News! Robinhood/Duolingo IPOs, Big Tech earnings, China & more w/ TechCrunch’s Alex Wilhelm | E1257

This week in Startups is brought to you by LaNode is the leading independent public cloud provider Create an account and receive a $100 credit at laNode.com slash twist LinkedIn Jobs A business is only as strong as its people and every higher matters Post your first job for free at LinkedIn.com slash twist and master works.

本周的初创企业是由LaNode提供的，LaNode是领先的独立公共云提供商。您可以在LaNode.com/twist创建帐户并获得100美元的信用额度。LinkedIn Jobs平台上人才资源丰富，在任何行业，寻找最好的员工都很方便。您可以在LinkedIn.com/twist免费发布第一个职位。另外还有Masterworks艺术品投资平台，为投资人提供艺术品投资机会。

The first company allowing investors exposure into the blue chip artwork asset class. Twist listeners can skip the 30,000 person wait list by going to masterworks.io and using promo code twist.

这是首家允许投资者获得蓝筹股艺术品资产类别的公司。Twist听众可以通过前往masterworks.io并使用推广代码twist来跳过30,000人的等待名单。

Alright everybody welcome to this weekend Startups you got to treat for you you know I've been doing the news program and somebody said hey why don't you have somebody come on and chop up the news with you and I thought you know Alex Wilhelm is the best person to do that is a senior editor at TechCrunch and he is part of the first name club on Twitter at Alex you can follow him right now and he hosts their equity podcasts formerly blah blah blah blah next web TechCrunch, Matt or Mark, CrunchBase whatever he's been around the block and he now lives in the Northeast still in Providence or wherever.

大家好，欢迎来到这个周末的创业公司节目，我有一个好消息告诉大家。我一直在做新闻节目，有人建议让有经验的人来帮我解读新闻，我想到了Alex Wilhelm。他是TechCrunch的高级编辑，也是Twitter上第一个名字俱乐部的成员，你们现在可以关注他。他还主持了Equity Podcast，曾在The Next Web、TechCrunch、Matt或Mark以及CrunchBase等媒体工作过，是一个经验丰富的人。他现在住在东北部，仍然在普罗维登斯或其他地方生活。

Yeah yeah still in Providence but when you start looking at my resume and going blah blah blah it makes me 30 second birthday land a little harder than it did last week so thank you for making me feel ancient. You're not ancient I mean you still got you still got some energy how's your energy level now in year two of this God damn pandemic.

是的，我还在普罗维登斯，但当你开始看我的简历并一直讲话，让我在30岁生日的时候感觉比上周更难一些，谢谢您让我感觉古老了。你并不古老，我的意思是你还保持了一些能量，现在在这个该死的大流行病的第二年里你的能量水平是怎样的呢？

You know I'm actually doing okay we've adapted to having the third dog who's actually racing around my office right now and yeah but dogs wake up at like five and so I've been waking up at like five and so I've learned how to just be kind of chronically exhausted Jason. You know what it's interesting you say that we got a pandemic dog we got another bulldog. So we have a 15 year old bulldog fondue and then we have a new one Maximus as in Gladiator Max and he's like nine months old now and yeah Max loves at five thirty in the morning to walk in a circle and do the PP dance which is if you don't wake up I'm gonna pee and you know that is great motivation to jump out of bed in terror that you're about to be peed on that's literally my life now. I'm just very lucky my my wife is studying for her boards right now so she used to wake up early and study before work and so that means I can usually pass off the the three dogs to her but it didn't work this morning and so at five a.m. there I was picking up dog crap in the backyard just a really great way to spend a morning I got so it used to be so nice to go to an office and be an adult and live in a society it was a really interesting society do you remember society I remember a lot of public transit in San Francisco waiting for buses that were full when it was raining standing on the sidewalk and then drinking bad coffee in an office that everyone had a cold so like I I dismiss your romanticism and I love working from home which I know we'll get to it a little bit.

你知道吗，我其实还不错，我们已经适应了第三只狗，现在它正在我的办公室里疾驰，我们很高兴。但是狗一旦醒来就会在五点钟，所以我已经开始习惯处于长期疲劳的状态了。你知道吗，这很有趣，我们养了一只新的斗牛犬，最近得到了一只疫情期间养的狗。我们有一只15岁的斗牛犬 fondue，还有一只9个月大的新成员Maximus，因为它像战士一样强大，所以我们称它为Max。Max喜欢在早上五点半左右在花园里转圈子，并做着大小便之舞。如果你不醒来，它就要尿尿了，你知道这是多么恐怖，所以这是我现在的生活。我很幸运，因为我妻子现在正在准备考试，所以她以前会早起学习，这意味着我通常可以把这三只狗交给她。但是今早这样没有起作用，所以在五点钟，我在后院捡狗屎，真是一个美好的早晨。我以前喜欢去办公室，成为一个成年人，生活在社会中，但现在我爱在家工作，我知道我们之后会再谈这个问题。

It's interesting when you think about it like was there anything that you enjoyed about going to the office oh gosh I love I love working less it was great like because at the office there's so much stuff that looks like work. Oh so true yeah yeah right like a meeting for a walk and talk. Yeah yeah. We're getting lunch with your colleagues team building all that stuff now I just made the old 90 minute lunch with the 15 minute walk on either end you get 2.25 hours out of the 7.5 hour day fantastic. Jason I never worked for Google that's not how my life was. Holy on the roof.

当你考虑这个问题时，会感到很有趣，你是否喜欢去办公室？哦，天呐，我喜欢少工作，这很棒，因为在办公室有很多看起来像工作的事情。这是真的，没错，比如开会、散步谈心、和同事吃午饭、团队建设等等。现在我只需要在七个半小时的工作日里碰巧安排旧的九十分钟午餐时间，并在每端安排十五分钟的步行路程，这样我就能得到2.25个小时的自由时间。Jason，我从来没有为谷歌工作过，我的生活不是这样的。哇，在屋顶上。

Well listen it is a crazy news week where to begin. There's so much that was interesting this week I want to ask you yeah what to you was the most interesting part of the week not the most important but most interesting to you Alex the discrepancy in how Duolingo traded versus how Robinhood traded because if you had said the Fintech company will perform less well than the Edtech company I would have been like every VC is like to me if that's going to be true and yet here we are Edtech's looking great and Fintech took kind of a hit so I'm still digesting this kind of like post-unicorn IPO liquidity it's strange to me.

这周新闻太疯狂了，从哪里开始说起都有点不知道。有很多事情让我感兴趣，想问问你，对你来说这周最有趣的部分是什么，不一定是最重要的，但对你而言是最有趣的。对我来说，最有趣的是Duolingo和Robinhood交易的差异，因为如果你说金融科技公司的表现会比教育科技公司差，我会像每个风险投资家一样对你说这很可能是真的，但现在的结果是，教育科技的表现很棒，金融科技遭受了一些打击，所以我仍在思考这种独角兽上市后的流动性，这对我来说有些奇怪。

Yeah and so obviously I'm an interest or party was an angel investor in Robinhood they are trading today I thank you 36 dollars and 11 cents they went out at 38 dollars I think they hit 40 at one point yeah I'm looking at right now 40.25 is the 52 week back but some amount to this is I think due to the fact that they gave a third of the shares or something like that to their actual rabbit user base in their direct IPO product do you think that had some sort of impact here or the summer what do you think is going on here I think there's a lot of things that went into this but that's the most interesting one because when Robinhood announced they were going to open up IPO access for their users people were stoked like oh my gosh we finally get to have kind of similar footing to these large large investing groups but suddenly if you take away a big chunk of an early retail demand you really change up the supplied demand curve and I think you know frankly traders on platforms like Robinhood probably were pretty active in trading IPO's in general so if they have shares of the IPO price it probably reduces the frenzy around first trades and makes it maybe harder to have an expensive pop now you know Jason Bill girl is going to love this you know because all of a sudden doesn't seem to whine about on Twitter but Robinhood probably expected a little bit more after pricing at the bottom minute of its range there is does seem to be a big disjoint be a a big disconnect between what the press is reporting and what we as the investment community and we have both represented here and to a certain extent I represent both having been a former journalist there's this big gap between oh my god the IPO pop and that being the definition of success and then what we all experience as investors which is I invest in the company was like I think 30 million dollars so 30 million to 30 billion don't take a genius to do the math a little bit of dilution you know this is a 500x or whatever pretty pretty great return even with dilution because I didn't continue investing in my pro rata because I didn't do that back then yeah I mean I bought like another two houses exactly that's a costly bit of financial conservancy well you know it's one of the things about investing is you can learn from your mistakes when I started I was putting 2550k checks into companies like this and then just you know walking away in 10 years now we just did we had two companies in our portfolio that were raising at 300 million we own 10% of the company they're raising 30 million so our pro rata is 10% you know ballpark of that 30 million sure and we actually filled with our syndicate and our LPs with SPV special purpose vehicles those three million dollar bets to keep our 10% ownership in you know companies that were worth 300 and 600 million we had five to 10% ownership so we're actually maintaining ownership at those big numbers now so hopefully that pays off but what do you think that disconnect is about where you know on CNBC they're just like oh my god it didn't pop and it's like well aren't we supposed to price these things so they don't pop like what what does it say that it does pop

当然，显然我是Robinhood的天使投资人，他们今天交易了，我感谢他们36美元11分的股价，他们以38美元的价格出售了股份，我想他们在某个时候达到了40美元，现在我正在看它40.25是52周的最佳表现，但是其中一些是因为他们向他们直接的IPO产品的实际兔用户基础中提供了三分之一的股份，您认为这在这里产生了一些影响，或者还有其他什么原因？我认为有很多因素导致了这种情况，但这是最有趣的因素，因为当Robinhood宣布他们将为用户开放IPO访问权限时，人们很兴奋，因为我们终于可以与这些大型投资组手持类似的脚跟，但是如果您取消早期零售需求的大块头，您真的会改变供给需求曲线，而我认为在Robinhood这样的平台上交易者可能会在一般的IPO交易中非常活跃，所以如果他们以IPO价格持有股票，这可能会减少关于第一次交易的狂热情绪，使其更难实现昂贵的繁荣。现在，Jason Bill女孩会喜欢这个，因为突然之间似乎没有人会在Twitter上抱怨，但是Robinhood可能在定价时预计会有更多的利润。绵羊的范围内有新的岛屿。在新岛屿时间线的上部。在红色的第一章["为和平女神打工的女孩"]之前，在第0章。存档数据的索引。从左边的扉页进入，就能进入其他存档数据。

Yeah, so I talked to a lot of CEOs on IPO days. So, I've done just over the years dozens of these calls with people that are literally sitting there in the room watching their stock begin to trade. I managed to kind of learn around the edges how they think about pops. Every CEO taking a company public wants to see 10 to 15% gains in the first day. It makes them look really good. It gives their employees something to be proud about. All the investors they should have locked in for the long term. During their road, slow chairs to have a great first day, it really just likes moves butter over the entire piece of bread. I don't mind that, the mechanism.

嗯，我在IPO日与许多CEO交谈过。这些年来，我和数十个人进行了这样的通话，这些人实际上坐在那里观看他们的股票开始交易。我通过边缘了解到了他们如何考虑炒作。每个上市公司的CEO都希望在第一天看到10%至15%的涨幅。这会让他们看起来非常好。它为他们的员工提供了自豪感。他们应该锁定的所有投资者也应该长期持有。在路演期间，慢慢地让股价在第一天表现很好，就像在整个面包上涂抹黄油一样轻松。我不介意这个机制。

Yeah, IPOs are an agronistic to some degree given how they're done, but the media and cable news I would not conflict because okay. I don't watch cable news at all because I don't have time to waste on that, and I would not say that you know tracking the views of different CNN anchors or CNBC anchors is the the way to gauge media sentiment because Jim Kramer is what very loud and I don't think he's indicative of what what I do or what you used to do.

是的，IPO（首次公开募股）在一定程度上是农业主义的，因为它们的操作方式，但是我不会因为这个与媒体和有线新闻产生冲突。我根本不看有线新闻，因为我没有时间浪费在这上面，我也不认为追踪不同CNN或CNBC主持人的观点就是衡量媒体情绪的方法，因为Jim Kramer非常响亮，我不认为他能代表我或你过去所做的事情。

I so I do think there is something to that nuance where if you're on TV and you have the ticker, you have something to measure. The entire point of CNBC or Bloomberg is up to the minute, and if you want something up to the minute, having a data feed that you get to feel the pulse on, makes it feel more live. Just like the score in a basketball game. Absolutely. You tune in, and it's on the screen, it's moving up and down, so you have a scorecard. It is one of the appeals, but I think there's this misconception that this would be a failure or you know a win plus or minus 10%. Actually, to the majority of people who own chairs, it doesn't actually matter. Certainly doesn't matter to me because the way I look at this now and I'm curious your thoughts.

我认为，在电视上播出财经新闻时，滚动条的存在非常重要。CNBC或彭博社发布财经新闻，最重要的是要随时更新信息。如果你想要了解最新资讯，滚动条可以让你感受到脉搏，让整个新闻更具实时性。这就像篮球比赛的比分一样，当你收看比赛时，比分会显示在屏幕上不断变化，你会有一个比分卡，这是其中一个吸引人的特点。但我认为有人会误认为这会导致成功或失败10%的波动，而实际上，对于拥有交易席位的大多数人来说，并不重要。这对我来说确实无关紧要，因为我现在的看法是，你对此有什么想法呢？

Putting aside any of the trip-ups that Robin had had with GameStop, we could talk about those obviously, but putting that aside, when you look at the actual metrics of this company. It was 18 million when they filed their S1 in terms of accounts. 17.x% were active every month or something. And then you had this incredible revelation that now they're 22 million. So, maybe you could speak to the scope or the scale of this company and what you think is possible. Yeah, I think if you look back to the start of 2020 and then if you told us where we're going to be today, we would be very confused about what changed.

暂且不谈Robin与GameStop的麻烦，我们当然可以谈论这些，但暂且不提。当我们考虑这家公司的实际数据时，该公司在提交S1时有1800万账户，其中约17.x％每月活跃。现在这家公司有了令人难以置信的惊人数据，已经扩张到了2200万。您可能可以谈谈这家公司的范围或规模，以及您认为可能出现什么情况。是的，如果我们回顾2020年初的情况，并告诉我们今天的情况，我们会对发生了什么感到困惑。

But there was during the pandemic an enormous boom in savings and investing activity amongst consumers. This drove Robinhood, it drove in one finance, it drove I mean a Toro around the world. I mean Coinbase got an enormous lift from this. Even Bitcoin began to be better people just had a lot of cash. Like Jason, you didn't leave your house for a while. I didn't. I spent no money. I went grocery shopping once a week, and I just ate bananas. Like I just saved money. And so, people put that to work. And so, Robinhood is enjoying this enormous boom, not just in the appreciation of the value of the stock market in crypto trading in general, but also just folks having cash.

在大流行期间，消费者的储蓄和投资活动出现了巨大的增长。这促使了Robinhood、One Finance、iMarketsLive等公司的发展，Coinbase也因此获得了巨大的提升。甚至比特币也得到了更多关注，因为人们有很多现金。就像Jason一样，你也有一段时间没有出门了。我也是。我没花过钱。我一周只去一次杂货店，只吃香蕉。人们将这些积蓄投入到了工作中。因此，Robinhood不仅在股票市场和加密交易的升值方面受益，而且还因为人们有现金而获得了巨大的发展。

So, Robinhood is just as one aside. Think about all the money we saved not going on vacation or business trips or conferences. I looked at those three, and I was like you know for me, I was doing four speaking gigs a year. All of that's business class travel and really you know, great hotels all that money just didn't actually flow during this. You know, Verizon never put me in business class. I just want to say, and then they sold me to follow. Yeah, I protest no. I don't know who to launch now. It's still Verizon Media Group until the Apollo deal closes, and then we'll be owned by it'll be called, yeah, yeah who. I think again when you'll be so. You'll be right. You're right, but I'm I correct that is it's a private equity firm now owns and gadget and TechCrunch.

因此，Robinhood只是一个旁白而已。想想我们节省下来的所有钱，不用去度假、出差或参加会议。我看了看那三者，我对自己说，对我来说，我每年要做四个演讲，这些都是商务舱旅行，还有非常好的酒店，但这些钱在这段时间内实际上并没有流通。Verizon从未让我坐商务舱。我只想说，然后他们将我出售给了一个跟随者。是的，我不同意。我不知道现在该支持谁了。目前仍然是Verizon Media Group，直到Apollo的交易完成，我们将被拥有者所拥有，即即将被称为是Yeah Yeah Who。我想，当你们真的理解时，你们就会明白。你是对的，但是否正确，现在私募股权公司拥有engadget和TechCrunch。

Well, the deal has been announced and agreed on but hasn't get closed so we're in that awkward period in which like you broke up with someone but you still live in the same house that's kind of where. Just as we're in this all on this tangent sure, what does that mean in terms of like management of your brand, is there some, are you guys just off on this island just doing the best you can or is there somebody like we have to hit these numbers and there's a sense of urgency?

