Markets Weekly May 23, 2026
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Episode 设置
摘要
#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
02:00 - Fed turning Hawkish
07:39 - SpaceX IPO
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
GPT-4正在为你翻译摘要中......
中英文字稿 
你好，朋友们。今天是5月23日，这里是《市场周报》。目前我们录制的时候，还没有发生什么事情，但情况非常不稳定，随时可能会有地缘政治局势的变化，这些变化不仅会影响下周的市场，可能对今年全年都有影响。最近有非常明显的迹象显示，我们可能会很快重新对伊朗进行打击。这个周末是美国的三天长假，总统喜欢在市场关闭时采取行动。上周，图尔西·加巴德，一位非常高级的政府官员，也反对对伊朗的战争，已离开政府。当然，我们也看到总统特朗普很公开地告诉大家，他这个周末不能参加儿子的婚礼，因为必须留在华盛顿。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is May 23rd, and this is Markets Weekly. So, okay, so as we record, nothing is happening yet, but the situation is very fluid, and at any moment, we could have changes in the geopolitical situation that define markets not just for next week, but maybe for the rest of the year. Now, there have been very big hints dropped that we could have a resumption of strikes against Iran, probably imminently. So this is a three-day weekend in the U.S., and the president likes to do things when markets are closed. Last week, we had Tulsi Gabbard, a very senior administration official who also opposes the Iran war, leave the administration. And of course, we have President Trump very publicly telling you that, yeah, he can't attend his son's wedding this weekend because he has to stay in Washington.
在一次采访中，他表示要处理与伊朗有关的事务，并且他一直在威胁重新对伊朗发动打击。目前，谈判似乎陷入僵局，伊朗希望达成一个分两步走的协议，首先开放霍尔木兹海峡，然后再讨论核问题，但白宫希望同时解决所有问题。如果这一问题不能解决，我们可能会看到一些紧张局势的升温，而这可能对全球经济和金融市场产生非常大的影响。此外，我还注意到我们有一个航母打击群正在向加勒比海移动，总统还谈到了采取一些针对古巴的行动。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
In an interview, he said he has to deal with Iran stuff, and of course, he's been threatening to resume strikes on Iran for some time. At the moment, it seems like there's an impasse in the negotiations where Iran wants a two-part deal, first open a Strait of Hormuz, then talk about nuclear, but the White House wants everything to be done at the same time. And so if that's not resolved, we could see some fireworks there, and that could be, I think, very, very impactful on the global economy and on the financial markets. In addition, I'll also note that we have a carrier strike group moving into the Caribbean. President has talked about taking Cuba.
古巴目前处于非常弱的状态，所以他可能有机会掌控古巴，这种情况也是有可能发生的。上周，我们还看到新的不明飞行物文件被公布。因此，有很多事情可以转移公众的注意力，所以在这段录音发布时，可能会有重大事件发生。
好吧，今天我们再讨论两个议题。首先，我们必须谈论美联储正变得越来越鹰派，以及市场目前已经完全预计今年会有一次加息。其次，我们来讨论即将到来的SpaceX首次公开募股（IPO），这将是史上最大规模的IPO，这当然会增加股票证券的供应。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Cuba is very weak right now, so he will be able to take Cuba, and that could happen this way as well. We also had the release of new UFO files last week. So again, there's a lot to distract the public, and so something big could be happening by the time this recording is released. All right, so today, again, let's talk about two things. First off, we have to talk about how the Fed is increasingly turning hawkish and how the market is now pricing in fully one-rate hike this year. And secondly, let's talk about the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which will be the largest IPO in history, which, of course, increases the supply of equity securities.
好的，先来说美联储。本周，凯文宣誓就任美联储主席。当然，我们来简单看看总统在宣誓仪式上说的话。老实说，我真的这么认为。这不是以其他任何方式说的。我希望凯文能够完全独立。我希望他独立工作，并做好工作。不要看我，不要看任何人。只做自己的事情，把工作做好，好吗？总统非常明确地用正确的话语告诉大家，我们将会有一个独立的凯文。你相信吗？当然，没有人相信，但这并不重要。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, starting with the Fed. So this week, we had Kevin sworn in as Fed chair. And of course, let's take a brief look at what the president said during the swearing-in ceremony. Honestly, I really mean this. This is not said in any other way. I want Kevin to be totally independent. I want him to be independent and just do a great job. Don't look at me. Don't look at anybody. Just do your own thing and do a great job, okay? So the president is telling you very clearly all the right words. We're going to have an independent Kevin. Do you believe that? Of course, no one believes that, but it doesn't really matter.
