Markets Weekly May 16, 2026
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摘要
#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
01:17 - Global Rate Surge
07:50 - Lessons From Farm Productivity
For my latest thoughts:
www.fedguy.com
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
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中英文字稿 
你好，我的朋友们。今天是5月16日，这是《每周市场》栏目。好了，上周和往常一样，股市每天都在上涨，并创下历史新高，直到星期五发生了一些非常奇怪的事情。股市好像收盘下跌了，所以我认为相关部门正在调查这一情况。我听说他们打算在周末时把系统断开再重新启动，有时候这样可以解决问题。星期一我们会见分晓。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is May 16th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, so last week, as usual, the stock market was up every single day. All-time highs, all-time highs. Until Friday, something very strange happened. It looked like it closed down, so I think the authorities are looking to it. I hear they're going to unplug it and plug it back in during the weekend, and sometimes that fixes things. So we'll find out on Monday.
上周，我们迎来了备受期待的特朗普-习近平峰会。特朗普和一大批商业巨头一起访问中国，期间产生了不少引人注目的合影机会，但似乎并没有取得实质性成果。我本想在这次会议中寻找有关如何解决伊朗冲突的线索，但未能找到。不过值得注意的是，习近平主席在会上非常强调台湾对他的重要性，而此时美国正准备向台湾出售更多武器。所以，我想，对双方而言，这可能是一个有些尴尬的时刻。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Also, last week, we had the highly, highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Trump flew in to China with a whole bunch of captains of industry and produced a lot of memorable photo opportunities, but it doesn't seem like much materialized from it. I was looking for clues as to how the Iran conflict could be resolved. I did not see any. What was noteworthy, though, was that President Xi strongly emphasized the importance of Taiwan to him, and this is occurring in the context of the U.S. about to sell more arms to Taiwan. So it was, I guess, an awkward moment for them.
今天，我们来谈论两件事。首先，我们来说说全球收益率的上涨，这似乎开始影响风险资产。其次，我们聊聊农业生产率的历史，因为这可能为我们了解人工智能带来的生产率革命提供线索。
好的，我们先从利率开始。众所周知，较高的利率通常对股市不利。你可以这样理解，当收益率足够高时，有些人可能会从股票转向债券，以锁定一些收益。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Today, let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about the global surge in yields that is seemingly beginning to impact risk assets. And secondly, let's talk a little bit about the history of farm productivity, because that may give us clues as to how the AI productivity revolution will unfold. All right, starting with rates. So as we all know, higher rates is usually not good for the stock market. You can think of it as, say, yields go high enough. Maybe some people rotate from stocks into bonds to get to lock in some yields.
您可以这样理解，比方说，您有一个多元化的投资组合。当债券市场下跌时，您在债券上的投资比例会下降，因此您可能会卖出一些股票，重新配置到债券上以维持您的投资比例。不管怎样，更高的收益率通常对股市不利。而在过去几周，我们看到不仅美国，全球的收益率都在稳步上升。不过在周五，它们明显飙升。美国的10年期国债收益率几乎升到了4.6%，仅在一天内就上升了约13个基点，这算是一项相当大的变化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You can also think of it that, let's say, you have a diversified portfolio. As the bond market sells off, your allocation to bonds declines, and so you maybe sell some stocks, rebalance into bonds to maintain your allocation percentages. In any case, higher yields is usually not good for the stock market. And over the past few weeks, we've seen yields not just in the U.S., but globally rise steadily. On Friday, though, they notably surged. The U.S. 10-year yield up to almost 4.6%, about 13 basis points up in a single day, which is a pretty big move.
现在，这一行动主要由几个因素驱动。首先，我们预期到政策的路径将更为鹰派，尽管凯文·沃尔什很快就会成为美联储主席。另外，还有一些全球因素在发挥作用。全球债券市场的波动是全球性的，这似乎也对美国的收益率产生了一定影响。不过，让我们先从国内的情况开始说起。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, that move is largely driven by a couple things. One is that we are pricing it a much more hawkish path of policy, notwithstanding that Kevin Walsh will soon be the Fed chair. Secondly, though, there are also global factors at play here. The global bond market route is global, and it seems to be likely having some impact on U.S. yields as well. But let's first start with what's happening domestically.