嗯，交易已经宣布和同意了，但还没有结束，所以我们处于这种尴尬的时期，就像你和某个人分手了，但你们仍然住在同一个房子里，这有点尴尬。正如我们在这个话题上，那么就像你们品牌管理方面的管理是什么意思？是这么的，你们只是在孤岛上做你们能做到的最好吗？还是有一些人说我们必须达到这些数字，有一种紧迫感？

TechCrunches culture this is my second time at TC, so I'm two different kind of blocks of time at the organization the ethos of TC has been preserved through all of the corporate storm and wrong, and so I'm optimistic that we're gonna hold on to it again post-pollum but you know private equity has a reputation for a reason.

TechCrunch的文化。这是我第二次来到TC，所以我在这个组织中有两种不同的时间块。TC的精神通过所有的公司风暴和错误得到了保持，因此我乐观地认为，在后疫情时代，我们将会再次坚持它。但你知道，私募股权有它的声誉，这是有原因的。

So, I'm not gonna promise anything gassing but today I freaking love TC. I still have the independence and freedom and flexibility and support, and it's great. So, I mean, frankly, I'm happy.

所以，我不会对任何充满兴奋的事情作出承诺，但今天我真的很喜欢 TC。我仍然拥有独立性、自由度、灵活性和支持，这非常棒。所以，坦白地说，我很快乐。

I'm nervous because I'm being sold, but you know watch us that shakes. out I was hoping that's I mean I made a I made a salvo in between the a.o.l. and Verizon days of like hey any chance I could shake off and gadget or auto bug and they're like yeah we don't know who you would even talk to about that I'm like okay yeah like try to see like or even tech crunch I was like I'll take all of these brands like you know do you have a are they for sale and they're like we don't know I'm like who knows like nobody well it turns out the whole package was for sale and we're being sold and you'll love this Jason if we're roughly point five revenue that's our multiple is point five not 13 not 27 point five point five time yeah we're doing 8.4 billion run rate as of Q2 resume group now Yahoo and we're being sold for five billion that is the perfect private equity moment because they could split these things up and then sell them in packages and that's probably what will happen is Yahoo will go to somebody and you know the tech crunching gadget brands will go to somebody it's a smart move on their part.

我很紧张，因为我们正在被出售，但你能看到我们是那种颤抖的状态。我曾希望过在A.O.L.和Verizon日子之间做一个尝试，询问是否可能把Gadget或Auto Bug的产权放弃给我，但他们说不知道谁可以联系。我说：“好吧，试试看，Tech Crunch我都可以接受。” 但他们说他们不知道。结果整个项目都被出售了，我们正在被出售，Jason，你会喜欢的是，我们的市值是 0.5 倍收入。我们做了 84 亿的经营业绩，目前是 Q2 美国集团的 Yahoo，而我们售价是 50 亿。这是私募股权的绝佳时刻，因为他们可以将这些事情拆分成不同的包裹，然后进行出售。可能会发生的是，雅虎会被出售给某人，而Tech Crunch和Gadget品牌会被出售给其他人，这是他们的明智之举。

Are you getting a little sick of the cloud wars are we all it's time for you to cut your cloud bill and half get amazing customer support and save a hundred dollars right now it's time for you to grow your business on the node L-I-N-O-D-E if you're old school you know the node no matter what kind of business you're running whether it's a streaming app and you learning platform or anything using machine learning you need reliable infrastructure and hosting the node offers simple affordable and accessible cloud computing solutions why use the node instead of the competition well there's no block in you can change services as you please and pricing predictability they don't charge based on bandwidth usage this is going to save you up to 50% from other major providers and they've been around for 17 years so they know what they're doing they've been doing this forever we use the node for hosting this we can start off as Australia and it is absolutely fantastic we get 24 seven human support with no tears or handoffs that's why the node is the leading independent public cloud provider see if you can cut your cloud bill and half today and save a hundred dollars at let node dot com slash twist that's L-I-N-O-D-E dot com slash twist to create an account and receive that hundred dollar credit okay let's get back to this amazing episode.

你是否对云服务之争感到有些厌倦了？现在是时候削减你的云账单，并获得令人惊叹的客户支持，并立即节省100美元。现在是时候在L-I-N-O-D-E上发展你的业务了。如果你是老派的人，你会知道L-I-N-O-D-E。无论你经营什么样的业务，无论是流媒体应用、学习平台还是任何使用机器学习的东西，你都需要可靠的基础设施和主机托管。L-I-N-O-D-E提供简单、经济实惠、易于使用的云计算解决方案。为什么要使用L-I-N-O-D-E而不是竞争对手？首先，他们没有限制你的服务，你可以自由选择，其次他们的定价可预测，不会根据带宽使用量收费，这将节省你高达其他主要供应商的50%的费用。他们已经存在17年了，所以他们知道他们在做什么。我们使用L-I-N-O-D-E进行托管，从澳大利亚开始，效果非常好。我们得到24小时人工支持，没有泪水或疏忽，这就是为什么L-I-N-O-D-E是领先的独立公共云服务提供商的原因。请查看letnode.com/twist，看看你能否在今天将你的云账单削减一半，并节省100美元的费用，创建一个帐户，获取100美元的信用额。现在让我们回到这个惊人的剧集。

All right so back to Robinhood and you know this sort of what the potential of the company is now and then we'll back into doing go yeah actually I got a question for you about the season because one thing I've been really trying to figure out is what happens next because forget Delta let's just presume for the minute we're going more outside over time compared to last year sure on this is going to impact a lot of stuff like people spending time online could go down people's time trading could decrease and I'm trying to figure out how to think about Robinhood's growth in the back half of this year in light of the changing world because up to this point the results have been pretty much pandemic results have been looking at and they've been amazing.

好的，让我们回到Robinhood公司，你知道这家公司的潜力现在是什么，然后我们会回到Go做一些事情。实际上，我想问你一个关于这个季节的问题，因为有一件事情我一直在尝试弄清楚，那就是接下来会发生什么，因为我们不考虑 Delta 病毒，假设我们花费更多时间在户外比去年，这当然会对很多事情产生影响，如：人们在线上花费时间的减少，人们交易的时间也会减少。我正在尝试想出如何考虑 Robinhood 在今年下半年的增长问题，考虑到这个变化的世界，因为到目前为止，结果几乎是在考虑疫情的影响，而且这些结果是非常惊人的。

Yeah what's your level of optimism that Robinhood can keep up this sort of like not just Europe a year growth but sequential quarterly growth has been so impressive yeah so when you go public the profile of the company becomes extraordinary and during a crisis you know the profile becomes extraordinary what happens during a crisis like GME or in Ubers case when they had search pricing crises is people go what's Uber what's Robinhood right and so this is a paradoxical they now not saying venture capitalists or CEOs or shareholders hope to have a crisis of course you don't it actually turns out almost inevitably that the crisis grows the company and so the more the company is put under the microscope and ripped apart or savaged on Twitter by consumers or virtual signaling people or anti-capital social people or correctly by journalists or incorrectly by content creators whatever it is all that does is elevate the brand

你对罗宾汉能保持这样的增长进行了多少乐观程度，不仅是一年的增长，还有季度增长以及令人印象深刻的连续增长。当你上市后，公司的形象变得非常出色，在危机期间，公司的形象也变得非常出色。在GME危机或Uber遭遇搜索定价危机时会发生什么？人们会问什么是Uber，什么是罗宾汉。这是一种悖论。现在不是说风险投资家、首席执行官或股东希望出现危机，当然不希望。事实上，几乎是必然的，危机会推动公司发展。公司受到审查、被人毁谤、在Twitter上遭遇消费者或虚拟信号人士或反资本主义者的攻击，或被正确或错误地记者或内容创建者攻击，所有这些都只会提高品牌价值。

so I think the brand is now getting elevated people going oh how oh it's so easy to use and you get this what we call in the industry over the shoulder viability which is somebody is opening it and somebody sees it over their shoulder goes what's that oh and then they give them a little tour of the product which is how Snapchat and Uber and. DoorDash group is people would just hand their phone to somebody and show them the app

我认为这个品牌现在受到了高度的推崇，人们都会说：“哦，这个品牌非常好用，你可以得到行业所称的创新可视化效果。当有人在使用时，另一个人从他们的肩膀看过去，就会惊呼：‘这是什么？’然后他们会给他们一个小小的产品展示。这就是Snapchat、Uber和DoorDash等公司的做法，人们会把他们的手机递给别人，然后向他们展示如何使用这个应用程式。

so I think that that's going to be the big thing and then you think about adding Roths 401k and you know mortgages all kinds of devices could be added here which the IPO access is one so you don't need to have the same growth in users that you saw during that crazy game stop stonk moment which is like a moment in time I don't think we're gonna see again but you can take the existing base and just keep offering them services

我认为这将是一个大的事情，然后你考虑加入Roths 401k，还有抵押贷款等各种设备，这里面可以添加IPO访问功能，因此你不需要看到像那个疯狂的游戏商店停业那样的用户增长，那只是一个时间点，我不认为我们会再次看到这样的情况，但你可以利用现有基础，不断提供服务。

so if you're a young person who's never had kids and now you have a kid and you're like oh 529 I can put money tax free for my kid and it says click here 529 you're not gonna go find call your broker at Goldman or Alliance Bernstein or you know we're Morgan Stanley you're like I don't want to talk to anybody on the phone I just want to take on my app and have that product and so I think that that's going to be where you're gonna see massive growth 22 million members you open up you know some new product like Roth and now you get 1% of people use it now you've got two million people in that product so that to me is a really great bullish argument for Robinhood over the next couple of years

如果你是一个从没孩子的年轻人，现在有了孩子，想要在529账户中免税存钱，当你看到需要点击“529”这个选项时，你不会去联系高盛、联邦信托或摩根士丹利的经纪人，你只是想在应用程序上直接投资这个产品。因此，我认为这将是Robinhood未来几年内巨大增长的地方。他们有2200万会员，推出一款新的产品，如罗斯401K，现在只有1%的人使用，但它可以吸引200万人使用，这是我认为Robinhood强劲的理由。

but I'm very close to the next couple of quarters because they said in the their last S1 a filing that they're gonna see a revenue decline or at least trading decline in Q3 compared to Q2 interesting to me because you know yeah I've seen a lot of companies struggle with kind of leaving the pandemic and I wonder if that was part of what the reason Robinhood didn't have quite the debut it might have again it reprised itself much higher raised much capital the IPO is a success but I'm curious to some of the declines where investors not willing to buy into a company about to post a sequentially if you're day trading and you're buying it in quarter so that could be valid the same way buying DoorDash or you know pure play food delivery at this moment in the pandemic would seem like okay we're all gonna go back out to restaurants so maybe is there something other than DoorDash to buy is there something that is part of the reopening like I don't know taking a lift or Uber there or Airbnb is a better example I'm gonna go for it take a couple days off and go somewhere post-pandemic we now that seems like that's off so I think in all these the markets are so chaotic right now this mushroom of Delta plus like partial reopening it does feel like a little schizophrenic it feels exhausting it's what it feels like I mean I keep figuring out what's happening and then three days go by and everything's different again and I have to call everyone back and I'm like all right remember that stuff you told me last week what's going on now and like that's getting tiring

我离接下来的几个季度非常接近，因为他们在上一份S1文件中表示，他们将在Q3中看到收入下降，或者至少是相对于Q2的交易下降。这让我感到很有趣，因为你知道，我看到很多公司在离开这一流行病方面都很艰难，我想知道这是否是Robinhood没有像预期的那样成功的原因之一。它重上市价位更高并筹集了更多的资本，IPO是一个成功，但我对一些下降感到好奇，投资者是否不愿买入即将发布连续季度财报的公司，如果你是股票日交易者并且是在季度内购买，那么这可能是合理的，同样，购买DoorDash或者像Pure Play一样的食品配送公司在这个时期是合适的，看起来我们都会回到餐馆，所以也许除了DoorDash之外，还有其他的公司可以购买，例如，一些与复苏有关的公司，比如Uber、Lyft或者Airbnb都是更好的例子。我要加油，休息几天，等疫情结束了去旅游一番，现在似乎这只是一场空想，所以我认为在这些市场如此混乱的时候，对于Delta Plus、局部复苏的蘑菇之类的事情感觉有点精神分裂，令人疲惫。我一直在寻找事情的本质，但三天过去了，一切都变了，我不得不打电话给每个人，然后说“好的，记得你上周告诉我的东西，现在怎么样了？”这让人感到厌烦。

I would like to know for like a month what was happening without having to reframe everything it was so clear that people were going to be going on vacation and all of this pent-up energy and money was going to be spent and now you're right I you know I really didn't consider that with Delta maybe there's another three months of staying in so that would argue that DoorDash you know and Robin Hood would have another boost because maybe people would stay home and spend less money

我希望在一个月内了解这段时间内发生的情况，不必一直重复解释。很明显，人们要去度假，有很多被压抑的能量和钱将会被花费。现在你说得对，我没有考虑到Delta可能还会让人们呆在家里多三个月。这意味着DoorDash和Robin Hood可能会再次得到提升，因为人们可能会呆在家里花费更少的钱。

I think the ultimate trend here with all these companies is once you have a sticky product on people's phones I always ask like why would somebody stop using this product what's going to replace it what's going to displace it you know and you look at DoorDash or Uber or Airbnb or Robin Hood this like recent cohort I don't see anybody displacing them for a decade so I think you have a decade run when you get this kind of escape velocity in the same way Google and Facebook and Amazon got those decade long runs and then it's up to them to not screw it up in the second decade yeah

我认为这些公司的最终趋势是，在人们的手机上拥有一个吸引人的产品后，我总是会问，为什么有人会停止使用这个产品？将会有什么替代品？将会出现什么新的东西来取代它呢？看看 DoorDash、Uber、Airbnb 或 Robin Hood 这些近期的公司，我认为在未来十年内没有人能取代它们。所以，当你有这种逃逸速度的时候，就像 Google、Facebook 和 Amazon 在过去的十年里能够持续成功，然后取决于它们在第二个十年里是否能成功！

you know part of me is like well once these these Robin Hood users who are you know first-time investors as they love distress with their small accounts getting their feet wet buying shares and companies they love which is all good to me to be to be clear like if I told them you should move to fidelity or vanguard and I showed them those websites they would be like yo is this my grandfather's website are you kidding me like there's no confetti the button suck the UI is terrible I had to literally Google a fidelity feature the other day to figure out how to use a feature in fidelity I already use because I couldn't find it and Jason I get paid to click my mouse like I can find it no I had literally had a similar thing with the my Morgan Stanley account and I'm like why do I even have this yeah and it's the reason I have a more Stanley account is whenever there's a stock distribution from venture funds I'm in that just like the easiest lowest friction but I'm like oh now I got to move these over to Robin Hood and I'm like do I want to have this many shares in a Robin Hood account and you'll be Robin Hood star user though you be like you know there's a lot a lot of shares going back into there from Robin Hood but it does become I think really hard to go backwards with these paradigms like it would be like I'm trying to think of like a really what was the worst food ordering experience I think it's grub hub I don't know if you ever use I haven't used grub hub in college yeah it was terrible I mean it was just so arduous to just get to check out and then you use door dash or Uber Eats and it's you're just like here's your last order you're like yes go it would be like going from ride hailing on your phone back to calling a taxi company exactly that exactly what it would be like

你知道，我的一部分对于像那些首次投资者一样的“罗宾汉”用户的行为是好奇的。他们通过购买自己喜欢的公司的股票，将自己的小账户的余额浸入股市之中，这对于我来说是很好的。就我而言，如果我告诉他们应该转到富达证券或者万得，然后告诉他们那些网站，他们会觉得这是他们祖父的网站，你在开玩笑吗?没有彩带，按钮很烂，界面很糟糕，我前一天甚至不得不在富达证券里找了一个功能，因为我找不到它。Jason我会因为点击鼠标而获得报酬，所以我可以找到它，但我也遇到了同样的问题，我的摩根斯坦利账户就是这样。我在想，我为什么还要有这个账户？答案是，当风险投资基金有股票分配时，这是最简单，最低摩擦的方法。但是，我想把它们转移到罗宾汉账户，我在想，我是否想在罗宾汉账户里拥有这么多的股票？虽然你可能是罗宾汉的忠实用户，但你知道有很多股票从罗宾汉返回，但我认为这种范式的回到过去变得非常困难，就像从Grubhub订餐点餐体验最糟糕一样我不知道你是否有用过，我在大学时用过，恶心极了，付款过程是如此繁琐，然后你使用DoorDash或Uber Eats，你只需轻松一下，就会收到你的最后一个订单，对方会说，"好的，上午叫你的车"，正如你将从手机上的乘车应用程序回到打电话给出租车公司的时代一样。

okay now tell me ago was a 36% their IPO now it's a it's a smaller footprint it's a $5 billion market cap and they've been trading pretty pretty flat since they went out 31 times their 2020 revenue and then they had just under a hundred percent growth in q1 and then they had I think it's 45% midpoint growth in q2 based on their current estimates got it so it's a fast growing company tell me about dolingo you bullish on the company and I'm bullish on humans wanting to do better for themselves and I'm bullish on tools that helped them do that I don't know self improvement yeah

现在告诉我，过去的IPO时，他们筹得了36%的资金，现在他们的市值缩小了，为50亿美元。自从上市以来，股价一直持平，市值约为他们2020年营收的31倍。在第一季度，他们实现了近100%的增长，第二季度的预测中间值增长率为45%。所以这是一家快速增长的公司。谈谈多邻国，你对这家公司看好吗？对于人们希望改善自己的愿望，我会持乐观态度。我相信可以帮助他们实现这个愿望的工具。我认为这是自我提高。

I'm big on that I think the world the world so much better than we think like right now thanks to Google translate I can read anything on the internet which people forget how awesome that is now different but I think these digital abilities are gonna stay popular and people travel a lot you know and the world smaller and flights are generally cheaper and I think I think language learning's key and they have an amazing consumer brand and fact your earlier point are you gonna delete it for something else and I think the company now with more capital and it's probably ever had after this IPO has lots of room to double down on products so I'm bullish on on the movement I don't know what the stock is going to do tomorrow but I will say raised its range price above its range and then had a killer first day big success I mean the company put up a lot of points for edtech Jason and for startups out there looking to price their next round here is some good news you know for that argument with your VCs yeah

我非常重视这一点，我认为这个世界比我们想象的要好得多，现在多亏了谷歌翻译，我能读懂互联网上的任何东西，这是人们经常忘记的多么棒的事情。虽然有些不同，但我认为这些数字能力将会保持受欢迎的趋势，因为人们旅行的频率越来越高，世界变得更加紧密，而且机票通常更便宜。我认为语言学习是关键，而他们的消费品牌非常棒，正如你之前的观点所说，你会因为其他事情而删掉它吗？我认为，这家公司现在资本充足，可能是有史以来拥有足够多空间来加倍产品的，所以我对这一运动持乐观态度。我不知道明天股票会怎样，但我想说的是，他们已经将价格范围提高了，然后取得了非常成功的第一天。这家公司为教育技术和初创企业赢得了很多积分，对于正在寻求定价下一轮的风险投资者来说，这是一个好消息。

Edtech has been a really difficult category historically and investing because every edtech company saw their customer as school districts. And school districts, you know, they basically will change software you know like they paint. You know, like it's probably on the same cadence, like every five years they painted or something so it's generous. Yeah, okay, so maybe it's kind of like when they replace the windows like every 20. Yeah, exactly. It really does not change that often. And I'm like, you're gonna run out of money before they even sit for a demo. Like, you just gonna take you a year to get them to demo.

