold. But as the brand has grown, so has the backlash with some beach towns moving to ban or restrict it over concerns about crowning and safety. Joining me now is one of the founders of Shibumi, Dane Barnes. Dane, it is good to see you. So let's talk about this, Dane, because you basically created here a kind of a new beach product category. When did you know, Dane, you know what, this is becoming something bigger than just a niche product for the Carolinas? You know, we started in 2016 just creating something for ourselves to make our beach experience better. Then people started to notice it and we just sold out every year for the first five or so years.

我们从没想到它们会如此受欢迎，很多人已经开始用Shibumi遮阳篷来代替传统的雨伞或尾门帐篷，因为它既简单又安全。Dane，你是怎么想到这个点子的？当时有没有灵光一现的时刻？我记得我小时候去海滩时，只有雨伞和尾门帐篷可用。这些东西有很多缺点：价格不便宜、容易坏、容易被吹走、遮阳效果不佳、重量也大等等。2015年，我父母在海边买了一栋度假屋，我们知道将来会更频繁地去海滩。所以我们想改善自己的海滩体验。受到晾衣绳上的床单、风筝以及那些被风吹走的雨伞的启发，我们知道海滩上总是有风，于是就有了这个创意。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And we never dreamed of how popular they would become that, you know, people are just replacing their umbrellas or tailgate tents for the Shibumi shade because it's so much easier and safer as well. How did you come up with the idea, Dane? Was there was there a particular moment a light bulb went off? You know, we I guess in those days when I was growing up going to the beach, there were only umbrellas and tailgate tents. Those are lousy for a lot of reasons. They're not affordable. They break. They blow away. They don't provide a lot of shade. They're heavy. Things like that. My parents bought a beach house back in 2015. We knew we would be going more frequently. So we wanted just to try to improve our beach experience being inspired by things like a bedsheet on a clothesline, kites, you know, seeing umbrellas tumbling away. We knew there was always wind at the beach.

所以我们想知道，能否创造一种由海风支撑的遮阳篷。Dane，你已经有抄袭者了。那么，我好奇，现在展望未来，你是怎么想的？比如说，我必须保护这个产品和品牌吗？你打算怎么做呢？是的，我们在知识产权上投入了大量资金，且对此十分重视。因此，我们确实以这种方式来维护我们的知识产权。到目前为止，我们已经成功地做到了这一点。Dane，这个产品的价格是多少？你的客户是谁？有没有一个平均的客户群体？嗯，Shibumi Shade有两种型号。大多数人使用的是较大尺寸的Shibumi Shade Classic，也是你在那些无人机视频中看到的，这款售价为295美元。此外，我们现在还销售一种非常受欢迎的海滩椅，以及一种海滩以外使用的遮阳篷。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So we wondered if we could create a shade that was held up by the ocean breeze. You already do have copycats, Dane. So I'm curious, as you look ahead now, you know, how do you think about, hey, I got to defend this product, defend this brand? How are you going to do it? Yeah, we have invested really heavily in our intellectual property and we take it very seriously. So, you know, we do enforce our, excuse me, our IP that way. And so far we have been able to do just that. How much does the product cost, Dane? And who is your customer? Is there an average demo? Mm-hmm. So the Shibumi Shade, we have two different models. The larger size, which is what most people have, and what you see in those drone videos is the Shibumi Shade Classic. That is $295 on our website. And then we also sell now a beach chair that has become extremely popular and then a shade away from the beach also.

丹恩，你也知道我们对消费者有很多担忧。我只是有些好奇。听着，你对此有很好的洞察力。根据你的业务，消费者的状况如何？我想知道，他们有多健康，多有韧性？你观察到什么？我们业务的持续增长不仅仅是在卡罗来纳州，还有佛罗里达州、德克萨斯州，以及整个东海岸。因此，我认为对于Shibumi Shade这个产品，大家普遍认同它比沙滩伞和露营帐篷要好得多。就像你在视频中看到的，越来越多的人选择它。我们发现很多人表示这是他们用钱买过的最值得的东西，我们经常听到这样的反馈。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Plenty of concern about the consumer, Dane, as you know. And I'm just curious. Listen, you have, you know, good line of sight there. Based on your business, how does the consumer look, Dane? You know, I mean, how healthy, how resilient? What are you seeing? You know, we're seeing our business continue to boom, not only in the Carolinas, but Florida, Texas, up and down the East Coast. So I think for Shibumi Shade specifically, people recognize that it is just simply a better product than beach umbrellas and tailgate tents. And like you can see in the footage here, people are just choosing it, you know, to a huge degree. So we find that people say that it's the best money they've ever spent on anything. We hear that all the time.

因此，我们的消费者似乎非常具有韧性。我认为我们最大的消费者是家庭，也就是那种多代同堂的家庭，他们会去海滩，并希望能够在外面待上一整天，真正保护自己不被阳光晒伤。我注意到，Dane，你们的产品变得非常受欢迎，一些城市甚至已经禁止或限制使用，对吧？我只是好奇，你们是如何应对这种情况的？或者说，这种争议是否实际上提高了知名度并促进了销售呢？

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

So our consumer seems to be really resilient. And I think our biggest consumer is families, you know, multi-generational families who are going to the beach and want to be able to stay out there all day and really protect themselves from the sun. I was seeing, Dane, your products become so popular. Some towns have banned it or restricted it, right? I'm just curious, how are you navigating that? Or does the controversy, Dane, I don't know, does it actually raise awareness and fuel sales?

