Markets Weekly April 18, 2026
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#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
00:40 - Confusing Consumer Data
04:43 - Historic Stock Rally
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www.centralbanking101.com
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https://www.amazon.com/dp/0999136771
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中英文字稿 
你好，我的朋友们。今天是4月18日，欢迎收听本期《市场每周》。好吧，上周发生了很多有趣的事情。有一天，我们解除了封锁，而到了周末，我们似乎正在朝和平协议的方向发展。然而，现在是星期六早晨，看来事情并没有按预期发展，所以我真的不知道正在发生什么。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is April 18th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, so this past week was full of interesting developments. On one day, we blockaded the blockade, and at the end of the week, we were moving towards a peace deal. And now, Saturday morning, it seems like that's not happening, so I really have no idea what's going on.
好的，今天我们首先来讨论一下上周从银行财报中了解到的美国经济状况，以及这些数据与我们获得的更加悲观的质性数据之间的巨大差异。其次，我们来谈谈股市的历史性、疯狂性的上涨，以及为什么我认为这非常令人担忧。好，先从宏观数据开始。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But today, first, let's talk about what we learned from bank earnings reports last week about the state of the U.S. economy and how that contrasts sharply with the much more downbeat qualitative data we're getting. And secondly, let's talk about the historic, historic, crazy rally in the stock market and why I think that's very concerning. All right, starting with the macro data.
所以，正如我们所知，了解美国经济状况的最佳方法之一就是倾听大型银行的意见。每个人都在银行有账户。银行负责监测消费、发放贷款等。因此，他们非常了解消费者和企业的状况。目前，美国最大的银行摩根大通一直在询问这个问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, as we all know, one of the best ways to understand what's going on in the U.S. economy is to listen to what the big banks are saying. Everyone has an account at a bank. Banks monitor spending, make loans, and so forth. So, they really know how the consumer, how businesses are faring. Now, J.P. Morgan, the biggest bank in the U.S., has always asked this question.
这一次，他们的回应基本上和过去几个季度的反应相同。根据他们的说法，他们从多个角度分析了数据后得出结论，美国消费者的基本状况很好。这似乎也得到了美国银行数据的支持，这些数据显示消费者支出确实相当健康。与去年同期相比，我们看到了相当健康的增长。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And this time around, they've responded basically the same way that they've been responding for the past several quarters. According to them, and they looked at this data in many ways, that the U.S. consumer is fundamentally healthy. And this seems to be supported by data from Bank of America that shows that consumer spending really is pretty healthy. On a year-over-year basis, we see pretty healthy growth.
现在，需要注意的一件事当然是油价的上涨。到目前为止，中东局势对美国消费者的最大影响就是油价上涨。你可以从这张图表中看到，油价确实再次飙升到全国平均约4美元。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, one thing worth noting is, of course, the rise in gas prices. The biggest impact from the Middle East on the U.S. consumer so far has been higher gas prices. And you can see from this chart that they've absolutely surged to an average of about $4 again nationwide.
然而，从整体来看，消费者支出依然相当健康。因此，数据确实表明消费者的状况还不错。从更广泛的经济角度来看，令我感到惊讶的是银行业的信贷增长如此强劲。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
However, though, the bigger picture is that consumer spending is still pretty healthy. So, it really does seem that the data suggests that things are okay for the consumer. Zooming out, looking at the banking sector on an economy-wide basis, what's been surprising to me is how strong credit growth has been.
尽管存在这些波动，你可以看到银行仍在大量发放贷款。如果你查看数据，就会发现许多贷款实际上是发放给所谓的非银行金融机构。这些机构可以看作是影子银行，比如抵押贷款公司、私募股权、私人信贷机构，以及汽车贷款公司等。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
You can see that not withstanding all this volatility, banks continue to make lots of loans. Now, if you look into the data, you'll see that a lot of the loans are being made to what's called non-bank financial institutions. And those are just shadow banks, let's say mortgage companies, private equity, private credit, and so forth, auto lending companies.