历史上，Edtech一直是一个非常困难的类别和投资领域，因为每个Edtech公司都把他们的客户视为学区。而学区，众所周知，他们基本上会像刷油漆一样更换软件，大约每五年更换一次，这是很宽松的说法。是的，好吧，也许就像他们每20年更换一次窗户一样吧。它确实并不经常更换。我觉得您可能会在他们进行演示之前就用完资金，您需要花费一年时间才能让他们开始演示。

All the success I'm seeing are people who are just like you know what let's go direct to parents let's go direct to the consumer and charge them a price that's around the price of Netflix. And when you charge somebody the price of Spotify to learn a language or a musician which we're investors in our tone base to music companies we invested in our stezy for dance we're invested. in calm for meditation you look at those companies and fit pod for CrossFit they're all consumer subscription and they're all you know around the price of Netflix and I think that this is gonna be like the new cable channels that's why we have I think we have seven investments in consumer subscription today

我看到所有成功的人都是像你一样，他们决定直接面向父母，直接面向消费者，以一个与 Netflix 价格相当的价格向他们收费。当你向某人收取与 Spotify 相当的费用来学习一门语言或音乐时，我们作为投资者也参与了语言类公司 "Tone Base"、舞蹈类公司 "Stezy"、冥想类公司 "Calm" 和 CrossFit 类公司 "Fit Pod"。这些公司都是消费者订阅型的，价格都与 Netflix 差不多，我认为这将成为新的有线电视频道。这就是为什么我们今天有七个消费者订阅型投资的原因。

many small business owners are busier than ever and because they're focused on managing and growing their businesses they can't spend the time they need you on recruiting and that's why LinkedIn jobs has made it easier to find and hire the best candidates for free we have had such a great experience finding two more producers for this week and startups researchers to store through all the deal flow again and it has been amazing it's a great place for you to look for a job and it's even better place for you to post a job so many talented people are sitting there waiting to hear about your career options for them and we use targeted screening questions to get our roles in front of the most qualified candidates with the experience skills and motivation we need then we use simple tools to filter and prioritize the top candidates for interviews and best of all LinkedIn's network now has over 740 million professionals all over the world LinkedIn jobs is gonna help you find the right person for your role they're so confident that you're going to love LinkedIn jobs they're letting you do that first job posting free every week nearly 40 million job seekers visit LinkedIn they're waiting to hear about their next career adventure and you just have to go to LinkedIn.com slash twist and post that job listing for free so that you can make their dreams come true and have that great employee join your team what are you waiting for you can get that free job posting right now LinkedIn.com slash twist terms and conditions apply

许多小企业主比以往任何时候都更忙碌，因为他们专注于管理和发展业务，所以他们无法花费足够的时间招聘，这就是为什么LinkedIn Jobs使寻找和雇佣最优秀的候选人变得更加容易，而且是免费的。我们在这一周找到了更多制片人和初创公司研究员，以便通过所有交易流量。这是非常令人惊喜的。这是您寻找工作的好地方，也是您发布工作的更好地方，因为很多有才华的人等待着了解您提供的职业选择机会。我们使用有针对性的筛选问题，将我们的职位展示给那些具有所需要的经验、技能和动力的最合格候选人，然后使用简单的工具来过滤和优先考虑顶尖人才的面试。更重要的是，LinkedIn的网络现在拥有全球超过7.4亿的专业人士，LinkedIn Jobs将帮助您找到适合您职位的合适人选。他们如此自信，您会喜欢LinkedIn Jobs，所以让您首先免费发布一份工作招聘。每周将近4000万求职者访问LinkedIn，他们正在等待获得关于他们下一个职业冒险的信息，您只需前往LinkedIn.com/twist免费发布职位列表，就可以实现他们的梦想并招募出色的员工加入您的团队。您还在等什么？立即获得免费工作发布。LinkedIn.com/twist，附带条款和条件。

because they're giving you something for free out of you know how it goes so it's interesting one Netflix being kind of a price anchor or spotifies a price anchor because I know the amount of like value I get from those two products and I subscribe to both and so to me if you ask me for the same amount of money I have an expectation of like what you're going to give me for it

因为它们向你免费提供一些东西，所以你知道它是怎么回事，这很有趣，Netflix和Spotify作为价格锚点之一很有趣，因为我知道从这两个产品中获得的价值，我都订阅了，所以对我来说，如果你要求我支付相同的金额，我有一个期望，即你将给我什么样的价值。

the other thing is it's funny to hear us be so bullish on consumer tech and subscriptions because if you go back like you know eight years ago VCs were saying don't tell the consumers they're higher churn as I'm selling to SMB's but where's your ACV is trash and here we are with Spotify doing great Netflix is still crushing it do a lingosho and this is a viable model consumers are really changing their behavior and I think that it's good to see that model at the respect now that it didn't get back when it was unfashionable and you got to attribute that to Spotify I think a Netflix saying if you pay us we'll give you something extraordinary without ads in it and I don't know about you but I am looking at my collection of streaming services and I've realized I am now getting pulled out of the advertising pool it's harder and harder for advertisers to reach me because I have the YouTube premium yeah you don't know if you pay for that or something yeah it was called YouTube red I don't know if they call it YouTube premium now wait a second they change your logo when you have it yeah pre they call it YouTube premium now it used to be red and so your logo changes to premium what's really interesting on premium I think it's 12 bucks a month you don't see ads which then has made my YouTube consumption go through the roof because I watch sopranos clips I watch sports clips there I watch all my sports shows instead of going to ESPN and trying to find Nick's coverage

另外一件有趣的事情是，我们现在对消费者技术和订阅模式的看法非常看重。但回顾八年前的风投，他们说不要告诉消费者，因为他们很容易流失，而要卖给中小型企业。但如今，Spotify和Netflix等平台很成功，特别是消费者的行为已经发生了很大的变化。现在这种订阅模式得到了越来越多的重视。我想这也要归功于Spotify和Netflix等企业，它们提供了优质的内容，没有广告，只需要你交钱。现在我想起我使用的流媒体服务越来越多，广告商很难接触到我，因为我已经使用了YouTube Premium服务。它的价格大约是12美元每月，但你不会看到广告。这种XaaS订阅模式可以帮助我更多地浏览各种视频，比如我看了很多《黑道家族》和体育节目。

I just typed the word Nixon and I can watch all my next coverage with no ads then I have Hulu Hulu has an option for no ads I elected for that for whatever it was for a bucks extra month I think NBA Lee pass for 40 bucks extra you can have no ads and what you see is the arena video yes and which is really great I love just for like watching what you want you're what you want and then Netflix and Disney and HBO Max have no ads so I think I'm kind of where do I see ads anymore I don't really I see them on social media I guess yeah I see them on Twitter I can't wait to pay Twitter to take my ads away but it's funny you bring this up because my spouse and I were watching Hulu the other the other I think last week and there was an ad play and I was like honey what is what is the differential in price between no ads and ads because I'm 99.99% sure if we should not be saving that money because I'm about to lose my mind if I see this ad one more time

我刚刚输入了“尼克松”这个词，现在我可以不看广告地观看所有相关报道，因为我使用了Hulu。Hulu有一个无广告选项，我选择了它并支付了额外的几块钱每月。我认为NBA Lee Pass每额外支付40美元也可以去掉广告，你所看到的只是球场的视频，这真的很棒；我喜欢看自己想看的东西，而且Netflix、迪士尼和HBO Max都没有广告，所以我觉得我已经不用再看广告了。我只在社交媒体上看到广告，我猜想我应该付费让Twitter不显示广告，这点很有趣，因为我和我的配偶上周看Hulu时，播放了一则广告，我问他无广告版和有广告版的价格差异是多少，因为我99.99%确定我们应该付钱去掉广告，否则我如果再看到这个广告一次，我会疯掉的。

and YouTube to be clear we're gonna get to I think Alphabet earnings in a little bit but like YouTube's ad load is excessive like if you ever use straight up YouTube like just no it's like there's multiple pre-rolls and then mid-rolls they have really they're going for it that they're going for it they did set let's just pivot to that sure it's really important and you do see the mid-rolls which are super annoying and then the pre-rolls constantly feels like every video has a pre-roll on it and I don't think you can opt out I remember when I was in the partner program back in the day you could opt out of having ads on your videos now if you're on YouTube and they store your video I don't think you're allowed to opt out of ads anymore which oh man Google just gets more and more evil I mean like the Google's need to increase its ad density of its products over time has made them a hollow out every experience they offered to the point of which I don't like to use their stuff in that ad block it's brutal I use an ad blocker and the only time I feel guilty about it is what I'm on like a journalist site and I will undo it on specific news sites where I want them to get the ad revenue but I don't I don't feel well

很清楚，我们稍后会谈到谷歌母公司字母公司的收益，但是YouTube的广告数量过多。如果你直接使用YouTube观看视频，你会发现有多个前置广告和中置广告，真的很烦人。他们在这个方面很有野心，他们想要让你接受大量的广告。我记得以前我参加合作伙伴计划时，可以选择不在自己的视频上放广告，但现在似乎不允许了，这让我想起谷歌越来越邪恶的感觉。他们为了增加广告量，逐渐使他们的产品体验变得空洞，到现在我甚至不想再使用他们的东西了，我会使用广告拦截器，这让我很内疚，只有在我在新闻网站上时我才会关闭它，因为我希望他们能获得一些广告收入，但我心里还是不太舒服。

I mean I don't feel bad for another place and the solid I'm an ad clicker anyway but looking at YouTube specifically grew 80% year over year seven billion dollars I mean pretty extraordinary the growth is crazy it's getting close to Netflix and revenue scale it is exactly the same right seven billion both this quarter and what's really fun is if you look at the the Google network revenues so kind of like the offsite Google stuff the ads they run historically a big chunk of of Google's ad business it's now just six hundred million dollars more in the last quarter than than YouTube so YouTube is about to kind of surpass this critical old piece of of Google revenue but the the YouTube gains were very impressive

我觉得我不需要为其他地方感到遗憾，因为我是一个广告点击者，而且特别是YouTube的增长一年增长了80%，达到了70亿美元，这是非常惊人的。这种增长是疯狂的，它已经接近Netflix的收入规模，其收入规模完全相同，都是这个季度的70亿美元。而且真正有趣的是，如果看一下Google网络的收入，即谷歌发布的广告以及历史上占谷歌广告业务大部分的离线谷歌内容，这个季度的收入比YouTube多了6亿美元，所以YouTube即将超过谷歌这个关键的旧收入部分。可以看出，YouTube的收益增长是非常令人印象深刻的。

but I'm curious what you made of the Google cloud changes because revenue to good losses decline I was pretty bullish about Google cloud and I don't know how you yeah I think that they hit a key milestone which was the cost of providing the service was less than the revenue the service brought in right I mean I think they're still investing in it but it's really hard to display Amazon web services because Amazon has just got this relentless march towards how little margin they can have now we don't have insight into each of the product lines at Amazon but the scale of that business is crazy but Google's cloud is super important for them to win as well because if Amazon just has the biggest cloud in the world and Azure and Google cloud fall too far behind yeah you can't you don't want to monopoly in public clouds but you know here's a question for you Jason because you talked more started founders than I do which is saying something

我很好奇你对谷歌云的变化有什么看法，因为收入下降得很厉害。我曾对谷歌云非常看好，但我不知道你是什么想法。我认为他们已经实现了一个关键的里程碑，就是提供服务的成本比服务带来的收入低。我认为他们仍在投资于此，但想要超越亚马逊网络服务是非常困难的，因为亚马逊不断地朝着利润最少的方向前进。我们不清楚亚马逊每个产品线的情况，但这个业务的规模是令人惊人的，谷歌云对他们来说也非常重要，因为如果亚马逊仅仅是拥有世界上最大的云，而Azure和谷歌云落后太多，那么你不想看到云领域的垄断。但是，我想问你一个问题，因为你比我更经常与创始人交谈。

I'm hearing tweets and I'm carrying some complaints about AWS pricing from startups and maybe even some growth stage founders. People are just a little bit dismayed at how much AWS can wind up costing them. Is that gonna help Azure and Google cloud or is that just complaints and it's not gonna change much?

我听到了关于AWS价格的一些投诉，来自一些创业公司和可能是一些成长阶段的创始人。人们对AWS的成本感到有些沮丧。这会帮助Azure和Google云吗？还是只是一些抱怨，并不会带来太大的改变？

I think this is sort of like you know ride sharing drivers complaining about getting paid where it's like it's never gonna be enough. Everybody always wants to raise so even when it's a double the minimum wage in the country or it's 15 or it's 25 or they give minimums people are always gonna ask for more. And in this case, they're always gonna ask for a smaller cloud bill.

我认为这有点像拼车司机抱怨报酬不够，即使是国家的最低工资的两倍、15美元或25美元，或是给予最低标准，人们总是想要更多。在这种情况下，人们总是要求更小的云服务账单。

They throw you know they're gonna be like this is too much. And you know if that if your startup grows but they're not this generation is not comparing their cloud computing costs to buying servers and racking them.

他们会说太过分了，你知道他们会这样。如果你的创业公司发展壮大了，但这一代人不会将他们的云计算成本与购买服务器和堆放它们进行比较。

Yeah and just 20 years ago you know there was a line item when you were raising your three million-dollar series a three million dollars series a five hundred thousand in servers and co-location facilities and I did Mahalo we racked servers then at a certain point we're like the cloud you know in the cloud we had so much traffic that the cloud charged based on the amount of traffic you used and when you have your own fiber line you don't get charged for usage and so all of those I kind of things that are now competing with each other are gonna ultimately drive this down.

20年前，在你们筹集300万美元系列资金的时候，会有一条项目用于购置服务器和设施，我们当时使用了Mahalo架设服务器。随着业务增长，我们开始使用云服务，云服务收费基于使用的流量，而拥有自己的光纤线路则不会收取使用费。现在各种服务相互竞争，最终将会推动这些收费降低。

So it's I think it's much to do about nothing and it actually gives Azure and Google Cloud you know IBM and other people's clouds the ability to compete. Yeah it's a great entry there I mean it's the other thing that's going to be interesting is I don't know if you know about serverless but there's this concept of like you can build these little objects that run on the internet and when somebody goes to hit a website it fires it up runs it they run the execution and then it shuts itself back down yeah and so this can cut down for some tasks and computing 90% so with software, you're gonna keep seeing the software waste down the utilization on the network which then kind of games the cloud and the same thing with storage and other things getting cheaper.