正如我在《中央银行101》这本书中所讲的，收益率主要反映了市场对美联储政策走向的预期，而市场对美联储政策的预期已经发生了很大的变化。我们分析美联储政策时，通常会关注短期利率期货。一个月前，期货市场预计会出现降息周期。当时，我们都在想，也许劳动力市场会走弱，也许通货膨胀会下降，因为这些关税问题可能只是一种对价格水平的一次性冲击。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So as we cover in my book, Central Banking 101, yields are largely the expected path of Fed policy, and there's been a very large shift in what the market expects the Fed to do. The way we look at Fed policy is, of course, we look at short-term interest rate futures. Now, so for futures, a month ago was pricing in a rate-cut cycle, right? So at that point in time, we were all thinking, hey, maybe the labor market will weaken, maybe inflation will come down, because as these tariff things, maybe they're just a one-time shock to the price level.
它们是暂时的，因此这会给美联储一些降息的空间。当然，我们还有这位温和派人物凯文·沃尔什的加入。但在这期间，发生了很多事情。我们看到中东的能源危机可能会持续得比许多人预期的更久。杰罗姆·鲍威尔基本上仍会在美联储任职，而我们最近也看到了最新的通胀数据。上周公布的消费者价格指数（CPI）比预期要高。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
They're transitory, and so that will give the Fed some room to cut. And, of course, we have this dovish guy, Kevin Walsh, coming in. But between then and now, a lot of things have happened. We've seen that the Middle Eastern energy crisis is probably going to last longer than many expect. We have JP basically staying at the Fed, and we have the most recent inflation numbers. Last week, we had CPI, and it was hotter than expected.
从总体CPI来看，目前我们大概在4%左右。预计这个数字会继续上升，因此在未来几个月，总体CPI可能会超过4%。至于核心CPI，它基本上保持在过去几个月的水平，大约是3%左右。但实际上，美联储将核心CPI视为未来通胀的一个指标，但其目标是总体CPI。所以，总体CPI会达到4%甚至更高。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So looking at headline CPI, we're basically around 4%. It's going to continue to go higher. So in the coming months, it's probably going to go above 4% on a headline basis. Looking at core, it's basically where it's been the past several months, just around 3%. But at the end of the day, the Fed looks at core as an indicator for what future inflation could be, but it targets headline. And so your headline is going to 4% and above.
而且，最重要的是，在过去几年中，你经历了太多、太多的冲击。你可以透过这些冲击看到本质，这是央行培训中教给你的。但你先是经历了新冠冲击，然后是关税冲击，现在又面临能源冲击。这意味着多年里通胀率都高于你的目标。这让美联储官员，即使是那些比较鸽派的，也更犹豫是否要忽视这些冲击。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And on top of that, over the past few years, you've had so many, so many shocks. You can look through shocks. That's what they teach you at Central Banking School. But you have the COVID shock, and then you have the tariff shock, and now you have the energy shock. That's many years above your target. That makes Fed officials, even the more dovish ones, a bit more hesitant to look through.
目前，当你观察短期利率期货时，会发现市场实际上预计在一年内会有两次加息。抱歉，是两次加息。也就是说，我们从一个降息周期在短短几周内转变为一个非常小的加息周期。这是一个非常大的变化。因此，随着市场预计美联储会更加鹰派，你可以看到整个曲线向上移动。当然，这对于任何与利率相关的事物来说，都会成为一个不利因素。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So at the moment, when you look at short-term interest rate futures, they're pricing in actually two cuts, let's say, within a year. I'm sorry, two hikes within a year. So you look at that rate cut path. We went from a cutting cycle to a very small hiking cycle in the matter of a few weeks. Very, very big change. And so as the market is pricing in a more hawkish Fed, you can see that the entire curve shifts up. So that alone, of course, is going to be a headwind for anything that's interest rate sensitive.