这更多地反映了美国金融体系结构的变化，银行现在无法像过去那样承担那么多风险。因此，他们会将这些风险分散给其他实体。比如，银行会向一家汽车金融公司提供一笔高度有保障的贷款，然后这家汽车金融公司再向消费者提供贷款。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
That's more of a reflection of a change in the structure of the U.S. financial system, whereas banks are not able to take up as much risk as they used to. So, what they do is they farm it out to these other entities. And so, the bank would make a loan to, say, an auto financing company, the loan would be highly secured, and the auto financing company would then make a loan to a consumer.
因此，这种间接的方式导致消费者的利率稍微高一些，因为多了一个中间商，但这更能保护银行业。因为对于银行来说，贷款的对象不是消费者，而是汽车金融公司，所以多了一层安全保障。到目前为止，各方面情况似乎都还不错。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, this indirect thing makes rates a little bit higher for the consumer because there's an extra middleman, but it protects the banking sector more. Since the banking sector, that loan is not to the consumer, but to the auto financing company, so there's that extra layer of security. And so far, things seem to be okay.
在美国银行的演示中，你可以看到信用表现一直相当强劲。消费者信用表现，与过去十年来看基本一致。商业表现方面也出现了类似的情况。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, in the Bank of America presentation, you can also see that credit performance has been pretty strong. Consumer credit performance, looking at this, has basically been in line with how it's been over the past decade. A similar thing can appear when you see commercial performance as well.
所以，再次来看违约情况、信贷增长和消费者支出，一切看起来老实说完全正常。这真的令人惊讶，因为我们收到的零散数据表明消费者的状况并不好。此外，上个月密歇根大学的消费者信心数据创下了历史最低点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, again, looking at defaults, looking at credit growth, looking at consumer spending, everything seems to be, honestly, totally fine. Which is really surprising because the anecdotal data that we're getting is that the consumer is not doing well. Now, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data printed at all-time lows last month.
因此，现在所有这些（统计）方法都发生了变化，但这与消费者支出的关系并不大。不过，令人惊讶的是，硬数据和软数据之间长期存在如此大的差异。上周查看美联储的“褐皮书”时，有一句话让我印象深刻，那就是美联储辖区报告称，前往食品银行和其他社会服务机构的人数显著增加。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, now, there's been changes in methodology of all this, and this has not correlated very well with consumer spending. But it is surprising to see such a big contrast that has been taking place for some time between the hard and the soft data. Now, looking at the Fed's Beige book last week, a line that really caught my eye was that Fed districts are reporting a notable increase in the number of people going to food banks and other social services.
这句话的意思是：你知道，这两者很难协调。一方面，我们听说很多人过得不好，还有人被解雇等等。但另一方面，确凿的数据却显示情况还不错。这种现象可能部分归因于所谓的“K型经济”。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, you know, it's hard to square the two, whereas, anecdotally, you hear so many people that are not doing well, and you hear people getting fired and so forth. But the hard data, the hard data is just clearly okay. It could be in part due to what people call the K-shaped economy.
但是，你知道，即使“软数据”中出现了明显的恶化，你也应该在“硬数据”中看到一些反映。“K形”结构的上半部分实际上不足以抵消大多数人口的影响。因此，这是一个值得我们留意的有趣问题。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But, you know, even if there were meaningful deterioration that you would see in soft data, you should see some of that in hard data. The upper part of the K is really not enough to overcome the vast majority of the population. So, it's something interesting that we should keep in mind of.