我认为这没有什么大不了的，实际上它为Azure、Google Cloud、IBM和其他云服务提供商提供了竞争的能力。是的，这是一个很好的进入点，还有一件有趣的事情就是，我不知道你是否了解无服务器，这是一种概念，即你可以构建这些在互联网上运行的小对象，当有人访问一个网站时，它就会启动运行，执行完成后自动关闭，在某些计算任务中，它可以减少90%的计算量，因此，随着软件的不断优化，网络的利用率将不断提高，云和存储等其他领域的成本也将不断降低。

So, well, the growth of usage of these public classes crazy so Google Cloud grew I think 54% year-over-year in Q2 Azure was 51% so very very close there I think AWS was I couldn't find the number I was just looking for it I think was 37% but I mean think about how much total spend we're talking about going to the public cloud just over the last 12 months in Q2 I mean it's billions and billions of dollars. And you know thank you VCs for financing all the startups that are currently living off of that because it's it's going great for the majors it definitely has changed everything in terms of the funding of startups you literally took out 20% 30% of the cost and the time and the time would have burned months of setup and runway.

那么，这些公共课程的使用增长非常惊人，因此我认为谷歌云在第二季度同比增长了54％，Azure为51％，非常接近。我找不到AWS的数字，但请想象一下，仅在过去12个月的第二季度，我们谈论的总支出是多少资金流入公共云，这是数十亿美元。非常感谢风险投资公司为所有目前依靠这些赚钱的初创企业提供资金，因为对于主要企业来说，一切都很顺利。它确实改变了初创企业的资金筹集，您实际上省去了20％到30％的费用，以及成百上千个月的设置和舞台走廊。

So really you know you could have as much as a third or more of your startups cost being the setting up of your office space and your cloud. You start looking at that you're like wow you just put that towards developers or you can fund many more projects you know a 250k check with a two-developer startup can last them for two years.

实际上，你可能需要将三分之一或更多的初创企业成本用于设置办公空间和云。你会惊讶地发现，你刚刚花费的这笔钱可以用来支持开发人员，或者资助更多的项目。拿250K美元的支票来支持一个有两个开发人员的初创企业，他们可以用这笔钱维持两年。

You know they so this just came up I was talking to a startup actually here in Providence there are some proud reports in my new adopted more. Yeah actually that's what the founder told me he's like even in my the floor of the building, we have a little office and there are two more that are eventually back I was like okay good news but I asked him how long his two million dollar of seed ground was gonna get it's coming like how much runway is this and he didn't give me an answer in months he said 20 to 25 product cycles and I was like that's the coolest metric I've ever heard someone probably two weeks brand or something three weeks brand yeah who knows but I mean like that to me shows that they're not thinking about just running out of money they're thinking about where they're gonna get to in terms of what they're building and if I was an investor and I'm not I think that would jazz me because it seems like playing offense versus defense it is pretty amazing.

你知道吗，我正和一个新创公司在普罗维登斯交谈，我在我的新家庭中感到非常自豪。是的，事实上创始人告诉我，即使在我们楼房的地板上，我们也有一个小办公室，以后还有两个，我问他他的200万种子轮资金能够支撑多长时间，他没有给我一个月数的答案，他说可能需要20到25个产品周期。我认为这是我听过的最棒的指标，我甚至说，这比几周或几个月更重要，因为这意味着他们不仅考虑资金的问题，还考虑他们正在构建的方向。如果我是投资者（实际上我不是），我认为这将让我很兴奋，因为这似乎是在进攻而不是防守。这真是太棒了！

When the clock ticking down is not making your decision-making delighting customers is and it really it is why when we syndicate a deal to the syndicate dot com which was like our previously was on angelus and I would do it there. Yeah we specifically say we we will only syndicate you if you have a minimum of 12 months of runway but we're looking more for 18 to 12 24 months and the reason we do that is we tell them like we want you head down thinking about the customer for at least a year hopefully 18 months so you don't have to pop your head back up and raise money.

当时间紧迫不再是你下决策的因素时，让顾客满意才是真正重要的。这就是为什么当我们在syndicate.com上进行交易时，我们会说只有在您有至少12个月的发展空间时才会进行交易，但我们更希望看到18到24个月的发展空间。我们这样做的原因是我们希望他们至少一年甚至18个月专注于想顾客的事情，这样他们就不必为筹集资金而分心。

Now of course in this market I was gonna say we we literally had to change our accelerator schedule I'll give you some numbers on.

当然，在这个市场上，我要说我们确实不得不改变我们的加速器计划，我会给你一些数字。 意思是说，在当前市场情况下，由于形势紧迫，他们被迫更改了加速器计划，并会提供一些相关的数字信息。

this sure we have over 300 I've invested in 300 companies in less decade I'm not sure how many of them are exactly active but let's say two out of three so maybe two 25 are still affect you know in effect we have 65 companies currently raising money we're in the process of closing out of the 225 out of the 225 one and three basically and there were people who are closing before that and people who are thinking about raising money but having that many in process I've never seen and it has broken our internal systems because when a fundraising happens you go to your existing investor you have to get them to sign off on it read the documents agree and then decide do they want to take their pro rata it with 65 that means every business day 20 business days a month I've got to be making 304 decisions a day and going over 304 sets of documents the lawyers in our industry are now saying like we need four days to turn around documents we need five days to turn around documents used to be like we turn around documents in four two days you know no problems give us two days maybe three and now it's like give us a week we got just wait I've never seen this level of activity yeah you think founders are doing well with ample secondary in the markets look at their lawyers because the lawyers are doing fantastically right now because everyone needs them right about now at the same time which means they have enormous leverage great place to be well I mean and attorneys are not getting a summer break and a lot of VCs are not getting a summer break I'm supposed to be going on vacation and it's like I'm scared to death to go on vacation I'm just like what's going to happen with all these deals and where basically we came up with a term that we step my new term of art the founders is standing pat which is the term in draw poker you know when you say oh I want two cards I'll take three I'll take two when you do draw poker like the old cowboy poker not hold them you would say I'll take two cards you give two cards to give you two new cards standing pad is I don't need any new cards we're just like we're standing pat we're good we're not adding to our position we're not you know gonna leave this round we're just gonna stand pat and I've had to tell companies that we may have actually participated in or led like we're gonna stand pat because we just can't get to this deal

在过去的十年里，我已经投资了300多家公司，我不确定有多少家公司还在运营，但我们可以说三分之二中有两家仍然在运营。目前，我们有65家公司正在筹集资金，其中225家公司中的一半已经完成了融资。这么多公司需要进行融资，我们内部的系统已经崩溃了。每当一次融资发生时，我们必须联系现有的投资者，让他们审阅文件并决定是否要跟进，对于65家公司而言，这意味着每个工作日要处理304个决策，并阅读304份文件。我们行业的律师现在已经说出了这样的话，我们需要4天或5天的时间才能处理文件。我从来没有见过这种规模的活动，这也让创始人们变得很苦恼，他们需要律师来辅助。我的新术语是“站着不动”，这是一种绘画术语，意味着不需要再增加新的投资额。我们需要明智地选择进行投资，有些公司需要放弃，我们需要快速做出决定。

are you concerned about your portfolios performance in the near future well JP Morgan Blackrock and others are projecting public equity returns I'm just three to five percent over the next five years analyst that bank of America urge investors to consider real assets as part of an inflation strategy so where are the major players putting their money endowments for Yale Harvard and other top asset managers are looking into alternative assets according to master works research endowments over one billion are investing 55% more in alternatives on average if you're looking for a very interesting asset class that's uncorrelated with the stock market it's blue chip art masterworks.io sells shares in multi-million dollar paintings by artists like Banksy Picasso and Warhol according to master works contemporary art has appreciated 14% annually from 1995 to 2020 outperforming other real assets like real estate and gold I just had the founder Scott Lynn on the program again episode 12 32 4 and alternative assets roundtable and he shared some great insights around inflation appreciation more gold listen to episode 12 32 masterworks.io is a fantastic idea and they're executing at a super high level I think it's really genius so sign up today at masterworks.io and if you use the code twist you'll skip their 30,000 person wait list see important information at masterworks.io slash disclaimer

你是否担心你的投资组合在不久的将来的表现？JP Morgan、Blackrock和其他机构预计公开股权回报率在未来五年内仅为3%至5%。美国银行分析师呼吁投资者考虑作为通胀策略的实际资产。那么主要玩家将他们的资金投向何处？耶鲁、哈佛等顶级资产管理公司的捐赠基金正在寻找替代资产。根据Masterworks Research的数据显示，超过10亿美元的捐赠基金平均投资55%以上的替代资产。如果你正在寻找一种与股票市场无关的非常有趣的资产类别，那就是蓝筹股艺术品。Masterworks.io出售由像班克西、毕加索和沃霍尔等艺术家创作的千万美元级别的画作的股票。根据Masterworks Research的数据，当代艺术品的年复合增长率从1995年到2020年达到了14%，表现优于房地产和黄金等其他实际资产。在这个节目的第1232期, 创始人Scott Lynn参加了另类资产圆桌会议，并分享了一些有关通货膨胀和涨价的有关见解。Masterworks.io是一个非常不错的主意，他们正在以超高的水平推行。立即在masterworks.io注册，如果您使用优惠代码twist，您将跳过他们的等待列表中的30,000人。请参阅masterworks.io/disclaimer以获取重要信息。

so tell me a little bit about where it things are most busy so I'm curious I know that the kind of series A plus things to tiger is super active is the precedence stage just as busy as glider stages I would say yes but I would say it's close

告诉我一些最繁忙的地方的情况，我很好奇。我知道A+轮的事情对于Tiger来说非常活跃，那么Precedence阶段是否像Glider阶段一样繁忙呢？我想说是的，但是我认为它们非常接近。

So what's happened is anybody who's got a series B marketplace or SaaS companies good question anybody who's a marketplace SaaS company or consumer subscription that's growing if you're a growing company you're going to get a valuation that is double what it was three or four years ago so what would have been okay you're doing ten million dollars we'll give you five seven times that so we'll do a $70 million valuation and 80 million dollars valuation now all of a sudden it's 10 to 20 so you got ten million dollars in revenue you were going out for your series B you know between a hundred and two hundred million would be the valuation and they'll be people lining up to put in that 20 million dollar check and so what I've told them is you know if you were if you're planning on raising money at any time in the next 18 months do it now do it now do it now yeah because it's like there's a party people are popping bottles if you want champagne you know like you know like you know because someone will drop you off yeah somebody's gonna top you off like you should go get that get that champagne right now and then you don't deploy it slowly

所以现在发生的情况是，任何拥有系列B市场或SaaS公司的人，或是消费者订阅服务正在增长的公司，如果你是一个正在增长的公司，你的估值会比三四年前翻倍。所以以前是10百万美元的估值，现在就是70-80百万美元。如果你有10百万美元的收入，就可以去进行B轮融资，估值在1-2亿美元之间，会有人排队投入2000万美元的资金。 所以我告诉他们，如果你打算在未来18个月内筹集资金，现在就去做吧。因为现在正是狂欢时刻，人们正在开香槟庆祝，如果你也想要一份香槟，现在就应该去借口一杯，因为很快就会没有了。你应该尽快抓住这个机会，不要慢慢地使用资金。

And then what's happening at the earlier stages which is really weird that I've never seen is not quite this craziness at the at the series B level that was well document with tiger and other people participating now what's happening is somebody will close a one million dollar round you know at for 10% of that company and you know maybe they would have previously been a six seven or eight million dollar company but you know in that zone it doesn't really matter all that much because the outcomes are so much bigger so okay if you're an early stage investor you kind of get comfortable with a 12 million dollar valuation where it might have been six previously the round fills up people find out the round is filled up and then another two million dollars shows up and says oh you know this person or that person who's notables in the round we want to do your series say it's like we haven't gotten the money for half this round in the wires haven't hit yet we can't get the next one exactly and so what I say to folks is close that round give everybody a hard date your money gets in Friday if you don't get your money in Friday we've now open to note at 20 and I've had a dozen companies do this where they closed the 12 million dollar round literally the next week they open a note for 20 million and then they say to any other investor we close that round we were massively over subscribed we have a 20 million dollar cap note that we're gonna keep open for the next year for value added investors we consider you one of those if you want to be in that round we're happy to have you but or we can wait until we formally start the round and then those are starting to fill up wow so there's the amount of money being slung around in the startup world really does to me kind of mirror the amount of money we're talking about with these public company earnings because the numbers are getting to be almost out of my my ability to kind of reckon with them yes you know Microsoft and Apple both north of two trillion dollars I mean at some point I I begin to lose it like I think around a hundred billion I begin to kind of like lose the my feet on the ground and flow away and these valuations are very similar because I understand the math you're talking about you say well if it was six and now it's 12 post okay exits are bigger and it's it's pretty seed money and you know okay it totally but like when I was learning about DC you know 10 12 13 years ago you know people were talking about how they had to have price control and all this stuff and I feel like everything that I was taught is now just gone like I learned about the stock market when X on was the biggest company in the world that's a freaking different era like it's it's an entirely brave new world and I'm it's fun but my gosh

之后发生了一些奇怪的事情，我以前从未见过。在B轮阶段，并不像现在这样疯狂。与虎基金等人参与的B轮资金已经充足的公司现在只会只筹集到100万美元，拥有10%的股份。也许此公司之前价值6-8百万美元，但是在这个阶段，这些都不那么重要，因为收益可能很大。如果你是一个早期投资者，在12百万美元的估值上接受可能比之前的6百万美元更舒服。资金轮已满，人们发现其他2百万美元的投资者也要加入，但是他们正在尝试得到50%的资金才能继续下一轮募资。我会建议估值12百万美元的轮子关闭，然后给所有人一个最终期限，如果钱周五没能到账，我们会以20百万的值做一个债券。这种方法已经被数百家公司采用，这些公司关闭了价值12百万美元的项目，然后在下周就会开放一个20百万的债券项目，然后邀请其他投资者加入。 同样的，创业公司中的资金金额超出了很多人的认知，这与公共公司的盈利金额非常相似。这些数值越来越大，超出了我的认知和理解能力，比如微软和苹果的市值都超过了2万亿美元。尽管我不明白，但我相信这些估值是合理的，因为公众市场的规则和私募市场不同。

Well I mean if you think about the multiples the multiples are compressed even as big as these two trillion three trillion dollar companies are their multiple is compressed because people assume it can't grow like a startup but Amazon or let's say YouTube the better example 80% year of your growth that's kind of startup level growth you know like later state startup growth early stage you're trying to triple quadruple your revenue year over year from a million to three or three to nine once you get up to a hundred million you're trying to get to 150 when you're at 500 million you're trying to grow to you know seven fifty eight hundred you may not double year over year I mean you can but it's not easy and you look at Amazon 113 billion in revenue for the quarter just it's absolutely crazy but Jason you forgot the punch line to that particular joke what happened this morning to Amazon stock went down it went down now now now tell the people why because this is the funnest part of the show well I mean I they missed their revenue number by one billion I think it was a little bit more than that but essentially there was one 15 was the expectation they hit one 13 yeah I think from yeah so I mean but just looking at the run rate of four hundred forty three billion is insane and then you just compare that to you know GDP they would be the twenty seven in the world that's pretty extraordinary they would be right by Austria and Iran yeah so here's why I think Amazon took a bit of hit if you look at their Q2 or into port and you spend a lot of time going past all the bullet points they put our top about new Kindle features they announced that you're not going to use I love that I don't know why they still do that like why do they do that it's like really you you even produce the kindle once last time I even saw a candle okay I look well let's not erase ebooks here I own two candles and I'm a big fan but like I used to breed you know to be clear if you go to the financial guidance section of the Amazon Q2 report you'll see that for Q3 of this year compared to last year they're expecting net sales to grow between ten and sixteen percent so Amazon has kind of like reached the end of its pandemic growth surge and I think investors added at a higher expectations and critically it was priced like it was going to grow more quickly and so it lost some of that growth premium Amazon still had a great quarter like if I ever do one hundred and thirteen billion a quarter please put my head and and a center my hand but like compared to expectations and how they were valued it was a bit of a miss and so I friends who struggle with like great quarter and it's a miss and it's it's technical but like it it was a surprise I think to a lot of folks they saw the headline number and then what happened to stock so yeah there's also going to be this you know changing of the guard Jeff is no longer in charge so I think that makes some people nervous and there's got to be some profit taking going on I mean if he if this was like such a pandemic run up and everybody was getting their you know you know six months worth of remember that last year oh yeah six months on your shelves and like fighting for you know wipes and we were wiping our food down and wearing gloves and masks to unpack our cereal I was one level below that whenever the level of panic that was I was one step down but not not too far different I mean I literally remember a month of wiping my groceries down and like wearing my wife is like don't bring that into the house I'm like the tomato soup okay I can talk I can talk I can talk this though so we had we had a friend in town from college and she was in town for like three months we did dinners every week outside at her house it was lovely actually and she said that her family early in the pandemic were they would order food in you know and then they would re microwave it to kill off whatever and they were actually microwaving their salads before they ate them and I was like there is the peak the peak I've covered the sun I guess yeah I don't think your salad has that don't you want me warm salad Jason does lots of limp lettuce I like I'll tell you the free say salad with the warm egg and the lardon on it yes that's fine it's but that's wilted it's not it's not microwaves it's not yeah I don't think anybody microwave any of this well here's the quote from the CFO our customers are safe and healthy and ordering from us and we know there'll be more vacations or be more mobility there'll be things that probably people shied away from last year and that's all good but it tends to lead them to do other things besides shop so we're adjusting our run rates in the period that we see that I do think shopping was like I think a pastime as was wagering on sports or wagering on stonks or wagering on crypto and that is all coming apart what's your take on China banning Bitcoin and then some of these you know new regulations coming out I think

