Alex Imas on Why Economists Might Be Getting AI Wrong

Everyone knows that new technologies can be really disruptive to the labor market, but eventually new jobs emerge and things come back into balance. And there is a sense in which many view AI with the same lens. Yes, there will be pain in some sectors, but then there will be productivity gains and new sources of demand and new opportunities for labor that we can't conceive of yet. But could it be different this time? Could AI be disruptive in a manner that, say, the steam engine was not? On this episode we speak with Alex Imas, a professor at the University of Chicago focusing on economics and applied AI. We talk about his work on the AI and labor question, how to think about which jobs may be most at risk, and why the sheer speed of AI development could make it categorically different than prior general purpose technologies that came before it. Chapters: 00:00:00 - Productivity Gains and Worker Benefits 00:06:36 - The Generality Breakthrough 00:09:28 - Modal Economic View on AI Impact 00:11:12 - Beyond Job Exposure Measures 00:14:40 - Task Complementarity and Job Complexity 00:16:08 - Consumer Demand Elasticity 00:18:20 - Scenarios for White-Collar Wipeout 00:20:58 - Most Vulnerable Jobs 00:23:17 - Post-ChatGPT Job Concerns 00:24:53 - New Task Creation and AI Company Data 00:26:34 - Full Automation Scenario 00:28:02 - Economic Structural Change Theory 00:29:29 - Scarcity and Health Focus 00:30:44 - Speed and Public Policy Needs 00:32:29 - Universal Basic ETF Concept 00:32:37 - Marxist Robots Experiment 00:35:23 - AI Memory and Persistence 00:37:03 - Meaning and Identity in Work 00:38:29 - AI Agent Bias and Performance 00:39:27 - Interpreting AI Emotions 00:41:01 - Meta AI Interaction Example 00:41:43 - Methos Model Discussion 00:43:19 - AI Alignment Debate Watch Bloomberg Vodcasts: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MS0Tqk_zQl1LVVTdWuH2Di Watch more Odd Lots episodes: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0OJbRzA6nWybYiThLJd_ouz Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets. Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts Check out more Odd Lots: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MuA6M0zkZyy-99-qc87wKV Get the Odd Lots newsletter: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/oddlots And for all things Odd Lots, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots #Investing #Markets #Finance #Bloomberg #Podcast #OddLots Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video Visit our other YouTube channels: Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg

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