好的，第二件事情当然是我们必须谈论美国股市的历史性上涨。如果你看这张图表，真的很滑稽。现在，3F研究公司的沃伦·派斯做了一个有趣的研究，他在星期三完成的数据显示，当时为期10天的上涨处于历史上标普500指数所有10天回报率的第99百分位，所以这是一个非常大的异常现象。后来，这种上涨势头延续到了星期五，所以我猜我们在过去两周看到的这波上涨可能是标普500历史上最强劲的一次，基本上是直线上升。我真的很难解释为什么会这样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Okay, the second thing, of course, is we have to talk about the historic rally in the U.S. stock market. So, if you look at this chart, it's just comical. Now, so there's interesting work done by Warren Pies of 3F research that shows that, and he did this, I think, on Wednesday. So, at that time, the 10-day rally was in the 99th percentile of all 10-day returns in the history of the S&P 500. So, it was very much an outlier. Now, that rally continued into Friday, and so I'm going to guess that this rally that we've seen over the last two weeks is probably the most aggressive one in the history of S&P 500, just basically going straight up. And, it's really hard for me to explain why that is.
当然，每个人买卖的原因各不相同。其中一个原因是，有很多人实际上是抱有投机心理在市场中进行赌博。现在有一个有趣的数据来自Spot Gamma，显示近期看涨期权的购买量激增。就像我们过去多次看到的那样，很多人开始大量购买看涨期权，这推高了市场。所以，这肯定在这里起到了一定的作用。此外，最近的新闻动态也很积极。就在周五，我们看到了一种类似和平协议的东西，石油市场对此反应非常强烈。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, of course, everyone buys and sells for different reasons. So, one reason is that there really are a lot of people who are basically DGens that are gambling in the market. Now, there's this interesting data from Spot Gamma showing that there's been a surge of call volume buying. So, like we've seen many times in the past, a lot of people go and they buy a lot of calls. That squeezes the market higher. So, that's definitely playing a role here. Now, the news flow has been positive. Now, on Friday, we did have what appears to be some sort of peace deal, and the oil markets reacted very strongly to this.
查看布伦特原油市场价格时（即现货油价），你会发现油价大幅下跌，这是油价首次在一段时间内跌破100美元。然而，如果我们今天早上（星期六）看到的新闻显示和平协议或某种谈判并不像我们想象的那样有保障，这个情况可能会迅速改变。另外值得注意的是，上周我们也关注了一家名为Allbirds的公司，这家公司生产运动鞋，我自己也有几双Allbirds鞋，非常喜欢。Allbirds的鞋子主要是用美利奴羊毛制作的。尽管这家公司过去表现很好，但最近的表现却非常糟糕。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Looking at dated Brent, which is spot oil prices, you can see that it absolutely imploded where spot oil is, for the first time in some time, below $100. That could change very quickly if headlines that we're seeing this morning, Saturday, show that maybe peace deal or some kind of negotiations are not as sure as we would think. Now, one other thing to note is that last week, we also had Allbirds, which is a company that makes sneakers, and I own a few Allbirds sneakers. I really like them. But they make sneakers that are basically made of merino wool. They were a company that did very well in the past, but have basically done very poorly since.
他们的股价反映出情况不佳，看起来几乎要破产了。但Allbirds采取了行动，他们把整个运动鞋业务卖给了其他公司，用这笔资金，再加上一些贷款，转向GPU业务，也就是提供某种云计算和AI计算服务。这个从运动鞋公司转型到购买GPU并租用给他人的商业策略，使他们的股价当天飙升了600%到700%。不过后来股价略有回落。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So, you can see that in their stock price. It looks like they're basically going bankrupt. So, what they did, though, is that Allbirds, they sold all their sneaker business to someone else and are taking the money plus some credit, borrowing some money, and moving to the GPU business where they're going to provide basically some sort of cloud computing, AI computing as a service to people. And that business transition of a sneaker company going to buy GPUs and then farm them out to people led their stock to surge like 600-700% on that day. It's come down a little bit.