目前，这并不重要，因为委员会在对待通货膨胀的态度上正在发生重大转变。上周，美联储公布了会议记录。从中我们可以看到，大多数委员实际上支持在通胀持续高企的情况下加息。当然，委员会中也有很多人支持改变声明中的措辞，使其传达出更中立的立场。而当前的措辞暗示下一步可能是降息，这引发了三人的反对。许多人实际上希望更改声明中的措辞，使其更为中立，表明美联储的下一步行动可能是加息，也可能是降息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It doesn't matter because at the moment, the committee is really taking a big turn in how it's looking at inflation. So last week, we had the publication of the Fed minutes. And from the Fed minutes, we can see that a majority actually supports rate hikes in the event that inflation continues to be elevated. Now, also, of course, a lot of the people at the committee also supported changing the language of the statement such that to imply that a more neutral stance, whereas the current language implies that the next move would be a cut and that garnered three descents. Many people actually would like to change the language in the statement to be more neutral, suggesting that the next Fed move could be a hike or a cut.
现在，目前，我们从克利夫兰联邦储备银行获得了最新的通胀预测，似乎通胀率，无论是消费者价格指数（CPI）还是个人消费支出（PC），都会超过4%。所以，再次说明，通胀在上升。它将超过4%，这显然高得太多，是2%的目标的两倍。如果我们的行动继续保持不变，我们很可能会看到通胀进一步上升。油价持续上涨，这将影响运输成本，而运输成本会被加到食品价格中等等。因此，除非情况有所改变，否则在未来几个月，你甚至可能看到5%的CPI。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, at the moment, we have our latest inflation forecast from the Cleveland Fed, and it's looking like inflation, either CPI or PC, is going to be above 4%. So again, inflation is ticking upwards. It will be above 4%. So that's obviously much too high, twice as high as the 2% target. And should the sort of our moves remain closed, we can easily see inflation continue to move higher. Gas prices continue to move higher, and that bleed into things like transportation costs that, of course, get added into food prices and so forth. So you could even see, let's say, a 5% CPI in the coming months unless things change.
这当然是一个非常糟糕的情况。现在来看一下通胀预期，我们可以看到公众也在提高他们的通胀预期。在一年期的范围内，根据密歇根大学的数据，通胀预期有了显著的变化。同时，在更长期的通胀预期方面也有一些变化。然而，如果你看看未来五年的通胀，市场就显得放松得多。所谓五年期通胀，即五年后的通胀，是央行用来衡量较长期通胀预期的一个常见指标。目前这个指标显示情况仍然良好，没有什么可担心的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that is, of course, a very, very bad situation to be in. Now, looking at inflation expectations, you can see that the public is also revising their inflation expectations higher. Now, on the one-year horizon, you see a very notable move according to the University of Michigan, but you also see some movement in longer-dated inflation expectations as well. However, though, the market is much more relaxed if you look at 5-year inflation, that is, 5-year inflation, 5 years into the future, which is a common measure of longer-dated inflation expectations that central banks look at. It's still very benign, nothing to worry about.
目前看来，至少在眼下，许多市场参与者仍然认为这种情况是暂时的。然而，一切都取决于中东局势的发展。如果局势变化，那么通胀预期和美联储政策方向肯定会发生重大变化。上周，美联储理事沃勒也发表了讲话。他被认为是联邦公开市场委员会中更有影响力和核心的人物之一。他在正确判断以往经济周期方面有很好的记录，并且支持将声明的措辞调整得更加中立。他并不是特别鹰派，我认为如果通胀预期失去锚定，他可能会支持加息。不过，根据他的讲话，他更倾向于将利率维持在当前水平较长一段时间。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It seems, at least at the moment, many market participants still view this to be transitory. However, again, this all comes down to what happens in the Middle East. That could change. And if that were to change, then you would definitely have a big change in inflation expectations and, of course, the path of Fed policy. Now, last week, we also had Governor Waller speak. And Governor Waller is perceived to be one one of the more influential and central figures on the FOMC. He has a very good track record of being rightly calling the prior economic cycle. And he also supports moving the statement language to be more neutral. But he's not super hawkish. I think he's open to having rake hikes should inflation expectations become unanchored. But it seems, based on his speech, he's more about kind of keeping rates where they are for a longer-term period of time.
