Markets Weekly April 11, 2026
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#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
00:00 - Intro
00:37 - High Inflation Low Sentiment
05:05 - Tough Peace Negotations
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中英文字稿 
你好，我的朋友们。今天是4月11日，欢迎收看《每周市场》。上周的市场真是风云变幻。有一天，美国总统威胁要对伊朗人民进行文明毁灭，而今天，美国副总统J.D. Vance则代表美国在巴基斯坦主持和平谈判。所以，发生了很多事情。今天我们来谈两个话题。首先，我们讨论中东战争如何影响美国的经济数据。其次，我们探讨一下和平谈判可能如何展开。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Hello, my friends. Today is April 11th, and this is Markets Weekly. All right, so last week was a complete whirlwind in markets. On one day, you have the President of the United States threatening civilizational destruction of the Iranian people, and today you have Vice President J.D. Vance leading peace talk negotiations in Pakistan on behalf of the U.S. So a lot has happened. Today, let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about how the war in the Middle East is filtering into U.S. economic data. And secondly, let's talk about how the peace talks could potentially unfold.
好的，从数据开始。众所周知，中东战争时，美国最直接的影响是油价上涨。最近几周，油价经常超过100美元，这导致汽油、航空燃油、柴油等价格上涨。因此，上个月的通胀数据，特别是消费价格指数（CPI）数据，表现强劲。按月来看，CPI数据大幅上升，很大程度上是由于能源价格上涨。然而，如果查看不包括能源价格的核心CPI数据，会发现它的同比增幅相对温和，仅为2.6%。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
All right, starting with the data. So as we all know, when there's war in the Middle East, it most concretely impacts the U.S. through higher oil prices. Now, over the past few weeks, oil has often been trading above $100, and that's led to higher gasoline, higher jet fuel, higher diesel prices, and so forth. So inflation data, CPI data last month was hot. On a month-over-month basis, CPI data surged largely due to high energy prices. However, if you look at core CPI, which excludes energy prices, you can see that it printed at a pretty tame 2.6% year-over-year.
现在，展望未来，我们看到工资持续放缓，租赁市场疲软导致住房通胀，这种通胀表现出减少趋势。因此，有很多顺风因素暗示未来核心消费者物价指数（CPI）将更加温和。但我们为何关心这一点？其实我们并不真正关心CPI，我们关心的是个人消费支出价格指数（PCE），因为美联储关注这个指标。而美联储当然对金融市场有巨大影响。现在，美联储不看CPI，而是看PCE。而实际上，PCE传达了不同的信息。从历史上看，CPI通常高于PCE。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, looking ahead, we have wages that continue to decelerate and a weak rental market leading to shelter inflation, this inflation. And so there's a lot of tailwinds that suggest a more moderate core CPI going forward. But as always, why do we care about this? Well, we don't really care about this. We care about PCE because that's what the Fed cares about. And the Fed, of course, has tremendous impact on financial markets. Now, the Fed does not look at CPI. It looks at PCE. And PCE is honestly telling a different story. Now, historically speaking, CPI is higher than PCE.
最近出现了一个非常有趣的现象，那就是PCE（个人消费支出价格指数）的数据实际上高于CPI（消费者价格指数）。根据克利夫兰联储的预计，核心PCE将达到大约3%。这个3%的水平确实很高。如果是2%的话，可能美联储还能有所放松，但3%的核心PCE就很难被忽视了。因此，目前市场并没有预期今年会有任何降息。即使在最近的美联储会议上，利率预测图中确实指向了一次降息。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
But more recently, you have a very interesting relationship where actually PCE has been printing higher than CPI. Now, PCE, according to the Cleveland Fed, is expected to be about 3% at PCE core. Now, 3%, now that's really high. If it was a two-hand, though, maybe the Fed could kind of stroke their shooters, but a 3% core PC is difficult to ignore. So the market at the moment is not pricing in any rate cuts this year. Even though at the most recent Fed meeting, the Fed's dot plot did guide towards one cut.
上周，我们看到了美联储的会议纪要，其中显示了一些我们实际上可以在当前看到的趋势。大部分美联储官员可能会在能源价格飙升时选择降息。原因是，当汽油价格上涨时，消费者会将更多的钱花在加油上，而减少购买其他商品的支出。这会导致经济疲软，并对失业率产生上升压力。现代的美联储一直以来都更加重视就业而非通货膨胀。但即便如此，仍然有相当一部分美联储官员担心通胀，他们甚至可能会考虑加息。但是，这种情况不太可能发生。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, we got the Fed minutes last week, and it's showing something that we kind of see playing out in real time. So most people at the Fed would actually be cutting rates in the face of an energy price spike. The reason being that as gasoline prices spike, consumers will spend more of their money at the pump, less buying other things. So that's economic weakness that puts upward pressure on the unemployment rates. The modern Fed has always prioritized employment over inflation. That being said, there is a sizable minority of people at the Fed who are concerned about inflation, and would even be hiking rates. Guys, that's not going to happen.