我认为抵押贷款利率上升对房屋建筑商来说不是好事。同时，这也会对风险资产造成阻力。当然，这里还有一个全球因素。如果你放眼全球，这次能源冲击对各国的影响各不相同。我们知道美国相对而言受到的影响较小，但看看油价，仍然在上涨，全国各地的油价普遍超过了每加仑4美元，可能很快就会达到5美元一加仑。尽管美国相对受到的影响较小，但仍然受到波及。在亚洲一些国家，情况甚至更糟，这些国家不生产石油。日本和中国拥有相对较大的主权储备，但归根结底，他们仍然非常依赖海湾地区的进口资源，不仅仅是石油。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
I would imagine mortgage rates going back up is not going to be good for home builders. But also, it's going to be a headwind for risk assets as well. Now, there is, of course, the global component. If you look across the world, this energy shock is affecting countries in different ways. We know that in the U.S., relatively insulated, but come on, look at gas prices still going higher, above $4 everywhere in the U.S., maybe it will go to $5 a gallon soon. Even though the U.S. is relatively insulated, it's still impacted. It's even worse in countries, let's say, in Asia, which don't have any natural – so don't produce any oil themselves. Japan and China have notably very large sovereign reserves. But at the end of the day, they are still much more dependent upon what comes through the Gulf, not just oil.
你会发现石化产品和各种化学物质。在像马来西亚和泰国这样的地方，有一些很大的问题。在日本，这将是一个特别大的问题，因为他们的货币一直疲软，并且他们进口大量石油。因此，你可以看到在日本，收益率一直在飙升，而在欧洲也是如此。尤其是在英国，他们有一些政治问题，这也推动了他们的收益率上升。所以当全球收益率上升时，美国的收益率也会被拉高。全球投资者当然可以在不同的司法管辖区之间移动。有些人喜欢把这看作是某种期限溢价。我认为这有一定的道理。期限溢价基本上是对政策路径的不确定性。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You find petrochemical items and all sorts of chemical stuff. So there are reports that in places like Malaysia, for example, in Thailand, they have some really big problems. So in Japan, that's going to be notably a big problem because, of course, their currency has been weak, and they import a ton of oil. So you can see in Japan, the yields have been surging, and in Europe as well. And in the U.K. in particular, they have some political problems here. That's also pushing their yields higher. So when global yields rise, that's going to drag up U.S. yields as well. Investors – global investors can, of course, move across jurisdictions. Now, some people like to cast this as some kind of term premium. That's – I think that's a little bit reasonable. Term premium is basically uncertainty in the path of policy.
当你面临这些地缘政治冲击和其他似乎经常发生的冲击时，对政策走向的不确定性增加是可以理解的，因此风险溢价也会提高。从目前的情况来看，我们可能会走向更糟糕的局面。例如，现货石油价格正在上升。因此，只要霍尔木兹海峡继续关闭，石油价格就会继续上涨，各种短缺问题将会出现，通货膨胀将愈加明显，甚至可能出现物资短缺。我认为全球收益率将继续上升，这对市场不利。此外，请注意5月16日的期权到期和期权流动显然对股价也有重大影响。所以，这一切的发展将取决于地缘政治局势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And when you have all these geopolitical shocks and other shocks that seem to be recurring, it makes sense for you to have more uncertainty as to the path of policy and thus have more of a risk premium. So the way that this is going, we are heading toward a situation where this is probably going to get worse. When you look at spot oil, it takes up higher. So we're basically on track for as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices continue to take higher, all sorts of shortages emerge, inflation becomes, I think, a bit more apparent, outright shortages occur. And then I think global yields will continue to rise and that that's going to be bad for the market. Also note that May 16th with also options expedite and options flows obviously has a big impact on equity prices as well. So how this plays out is going to depend on geopolitics.
目前情况尚不明确，不知道接下来会发生什么。有报道说美国和以色列可能会恢复打击，试图在对伊朗施压方面获得更多筹码，但过去这种方法并不奏效，现在也不大可能有效。同时，他们也不能对此不闻不问，因为一方面伊朗经济承受着很大的压力，但伊朗似乎非常有韧性；另一方面，这也影响着全球资产价格。因此，我们拭目以待，一切取决于总统的决定。接下来，我想谈谈农业生产力。为什么要谈农业生产力呢？因为我在查看相关数据时，发现我们可以从过去一个世纪的农业革命以及当前的人工智能发展中学到很多东西。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And at the moment, it's really not clear what's going to happen. There are reports that maybe the U.S. and Israel may resume strikes to try to gain more leverage over Iran, but that hasn't worked in the past, don't think it's going to work right now. And they also just can't leave this alone because, again, pressure is cooking both on the Iranian economy, but they seem to be very resilient, and on the global asset prices as well. So we'll see what happens. Everything will come down to what the president decides. All right, the second thing that I want to talk about is farming productivity. Now, why talk about farming productivity? Because as I was looking at the numbers here, I think there's a lot we can learn about the agriculture revolution we had over the past century and what's happening with AI today.