进入伊朗战争时，市场预期利率会下调。但我认为现在委员会基本上处于观望状态，所以不再降息。市场预计年底前会加息，这就是为什么整个收益率曲线的利率都在上升。这主要是一个受地缘政治驱动的事件。所以，如果中东局势发生重大变化，比如霍尔木兹海峡的局势解决，那么一切都会迅速改变。我认为我们可能会重新进入降息周期。但这超出了我们的控制范围。目前，美联储显然正在从宽松政策转向更加鹰派的立场。这对金融资产来说当然不是好消息。30年期国债收益率最近创下了几十年来的新高，这可能会成为一种趋势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So going into the Iran war, the market was pricing in rate cuts. Now I think the committee is mostly in a wait-and-see mode, so no more rate cuts. And the market is pricing in a rate hike by the end of the year. And that goes a long way to explaining why rates across the curve have been moving higher. Again, this is largely a geopolitical-driven event. So if we have some big movement on what happens in the Middle East, if there is a resolution in the Hormuz Strait, all this will change very quickly. I think we would go back to having a rate-cut cycle. But again, this is beyond any of our control. At the moment, though, the Fed is clearly moving from easing towards more of a hawkish tilt. And that, of course, is not good for financial assets. The 30-year treasury security most recently made multi-decade highs. And, you know, that could be a trend.
我们看到这种情况正在全球发生。好的，我要谈的第二件事是即将到来的SpaceX首次公开募股（IPO），这被宣传为可能是有史以来规模最大的IPO。目前，我们并不确切知道它究竟会有多大规模，因为我们尚不清楚定价情况。看起来人们在讨论总估值可能达到1.5万亿美元到2万亿美元之间。他们不会卖掉所有的股票，而是出售一部分。据说他们可能会出售价值750亿美元的股票。那么，SpaceX是什么，它意味着什么呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And we see that happening across the world. All right. The second thing I want to talk about is the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which looks like it's advertised as going to be the largest IPO ever. At the moment, we don't really know just how large it's going to be because we don't really know the pricing. It looks like people are talking about maybe a $1.5 to $2 trillion total valuation. And they're not going to sell all the stock. They're going to sell some stock. So it looks like I think people are suggesting maybe $75 billion in stock being sold. So just what is SpaceX and what does that mean?
所以，如果公司估值在1.5万亿到2万亿美元之间，您会期望公司极其盈利和成功，对吗？那么，让我们来看看SpaceX提交的招股说明书。SpaceX实际上有三条业务线。第一条当然是发射火箭进入太空。美国政府常会雇佣他们将物品送入太空。这是一个业务线，也是大家通常会想到的SpaceX业务。但是，他们其实还有另外两条业务线。一个是“星链”（Starlink），他们为消费者和企业提供卫星互联网服务。我自己也在使用星链，效果很好，非常推荐。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So again, at a $1.5 to $2 trillion valuation, you'd expect the company to be ultra, ultra profitable and ultra, ultra successful, right? Well, let's take a look at SpaceX's prospectus they're filing. So SpaceX actually has three business lines. One, of course, is their business line of shooting rockets into space. Oftentimes, say the US government hires them to send stuff into space. That's one business line. And I guess what you would commonly associate SpaceX with. But actually, they also have other two other lines. One is Starlink, where they launch satellites into space for consumer and business internet. I actually have a Starlink as well. And it works very well. Highly recommend it.
我用它作为备用的网络设备。真的是很神奇的东西，真的。它只是一个小塑料设备。你把它放在室外，就可以获得相当好的网络信号。真是令人惊叹的技术。而且Starlink实际上是SpaceX业务中最赚钱的部分。他们确实有付费客户，全球有很多人继续购买Starlink来接入互联网。目前，Starlink的速度没有光纤或有线快。但如果你住在农村地区，或者可能在发展中国家，甚至在战区，Starlink都是获得宽带接入的一个很好的方式。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I use it as a backup internet thing. It's really amazing stuff, really. It's just a kind of a small plastic piece of equipment. You put it outside and suddenly you can have pretty good internet reception. Truly amazing technology. And Starlink actually is the most profitable part of the SpaceX business side. So they actually have paying customers. They actually have a lot of people throughout the world that continue to buy Starlink to access internet. Now, Starlink is not as fast as a fiber or cable. But if you say live in a rural place, or maybe in a developing country, or maybe are in a war zone, Starlink is a really good way to get broadband access.