我们都知道这些人是谁。他们是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中没有影响力的新任美联储主席。现在，中东的战争也影响了消费者情绪。消费者情绪降到了数十年来的低点。消费者的心情不好。也许他们担心人工智能会取代他们的工作，可能也在关注中东的战争，或者担心高油价。不管怎样，消费者的心情都不太好。这表明对经济的信心减弱，可能会减少消费，这意味着未来几个月经济可能会出现疲软。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And we all know who these people are. They are the newer Fed presidents who are not influential on the FOMC. Now, the war in the Middle East is also feeding into consumer sentiment. Consumer sentiment has dropped to multi-decade lows. The consumer is not feeling good. Maybe they're looking at AI replacing their jobs. They're looking at the war in the Middle East, maybe looking at high gasoline prices. In any case, the consumer is not feeling good. That suggests weaker confidence in the economy, maybe less consumption, and suggests potentially economic weakness in the months ahead.
这当然也影响到了特朗普政府的政治前景。目前，Polymarket网站显示，民主党在中期选举中全面胜出的可能性超过50%。这对总统来说非常不利，因为如果民主党控制了国会两院，将会出现无休止的调查，甚至可能会有人入狱。总统已经向他的员工承诺，他会赦免他们所有人。我们拭目以待接下来会发生什么。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
This is also, of course, impacting the political prospects of the Trump administration. Polymarket is now suggesting there's a better than even chance that we could have a Democratic sweep at the midterm elections. That would be very bad for the president, because if the Democrats control both houses of Congress, you're going to have nonstop investigations, and maybe some people will go to prison. The president has already promised his staff that he's going to pardon all of them. So we'll see what happens then.
现在，美国经济数据中已经可以看到经济损失，但在外国，这种影响会更加明显。毕竟，美国本身也是一个大型的石油生产国。在国外，尤其是欧洲，航空公司距离耗尽航空燃料仅有数周的时间。如果这种情况发生，他们将不得不取消航班或者大幅涨价，对于一些依赖旅游业的经济体来说，影响非常糟糕。在爱尔兰，抗议活动已经出现，许多人对价格飙升感到不满，甚至有些加油站已经没有油可供了。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, the economic damage is visible in the U.S. economic data, but of course, it's going to be much more pronounced abroad. The U.S., of course, is ultimately also a large producer of oil. So what we see abroad is that in Europe, the airlines are just weeks away from running out of jet fuel. And if that were to happen, they're going to have to cancel flights, monstrously raise prices. It's going to have a very bad impact on some of the more tourist-driven economies. In Ireland, you already have protests where many people are very unhappy about the surges in prices, and it seems like some stations are even dry.
霍尔木兹海峡关闭所带来的经济影响确实正在逐步到来。虽然这个过程很缓慢，但它确实正在逼近。当这一影响显现时，将令市场上许多人感到意外，而这也是为何解决此冲突迫在眉睫的原因之一。现在，许多报道也显示，中东的这场冲突让特朗普政府感到意外。他们原以为只要轰炸伊朗，问题就会像委内瑞拉那样迅速解决。但是，他们严重误判了局势，没想到伊朗会关闭霍尔木兹海峡，结果自己被困在这个泥潭中。各位，这里并没有什么高深的计谋，只是一些重要人物做了愚蠢的事，这种情况经常发生。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the economic impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closing, it is coming. It's slow, but it is definitely coming. And I think when it comes, it's going to surprise a lot of people in the market, which is part of the reason why there's such urgency for this conflict to end, which leads us to our second topic. Now, by all accounts, a lot of reporting on this, this conflict in the Middle East surprised the Trump administration. They thought they would just bomb Iran and then it would be over, similar to like Venezuela. They were caught off guard, gravely, gravely miscalculated that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz and accidentally got stuck in this quagmire. Guys, there is no 3-D chest here. It's just the same old thing, important people doing stupid things. It happens all the time.