我是这样想的，如果你考虑到倍数，即使是这两个价值两万三千亿美元的公司，它们的倍数也被压缩了，因为人们认为它们无法像初创公司那样增长，但亚马逊或者说YouTube是更好的例子，80%的年增长率就像初创公司的增长一样，早期阶段你试图让收入年年增长一倍或三倍，从一百万到三百万，或者从三百万到九百万，当你达到一亿时，你试图增长到一百五十亿，当你达到五亿时，你试图增长到七亿五千八百万甚至八亿，你可能不会每年翻倍，可能也能，但不容易，比较一下亚马逊，这个季度1130亿的收入，简直太疯狂了，但是杰森，你忘了分享这个笑话的关键，今天早晨亚马逊股价下跌了，它下跌了，现在告诉大家为什么，这是节目中最有趣的部分，我觉得他们的收入数字比预计少了10亿，我觉得是多一点，但实际上他们预计会达到115亿，而实际上只有113亿，就是这样，但是考虑到他们的增长速度，四百四十三亿真的是疯狂的，相比之下，它们的收入已经超过了世界第二十七位的国家，这相当不凡，就在奥地利和伊朗旁边，这是我为什么认为亚马逊有点受到打击的原因，如果你看看他们的第二季度或第三季度报告，你会看到他们预计今年第三季度的净销售额将增长10%到16%，亚马逊的疫情增长高峰已经到了尽头，我认为投资者期望太高了，而且它被定价为将会更快增长的公司失去了一些增长优势，亚马逊仍然有一个伟大的季度，如果我有一百亿美元的季度收入，请把我的头放在我的手上，但是与预期和它们的估值相比，它有点失误，所以我有些为难，很技术性，但是它出乎了很多人的意料，他们看到了头条新闻，然后股市发生了什么，所以是的，还会有权力的交替，杰夫不再掌权，我想这让一些人感到紧张，并且有一些盈利会发生，但是如果他如果它是世界第二十七大经济体，则可能是对的，我认为购物就像赌博一样，以前是一种消遣，现在正在崩溃，你对中国禁止比特币和一些新的监管政策有什么看法？

========== I think I think was it by Nance is now deprecating their service in Europe to a certain extent well are you watching all this and the and the news tightening and what are your thoughts yeah so tether yeah well look look let's do this in chunks so first of all by Nance it turns out if you get really really big and you're not actually following regulatory guidelines around the world eventually catches up with you it's like technical debt for a financial company it's called regulatory debt and it matters because people eventually start doing mean things back to you so by Nance cleaning up its act actually I like I hope they figure this out I've talked to CEO I I'm generally bullish on crypto exchange see see see see see see great I mean I've talked to him once or twice but I liked him so I hope it goes well selling to rip your products in Europe that's a lot of work you gotta have a big compliance team not a surprise China holy crap Jason yeah you're lying at clock to 2018 late 17 early 18

我认为我认为Nance现在在欧洲部分地区降低他们的服务，你正在观察所有这些新闻的收紧，你有什么想法？关于Tether，让我们分块来看。首先，如果你变得非常非常庞大，并且实际上没有遵循全球监管准则，那么最终会被追究责任，这就像金融公司的技术债务，被称为监管债务，它很重要，因为人们最终会对你做出一些不好的举动。Nance整顿行动其实我很喜欢，我曾与CEO交谈过，我对加密货币交易所持乐观态度。贩卖你的产品在欧洲需要大量的工作，你必须拥有一个强大的遵从团队。至于中国，天啊，Jason，你回到了2018年晚期或2017年初。

Chinese venture capital system blowing up everyone's talking about how with 9.9.6 is going to like take over the US tech world the US people are are you know the technical companies are lazy panic these these were just trying to get on the next plane to China to pour money into the space and then overnight China decided that a huge swap the venture back companies are now going to go non-profit can't list or raise capital it's it's like a thundercloth that we that we almost missed because we're in North America versus China but like it was an enormous regulatory turn after they went after D.D. and Tencent Music and so forth.

中国的风险投资系统引起了全球瞩目。人们一度认为以 996 为代表的中国科技公司将接管美国科技行业，美国人纷纷感到惊慌失措，试图抢着搭乘前往中国并向这些公司注资的飞机。但突然间，中国政府决定大规模转型，风投公司将不再盈利，不能上市或募资。这一政策变化就像一张雷霆巨幕，我们在北美可能错过了，但它在追击滴滴出行、腾讯音乐等公司之后，带来了重大的监管改变。

So to me there has been an enormous tenor shift in the Chinese market that should a lot of time totally freaking stupid slow VC investment in the country. I gotta think VC investing from the West in China is over. I would think if I'm an LP and a fund comes to me and says hey we got a China strategy I would look at them and go okay Jack Mahatat China strategy to Tencent had a China strategy all these education companies had a strategy and I'm sure the Bitcoin miners had a strategy how's that strategy working out for them because whatever your strategy is as a VC it's dependent on entrepreneurs to execute on the ground.

在我看来，中国市场发生了巨大的变革，这导致了很长一段时间国内VC的投资变得非常愚蠢和缓慢。我认为来自西方的VC在中国的投资结束了。如果一个基金向我展示了他们的中国战略，我会问他们，杰克·马的中国战略、腾讯的中国战略以及所有这些教育公司和比特币矿工的策略如何运作，因为作为VC，你的策略取决于企业家在现场的执行能力。

Yep those entrepreneurs are getting sent to re-education camps if you know if they can disappear Jack Mahatat for several weeks kill off the entire PO and then make D.D. Rubetz apps three days after when public in the US exchange if I remember my timelines correctly. I don't care about your China strategy there's one China strategy and it comes from the top and that's not you so like in terms of risk it's terrifying.

是的，那些创业者如果被送到再教育营会很危险。你知道如果他们能让马化腾消失数周，抹杀整个PO，然后在三天后就让D.D. Rubetz的应用在美国上市，如果我记得时间表没错的话。我不关心你们的中国战略。中国的战略来自高层，不是你们，所以在风险方面，这真的很可怕。

Yeah and if you have this would if you have risk capital yeah you're going to look at what is the spectrum of risk to return and where can I put that money to work if it felt like you know China was trending towards transparency and engagement great.

如果你有风险投资，你会关注风险和回报的范围，然后考虑在哪里将这笔钱投放，如果你觉得中国正在朝着透明化和参与度的方向发展，那就太好了。

I think people made the right bet in twenty you know ten yes actually you know who the guy was who actually did this more than anybody was the Pat McGovern from IDG which I will know he opened IDG in China before anybody he was the OG in China he created all these publications there and then he was like wait a second I could create an adventure firm in China and that's how he made all his money people don't know this but he rest in peace Pat McGovern came to the first tech crunch fifty slash disrupt with Mike and our partners and sat in the first row in like a four thousand dollars suit and Mike and I were like holy shit this Pat McGovern and we're like how did he get in here yeah and they're like he bought a ticket you bought a VIP ticket he's gonna be at the party tonight oh my god so I walk over he's like I'm like oh Mr. McGovern is great to see you know that thanks for coming and he's like I follow everything you do Jason that's not creepy at all that's okay Pat McGovern and it wound up because people don't remember he owned the demo conference yeah and Mike and I fifteen years ago were like we're gonna kill the demo conference that charges twenty grand yeah we're gonna sink that thing and then what does this guy do he's so gangster he buys a VIP ticket it comes to the event and sits in the first row yeah how's that for some some reconnoitering of the of the opposition by the way the tech one's fifty which is the one that being sponsored all those bars and lobby was that the four year fifty I think that was forty.

我觉得人们在2010年做出了正确的赌注。实际上，你知道谁比任何人都更成功地做到了这一点，那就是来自IDG的Pat McGovern。在任何人之前，他就在中国开设了IDG，他是中国的OG，他创建了所有这些出版物，然后他想到了一个想法：在中国创建一个冒险公司。这就是他赚到所有钱的方式。人们不知道，但愿Pat McGovern安息，他与Mike和我们的合作伙伴一起来到了第一次TechCrunch50 / Disrupt，并在第一排坐着，穿着一件价值4000美元的衣服。Mike和我都惊呆了，认为"这就是Pat McGovern ，他怎么会在这里？他买了一张VIP票，今晚也会参加派对。"于是，我走过去，他说"Jason，我一直关注着你的一切，"真是有点吓人，但也无妨。人们可能不记得，十五年前，他拥有Demo会议，而Mike和我则打算摧毁那场收费二万美元的Demo会议。但这个人真是太牛了，他买了一张VIP门票来参加活动，并坐在第一排。顺便说一句，TechCrunch50是那个由所有酒吧和休息室赞助的科技活动，四年之后是50周年纪念。

Bing Bing Bing that's the time that you guys got me so drunk that I put some side of your venue and then I also threw up in my badge and so when I woke up the next morning in Palo Alto I was supposed to be to be clear my badge knelt down I couldn't figure out why and I was like eighteen or something so oh my God that was this years well you know that was when San Francisco in the industry I think it was a little more fun and you know less content it was less contancorice between all the parties involved and the scale was still tiny right like Facebook didn't exist or if it did yeah Facebook small yeah and the things that did exist were ten million users there wasn't this discussion we're having today about these things are so big should they be that big.

那是你们把我灌醉了，我把你们演出场地旁的一侧弄脏了，然后我还在我的徽章上呕吐了。第二天早上我在Palo Alto醒来时，我的徽章已经弄脏了，我一开始还弄不清楚为什么。我当时大概18岁左右，天啊，那是几年前的事情了。你知道，当时的旧金山和整个产业都更有趣一些，而且派对之间的互动没那么尖锐。而且规模还相对较小，像Facebook还不存在，或者如果存在，规模也很小。存在的东西只有一千万用户，甚至不会像我们今天所讨论的那样谈到这些事情有多大，它们应该如此大吗？

Okay so China tightening the news game over wearing charge and Bitcoin happened right before that so what is explain to me your thoughts on Bitcoin getting banned in China and the matter is getting kicked out before they do this crackdown on IPOs because this they don't do anything without a plan yeah China they have a hundred year plans 200 year plans that they're kind of like Putin in that regard so what is the plan here if you had to guess so the plan is to eventually roll out a digital you on as they're currently doing and why why does that matter why do we care why not use a crypto well it's all about the opposite of decentralization it's all about centralization if you have a digital currency that the government controls you can set effectively negative. interest rates against it you can have people's money go away they don't spend it so if you want to induce consumer spending you don't send everyone a check if we do in the US and hopes that they'll spend it on something you just tell them that money's gonna go away they don't use it and so suddenly the government has much much more control over the local economy now if you're going to have this digitally long people have to use it and if there's an alternative say I don't know cryptocurrency like Bitcoin maybe they have a way out and you can't have that.

所以，在中国加紧监管新闻游戏之前，比特币的禁令已经出现了，你对这种情况下比特币被禁止在中国的想法是什么，由于他们在对IPO进行打击之前，这种事情发生了，因为他们没有计划不会做任何事情。是的，中国有百年计划、200年计划，他们在这方面有普京的风范，那么，如果你必须猜测计划是什么，那么计划是最终推出数字人民币，就像他们现在正在做的那样，为什么呢？为什么我们要关心它，为什么不使用加密货币呢？这一切都与去中心化正好相反，都是关于中心化的。如果你有一种数字货币，政府可以控制它，你可以对其设置负利率，你可以让人们的钱消失，如果你想引导消费支出，你不会像美国那样给每个人一张支票，希望他们会把它花在什么上，你只告诉他们这笔钱会消失，他们不使用，突然之间，政府对当地经济的控制就会更加强大。如果你要用数字货币，人们就必须使用它，如果有一种替代品，比如比特币，也许他们可以有一种途径，这是不可行的。

And there has been constant saber-addling about the banning of Bitcoin in China for so long and the mining they're off that everyone in the crypto community just viewed any China news as fun to ignore it yeah it's fear and thirty-da you guys are haters have fun being poor poor we're gonna run siops on your replies because you Alex and Jason criticized cryptocurrency in some mild way yeah crypto is fine it doesn't bother me at all but you know and then finally after several minor things over the years the big one happened and now you can't mine crypto and China and they're there seem to be very serious about it uh big coins fine because it is relatively decentralized I'm more of an ethereum fan if I had to pick one chain to rule them all um why don't you have more contracts well I think I think it's a programming platform and that's very exciting to me because platform is going to be worth quite a lot of money Bitcoin it's the main argument for its existence is there's not that many of them I don't care and it's the oldest one and I don't care about that because IBM's older than Google and Michael.

这段话是有关比特币在中国被禁止挖掘的话题，这个话题已经持续了很长一段时间，导致加密货币社区的人们视中国的任何消息都为无关紧要。但最近，中国政府真的开始严厉监管，禁止挖掘加密货币，尤其是以太坊。虽然比特币因为分散而不受影响，但如果我必须选择一条链来支配它们，我更喜欢以太坊。至于为什么没有更多的合同，我认为以太坊是一个编程平台，这令我非常兴奋，因为这个平台的价值会非常高。比特币之所以存在的主要原因是数量有限，但我并不关心这一点，也不在意它是最古老的一种。

what's I think Michael Seller uh I don't know if it's a insult or a compliment Michael Seller is the guy who owns micro something micro strategy he took his entire company which was providing research or something yeah and then pivoted it to being basically a holding company and he just he is like when I say Bitcoin Maximalist I mean to be nth degree um but I it does seem like China is now saying hey if you have our digital one your key insight there I think is 100% correct and it's due which is control control China wants control of everything the data their citizens their monetary supply entrepreneurship new products and services and completely where where capital it goes if you go back and read the english language and translate versions of the Chinese government bulletins regarding the crackdown on edtech I know that's kind of that's nuanced but it was a big chunk of the stuff we're talking about one thing that was mentioned was excessive excessive capital flowing into the space and the way this is being read by everyone who's a china watcher who knows much better than I do is that China wants to take the direction of its investment away from what it's been so good at consumer social fintech all this stuff and point it more towards hard tech like semiconductors and so forth uh I don't know if you can shift in economy by fiat like that I don't think again but that seems to be the overall uh read of the situation

我认为迈克尔·塞勒是个谦虚或是夸奖的问题，他拥有微乎其微（Micro Something）的公司，该公司提供研究等服务。他将其整个公司转向成为一家控股公司，并成为比特币极端主义者的典型代表。但现在中国好像在说，如果你有我们的数字货币，你必须遵从我们的控制。你的主要洞察力在于，中国想要掌控一切，包括公民，货币供应，创业，新产品和服务，以及资本流向。如果你回读关于中国政府对教育科技行业打压的英文文章和翻译版本，你会发现有一点被提到，那就是资本过度流入该领域。每个了解中国并比我更懂行的人都认为，中国希望将其投资的方向从消费类社交、金融科技等领域转向半导体等硬科技。我不知道是否可以通过行政命令来改变整个经济，但这似乎是整个情况的总体阅读。

but like to me Jason if you think of the most impressive chinese companies you're thinking you know made one by dance tencent you know alibaba you know these these big big names that you know yeah it turns out these education ones are huge well and they were valuable until recently if you if you want to get a sample of this look at the stock chart if you're listening to a tall education ta l space education and you'll see how much ground is lost in cyber right it's like 90% of its dollar you were something crazy yeah it was 143 down to three dollars it's just unbelievable and that's really interesting when after education because they also sort of indicated in their language that you shouldn't profit off of education this is a state run thing which dovetails with exactly what I was saying is control our education system here in the united states is broken we do such a terrible job on a on a public basis that people want to route around that and have competition of buying apps actually the other one ran is brilliant dot org which does math and stem and that's an affordable subscription that people are going crazy for um so this to me seems like the central control of the currency of education and of communication platforms