SpaceX正在以极快的速度发射卫星，因此Starlink的覆盖范围在不断扩大，接收速度也在加快。此外，Starlink的另一个业务线是XAI。前不久，XAI和SpaceX进行了合并。XAI显然是为推特服务的人工智能Grok。同时，这也带来了许多数据中心设施。在分析SpaceX的财务状况时，可以看到它实际上是亏损的。去年，它的收入约为200亿美元，但在2025年亏损了40亿美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And SpaceX has been launching satellites really very rapidly. So that Starlink coverage has been improving, and reception speed has been accelerating as well. Another business line that Starlink SpaceX has, of course, is XAI. There was a merger between XAI and SpaceX not too long ago. And XAI obviously is a Grok, the AI for Twitter. And also, of course, there's a lot of data center facilities that come with that as well. At the end of the day, when you look at the financials for SpaceX, you can see that it actually loses money. So last year, it did about 20 billion dollars in revenue and lost 4 billion dollars in 2025.
所以，一家希望估值达到1.5至2万亿美元的公司每年却亏损40亿美元。这看起来似乎不合常理，但你知道，现在情况就是这样。那么他们的宣传到底是什么？实际上，他们的宣传风格一如典型的埃隆式，即非常宏大。让我们看看他们招股说明书中的这一张幻灯片。这是他们所谓的“总可寻址市场”（TAM），在技术领域非常流行。TAM基本上是指他们潜在市场的规模。你可以看到，他们的潜在市场是巨大的。包括数据中心，还有星际项目，更多的互联网。基本上，他们在告诉你，太空是一个广阔而未被开发的巨大市场。这里的总TAM可能是29万亿美元，对吧？所以从理论上讲，看看这个数据，他们实际上可以成长为非常非常庞大，非常盈利的公司。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So a company that would like to have a valuation of 1.5 to 2 trillion dollars is losing 4 billion dollars a year. Doesn't seem to make sense, but you know, that's how it is at the moment. So what is their pitch, really? So their pitch actually is, again, in typical Elon fashion to be very grandiose. So let's look at this slide from their prospectus filing. This is what they call their total addressable market, TAM, which is very popular in the tech space. TAM is basically the size of their potential market. And you can see that their potential market is vast. You got data centers. You got, you know, interspeller stuff. You got more internet. Basically, they're telling you that space is a vast and untapped and huge, huge, huge market. Total TAM for everything here, maybe 29 trillion dollars, right? So in theory, looking at this figure, they could actually grow to become tremendously, tremendously huge, tremendously profitable.
太空当然是人类最后的边疆。换个角度看，他们也有各种各样的目标。其中之一是把数据中心建在太空中，这样就能利用太阳能。这将克服地球上数据中心最大的限制之一：能源问题。而且，身处太空，你也不需要很多制冷，这样会提高效率。当然，如何将数据中心送到太空是个问题，不过我想我们总能找到办法。当然，他们的愿景之一是在火星上建立一个拥有100万人口的人类殖民地，这是他们很长远的目标。在公司的计划书中，还有大量的股票奖励给埃隆·马斯克，如果他达成这些巨大的里程碑的话。如果这个计划能持续成功，埃隆有可能成为世界上第一个万亿富翁。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
The space, of course, is the last frontier. If you look into the perspective, they also have all sorts of goals. One is to have data centers in space where you can benefit from solar power. So again, taking away one of the largest constraints on earth based data centers, that is energy. And of course, if you're in space, you also don't need a lot of cooling. So that will make it more efficient. Again, how do you get a data center in space? I guess we'll figure that out. And of course, one of their aspirations is to have a colony, a human colony on Mars, with 1 million habitants. So that's that's their very long term ambition. And in the prospectus, there's also a tremendous amount of stock awards to Elon, should he hit these huge milestones. And Elon, it looks like he may become the world's first trillionaire in this, if this endeavor continues to succeed.