据多方报道，这些谈判主要是应美国的要求进行的，美国急于摆脱当前的困境。现在，巴基斯坦总理在社交媒体X上的一则非常有趣的帖子被记者Ryan Grimcott注意到。在这条帖子中，巴基斯坦总理谈到了和平谈判，但他发布的第一条信息的顶部实际上标注了“草稿”，然后才是总理的发言。很明显，这可能是美国提供给他的。因此，美国在幕后与巴基斯坦总理协调，指导他说些什么，以便推动和平谈判的进行。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So these negotiations seem, by much reporting suggests, are largely on the behest of the U.S., which is eager to get out of this quagmire. Now, there's this very interesting post from the Prime Minister of Pakistan on X that reporter Ryan Grimcott. You can see that this is a post where the Prime Minister of Pakistan is talking about peace talk negotiations, but the first post that he gave actually had draft at the top and then a post from Prime Minister of Pakistan. Very clearly, this was given to him probably by the U.S. So the U.S. is behind the scenes choreographing with Pakistan Prime Minister, telling him what to say so that we can get these peace talk negotiations going.
现在，需要明确的是，这些谈判将会非常困难，因为各方之间缺乏信任。此前，伊朗与奥巴马政府达成了一项协议，称为《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）。根据该协议，伊朗同意对其铀项目进行严格监控，而作为交换，制裁将有所缓解。据悉，伊朗在JCPOA框架下履行了其责任，但特朗普政府单方面撕毁了该协议。去年六月，当伊朗与美国进行谈判时，以色列在美国的支持下对伊朗进行了攻击。今年二月，伊朗继续进行谈判，但就在第二艘航空母舰到达之后，美国对伊朗发动了攻击。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, just to be clear, these are going to be very difficult negotiations because there's not a lot of good faith among the parties. Now, Iran had an agreement with the Obama administration called the JCPOA, where Iran would agree to rigorous monitoring of its uranium program in exchange to receive some degree of relief in sanctions. Now, by all accounts, Iran faithfully carried out its duties under the JCPOA, but the Trump administration unilaterally tore that agreement apart. Then last June, when Iran was in negotiations with the U.S., they were attacked by Israel with the support of the U.S. Now, in February, Iran continued to have negotiations, and as soon as that second aircraft carrier got into position, the U.S. attacked Iran.
所以，事情的经过是这样的：伊朗与美国和以色列的谈判一直以来都是表面功夫，其实是个幌子，其真正目的是为美国和以色列争取时间进行重新武装。即便是今天在巴基斯坦进行的谈判，我们也收到报告称有更多的军事力量正在被调往中东。第三艘航空母舰正在赶往该地区。所以这些谈判可能实际上只是为了拖延时间，让美国能将另一艘航母部署到位并继续其攻击行动。这就是这些讨论的背景。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So the history is that these negotiations that Iran has held with the U.S. and Israel have always been fake, they've always just basically been a ruse to give Iran, to give the U.S. and Israel time to rearm. And even as these negotiations take place today in Pakistan, we have reports that there are more military assets being moved into the Middle East. There's a third aircraft carrier on the way. So it's possible that these negotiations could really just be to buy time so that the U.S. can get another aircraft carrier in position and continue its attacks. So that's the context for these discussions.
为了思考这些讨论可能如何展开，我认为从桌上每个人的角度来看是有帮助的。记住，桌上有三个人。从美国的角度来看，没有人真正知道美国在那里做什么。这是一场非常不受欢迎的战争，并且让总统付出了巨大的政治代价，不仅仅是在我们刚才展示的经济数据上，而且许多来自MAGA运动的人，比如塔克、亚历克斯·琼斯和梅根·凯利，这些曾经坚定支持总统的人，现在开始与他分道扬镳。这让总统失去了政治支持，而目前还不清楚这战争对总统到底有什么帮助。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in order to think about how these discussions could play out, I think it's useful to think about it from each, from the perspective of each of the people at the table. Remember, there are three people at the table. From the U.S.'s perspective, you know, again, no one knows what the U.S. is doing there. It's a very unpopular war. And it's costing the president significant political capital, not just in the economic data we've just shown you, but a lot of people in MAGA, from Tucker, from Alex Jones, from Megyn Kelly. These are people that were staunch supporters of the president and are now splitting with, uh, just not against moving away from him. So it's costing the president political support and it's really not clear how it's been helping the president.