但实际上，我认为这告诉我们，市场中确实存在相当程度的投机狂热。市场参与者非常多，很多人都在购买看涨期权，还有这些“迷因股”正在飙升。我们再次处于这样一个投机的时刻，从历史上看，这种情况往往在大幅下跌之前发生。现在，我不知道这会在什么时候发生，但我认为所有条件都已经具备，尤其是，因为根据我的理解，中东的阻滞似乎还没有结束。我们一直在讨论这件事是一个缓慢发展的过程，因为油轮等需要几周时间才能离开中东并抵达目的地。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But really, I think what that tells you is that there really is a large degree of speculative euphoria in the market. You have a large participation in the market. You have a lot of people buying calls. You have these meme stocks surging. We are, again, in one of these speculative moments that, historically speaking, tend to occur before we have very large declines. Now, I don't know when this will happen, but I think all the conditions are set, especially since, from my read, it does seem like this blockage in the Middle East, it's not over yet. Now, we've been talking about how this is a slow-moving thing because it takes several weeks for tankers and so forth to leave the Middle East and arrive at their destination.
尽管这个事件已经发生了好几周，但经济的许多方面尚未充分推动当前这个巨大的"空气泡沫"。显而易见，这对经济的影响首先体现在油价和类似航空燃油等精炼产品上。据石油分析师称，原油市场还有很多缓冲余地。市场上有储存在战略储备中的原油，还有一些浮动原油储存在国外的油轮上。例如，美国一直在给俄罗斯豁免许可，允许他们出售石油，而这些豁免又再次获得了续期。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So even though we had this event happen several weeks ago, a lot of the economy is not yet fully fueling this big, big, big air bubble that's occurring right now. The most obvious part that's being felt, obviously, this is impacting economy, of course, is through oil prices and refined products like jet fuel. So the oil analysts say that for crude oil, there's a lot of cushion in the system. You have barrels that are held in the SPR. You have barrels that are held, floating barrels that are held in tankers abroad. The U.S., for example, has been giving waivers to Russia to allow them to sell oil. Those waivers have been renewed once again.
对于精炼产品，比如航空燃油，储存空间很少，甚至可能没有。因此，航空燃油价格已经在飙升，直接导致供应短缺。世界各地的航空公司纷纷报告价格上涨，比如加收燃油附加费，或者直接取消航班。这就像是席卷全球经济的一场风暴的非常非常非常小的开端。而我们还没讨论像化肥这样的东西。众所周知，如果化肥不足，我们就无法生产足够的食物，但这影响可能要到明年才显现出来。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But for the refined products like jet fuel, there's much less of a storage, if any storage at all. And so you're already seeing jet fuel prices surge and outright shortages. So the airlines across the world are reporting either increases in prices, say fuel surcharges, or outright cancellations. So that is the very, very, very, very tip of this huge air pocket that is moving through the global economy. And that's not even talking about things like fertilizer, as we all know. Fertilizer, if we don't have enough fertilizer, we won't have enough food. But that's not going to show up until, say, next year.
到那时，食品价格将会上涨。宏观经济数据非常明确地表明，将会有不好的事情发生。所有分析此问题的人都一致认为如此。因此，我觉得市场定价、股市的乐观情绪等等，与这种情况很不一致。市场和经济是不同的东西，我们并不总是期望它们同步，有时它们确实严重脱节。但鉴于现在市场上充满了乐观情绪，这让我更加谨慎，这可能不是个好兆头。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And at that time, it will show up in higher food prices. So the macro data is very clear that there is something coming that's not going to be good. And that is basically the unanimous opinion of everyone who looks at this. And so it seems to me that the market pricing, stock market euphoria, and so forth, is very much out of step. Again, the market and the economy are different things. We don't always expect them to be in step. And sometimes they're really, really out of step. But that makes me a lot more cautious, given all the euphoria that we see here, that this may not be very good.
现在，中东地区出现的问题可能会得到解决。一旦新闻恢复正常报道，我认为如果这种情况发生，即使有一些不利因素，市场也会将其视作可以克服的暂时性问题。但如果担忧持续存在，我认为可能会发生几件事情。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, there is a possibility that, you know, this hiccup that we see in the Middle East is just going to be resolved. Straight up from news resumes traffic. And I think if that happens, that we can really, the air pocket, even though it's not good, I think the market will be able to look through this. But if there's still concern about this, then I think a couple of things will happen.