如果你看这张图表，大约150年前，大约一半的人口从事农业。大多数人都是务农为生，也许有些人拥有稍大一点的农场，可以出售或生产农产品，但总之大家都在耕种土地。而从那时到现在，从事农业的人口数量急剧减少。如今，美国劳动力中只有很小的一部分是在农业领域。然而，与过去相比，我们现在生产的农产品却多得多，人们的饮食也比以前好很多。就是说，人均消费量在过去的一百年间稳步上升，主要是因为鸡肉的供应丰富。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So if you look at this chart, let's say 150 years ago, you had basically about half the population work in agriculture. Most people were just, you know, I guess, subsistence farmers. Maybe they had slightly bigger farms where they could sell or produce, but people worked the land. Now, between then and now, you have this dramatic shrinkage of the amount of people who are farming the land. It's very, just a very, very small percentage of the U.S. labor force is in agriculture right now. Yet at the same time, we produce much more farm products today than we ever have before, and people eat much better than they did before. I mean, consumption per capita has steadily risen over the past hundred years, largely due to the abundance of chicken.
那么，我们如何协调这一点呢？工作的人的确变少了，但生产量却增加了，而且每个人的饮食状况都变得更好。事实上，有些人甚至认为由于肥胖危机，有些人可能吃得太多了。当然，这一切的"魔法"就是生产力。在过去的一百年里，农业经历了多次革命。过去，我们只能依靠人力耕作，而现在，我们有了大型机械，可以在一天之内耕种数百英亩的土地。在合成肥料和各种农业技术方面，我们也有了更多技术支持。因此，这些技术知识大大提高了生产力，使得少数人能生产更多粮食，足以养活更大的人口。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So how do we reconcile this? Fewer people working, and yet you're producing more, and everyone is eating better. In fact, some would say because of the obesity crisis, some are eating too much. Well, the magic of this, of course, is productivity. Over the last hundred years, there's been revolutions in farming. Now, in the past, we were tilling with just manual labor. Now we have machinery, huge machinery that can just till hundreds of acres in a single day. We have a lot more technology when it comes to synthetic fertilizers and all sorts of agricultural techniques. So all of this technological know-how massively, massively increased productivity such that only a small number of people can produce even more and support a larger population.
从农民的角度来看，思考一下这个问题。当他们突然拥有了这些工具后，能够生产更多的东西，他们的生产力大大提高。这是否意味着他们会变得更富有或更成功呢？实际上，从数据来看，并不是这样。对普通农民来说，这反而是毁灭性的。因为每个人都得到了这些工具，开始大量生产，导致农产品的价格暴跌。因此，他们无法盈利。而问题在于，他们还背负了大量债务去购买这些提高生产力的工具，但因收入名义上的下降，无法偿还这些债务。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So think about it from the farmer's perspective now. While suddenly you have all these tools, you can produce so much more stuff, you become much more productive. Does that mean you become richer? Does that mean you become more successful? Actually, just look at the numbers. You can see, no. Actually, it was ruinous, ruinous for the typical farmer. What happened is that everyone got these tools, and they began to produce tremendous amounts of stuff, and prices for their agricultural products plummeted. And so they were not able to make money, and the problem was they also took on a lot of debt to buy all these productivity-enhancing tools, and they could not repay that debt because their nominal income shrank.
尽管从实际情况来看，他们生产的商品和服务越来越多，但从货币角度来看，这些商品的价格却暴跌，因此他们的收入下降，导致他们难以偿还债务。许多人因此申请破产，不得不去其他地方寻找新工作。而那些最早适应这种变化的人则有一定的优势，他们能够生产大量农产品，并在价格尚未暴跌时获得丰厚收入。但这只是他们早期的优势。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Even though, in real terms, they were producing more and more goods and services, again, in monetary terms, the prices of those goods had imploded, and so their income declined, and so they were having trouble paying their debt. And so many of them filed for bankruptcy. They had to go find new jobs elsewhere. Again, the earlier adopters to this stuff, the very, very earlier people, they had a head start. They were able to produce a lot of farm products and reap a lot of income as prices were not yet imploded. But that was only the early advantage people.