再次强调，这是一个非常非常雄心勃勃的项目，估值非常非常高。这样说是否合理？我认为我们应该同时考虑埃隆的其他企业。让我们看看特斯拉。如果你看看特斯拉，它是一家市值1.5万亿美元的公司。你还可以看到，它的市盈率是几百倍，对吧？所以，从传统的估值标准来看，这是无法理解的。相比之下，我们可以看看它的同行——丰田。丰田当然是一家非常知名、历史悠久的公司，它制造了一些很棒的汽车。我自己也有一辆丰田车。丰田的市值为几千亿美元，市盈率仅为10倍左右。就是说，按照传统的估值标准，它算是一家更便宜的公司。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Again, so this is a very, very ambitious endeavor, with a very, very large valuation. Does it make sense? Well, I think in order to think about this, we should also think about Elon's other ventures. Let's look at Tesla. If you look at Tesla, you can see that it's a 1.5 trillion dollar macro cap company. You can also see that its price to earnings ratio is a few hundred, right? So there is, there is no way that you can make sense of this in conventional valuation metrics. In contrast, we can look at its peer Toyota. Toyota, Toyota, of course, a very well known company, very well established, makes some great cars. I have a Toyota. Toyota trades at a market value market cap of a few hundred billion, trades at a much more modest PE multiple of 10. So it's, I guess, a much cheaper company on conventional valuation metrics.
如果你看看汽车销售情况，丰田每年大约销售1000到1100万辆汽车，而特斯拉每年大约销售200万辆汽车。所以丰田的销量远远超过特斯拉，但从市值来看，丰田公司要小得多，估值也便宜得多。这说明了什么呢？首先，这应该再次告诉你，我一直在说的一个观点：盈利并不是市场的驱动力。推动市场的是杠杆和动量。其次，显然，埃隆·马斯克在股市方面是一个非常成功的企业家，他在追求一个非常激进的估值目标。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
If you look at the car sold, Toyota sells about, say, 10, 11 million cars a year. Tesla sells about 2 million cars a year. So Toyota sells many, many more cars, but it is, of course, in terms of market cap, a much smaller company and also a much cheaply valued company. So what does this tell you all? First of all, it should tell you, reinforce that point that I've been telling you for some time that earnings don't matter. What drives markets is leverage and momentum. And secondly, of course, Elon is a very, very successful entrepreneur, particularly when it comes to the stock market, and he's shooting for a very, very aggressive valuation.
现在，如何对一个像SpaceX这样的公司进行估值呢？这个公司并没有盈利，每年都在亏损。不过，他们似乎要努力实现1.5到2万亿美元的估值。归根结底，经济学中唯一有效的因素就是供需关系。这意味着将会有大量的股权供应涌入市场。我想，那些可以出售SpaceX股票的人会考虑在这个时候套现。另一方面，这将和当时其他股权发行产生竞争，从而对市场估值产生一定影响。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, how do you value a company like SpaceX that doesn't make any money, that loses money every year? Well, it looks like they're going to shoot for a 1.5 to 2 trillion dollar valuation. Now, at the end of the day, the only thing in economics that works is supply and demand. This suggests that there's going to be a huge influx of equity supply. I imagine that the people who can sell their SpaceX shares are going to look at this and try to cash out. Again, that's going to compete with other equity offerings at the time. And that's going to have some impact on the market valuation.
此外，我还想指出，OpenAI 和 Anthropic 也非常希望进行上市。他们知道，目前市场对人工智能和科技相关股票的需求非常强烈。因此，他们想出售人工智能和科技管理类的股份，这是完全合乎情理的。但是，在本次讨论中，我要强调市场面临的两个很大的阻力。一是市场已经将加息的预期计入价格中，二是即将来临的股票供应量增加。这些都是我们应该牢记的市场阻力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
In addition, I'd also note that OpenAI and Anthropic are also very eager to file and go public. And they know that there's tremendous demand for AI and tech related shares at the moment. And so they want to sell AI and tech management shares totally reasonable. But again, I'm highlighting in this session, two very large headwinds to the market. One, of course, is that the market is pricing in rate hikes. And the second, we have upcoming increasingly supply of equity securities. These are all headwinds that we should keep in mind of.
当然，未来我们还应该考虑其他对实体经济更真实的影响，但这些影响会随着战略石油储备（SPR）和其他因素的消耗逐渐显现。好了，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。目前有很多事情发生，大多与地缘政治有关。让我们看看接下来会发生什么，这将决定未来几个月经济和市场的走势。我想下周再和大家聊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
There is, of course, other more real economy impacts that we should think about going forward, but those will emerge gradually as the SPR and other things to drain. All right, so that's all I've prepared for today. Again, a lot of things happening, mostly geopolitical. So let's take a look at what happens. That will define what happens to the economy and to the markets for the coming months, I think. All right, talk to you all next week.