我猜美国希望能够撤出，希望油价能够回落，但他们也不愿意让伊朗取得胜利。换句话说，他们不想让伊朗在地区事务或行动上占据主导地位，因为那从美国的战略角度来看，将是一个非常明显的失败。从以色列的角度来看，这场战争在以色列非常受欢迎，而且摧毁伊朗一直是总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡整个政治生涯的梦想。需要注意的是，今年以色列有选举。因此，继续这场战争，甚至可能摧毁伊朗，似乎符合总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的利益。我认为这对他来说将是一个巨大的政治胜利。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So I'm guessing that the U.S. would like to get out, hopefully let oil prices come back down, but also they are reluctant to leave Iran with a win. That is to say, retaining control of the street or for moves, because that would be a very clear defeat, uh, from, from, from a U.S. strategic viewpoint. From Israel's viewpoint, again, this war is very popular in Israel and it's been Prime Minister Benjamin Yahu's dream, his entire dream for, for his entire political career to destroy Iran. And one thing to note, there are elections in Israel this year. And so it seems like it's in President Benjamin, Prime Minister Benjamin Yatu's interest to continue this war and maybe even destroy Iran. That would be, I think, a huge, huge political victory for him.
从伊朗的角度来看，他们已经通过一个包含十个要点的谈判计划告诉我们他们的需求。首先，他们不想再受到美国和以色列的攻击，因此希望获得安全保障。但是，这对他们来说非常困难，因为即使特朗普总统可能承诺这一点，他们也无法约束以色列的行为，所以实现这种保障不太明确。此外，伊朗当然也希望继续控制他们已经拥有的资源，这让他们能够掌控世界20%的石油，这是他们希望保持的新权力。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
From Iran's perspective, well, they've already told us through their 10 point negotiation, uh, plan, what they want. First and foremost, they don't want to be attacked by the U.S. and Israel anymore. So they're looking for security guarantees. Uh, that's very, very difficult to, for them to get because, you know, maybe, maybe the president Trump could commit to this, but then they don't really, uh, are not able to restrain Israel. So it's not really clear how that could happen. They around would also, of course, like to retain control over street or for moves, which, um, you know, they have, which is now giving them control over 20% of the world's oil. That's some newfound power that they would like to keep.
如果情况维持不变，伊朗实际上就像在收取200万美元的通行费，从中获利。可能再过几个月，他们就能成功进行核试验，成为拥有核能力的国家，并通过控制来稳固其地区霸主的地位。因此，他们在谈判中拥有相当大的筹码。目前他们失去了很多领导层，工业能力也遭到了严重削弱，但最终，美国和以色列其实没有军事手段可以重新夺回霍尔木兹海峡的控制权。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
Now, if things were to remain as they are today, then Iran would basically be charging, let's say a $2 million toll, making money. And maybe in a few months, they could have a successful nuclear test. They could become a nuclear power with control restraint of the moves that would cement their status as a regional edge mom. So they do come into this, uh, into this negotiation with a lot of leverage. Now they've lost a lot of leadership. Their industrial capacity has been severely degraded, but at the end of the day, there's really no military solution for the U.S. and Israel to retake the Strait of Hormuz.
他们有可能会用核武器炸整个国家，也有可能派出五十万军队来夺回或征服伊朗。但我认为这些都是不太可能的情况。顺便提一下，我一直在讨论和担心伊朗可能遭受核攻击的风险。不过，升级博客的帕普教授在他最近的一次演讲中谈到了这个问题。他认为我们不必特别担心核升级。他的观点是，如果对伊朗实施核攻击，核辐射的扩散将难以控制，因为辐射可能会随着天气和风向随意飘散。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
It's possible they could just nuke the entire country. It's possible that they could send half a million troops, uh, to retake, uh, to conquer Iran. But those are, I think, unlikely scenarios. As a side note, I've been talking about and worrying about a potential nuclear attack on Iran. Now, Professor Pape of the escalation blog, uh, addressed this point in one of his recent talks. And he thinks that it's, he's not really worried about a nuclear escalation. His thinking is that, uh, if there is a nuclear attack on Iran, the fallout would be very difficult to control in the sense that the nuclear fallout could drift where the weather, whatever the wind blows it.
你可以很容易地想象这样一种情况：核尘可能会被吹到海湾盟国，或者甚至吹到以色列。因此，进行核战争对任何人都没有好处，因为这会伤害到所有人。然而，我也注意到，像杰拉尔德·谢维尔这样的一些核专家认为，如果在空中而不是地面引爆核武器，核尘的影响会比较有限。因此，这可能成为这些国家在不必担心核尘吹回自己国家的情况下使用核武器的方法。不管怎样，目前还不清楚事情将如何发展。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And you could easily have a scenario where the fallout is blown to say Gulf allies, or maybe even blown, uh, towards Israel. So you could have a, so it's kind of not in anyone's interest to have this nuclear war because it's going to hurt everyone. However, I will also note that there are other nuclear experts like Gerald Chevrier, who, who thinks that if you detonate a nuke, not on the ground, but in air, the nuclear fallout is limited. And so that could be a way to, uh, for these countries to deploy nukes without having to worry about fallout being blown back towards, towards their own countries. So anyway, not sure how that will play out.