最终，当然，价格崩溃了，他们也受到了影响。最后，存活下来的只有少数几家拥有大量资本的大型农场，因为它们能够实现规模经济并整合业务。但对于其他大多数农民来说，生活并不乐观。因此，他们最终不得不离开农业行业，转而从事制造业，并成为服务业的一员。过去，服务业规模并不大，而现在，它已成为美国最大的行业。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And eventually, though, of course, prices imploded, and they got impacted as well. At the end of the day, the people who survived were the few very large farms that had a lot of capital, were able to have economies of scale and consolidate their operations. But for most everyone else who was a farmer, life was not good. So what happened was that they eventually had to leave the agriculture industry. They worked in manufacturing, and they became people in the service industry. Back in the day, the service industry wasn't very large. Now it's the largest sector in the U.S.
基本上，你会发现一个全新的经济机会领域。想一想，播客主持人、Substack写作者之类的职业。所以，不仅仅是律师和医生这些传统行业，还有这些过去不存在的新兴服务行业都被创造出来了。所有这些人找到了各自的机会。虽然这个过程漫长且艰辛，但最终经济还是恢复了平衡。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so basically, you have this whole entire new realm of economic opportunity. I mean, think about it, podcasters, sub-stack writers, stuff like that. So not just lawyers and doctors, traditional stuff, but all these new service industries that did not exist in the past were basically created, and all these people found something to do. It was a long and painful process, but eventually the economy righted itself.
我提到这一点是因为人工智能也将是这样的。最终，人工智能实际上为知识工作提供了无限的生产力，对吧？举个例子，通常如果我有一些医学问题或者一些需要分析的医学数据，我可以去找医生，支付一些费用，然后获得分析结果。而如今，我可以通过人工智能瞬间获得全世界最优秀的分析，并且花费非常少，比如在云服务上，每月只需要大约100美元。当然，你也可以使用Gemini和其他人工智能提供的免费服务。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I mentioned this because AI is going to be like this as well. So at the end of the day, AI is basically infinite productivity for knowledge work, right? So let's say that usually if I had some medical problem or some medical data that I wanted to have analyzed, I could go to a doctor, pay the doctor some money, and I would get analysis. And today I can get basically the very best analysis in the entire world by AI in just basically just an instant. And it costs very, very, barely any money. Like for cloud, it's like $100 a month. And of course, you can use free services from Gemini and other AI as well.
这意味着服务生产的大幅增加，非常大。对于那些能够早期利用这一点的人来说，比如说你有一家律师事务所，或者是一个独立执业者。现在你可以使用人工智能进行法律研究，当然需要进行监督。这可能让你能处理更多的案件，从而大大提升工作效率。你可以产出更多的法律服务。然而，这种大幅度的生产力提升将显著增加服务的产出，这会导致服务价格大幅降低。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So that is a massive, massive increase in the production of services, massive. And for the people who can take advantage of this early, let's say you have a law firm. Maybe you are a solo practitioner. Now you can do legal research, of course, supervise legal research with AI. Maybe you can handle more cases. That's a massive amount of productivity boost. You can produce a lot more legal work. But again, this massive productivity is going to vastly increase the amount of goods and services produced. Sorry, amounts of services produced. And that's going to lead to much lower prices for services.
所有这些医生都将不得不与人工智能代理竞争。医疗行业是高度受监管的，但情况可能会变成，人们由于可以询问人工智能并获得相对不错的建议，可能有一天会更好的建议，而不再那么频繁地去看医生了。不管怎样，就像农业创新带来了农产品数量的巨大增长一样，这场人工智能革命将极大地提高服务的产出量。我认为，这些服务是真实增长的体现。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So all these doctors are going to have to compete with the AI agents. Again, medicine is highly regulated. But what could happen is that people simply don't go to doctors as much simply because they can ask the AI and get reasonably good advice and probably one day much better advice. So in any case, just like farming innovation produced tremendous increase in goods, farming goods. So this AI revolution vastly increases the amount of services produced. So that is services that that is, I think, in real terms.