对我来说，如果你想到最令人印象深刻的中国公司，你会想到由抖音、腾讯和阿里巴巴等大公司组成的阵容。这些教育公司也同样强大，直到最近为止他们一直很有价值，你只需要看看他们的股票走势就能得到样本，如果你在关注卓朗教育（TA）和太空教育（TAL）的股票图表，你会看到它们在网络上失去了多少市场份额，这简直是惊人的，TA的市值曾经一度飙升到了143美元，现在只剩下3美元，跌幅高达90%。这对教育行业来说很有趣，因为他们在他们的语言中也暗示着你不能从教育中获利，这是一个国家的行为。这与我之前所说的教育系统的中央控制有关，美国的公立教育系统很失败，人们希望能够绕过这个问题，通过应用程序来进行竞争，实现购买并使用数学和STEM的应用程序，像brilliant.org这样的网站就非常受欢迎，而且收费也很实惠。对我来说，这似乎成为了教育和通信平台中央控制的货币方面的核心问题。

uh yeah goutou goutou te cedo i think is how it's um the one i'm talking about is goutou te cedo which is gato te you tal is a separate company both are down 90% but if you have the digital one i don't know if you heard about this but the real cynical case with the digital one is it provides even more control than print money in china because let's say you say something about g singping like i think he could do a better job oh and then we like spicy yeah i i think that uh you know he could uh be a better listener you say that they could literally be like huh Alex Jason having that conversation on your podcast beep your money is frozen yeah and we like they know yeah they can just freeze you on the blockchain okay we've got all your money um why did you ask come down to the office and talk to us okay my money is turned off okay oh yeah by the way we put all of your homes on the blockchain boop now we have we own your home and come talk to us and then we'll put you in a reeducation camp and your penalty is the house we just took for you in your home and then they know every transaction you've made with every person and if you they'll basically move to the point where they say you cannot use real money you must use blockchain money think about you know we opt into using apple pay but we can if we want to do transactions anonymously using cash or whatever we want um they will know every single thing about you on a communications platform basis and on a monetary basis yeah and there's no room for dissent and so the interesting question is where does this take them economically and where does this take them in a technology perspective i i think i mean call i'm gonna come out of the capital so once again on the show but like as a capitalist and who's in favor of liberal democracy i don't think so probably you're gonna get canceled i just i just i just do you're meeting it oh no i'm a vehement capitalist but i'm very loving one i'm a kind of a Danish capitalist if you will okay i'm a big fan of progressive tax rates uh but as a capitalist and a liberal uh democrat with a small amount of small d you know to me this just looks like the long set up to a series of misallocations of resources like i mean Jason why why does he know better than the entire combined wisdom of his economy where this money should be deployed and so forth and also it's just an enormous human freedom catastrophe to irrigate to one person who's humanity by people to ask your faith yeah and it's happening in front of our eyes yeah and this is not the number one story in the world we're talking about all kinds of other things the largest country in the world yep yes you know basically tied with us for the most influential economy in the world has now shut down cryptocurrency public market companies take it over hong kong sabarattling at tywan building more nuclear silos building more nuclear reactors and the god king said i'm in charge forever and he just took control of everything like what could go wrong here yeah so i should you know how about seriously i'm trying to take this i'm actually going back and rereading old z gping speeches from earlier in his in his tenure to get a better vibe for his politics and i added a marks novel novel a marks novel a marks book to my my book with my dad because i need to go back to my college days and figure out what what what some of these phrases are because i've forgotten some of my basic marks and so i i feel like that's how important this is but apple had earnings this week did really well makes them all in china for makes the lot of china how do you feel i mean like i'm not gonna lie i feel kind of i feel a little kbgb about that you know for me it's a little nervous yeah i think what we're going to see is the great disengagement we have this great engagement policy for decades if felt like china was possibly going in the right direction on human rights on open markets on free trade and i think we got walled into thinking hey this is just going to be a straight train to democracy and you know when they go into hong kong i'm sure they'll have kid gloves and they'll be reasonable they don't want to go into hong kong and just you know just tear up tear stuff up and they're just like yeah what's the newspaper apple okay yeah that's shut down you're all in jail okay who's on book you're all in jail great and by the way the court system is now not in hong kong it's on mainland so whenever you guys get a speeding ticket you're gonna cross the bridge and come to mainland china we're gonna talk about it over there yeah and no even more even more than this Jason like i forget which american clothing company was but they decide you not buy cotton from the i'm gonna butcher this everybody that john jing reason region where the where the we're the we're the we're sorry because they literally have the we're girls going into fields with zero sense of history irony uh or anything they literally have three million people

"嗯，高头高头特·西多，我认为这就是我谈论的那个公司。高头特·西多是单独的一家公司，而猫·特·尤塔尔是另外一家公司。两家公司的股价都下跌了90％，但如果你使用数字货币，我不知道你有没有听说过，数字货币在中国比印刷货币提供更多的控制。比如说你说一些关于习近平的话，比如说我认为他可能能做得更好，然后我们喜欢吃辣。他们可以直接说：“哦，亚历克斯·詹森（Alex Jason）在你的播客上讨论了这个话题，你的钱被冻结了”。然后他们知道了，他们可以通过区块链冻结你的财产。我们拥有你所有的房产，愿意来我们这谈谈吗？好，我的财产被关闭了。而且，顺便说一句，我们把你所有的房产都放在了区块链上。现在我们拥有了你的房子，来跟我们谈谈吧。然后他们会把你关在再教育营里，没收你的家，他们会了解你和每个人之间的每一次交易，如果他们决定你不能用真正的货币，你必须使用区块链货币，那么怎么办呢？你知道的，我们选择使用Apple Pay，但如果我们想匿名交易，用现金或其他我们想用的东西，我们可以。但是他们会知道你的一切：你在交流平台上和在货币基础上的所有活动。这是个非常严重的问题，没有余地去反抗，这会让人想起某个人的信念。而且，这些都是正在发生的事情，这不应该是世界上最重要的新闻吗？我们正在谈论各种事情，而最大的国家，和我们并列的最具有影响力的经济体之一，现在关闭了加密货币和公共市场公司，对台湾表示威胁，修建更多的核岛和更多的核反应堆。而且这位神王说，我永远掌管一切，他接管了一切，这可能会出什么问题呢？所以，真的，我正在尝试着去理解这个问题，我正在回顾习近平早期的演讲，以更好地了解他的政治背景。我和我父亲一起阅读了一本马克斯的书，因为我需要回到我的大学时代，并开始理解我已经忘记了的一些基础马克斯，因为这对我来说非常重要。不过，Apple这周发布的财报做得很好，它的产品大多在中国制造，你对此有何感受呢？坦白说，我觉得有点KBGB，我感到有点紧张。我认为我们将会看到大的脱钩，我们有数十年的大规模融合政策，感觉中国在人权、开放市场和自由贸易方面可能朝着正确的方向发展，我认为我们认为这只是一列通往民主的直通车，当他们进入香港时，我相信他们会有缓和的态度，他们不想进入香港然后就毁坏一切，他们只是说：“好的，报纸是苹果，好的，你们都要去坐牢。”好的，谁写了这篇文章，都要去坐牢，很棒。而且，法院现在不在香港，而是在中国大陆，所以不管你们收到什么罚单，你们都要过桥去中国大陆，我们将在那里谈论。比这更严重的是，我忘记了哪个美国服装公司，但他们决定不从新疆地区购买棉花，因为他们真的会让女孩进田野，不带任何的历史感或讽刺感，他们真的有三百万人。"

Paragraph 1: The speaker discusses two companies, goutou te cedo and gato te you tal, both of which have declined by 90%. He then goes on to discuss the control provided by blockchain in China and how it can lead to freezing a person's assets and seizing their homes.

演讲者谈论了两家公司，分别是Goutou Te Cedo和Gato Te You Tal，它们的股价都下跌了90%。然后他继续讨论了区块链在中国所提供的控制方式，它可以导致一个人的资产被冻结并且他们的房产被查封。

Paragraph 2: The speaker expresses concern about the economic and technological implications of this control, particularly from the perspective of a capitalist and democrat. They worry about misallocations of resources and the violation of basic human freedoms.

第二段：演讲者表达了对这种控制的经济和技术影响的关注，特别是从资本主义和民主的角度来看。他们担心资源的错误配置和基本人类自由的侵犯。

Paragraph 3: The speaker notes how China has taken over public market companies, and expresses concerns about China's ongoing power grab, which includes sabre-rattling with Taiwan and constructing nuclear reactors.

演讲者指出中国已经接管了公共市场公司，并对中国不断扩张的权力掌控表示关切，包括与台湾的刀剑战和建造核反应堆。

Paragraph 4: The speaker expresses concern about the disengagement of China from previous policies that supported open markets and human rights. The speaker also notes their reservations about China's policies towards Hong Kong and other matters, and suggests that engaging with China may not be as effective as previously thought.

第四段：演讲者表达了对中国脱离支持开放市场和人权的先前政策的担忧。演讲者还指出了他们对中国对香港和其他事务的政策的保留，并认为与中国接触可能不像以前想象的那么有效。

Paragraph 1: The speaker begins by discussing the coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the media, stating that it is important to understand the geopolitical implications of the outbreak and its handling by different countries. The speaker notes that the pandemic has highlighted the power and influence of the Chinese government in global affairs.

演讲者首先讨论了COVID-19大流行在媒体上的报道，指出了了解不同国家如何处理疫情爆发及其地缘政治影响的重要性。演讲者指出，这一疫情突显了中国政府在全球事务中的权力和影响力。

Paragraph 2: The speaker suggests that the Chinese government has used the pandemic to further its own interests, such as by providing aid to other countries in exchange for favorable treatment. The speaker argues that this should be seen as part of a broader effort by China to expand its global influence and assert its dominance.

演讲者认为，中国政府利用疫情进一步推动自身利益，例如通过为其他国家提供援助以换取有利待遇。演讲者认为，这应该被视为中国扩大其全球影响力并主张其统治地位的更广泛努力的一部分。

Paragraph 3: The speaker discusses the role of technology in enabling China's rise to power, particularly through the development of 5G networks and the use of surveillance and censorship to control information. The speaker argues that this creates significant risks for other countries and for the global order.

演讲者讨论了科技在推动中国崛起中所扮演的角色，尤其是通过开发5G网络和使用监控和审查来控制信息。演讲者认为这为其他国家和全球秩序带来了重大风险。

Paragraph 4: The speaker notes that many companies and individuals are willing to overlook these risks in order to access the Chinese market, which is seen as a major source of economic opportunity. The speaker argues that this creates a moral dilemma, as it requires complicity in the Chinese government's human rights abuses and other actions that undermine global stability.

演讲者指出，很多公司和个人愿意忽略这些风险，以便进入被视为重要的经济机遇来源的中国市场。演讲者认为这会造成道德困境，因为这需要与中国政府的侵犯人权和其他削弱全球稳定的行动相勾结。

Paragraph 1: The speaker begins by discussing the recent controversy around Subway sandwiches allegedly containing less than 50% real tuna. The speaker notes that this controversy highlights the complicated issue of traceability in the food industry. They argue that it is difficult to know where the ingredients in food products come from, which makes it hard for consumers to make informed choices.

演讲者首先讨论了最近在Subway火腿三明治中所谓的不足50％的真正金枪鱼引起的争议。 演讲者指出，这场争议凸显出食品行业中追溯性的复杂问题。 他们认为，难以知道食品产品中的原料来自何处，这使得消费者很难做出明智的选择。

Paragraph 2: The speaker then transitions to discussing the recent heatwave in the Pacific Northwest. They note that this heatwave was unprecedented, with temperatures reaching over 100 degrees Fahrenheit in many areas. The speaker highlights the climate change as a contributing factor to the extreme weather events that we are seeing across the globe.

演讲者接着谈到了最近在太平洋西北地区发生的热浪。他们指出，这次热浪是前所未有的，许多地区的温度都超过了100华氏度。演讲者强调气候变化是我们在全球范围内看到的极端天气事件的一个促成因素。

Paragraph 3: The speaker goes on to talk about the recent G20 summit, which was held virtually this year due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The speaker notes that one of the key topics of discussion at the summit was the global vaccine rollout. The speaker argues that access to vaccines remains a critical issue, particularly in low-income countries.

演讲者接着谈论了最近由于持续的新冠疫情，以在线方式举行的G20峰会。演讲者指出，全球疫苗接种是峰会讨论的关键议题之一。演讲者认为，疫苗接种的获取仍然是一个关键问题，特别是在低收入国家。

Paragraph 4: The speaker then discusses the recent protests in Cuba, which were sparked by the country's ongoing economic crisis. The speaker notes that the Cuban government is blaming the protests on outside forces, but many believe that the Cuban people are simply fed up with the government's mismanagement of the economy. The speaker also highlights the role of social media in spreading news about the protests and helping to mobilize activists.

演讲者接着讨论了最近在古巴发生的抗议活动，这是由该国持续的经济危机引起的。演讲者指出，古巴政府将抗议活动归咎于外部势力，但很多人认为，古巴人民只是对政府错误的经济管理感到厌烦。演讲者还强调了社交媒体在传播关于抗议活动的新闻和帮助动员活动家方面的作用。

Paragraph 5: The speaker discusses a clothing company that refuses to buy cotton from a region where there are reports of forced labor and human rights abuses. The speaker notes that this highlights the ongoing human rights issues in China, particularly related to the treatment of the Uyghur people. The speaker argues that many companies and individuals are willing to overlook these issues in order to profit from the Chinese market, even if it requires turning a blind eye to cultural genocide. The speaker argues that this creates a binary choice between complicity in human rights abuses and speaking out against them. The speaker emphasizes that there is no beef with individuals in China, but rather with the Chinese government.

演讲者谈到一个服装公司拒绝从遭受强制劳动和人权侵害报道的地区购买棉花。演讲者指出，这凸显了中国持续存在的人权问题，特别是与维吾尔人的待遇有关。演讲者认为，许多公司和个人愿意忽视这些问题，以从中国市场获取利润，即使这需要对文化灭绝视而不见。演讲者认为，这就在支持人权侵害和反对人权侵害之间呈现二选一的选择。演讲者强调，与中国个人无关，而是与中国政府有关。

Paragraph 6: The speaker discusses the use of iCloud by Apple in China and notes that while the company outsources the cloud ownership to a third party, they are still complicit in the Chinese government's human rights abuses. The speaker criticizes Tim Cook's public statements about human rights and argues that the company's actions tell a different story. The speaker also notes that while Apple may be privacy conscious in the United States, they are willing to hand over dissidents to the Chinese government.

演讲者探讨了苹果公司在中国使用 iCloud 的情况，并指出虽然该公司将云所有权外包给第三方，但他们仍然涉嫌参与中国政府的侵犯人权行为。演讲者批评了蒂姆·库克有关人权的公开声明，并认为公司的行动讲述了不同的故事。演讲者还指出，虽然苹果在美国可能会注意隐私保护，但他们却愿意将持不同政见者移交给中国政府。

Paragraph 1: The speaker begins by discussing the recent rise in the price of Bitcoin. They note that Elon Musk's tweets and other factors have contributed to the increase, and express skepticism about the sustainability of this growth.

演讲者开始讨论比特币价格的最近上涨。他们指出埃隆·马斯克的推文和其他因素对其增长有所贡献，并对这种增长的可持续性表示怀疑。

Paragraph 2: The speaker then shifts to discussing the threat that cryptocurrencies pose to traditional financial institutions. They argue that these institutions are now investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in order to stay competitive.

演讲者转而讨论加密货币对传统金融机构的威胁。他们认为，这些机构现在正在投资比特币和其他加密货币，以保持竞争力。

Paragraph 3: The speaker continues on the topic of finance, discussing the recent GameStop stock surge that was driven by Reddit users. They note that this event exposed flaws in the stock market and questioned whether the regulations around it are effective.

演讲者继续讨论了金融的话题，谈论了最近Reddit用户推动的GameStop股票暴涨事件。他们指出这一事件揭示了股市中的缺陷，并质疑其周围的监管是否有效。

Paragraph 4: The speaker then shifts to discussing the tech industry, specifically the recent controversy surrounding Facebook's decision to ban Australian news outlets from their platform. They argue that this move highlights the immense power that Facebook wields over the media landscape, and question whether this is good for society.

演讲者之后转向讨论科技行业，特别是关于Facebook决定在其平台上禁止澳大利亚新闻机构的最近争议。他们认为，这一举动突显了Facebook在媒体景观上所具有的巨大权力，并质疑这是否有益于社会。

Paragraph 5: The speaker then discusses the broader problem of misinformation on social media. They argue that social media platforms have a responsibility to address this issue, as it can have real-world consequences.

演讲者接着谈论了社交媒体上更广泛的错误信息问题。他们认为，社交媒体平台有责任解决这个问题，因为它可能会造成现实世界的后果。

Paragraph 6: The speaker then discusses the recent controversy surrounding Apple's cooperation with the Chinese government in suppressing dissent. They argue that Apple's actions are morally questionable and suggest that consumers should consider this when making purchasing decisions.

演讲者随后讨论了关于苹果与中国政府压制异议合作的最近争议。他们认为苹果的行为在道德上是值得质疑的，并建议消费者在做出购买决定时考虑这一点。

Yeah let me get the Macbook M1 and it is unbelievable how long that god damn battery lasts and how fast it is with uh your browser. Yeah, so I run a lot of tabs so that's pertinent to my interests, but if you're part of the 50 plus tabs you know and multiple monitor club, oh yeah, it is so amazing and it never heats up. You never have the fan come on where your sounds like it's like a v-tall taking off like it's a joby. Literally, the fan on this thing runs whenever I don't have the AC turned on my office but I can't have the AC turned on my office because it blows onto the microphone so I have to literally just sweat it out on pods. It's terrible, it's brutal. That new one you get zero of that. The battery lasts forever, uh, it's just extraordinary.

让我买一个M1款的Macbook，它的电池寿命长得让人难以置信，而且使用你的浏览器速度非常快。我经常开很多网页，所以这对我来说很重要。但如果你也是开50个以上的网页，而且有多个显示器的俱乐部的一员，那么这款电脑绝对是惊人的，而且从不发热。不会出现滑翔机起飞的声音，就像是一个v-shaped的飞机。实际上，这个电脑的风扇只有在我没有开空调的办公室里运行时才会运转，但我不能开空调，因为它会吹到麦克风上，所以我必须在座位上流汗。这很糟糕，很残酷。但是新的Macbook，你就不用担心这些了。电池寿命很长，真的非常出色。

Paragraph 7: The speaker then shifts to discussing Apple's recent earnings report, which they describe as "fantastic." The speaker notes that the company's Q3 sales were up 80%, driven in large part by strong iPhone sales. The speaker questions whether this growth was partially driven by stimulus checks and argues that the company's success should not be overlooked in light of their complicity in human rights abuses in China.

