Markets Are Misreading A Late Cycle Liquidity Crunch | Michael Howell

Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk. We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy. We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:55 Global Liquidity Turning Lower 06:34 Liquidity Cycle vs Economy 11:36 Recession Fears vs Data 15:16 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 18:08 Treasury Stimulus and Buybacks 23:40 Why Bond Volatility Matters 28:26 Ads (Fidelity Crypto) 32:33 Warsh and the Next Regime 39:25 What Interest Rates Really Mean 48:29 Positioning for Turbulence 59:19 Where to Follow Michael FOLLOW MICHAEL › X/Twitter – https://x.com/crossbordercap › Substack – https://capitalwars.substack.com/ FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks SPONSORS › FIDELITY CRYPTO Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC. https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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