所以，总之，彭博社在这张图表中列出了伊朗希望的10个要点。你可以看到，即使美国愿意在其中一些方面进行谈判，但这些要点与以色列的立场截然相反，以色列几乎不愿意在很多问题上进行妥协。所以，目前还不清楚这些谈判最终会如何进行。这将会是一个非常艰难的谈判。即便如此，市场已经在欢呼，就好像协议已经达成了一样。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in any case, there's Bloomberg laying down, uh, in this graph, the 10 points that Iran would like, and you can see that even though the U.S. is willing to, you know, maybe negotiate around some of them, uh, it, they're in stark contrast with Israel, which is, which is not willing to negotiate on very many of them. So, uh, it's not clear how these negotiations would ultimately take place. It's, it's going to be a very difficult negotiation. And the markets are already cheering this as if it were a done deal.
我们可以看到，当宣布谈判席位或停火的时候，市场几乎是直线上升。这情形就像是在重演“解放日”。我不确定这是否是个正确的举动，因为说到底，霍尔木兹海峡仍然关闭。正如我们之前讨论的，损害仍在缓慢但肯定地传递到经济系统中。无论接下来发生什么，这肯定会重塑全球格局。我们学到的一件事是，海湾谷地和海湾国家，比如沙特阿拉伯等，他们了解到美国无法保证他们的安全。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And we can see that the moment that the seat, the negotiations or the ceasefire were announced, the markets basically went vertical. It's almost as if they were replaying Liberation Day. I'm not sure that's the right move because at the end of the day, the street of Hormuz is still closed. And as we discussed earlier, the damage is still filtering through the economic system slowly, but surely. Now, whatever happens, so this is definitely going to remake the global map. One thing that we've learned is that the Gulf Valley, the Gulf States, like Saudi Arabia and so forth, they learned that the U.S. cannot guarantee their security.
所以最终，他们不得不对伊朗更友好一些，因为伊朗随时可以打击他们的生产能力。我知道有些人认为这是一场与中国的三维棋局。但实际上，在这种情况下，中国看起来是赢家之一。中国在促使伊朗回到谈判桌上起到了作用。而如果你查看美国的国家安全战略，很明显，美国不再把中国视为他们的重要全球对手了，对吧？
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And so at the end of the day, they're going to have to be nicer to Iran because Iran can still strike their production capacity whenever they want. I know that there are some people who continue to think that this is some kind of 3D chess game with China. But honestly, China looks like it's going to be one of the winners in this scenario. China played a role in getting Iran to the table. And if you look at the U.S.'s national security strategy, it's very clear that the U.S. no longer is treating China as like their great global rival, right?
《华尔街日报》有报道称，特朗普政府似乎正在将许多对华鹰派人士从政府中移除，并转向对中国采取更和解的态度。如果你对美国的军工供应链有所了解，就会注意到它们在很大程度上依赖于中国产的零部件。因此，当你无法在没有中国帮助的情况下制造导弹时，与中国进行这样的全球性竞争实际上毫无意义。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So there's reporting in the Wall Street Journal that suggests that the Trump administration is kind of getting rid of a lot of China hawks in the administration and moving towards more of a conciliatory tone with China. Now, if you know anything about the military supply chains in the U.S., you'll notice that they're heavily dependent upon Chinese components. So there really is no point in having this great global rivalry with China when, you know, you can't even make missiles without Chinese help.
看起来，这实际上就是我们去年讨论过的国家安全文件中所描述的相同策略：我们将迎来一个多极世界。在这个世界中，美国和中国各自拥有自己的影响范围。我们可以相互贸易，也可以竞争，但这并不是那种激烈的对抗关系。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So it's looking like really the same strategy that's laid out in a national security document we talked about last year where we're going to have a multipolar world where, you know, the U.S. has their sphere of influence and the China has theirs. We can trade with each other. We can compete. But it's not some kind of great rivalry here.
所以无论如何，这将是激动人心的一周。我不知道结果会怎样。但是，如果石油供应没有恢复的话，我相信我们会面临一场全球范围的严重经济衰退，某些地区可能甚至会陷入经济萧条。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
So in any case, it's going to be an exciting week. I have no idea how this turns out. If we don't have some kind of resumption in oil flow, though, I do believe we will have a global, deep global recession, maybe a depression in some parts of the world.
最终，这将会反映在金融市场中。好了，今天的内容就准备到这里。下周再和大家聊。
▶ 英文原文 ⏱
And eventually that will be reflected in financial markets. All right. So that's all prepared for today. Talk to you guys next week.