演讲者随后开始讨论苹果最近的收益报告，将其形容为“极佳的”。演讲者指出，该公司第三季度的销售额增长了80％，在很大程度上由于iPhone销售强劲的推动。演讲者质疑这种增长是否部分受到刺激支票的推动，并认为在考虑到苹果公司在中国的人权侵犯问题时，不应忽视其成功。

I got a question, how did this happen because Intel has been making chips since before I was born? Yep, Apple newer to the semiconductor space and yet they come out with the M1 chip and it's like all the things you just said. I can't recall last time I got hype about a process here. It was the Pentium is three when I was like 15, you know? This is how did how did Apple do this and not Intel? Okay, it's a great question. I think what happened was Apple got very interested with the A series of chips in the iPhone of, we need to control our destiny and the chips we're getting from other people are not going to get us where we need to get in terms of a competitive advantage.

我有一个问题，因为英特尔在我出生之前就开始制造芯片了，这是怎么发生的？没错，苹果相对于半导体行业来说还比较新，但他们推出了M1芯片，就像你刚才说的那样，我已经忘记了最后一次因为处理器而狂热了。我大约15岁时是因为 Pentium III 巨大性能互联网就这样。这是苹果如何做到的而不是英特尔呢？好的，这是一个很好的问题。我认为发生的是，苹果对 iPhone 中的 A 系列芯片非常感兴趣，我们需要掌控自己的命运，我们从其他人那里得到的芯片不能为我们带来更有竞争力的优势。

Once they start, we'll start realizing uh graphics and battery life are two of the key features of the phone. In other words, if your battery lasts longer, you can do more intensive processing. If you can do more intensive processing, you can do take better pictures, do better picture software, you can play better games. That combination of needs said purpose-driven chip. Okay, we have unlimited money, we are selling billions of these devices, and then the engine in our car is made by somebody who doesn't understand what we're building in the scale of this effort we have to do it now.

一旦开始，我们就会意识到手机的图像和电池寿命是重要的两个特征。换句话说，如果你的电池续航时间更长，你就可以进行更加高强度的处理。如果你能进行更加高强度的处理，你就可以拍摄更好的照片，使用更好的图片软件，你可以玩更好的游戏。这种需求的组合导致了目标驱动的芯片。好的，我们有无限的钱，我们要销售数十亿台设备，但我们汽车的引擎是由一些人制造的，他们不理解我们正在构建的规模和所需做的努力。我们必须现在就解决这个问题。

You start doing that and you start realizing wow, the margin on these things, right? Because when you would buy a Dell computer, whatever you remember, they would offer you an arm chip or the Pentium or whatever it was, the Ampd or until. Yeah, Ampd or Intel and you're talking about what was the different two hundred dollars on the cost of the computer.

当你开始这样做的时候，你就会意识到哇，这些产品的利润率很高，对吧？因为当你购买戴尔电脑时，无论你记得什么，他们都会给你提供一个 ARM 芯片，或者是 Pentium 或者其他的 Ampd 或 Intel。是的，Ampd 或者 Intel，你正在讨论的是这些电脑在成本上的不同价值高达两百美元。

It was all steep to get the Intel chip, yeah, so you're like okay and a twelve hundred dollars nine hundred dollars or I can get a twelve hundred to twelve hundred but I can get 32 gigs of ram versus eight gigs. of ram we've made those trade-offs and i think that's why purpose driven silicon came to the phones and then they were just like you know what what is good how do we win laptops batteries yeah and these stupid fans going off and then once so i think the the i phone gave them the dexterity in the muscle memory well you know to do it and then they just got emboldened like imagine if we had one chip for the iPads and for the desktops then we recapture all that margin and then we can make it specific to the use case well what's the use case they could just look at the data

为了获取英特尔芯片，他们付出了高昂的代价，例如1200美元或900美元，或者他们可以选择1200美元的芯片，但是内存容量可以达到32GB而不是8GB。他们必须做出这些权衡取舍，这就是为什么有目的的硅芯片开始用于手机，并且不断壮大，以此应对笔记本电脑电池和噪音等问题。一旦他们掌握了这项技术，他们便开始大胆尝试，思考如果我们为iPad和台式机开发一种芯片，那么我们就可以重新赢得优势，使芯片更具特定用途的针对性。他们可以查看数据来了解用途。

people people people use their laptops to surf fucking web that's it it's 90% of what people are doing they're in a web browser all their software is in a web browser even the software they download that's not a web browser it's just a wrap the web browser in a lot of cases so which is why tweet tick runs out of ram yeah exactly and so i think purpose and then i think that's why you long put hit made his own chips for uh the testless like he's got his own circuit board that they made specifically for that use case which is real time processing of you know visual data across x number of cameras so that that seems to be the beginning and the end of it and yeah i mean intel is over i mean do not actually really mad right now is sautie and the dell because he inherited windtell right this this this union of intel and and windows and then apple just came along was like oh you guys are terrible at this and they just made a much better chip on its first it's the m1 that's so good yeah i can see the m3 is gonna be yeah i can see the m1 like the a 15 whatever yeah because they're up to i think they're up to 14 or something with it oh it's been that many gosh i'm gonna do it yeah it's been a lot i'm trying to look the the a4 was march 10th to september 2023 that's the a4 wow in the series so and the a14 bionic is september 2020 so i mean they're doing it every year they come up with a new a processor and that that's the soup to nuts you know experience that i think elan is doing with tesla's like he makes every part not being dependent on anybody in the supply chain is i think tim cook and elan came to that observation at the same time yeah

人们使用笔记本电脑冲浪上网，这就是90%的人所做的事情。他们都在网络浏览器中，所有的软件都在网络浏览器中，即使是下载的软件也是浏览器的包装。这就是为什么tweet tick会耗尽内存的原因。我认为这就是目的所在，这也是为什么长底投资的埃隆马斯克为无人驾驶汽车制作了他自己的芯片，他们专门为这个用例制作了自己的电路板。这个用例就是实时处理相机数据的可视化数据，这似乎是起点和终点。是的，英特尔现在已经过时了。现在真正生气的人是苏提和戴尔，因为他们继承了windtell，这个intel和windows的联盟，然后苹果公司出现了，说：“哦，你们在这方面做得很糟糕”，并且第一次制作了一个更好的芯片，即M1芯片。我可以看到M3芯片将会是怎样的，因为他们已经到了14或者其他的数字。他们每年都会推出一个全新的A处理器，我认为这就是埃隆马斯克所做的，他制作了每一个零部件，而不是依赖于供应链中任何人的产物。我认为蒂姆·库克和埃隆马斯克在同一时间都达到了这个观察点。

it's interesting actually tesla is working to secure different elements for its batteries from direct from mining companies now yeah going back to the going direct thing i mean they're literally saying look let's just we're buying a lot of this stuff we don't need to go through any matter i literally have talked to elan about this many times over the years and he's like materials come in this side of the building cars now that's a cars come out the metal and then in the middle there's a battery pack being made that goes into the car but basically you know he said some i remember when he was building the giga fact i usually don't talk about my conversation elan but this is public knowledge now the giga factory out in novada we he showed it to me when he was just building it and gave me a tour and he's like this is the company the company is the factory yeah it's not what comes out the factory itself is the product that was like oh my mind is blown out the famise on and warehouse tech exact analogy yeah amazon amazon when no one was looking was building robots for its factories and building these hyper efficient logistics set ups and everyone thought it was just like this bookseller it turns out that the warehouse is amazon and the so they put that company server right they put that robotic company that does a couple more than one yeah they bought the one that's like the flat one that zips around and yeah looks like a hockey puck with the little yucky puck zipping stuff around

特斯拉正在从矿业公司直接获取不同元素以确保其电池的可靠性，这实际上是很有趣的。他们直接采购这些材料，不需要通过任何中间环节。作者曾多次与埃隆讨论过这一点，他说材料从一边进入建筑物，汽车从另一边驶出，而在中间，则是制造电池包装的地方。我记得他在建立内华达州的吉加工厂时曾向我展示它，并给我参观，他说：这个工厂就是公司，工厂所产出的产品是我们的产品。这让我大吃一惊，这就像亚马逊仓库的技术一样，当大家都注重亚马逊的销售业务时，他们在悄悄研发机器人，建立超高效的物流系统，仓库才是亚马逊的核心。他们购买了多家机器人公司，包括可以滑来滑去的扁平机器人。

it does seem like this the super cycle of tech combined with the pandemic is this like perfect um super storm if you will of adoption of this technology because i don't know what it's like in providence but i'm assuming when you go to a restaurant there's no more waiters you just take a picture of a QR code you order from your phone on toast or something and then they bring you the food with a runner

这似乎是科技超级周期和疫情的完美结合，如果你愿意，可以将其称为超级风暴，这将促进对这种技术的采纳，因为我不知道普罗维登斯是什么情况，但我假设当你去餐馆时，不再需要服务员，而只需扫描二维码或在手机上使用 Toast 平台订餐，然后服务员会送上食物。

It depends on where I'm going. Um, I live in a kind of small business part of town, kind of one of those collegiate streets but let lots of little shops, so those are still pretty hands-on. But even at those now, the QR skin thing, pull up the website is happening. Uh, even in those places and, a lot of restaurants are still mostly, you know, pickup. Like there's this little cafe in my house called, it's fantastic. I eat there like more often than I should because it's around the corner, and uh, you know, they just have a whole table now set up permanently for pickup and like that's just now a defective thing. So it's all digital for me essentially.

这要看我去哪里。我住在一个小型商业街区，那里有很多小商店，但现在很多地方都开始使用QR码和网站来提供服务。很多餐厅现在主要都是取餐。我家附近有一家叫做Fantastic的小咖啡馆，我常常去吃，他们现在也设置了一个专门的取餐桌。对我来说，现在基本上一切服务都是数字化的。

Yeah, and I think that if you think about the economy post-pandemic, whenever post-pandemic exists which I thought we were in the post, I'm so depressed about unfurled rated, I have a lot of emotion about like how we screwed up the reopening because I thought this was the yellow time we start going to concerts again. I want to go to Broadway. I wanted to do everything this fall and summer, and I think the lord the selfish people who will get vaccines we have to figure out a way to get them over the uh, but before we go to Pinterest and we wrap up like let me just make a point about that.

我认为，如果你考虑疫后经济，无论何时有了疫后，我认为我们已经过了疫情后的时期了，我对我们重新开放的失败感到沮丧，我有很多情绪，就像我们如何搞砸了重新开放，因为我以为这是我们重新参加音乐会的黄色时期。我想去看百老汇表演。我想这个秋天和夏天做各种各样的事情，我认为，那些会得到疫苗的自私人们应该感恩，我们必须想办法让他们过来，但在我们去Pinterest之前，让我就这个问题发表一个观点。

I haven't seen my parents since December of 2019 and if delta blocks me if you know to fly them out here, I don't see them to the Christmas because some of you won't get vaccinated. I shall be mad. I missed them. I like them a lot; they raised me. I would like to get them a hug, but they're vaccinated, I assume. Oh yeah, yeah my whole family is full of rational scientists so no worries, it's fun. Yeah, I mean and then people are like, oh my god the people who are getting vaccinated, the people who are in the hospital in this town are vaccinated, it's like the town is 90% vaccinated and you're of course the people who do come summer going to have covid but they're not dying.

自2019年12月以来，我就没有见到我的父母。如果德尔塔阻止他们飞来看我，那么因为一些人不愿接种疫苗，我将不能在圣诞节和他们见面。我会很生气的。我很想念他们，我非常喜欢他们，他们养育了我。我想给他们一个拥抱，但我觉得他们已经接种了疫苗。噢，是的，我的整个家族都是理性的科学家，所以别担心，这很有趣。而且人们总是说，“哦，天啊，这个镇上住院的人是已经接种过疫苗的，这个镇有90%都接种了疫苗，但是那些来玩的人当然会患上新冠肺炎，但是他们不会死亡。”

But anyway my point of this all was, yeah I think a lot of that's one of the things that's going to stay and the idea that being a waiter or a server, I think we're going to just get rid of millions of jobs in this country that were hostess, server matrady uh, and register whatever cashier I think those are just everybody is applying that technology and there were restaurants who did not ever think they would let people order their own food from their smartphone who are like this is so much better oh chasing this is so much uh, uh near-ish to me that's big enough that's it naked doesn't have to bleep it out.

无论如何，我想要表达的是，我认为这些变化中有很多是会持续下去的，比如服务员的工作。我认为我们的国家将会消除数百万个招待员、服务员、服务台和收银员的工作，因为每个人都在应用科技。有些餐馆从来没有想过会让顾客用智能手机自己点餐，但事实证明这样做更好。对于我来说，这是一个相当大的变化，足以没有必要进行审查。

Called Alphornos, and it's a relatively well-known Italian restaurant if you live in the northeast you've heard of. It's fancy and lovely, and uh, they came up with a really amazing takeout strategy during the pandemic. Like this is the restaurant where like it was like only a valley of parking and like fancy people go there for like yeah, you know like birthdays. You know it was it was. It's now they're like parking slot for it we'll bring out your Italian food like everyone adapted so quickly; the economy has been a real human story of uh, of flexibility in the last 18 months.

Alphornos被誉为比较知名的意大利餐厅，如果你在东北部地区生活，你一定听说过它。它很高档，令人愉快，在疫情期间，餐厅想出了一种非常棒的外卖策略。以前这是一家只有很少停车位，只有高档人士去庆祝生日的餐厅。现在他们设置了一个外卖停车位，我们会把你的意大利美食送到你的车旁。每个人都适应得非常快，过去18个月的经济发展真正展示了人们的灵活性。

Alright, should we add on Pinterest or going back to work in offices and the device? Let's do, let's do going back to work in offices. Time I read your notes about this, and I want to hear your thoughts. Well, I think we talked about this on the island pod. You know we predicted a couple of episodes ago like of course if you're in tech and you're going to reopen your office or you know uh, you're going to force people to be vaccinated or they can't come to your office, especially if you're doing hybrid.

好的，我们应该在Pinterest上加上还是回到办公室和设备上工作？让我们选择回到办公室上班。我读了你的笔记，想听听你的想法。嗯，我想我们在岛上的播客中已经讨论过这个问题了。你知道我们在几集之前就预测了，如果你是科技行业的人，你将会重新开放办公室或者，你将会强制要求员工接种疫苗，否则他们就不能来到你的办公室，特别是如果你在采用混合工作模式。

Why would you allow unvaccinated people in the building and so of course, I guess Netflix Google and a group of people are now going to force you to be vaccinated if you come to the office and I think that's the carrot. And I think that has to make its way to sporting arenas, restaurants in San Francisco, there's a movement to force uh if you want to go to a bar, you got. to show your vaccine card at lawla paulusa they said uh you have to show your vaccine card and if the FBI put out a notice if you uh make a fake card you're going to go to jail and you're going to get a huge fine so like there will be enforcement of people doing fake vaccine cards so i think that this is the only choice we have to keep the economy going is to have vaccine.

为什么你允许未接种疫苗的人进入建筑物，当然，我想Netflix，Google和一群人现在会强制你在到办公室时必须接种疫苗，我认为这是诱因。我认为这必须在体育馆，旧金山的餐厅等地实行，有一项运动要求，如果你想去酒吧，你得出示你的疫苗卡。在Lawla PaulUSA，他们说你必须出示你的疫苗卡，而如果FBI发布通知，如果你伪造疫苗卡，你将会被监禁并罚款巨大，因此对于伪造疫苗卡的人也将加强执法。我认为，保持经济的唯一选择就是接种疫苗。

you know i hate to say it but you know like the carrot didn't work and now there's going to be a stick like you're just not going to be able to participate in certain things in france israel and now the united states period which is which is reasonable given the vaccine is safe and it's free and it helps protect other people and stopping so selfish now to be clear if you can't take it because you're immunosuppressed or so forth we're not talking about you we're not going to be people who can get it and won't those people are the problems not not three year old two can't get it yet i'm talking about the people who are thirty seven and you deluths who are refusing i hate you everyone's fine.

你知道，我不喜欢说这个，但你知道就像胡萝卜不管用了，现在要用棍子了，你将不能参加法国、以色列和现在美国的某些活动，这是很合理的，因为疫苗是安全的，是免费的，有助于保护他人，阻止自私的行为。现在明确一下，如果你因为免疫抑制等原因无法接种疫苗，我们不是在谈论你，我们不会针对能够接种而不愿意的人，这些人才是问题，而不是三岁的孩子，他们还不能接种疫苗。我说的是那些拒绝接种疫苗的37岁的人，还有像你这样的人，我讨厌你，每个人都没事。

uh question though so i'm you're you're not at the office right now i can tell them actually i've been to your office i've not been to your house and that works more like a house uh i'm at home and i'm feeling great nick uh run in the pod with uh with charles here at the at the at the at the office and nick is at home yeah yeah but i mean like you know we i used to show up to do this with you and now we just do it like this and i feel fine and it's better to me to me promote work is uh as saved my life as an individual way before the pandemic so let me do stuff row you know and support my spouse.