这意味着你更富有了。每个人都更富有了。因为农业革命，我今天吃得更好。因为人工智能革命，我获得了更好的信息，而这些信息在过去可能需要花大量钱才能得到。但另一方面，提供这些服务的人，他们的收入会大幅缩水，对吧？最后，他们实际上并没有从中赚到什么钱。除了芯片和半导体的供应商，没人真正在这方面赚到钱。就像在农业革命时期，赚钱的是那些卖农机、技术和化肥的人。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That means you are wealthier. Everyone is wealthier. I eat better today because of the farming revolution. And I get much better information because of the AI revolution. Information that would have, in the past, cost me a lot of money. But again, the people who are selling these services, their income is going to massively deflate, right? So at the end of the day, they're not really making any money off of this. Nobody is really making any money off of this except the providers of the chips and semiconductors. Just like back in the agricultural revolution, it was the people who sold farming equipment, sold the technology, the fertilizers that made a lot of money.
其他人，其实并没有那么多好处。当然，公众能够获得更好的消费体验。这种情况同样适用于人工智能领域，所有这些模型和服务提供商，他们所出售的产品将面临大幅度的贬值。他们因此不会赚到很多钱。所有这些公司，如Anthropics和OpenAI，不仅仅在彼此之间竞争，还有来自中国的许多模型，它们基本上是开源的，并且与前沿模型的差距只有几个月。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Everyone else, not really so much. The public, of course, got to eat better. So it is for the AI stuff, all these models, all these service providers, there's going to be massive deflation in the stuff that they sell. And so they're not going to make any money. All these anthropics, the open AIs, not just that they're competing amongst themselves, but you also have in China a whole bunch of models that are basically open sourced and are just a few months behind the frontier models.
也许有一天，随着技术的进步，我们的手机上将会只需运行本地化的模型。当然，至少目前来看，主要的受益者会是那些大型芯片供应商，直到市场竞争更加激烈。这些芯片供应商就像是"卖铲子"的人，但实际上没有人真的因此赚到很多钱。这一点很重要，因为如果你认为人工智能革命能在某种程度上解决国家债务问题，那是不现实的。因为债务是按名义价值计算的，而人工智能提升的是实际生产力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And maybe one day, as technology advances, we'll have just localized models on our cell phones. So the winners, of course, are going to be the big chip providers, at the moment at least, until it becomes more competitive. The chip providers, the people who buy the picks and shovels, but no one is really making any money off of that. And that's important to think of because, let's say, if you were thinking that the AI revolution would somehow solve the national debt, well, that's just not going to happen because the debt is in nominal terms, but the AI productivity, that's in real terms.
当真正的商品和服务大量增加时，名义价格就会下降，这意味着你实际上并没有赚到更多收入。正如我之前提到的，人工智能会让我们变得更富有，但是最终，会赚到钱的人不会很多。而我们许多人则需要寻找新的工作机会。这些工作的具体方向是什么，我也不清楚。谁能想象在100年前我们会有播客主持人、Substack写作者这样的职业呢？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And when you have a massive increase in real goods and services, you have deflation in the nominal prices, and so you don't actually make income. So, like I said before, AI is going to make all of us wealthier, but at the end of the day, not many of us are going to make money. And a lot of us are just going to have to find new jobs. Where those jobs are, I have no idea. No one imagined that we would have, say, podcaster, substack writer, or whatnot 100 years ago.
所以，在未来，会出现一些人们现在无法想象的新工作。无论如何，我看到了一个关于农业生产力的插图，觉得这可以作为一个框架，帮助我们思考人工智能如何影响世界。顺便说一下，仅仅因为芯片股非常有利可图，并不意味着它们的股价每天都会上涨，或者值得很高的市盈率。这些很大程度上都是受市场情绪和趋势影响的。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so, in the future, there will be new jobs that emerge that people cannot imagine right now at the moment. So, anyway, I saw this illustration of farming productivity, and I thought it would be useful for us as a framework to think about how AI could impact the world. By the way, just because the chip stocks are very profitable doesn't mean that their stock prices go up every day, and they deserve tremendous P multiples or whatnot. That's something that's largely sentiment and momentum.
好的，这就是我为今天做的准备。希望你们觉得有趣，我下周再和你们聊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, so that's how I prepared for today. Hopefully, this was interesting, and I'll talk to you guys next week.