好的，有两点要说。我觉得其实没有太多争议。你知道，当我去海滩时，可以看到在每个海滩上，我们的市场份额有50%、60%、70%、80%甚至更多。所以绝大多数看到Shibumi遮阳棚的人都选择它，而且选择它的人数还在不断增加。关于海滩禁令，我觉得那其实不是真的。在美国，几乎每个海滩都允许使用Shibumi遮阳棚。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Yeah, two things there. I would say that there's actually not really much controversy. You know, it seems like from when I go to the beach, we have on any given beach 50, 60, 70, 80% or more market share. So the vast majority of people who have seen a Shibumi shade are choosing it and more people are choosing it all the time. I think going to beach bands, I think that's actually not true. Nearly every beach in the United States allows the Shibumi shade.

只有少数几个海滩没有选择，因为它们有只允许使用遮阳伞的规定。如果不是每个海滩都这样，那么我应该说那些规定是在Shibumi遮阳篷发明之前制定的。那些规定主要是为了禁止10x10的帐篷使用。然而，后来Shibumi遮阳篷被发明出来，彻底改变了人们去海滩的体验，并迅速流行起来。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

There's only a handful of beaches that don't because they have umbrellas only rules. And if not in every case, then or well, I should say those rules were created before the Shibumi shade was even invented. So those rules were meant to ban the 10 by 10 tailgate tents. Then later, the Shibumi shade was invented and has just taken over, you know, going to the beach and totally changed the landscape.

因此，那些针对少数小镇的规定还未能跟上时代的发展。但我们希望他们能够区分尾门帐篷和 Shibumi 遮阳篷，因为全美的公共安全官员都表示，他们认为 Shibumi 遮阳篷能够提高海滩的安全性，并且也向我表明了这一点。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And so those rules for those small handful of towns just have not caught up with the times yet. But we're hopeful that that they will make a distinction between tailgate tents and the Shibumi shade, which public safety officials across the U.S. have said, you know, they think and they tell me makes their beaches safer.

丹，最后我想问一下，你接下来打算如何扩大规模？你的计划和策略是什么，如何推广呢？什么方法最有效？对我们来说，最好的销售方式就是让人们在家庭度假时看到海滩上的Shibumi遮阳伞。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Dane, just just ending here, I'm just curious, how do you scale from here, Dane? You know, what's the game plan, the strategy and how do you get the word out? What's most effective? So definitely the best sales engine for us is just people seeing Shibumi shades on the beach when they go on their family vacation.

Shibumi，我们也对扩大业务感到兴奋，正如你在这里看到的 Shibumi 公园景观。这是我们在沙滩以外的地方，比如公园和草地环境中，如边线、后院、公园等区域，设计制造的首款遮阳产品。我们对沙滩产品的增长很兴奋，但同时也对沙滩以外的产品感到期待。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Shibumi, we're also excited about, you know, expanding away from the beach like you see here with the Shibumi Park Vista. This is our first product for creating shade away from the beach in parks and kind of grassy environments like sidelines, backyards, parks, things like that. We're excited about the growth in the beach category, but also away from the beach as well.

Dane，很高兴你今天参加我们的节目，感谢你抽出时间。Dane，非常感谢。接下来，我们会关注新一个月的交易和五月的就业报告，下周市场需关注哪些动态。这将在Ask for a Tread节目中为您呈现。谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Dane, great to have you on the show today. Thanks for your time. Dane, thanks so much. Coming up, a new month of trading and the May jobs report, what to watch in markets next week. That's next on Ask for a Tread. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

最后，Lululemon 将在周四公布业绩。我预计这家休闲运动服装公司的收入将有小幅增长。投资者将关注创新是否有助于重振其在北美的势头，以及在今年晚些时候 CEO 更替前，公司策略的任何线索。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

And finally, Lululemon reporting results on Thursday. And I was expecting modest revenue growth from the athleisure company. Investors will be looking for signs that innovation is helping revive momentum in North America. And any clues on the company's strategy ahead of a CEO transition later this year.

今天的节目就到这里。感谢观看。我们下期再见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

That's a wrap on today's show. That's a wrap on today's show. Thanks for watching. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one.

我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one. We'll see you in the next one.

我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

再见，我们下次见。再见，我们下次见。再见，我们下次见。再见，我们下次见。再见，我们下次见。再见，我们下次见。再见，我们下次见。再见，我们下次见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

当然可以！以下是文本分成段落的格式：

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

Certainly! Here's the text divided into paragraphs:

当然，请提供您想要翻译成中文的文本内容，我会帮助您进行翻译。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

==========

我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。我们下次再见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。我们下次见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱

我们下期见。

▶ 英文原文 ⏱