嗯，虽然问题不大，但是你现在不在办公室，我可以告诉他们这一点。实际上，我已经去过你的办公室，但我从未去过你的家，那更像是一座房子。我在家里，感觉很棒。尼克和查尔斯在办公室里录制播客，而尼克则在家里。我是说，我们以前是一起去做这件事的，现在我们只是这样做，我觉得很好，对我来说促进工作的方式在疫情之前就已经救了我的命，所以让我去做一些事情，并支持我的配偶。

So you know to me the whole whole of blue about companies wanting people to go back i just think they have big leases they don't want to fill i can't figure out why um these progressive companies in the work management sense uh are are turning into the the most boomerie sounding companies like come back three days a week no i won't i wish yes absolutely not i think it's a great rotation i mean if you were forced to come to an office you would look at other options the at instantly yeah instantly and so i think that and i was predicting this which is you know if you want to keep the most talented people and some number of them want to work from home it's so hard to find a game changing employee talented team member you're just gonna have no choice i mean if you're Netflix if you read hastings if you're a tim cook and you're top person in PR in marketing in engineering and design whatever it is yeah whatever if they say you know what i'm.

对我来说，公司希望员工回到办公室的整个想法只是因为他们有很大的租赁面积需要填充。我想不明白为什么这些在工作管理上非常进步的公司变得像最老派的公司一样，要求员工每周回办公室工作三天。不，我不会这样做，如果我被强制要求去办公室工作，我会立刻考虑其他选择。如果你想留住最有才华的员工中的一部分人想在家工作，你就必须做出选择。我预测过这一点，如果你是 Netflix 的 Reed Hastings，或者是苹果公司的 Tim Cook，在公关、市场营销、工程或设计领域拥有顶级人才团队中的首席人员，如果他们说：“我想在家工作”，你就必须接受这一点。找到一个具有颠覆性的才华员工，组成优秀的团队非常困难，你别无选择。

working from Tahoe or i'm going to work at a startup what are you going to do you're gonna let them work from Tahoe and probably subsidize they have a gigabit internet because that's the most efficient thing to do but going all the way back to the first part of our conversation i would go to the office and i would do social things i would i would stand in the kitchen and i would talk to people i'd make a couple of connections and to be clear those would occasionally be useful and work sense but when i was doing 50 50 sf and and and Providence i would like go to sf and do companies after two weeks and then i would go home and work for two weeks right and like my output differential as a writer was so extremely different because yes here the only distraction is my puppy when she needs to pee two minutes and then i'm back which is actually kind of a nice break take to if you're a writer to get that little fresh air break is actually a creative to your performance yeah and she's been great for that but i mean like if you told me tomorrow that i have to start driving to the train station taking the commuter rail to Boston by any small muffin somewhere along the way and then walk across Boston to the office and then shake hands with it key people and then like sit down at a desk that that's that's a two hours of my day you better be paying me like a hundred percent more if you're going to take a short four hours my day because what yeah i think you can't put the genie back in the bottle no i think that what could be very interesting is and i've been thinking about this like if i move to Austin if i move to Austin i could find an area where people could afford to live and walk to work in one of these small towns there and i was like you know what that could be quite charming if i had my own event space slash you know there was affordable housing i think actually people would love to go to work three days a week or for four hours for a day and get out of their house like if i said to you hey we're gonna on Wednesdays we're gonna tape the show and have lunch and we're gonna do you know a meeting about the editorial for the week and we were working at the same company but don't get out of the house one day a week to get to see everybody so that seemed like that hybrid model will become the default yeah back in the my first assistant at tech wrench we had mandatory fun time which was i think like four p.m. on Thursdays and everyone was supposed to come into the office at four p.m.

"我要在塔霍工作，或者我要去一家初创企业工作。你打算怎么做？你会让他们在塔霍工作，可能会补贴他们的千兆网络，因为这是最有效的事情。但回到我们对话的开头，我会去办公室，进行社交活动。我会站在厨房里和人们交谈，建立一些联系，并且需要明确的是，这些联系有时在工作上会有用。但当我在旧金山和普罗维登斯两地工作时，我会去旧金山进行公司会议两周，然后回家工作两周。我的写作产出差异非常大，因为在这里，唯一的干扰是我的小狗需要上厕所两分钟，然后我就回来了，这实际上是一次不错的小休息。如果你是一名作家，这个小放松对你的表现是有创造性的。但是如果明天告诉我我必须开车去火车站，乘坐通勤列车到波士顿，在途中找个小松饼，然后步行穿过波士顿到办公室握手与关键人物，并坐在桌前，那就得占用我两个小时。你要付我至少多一倍工资才能占用我的四小时。我觉得这种情况已经无法逆转了。但是如果我搬到奥斯汀，我可以找到一个人们可以负担得起住房并步行上班的小镇，那将非常有魅力。如果有自己的活动场地和负担得起的住房，我认为人们会喜欢每周工作三天或每天工作四小时，出去可以看到大家。如果我对你说：“嘿，我们在周三录制节目并吃午饭，我们会讨论本周的编辑工作，我们在同一家公司工作，但可以在家外一天，看看大家。”，那感觉就像是这种混合模型将成为默认模式。在TechCrunch，我的第一位助理确立了强制性的娱乐时间，这是在周四下午4点左右，所有人都应该在下午4点左右进入办公室。”

on Thursdays and have a beer and then it was a way to like engender camaraderie and make sure i knew where their badges were and and you know what it worked reasonably well i have a bunch of people working for me i've never met and that is the thing i miss most about this and i and i hope we get back to and i do think it's a boomer thing like you you invest in a an apple star ship four billion dollar campus or your google i do think that those folks think great product is made in a space and that that space is going to be a competitive that i believe they believe that i believe they're probably wrong yeah yeah that it's necessary for all employees it's probably i'm wondering do you think the iPhone and the design of it could have been made remote today with today's tools i think small physical product teams are always going to have a difference that of requirements and the information workers that were discussing yeah you know what i mean like developer different than writer and writers and developers different than johnny i've been steve yeah like if you're if you're literally inventing a new like like category of device you're gonna want to sit in a room with mock-ups and touch them yeah good johnny i even go to the office in the meantime i won't be uh last question with a lot of question for you yeah uh middle management and a lot of people that that thrive in the office environment um feel increasingly spur-flawless to me and in this in this moment of hundred percent you're going to work so does this thin

每逢星期四，我们一起喝啤酒，这是一种培养同事之间的情谊，确保我知道他们的工作牌在哪里的方法。你知道，这个方法还是挺成功的，我有一些员工从未见过面，这是我最怀念的事情，我希望我们能重返办公室，我认为这可能是婴儿潮一代的想法，他们会投资于一个四十亿美元的苹果星舰或者谷歌，他们认为伟大的产品是在一个空间里制造的，而且这个空间会是一个竞争优势，我认为他们可能是错的。你认为如今的工具可以实现iPhone的设计吗？我认为小的产品团队和我们讨论的信息工作者之间总会有差异，你知道我的意思，比如说开发者和作家是不一样的，作家和开发者又和乔尼·伊夫和史蒂夫不一样。如果你正在发明一种新的设备类别，你会想要在办公室里与模型亲身接触和感受它们。此外还有个问题，很多管理层和在办公室环境中获得成功的人对我来说越来越难以理解，在这个百分之百的时代，你还是必须工作，你怎么看呢？

Paragraph 1: No more text. Out the leadership ranks of companies okay two great things that people will not talk about publicly but is that it is being talked about privately on boards on walking talks between investors and management which is dead weight middle management that you know set up the meeting set the agenda for the meeting and basically loaded over people and made sure they were at their desk on time all that bullshit is gone because we're just looking at output.

第一段：不再需要文字。公司领导层的两件大事，人们不会公开谈论，但是在董事会和投资者与管理层之间的私人谈话中被讨论，那就是死重的中层管理已经不复存在了。他们安排会议并确定会议议程，基本上统治着人们，确保他们及时到岗，所有这些糊弄人的事情都已经消失了，因为我们只看产出。

Paragraph 2: And it's hard with remote workers to judge output but if you're forced to figure that out which everybody has just like the restaurants were forced to figure it out that what you eventually realize is okay those middle managers were doing nothing they were just really performative and maybe they wrote great tps reports but you don't need a tps report if your team is keeping track of themselves unnoted so self reporting is something i worked on with my teams.

对于远程工作者，评估他们的工作成果很困难，但是像任何人一样，我们必须弄清楚这一点。就像餐厅被迫弄清楚一样，你最终会意识到那些中层管理人员什么也没做，他们只是表现出色，也许写了很棒的Tps报告，但是如果您的团队能够自我跟踪，那么您就不需要Tps报告。因此，自我报告是我与团队一起工作的内容。

Paragraph 3: And the investments is just have people write in slack what they're doing at the start of the day and at the end of the day reply to their own start of day with their EOD and i wrote this whole article which is my whole teams at inside and at launch right s o d closing this dl doing this you know clean up work reviewing these legal documents at the end of the day they reply back to and say what they did total transparency you manage yourself and then when you leave the company we can look at your end of weeks and what you did and we say okay reviewing legal documents will outsource that that seemed to be 30% of what this person was doing.

投资的方法是让员工在每天开始工作时在 Slack 上记录他们的工作内容，并在工作结束时回复自己开始工作的内容，包括当天的工作总结。我写了这篇全团队的文章，介绍了我们在 Inside 和 Launch 中的工作内容，包括收尾工作、法律文件审核等。员工在一天结束时回复这些工作内容，实现了完全透明的自我管理。员工离开公司后，我们可以查看他们一周的工作情况，评估他们的工作表现。例如，我们可以发现法律文件审核占该员工 30% 的工作时间，这时我们可以考虑外包这部分工作。

Paragraph 4: And the other two thirds okay you're gonna do one third and you're gonna do the other third or we're gonna deprecate what we're doing we don't need to refill that position so it actually makes you understand exactly what everybody in the company was doing yeah that'll scale pretty well and there'll be some other model for something else but i mean the idea of having like 13 layers of management between x and y y york shard i mean and god i mean those people were annoying.

剩下的三分之二，你们将会分别负责其中的三分之一。或者我们会废止我们当前的做法，不需要再填补这个职位。这将使你了解公司内部每个人在做些什么，非常适合扩展。当然，在其他情况下，可能需要采用不同的模式。但是，把X和Y之间层级管理达到13层的想法，是相当令人恼火的。

Paragraph 5: They was through the people who would come by your desk and talk to you take you out of your rhythm no no yeah let's go and go for a walk talk and you're like hey no i literally you're stealing my words yeah you got you got a minute no i don't because it's one of 15 and two it means i'll have to leave late yeah i don't you have anything to do you know like and then you think about the cost of the space then you think about the cost of reception oh yeah all this stuff.

第五段: 有些人会来到你的办公桌旁跟你聊天，打乱你的节奏，不，不行，我们不去散步聊天，你会说：“嘿，不行，你在偷我的时间。”当他们问你有没有一分钟时间时，你会回答：“不行，因为这会让我晚走，而且我要完成十五件任务，你知道吗。”然后你会想到租金的成本，想到前台的成本等等。

Paragraph 6: I mean i think companies are gonna save 30 to 40 percent on top of a 30 maybe 20 or 30 percent savings and salaries because when you are hiring i mean we know at tech branch writers in san francisco and engage at writers in new york we're getting paid it was double or triple what people working from home we're getting paid.

我的意思是，我认为公司会节省30%到40%的成本，再加上可能为员工薪水省下的20%到30%的成本，因为当公司雇用员工时，我们知道在旧金山的技术部门的作家和在纽约的作家获得的薪水是远高于在家工作的人的两倍或三倍。

Paragraph 7: Vosh's average salary is 45 to 50 k i think and there i know i think actually i was looking at vox because i was comparing it to insides where we're paying $75,000 for our analysts but it's you can work from anywhere so i'm hiring people in canada in europe from anywhere and i thought 75k is pretty good for an analyst before five years experience to write and host events uh and then if you look at vox they're starting salaries 52k so i think that's the minimum that's the minimum.

翻译： Vosh的平均薪资我想应该是45到50千美元，实际上我正在比较Vox和Insides，在我们的公司，我们为分析师支付75,000美元，但他们可以在任何地方工作，所以我要在加拿大和欧洲等地方招聘人才。我认为75,000美元是一名分析师五年经验前能获得的不错薪资，可以编写和主持活动。而如果你看Vox，他们的起薪为52k，所以我认为这是最低工资线。

Paragraph 8: Is 52 and i think the average is 6570 and i was like okay well we're beating them uh but tech branch writers were making a hundred k or whatever and guys your writers in york are making a hundred k and it was you know i think that those salaries don't get reversed but i think over time you'll see salaries average out from cities and if if you were forced to you know take a pay cut or whatever it'd be like um take a pay cut stay in providence or move to a city like uh oh i mean gun to my head i'll take i'll take like i'm not gonna say it all out but a relatively material pay cut to stay here because i i like it here um but like yeah i think you're right about the.

我是52岁，我认为平均工资是6570美元，我当时觉得，我们的薪水要比这些技术公司的作家高，但是他们在纽约的作家年薪都有十万美元。我认为这些薪水不会反转，但是时间会让城市的薪水平均化。如果你被迫减薪或者其他的选择，你可以留在普罗维登斯，也可以选择搬到一个城市。在极端情况下，我会愿意接受一个比较大的薪水削减，留在这里，因为我喜欢这里。但是你说得还是对的。

average in the salaries i think we're both right about middle management and to me just uh i actually have to go right a newsletter for tc uh i think it's a better future i think so like i this is it's gonna be painful do you know there's gonna be repercussions and things we don't expect to happen but i think generally speaking we're moving towards a more healthy conversation about work and and work life balance uh and you know thank god more choice yeah i think it's really about choice there'll be a group of people who wants to go to that office and be part of that and there'll be a group of people who prefer to stay home and a group of people in the middle and i think it's flipped power now it's like you don't get to lord over employees this is how it's gonna be it's gonna be a negotiation um and you'll just you can't dictate anymore and you have to get comfortable with that employees are empowered and the best ones always have been they just didn't know it yeah those top employees didn't realize that if they said i'm working from tall at the lake and i want the same salary that soccer bird would have caved you know and the world used to be run by vcs and middle management now it's run by founders and ic so ha ha ha ha the world has come towards me well it is it is the

平均薪资方面，我认为对于中层管理人员，我们两个都是正确的。其实，我现在得赶紧写 TC 的新闻简报。我认为未来会更好，虽然有一些痛苦，可能会带来意料之外的后果，但总体而言，我们正朝着更加健康的关于工作和工作与生活平衡的谈话方向前进。而且，谢天谢地，有了更多的选择。 我认为这个问题真正的关键在于选择。会有一群人想去办公室，成为那里的一员；会有一群人更喜欢呆在家里；还有一些人居于中间。权力已经翻转了，你不能再支配员工了，以前是你这样安排，现在是双方协商的结果。你要适应员工拥有权力的新局面。最好的员工一直都有能力支配自己的事情，只是他们不知道罢了。如果那些顶级员工意识到自己在家里工作的时候，也可以得到同样的薪水，那么公司方面肯定会答应的。现在，世界的运作不再由风险投资家和中层管理人员决定，而是由创始人和独立承包人掌控。哈哈，世界向着我的方向发展了。

the virtuoso's the people with the actual skill who actually move the needle forward and you've done it a company they are now absolutely recognized and all the performative nonsense is sucked out of the system so i think you're right and and that's that is ultimately healthier and it gives everybody a path just work on your skill provide some specific tangible benefit to the company or organization you're working for and then you get all that time back you get ten more hours back a week and you don't have to take a shower if you want to see your kids or your dogs during the day mausletov go for it you start to take a shower don't listen Jason shower twice a day be sure please show please show yeah thank gosh all right listen great job Alex love having you on the show and everybody follow Alex a l e x on the twitter and then for the podcast you're doing are you doing the podcast regularly yeah yeah we do a couple of every week yeah yeah yeah so which what is the name of the podcast that people should subscribe because there's like ten of them over at tech branch yeah it's called equity we've been doing it since uh two thousand seventeen it's uh it's a it's a show if you like startups in vc and bantering about revenue multiples it's the show for you um like because it's it's it i've been honest forever and it's uh just it's how i kind of like digest what's happened during the week and we should have a good time it's about 30 minutes long so it's not too long and perfect good times everybody go to uh your podcast player and search for equity or tech crunch and you'll find it and subscribe we'll see you all next time bye bye

这是对主持人所提到的人才模式的回应，认为真正能推动进步的是那些拥有实际技能的人，而不是那些表演的无用元素。现在公司也已经认识到这些人的价值，所以这样的模式对所有人都更加健康，让每个人都有了通向成功的道路。只要精进自己的技能，并为公司或组织做出具体的贡献，你就能拥有更多时间，例如一周多出10个小时的时间，而且在想见孩子或狗狗的时候也不必担心要洗澡。最后提到主持人要记得洗两次澡，也祝贺对方的出色表现。建议大家关注Alex的Twitter，并订阅他的总部位于科技界的Podcast，名叫Equity，每周会推出几期，时长约30分钟，主要讨论初创企业、风险投资和收入倍数等相关话题。