首先，我认为货币政策的立场将发生重大变化。我们在周五听到Waller行长表示，如果“直接的伤害行动”得到解决，他会对此采取宽容态度。因此，我们仍可能会看到降息。而市场基本上也在预测今年有可能出现一定程度的降息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
First is that I think there's going to be a big change in the stance of monetary policy. Now, we heard from Governor Waller on Friday that, you know, if the straight up harm moves is resolved, he's going to be able to look through this. So we could still get rate cuts. And the market is basically pricing in some degree of a rate cut possibility through this year.
但我觉得他也在微妙地暗示，如果这个问题没有解决，而我们因为之前的疫情、关税以及现在的情况而遇到过多的供应冲击，那么他可能无法再忽视这个问题。在这种情况下，可能会出现直接加息的情况。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But he is also, I think, subtly, subtly hinting that if this doesn't resolve and we get too many supply shocks because we already had COVID, we have the tariffs and we have this again, that there is some possibility that he may not be able to look through this. And in that context, it is possible that we could get outright rate hikes.
如果你看一下股市历史上这些亢奋时刻后的表现，刺破泡沫的因素基本上总是高利率。虽然这也许不是因果关系，也许只是相关性，也许它只是起了一定作用，但高利率总会影响泡沫的破裂。你可以从1929年的股市泡沫、互联网泡沫以及2022年的情况中看到这一点。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And if you look at how the stock market behaves historically when we have these euphoric moments, what pops the bubble is basically always, okay, so maybe it's not causation, maybe there's correlation, maybe it plays a role, but higher interest rates always play a role. So you saw that in the 1929 bubble, you saw that in the dot-com bubble, and you saw that in 2022 as well.
所以，较高的利率似乎总是与大泡沫的破裂相对应。如果没有直接恢复对经济有害的行动，这种情况可能会发生。如果在接下来的几个月里，这种有害的行动没有恢复，我们很可能会看到比预期更高的通胀数据。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So higher interest rates, again, seem to always correspond with the popping of the big bubble. So that is a potential possibility if we don't have the straight up harm moves resumed. One thing that would highlight that is that if we don't have the straight up harm moves resume, in the coming months, we will probably get inflation data that is going to be surprisingly high.
如果没有明确的解决方案，央行将无法对此置之不理。我认为我们有一些支持宽松政策的成员，但我认为他们也很难忽视这一点，直到他们能够令人信服地表示，短期内会出现直接的有害变化。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And if we don't have a clear resolution, the central bank will not be able to look through that. I think that we have dovish members, but I think they will have trouble looking through this as well until they can credibly say that the straight up harm moves is going to open in the near term.
这里有一个明确的机制，可能会导致非常明显的负面风险。这是我们应该牢记的。当然，如果风险因素解除且一切正常，我认为就不太清楚究竟是什么会刺破泡沫了，因为在这种情况下，美联储不会加息，可能在年底前还会降息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So there is this clear mechanism here that could act as something that would have very risk negative. So that's something we should we should keep in mind of. And of course, if the straight up harm moves is really open and everything is OK, that I think that it's not as clear to me what could actually pop the bubble, because in that case, the Fed would not be hiking rates and probably be cutting rates by the end of the year.
好的。那么我们就拭目以待吧。我还是觉得现在是一个非常危险的时期。我知道你们中的许多人可能会告诉我，什么事都不会发生，你只是不应该杞人忧天之类的。但是，这种情况在历史上已经反复出现过。我认为我们应该深思熟虑并保持谨慎。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. So we'll see what happens. I continue to think this is a very dangerous time. And I know many of you will tell me that nothing ever happens. You should just, you know, don't be a stupid bear and so forth. But this is something that we've seen over and over again through history. I think we should be thoughtful and that we should be cautious.
好的，今天的内容就准备到这里。非常感谢大家收听。我们下周再见。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right. So that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. I'll talk to you guys next week.